2012 Tuesday: What, exactly, can Obama do to win tonight?
By now, everyone acknowledges the first debate between President Obama and Mitt Romney altered the course of this election.
On the day of the debate, Obama led Romney by 3.1 percentage points in the Real Clear Politics average of national opinion polls. Romney took his first lead against Obama six days later and has been no worse than tied for the past week; the two are in a statistical tie at the moment. More important, Romney has closed the gap or taken the lead in the crucial swing states and even put formerly Obama-leaning states Michigan, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania back in play. Today, for the first time, Romney even leads Obama in the RCP average of favorable/unfavorable polls: On average, the former Massachusetts governor is seen favorably by almost 50 percent of voters and has a net favorability rating of +5.4 percentage points — both figures are the highest of the entire presidential campaign for him — while Obama is at 51 percent and +5 percentage points. In four of the past six major polls, Romney’s net favorability is higher than Obama’s.
NBC News’ Chuck Todd has gone so far as to declare a “structural shift” in the race in Romney’s direction; it’s no longer Obama’s election to lose. So, what can Obama do in tonight’s town hall-style debate to regain the momentum?
Unfortunately for Obama supporters, I don’t think it’s going to be very easy.
Much of the commentary about the first debate focused on Obama’s listlessness and lack of aggressiveness. And that’s true as far as it goes. But Obama didn’t just lose the debate; Romney won it. After the Obama campaign spent months and tens (if not hundreds) of millions of dollars portraying Romney as a cold extremist, Romney gave a very different impression to many voters giving him a hard look for the first time. He was personable, confident, energetic and sounded very reasonable. Obama’s poor performance made the turnaround sharper than it might have been, but Romney earned a re-evaluation from voters on his own.
There’s little Obama can do about that. He can try to rattle or bait Romney into saying something that would put off viewers, as Joe Biden clearly tried to do with Paul Ryan in their vice presidential debate last week. But it didn’t work with Ryan, and it’s unlikely to work with Romney, a more seasoned debater who made some of those mistakes early in the primary-debate season but has become more disciplined since then. The town-hall format, in which — strangely — the rivals are not supposed to engage one another directly, will also make that task more difficult.
That format also inherently makes it harder for Obama to show the aggressiveness he didn’t display in the first debate. The point is for the candidates to engage the audience, and it takes some fine maneuvering to do that while also going after one’s opponent. Not to mention that everyone is expecting more aggressiveness from Obama in this debate precisely because it was so obviously lacking last time. Remember what I wrote last week about expectations? Well, that same principle means it’s going to be hard for Obama to meet those expectations of aggressiveness with everyone watching for it, and without going overboard a la the laughing, smirking, interrupting Biden last week.
Obama can try to go after Romney’s credibility. But Romney parried those attacks well last time and, in last week’s VP debate, got a preview of the policy areas in which the Obama team thinks Romney is vulnerable on the facts; he ought to be ready for those. If there’s a secret line of attack the Obama campaign has been sitting on, tonight is the night to bring it out.
What’s more, the past 24 hours have given Romney new ways to dent Obama’s own credibility: Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s shouldering of the blame Monday for the lethally inadequate security at the U.S. consulate in Benghazi last month is a far cry from Obama’s 2008 statement — standing next to Clinton, no less — that he would be responsible for security matters. (Not to mention Clinton didn’t take responsibility for Obama’s inaccurate statements about why the attack happened.) There’s also the fresh bankruptcy of a manufacturer of batteries for electric cars that received a federal grant of almost $250 million in 2009 — another example of Obama’s “picking the losers,” as Romney put it in the last debate, rather than creating the 5 million green jobs he promised during, ahem, the 2008 town hall debate.
What we have, then, is a situation in which the Obama campaign tried to win the election by making it a contest of two personalities — and now faces a situation where its portrayal of Romney has been blown, and time is running out to persuade voters that caricature was correct after all.
(Note: I’ll once again be live-blogging the debate tonight, so look for a fresh post later today where you can follow the face-off with me and other readers.)
– By Kyle Wingfield
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238 comments Add your comment
Lambeau
October 16th, 2012
3:54 pm
Beat me to it Tiberius and others. Thanks for helping me out. I learned how it feels to erroniously be called a liar so I recant my statements early and wish I could have stated them more gracefully.
Common Sense
October 16th, 2012
3:55 pm
Think Barry has ever been behind in a race this late in the game?
And make no mistake he’s behind….
You’ll see the desperation on display this evening.
JamVet
October 16th, 2012
4:01 pm
And make no mistake he’s behind….
BWAHAHAHAHA!!! BWAHAHAHAHA!!! BWAHAHAHAHA!!!
This just in from The Georgia Neocon Sports Network!
UGA tops latest BCS standings! Auburn three points back and Alabama falls to a disappointing 7th place…
Dusty
October 16th, 2012
4:02 pm
Mark V
When one approves of the president almost 100% then I am sure they are wearing “rose colored glasses”.
Opinions are formed from so many sources that verification of every thought would be impossible. I read many things and not all are absolutely correct. Neither are they all wrong usually. Even “facts” are not always reliable.
Therefore I make most judgments from my own experience. Don’t you?
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
October 16th, 2012
4:13 pm
Whatever AmVet is on, I want some.
Must be nice to check out of reality every now and again.
Darwin
October 16th, 2012
4:15 pm
Yeah, you Obama bashers are brainiacs if there ever were. Sandwiched right between the braniacs in Alabama and South Carolina.
Georgia
October 16th, 2012
4:20 pm
mmmm sandwiches
JamVet
October 16th, 2012
4:21 pm
Tibby, you want what I have but can neither afford it nor do you even want to pay for it.
So be miserable – it works for you!
The bottom line, go mooch elsewhere, you 47%er!
Dusty
October 16th, 2012
4:21 pm
Darwin,
Your view of evolution is incorrect. You have not evolved. I think you are sandwiched between Detroit and Chicago.
iggy
October 16th, 2012
4:22 pm
In SC they are called Sanniches
In AL they are called Sammiches
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
October 16th, 2012
4:23 pm
Amazing that the polls are so accurate when Obama was in a solid lead, but are suddenly dismissed by Obama supporters when they don’t trend his way.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
October 16th, 2012
4:23 pm
“So be miserable – it works for you!”
Pot – Meet Kettle!
Centrist
October 16th, 2012
4:26 pm
@ Darwin – What about the majority of “brainiacs” west to east in Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, Arizona, North and South Dakota, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas, Missouri, Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana, Indiana, Tennessee, and North Carolina? Pretty big hoagie.
Centrist
October 16th, 2012
4:30 pm
And I left out Kentucky and West Virginia from that hoagie.
Dusty
October 16th, 2012
4:34 pm
Hillbilly D
So you think I might like Mark Bowden’s book “The Finish…”?
To tell the truth, I’ve been reading some books I call “little lady books” which were being passed around by friends at church. The plots were so NICE with sweet endings that I am ready for something with a little more errr…..vigor!!
adam smith's invisible hand
October 16th, 2012
4:37 pm
I’d say Obama ought to just turn it into a national referendum on a woman’s right to have access to birth control. I guess Romney could hem and haw his way around his multiple personality disorder on this (and almost every other) issue, but, at the end of the day, his handlers, advisors and backers want him to back the official policy of the Catholic Church, If most voting Americans favor that, then so be it
I demand to see Cheesy Grits Birth Certificate- Long Form Please
October 16th, 2012
4:38 pm
And make no mistake he’s behind….
If you look at the electoral college.
Obama is still comfortably ahead.
Cheesy Grits must win almost all the toss ups.
Obama needs only to pick off one or two and he has an insurmountable EC lead.
Obama wins Ohio for instance and its over.
I demand to see Cheesy Grits Birth Certificate- Long Form Please
October 16th, 2012
4:40 pm
Amazing that the polls are so accurate when Obama was in a solid lead, but are suddenly dismissed by Obama supporters when they don’t trend his way.
Amazing that so many are hailing the polls now but when Obama was ahead they were all part of a “media bias” or some sort of liberal conspiracy.
I demand to see Cheesy Grits Birth Certificate- Long Form Please
October 16th, 2012
4:41 pm
Yeah, you Obama bashers are brainiacs if there ever were.
The lower the education level. The redder the state.
You can see it played out right here almost every day.
Centrist
October 16th, 2012
4:42 pm
At adam smith’s – Woman already have access to birth control, and a very reasonable cost.
Oh wait – you mean “free”. Why stop with birth control – why not bras, make-up, hairdos, nailcare, cellphones, etc.?
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
October 16th, 2012
4:43 pm
“Amazing that so many are hailing the polls now but when Obama was ahead they were all part of a “media bias” or some sort of liberal conspiracy.”
When your polling predicts a 9%-10% over-vote for Democrats, when none has ever existed, the claim of a media bias becomes very real, Cheesy.
adam smith's invisible hand
October 16th, 2012
4:45 pm
Tiberius – do you know what an over-vote is or how polls are adjusted to account for weaknesses in how the polls were conducted?
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
October 16th, 2012
4:45 pm
“I’d say Obama ought to just turn it into a national referendum on a woman’s right to have access to birth control.”
So you’re saying Obama has to lie to try to get a win on Romney, Adam Smith?
“Cause there’s no ticket denying access to birth control for women.
I demand to see Cheesy Grits Birth Certificate- Long Form Please
October 16th, 2012
4:48 pm
Oh wait – you mean “free”. Why stop with birth control – why not bras, make-up, hairdos, nailcare, cellphones, etc.?
A: Because poor people dont need those items to stop unwanted pregnancies.
Dusty
October 16th, 2012
4:49 pm
Uh OH,
I think Cheesy Grits just dealt adam smith’s invisible hand which means Gravy is not far behind. Must be a change of shift at DNC.
See ya later. Have fun at the debate. No whooping and hollering now….
.
BW
October 16th, 2012
4:50 pm
Kyle
The entire blog topic suggests that the President cannot easily if at all change the trajectory of the race. I will say that I want to see the final polls after this is over because alot of them are way off so close to the election. Also I will acknowldge that Romney did much better with his conviction and energy in the first debate but for the race to shift so dramatically suggests either some polling deficiencies or people who were for Obama were very squishy to begin with, which means that people identifying as Democrats have converted to Republicans over one debate….either way it will interesting to see which pollster did the most accurate polls throughout.
Kyle Wingfield
October 16th, 2012
4:50 pm
Cheesy @ 4:38: Actually, per RCP, Obama has only 201 EVs from states listed as “leans,” “likely” or “solid” for him. Romney has 191.
Add toss-up states where either candidate currently leads by 5+ points on average, and it’s Obama 221, Romney 191.
Add toss-up states where either candidate currently leads by 4+ points, and it’s Obama 237, Romney 206.
For Obama to get above 270, you have to add all the states where his lead is currently in the 2’s, i.e. well within the margin of error.
If that’s what you consider “comfortable” …
As for your 4:40: What we have now is more of a range of predictions as to what the electorate will really look like. The pollsters are finally starting to lay their cards on the table in terms of what they really think is going to happen. As a result, they’re showing a tighter race. This is not rocket science.
I demand to see Cheesy Grits Birth Certificate- Long Form Please
October 16th, 2012
4:50 pm
Tiberius – do you know what an over-vote is or how polls are adjusted to account for weaknesses in how the polls were conducted?
A: No she doesn’t. She is just parroting what she has heard on Fox News etc.
Hillbilly D
October 16th, 2012
4:51 pm
The only poll that matters is the first Tuesday in November. The rest are just wonkery.
Kyle Wingfield
October 16th, 2012
4:52 pm
BW @ 4:50: “The entire blog topic suggests that the President cannot easily if at all change the trajectory of the race.”
No, it suggests he will have a hard time doing so in tonight’s debate. And that, if he can’t, he is running out of time to do it in other ways.
I demand to see Cheesy Grits Birth Certificate- Long Form Please
October 16th, 2012
4:55 pm
For Obama to get above 270, you have to add all the states where his lead is currently in the 2’s, i.e. well within the margin of error.
If that’s what you consider “comfortable” …
Yes but id rather be the guy ahead. And he is ahead in EC.
Thats why I said he was ahead and Why everything I said was true.
If Obama wins Ohio its over.
As for your 4:40: What we have now is more of a range of predictions as to what the electorate will really look like. The pollsters are finally starting to lay their cards on the table in terms of what they really think is going to happen. As a result, they’re showing a tighter race. This is not rocket science.
Aha. So Obama really never was ahead.
That must mean the Romney debate really didn’t move the polls that much.
They just started polling the right people.
Which one is it ?
Centrist
October 16th, 2012
4:58 pm
@ Cheesy – Did you miss the part about birth control being cheap? The poor have food stamps, medicaid, TANF, WIC, SSI, free school meals, free cell phones, and checks via the EIC. A few less desserts from their gifted income sources might be in order for a slight copay for birth control.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
October 16th, 2012
4:59 pm
“do you know what an over-vote is or how polls are adjusted to account for weaknesses in how the polls were conducted?”
Yes.
Do you?
Thus ends another episode of “Short answers to stupid questions”.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
October 16th, 2012
5:00 pm
“Because poor people dont need those items to stop unwanted pregnancies.”
Oh, I see. Personal responsibility is no longer required, Cheesy?
How about “Just say NO?”
I demand to see Cheesy Grits Birth Certificate- Long Form Please
October 16th, 2012
5:01 pm
Its kind of like Romney position on Abortion isn’t it.
On one hand he tells groups he wont do anything to overturn Rowe vs Wade.
Then he tells another group Why yes he certainly will appoint SC justices to overturn Rowe vs Wade.
When people walk into that booth to vote. Not knowing who Romney even is will end up costing him.
They may not like Obama. But at least they know what they are getting.
With Romney…. who the he77 knows?????
I demand to see Cheesy Grits Birth Certificate- Long Form Please
October 16th, 2012
5:03 pm
Oh, I see. Personal responsibility is no longer required, Cheesy?
How about “Just say NO?”
Unfortunately I live in the real world where adults have sex.
Republicans are big on stopping Abortions but not real big on something that would stop a ton of them.
Free birth control.
I demand to see Cheesy Grits Birth Certificate- Long Form Please
October 16th, 2012
5:05 pm
@ Cheesy – Did you miss the part about birth control being cheap? The poor have food stamps, medicaid, TANF, WIC, SSI, free school meals, free cell phones, and checks via the EIC. A few less desserts from their gifted income sources might be in order for a slight copay for birth control.
Most poor people I know work two or three jobs and squeeze every penny. They dont want anything from the government.
You should try it. Would give you a whole new perspective.
TRUTH
October 16th, 2012
5:07 pm
OK, Kyle and the rest of you R’s… President Obama looked tired and definitely was not on his game at the last debate. Equally, Mitt, looked and sounded convincing, but was still lying through his teeth. His tax plan is still without detail, his budget (or Ryan’s budget) has been thoroughly rebuked, but I guess a convincing blatant lie defines the GOP these days. (Talk about marching off a cliff…).
Tonite I believe THE President will be back on his game and it will be curtains for the Mittster and the Youngster. Biden chomped on him and hurt him pretty bad. Still no details from the Youngster. (Funny, its almost as if Ryan has become a non-factor…).
Basically, I think the GOP ticket is a wreck and would be a disaster for America.
BW
October 16th, 2012
5:07 pm
Kyle
Again I want to see the final polls in this one. Something isn’t right. I simply cannot believe that the methodolgy that produced those leads for Obama pre-debate would show a toss-up now. Why would voters change their minds so decisively rather than say they were undecided pre-debate? Are they simply lying to the pollster? I figured on a tight race but with the polarization of the electorate we keep hearing about something doesn’t add up as the people’s vote should not IMO be this malleable. If Romney is truly winning I don’t have an issue with so much as I have an issue of which polls are being used to produce the tilt of the horse race.
Centrist
October 16th, 2012
5:07 pm
@ Cheesy – I agree with you that Romney must win Ohio. And Florida, Virginia, and Colorado. Tough hill to climb in 3 weeks – but not insurmountable with the trend and turnout enthusiasm differential.
Good bet that the election results will not be known until Wednesday afternoon – or later if we have contested recounts.
I demand to see Cheesy Grits Birth Certificate- Long Form Please
October 16th, 2012
5:09 pm
Well ive sufficiently shut the wingnuts up for a minute.
They will be back with more nonsense shortly.
Stay tuned.
MarkV
October 16th, 2012
5:11 pm
Lambeau @ 3:51 pm: “That is what we saw play out the last two weeks, as a crude and disgusting video sparked outrage throughout the Muslim world…” “There are no words that excuse the killing of innocents. There is no video that justifies an attack on an Embassy…”
Lambeau,
Please show me in the above words, where Obama said that the attack on the consulate in Benghazi was in response the video and not a terrorist attack. I hope you remember that the EMBASSY in Cairo was subjected to an attack that was a response to the video. When you are accusing the President of lying to the people, then you better have words that show a lie. You have failed to do that.
Kyle Wingfield
October 16th, 2012
5:12 pm
Cheesy: (Sighing) You really don’t get how this works, do you?
There are multiple ways for a candidate to win an actual race. One is to get more of his own base to show up at the polls. Another is to persuade more independent/undecided voters to vote for him. Polling is the art — not science — of figuring out how good a job each candidate is doing at these (and other) ways of winning.
By all accounts, Romney’s first debate performance helped him on both fronts. Thus, not only did Romney’s support within these groups strengthen, but pollsters started to take account of this strength when modeling the electorate. Now, many pollsters are modeling less of an edge for self-identified D’s over R’s.
So, the D-heavy model of the electorate that predominated before the debate is disappearing — due in large part to Romney’s debate performance — and Romney’s support among R’s and I’s grew — due in large part to Romney’s debate performance.
Thus, it may well be true both that Obama wasn’t really leading the way he appeared to be leading — we’ll never know if the electorate actually changed the way the pollsters’ models did — and that Romney’s debate performance did move the polls.
Now, it’s your turn to dismiss this explanation as spin and go back to bad-mouthing Southern voters, even as we learn Honey Boo Boo prefers Obama to Romney. Whodathunkit?
Kyle Wingfield
October 16th, 2012
5:13 pm
BW: See my 5:12.
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
October 16th, 2012
5:14 pm
Cheesy
When people walk into that booth to vote. Not knowing who Romney even is will end up costing him.
They know he is not Obama and not responsible for this horrible economy and not responsible for 4 dead at the Libyan consulate, so they pretty much know all they need to know.
Change– it such a beautiful thing, right!
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
October 16th, 2012
5:19 pm
Most poor people I know work two or three jobs and squeeze every penny.
Cheesy, where I was raised, cigarettes, beer, and lottery tickets were extravagances, birth control was essential. There is no “free” stuff, someone pays.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
October 16th, 2012
5:19 pm
“Why would voters change their minds so decisively rather than say they were undecided pre-debate?”
Because they saw a real leader in Romney, vs. a wannabe in Obama.
The emperor has no clothes, BW.
MarkV
October 16th, 2012
5:20 pm
Dusty @4:02 pm
“When one approves of the president almost 100% then I am sure they are wearing “rose colored glasses.”“
I am not 100% certain of that, but I would agree that in most circumstances it would be true. But to make you previous statement about me true, you would have to show that I approve of the president almost 100%. Can you?
“Therefore I make most judgments from my own experience. Don’t you?”
I could successfully argue that it is not true for most people (actually much of everybody’s judgment is based on experience of others), but that would be splitting hair, so I generally agree.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
October 16th, 2012
5:21 pm
Why am I not surprised MarkV is wordsmithing again.
The entire world BUT him knows Obama was talking about Benghazi.
Centrist
October 16th, 2012
5:25 pm
Polling is an art. Just this month Gallup increased the proportion of cellphones in its tracking survey from 40 percent, and now splits its calls to cellphones and land lines evenly. It was a boost for Obama.
Trying to figure out likely voters is simply a scientific wild ass guess (SWAG). No answers/answering machines, and refusals to participate when contacted have individual pollster adjustments. The margins of error are understated – but taken as a whole where Obama has consistently had an electoral lead among almost all pollsters (and Las Vegas intrade) would seem to indicate he is still the favorite. But 3 weeks is like dog years in politics. Obama or Romney could still win by an electoral landslide – with that probability favoring Obama.