2012 Tuesday: What, exactly, can Obama do to win tonight?
By now, everyone acknowledges the first debate between President Obama and Mitt Romney altered the course of this election.
On the day of the debate, Obama led Romney by 3.1 percentage points in the Real Clear Politics average of national opinion polls. Romney took his first lead against Obama six days later and has been no worse than tied for the past week; the two are in a statistical tie at the moment. More important, Romney has closed the gap or taken the lead in the crucial swing states and even put formerly Obama-leaning states Michigan, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania back in play. Today, for the first time, Romney even leads Obama in the RCP average of favorable/unfavorable polls: On average, the former Massachusetts governor is seen favorably by almost 50 percent of voters and has a net favorability rating of +5.4 percentage points — both figures are the highest of the entire presidential campaign for him — while Obama is at 51 percent and +5 percentage points. In four of the past six major polls, Romney’s net favorability is higher than Obama’s.
NBC News’ Chuck Todd has gone so far as to declare a “structural shift” in the race in Romney’s direction; it’s no longer Obama’s election to lose. So, what can Obama do in tonight’s town hall-style debate to regain the momentum?
Unfortunately for Obama supporters, I don’t think it’s going to be very easy.
Much of the commentary about the first debate focused on Obama’s listlessness and lack of aggressiveness. And that’s true as far as it goes. But Obama didn’t just lose the debate; Romney won it. After the Obama campaign spent months and tens (if not hundreds) of millions of dollars portraying Romney as a cold extremist, Romney gave a very different impression to many voters giving him a hard look for the first time. He was personable, confident, energetic and sounded very reasonable. Obama’s poor performance made the turnaround sharper than it might have been, but Romney earned a re-evaluation from voters on his own.
There’s little Obama can do about that. He can try to rattle or bait Romney into saying something that would put off viewers, as Joe Biden clearly tried to do with Paul Ryan in their vice presidential debate last week. But it didn’t work with Ryan, and it’s unlikely to work with Romney, a more seasoned debater who made some of those mistakes early in the primary-debate season but has become more disciplined since then. The town-hall format, in which — strangely — the rivals are not supposed to engage one another directly, will also make that task more difficult.
That format also inherently makes it harder for Obama to show the aggressiveness he didn’t display in the first debate. The point is for the candidates to engage the audience, and it takes some fine maneuvering to do that while also going after one’s opponent. Not to mention that everyone is expecting more aggressiveness from Obama in this debate precisely because it was so obviously lacking last time. Remember what I wrote last week about expectations? Well, that same principle means it’s going to be hard for Obama to meet those expectations of aggressiveness with everyone watching for it, and without going overboard a la the laughing, smirking, interrupting Biden last week.
Obama can try to go after Romney’s credibility. But Romney parried those attacks well last time and, in last week’s VP debate, got a preview of the policy areas in which the Obama team thinks Romney is vulnerable on the facts; he ought to be ready for those. If there’s a secret line of attack the Obama campaign has been sitting on, tonight is the night to bring it out.
What’s more, the past 24 hours have given Romney new ways to dent Obama’s own credibility: Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s shouldering of the blame Monday for the lethally inadequate security at the U.S. consulate in Benghazi last month is a far cry from Obama’s 2008 statement — standing next to Clinton, no less — that he would be responsible for security matters. (Not to mention Clinton didn’t take responsibility for Obama’s inaccurate statements about why the attack happened.) There’s also the fresh bankruptcy of a manufacturer of batteries for electric cars that received a federal grant of almost $250 million in 2009 — another example of Obama’s “picking the losers,” as Romney put it in the last debate, rather than creating the 5 million green jobs he promised during, ahem, the 2008 town hall debate.
What we have, then, is a situation in which the Obama campaign tried to win the election by making it a contest of two personalities — and now faces a situation where its portrayal of Romney has been blown, and time is running out to persuade voters that caricature was correct after all.
(Note: I’ll once again be live-blogging the debate tonight, so look for a fresh post later today where you can follow the face-off with me and other readers.)
– By Kyle Wingfield
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238 comments Add your comment
cc
October 16th, 2012
2:43 pm
QQ
Because they are!
iggy
October 16th, 2012
2:43 pm
Georgia you are racist liar!
October 16th, 2012
2:39 pm
LMAO!!
cc
October 16th, 2012
2:44 pm
@@
sorry about that!
The answer is, “Because they are!”
Kyle Wingfield
October 16th, 2012
2:44 pm
Centrist @ 12:04: I would love to hear Romney, when challenged about the specifics of his plan, say something along the lines of, “I’d rather propose a framework on which I can work with Congress, than two detailed budgets that Congress defeats 513-0.”
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
October 16th, 2012
2:44 pm
“The Senate now requires 60 votes to pass legislation,”
Centrist, just a minor correction on your post. The Senate doesn’t require 60 votes for budgetary and tax bills. The filibuster is only in effect for everything else. Harry Reid uses that as a smoke screen.
iggy
October 16th, 2012
2:45 pm
“liars tend to get their comeuppance in the end.”
And OBlunder is finally getting his…
DownInAlbany
October 16th, 2012
2:49 pm
Well sir or miss you are damn liar!! The exit polling place are only asking white voters that question.
Surely, you don’t really believe this, do you?
That’s what wrong with you ignorant poor ass racist wannabe republicans in geogia.
Who is the racist? May want to look in the mirror.
It is asinine to vote to cut your arm off to spite your face.
I think it goes, “…cut off your NOSE to spite your face…” But, whatever makes you happy, I guess.
This presidential race is not about issues at all. It is about the race of the candidates. Georgians have proven time and time agin to be ignorant of the issues and let race lead the way of their vote. After you guys elected Nathan Deal!!
Not a Deal fan, but, how does his election “…let race lead the way of their vote…”?
Lambeau
October 16th, 2012
2:50 pm
That would just be amazing Kyle. Thanks for the laugh at how ridiculous Obama is.
Kyle Wingfield
October 16th, 2012
2:50 pm
JamVet @ 12:55: 79% chance of winning? When every major poll shows a statistical tie in the popular vote and enough statistical ties in the swing states that either candidate could win 300+ EVs?
And I’m the one trying to “rally the troops”?
Kyle Wingfield
October 16th, 2012
2:52 pm
Finn @ 1:07: “the Senate isn’t even close to flipping”
I would not bet today on the GOP winning a majority in the Senate, but to say it “isn’t even close” is to wade into “denier” territory.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
October 16th, 2012
2:53 pm
AmVet is kinda unhinged right now, Kyle.
He hasn’t got anybody virulently liberal to vote for in this election.
JF McNamara
October 16th, 2012
2:54 pm
@Lambeau,
When has Obama lied? He made campaign promises that he tried and failed to deliver (ie Gitmo). You could argue Libya, but he is getting his just due for that. As a candidate or President, he never lied, and you can’t prove otherwise.
Romney is a lying machine, and he is constantly in need of fact checkers. Just because your candidate has no morals doesn’t mean Obama doesn’t too. Justify it however you need to, but he needs to lie to win. If that’s what it takes, then he doesn’t deserve to win.
Kyle Wingfield
October 16th, 2012
2:54 pm
BW @ 1:45: Where did I write that it’s “Romney’s to lose”? I said it was no longer Obama’s to lose.
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
October 16th, 2012
2:55 pm
Simply pathetic:
Paul Ryan’s Bogus Soup Kitchen Photo Op
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/election-2012/wp/2012/10/15/charity-president-unhappy-about-paul-ryan-soup-kitchen-photo-op/
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
October 16th, 2012
2:55 pm
And to Amvet’s laughable “prediction”, I’m sticking with the one I made almost a year ago, which is that the difference will be 20 Electoral Votes between the two candidates.
If Romney wins tonight’s debate, he’ll have the extra 20. If Obama wins or ties it is still a toss-up.
Darwin
October 16th, 2012
2:55 pm
He should surrender. Any candidate who can cut taxes 20% across the board, increase defense spending, maintain entitlements, spend on education and infrastructure, and balance the budget – all by finding loopholes that cover 4% of the 20% tax cuts – should be elected. In addition, position emergency rooms as the new U.S. health care model. Oh, and he loves regulations.
Lambeau
October 16th, 2012
2:57 pm
JF… really? Go and check out the fact checks for Obama and see how much he’s lied. Don’t just absorb all the liberal media crap you hear. Look into how much Obama “stretches the truth” and tiptoes over the line of honesty and you’ll see that he’s no angel.
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
October 16th, 2012
3:04 pm
No Prompter, No Chance.
bwa
@@
October 16th, 2012
3:04 pm
Kyle:
Centrist @ 12:04: I would love to hear Romney, when challenged about the specifics of his plan, say something along the lines of, “I’d rather propose a framework on which I can work with Congress…
My thoughts exactly. Kinda like Pelosi’s “We have to pass it to know what’s in it” remark.
Except in Romney’s case, he’s not gonna elaborate until he knows in what direction both houses are leaning. (D)LIBERATION is key.
(ISH)
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
October 16th, 2012
3:05 pm
Lambeau, I’m not all that thrilled with the accusation that Obama “lied” about things.
He’s made a lot of mistakes, bad decisions, and hasn’t fulfilled promises, but to accuse him of “lying” claims to know beforehand that he never intended to accomplish that which he set out to do.
I can agree that his administration has lied about the Benghazi attack, as no one with a working brain can deny that intelligence sources knew within 24 hours of the attack that there was no demonstration and that it was a coordinated, planned attack, but that’s the only one I can pin on them thus far.
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
October 16th, 2012
3:07 pm
Not only does emperess obozo have no clothes, his brain is missing too.
@@
October 16th, 2012
3:08 pm
Finn:
Barack Obama and his daughter took a dip in the gulf right after the spill.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/president-goes-for-a-swim-in-the-gulf-ndash-or-does-he-2053567.html
Then there was John Stewart mocking Obama’s photo-ops DURING the spill.
http://www.aim.org/don-irvine-blog/jon-stewart-mocks-obama-photo-ops/
@@
October 16th, 2012
3:09 pm
Finn:
Barack Obama and his daughter took a dip in the gulf right after the spill.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/president-goes-for-a-swim-in-the-gulf-ndash-or-does-he-2053567.html
Don Abernethy
October 16th, 2012
3:09 pm
Nothing I hope.
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
October 16th, 2012
3:10 pm
obozo – The Danica Patrick of politics.
Lambeau
October 16th, 2012
3:10 pm
Tiberius, I’m not talking about broken promises. I really do feel that Obama was honest in trying to set out and acomplish those promises in the beginning. I mean more about numbers and figures during debates and continuing to use the “video” excuse regarding the Benghazi attack. Romney hasn’t been 100% squeaky clean himself. But to say that Obama has had no hand in the “stretching of the truth” and casting Romney as this huge liar is just ridiculous.
@@
October 16th, 2012
3:10 pm
Finn:
And…
Jon Stewart Mocks Obama Photo Ops DURING the spill.
http://www.aim.org/don-irvine-blog/jon-stewart-mocks-obama-photo-ops/
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
October 16th, 2012
3:12 pm
Some talking head said last night that Romney should hope Barry brings up the 47% comments. When he does, Romney should say, I wish I had not said that, I’d like to ask Barry if he wished he had not said this.
“And it’s not surprising then that they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations,” Obama said.
Totally negates an advantage for Obama touting the 47% comment.
Experts say that who ever wins the first debate, usually is the one that benefits from any debate bounce. In other words hard to catch up.
Lambeau
October 16th, 2012
3:14 pm
I guess I should have used a less harsh term than “lied” in those statements. My bad. Carry on.
Dusty
October 16th, 2012
3:17 pm
Well, sounds like Obama is going to get a ‘whopping” if there ever was one. . My fair honest compatriot Mark V rails against those who do not see the president as he sees him. He forgets his own rose colored glasses which shade out any imperfections in the Obama presidency.
But that’s nothing new. Way back in 1796, Thomas Paine decided to tell George Washington how “deceitful, if not even perfidious” he was. George Washington no less! But I was reminded of Obama. Here’s a paragraph from Paine’s letter:
“Elevated fo the Presidency you assumed the merit of everything to yourself, and the natural ingratitude of your constitution began to appear. You commenced your Presidential career by encouraging and swallowing the grossest adulation, and you travelled America from one end to the other, to put yourself in the way of receiving it. You have as many addesses in your chest as James the II. As to what were your views, for if you are not great enough to have ambition, you are little enough to have vanity, they cannot be directly inferred from expressions of your own, but the partisans of your politics have divulged the secret.”
Paine “missed it” on Washington but right on target for Obama. (You ought to read the rest of the letter!) He would have a great time in political writing today.
Centrist
October 16th, 2012
3:17 pm
While I am for Romney, I acknowledge that Obama is ahead in the electoral college polling. The Real Clear Politics map (without toss-ups) http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html has Obama currently winning 294 – 244 with Ohio and Virginia in his column. We could argue the validity of the likely voting polls based on 4 years ago, and the trend/momentum moving toward Romney, but my ultimate indicator is how the money via Las Vegas intrade has Obama nearly a 2:1 favorite.
It is all going to come down to turnout in a handful of states, and maybe the next two debates and/or outside influences including weather might be the deciding factors.
sailfish
October 16th, 2012
3:18 pm
**Experts say that who ever wins the first debate, usually is the one that benefits from any debate bounce. In other words hard to catch up.**
What experts might that be? W and reagan seemed to have overcome the first debate blues..
iggy
October 16th, 2012
3:20 pm
“I’m not talking about broken promises. I really do feel that Obama was honest in trying to set out and acomplish those promises in the beginning.”
At the beginning Obama was showing his naivete. Now he is just sidestepping and tap dancing.
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
October 16th, 2012
3:20 pm
MarkV and others on here say that you can not hold Barry accountable for the fiasco in Libya as other people closer to the scene should be accountable first. I could buy this, if it were true in reverse.
Many on the conservative side know that the CIA, DIA, FBI, Seal Team 6, Special Forces, the Armed Forces, etc should get the credit for killing OBL, but who jumps up first and starts strutting and trash talking. Barry himself saying, I got Osama. What a creep!
He reminds me of the boss from hell, who always grabbed any credit that came our way, but when someone played hob, he was nowhere to be found. When questioned about it, he never took responsibility. We have all had an Obama for boss, and it is hard to get that taste out of your mouth.
sailfish
October 16th, 2012
3:21 pm
dusty
I wonder what paine would have said about GWBush – it most likely wouldn’t have been to complimentary either, but then you’ll have to remove your rose colored glasses, right?
Georgia
October 16th, 2012
3:23 pm
Obama doesn’t deserve to win. He didn’t know about the split screen that viewers saw in the first debate. If he’s that oblivious to the media, then how can we trust his competence to be our president? It was a shamefully embarrassing performance that made many of those passionate 47 percenters from 2008 lose interest in him and his now-archaic and hackneyed generalities about political evolution. The 47 percenters probably wont even vote now. Nor should they. Voting for what never was or what never could be or what is not now is both counter-productive and a menace to freedom.
Georgia
October 16th, 2012
3:24 pm
Obama simply peaked too soon. He should have paced himself. Now with the new Romney surging, I think we got a new president.
MarkV
October 16th, 2012
3:33 pm
Lambeau @2:37 pm
“Leon Panetta, Hillary Clinton and others called the Benghazi attack an acts of terrorism, but Obama still blamed the video in his UN Speech. Bam. Theres you’re evidence. There is NO WAY at that point he didn’t know. Yet he still perpetuated the lie.”
Wrong. Again, present the evidence. Not a general “Obama still blamed the video in his UN speech.” Concretely. Quote Obama from his UN speech to show how he blamed the video for the attack on the US consulate in Benghazi. I am calling that a lie.
@@
October 16th, 2012
3:36 pm
Geez! Kyle wasn’t kiddin’ about Obama’s preferred losers.
A123 Systems files for bankruptcy
At its peak in 2009, A123 stock traded above $25 a share. Shares were trading a 6 cents Tuesday afternoon.
That ^^^ one’s a BIG LOSER!
At its peak in 2009, A123 stock traded above $25 a share. Shares were trading a 6 cents Tuesday afternoon.
@@
October 16th, 2012
3:36 pm
Oops!
Double clutched.
Hillbilly D
October 16th, 2012
3:40 pm
Actually, reading that letter excerpt, sounds like Thomas Paine had Washington pretty well figured out. Ol’ George always did benefit from good press, though.
For anybody who might be interested, Mark Bowden has a new book out, “The Finish-The Killing of Osama Bin Laden”. He is the author of “Blackhawk Down-A Story of Modern War”, “Killing Pablo” and “Guests of the Ayatollah- The First Battle In America’s War With Militant Islam”, among others. His books are very well researched and very readable. I haven’t read it yet but it should make for an interesting book.
MarkV
October 16th, 2012
3:42 pm
Dusty @ 3:17 pm
Dusty,
Why are you making assumptions and conclusions about why I am doing what I am doing? (Rose colored glasses.) If you disagree specifically with something I write, let’s hear it and discuss it. I do not “rail” against those who do not see the president as I see him. I address specific issues and comment them.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
October 16th, 2012
3:43 pm
“Quote Obama from his UN speech to show how he blamed the video for the attack on the US consulate in Benghazi. I am calling that a lie.”
OK.
From his Sept 12th speech at the U.N.: “And on this we must agree: There is no speech that justifies mindless violence. There are no words that excuse the killing of innocents. There’s no video that justifies an attack on an embassy.”
Epic, epic, fail (again) on your part, MarkV.
Georgia
October 16th, 2012
3:45 pm
It’s obvious that neither Obama nor Hillary know exactly what happened in Benghazi. Worse, look at Pakistan: Obama also couldn’t prevent the Taliban attack on that poor 14 year old either. Romney would have made sure that our foreign policy could inspire anti-terrorism and maybe that poor girl would be doing homework right now.
Dusty
October 16th, 2012
3:47 pm
Sailfish,
I see you are hooked on Obama.
I think Paine would have like George W. Bush because Bush was so honest and never tried to be anything but himself. No pretention there.
The one happy thing about 9/11 was Bush who stood tall and unbeaten before us. I don’t forget. You do on purpose. If he were running for President now (which he can’t) I would vote for him again. He brought to the White House more experience in every field of governance than both of the current nominees.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
October 16th, 2012
3:48 pm
” I do not “rail” against those who do not see the president as I see him. I address specific issues and comment them.”
LOL!
Funniest comment of the day – by far!
iggy
October 16th, 2012
3:50 pm
Obama is paralyzed. He doesnt know if he should turn right, left, reverse, or stand still. The sign of a true novice.
PS…His “forward” campaign is, well as Joe puts it, a bunch of stuff ie malarkey.
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
October 16th, 2012
3:50 pm
Obama blamed the video, for the attack, when he spoke to the UN and when he was on Letterman. Obviously he was lying at that point, as he had access to the Intelligence reports and State Dept personnel, by that time.
He should be questioned as to why he didn’t know the truth, when the info was readily available, or if he knew, why he lied. This would make for an interesting question, but I doubt it will ever be asked.
Lambeau
October 16th, 2012
3:51 pm
“That is what we saw play out the last two weeks, as a crude and disgusting video sparked outrage throughout the Muslim world…” “There are no words that excuse the killing of innocents. There is no video that justifies an attack on an Embassy…” Obama – UN speech 2012. This, after Hillary Clinton and others had already testified that it was a planned attack. Nothing said about a terrorist attack.
Common Sense
October 16th, 2012
3:52 pm
He’s gonna need to get a Time Machine, travel back four years, and this time, fix the economy.
Otherwise, he’s done.