2012 Tuesday: What, exactly, can Obama do to win tonight?
By now, everyone acknowledges the first debate between President Obama and Mitt Romney altered the course of this election.
On the day of the debate, Obama led Romney by 3.1 percentage points in the Real Clear Politics average of national opinion polls. Romney took his first lead against Obama six days later and has been no worse than tied for the past week; the two are in a statistical tie at the moment. More important, Romney has closed the gap or taken the lead in the crucial swing states and even put formerly Obama-leaning states Michigan, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania back in play. Today, for the first time, Romney even leads Obama in the RCP average of favorable/unfavorable polls: On average, the former Massachusetts governor is seen favorably by almost 50 percent of voters and has a net favorability rating of +5.4 percentage points — both figures are the highest of the entire presidential campaign for him — while Obama is at 51 percent and +5 percentage points. In four of the past six major polls, Romney’s net favorability is higher than Obama’s.
NBC News’ Chuck Todd has gone so far as to declare a “structural shift” in the race in Romney’s direction; it’s no longer Obama’s election to lose. So, what can Obama do in tonight’s town hall-style debate to regain the momentum?
Unfortunately for Obama supporters, I don’t think it’s going to be very easy.
Much of the commentary about the first debate focused on Obama’s listlessness and lack of aggressiveness. And that’s true as far as it goes. But Obama didn’t just lose the debate; Romney won it. After the Obama campaign spent months and tens (if not hundreds) of millions of dollars portraying Romney as a cold extremist, Romney gave a very different impression to many voters giving him a hard look for the first time. He was personable, confident, energetic and sounded very reasonable. Obama’s poor performance made the turnaround sharper than it might have been, but Romney earned a re-evaluation from voters on his own.
There’s little Obama can do about that. He can try to rattle or bait Romney into saying something that would put off viewers, as Joe Biden clearly tried to do with Paul Ryan in their vice presidential debate last week. But it didn’t work with Ryan, and it’s unlikely to work with Romney, a more seasoned debater who made some of those mistakes early in the primary-debate season but has become more disciplined since then. The town-hall format, in which — strangely — the rivals are not supposed to engage one another directly, will also make that task more difficult.
That format also inherently makes it harder for Obama to show the aggressiveness he didn’t display in the first debate. The point is for the candidates to engage the audience, and it takes some fine maneuvering to do that while also going after one’s opponent. Not to mention that everyone is expecting more aggressiveness from Obama in this debate precisely because it was so obviously lacking last time. Remember what I wrote last week about expectations? Well, that same principle means it’s going to be hard for Obama to meet those expectations of aggressiveness with everyone watching for it, and without going overboard a la the laughing, smirking, interrupting Biden last week.
Obama can try to go after Romney’s credibility. But Romney parried those attacks well last time and, in last week’s VP debate, got a preview of the policy areas in which the Obama team thinks Romney is vulnerable on the facts; he ought to be ready for those. If there’s a secret line of attack the Obama campaign has been sitting on, tonight is the night to bring it out.
What’s more, the past 24 hours have given Romney new ways to dent Obama’s own credibility: Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s shouldering of the blame Monday for the lethally inadequate security at the U.S. consulate in Benghazi last month is a far cry from Obama’s 2008 statement — standing next to Clinton, no less — that he would be responsible for security matters. (Not to mention Clinton didn’t take responsibility for Obama’s inaccurate statements about why the attack happened.) There’s also the fresh bankruptcy of a manufacturer of batteries for electric cars that received a federal grant of almost $250 million in 2009 — another example of Obama’s “picking the losers,” as Romney put it in the last debate, rather than creating the 5 million green jobs he promised during, ahem, the 2008 town hall debate.
What we have, then, is a situation in which the Obama campaign tried to win the election by making it a contest of two personalities — and now faces a situation where its portrayal of Romney has been blown, and time is running out to persuade voters that caricature was correct after all.
(Note: I’ll once again be live-blogging the debate tonight, so look for a fresh post later today where you can follow the face-off with me and other readers.)
– By Kyle Wingfield
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238 comments Add your comment
iggy
October 16th, 2012
1:10 pm
HildaBeast threw herself on the sword in a feeble attempt to cover OBlunders rear flanks OR was forced to do so by OBlunder and the DNC. This is quite obvious.
OBlunder has blundered himself into a box from which he probably will be unable to escape.
iggy
October 16th, 2012
1:10 pm
51st…YEAH!!
iggy
October 16th, 2012
1:12 pm
Within the last few days, FL and NH have come over to the RR Camp and now VA has moved from LikelyObama to toss up.
Little by Little the RR camp is taking over.
JKL2
October 16th, 2012
1:13 pm
Centrist- he will be the fastest lame duck President in history
How will we be able to tell “lame duck obama” from “business as usual obama”? Will he do fewer fundraisers?
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right
October 16th, 2012
1:13 pm
AmVet, when Kyle referenced “everyone ” he meant everyone with a working brain.
MarkV
October 16th, 2012
1:17 pm
“The Romney portrayed by the media and by Obama is and always was a fictional character. He’s always been this personable and moderate but you’ve been too blind to see it.”
I certainly did hear what he was saying.
@@
October 16th, 2012
1:19 pm
Obama threw HILLARY under the bus too!!??!!
According to a Gallup/USA Today poll of 12 swing states, Romney leads Obama by 12 points among men. But it is his surge among women voters to within one point of Obama that has given him a four-point overall lead that sets him on course to win the White House on November 6th.
And now the major feminist icon of the modern era, Hillary Clinton, is going under the bus to protect Obama from criticism over the Benghazi attack. That obviously won’t sit well with Hillary’s male and female supporters in the Democrat Party, who weren’t all that happy with Barack Obama to begin with. And it’s not quite the headline Obama wanted to see, as he watches female voters abandon his campaign.
With ^^^ that, he can expect to lose more female voters.
Hillary’s been working her butt off while Obama’s been sitting on his.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right
October 16th, 2012
1:20 pm
Actually, you didn’t. You heard only that which you wanted to hear, MarkV.
Just like you always do.
MarkV
October 16th, 2012
1:20 pm
Lambeau @ 12:41 pm: “ It would be like blaming the CEO for LYING about the defect so he wont look bad to the shareholders. Then when everyone discovers he lied, someone beneath him takes the fall to make it
appear as though he didnt know he was lying.”
And what is your evidence that Obama lied about it? It is just disgusting when people like you make these accusations without a shred of evidence.
@@
October 16th, 2012
1:21 pm
Barack Obama is Hillary’s couch potato.
schnirt
JamVet
October 16th, 2012
1:24 pm
Then why are you responding, tibby?
BTW, have you read any good books explaining sunspots as the reason for anthropogenic climate change lately?
Schnort.
Jsquared, I leave the Koran/Beatles record burnings to you southern, white, Christian, Republican, Eddie Meese, faux puritan, fascist Klan types.
You wear it well…
MarkV
October 16th, 2012
1:25 pm
Tiberius @1:20 pm
As usual, Tiberius “argues” by making stupid ASSumptions and personal accusations. There is no point to respond further to people behaving so stupidly.
tiredofIT
October 16th, 2012
1:29 pm
Bruno
October 16th, 2012
12:58 pm
JamVet predicts BHO has an 79% chance of winning and the final EC tally, BHO – 311, WMR – 227.
Let’s just hope you’re saving up for a killer concert in case you’re wrong. If Obama wins, it will be by the slightest of margins. It all comes down to how many dead people the Dems can find to cast votes.
++
I guess the republicans are counting on the brain dead to vote for them.
Lambeau
October 16th, 2012
1:33 pm
Okay if you want to play this game… how about we dont even go with Oblamea, but expand it to his administration. He said that HE was in charge of overseeing security. Then when that fails he gets “information” passed to him that was a complete lie which he chose to pass along to the American people. Now all he is doing is blaming other people for “getting bad information” and blaming everyone else but himself for something that could have been avoided. Becuase of course, if he takes the blame it would hurt his campaign. None of this bodes well for him or his administration regarding foreign policy. It is sloppy and passive and no responsibility is taken when a situation goes awry.
Lambeau
October 16th, 2012
1:36 pm
Last comment directed at MarkV btw. Sorry.
BoneHead
October 16th, 2012
1:42 pm
getalife;
What world do you live in, it is NOT the one we all live in…
DownInAlbany
October 16th, 2012
1:42 pm
To accuse the President of something that is handled way below the White House is preposterous
Sooo, the Secretary of State is “…way below the White House…?”
Comical!
sharon
October 16th, 2012
1:43 pm
A part of me hope you people get exactly what you’re asking for and deserve (Mitt Romney) so he can screw you over. You all have been hoodwinked into thinking that snake oil salesman is the answer to this country and all that ails it. The President may not be your choice, but flip flop Mitt is defintely not the answer. Because there is so much at stake, I’ll stick with Obama
BW
October 16th, 2012
1:45 pm
Wow Kyle….you went from imploring us that the race wasn’t over before the first debate to the race is Romney’s to lose before the second debate…forgive me if I take this post with a barrel of salt
Del
October 16th, 2012
1:46 pm
Kyle, You hit all of the key points. That first debate made for Romney a favorable impression with many voters who had previously only seen the Obama attack ads. It will be difficult for Obama to now reverse that favorable impression. All Romney needs to do this evening is appear presidential and force Obama to sell the same policies that have failed during his first term.
Gravy Train
October 16th, 2012
1:47 pm
Spin away, Kyle. You plutocrat lap dogs can deny it all you want, but you know Willard is as fake as the Book of Mormon. Still waiting for the details on Willard’s economic plans and what more he can do to Iran short of war. I probably have a better chance at finding Willard’s cult “golden seals.” Bullies don’t change, they grow up to be Republicans. Every demographic other than poorly educated southern people shows this to be true.
Matz
October 16th, 2012
1:48 pm
I wish they’d have an actual debate. This staged “town hall” media event is not even close. It’s an insult to thinking people, but sadly appropriate for the majority of citizens who can’t be bothered to inform themselves on the facts. Just tell us what we want to hear, so we can jump up and yell, “YEAH! Wooooo!” All wankage, no substance.
DownInAlbany
October 16th, 2012
1:49 pm
And what is your evidence that Obama lied about it?
How about the fact that he continues to blame “…that video…” for the terrorist attack in Benghazi?
Gravy Train
October 16th, 2012
1:50 pm
There just aren’t enough dumb, angry, white folks for us to win. – Lindsay Graham (R) SC
DownInAlbany
October 16th, 2012
1:52 pm
Still waiting for the details on Willard’s economic plans and what more he can do to Iran short of war
And, we’re still waiting on O’s economic plans and what he can do to Iran short of war
Centrist
October 16th, 2012
1:53 pm
Either Obama or Romney is going to have strike some sort of “Grand Bargain” over spending, taxes, deficits, and debt. The Senate now requires 60 votes to pass legislation, so the tug of war rope can only swing a little either way from the grid-locked middle. There will be no change in the tax rates or sequestration for almost a year – a lame duck Congress will kick that can down the road for whatever the ultimate make-up of next Summer’s “Grand Bargain”, or disastrous continued grid-lock.
iggy
October 16th, 2012
1:54 pm
When/if OBlunder looses at least the dems can now blame The HildaBeast.
Gravy Train
October 16th, 2012
1:59 pm
I hope Willard gets asked about his 47% comments so everyone can see him lie to the face of the questioner on national tv. He got to skate by before, now comes the hammer.
ragnar danneskjold
October 16th, 2012
1:59 pm
The president’s best chance of restoring credibility would be to admit the failure of the stimulus, the failure of “leading from behind,” the damage wrought on employment by ObamaCare and the prospect of Dodd-Frank regulators unleased on the economy, and to recognize the injury that will be inflicted on Jan 1, 2013 by the largest tax increase in the history of the world.
Once he persuades us he recognizes the errors he has made, he could promise to switch course on all of the above, and throw in repeal of Sarbanes-Oxley for good measure. Then, and only then, will rational people rally behind the president.
ragnar danneskjold
October 16th, 2012
2:00 pm
Elimination of Homeland Security would also be a popular move.
MarkV
October 16th, 2012
2:04 pm
Lambeau @1:33 pm
“… how about we dont even go with Oblamea, but expand it to his administration.”
We are electing a President, a person.
“He said that HE was in charge of overseeing security. Then when that fails …” Again, back to the CEO of a car company. Sure, he is in charge of the quality of the overall product. What rational people would accuse him personally, when a part of the car fails prematurely?
“… he gets “information” passed to him that was a complete lie which he chose to pass along to the American people.”
You mean something like the WMD information, that Bush and his Administration passed to the American people? The people incapable of rational thought try to blame the political opponents for what happens and must happen in any administration. What else should the Administration tell the people than the information it is getting from its intelligence sources? Have you any evidence that President Obama told the American people something else than what he was told by the intelligence people?
southpaw
October 16th, 2012
2:06 pm
ragnar @1:59
Considering prior talk of different “versions” of Romney (e.g., Finn @12:33), would the President become “Obama 2.0″ if he takes your advice?
@@
October 16th, 2012
2:11 pm
If Hillary doesn’t tender her resignation, we’ll know it’s a political ploy.
Seein’s how there was actionable information coming in right after the attack started, it was available to every intel and military center in the US govt web.
Rice had to get permission from the WH to appear on the talk shows. Who told her what to say in “SPITE” of the actionable info?
Something stinks in the donkey corral.
Gravy Train
October 16th, 2012
2:12 pm
Too bad Willard has created his cold, flip-flop image all by himself. Nice try, Kyle. Shake the Etch-A-Sketch again?
Centrist
October 16th, 2012
2:13 pm
Is there a single poster here who thinks the lame duck Congress will allow the tax rates to increase across the board and sequestration to take effect in 65 days? Furthermore, is there a single poster here who thinks the very Republican House is going to agree to Obama’s/ Democrat’s desire to only increase the top tax rate for those individuals/small businesses/families earning over $200/250K? If so, did you notice the Democrat Senate couldn’t even pass a tax increase based on the Buffet Rule for those earning millions/billions per year which would have hit them and their campaign contributors?
Lambeau
October 16th, 2012
2:17 pm
MarkV
No matter what anyone says on here, if it’s not what you agree with you *always* have a “response” to it. We are talking about Obama and his administration – not Bush. When did I ever say I didn’t hold Bush accountable too? And if you think THAT bad of intel getting to the president is acceptable you need to hold your standards higher. And long after Obama was “informed of the truth” he CONTINUED to perpetuate the lie! Now how can you not say that raises several red flags about the quality of our current administrations ability to handle foreign affairs?!
@@
October 16th, 2012
2:21 pm
If…and that’s a BIG IF…Obama didn’t know, that furthers the argument that he’s disengaged.
His disengagement didn’t work too well in the first debate, did it?
I’ve got an image of Obama running around in circles trying to cover his own ass.
Has a dog ever caught their own tail? I’ve never witnessed such a feat.
Georgia you are racist liar!
October 16th, 2012
2:27 pm
Georgia
October 16th, 2012
12:31 pm
In early voting, exit polling has revealed that not one person has said that they voted for Obama. Not one.
Well sir or miss you are damn liar!! The exit polling place are only asking white voters that question. That’s what wrong with you ignorant poor ass racist wannabe republicans in geogia. It is asinine to vote to cut your arm off to spite your face. This presidential race is not about issues at all. It is about the race of the candidates. Georgians have proven time and time agin to be ignorant of the issues and let race lead the way of their vote. After you guys elected Nathan Deal!!
MarkV
October 16th, 2012
2:29 pm
Lambeau @2:17 pm: “And long after Obama was “informed of the truth” he CONTINUED to perpetuate the lie! “
Present the evidence. Put up or shut up.
iggy
October 16th, 2012
2:30 pm
Georgia you are racist liar!
October 16th, 2012
2:27 pm
You prefer your crying towel now or after tonites debate?
Lambeau
October 16th, 2012
2:30 pm
@@,
Completely agree. It’s ridiculous how some people will stick up for this guy no matter what he does to show that he does not deserve to be in the WH!
cc
October 16th, 2012
2:32 pm
carlosgvv@12:24 pm:
“tell as many lies as necessary to win over all his gullible supporters”
Obama has been doing exactly that all his political life, and especially since 2007.
bluecoat@12:47 pm:
“Mr. Romney hiding forbidden notes for reference at the debate”
Still on that nonsense? For the 100th time, it was a handkerchief, but believe whatever you choose.
JamVet@12:55 pm:
“Willard kicks a 29 yard field goal to cut Barry’s lead to 31 – 13, late in the fourth quarter.”
Hallucinate much? Even MSNBC gave that spin up one hour after the debate! Those drugs aren’t doing you any good, brother.
Finn McCool@1:04 pm:
If that is all you’ve got, you ain’t hittin’ on much, are you?
JKL2@1:07 pm:
Try to focus! This is 2012, George Bush is not the president. Obama is the president, and he owns it all. He is not being asked to account for Bush, just for his failures, broken promises and lies.
Gravy Train@1:47 pm and 1:50 pm:
Here’s your biscuit, now go away. Adults are talking here.
Lambeau
October 16th, 2012
2:37 pm
Leon Panetta, Hillary Clinton and others called the Benghazi attack an acts of terrorism, but Obama still blamed the video in his UN Speech. Bam. Theres you’re evidence. There is NO WAY at that point he didn’t know. Yet he still perpetuated the lie.
JF McNamara
October 16th, 2012
2:38 pm
All he has to do it tell the truth, and he’ll win to me. Romney is a liar, and liars tend to get their comeuppance in the end.
@@
October 16th, 2012
2:39 pm
’scUSE me!
Georgians have proven time and time agin to be ignorant of the issues and let race lead the way of their vote. After you guys elected Nathan Deal!!
I voted for the black Libertarian…John Monds.
On another note, Ross Perot has endorsed Mitt Romney.
Georgia you are racist liar!
October 16th, 2012
2:39 pm
iggy
Put the crying towel up your @$$!!
cc
October 16th, 2012
2:40 pm
Georgia you are racist liar!@2:27 pm:
“you ignorant poor ass racist wannabe republicans in geogia”
Well, congratulations, you have finally tried to inject “racism” into the dialogue. Pardon me if I am not too surprised or upset. I anticipated you . . .
@@
October 16th, 2012
2:41 pm
Those who cry “RACISM” always appear to be unhinged.
Why is that?
Lambeau
October 16th, 2012
2:41 pm
JF,
And you’re telling me Obama hasn’t lied at ALL in the past 4 years? Give me a break…
Kyle Wingfield
October 16th, 2012
2:42 pm
stands @ 11:57: “a tie is good enough to win when you’ve already got a lead.”
In what parallel universe does Obama have a lead? By every measure, this race is a dead heat right now. Both the national polling and the swing-state polling show statistical ties between the two.