I’m back — with a different view of the first debate
The Blue Screen of Death greeted me at the office this morning, suggesting my laptop wasn’t ready for its autumn vacation to end. Nonetheless, albeit belatedly …
I’m back.
It was a good trip, but it’s even better to get back here right in the swing of the election season, with just under a month to go until election time.
The big story while I was gone, of course, was last week’s debate between Mitt Romney and Clint Eastwood’s Empty Chair President Obama. The consensus is that Romney won handily, and the opinion polls show a much-tightened race as a result: Not only is Obama’s lead in the Real Clear Politics average of polls down to just 1.1 percentage point, but Romney is up to his highest level in the past year, over 47 percent on average.
Without getting into details from the debate’s exchanges which y’all have probably already read many times during the past several days, I do want to make one observation. I watched the debate in its entirety on CNN International, but not until it was rebroadcast about 10 hours later. Just before the replay began, CNN ran through the day’s headlines — including the belief among analysts and even a snap poll of undecided viewers that Romney was the runaway winner. Intrigued, my dad and I watched with the expectation of a blow-out performance by Romney. I think it’s fair to say we both thought he won the debate, but not as easily as we’d been led to believe.
As I understand it, this contrasts significantly with the expectations set for most Americans who watched it live. From what I hear, the lead-up to the debate framed it more as the beginning of a month-long wake for Romney’s campaign. His lack of a convention bounce and much-parsed comments about the “47 percent” had all but snuffed out his chances, and the eloquent Mr. Obama would finish him off by verbally slicing and dicing him before a national TV audience.
Maybe that’s a bit exaggerated, but here’s the point: Expectations matter. If you’re conditioned to believe Obama’s going to flatten Romney in the debate, then watch as Romney is energetic and aggressive while Obama drones on and spends much of his time looking down at the lectern, you’re likely to believe Romney seriously over-performed. Had the pundits beforehand proclaimed Romney as the heavy favorite, his actual performance might not have lived up to it.
Again, I thought Romney really did get the better of Obama. But as we head into the remaining debates — particularly including Thursday’s vice presidential debate, in which Paul Ryan is widely expected to have his way with the malapropism-prone Joe Biden — this is a reminder to be aware of how the expectations game colors actual performances.
– By Kyle Wingfield
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222 comments Add your comment
@@
October 9th, 2012
12:16 pm
So….if, according to Kyle, Romney was mediocre…that makes Obama less than…
Is there a word for that???
“Idleness is fatal only to the mediocre.”–Albert Camus
And THERE Obama stood….idle or idol….depending on how one views him.
Gives a whole new meaning to The Myth of Sissypuzz, don’t it?
schnirt
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
October 9th, 2012
12:20 pm
“Romney was like a Jack-in-the-Box who popped up and exclaimed, “I can fix that!” He was overly animated; ignoring history and proposing the already-tried-and-failed. ”
Really, Georgia? They’ve tried and failed to actually cut spending? They’ve tried and failed to actually cut regulations? They’ve tried and failed to actually implement a policy of energy independence?
Tell us when all of these things were accomplished, Georgia, because unlike you, some of us are actually students of real history, and those accomplishments seem to have gone unnoticed by us.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
October 9th, 2012
12:25 pm
“Someone needs to explain how a revenue neutral tax cut grows GDP 3%. ”
Someone needs to explain to JDW that the tax cut is one of but 50+ actions in Mitt Romney’s economic plan that will help produce GDP growth.
Add to that, just the mere fact that a professional businessman and actual leader will be in the White House beginning in January will boost economic confidence all by itself.
@@
October 9th, 2012
12:31 pm
And since we’re talking Obama’s Fluke, I’d just like to reveal his/her shallow thinking:
Taliban says it shot ‘infidel’ Pakistani teen for advocating girls’ rights
PESHAWAR, Pakistan— A 14-year-old Pakistani activist who won international acclaim for speaking out for girls denied education under the Taliban was shot Tuesday on her way home from school, authorities said.
The Pakistani Taliban claimed responsibility for the attack on ninth-grader Malala Yousafzai, who officials said was shot in the neck by at least one gunman who approached a school bus in Mingora, a city in the scenic Swat valley in the country’s northwest.
Makes Mizzzzzzz Fluke’s complaints pale in comparison.
JDW
October 9th, 2012
12:34 pm
@Tiberius…
BTW…this is haliarious…”Add to that, just the mere fact that a professional businessman and actual leader will be in the White House beginning in January will boost economic confidence all by itself.”
Can you tell me the name of the last “professional businessman” to occupy the White House….pssst think 1929
md
October 9th, 2012
12:37 pm
It boiled down to having the commercial actually being allowed to talk back……..
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
October 9th, 2012
12:40 pm
“Can you tell me the name of the last “professional businessman” to occupy the White House….pssst think 1929″
Let’s see . . . since it’s NOT 1929, and the person running NOW is named Mitt Romney, your question is pretty stupid, JDW.
But it’s what we’ve come to expect from you. Come forward to the present, JDW. The rest of the world actually lives in it.
snoqualmiefalls
October 9th, 2012
1:00 pm
TBan asks”when did acting and style take over as main reasons to vote for a candidate”
See Presidential election 1980; Saint Ronald Reagan, Republican candidate, former actor, former union leader.
Methinks TBan is off by a few years, eh?
Linda
October 9th, 2012
1:00 pm
When Romney spoke of the 47%, he was referencing the many Obama supporters who will vote for Obama because they believe in the philosophy of govt. dependence. They would never vote for Romney because he believes in self reliance.
Romney offers the same offering made by our Founding Fathers and it’s a promise to respect our Constitution. Obama offers a government taking you from the cradle to the grave, and as a result, your life is not your own. Welcome to Julia.
I can’t pretend to understand the human motive for turning over your life to a politician. Whatever the motive, it has got to be the most hopeless, miserable form of human existence. There’s only one form of life that is lower; it is the politician who thrives on the worst of human nature, who depends on people giving up on themselves. He looks forward to you throwing up your arms and giving up because this is how he obtains & maintains power.
To trust a politician to take perpetual care of you when the govt. he represents is trillions of dollars in debt, while the future of the US is being broadcast from Europe, is absolutely ludicrous.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
October 9th, 2012
1:15 pm
“Methinks TBan is off by a few years, eh?”
Being a former actor and acting at the time are two different things, snoqualmiefalls, which you’d know if you actually paid attention to history. In addition, Reagan was a former (and successful) governor of the largest state in the nation, which gave him far more executive experience than Jimmy Carter had, as he was an unsuccessful chief executive for (mercifully) 4 years.
But thanks for posting even more nonsense as usual.
Oh, and the name is Tiberius, not TBan. I’ll ask you politely to please use it.
@@
October 9th, 2012
1:19 pm
This one should be interesting:
Obama’s Property Grab Should End at Supreme Court
The Barack Obama administration tried last week to convince the U.S. Supreme Court that the federal government can deny landowners the use of their property for years — decades if need be — without ever paying compensation.
So Obama’s Solicitor General presents THIS argument?
Even if the Corps had permanently flooded the plaintiff’s property, Kneedler said, there would be no Fifth Amendment taking because people who live on a flood plain are aware of the risks of inundation. “When you live on a river and you know the consequences of having a flood control project on the river, that’s what happens.”
The federal government is equal to God. Who knew!!??!!
More like a man-made disaster if’n you ask me.
If they really believe their own argument, then we shouldn’t be bailing out victims of earthquakes, tornadoes, hurricanes and wildfires.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-08/obama-s-property-grab-should-end-at-supreme-court.html
Lambeau
October 9th, 2012
1:21 pm
I don’t post often but I read a lot and i just had to say this. Rafe, Tiberius, Linda, Towncrier, Lil Barry and a few others… Y’all just warm my heart
And in the words of LB…. Vote American!
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
October 9th, 2012
1:25 pm
“When Romney spoke of the 47%, he was referencing the many Obama supporters who will vote for Obama because they believe in the philosophy of govt. dependence.”
I disagree, Linda. I believe he spoke specifically about the 47% who would vote for Obama just because he’s a Democrat, or black, or for a specific policy that they completely agree with, and that he knows he’s not going to change their vote even if it was Hitler running under those same circumstances.
Where he “inelegantly stated” things was when he lumped those dependent on government into that same group, since veterans and retirees are also dependent on government and those people for the most part think before voting, unlike the liberals he was referencing in the other category.
JDW
October 9th, 2012
1:40 pm
@Tiberius…”Where he “inelegantly stated” things”
You need to catch up… the current official Romney party line is that the “remarks were completely wrong”. Don’t worry though like all thinks Romney I am sure a flip or a flop is coming.
JDW
October 9th, 2012
1:42 pm
@Tiberius…”Come forward to the present, JDW. The rest of the world actually lives in it.”
Indeed we do…you know where $5 trillion is really $5 trillion and trading Medicare for vouchers is a NO NO.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
October 9th, 2012
1:49 pm
Stop lying JDW. Even YOU should know that the Medicare program put forth by Romney makes vouchers an OPTION.
But then, knowing what is actually going on, instead of simply parroting the DNC talking points, is not your strong suit, is it?
@@
October 9th, 2012
2:04 pm
I’m thinkin’ economic OPTIONS aren’t something readily embraced by democrats.
Killing the unborn so the rest have more?
That’s an option democrats are eager to embrace.
Given our demographics, it won’t work out as planned.
@@
October 9th, 2012
2:16 pm
(Reuters) – A U.S. security officer formerly stationed in Libya has told lawmakers he sent two cables to the State Department requesting more security agents for the American mission in Benghazi but received no response.
Debate over whether the Obama administration was caught unprepared by an assault by militant groups has become U.S. election-year fodder./i>
Election-year fodder!!??!!
The Obama administration’s human fodder is more like it.
Jose
October 9th, 2012
2:38 pm
someone ask JDW where the $5 trillion in accumulated national debt from OBAMA came from?
can’t say BUSH………….. DEMOCRATS controlled the HOUSE and SENATE from 2007-2010…………… OBAMA needs to tell the TRUTH about HIS DEBT
Georgia
October 9th, 2012
2:42 pm
There are no economic options. 2008 proved that. If the natural economic cycle doesn’t get us, the crooks do. Cut spending? World ending! Cut Taxes?
B12
October 10th, 2012
8:00 am
The 90 minutes of unfiltered debate turned the Democrat’s $350,000,000 (that’s MILLION!) propaganda campaign to demonize Romney upside down. That’s the power of free speech in a true democracy. Thank you Mr. Romney!!
VP debate live thread: Biden vs. Ryan | Kyle Wingfield
October 11th, 2012
5:02 pm
[...] Monday, I wrote about the expectations factor in last week’s first presidential debate. I think that could [...]