I’m back — with a different view of the first debate
The Blue Screen of Death greeted me at the office this morning, suggesting my laptop wasn’t ready for its autumn vacation to end. Nonetheless, albeit belatedly …
I’m back.
It was a good trip, but it’s even better to get back here right in the swing of the election season, with just under a month to go until election time.
The big story while I was gone, of course, was last week’s debate between Mitt Romney and Clint Eastwood’s Empty Chair President Obama. The consensus is that Romney won handily, and the opinion polls show a much-tightened race as a result: Not only is Obama’s lead in the Real Clear Politics average of polls down to just 1.1 percentage point, but Romney is up to his highest level in the past year, over 47 percent on average.
Without getting into details from the debate’s exchanges which y’all have probably already read many times during the past several days, I do want to make one observation. I watched the debate in its entirety on CNN International, but not until it was rebroadcast about 10 hours later. Just before the replay began, CNN ran through the day’s headlines — including the belief among analysts and even a snap poll of undecided viewers that Romney was the runaway winner. Intrigued, my dad and I watched with the expectation of a blow-out performance by Romney. I think it’s fair to say we both thought he won the debate, but not as easily as we’d been led to believe.
As I understand it, this contrasts significantly with the expectations set for most Americans who watched it live. From what I hear, the lead-up to the debate framed it more as the beginning of a month-long wake for Romney’s campaign. His lack of a convention bounce and much-parsed comments about the “47 percent” had all but snuffed out his chances, and the eloquent Mr. Obama would finish him off by verbally slicing and dicing him before a national TV audience.
Maybe that’s a bit exaggerated, but here’s the point: Expectations matter. If you’re conditioned to believe Obama’s going to flatten Romney in the debate, then watch as Romney is energetic and aggressive while Obama drones on and spends much of his time looking down at the lectern, you’re likely to believe Romney seriously over-performed. Had the pundits beforehand proclaimed Romney as the heavy favorite, his actual performance might not have lived up to it.
Again, I thought Romney really did get the better of Obama. But as we head into the remaining debates — particularly including Thursday’s vice presidential debate, in which Paul Ryan is widely expected to have his way with the malapropism-prone Joe Biden — this is a reminder to be aware of how the expectations game colors actual performances.
– By Kyle Wingfield
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222 comments Add your comment
JamVet
October 8th, 2012
8:13 pm
Concession speech, td?
Jeez son, at least quit Joe Bidening me and come up with your own shtick. (Maybe Dennis Miller, the world’s worst comedian can help you out!)
And yes, I am working on what kind of popcorn I’m going to eat while you are eating Romney crow Tuesday night, November 6. Yummy!
A thousand word essay on your part will be sufficient. (And I do not grade on a curve!)
PROUD NAVY VET
October 8th, 2012
8:14 pm
Fred, don’t think you got away with one. Gov. Romney hadf a great night, for sure. He really moved th the center. Nothing like he has been saying for the past year. Admit it or not there were some serious 180’s done. As for his speech today, who would want to arm the rebels? You have no idea who the bad guys are and who the good guys are. The weapons the Gov. wantds to give them will be used on us and or our allies. Serious lack of thought went into that one.
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
October 8th, 2012
8:14 pm
because of duty or death in combat.
The dead vote in Chicago, why not in the military, at least they earned the right to have their voices heard beyond the grave.
td
October 8th, 2012
8:15 pm
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer’s ineptocracy
October 8th, 2012
8:11 pm
Amen to them counting more.
Del
October 8th, 2012
8:15 pm
Ah yes the candy azzed ball less name changer from the far-left blog is trolling over here again. What a pathetic waste.
Jeff
October 8th, 2012
8:16 pm
Fred, Biden is a fiesty old tome politician and does not mind bending the truth but in a debate watch out. Other wise, One day I hope to meet you and kick you in the shin…
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
October 8th, 2012
8:18 pm
Nothing like he has been saying for the past year. Admit it or not there were some serious 180’s done.
Proud Navy Vet
Not a true statement, just a talking point. Name one of the 180’s. You didn’t know anything about what Romney was for before the debate, except what you heard the Dims say he was for. You believed all the Dem talking points and the Obama character assaults. I have been following him since before Iowa, he has not changed one position.
Gravy Train
October 8th, 2012
8:26 pm
No, I listened to what Willard said before the debate. He would gauge the crowd and open his mouth. Obama didn’t make him say what he says. Even Newt pointed out Willard’s aversion from the truth and his shady business practices. That would be followed by back tracking for the next couple of days. Very much like how Willard is spending his time after the debate trying to distance himself from his 47% comments. So, was he lying then or now? I can tell you exactly when Willard is lying. If his lips are moving, he is lying.
Del
October 8th, 2012
8:31 pm
The ignorant along with the far-tools have accepted this desperate Obama campaign mantra that Romney’s a “liar” but they’re in the minority and most of them know it and fear it accept for a few.
Del
October 8th, 2012
8:32 pm
OOP’s far-left tools.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
October 8th, 2012
8:33 pm
I can tell you exactly when Gravy Train isn’t thinking – it’s when he’s typing on a keyboard.
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
October 8th, 2012
8:34 pm
Del
I have noticed that none of them want to point out what Romney is lying about. Guess they don’t want their talking point destroyed.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
October 8th, 2012
8:35 pm
“Admit it or not there were some serious 180’s done.”
Really, Navy Vet?
Name 3 with actual proof, rather than what an Obama supporter claimed Romney said or did.
Del
October 8th, 2012
8:38 pm
Rafe, isn’t it amazing that the lie allegations have been proven mostly false yet the left continues with this desperate charade.
Patty
October 8th, 2012
8:41 pm
Gravy Train, all I read when you blog is bah, bah, bah. Calling people names isn’t going to change anyone’s mind especially when all anyone has to do is check the facts on the internet.
My oldest daughter has decided not to vote this year which means Mr. Obama will lose at least one vote this year. Her reasoning–she’s too busy working extra shifts trying to survive.
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
October 8th, 2012
8:42 pm
The BIG LIE that was floated for weeks and weeks was that Romney was going to raise taxes on the middle class by $2000. This was made up of whole cloth by the Obamabots. Romney shot that down the first 90 seconds and Barry never challenged him on it. He said he was not going to raise taxes on anyone, unlike Obama.
td
October 8th, 2012
8:46 pm
Del
October 8th, 2012
8:38 pm
Rafe, isn’t it amazing that the lie allegations have been proven mostly false yet the left continues with this desperate charade.
Kind of like the Princeton Professor that came out today and said Obama was misrepresenting (lying) his study about Romney’s tax cuts.
Linda
October 8th, 2012
8:46 pm
Del@8:11, After an WMD attack on the US, we can meet it “with nuclear retaliation & annihilation?” Yeah, right. After we’re dead?
The Obama adm. refused to impose sanctions on Iran for years. The sanctions currently in place against Iran were insisted on by congress, with the Obama adm. kicking & screaming. The Obama adm. has given upteen waivers to countries to counteract the sanctions.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/14/us-usa-iran-sanctions-idUSBRE88D1KH20120914
We are as good as dead if Obama is re-elected.
Del
October 8th, 2012
8:46 pm
“Barry never challenged him on it. He said he was not going to raise taxes on anyone, unlike Obama.”
The Obummer didn’t challenge Romney face to face but he’s doing so now safely away from the debate. Talk about lack of character…geez
Thulsa Doom
October 8th, 2012
8:50 pm
Del,
Your first mistake was mentioning Obama and the word character in the same post.
JamVet
October 8th, 2012
8:50 pm
We are as good as dead if Obama is re-elected.
Prepare the fainting couch!!! The drama queen is gonna swoon!!!
(And tell that to Osama bin Laden. LOL!)
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
October 8th, 2012
8:52 pm
Del,
He just couldn’t challenge Mitt at the debate because Jim Lehrer was so mean, you know.
Obama was born with an excuse and blame on his lips. As soon as he could speak, he told his mother, “its all your fault”.
iggy
October 8th, 2012
8:53 pm
Ryan is gonna smash Biden. Its gonna be a Grand Spanking for the VIP.
Thulsa Doom
October 8th, 2012
9:00 pm
“Ryan is gonna smash Biden. Its gonna be a Grand Spanking for the VIP.”
Depends on how you look at it. In comedic terms Joe Gaffe Biden wins hands down. I mean seriously. Is there anyone that says as much funny stuff without even trying to sound funny? I laugh in expectation of laughing at whatever is going to come out of his mouth next.
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
October 8th, 2012
9:02 pm
o’biden gonna look like he got hit by a freight train and then the second question of the debate will be asked, and well, farewell ole joe.
jtom
October 8th, 2012
9:10 pm
There is no reason to debate who lies.
“I promise 100% transparency in my administration.”
“I promise NO NEW TAXES on a family making less than $250K a year.”
“I will allow 5 days of public comment before I sign any bills.”
“I will remove earmarks from PORK projects before I sign any bill.”
“I will end Income Tax for seniors making less than $50K a year.”
“I will bring ALL of our troops home within ONE year….”
“I’ll put the Health Care negotiations on CSPAN so everyone can see who is at the table!”
“I’ll have no lobbyists in my administration.”
“I’ll close Guantanamo.”
“I’ll resign if I don’t cut the deficit in half by the end of four years.”
“I’ll unite the people of this great country.”
“I believe that marriage is the union between a man and a woman.”
Now, what were some of you saying about President-about-to-be-elected Romney?
Reasonable man
October 8th, 2012
9:15 pm
Which Romney am I supposed to support? The one who’s for Romneycare or the one who’s against Obamacare? The one who wants to double down on the war in Afghanistan, the one who wants to pull out, or the new one who wants to listen to what the generals tell him and decide later? The one who supports a woman’s right to choose, or the one who believes that a fertilized egg deserves personhood? The one who wants to cut taxes or the one who wants to do away with deductions, such as the mortgage interest deductions? The one who wants to cut Federal spending or the one who thinks we need to increase military spending? All these Romneys have good hair and straight teeth, but that’s about the only common factor I can find.
Linda
October 8th, 2012
9:17 pm
Osama bin Ladan Is Dead & GM is Alive!
After the DNC was wrapping up, the Dems. were marking down the prices of their bumper stickers & other junk that didn’t sell, when, low & behold, they started getting calls from all over the Middle East & N. Africa with orders for their wares, especially those bumper stickers, with specific requests that they be shipped for arrival before 9/11/12.
What a sight that our embassies were targeted & burned on 9/11 & our ambassador & 3 others were murdered & others were injured by terrorists who had stickers from the DNC stuck on their weapons that read “Osama bin Laden Is Dead & GM is Alive!”
Terrorists think GM is Government Media, which it is.
Just imagine what will happen in the Middle East & N. Africa when the Obama Adm.-helped movie premiers on his (permission) killing of OBL!
Reasonable man
October 8th, 2012
9:20 pm
Linda, your tinfoil hat needs a tiny bit of adjusting.
Cherokee
October 8th, 2012
9:45 pm
“in which Paul Ryan is widely expected to have his way with the malapropism-prone Joe Biden ”
Only in the vast right wing fever swamp….
td
October 8th, 2012
9:50 pm
Not in this Conservatives mind. Bidden killed both Obama and Clinton in 2008 in every debate they had. Bidden is very experienced and will come out as an attack dog. I am hoping he will be so rabid that the foam will be flowing out of his mouth and someone will have to put him down.
Linda
October 8th, 2012
9:53 pm
The Romney to support is the only Romney , the one who:
* believes that it is the states, not the fed. govt., that have the right to implement health care insurance,
* will consult with the generals & defense dept. heads who know how & when to pull out of a war, rather than basing decisions on a purely political strategy,
* the one who believes that the Declaration Of Independence protects the rights of Life, etc. vs. Obama who advocated & voted 3 times in the Ill. Senate against having a second doctor on call in the event an aborted child actually survived,
* the one who wants to cut taxes & downsize the fed. govt. or Obama who has implemented the largest tax increase via Obamacare in the history of the US,
* the one who proposes not just to cut fed. spending but to increase revenues by growing the number of employed taxpayers & therefore, the GDP.
Thulsa Doom
October 8th, 2012
10:02 pm
td,
I saw Biden debate Palin in 08 and while Palin sucked Biden wasn’t any better. He said thing after thing that simply wasn’t true. The guy was pretty fast and loose with the facts. He wouldn’t know a fact if it jumped up and bit him in the butt.
td
October 8th, 2012
10:12 pm
Thulsa Doom
October 8th, 2012
10:02 pm
And he will do the same Thursday night with more zeal and the LSM will not say one word about his facts and just declare him the (big time) winner.
Linda
October 8th, 2012
10:16 pm
I’ve told my husband that Biden seems to have practiced his previous speeches in front of the mirror. All of his speeches have been given in front of the Dem. minions, squealing for more stuff & satisfied they will get exactly that.
The largest mirrors are usually in the bathroom. What happens when Biden gets to the debate & there’s no minions as well as no mirrors, no sinks, no faucets, no soap, no towels, no wifey stuff laying around on mirrored trays?
Ryan has a closed-mouth smile that is all-knowing.
All Biden has to do is talk for the entire 60 or 90-minute debate. Ryan needs to say nothing, just smile. Then it will be over & out.
Hope Biden at least knows what state he is in. Bless his heart.
MarkV
October 8th, 2012
10:21 pm
Dusty @ 5:10 pm: “MarkV…..Romney did NOT lie in the debate. Take that back!!”
Sorry, Dusty. I will not, Romney lied. You may argue that many of the statements were “half-truths” or misleading statement s(and there were many of those) that cannot be called literally lies. However, when a candidate spends so much time preparing his arguments for a debate, it is not believable that something he said he did not mean exactly what and how he said it. For instance, when Romney said
“I think about half of [the green firms Obama invested in], of the ones have been invested in have gone out of business,”
and the actual fact is that three out of the 26 recipients of the loan guarantees have filed for bankruptcy, do the words “I think” make it something different than a lie?
But let’s take an example where not even the “I think” was used:
“The president’s put it in place as much public debt — almost as much debt held by the public as all prior presidents combined.”
When Obama took office, the accumulated public debt was over $10 trillion. Now the debt is over $16 trillion. Tell me, Dusty, is the difference between 16 and 10 equal almost 10 in your math?
Romney: “Right now, the CBO says up to 20 million people will lose their insurance as Obamacare goes into effect next year.”
False.
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2012/oct/04/mitt-romney/mitt-romney-says-20-million-will-lose-health-insur/
Romney about Obamacare: “[I]t puts in place an unelected board that’s going to tell people ultimately what kind of treatments they can have.
A bald-face lie.
td
October 8th, 2012
10:41 pm
“The Pew poll is devastating, just devastating. Before the debate, Obama had a 51 – 43 lead; now, Romney has a 49 – 45 lead. That’s a simply unprecedented reversal for a candidate in October. Before Obama had leads on every policy issue and personal characteristic; now Romney leads in almost all of them. Obama’s performance gave Romney a 12 point swing! I repeat: a 12 point swing.
Romney’s favorables are above Obama’s now. Yes, you read that right. Romney’s favorables are higher than Obama’s right now. That gender gap that was Obama’s firewall? Over in one night:”
http://andrewsullivan.thedailybeast.com/2012/10/did-obama-just-throw-the-entire-election-away.html
Gravy Train
October 8th, 2012
10:46 pm
Willard got lucky. President Obama was trying not to be the aggressor. Now that Willard has fired his blanks, President Obama is within his place to fight back. Boy Blunder Ryan is an Ayn Rand ditto-head and he’s going to have to explain why he cries about the stimulus package when he also lobbied for his own share of it then. He’s going to have to explain how vouchers are beneficial to those who will be retiring soon. See, real math doesn’t work with vouchers unless the insurance companies policy rates are regulated. Seeing as how it’s the insurance companies lobbying the hardest for vouchers, plus Willard’s distaste of regulation, that would equal a system where people continue to live at the mercy of health insurance corporations. Wacko Cult Priest Plutocrat with False Bravado Willard has done his star turn. Obama will bring the hammer. In the privacy of the booth, people will consider Willard’s shady finances, cult leadership, phony personality and flip-flopping. They will know that no matter how bad Willard tries to make it sound, America is a much better country today than it was in 2008.
Reality
October 8th, 2012
10:47 pm
If you read the actual scripts from the debate, Romney didn’t do so hot. Romney lied often and/or at least stretched the truth. Obama’s message was the same.
The difference was the delivery.
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
October 8th, 2012
10:56 pm
How funny is it that the dummycrats are counting on osama bin biden to undo the annihilation that Romney hung around obozo’s neck?
Has o’biden become the clean and articulate One?
Will goofy joe be the savior of the white trash?
Does it get any better than this?
I sure hope not.
td
October 8th, 2012
11:02 pm
Reality
October 8th, 2012
10:47 pm
Lied about what? Even the Princeton Professor told Obama today to stop using his study because it supports Romney.
Linda
October 8th, 2012
11:12 pm
Isn’t it funny that the minions have only been able to muster one-liners, that is, an average of one complete sentence, maybe, over on the cult blog, for the last couple of years, but now, they are over on the conservative Kyle blog, and are able to muster 3 & 4 inch comments, without any meaning? Appears like desperation to me. My goodness.
Reasonable man
October 8th, 2012
11:12 pm
Well, Linda, the Romney you describe is the Tea Party Romney that you support. You can only have that Romney if his monied investors allow it. I know they’ll go along with letting companies increase pollution emissions and cutting taxes for the uber-rich. They’ll also want to get us into some new wars, as wars are very profitable. As for the rest of your agenda, maybe he’ll get around to it.
ODD OWL
October 8th, 2012
11:12 pm
Romney/Ryan are hypothetical hypocrites… First class liars… Absolutely no credibility, no integrity and no plan… Its all about raw power with them… Romney/Ryan lacks judgement and character… Both of them of shameless baldface liars… You Republicans are hell bent on destroying America, aren’t you ??? There is a video of Herr paul Von Broun going straight up Taliban on us… A total Religious fanatic… Paul Broun must be replaced…
Towncrier
October 8th, 2012
11:19 pm
“Isn’t it funny that the minions have only been able to muster one-liners, that is, an average of one complete sentence, maybe, over on the cult blog, for the last couple of years, but now, they are over on the conservative Kyle blog, and are able to muster 3 & 4 inch comments, without any meaning?”
Sometimes, less is more
Towncrier
October 8th, 2012
11:20 pm
“Willard got lucky.”
ROFL.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
October 8th, 2012
11:28 pm
I see that Mr. Wordsmith is back picking apart each and every line Mitt Romney said, and more importantly, ascribing intent behind Romney’s words with (once again) no proof whatsoever.
Amazing how these people who never met the guy and have no clue about their preparation know so much about what they intended to say and do.
Once again, the lofty goals of perfection these liberals put on any candidate for office other than their chosen one is simply unattainable, but gives them their excuse for not voting for the other guy, not matter how failed their guy is, or how much better the other guy is.
ODD OWL
October 8th, 2012
11:31 pm
Towncrier 11:20… All style, no substance… If Romney somehow became President, he would start wars with all of America’s allies within three months… The only thing in the world more dangerous than ignorance is arrogance… (Albert Einstein) Einstein assigned this epithet to Adolf Hitler… I’m assigning it to Romney/Ryan…
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
October 8th, 2012
11:31 pm
” I know they’ll go along with letting companies increase pollution emissions ”
Yeah, ’cause polluting the air we breathe is such a great thing to run on for re-election, “reasonable man”.
If only you could appreciate the ridiculousness of your statements as those of us with working brains do.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
October 8th, 2012
11:34 pm
“If Romney somehow became President, he would start wars with all of America’s allies within three months”
My last line to “reasonable man” applies to you as well, ODD OWL, for the above statement.