I’m back — with a different view of the first debate
The Blue Screen of Death greeted me at the office this morning, suggesting my laptop wasn’t ready for its autumn vacation to end. Nonetheless, albeit belatedly …
I’m back.
It was a good trip, but it’s even better to get back here right in the swing of the election season, with just under a month to go until election time.
The big story while I was gone, of course, was last week’s debate between Mitt Romney and Clint Eastwood’s Empty Chair President Obama. The consensus is that Romney won handily, and the opinion polls show a much-tightened race as a result: Not only is Obama’s lead in the Real Clear Politics average of polls down to just 1.1 percentage point, but Romney is up to his highest level in the past year, over 47 percent on average.
Without getting into details from the debate’s exchanges which y’all have probably already read many times during the past several days, I do want to make one observation. I watched the debate in its entirety on CNN International, but not until it was rebroadcast about 10 hours later. Just before the replay began, CNN ran through the day’s headlines — including the belief among analysts and even a snap poll of undecided viewers that Romney was the runaway winner. Intrigued, my dad and I watched with the expectation of a blow-out performance by Romney. I think it’s fair to say we both thought he won the debate, but not as easily as we’d been led to believe.
As I understand it, this contrasts significantly with the expectations set for most Americans who watched it live. From what I hear, the lead-up to the debate framed it more as the beginning of a month-long wake for Romney’s campaign. His lack of a convention bounce and much-parsed comments about the “47 percent” had all but snuffed out his chances, and the eloquent Mr. Obama would finish him off by verbally slicing and dicing him before a national TV audience.
Maybe that’s a bit exaggerated, but here’s the point: Expectations matter. If you’re conditioned to believe Obama’s going to flatten Romney in the debate, then watch as Romney is energetic and aggressive while Obama drones on and spends much of his time looking down at the lectern, you’re likely to believe Romney seriously over-performed. Had the pundits beforehand proclaimed Romney as the heavy favorite, his actual performance might not have lived up to it.
Again, I thought Romney really did get the better of Obama. But as we head into the remaining debates — particularly including Thursday’s vice presidential debate, in which Paul Ryan is widely expected to have his way with the malapropism-prone Joe Biden — this is a reminder to be aware of how the expectations game colors actual performances.
– By Kyle Wingfield
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222 comments Add your comment
Towncrier
October 8th, 2012
5:00 pm
“He’s just not all that confident in his positions until he’s told what they are.”
Yes…once liberals get away from the Universal Mind (and its “talking points”), they are “unplugged” and (so to speak) out of the Matrix.
Del
October 8th, 2012
5:00 pm
The only thing that’s saved Obama from falling precipitously behind Romney after the debates was the dip in unemployment percentage. While I don’t accept the conspiracy theory the household survey of 500 hundred or so households certainly was inaccurate and a disconnect between unemployment and new job creation.
JamVet
October 8th, 2012
5:09 pm
Alright, it took exactly one post to get a rise out of tibby!
Do I own the guy or what?!
Tibs, keep your powder and your diapers dry for 2016!
Dusty
October 8th, 2012
5:10 pm
Well, I knew it was a holiday but I did not know it was Milqtoast Day. Besides, we all know the BRAVES WON that last game!! Anyway, enjoy the tea party. I’m kinda busy right now.
(MarkV…..Romney did NOT lie in the debate. Take that back!!)
Thomas Heyward Jr
October 8th, 2012
5:16 pm
One TARP/NDAA supporting Neo-con versus the other TARP/NDAA supporting Neo-con.
Who cares?
.
Decent Americans(and the majority) will vote otherwise.
.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
October 8th, 2012
5:16 pm
Tell us just how accurate you were in predicting the 2010 elections and special elections, AmVet (and don’t lie, because we know how off you were), and then make your case that we should believe any predictions you make in 2012.
This should be good for a laugh . . .
Towncrier
October 8th, 2012
5:20 pm
“Alright, it took exactly one post to get a rise out of tibby! Do I own the guy or what?!”
So…your objective on blogs is to get a “rise” out of people? Is that what “Snoop Dogg” (doesn’t that name speak volumes?) was doing in saying Romney is a Mormon without any “hoes” or was that a liberal “argument”?
Towncrier
October 8th, 2012
5:21 pm
“Tell us just how accurate you were in predicting the 2010 elections and special elections, AmVet (and don’t lie, because we know how off you were), and then make your case that we should believe any predictions you make in 2012.”
ROFL.
ODD OWL
October 8th, 2012
5:31 pm
Gov. Mittens Romney didn’t offer anything new during the debate last week… Romney told the same lies that he has been telling for the last two years.. Romney presented his lies in an agreesive manner with vigor and enthusiasm but it was all style and no substance… The 70 million viewers figure seem to be important to you non rich Republicans… But i would guess that as many as 300 million American viewers watched Mittens Romney spew lies with reckless abandon, during the 23 debates that he participated in during the Republican Presidential primaries… Gov. Romney is disingenuous and intellectually dishonest… Romney is a habitual, pathological liar… Newt Gingrich said that Romney was a liar… Romney walked out onto the debate stage, shook-up the etch-a-sketch and shape shifted into a bleeding heart, left wing, liberal, limousine riding, Rockefeller Republican… Romney reverse his positions on nearly every issue.. Romney is on both sides of all issues… President FDR talked about the way Republicans attempt to co-opt Democrats ideas and legislative agenda and claim that they created them.. The Republicans even attempted to co-opt and claim credit for social security and the other NEW DEAL programs that President FDR and the Democrats got through Congress without a single Republican vote… The more things change, the more they stay the same…The braindead Republicans don’t have any ideas or a plan that would benefit non rich Americans… The Republican politicians are the lap dogs of the rich and elite… Hey Johnny
one note” Boehner.. Where is that jobs bill you promised America two years ago ??? … Boehner is a lazy, shiftless laggard.. He need to get the lead out… Romney is a stylish, ruthless,flip-flopping, corporate boss, who will say anything to get elected… A shyster in an empty, shiny suit…
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
October 8th, 2012
5:39 pm
I think we can safely say that ODD OWL (and the “odd” part is certainly true) isn’t changing his vote anytime soon.
Kyle Wingfield
October 8th, 2012
5:41 pm
JamVet @ 4:48: Who says 98% to 2%? You?
In the RCP average, Obama’s lead has gone from 3.1 points on Oct. 3 (the day of the debate) to 0.5 points now, or a 2.6-point swing. And Romney actually leads by 1.3 points, a 4.4-point swing, if you look only at polls taken since the debate.
If each swing state moved by the same number of points — I’m not predicting that will happen, just giving you an illustration — a 2.6-point swing would take Romney to 257 EVs. A 4.4-point swing would take him to 281 EVs. Of course, you need 270 to win. A swing of more than 3 points is the magic number, as Romney currently trails by 3 in Ohio (the average of the two post-debate polls there is a tie).
Things will change again between now and then. But your confidence, I think, is excessive.
getalife
October 8th, 2012
5:42 pm
Dusty,
The Braves had a problem throwing the ball.
miit lied through his false teeth and ran away from his tax plan but when Americans focus on style with no substance, the best liar will win.
mitt won.
Linda
October 8th, 2012
5:43 pm
The debate reminded me of a movie. Obama spent millions in advertising dollars he mustered up from his fictional Hollywood friends, depicting Romney as a Scarecrow (straw man), a Tin Man (aloof) & a Cowardly Lion, all in one. Turns out Romney had brains, a heart & courage from the get-go. Romney was a tornado whereas Obama’s demeanor was as if he was repeating to himself that “there’s no place like home.”
Toto saved the day again by pulling back the curtain & exposing the Wizard of Oz as a fraud.
I don’t know about ya’ll but I’m wearing red high heels to the polls.
td
October 8th, 2012
5:50 pm
Linda
October 8th, 2012
5:43 pm
“I don’t know about ya’ll but I’m wearing red high heels to the polls.”
You go Linda. I can not see me getting into high heels.
bullwinkle
October 8th, 2012
5:53 pm
Romney’s a great salesman, and the debates put him in your living room. He sticks to the points he knows will resonate, he pre-emptively dissembles to counter any doubts (”my plan does cover pre-existing conditions”) and he exudes a sort of glib empathy – and does it with a straight face KNOWING there is video evidence that he possesses not the least bit of empathy for nearly half the country that he considers personally irresponsible. Which means he’ll win.
Tom(Independent Viet Vet-USAF)
October 8th, 2012
5:53 pm
OddOwl@5:31 – Nice comment about Speaker Boehner, so I guess you think a lot less of him than say Princess Pelosi and King Harry Reid?
Tom(Independent Viet Vet-USAF)
October 8th, 2012
5:55 pm
Fred – I note a couple of nice posts by you here today. Are you ok? By the way I thought your posts were on the money.
Towncrier
October 8th, 2012
6:04 pm
“JamVet @ 4:48: Who says 98% to 2%? You?”
Exactly. But don’t look for a defense of his post against your rebuttal. None will be forthcoming. It seems he prefers to “get a rise” out of people above attempting to make an argument, probably because he is better at the former than the latter.
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
October 8th, 2012
6:08 pm
Welcome back Kyle, great to have you here.
Romney did not read from the script as Obama planned. He actually was able to speak to the American people for the first time since the primaries, and explained his positions. Obama does not have those problems, everything he says is picked up by the Media and commented on, slobbered over, and any errors covered up. Surprise, Romney’s positions were not anywhere near what Obama had been claiming they were. Obama had been watching his own ads on how harmful Romney’s positions were and he believed his own ads.
Battleground Poll has independents going for Romney big time. Before the debates the Dems had started celebrating their inevitable victory. Romney now has the tail wind!
Linda
October 8th, 2012
6:14 pm
Speaking of the Princess & continuing with my movie analysis, there’s a job opening at a broom factory for a test pilot. Ding-Dong!
Speaking of the King & continuing with my move analysis, there’s a job opening at a Vegas casino for a flying monkey. Dong-Dang!
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
October 8th, 2012
6:17 pm
Odd Owl
Romney reverse his positions on nearly every issue.. Romney is on both sides of all issues…
Name one, I didn’t see any reversals. Obama has spent four years changing his mind on Gitmo closing, on extending the tax cuts, on Gay Marriage, on reducing the deficit by half… on…..
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
October 8th, 2012
6:21 pm
Remember, Rafe, people like ODD OWL, AmVet and MarkV believe the Obama and mainstream media version of Romney because it fits their world-view. They can’t be bothered to investigate the facts behind an opposing candidate because they then would have no reason to blindly vote for their chosen ones.
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
October 8th, 2012
6:29 pm
You are right, Tiberius, Obama always uses a straw man as the basis for his arguments. He builds this straw man with the positions and characteristics that he can verbally defeat. He had crafted a wonderful, Romney strawman/bogie man that the media and the Obamabots latched onto. I think the politicos call this defining your opponent, but Romney didn’t play along. Romney, as I said, just did not follow the script Obama had laid out for him. Barry was clueless and did not know what to say, because the script had changed.
JamVet
October 8th, 2012
6:31 pm
William the crier, I do not engage Tibby the whiner. I make NO posts either directed at him or that even reference him. As was the case today. The man simply cannot help himself; he is drawn to me like a moth to a flame.
So as always the laugh is on him and you; that you two are so utterly obsessed with my useless opinions. Talk about knee-jerk! One can just picture him reading my name and instantly and maniacally pounding out some unprovoked insult.
Hysterical…
ld
October 8th, 2012
6:36 pm
Kyle (and other Republicans): as you savor the new polls, thought you’d like to hear another great “Republican” idea:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/08/charlie-fuqua-arkansas-candidate-death-penalty-rebellious-children_n_1948490.html?show_comment_id=194350469#comment_194350469
Towncrier
October 8th, 2012
6:46 pm
“William the crier, I do not engage Tibby the whiner. I make NO posts either directed at him or that even reference him. As was the case today. The man simply cannot help himself; he is drawn to me like a moth to a flame.”
People acting like fools attract the attention of others – why do you think people watch shows like Jerry Springer? Similarly, when you make inane and vapid assertions and run away when you are challenged factually by (in this instance, Kyle), you appear the fool. And no one likes to suffer fools.
kelley Thomas
October 8th, 2012
6:54 pm
Did your delayed CNN coverage also send over the best summation of all, so aptly tweeted by Dennis Miller: “I hope Obamacare covers ass kicking.” I don’t know where you and your dad were in the world, but not to see this as the content-packed, step-by-step planning and thinking advancement by Romney (finally!)…you guys must have been jet lagged. Welcome home.
splavistic
October 8th, 2012
6:59 pm
Unfortunately, for the gop, it still doesn’t matter. Obama leads by a wiiiiiiide margin in the betting circles (they ain’t takin’ chances, here!) AND the all electoral college polls (10,000 simulations run each night give Obama a 78% chance of winning).
So, enjoy the “coverage”, but the media is just duping both sides into tuning into what is already a given. Obama will have a second term.
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
October 8th, 2012
7:01 pm
Two weeks off and Wingnut misses the entire point in his first blog post.
All Romney had to do was appear to be a normal, well adjusted decent human being while letting obozo doodle on his note pad and regurgitate the most worn out, inane moonbat talking points he could remember, on cue.
Uh, this game is ova.
And it only took 60 some odd posts for Jamvet to descend back into the hysterical name calling that he’ll be criticizing others for later this evening.
JamVet
October 8th, 2012
7:08 pm
Jeez, crier, at least let Tibby fight his own fights.
Are you his weird protective uncle Ernie or something?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x51jI2RHCrM
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
October 8th, 2012
7:09 pm
AmVet: “I make NO posts either directed at him or that even reference him.”
And yet, you’ve made two already today that have referenced me.
What a maroon!
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
October 8th, 2012
7:10 pm
Ooops! Make that three . . .
JamVet
October 8th, 2012
7:20 pm
YOU are the one who made the unprovoked insult. Before that I made NO posts directed at you or that even referenced you.
Though you do it exceedingly well…don’t play stupid.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
October 8th, 2012
7:26 pm
Three references AND a post made back to me, AmVet.
Was this: “I make NO posts either directed at him or that even reference him.” a lie, or an error?
C’mon, big boy, answer my earlier question. Tell us how wrong you were in your predictions for the 2010 elections and special elections, and then make your case as to why we should pay any attention to your predictions in 2012.
Linda
October 8th, 2012
7:32 pm
td@5:50, I didn’t say WHERE I was planning to wear my red high heels. Might not be on my feet.
Haven’t been able to see the numbers on my favorite watch for years, but still wear it so people know I can tell time & think I can see without any problems.
catlady
October 8th, 2012
7:32 pm
We should all be very, very frightened.
td
October 8th, 2012
7:33 pm
JamVet
October 8th, 2012
7:20 pm
Are you working on that concession speech or are you going to be a coward and not make it?
td
October 8th, 2012
7:34 pm
Linda
October 8th, 2012
7:32 pm
You go Linda:-) Keep up the good work.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
October 8th, 2012
7:36 pm
“We should all be very, very frightened.”
Correct. We SHOULD be frightened that Obama might get re-elected.
Linda
October 8th, 2012
7:37 pm
Suggestion for name of Kyle’s first published book: Arguing with Liberals: How I Got High Blood Pressure, Atrial Fibrillation & Corns.
Del
October 8th, 2012
7:39 pm
ODD OWL, Quit crying and try to be a man or a woman of backbone.
Del
October 8th, 2012
7:43 pm
There appears to be a few cases of megalomania who’ve infiltrated Kyles blog.
Linda
October 8th, 2012
7:46 pm
Frightened Obama would be re-elected? My husband & I are so assured that Romney will be elected that we are already boarding up our windows. It will be frightening, no matter who is elected.
What’s the most frightening is if Obama is re-elected & allows Iran to get nuclear weapons & carries out it’s threat to the US. Thank God we don’t live in the NE US.
Gravy Train
October 8th, 2012
7:50 pm
A fresh bottle of Schnapps and away she goes…LOL, always the same small group of old, white xenophobes. And then there is the old, white, troglodyte, Log Cabin Republican, magic underwear cult member. LOL And they wonder why their membership continues to dwindle?
Gravy Train
October 8th, 2012
7:55 pm
Eventually, Willard is going to have to explain the vast differences in his views to the American people on national television. Is he Crazy Cult Priest Willard, NE Liberal Willard, Tea Party Willard, Plutocrat dance on the backs of the poor Willard, or Super Action False Bravado Willard? How many times did he dodge the draft? How many of his sons will be fighting his wars?
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
October 8th, 2012
7:57 pm
Ah, the religious bigot is back. Good thing the libraries stay open late on weeknights.
td
October 8th, 2012
8:04 pm
“The professional core of the U.S. military overwhelmingly favors Mitt Romney over President Obama in the upcoming election — but not because of any particular military issues, according to a new poll of more than 3,100 active and reserve troops.
Respondents rated the economy and the candidates’ character as their most important considerations and all but ignored the war in Afghanistan as an issue of concern.
…Almost 80 percent of respondents have a college degree — including 27 percent with a graduate degree and more than 11 percent with a post-graduate degree — while an additional 18.5 percent have some college under their belts.
And they are battle-hardened; almost 29 percent have spent more than two cumulative years deployed since 9/11, while a similar percentage has spent one to two cumulative years deployed.
…Poll results indicate that about 66 percent of those surveyed support Romney, compared with about 26 percent who say they will vote to re-elect President Obama.
When asked about the most important issue guiding their vote this year, about 66 percent of respondents cited either “the economy” or “the character of the candidate.” Less than 16 percent of troops surveyed cited “national security.”
And the war in Afghanistan is barely a blip on the radar: Just more than 1 percent put that conflict at the top of their list of concerns. That’s in stark contrast to troops’ feelings about the war in Iraq in the Military Times 2008 election poll, when 16 percent cited that conflict as their top concern.
Pocketbook issues
“When I talk to my soldiers, it’s not social issues. It’s almost not even military issues. What it comes down to is pocketbook issues,” said one 28-year-old Army captain who took the survey in late September. “They currently see Mitt Romney as being stronger for their pocketbook.”
http://militarytimes.com/news/2012/10/military-times-poll-romney-bests-obama-2-1-100712/
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
October 8th, 2012
8:06 pm
Gravy Train
Is Barry the Black Preacher we saw in the 2007 Hampton Univ address, or the “first post racial President”, or the Narcoleptic Non combative stick in the mud we saw on 3 Oct, the middleclass’ last great hope, or the Wallstreet lackey?
Del
October 8th, 2012
8:11 pm
Linda, I think any sleeper cell attack would focus targets in the Southern U.S. and Mid-West. Because we’re spread thin and the expected targets are large population centers in the N.E. and coastal West. I would like for an administration to announce that any WMD attack on the United States or its protected territory’s would be met with nuclear retaliation and annihilation on any known state hostile to the U.S. Make that our succeeding M.A.D. doctrine for the times we live in now.
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
October 8th, 2012
8:11 pm
td
The results you cite will just motivate the Chicago political machine to double down on the Dims every four year assault on the military vote. They will go to no end to not count their ballots.
I think active duty military personnel votes should be counted by 5’s, to reward them for putting their lives on the line and to make reparations for those military personal not able to vote, because of duty of death in combat.