Is America in trouble no matter who wins the presidency?
Last Friday, I spoke to a local chapter of the Optimist Club. This Friday, I’m going to make sure no one who reads my blog can possibly have any shred of optimism remaining.
Just kidding. Sort of.
In an election season in which the presidential campaigns take turns making mistakes, making one wonder if either candidate really wants to win this thing, Sean Trende at Real Clear Politics lays out a case that neither side should want to win.
It’s the third in a three-part series; the first two installments were an argument for why Barack Obama will be re-elected, and an argument for why Mitt Romney will unseat him. The third piece boils down to: Be careful what you wish for.
Trende cites four factors that, at this point in time, suggest the winner of this election will see his party (or, in Romney’s case, himself) get rocked in the 2014 midterms and 2016 presidential election.
1. The economy. After reviewing the way we have not sprung back from the most recent recession the way we have from previous downturns, Trende notes:
Now consider that the average post-war business cycle lasts about six years from trough to trough. We hit our last trough in mid-2009, which means we should be due for another recession in the next few years.
We could easily begin to contract before we have fully recovered from the last recession. There are already signs that slowdowns in Europe and China are spilling over to our shores. This is probably too late to affect Obama’s re-election chances, but if it turns into a full-blown recession, it would greatly impact 2014 (when 11 Democrats are facing re-election in states that went for George W. Bush).
2. Debt. Here, Trende writes:
The current CBO projection assumes that we will add $3 trillion in debt over the next decade. But the reality is actually much, much worse than that. This assumes that we go off the famous “fiscal cliff” in December and allow all of the Bush tax cuts to expire, allow the full force of the alternative minimum tax to kick in, allow all of the spending cuts agreed to earlier this Congress to kick in, and greatly slash money paid to Medicare providers. Needless to say, if people see their taxes raised, their doctors stop accepting them for care, and we go into a recession, none of this will be popular.
If we assume Congress won’t allow this to occur, then we are looking at the CBO’s “alternate scenario.” It involves an additional $11 trillion in debt over the next few decades.
Even this latter scenario, he notes, is dependent on CBO’s rosy economic growth projections coming true — even though the economy has consistently underperformed CBO forecasts in recent years.
3. Health care. Trende notes that Obamacare is set to get cranked up in earnest in 2014. He imagines two scenarios:
If Obamacare doesn’t work — if seniors really suffer as a result of the benefit cuts to Medicare; if more people get thrown off their employer-sponsored insurance than expected; if insurers get put out of business because people opt to pay the tax rather than get insurance — it will not be a pretty political situation for Democrats.
Even if it works well, there will be problems. Unlike Medicare and Social Security, Obamacare creates obvious winners and losers. We then get to issues of salience: If people who are tossed onto the exchanges are angrier than people who are no longer denied care for pre-existing conditions are happy, there is a political problem for Democrats. If seniors strongly perceive the cuts to Medicare Advantage, but quickly forget about the “donut hole” being closed, there is a political problem for Democrats. There are dozens of such examples. Maybe they cancel each other out, but I wouldn’t bet the proverbial farm on it.
As for Republicans, Trende only maps out a scenario in which a President Romney and Congress repeal the law but don’t replace it with other reforms. Personally, I don’t think that’s the most realistic GOP scenario. But either way, he is probably right that Democrats will claim any shortcomings would have been better under Obamacare and will swing that club against Republicans early and often.
4. Iran. This, Trende says, doesn’t require a lot of theorizing:
In the next few years, one of two things will happen. Either Iran will develop a nuclear weapon, or Israel and the United States will forcibly stop Iran from developing a nuclear weapon.
No American president wants to be the one who oversees the former. And the disruptions that could ensue from the latter would be massive, especially in combination with any of the other factors listed above. Add in the continued difficulties we face in the region in general (as we saw last week), and the problems there are similarly insurmountable.
***
What does all this mean? Is Trende right that either Democrats or Republicans could “win by losing”?
From a purely electoral-politics perspective, maybe. Of course, that would mean neither man is up to the task of creating better outcomes to these challenges. Which is a pretty depressing thought.
But is it a correct thought? Should we really believe America is doomed for the next four years no matter what happens in November?
Let’s hear your arguments why Obama or Romney would avoid disaster on any or all of these four issues. Think of it as a Poll Position without the poll. Just answer in the thread below.
– By Kyle Wingfield
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798 comments Add your comment
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
September 21st, 2012
11:12 pm
“That is why I wait for the FBI report instead of falling for corporate media speculation.”
But your President’s mouthpiece has already confirmed that it was a planned terrorist attack, getalife.
Based on the confirmation by Fox News Channel sources.
Why do you insist on waiting for an FBI report, when your own administration has already confirmed what even moderately intelligent people knew from day 1?
Bruno
September 21st, 2012
11:12 pm
Special for Gravy Train:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I3ZLJj_q4xI
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
September 21st, 2012
11:16 pm
Always loved watching that last video, Bruno.
Laughed until I realized how sad and pathetic these people were (are).
And how truly stupid the majority of American voters were back then.
Gimme Gimme Gimme
September 21st, 2012
11:16 pm
Isn’t camping out on a blog just another form of trolling? It gets tiresome to read getalifes rants on here 24 hours a day.
getalife
September 21st, 2012
11:18 pm
aq did not take credit for it and they usually do.There are still armed to the teeth militias and some are Islamist radicals. That is why.
MarkV
September 21st, 2012
11:20 pm
“MarkV, picking apart someone’s grammar or writing style does not an opinion make.”
Poor Tiberius, he is so clueless he does not even know the difference between reading and writing.
getalife
September 21st, 2012
11:20 pm
“It gets tiresome to read getalifes rants on here 24 hours a day.”
Whaaaaaa.
Crybaby much?
Gimme Gimme Gimme
September 21st, 2012
11:21 pm
getalife-
get a life….what a perfect name for you.
getalife
September 21st, 2012
11:24 pm
Funny, I don’t post on this blog much but Kyle seemed down so I thought I would cheer him up.
Our country will be fine.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
September 21st, 2012
11:24 pm
Poor MarkV, he doesn’t know the difference between whining and debating.
But he’s got the whining part down pat.
HDB
September 21st, 2012
11:47 pm
Linda
September 21st, 2012
7:14 pm
First….apologies for my computer dropping the “l”…..unintentional sleight!
Second….when are RIGHTS to be voted upon? Part of the problem is that if rights are to be voted upon…the majority would continue to foster discrimination!! Remember, black people did not get full onstitutional protection by the BALLOT…but by the COURTS! The 14th Amendment provides equal protection under the law…..that presupposes that that an inequality exists! Also, if a nation recognizes gay marriage and the US recognizes that nation…..BY TREATY, that marriage is to be recognized! If ONE state recognizes gay marriage….BY THE CONSTITUTION under contract law..that marriage is to be recognized by ALL 50 states! What you advocate is persistent discrimination of American citizens……
MarkV
September 21st, 2012
11:47 pm
“MarkV, picking apart someone’s grammar or writing style does not an opinion make.”
Whining Tiberius style – not to mention unrelated to anything I have written.
Bruno
September 21st, 2012
11:49 pm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5RahniqUk7M
Everything we do with good intent
Won’t ever disappear, it only ripples into habit
Ever deep, cause it’s no accident
That you and I are here
And you and I were meant to happen
There’s one thing that I know
That’s like a gift unto the giver
And that’s a random act of love
Everyday find a cause
And let it flow just like a river
Into a random act of love
An open heart can change the world we know
Into a loving place
Reviving everything that’s givin’ in it
Every spark, another chance to grow
Let love illuminate
The place where light is dimming
There’s one thing, that I know
That’s like a gift unto the giver
And that’s a random act of love
Bruno
September 21st, 2012
11:57 pm
How ’bout some Sunshine by Matisyahu:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QPuU-iTIFoI
HDB
September 22nd, 2012
12:01 am
Linda…..as I stated..the COURTS are the arbiter of rights….
http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/05/31/11990019-appeals-court-denying-federal-benefits-to-same-sex-couples-is-unconstitutional?lite
A federal appeals court has ruled that the Defense of Marriage Act, a law that denies a host of federal benefits to same-sex married couples, is unconstitutional.
The 1st U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in Boston ruled Thursday that the act known as DoMA, which defines marriage as a union between a man and a woman, discriminates against gay couples.
Gravy Train
September 22nd, 2012
12:17 am
It’s too easy to get a rise out of old, white xenophobes. Bruno, if I go down to the local Waffle House and interview the “conservatives” there, how many could even locate Washington DC on a map, let alone identify all of the people your video covers? Hell, what’s your over/under on total amount of teeth? Interesting that they only found 12 Obama supporters. Looks like they cherry picked their interviewees to fit their obviously biased agenda. But you actually think Fox News is “fair and balanced” so I don’t expect you to understand complex concepts like biased agendas. Have fun fooling yourself, pops.
Bruno
September 22nd, 2012
12:18 am
Gotta go with some more R Kelly:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y6y_4_b6RS8
So baby gimme dat “Toot toot”
And lemme gi’ ya that “Beep beep”
Bruno
September 22nd, 2012
12:19 am
Hey GT–Good job on educating That Black Guy on what it means to be black earlier tonight. Only you could pull something like that off……..
Bruno
September 22nd, 2012
12:26 am
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NjCYs-tDscQ&playnext=1&list=PL3BE2E205C986E856&feature=results_video
Bruno
September 22nd, 2012
12:34 am
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VfW8yaDV0X8
Old Timer
September 22nd, 2012
12:53 am
It is like anything in life–if everything is going to the dumper try another approach. Electing Romney could not be any worse that what we are saddled with now. Remember it was Obama that said “Hope and Change”–which he has failed on. The world is burning around us and they outnumber us. Time for freeloaders to get off their hindends and help the country, not suck it dry. Being a Great Depression baby I learned that self preservation was paramount early in life.
Gravy Train
September 22nd, 2012
12:56 am
Come on now, any non-fictitious self respecting black man knows what a token black guy is. Let me give you an example that even a pea brain like you can understand: There is a black kid character on South Park. Guess what his name is? Token. It’s an ironic play on words because he is the only black kid on the show. So when you guys trot out one black person to speak at your convention as a supposed show of diversity, that person is the token black person, especially when there are none in the audience. Get it yet? To further prove my point:
to·ken·ism (tk-nzm)
n.
1. The policy of making only a perfunctory effort or symbolic gesture toward the accomplishment of a goal, such as racial integration.
2. The practice of hiring or appointing a token number of people from underrepresented groups in order to deflect criticism or comply with affirmative action rules: “Tokenism does not change stereotypes of social systems but works to preserve them, since it dulls the revolutionary impulse” (Mary Daly).
You can’t even pretend to be this stupid, can you? Be sure to point this out to your supposed black friend, who for today, is this blog’s token black guy.
Gravy Train
September 22nd, 2012
1:05 am
You don’t have to understand. The overwhelming majority of blacks do, and that’s what is most important. Who do you think they are voting for? (do I need to spoon feed you a poll?) Did I mention how fun it is to marvel at you guys? It’s a miracle you can even tie your shoes, let alone type out your drivel on these blogs. One last thing before I go:
“The demographics race we’re losing badly,” said Sen. Lindsey O. Graham (S.C.). “We’re not generating enough angry white guys to stay in business for the long term.”
As much as you would like to feign diversity, your parties true intentions get exposed time and again.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
September 22nd, 2012
6:19 am
“not to mention unrelated to anything I have written.”
Picking apart someone’s grammar or writing, while never stating your own opinion, is EVERYTHING you write about, MarkV.
Attack Dog
September 22nd, 2012
7:10 am
Yes. America was, is, and will be as long as there are people like John Boehner, Michele Bachmann, Steve King, Allen West, Tom Price, Todd Akin, and Darrell Issa, running up the federal debt, shirking the responsibilities by either “just saying yes,” being obstructionists, or passing trumped up bills, styming economic growth, causing our credit rating to drop, despising the 47%, throwing another 52% under the bus, and chasing windmills.
Uncle Billy
September 22nd, 2012
7:22 am
It should be clear by now that I rest in peace because Obama will carry Virginia, North Carolina, Florida and several other Confederate states.
Attack Dog
September 22nd, 2012
7:27 am
We haven’t heard conservaties rail about George Soros since it became known that the Koch Brothers have bought the Tea-Republican Party lock-stock-and barrel.
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
September 22nd, 2012
7:54 am
Mom-jeans should put truth above partisanship:
————————–
Democrats who argue for higher taxes on capital are advocating less investment and dooming workers to fewer jobs at lower wages.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303753904577452260437934858.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_LEADTop
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
September 22nd, 2012
8:08 am
Hillary Clinton now admits Benghazi was a terrorist attack.
Not a protest against a YouTube video.
Obozo shot first and aimed later. America can do better.
Vote American.
Michael H. Smith
September 22nd, 2012
8:24 am
the COURTS are the arbiter of rights?
Rights may well have limits, the unalienable ones are not subject to the authority of any part of any government as they are said to be endowed upon us by our creator and not your arbitrary COURTS which MUST derive their RIGHTS and POWERS from our hands. We change our laws as we so choose via our elected representatives. We have the right and power to change our very government as well when it is deemed necessary, which of course includes our COURTS.
Michael H. Smith
September 22nd, 2012
8:38 am
Not only were the attacks in Libya terrorist attacks they were preplanned with possible foreknowledge of their existence. obama and company clearly dropped the ball on this one and are lying to avoid the political fallout.
Consulate Attack Preplanned, Libya’s President Says
Libya’s president says he believes al-Qaida is behind a deadly attack in eastern Libya that killed U.S. Ambassador Chris Stevens and three other U.S. staffers.
In an exclusive interview with NPR in Benghazi, President Mohammed el-Megarif says foreigners infiltrated Libya over the past few months, planned the attack and used Libyans to carry it out…
Megarif says that over the past few months, foreigners took advantage of the security vacuum and flowed into the country from Mali and Algeria. I ask if this attack was over an anti-Muslim film that sparked violent protests across the Muslim world. He shakes his head.
“The idea that this criminal and cowardly act was a spontaneous protest that just spun out of control is completely unfounded and preposterous,” he says. “We firmly believe that this was a precalculated, preplanned attack that was carried out specifically to attack the U.S. Consulate.”
http://www.npr.org/2012/09/16/161228170/consulate-attack-preplanned-libya-s-president-says
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
September 22nd, 2012
8:40 am
Why did Obozo lie about Fast & Furious starting under Our President Bush’s administration?
It started October 2009.
Obozo: Liar.
Vote American.
Answers?
September 22nd, 2012
8:41 am
Like it or not, we’re part of the world community. We cannot survive on our own. If we elect a ticket that will alienate the rest of the world, then yes, we’ll be in serious trouble.
AU Liberal in ATL
September 22nd, 2012
8:43 am
You’re the Lil’ liar. Right wing propaganda does not qualify as information.
Uneducated, uninformed, vote against my best interest, Howdy Doody
September 22nd, 2012
8:46 am
Ima gone vote fer Mitch Romley. He is a fine Christain famly man and Paul Rine is won smart politishen. Plus he has buteaful blue eyes. O my goodness!
Docq
September 22nd, 2012
8:55 am
Send all manufacturing jobs to China, send all support jobs to India, police the world and prosper. Greed will be the downfall of this nation.
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
September 22nd, 2012
8:57 am
Feel free to point out the factual error in my post, AU.
Crickets.
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
September 22nd, 2012
8:58 am
“vote against my best interest”
——————————
No doubt voting for Obozo is in your best interest…he’s the one that wants to keep the checks going out to the “takers”.
Michael H. Smith
September 22nd, 2012
8:59 am
The weakness of the present “ticket” with its’ grand apology tour – and failed energy policy – did worse than alienate us from the world community of our allies. It strengthened the hands of our enemies for years to come.
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
September 22nd, 2012
9:05 am
Ordinary Libyans stormed the headquarters of an armed militia linked to the Benghazi attack. It’s good to see these citizens doing the job Obozo refuses to do.
Obozo lied. Our ambassador, two SEALS, and another American died.
Numbers-R-US
September 22nd, 2012
9:15 am
How’s that 35% tax rate impacting Mitt and his backers.
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
September 22nd, 2012
9:16 am
The same as it affects everyone. We all pay taxes according to the same set of tax rates.
Numbers-R-US
September 22nd, 2012
9:17 am
Bush lied. Three thousand died. See how that works, Lil B.
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
September 22nd, 2012
9:18 am
Obozo lied about the Benghazi attack on Univision, after the administration already knew that it was a pre-planned terror attack.
Obozo must think Hispanics are stupid.
Vote American.
Numbers-R-US
September 22nd, 2012
9:19 am
The same as it affects everyone. We all pay taxes according to the same set of tax rates.
Not according to Mitt’s hidden video. Those people getting social security and medicare and veteran’s benefits are just leeches living off the government according to Mitt.
Numbers-R-US
September 22nd, 2012
9:19 am
Bush lied about Iraq and our soldiers died needlessly.
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
September 22nd, 2012
9:21 am
Our President Bush was handed a ticking time bomb by the Clinton administration. As usually happens, a Republican had to clean up a Democrat mess (see “Vietnam war”).
Now Obozo is trying to undo that progress by apologizing worldwide and weakening America.
Fix the mistake of ‘08.
Vote American.
An Observer
September 22nd, 2012
9:24 am
It is in bigger trouble if Obama is re-elected.
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
September 22nd, 2012
9:26 am
An electorate so ignorant and greedy for handouts that it would elect Obozo is the real danger to America.
Don’t be a parasite.
Vote American.
peachtreecityfreeloader
September 22nd, 2012
9:52 am
one way tickets to Mogadishu after november election for anybody who no longer wants to live in America because they want no government.