Is America in trouble no matter who wins the presidency?
Last Friday, I spoke to a local chapter of the Optimist Club. This Friday, I’m going to make sure no one who reads my blog can possibly have any shred of optimism remaining.
Just kidding. Sort of.
In an election season in which the presidential campaigns take turns making mistakes, making one wonder if either candidate really wants to win this thing, Sean Trende at Real Clear Politics lays out a case that neither side should want to win.
It’s the third in a three-part series; the first two installments were an argument for why Barack Obama will be re-elected, and an argument for why Mitt Romney will unseat him. The third piece boils down to: Be careful what you wish for.
Trende cites four factors that, at this point in time, suggest the winner of this election will see his party (or, in Romney’s case, himself) get rocked in the 2014 midterms and 2016 presidential election.
1. The economy. After reviewing the way we have not sprung back from the most recent recession the way we have from previous downturns, Trende notes:
Now consider that the average post-war business cycle lasts about six years from trough to trough. We hit our last trough in mid-2009, which means we should be due for another recession in the next few years.
We could easily begin to contract before we have fully recovered from the last recession. There are already signs that slowdowns in Europe and China are spilling over to our shores. This is probably too late to affect Obama’s re-election chances, but if it turns into a full-blown recession, it would greatly impact 2014 (when 11 Democrats are facing re-election in states that went for George W. Bush).
2. Debt. Here, Trende writes:
The current CBO projection assumes that we will add $3 trillion in debt over the next decade. But the reality is actually much, much worse than that. This assumes that we go off the famous “fiscal cliff” in December and allow all of the Bush tax cuts to expire, allow the full force of the alternative minimum tax to kick in, allow all of the spending cuts agreed to earlier this Congress to kick in, and greatly slash money paid to Medicare providers. Needless to say, if people see their taxes raised, their doctors stop accepting them for care, and we go into a recession, none of this will be popular.
If we assume Congress won’t allow this to occur, then we are looking at the CBO’s “alternate scenario.” It involves an additional $11 trillion in debt over the next few decades.
Even this latter scenario, he notes, is dependent on CBO’s rosy economic growth projections coming true — even though the economy has consistently underperformed CBO forecasts in recent years.
3. Health care. Trende notes that Obamacare is set to get cranked up in earnest in 2014. He imagines two scenarios:
If Obamacare doesn’t work — if seniors really suffer as a result of the benefit cuts to Medicare; if more people get thrown off their employer-sponsored insurance than expected; if insurers get put out of business because people opt to pay the tax rather than get insurance — it will not be a pretty political situation for Democrats.
Even if it works well, there will be problems. Unlike Medicare and Social Security, Obamacare creates obvious winners and losers. We then get to issues of salience: If people who are tossed onto the exchanges are angrier than people who are no longer denied care for pre-existing conditions are happy, there is a political problem for Democrats. If seniors strongly perceive the cuts to Medicare Advantage, but quickly forget about the “donut hole” being closed, there is a political problem for Democrats. There are dozens of such examples. Maybe they cancel each other out, but I wouldn’t bet the proverbial farm on it.
As for Republicans, Trende only maps out a scenario in which a President Romney and Congress repeal the law but don’t replace it with other reforms. Personally, I don’t think that’s the most realistic GOP scenario. But either way, he is probably right that Democrats will claim any shortcomings would have been better under Obamacare and will swing that club against Republicans early and often.
4. Iran. This, Trende says, doesn’t require a lot of theorizing:
In the next few years, one of two things will happen. Either Iran will develop a nuclear weapon, or Israel and the United States will forcibly stop Iran from developing a nuclear weapon.
No American president wants to be the one who oversees the former. And the disruptions that could ensue from the latter would be massive, especially in combination with any of the other factors listed above. Add in the continued difficulties we face in the region in general (as we saw last week), and the problems there are similarly insurmountable.
***
What does all this mean? Is Trende right that either Democrats or Republicans could “win by losing”?
From a purely electoral-politics perspective, maybe. Of course, that would mean neither man is up to the task of creating better outcomes to these challenges. Which is a pretty depressing thought.
But is it a correct thought? Should we really believe America is doomed for the next four years no matter what happens in November?
Let’s hear your arguments why Obama or Romney would avoid disaster on any or all of these four issues. Think of it as a Poll Position without the poll. Just answer in the thread below.
– By Kyle Wingfield
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798 comments Add your comment
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
September 21st, 2012
9:10 pm
Fox News learns that over 100 people participated in the terrorist attack against our ambassador last week and confirms RPG’s and mortars were used.
Rachel Madcow on MSNBC is picking apart a single quote from Mitt Romney about him paying more in taxes than he should, and wasting over 9 minutes on it already with no sign of moving onto something actually substantial.
One is an actual news organization and one is a shill for the Democrat party.
Can anyone guess which one is which?
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
September 21st, 2012
9:13 pm
Linda, you’ll get no argument from me on the EPA and their heavy-handedness in regulating things that don’t need regulating.
I’m just pointing out the other side of the coin where you appear to believe that climate change isn’t happening at all, and saying that we don’t know enough yet.
cc
September 21st, 2012
9:18 pm
Lil’ Barry Bailout – Vote American
September 21st, 2012
9:03 pm
http://www.americanthinker.com/2012/09/iran_has_obama_in_a_headlock.html
getalife
September 21st, 2012
9:19 pm
Libyans are attacking the Islamist Headquarters.
Get Real
September 21st, 2012
9:20 pm
Obama has gone from “yes we can” to “no we can’t”…
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
September 21st, 2012
9:23 pm
“Libyans are attacking the Islamist Headquarters.”
Cite?
Bruno
September 21st, 2012
9:26 pm
Special for my honey bunny:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FvzNeh4Mq1o
cc
September 21st, 2012
9:26 pm
Tiberius – pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
September 21st, 2012
9:13 pm
The Little Ice Age just ended in 1850. The scientists haven’t been able to tie that era to man-made global warming. Even though it was not a true ice age, the cost in human life was enormous.
Bruno
September 21st, 2012
9:31 pm
For those of the Southern Persuasion in the crowd tonight:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZzWRHaIgmHs
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
September 21st, 2012
9:31 pm
The film is the pretext. Weakness is the cause.
Obozo: Weak.
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
September 21st, 2012
9:33 pm
Isn’t it about time for Obozo to bomb an aspirin factory in Libya or an empty campground in Afghanistan?
Don't Tread
September 21st, 2012
9:33 pm
I’ll add as reason 6 this country is in trouble – education, specifically, the lack thereof.
When one equates “product or service in exchange for money” with “taking from one to give to another”, i.e. something for something = something for nothing, we have a serious education problem. (it also explains how 0bama got elected in the first place.)
Liberal Pariah
September 21st, 2012
9:35 pm
Daily Kos is reporting that Libyans are storming the headquarters of the militia that killed Ambassador Stephens. Why aren’t they storming th house of the film maker? Maybe Obama, Hillary or Carney can explain it to me.
Bruno
September 21st, 2012
9:37 pm
For josef:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ns9jGWiF8d0
Bruno
September 21st, 2012
9:39 pm
Why aren’t they storming th house of the film maker? Maybe Obama, Hillary or Carney can explain it to me.
LP–Thank God there are still some people in this country who can think for themselves. Not everyone automatically buys into the official Lib version.
Liberal Pariah
September 21st, 2012
9:40 pm
hey getaclue, now that we have Romney’s tax records, can we see Obama’s student records?
Be an American, Be Transparent.
tiredofIT
September 21st, 2012
9:40 pm
If the way Romney runs his campaign is any indication of how he would run the government, then God help us if he is elected.
Linda
September 21st, 2012
9:41 pm
Liberal@9:35, Answer: free speech. It’s in the Constitution somewhere. Look it up. I think it’s around the 1st amendment. Obama has already hauled in the film maker, in the middle of the night.
Bruno
September 21st, 2012
9:43 pm
Some more Little Feat.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VDp3Grz28mE&feature=relmfu
Where are you, HD??
Liberal Pariah
September 21st, 2012
9:45 pm
Harry Reid on Romney deciding to release 2011 returns: “He’s hiding something. He’s hiding something! It is so evident he’s hiding something.” Scary that this mindset is actually governing our country. More proof Liberalism is a mental illness. I can’t wait for Jay’s blog on this.
cc
September 21st, 2012
9:45 pm
tiredofIT
September 21st, 2012
9:40 pm
My four year old Yorkie could do a better job than Obama. I already know her to be far more intelligent, and she HATES socialism/communism; check with her sister who tried to eat her food . . .
@@
September 21st, 2012
9:46 pm
Whoops!
http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/story/2012/09/21/libyans-storm-militia-in-backlash-of-attack-on-us/57821580/1
First reported early this afternoon.
Liberal Pariah
September 21st, 2012
9:48 pm
Linda, get the sarcasm girl
The Libyan people are smarter than Obama because at least they know who is responsible for the death of Ambassador Stephens. Does that beg the question, Is a Libyan smarter than a Kenyan? Just wonderin….
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
September 21st, 2012
9:49 pm
Reid’s a lying scumbag.
President Romney gave 44% of his income to charity or income taxes last year.
Democrats should be embarrassed for focusing on that while ignoring Scumbag Obozo’s failed foreign policy and his lies regarding the Libya attack
Hillbilly D
September 21st, 2012
9:49 pm
A different take on an old Porter Waggoner song.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bkKOnS8J5GM&feature=related
Bruno
September 21st, 2012
9:50 pm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xrCMlSWlDX8&feature=related
I been warped by the rain, driven by the snow
I’m drunk and dirty don’t ya know, and I’m still, willin’
Out on the road late at night, Seen my pretty Alice in every head light
Alice, Dallas Alice
I’ve been from Tuscon to Tucumcari
Tehachapi to Tonapah
Driven every kind of rig that’s ever been made
Driven the back roads so I wouldn’t get weighed
And if you give me: weed, whites, and wine
And you show me a sign
I’ll be willin’, to be movin’
Bruno
September 21st, 2012
9:52 pm
I can’t wait for Jay’s blog on this.
Get ready to take a shower afterward…….or at least put some tall boots on first.
Liberal Pariah
September 21st, 2012
9:54 pm
yeah Bruno, Romney kicked their butt so bad on this one that they will not mention it or claim that he should be giving that money to the government instead of to charity.
Bruno
September 21st, 2012
9:56 pm
HD kickin it @ 9:49!!
Maybe one day we’ll get josef and JamVet over here and get the blog band together again.
Bruno
September 21st, 2012
10:03 pm
Back at ya, HD:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PZTS8xovWRE
GaNative
September 21st, 2012
10:03 pm
It doesn’t matter who wins the election, the country is still going to be in trouble. As long as we continue to send billions to foreign countries each year to buy friendships, then yes, things will stay as they are. Neither candidate has addressed sending Guest Workers back to their homeland. That would free up a lot of jobs for American Citizens. Send all the Visa Holders and HB1 Visa Holders back to their countries. If they are so much smarter than a American worker, why is their country lagging behind us? Nothing sickens me more than to see Indians from overseas taking over all the IT Jobs and a lot of other industries here. Yet I have never seen a Indian pick up a rifle to defend America on any of our battle grounds.
Bruno
September 21st, 2012
10:07 pm
One more from Bill Jolliff, Jacob Henry and Band:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W6kgSSnUgaI
cc
September 21st, 2012
10:08 pm
Liberal Pariah
September 21st, 2012
9:48 pm
“The Libyan people are smarter than Obama because at least they know who is responsible for the death of Ambassador Stephens”
I think that Obama knew from the beginning who was responsible. His mistake was thinking that the Libyans were smarter than most Americans. As evidenced on this blog, the libs bought what Obama/Clinton were selling initially. When they found that only the libs and the politically ignorant were the only people buying their story, they had to tell the truth, and truth is a rare commodity with this regime.
Hillbilly D
September 21st, 2012
10:09 pm
“But this is not a case of protests directed at the United States writ large or at U.S. policy, but it is in response to video that is offensive to Muslims,” said Carney.
“The unrest we’ve seen is in reaction to a film in which the United States government had no involvement,”he added.
Jay Carney, September 14
“It is, I think, self-evident that what happened in Benghazi was a terrorist attack. Our embassy was attacked violently and the result was four deaths of American officials – that’s self-evident,”
Jay Carney, September 20
I don’t understand the reasoning or the delay in saying what everybody already knew, very early on. Libyan President Mohamed Magariaf was way ahead of the White House.
“It was planned, definitely, it was planned by foreigners, by people who entered the country a few months ago, and they were planning this criminal act since their arrival,”
September 16.
Bruno
September 21st, 2012
10:12 pm
These guys are tight:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S8bLjIMX3bE
Linda
September 21st, 2012
10:13 pm
cc@9:45, The only dog worth anything is “it” who retrieves the newspaper in the mornings, rain or shine, global warming or not. Our big dog can’t actually read the newspaper, but, then again, he attends his morning briefings when he knows it’s in his & his household’s best interests to do so. Free enterprise is taking responsibility for one’s job & respecting the pecking order, giving in to the little Tom cat & refraining from smelling the female cat when she is pre-”occupied” with Wall Street or birds with entitlement mentality. It’s economic bliss.
Hillbilly D
September 21st, 2012
10:14 pm
Bruno @ 10:12
You ought to check them out live sometime, if you haven’t already.
Bruno
September 21st, 2012
10:21 pm
This one goes out to Liberal Pariah and cc:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KMup73A0Jo4
Bruno
September 21st, 2012
10:24 pm
You ought to check them out live sometime, if you haven’t already.
I’ll watch for them. Wish I could have taken you to a Dead show in their prime. There’s only a handful of folks who can make it up as they go along……..
Linda
September 21st, 2012
10:28 pm
Hypothetically, if there was proof that Obama himself murdered our representatives in Libya, the liberals would still defend him & vote for him, assuming they would continue to get their “free” stuff, without realizing that the US is broke, the “free” stuff is over & Obama’s stash is depleted.
What a country! What an election!
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
September 21st, 2012
10:39 pm
If only Harry Reid were as concerned about who killed our ambassador to Libya as he is trying to find out how much taxes Mitt Romney paid, the clown in the White House (pick one) wouldn’t have looked so damned dumb this week.
Oh, and for you Fox News Channel haters, if they hadn’t done THEIR work as a NEWS organization, this administration would still be trying to cover it up.
Bruno
September 21st, 2012
10:47 pm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rAUAwKTNuz0
If my words did glow with the gold of sunshine
And my tunes were played on the harp unstrung,
Would you hear my voice come thru the music,
Would you hold it near as it were your own?
Bruno
September 21st, 2012
10:50 pm
My favorite version of “Russian Lullaby”:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xp7LXL3qtFA
getalife
September 21st, 2012
11:00 pm
Liberal Pariah,
No but romney should as many tax returns as our President just to be fair and balanced.
Bruno
September 21st, 2012
11:01 pm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VzV9QExGFQs
getalife
September 21st, 2012
11:02 pm
There are moderate Muslims in Libya and they are all armed to the teeth.
That is why I wait for the FBI report instead of falling for corporate media speculation.
Gravy Train
September 21st, 2012
11:04 pm
Tibi just loves to read himself blather. In case you missed it, and judging by the fact the usual suspects are all still here, one of your fellow ditto-heads posted this little jewel on another article on this site about Willard’s cooked return (judging by the way some of you are already manipulating the numbers, you haven’t taken the time to actually read the cooked return, I know it’s cooked because it’s missing several lines, but it’s good enough to fool ditto-heads) anyway back to my original point, here’s your fellow ditto-head (although he may not be as old):
18) We were told that George W. Bush was a cowboy who was making the world hate us. Yet, as Chuck Norris notes,
The Washington Times reports that, according to a poll by even two left-leaning groups, “A majority of Americans say the United States is less respected in the world than two years ago and believe President Obama and other Democrats fall short of Republicans on the issue of national security.”
In February 2012, Gallup reported that “Americans continue to express much greater dissatisfaction than satisfaction with the United States’ position in the world, and their views have improved little since hitting a low point in 2008.”
That’s right! Your pals are so desperate to spin this thing, they’re willing to quote Chuck Norris and his spin as gospel truth. You guys should be happy, you’ve made it to ripe old ages and you’re collecting the very checks you bitch about. I wish I could say there’s a treatment for your delusions and xenophobia, but I don’t think your frail minds could handle the cure. Take heart that the future of your party is safe with folks like the one I quoted above. Good night, you senile old farts.
And Tibi – you shouldn’t be so ashamed of your cult. If you don’t want to talk about the cult, why in blazes would you nominate a cult member? You guys still haven’t told me where I can get my hands on some of those magic underwear. I’m serious. The fish in the ‘Hooch are few and far between. Perhaps the magic underwear will help?
Bruno
September 21st, 2012
11:04 pm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q7QE5htyb7E
getalife
September 21st, 2012
11:04 pm
Linda,
We are not broke and they still loan us money.
Countries that are broke can’t get any loans.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
September 21st, 2012
11:09 pm
You can repeat it as many times as your demented little mind wants you to, Gravy Train, but I am an Agnostic, not even close to a Mormon.
I just can’t stand mentally-deficient religious bigots spewing their unintelligent hate.
You know, like YOU.