Is America in trouble no matter who wins the presidency?
Last Friday, I spoke to a local chapter of the Optimist Club. This Friday, I’m going to make sure no one who reads my blog can possibly have any shred of optimism remaining.
Just kidding. Sort of.
In an election season in which the presidential campaigns take turns making mistakes, making one wonder if either candidate really wants to win this thing, Sean Trende at Real Clear Politics lays out a case that neither side should want to win.
It’s the third in a three-part series; the first two installments were an argument for why Barack Obama will be re-elected, and an argument for why Mitt Romney will unseat him. The third piece boils down to: Be careful what you wish for.
Trende cites four factors that, at this point in time, suggest the winner of this election will see his party (or, in Romney’s case, himself) get rocked in the 2014 midterms and 2016 presidential election.
1. The economy. After reviewing the way we have not sprung back from the most recent recession the way we have from previous downturns, Trende notes:
Now consider that the average post-war business cycle lasts about six years from trough to trough. We hit our last trough in mid-2009, which means we should be due for another recession in the next few years.
We could easily begin to contract before we have fully recovered from the last recession. There are already signs that slowdowns in Europe and China are spilling over to our shores. This is probably too late to affect Obama’s re-election chances, but if it turns into a full-blown recession, it would greatly impact 2014 (when 11 Democrats are facing re-election in states that went for George W. Bush).
2. Debt. Here, Trende writes:
The current CBO projection assumes that we will add $3 trillion in debt over the next decade. But the reality is actually much, much worse than that. This assumes that we go off the famous “fiscal cliff” in December and allow all of the Bush tax cuts to expire, allow the full force of the alternative minimum tax to kick in, allow all of the spending cuts agreed to earlier this Congress to kick in, and greatly slash money paid to Medicare providers. Needless to say, if people see their taxes raised, their doctors stop accepting them for care, and we go into a recession, none of this will be popular.
If we assume Congress won’t allow this to occur, then we are looking at the CBO’s “alternate scenario.” It involves an additional $11 trillion in debt over the next few decades.
Even this latter scenario, he notes, is dependent on CBO’s rosy economic growth projections coming true — even though the economy has consistently underperformed CBO forecasts in recent years.
3. Health care. Trende notes that Obamacare is set to get cranked up in earnest in 2014. He imagines two scenarios:
If Obamacare doesn’t work — if seniors really suffer as a result of the benefit cuts to Medicare; if more people get thrown off their employer-sponsored insurance than expected; if insurers get put out of business because people opt to pay the tax rather than get insurance — it will not be a pretty political situation for Democrats.
Even if it works well, there will be problems. Unlike Medicare and Social Security, Obamacare creates obvious winners and losers. We then get to issues of salience: If people who are tossed onto the exchanges are angrier than people who are no longer denied care for pre-existing conditions are happy, there is a political problem for Democrats. If seniors strongly perceive the cuts to Medicare Advantage, but quickly forget about the “donut hole” being closed, there is a political problem for Democrats. There are dozens of such examples. Maybe they cancel each other out, but I wouldn’t bet the proverbial farm on it.
As for Republicans, Trende only maps out a scenario in which a President Romney and Congress repeal the law but don’t replace it with other reforms. Personally, I don’t think that’s the most realistic GOP scenario. But either way, he is probably right that Democrats will claim any shortcomings would have been better under Obamacare and will swing that club against Republicans early and often.
4. Iran. This, Trende says, doesn’t require a lot of theorizing:
In the next few years, one of two things will happen. Either Iran will develop a nuclear weapon, or Israel and the United States will forcibly stop Iran from developing a nuclear weapon.
No American president wants to be the one who oversees the former. And the disruptions that could ensue from the latter would be massive, especially in combination with any of the other factors listed above. Add in the continued difficulties we face in the region in general (as we saw last week), and the problems there are similarly insurmountable.
***
What does all this mean? Is Trende right that either Democrats or Republicans could “win by losing”?
From a purely electoral-politics perspective, maybe. Of course, that would mean neither man is up to the task of creating better outcomes to these challenges. Which is a pretty depressing thought.
But is it a correct thought? Should we really believe America is doomed for the next four years no matter what happens in November?
Let’s hear your arguments why Obama or Romney would avoid disaster on any or all of these four issues. Think of it as a Poll Position without the poll. Just answer in the thread below.
– By Kyle Wingfield
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798 comments Add your comment
Linda
September 21st, 2012
7:14 pm
HDB@6:29, My name is Linda, not inda.
If the USA had operated within the framework of the Constitution, we would have NO DEBT. We would have a govt. surplus.
The fed. govt. does not insure that citizens play by the same rules. It’s primary job, specifically that of congress, is to actually create the rules. It’s the court system whose duty it is to insure compliance.
It’s 2012. The US Constitution has not been amended for decades.
The states in which gay marriage is recognized are those in which legislatures authorized it. There is not a single state in which gay marriage is recognized where it’s been voted on by voters. Even California voted against it. If you think voters will vote for a Constitutional amendment to authorize gay marriage, you are whistling “Dixie,” which would be uncharacteristic for you.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
September 21st, 2012
7:16 pm
“The complaints about business regulations are just hot air or, to put it more courteously, a matter of personal opinion. Except for the most extreme groups, rational people accept the need for some business regulations. Then it becomes a question of what anybody considers appropriate and what an inappropriate regulation. ”
So much tripe in so few words.
There is not a single solitary person on this blog calling for no regulations. None. I’ll bet you’d be hard pressed to find 1/10th of one percent of Americans who call for that. Basing your response on that meme is incredibly weak.
As far as what is appropriate, Thank you, Captain Obvious!
But if you believe that nearly 1/2 a trillion dollars in costs to individuals and businesses in just the past 4 years is appropriate, then you, sir, are the one that is extremely irrational.
Hillbilly D
September 21st, 2012
7:18 pm
The only time this country ever had zero debt was when Andy Jackson paid off the debt in 1835.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
September 21st, 2012
7:18 pm
“we’re doing a great job killing Iran’s nukes without one boot hitting their soil. ”
Really? Moving forward with the nuclear weapons program is now considered to be “killing” a nuclear weapons program?
Not only a bigot, but an incredibly stupid bigot.
Bruno
September 21st, 2012
7:19 pm
Even California voted against it.
Some Randy California for Linda:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeQ9kw818NQ
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
September 21st, 2012
7:21 pm
“That is wrong on several levels, the most fundamental one being that it implies that incomes are somehow preordained, and redistribution by the action of the government would mean that it would be decreed that some incomes must decrease and some increase. Since the government does not directly control incomes, that is false.”
What a bunch of bull!
And nice deflection as well.
While government may not control incomes, they certainly DO control how much you keep.
Anything else is nonsense.
Gravy Train
September 21st, 2012
7:22 pm
Look at Bruno lie…one tax return doesn’t equal 20 years. Again, we’re stuck with having to take Willard’s word for it…14.1% is nowhere near what you’re claiming. I’ll cut you some slack, it’s well known that ditto-heads have trouble with facts and figures…
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/romney-release-2011-tax-return-paid-irs-14-181125301–election.html
That Black guy
September 21st, 2012
7:23 pm
Gravy Train
September 21st, 2012
6:19 pm
So they have a token black guy, like the GOP has their token minorities? I should have known…
________________________________________________________________________
Kinda like a House ni**er, right?
That Black guy
September 21st, 2012
7:27 pm
Gravy Train
You do know religous affilation has no bearing on political ability, right?
Prophet
September 21st, 2012
7:28 pm
read the handwriting on the wall….
the only hope… only Jesus can fix everything that’s broken and He soon will
peace2U!
MarkV
September 21st, 2012
7:28 pm
Bruno @ 7:07 pm: “Since it was revealed today that Romney paid an average annual effective tax rate of 20.2% the past 20 years, the same that Obama paid this year, what is the Lib narrative going to be now??”
I am not in the predictions business.
“And exactly what have Obama and the Dems done to reverse the income disparity in our country since assuming power?? Other than make everyone poorer??”
You mean everyone, like those high income earners, whose profits and incomes keep increasing?
Or you do mean those unemployed as a result of the recession, who have been getting unemployment benefits in spite of the opposition of the conservatives?
cc
September 21st, 2012
7:30 pm
That Black guy
September 21st, 2012
7:23 pm
“Kinda like a House ni**er, right?”
I thought that term was reserved for use against any black person who strayed off the democrat plantation?
Bruno
September 21st, 2012
7:30 pm
Look at Bruno lie…one tax return doesn’t equal 20 years. Again, we’re stuck with having to take Willard’s word for it…14.1% is nowhere near what you’re claiming. I’ll cut you some slack, it’s well known that ditto-heads have trouble with facts and figures…
Hey Dipsh*t–Did you even read the link?? If you will scroll down to paragraphs 7 and 8, you will read as follows:
“It also indicated that the Romneys’ tax preparer, PricewaterhouseCoopers, would provide a letter summarizing the tax rates that the Romneys paid from 1990 to 2009.
The Romneys paid an average annual effective federal tax rate of 20.2 percent, with the lowest rate coming in at 13.66 percent. Over that same stretch of time, they gave an average of 13.45 percent of their adjusted gross income to charity.”
That Black guy
September 21st, 2012
7:34 pm
cc
September 21st, 2012
7:30 pm
That Black guy
September 21st, 2012
7:23 pm
“Kinda like a House ni**er, right?”
I thought that term was reserved for use against any black person who strayed off the democrat plantation?
_______________________
Nah, like “token, sell out, not really Black”, it gets painted on Blacks who don’t fit into the preconceived image of a Black person.
Bruno
September 21st, 2012
7:34 pm
Hey TBG!!! For you, single man:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yhHqzA8t5iY
I’m pretty sure that R Kelly is sampling from “A Lovely Day” by Bill Withers here.
That Black Guy
September 21st, 2012
7:35 pm
Bruno, what’s up.
How was Jersey?
MarkV
September 21st, 2012
7:36 pm
Should not people like Tiberius first learn to read, before they write BS that calls other people’s posts bull?
That Black Guy
September 21st, 2012
7:37 pm
Bruno
September 21st, 2012
7:34 pm
Hey TBG!!! For you, single man:
__________________________
Cool, I’ll check it out when I leave work.
Which is NOW!
Later.
Oh and Gravey Train, you can always CHOSE to NOT be a bigot.
Just sayin’…
Hillbilly D
September 21st, 2012
7:39 pm
For Bruno and anybody else that wants to listen. Nice solo version.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eoSn2Y-b6wI&feature=related
cc
September 21st, 2012
7:40 pm
That Black guy
September 21st, 2012
7:34 pm
Got it! I always thought that the use of ‘token’ as an indicator of a prejudiced mind attempting to conceal that trait.
Linda
September 21st, 2012
7:40 pm
I think the majority of the American people, those who actually fill out tax returns, are much more interested in theirs, than they are Romney’s.
Bruno
September 21st, 2012
7:40 pm
How was Jersey?
We had a great time. My sis got us a comped suite at the Borgata, so we stayed in luxury. I played in a big poker tourney and made it into the money, so felt good about that. Other than that, we hung out on the boardwalk and the beach. The highlight of the trip was getting a real cheesesteak and some real pizza at Two Brothers in Pomona.
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
September 21st, 2012
7:41 pm
Yes, we are in trouble no matter who wins. America is in decline, we have outsourced our space program and will have to severely cut programs to ever make any dent in the debt. Neither side is going to want to make the voters unhappy, so I expect neither one to take the actions necessary to rescue the sinking ship. Our ship has been taking on water for 50 years, but Obama blew out the below water port holes in an effort to avoid any one suffering any pain on his watch.
Obama has been obviously deceiving the American people or is totally inept, as he is the only one in his administration that has not yet fessed up about the lie, they fomented for a week, that the Libyan Consulate was destroyed because of a video. Most Americans knew it to be a lie by the weekend, but he obviously pushed Ambassador Rice to go on 5 Sunday shows and continue to proclaim, what everyone knew to be a coverup. First Ambassador killed since 1979, happened on his watch.
Osama dead, Libyan Ambassador dead, GM begging the Gov to sell the stock, at a loss, so they can get back building cars people want to buy, rather than those Barry wants built.
Going to take President Romney years to make any progress in returning this country to prosperity and if Pres Obama is reinstalled, we can expect more of the same, so yes we are in trouble.
getalife
September 21st, 2012
7:43 pm
It is very obvious we need to close the cayman island and offshore loopholes.
The wealthy should contribute more than the middle class and poor to pay off the debt.
They can afford it and they will be fine.
Country first not wealthy first.
getalife
September 21st, 2012
7:46 pm
If our President is so bad, why do you have to lie?
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
September 21st, 2012
7:47 pm
they gave an average of 13.45 percent of their adjusted gross income to charity.”
Yeah, but, Joe Biden gave like $345, so take that.
Dems don’t believe in Charity, that is what government is for, take from some they don’t particularly like and give to those they do. Too much “flexibility” when you allow the individual to decide, to whom to give their money. They might give it to the Boy Scouts, or heaven forbid, Mormon or Catholic Charities.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
September 21st, 2012
7:47 pm
Shouldn’t people like MarkV be required to THINK before being allowed to post here?
PlatinumBlack
September 21st, 2012
7:50 pm
The highlight of the trip was getting a real cheesesteak and some real pizza at Two Brothers in Pomona.
…which he took back to the hotel and ate off of my abs.
Lynnie Gal
September 21st, 2012
7:52 pm
It’s gonna be a hard slog through this mess that the Bush/Cheney administration did to this country, and with GOP obstruction it has been almost impossible to fix. It’s obvious to more and more people that the GOP wants America to fail if a Democratic president is in office. So, it could get better if Obama wins and brings more Democrats down ticket with him. It needs to be painful enough so that Republicans will stop playing this obstruction game that is ruining the country. GOP must lose bad–then maybe theres a way to start addressing these serious problems.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
September 21st, 2012
7:53 pm
“…which he took back to the hotel and ate off of my abs.”
Coulda done without THAT visual . . .
After all, a real Philly cheesesteak is sensual enough without the abs thing.
PlatinumBlack
September 21st, 2012
7:53 pm
Am hungry, Bruno. I am going to dinner:
http://youtu.be/Nh2xYpwe4ws
Gravy Train
September 21st, 2012
7:54 pm
That Black Guy…you’re wrong on your definition. Calling someone a token minority means that the GOP is marching out a minority to say: See, we have a black guy, too. In this year’s convention, it was a black woman, with an extremely boring and contrived speech, Condi Rice. Are you even really black? I thought an almost black person was called an “Oreo.” And blacks that sell out other blacks to whites are called “Uncle Toms” Good job trying to be “The Token Black Guy” on today’s blog, but it appears I know more about black people than you do. Of course, don’t take my word for it. Look it up for yourself, if you’re not too used to having information spoon fed to you. (a common ditto-head malignity)
Bruno
September 21st, 2012
7:55 pm
After all, a real Philly cheesesteak is sensual enough without the abs thing.
The fact that PB is 5′ 8″ and 128 lbs does help the situation……
Bruno
September 21st, 2012
7:59 pm
Shouldn’t people like MarkV be required to THINK before being allowed to post here?
Tib–You have to admit that HDB’s 5:07 was in a class all by itself.
http://blogs.ajc.com/kyle-wingfield/2012/09/21/is-america-in-trouble-no-matter-who-wins-the-presidency/?cp=5#comment-153875
Special mention to Gravy Train as well, who can’t read past paragraph #1 in his own links. Some real genius Libs here……
Bruno
September 21st, 2012
8:01 pm
For Bruno and anybody else that wants to listen. Nice solo version.
HD–If we’re going with Steve Winwood, I have to put this one up for you my special girl:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AIyX8jrd8jM
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
September 21st, 2012
8:01 pm
Nice to see Gravy Train’s bigotry knows no bounds.
Not that it surprised me . . .
Bruno
September 21st, 2012
8:03 pm
Back in a while. There’s a new buffet in town which is going to be the ruin of us. Only $10 with all the sushi you can eat. Toss in about 10 other serving lines plus dessert, and we’re having trouble buttoning our jeans lately.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
September 21st, 2012
8:03 pm
It has been running a bit thick on here today, Bruno, that’s for sure.
MarkV
September 21st, 2012
8:05 pm
“Shouldn’t people like MarkV be required to THINK before being allowed to post here?”
That would deprive us of Tiberius’ posts here, and we need the laughter their silliness brings us.
Linda
September 21st, 2012
8:06 pm
Every president has promised energy independency since Carter. I’ve said for a couple of years that this is the only way we will exit the recession & help pay down the debt. I really believe that Romney will fulfill this promise & take us back to the path of prosperity, only if he has bi-partisan support.
Climate change is the greatest hoax ever brought on in the history of the world.
Greenhouse gases are not pollutants of the air. They ARE air.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
September 21st, 2012
8:07 pm
MarkV, picking apart someone’s grammar or writing style does not an opinion make.
Nor does it require a great deal of thought.
Which is why your responses meet both of those requirements.
PlatinumBlack
September 21st, 2012
8:07 pm
Toss in about 10 other serving lines plus dessert, and we’re having trouble buttoning our jeans lately.
By “we,” he means himself. ;-D
Love this one:
http://youtu.be/t2mU6USTBRE
Bruno
September 21st, 2012
8:09 pm
HD–Keep the party going, man. We’ll be back in about in an hour and about 10 lbs heavier.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
September 21st, 2012
8:18 pm
Linda, too much of anything, even water, can harm or kill you.
My issue is that we don’t know if we are the cause, if this is a natural cycle, or what.
And the problem is that there are too many Chicken Littles out there that are too quick to blame man and not enough valid data with which to make their pronouncements. Add to that when you get situations which fly in the face of their data, they simply make up an excuse like, “Too much snow? Global warming caused that”, or , “Temperatures dropped this year. Yeah, but it’s still warmer than it was”, I get even less convinced they don’t know what they’re talking about.
And all these alarmists are all on the public dole, getting their handouts and giving their masters the conclusions they paid for.
It might be happening, but I don’t see any valid data that says we caused it, or can control it if we didn’t.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
September 21st, 2012
8:20 pm
“and we’re having trouble buttoning our jeans lately.
By “we,” he means himself. ;-D”
SOMEbody is not buttoning their jeans, because Bruno ate cheesesteaks off your abs.
Just sayin’!
Del
September 21st, 2012
8:39 pm
Obama’s foreign policy is in shambles just like his economic policy along with his social policies. Four more years of this failure would be four more years of tears for the American people with this incompetent in the White House.
Hillbilly D
September 21st, 2012
8:41 pm
And all these alarmists are all on the public dole, getting their handouts and giving their masters the conclusions they paid for.
A friend of mine’s dad was once hired to do a study. His first question of the people who commissioned the study was, “What do you want it to say?”.
getalife
September 21st, 2012
8:42 pm
“Boehner: GOP Won’t Raise Taxes On Wealthy, Even If Obama Reelected” Aol
That is the only thing they fight for.
Whig party.
Linda
September 21st, 2012
8:45 pm
Tiberius@8:18, If a problem has not been proven to exist & if “we don’t know if we are the cause,” why is the EPA regulating it, despite the fact that Congress, specifically the more level-headed Senate, voted to ban the regulation?
Even if the problem exists (global warming) & even if it’s proven that man is causing it, who in their right mind thinks that politicians in DC can solve the problem by burying it underground & swapping the ability to cause more of it for money? Pay to play? Pay to pollute? Pay for politics? Pay to cap? Pay to trade?
In the meantime, Obama’s EPA is costing the US trillions of dollars while he fiddles around with windmills that are nothing more than monster Cuisinarts & Kitchenaids.
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
September 21st, 2012
9:03 pm
Our ambassador is dead and Islamofascism is alive.
Show ‘em your Nobel, Obozo.