Is America in trouble no matter who wins the presidency?
Last Friday, I spoke to a local chapter of the Optimist Club. This Friday, I’m going to make sure no one who reads my blog can possibly have any shred of optimism remaining.
Just kidding. Sort of.
In an election season in which the presidential campaigns take turns making mistakes, making one wonder if either candidate really wants to win this thing, Sean Trende at Real Clear Politics lays out a case that neither side should want to win.
It’s the third in a three-part series; the first two installments were an argument for why Barack Obama will be re-elected, and an argument for why Mitt Romney will unseat him. The third piece boils down to: Be careful what you wish for.
Trende cites four factors that, at this point in time, suggest the winner of this election will see his party (or, in Romney’s case, himself) get rocked in the 2014 midterms and 2016 presidential election.
1. The economy. After reviewing the way we have not sprung back from the most recent recession the way we have from previous downturns, Trende notes:
Now consider that the average post-war business cycle lasts about six years from trough to trough. We hit our last trough in mid-2009, which means we should be due for another recession in the next few years.
We could easily begin to contract before we have fully recovered from the last recession. There are already signs that slowdowns in Europe and China are spilling over to our shores. This is probably too late to affect Obama’s re-election chances, but if it turns into a full-blown recession, it would greatly impact 2014 (when 11 Democrats are facing re-election in states that went for George W. Bush).
2. Debt. Here, Trende writes:
The current CBO projection assumes that we will add $3 trillion in debt over the next decade. But the reality is actually much, much worse than that. This assumes that we go off the famous “fiscal cliff” in December and allow all of the Bush tax cuts to expire, allow the full force of the alternative minimum tax to kick in, allow all of the spending cuts agreed to earlier this Congress to kick in, and greatly slash money paid to Medicare providers. Needless to say, if people see their taxes raised, their doctors stop accepting them for care, and we go into a recession, none of this will be popular.
If we assume Congress won’t allow this to occur, then we are looking at the CBO’s “alternate scenario.” It involves an additional $11 trillion in debt over the next few decades.
Even this latter scenario, he notes, is dependent on CBO’s rosy economic growth projections coming true — even though the economy has consistently underperformed CBO forecasts in recent years.
3. Health care. Trende notes that Obamacare is set to get cranked up in earnest in 2014. He imagines two scenarios:
If Obamacare doesn’t work — if seniors really suffer as a result of the benefit cuts to Medicare; if more people get thrown off their employer-sponsored insurance than expected; if insurers get put out of business because people opt to pay the tax rather than get insurance — it will not be a pretty political situation for Democrats.
Even if it works well, there will be problems. Unlike Medicare and Social Security, Obamacare creates obvious winners and losers. We then get to issues of salience: If people who are tossed onto the exchanges are angrier than people who are no longer denied care for pre-existing conditions are happy, there is a political problem for Democrats. If seniors strongly perceive the cuts to Medicare Advantage, but quickly forget about the “donut hole” being closed, there is a political problem for Democrats. There are dozens of such examples. Maybe they cancel each other out, but I wouldn’t bet the proverbial farm on it.
As for Republicans, Trende only maps out a scenario in which a President Romney and Congress repeal the law but don’t replace it with other reforms. Personally, I don’t think that’s the most realistic GOP scenario. But either way, he is probably right that Democrats will claim any shortcomings would have been better under Obamacare and will swing that club against Republicans early and often.
4. Iran. This, Trende says, doesn’t require a lot of theorizing:
In the next few years, one of two things will happen. Either Iran will develop a nuclear weapon, or Israel and the United States will forcibly stop Iran from developing a nuclear weapon.
No American president wants to be the one who oversees the former. And the disruptions that could ensue from the latter would be massive, especially in combination with any of the other factors listed above. Add in the continued difficulties we face in the region in general (as we saw last week), and the problems there are similarly insurmountable.
***
What does all this mean? Is Trende right that either Democrats or Republicans could “win by losing”?
From a purely electoral-politics perspective, maybe. Of course, that would mean neither man is up to the task of creating better outcomes to these challenges. Which is a pretty depressing thought.
But is it a correct thought? Should we really believe America is doomed for the next four years no matter what happens in November?
Let’s hear your arguments why Obama or Romney would avoid disaster on any or all of these four issues. Think of it as a Poll Position without the poll. Just answer in the thread below.
– By Kyle Wingfield
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798 comments Add your comment
Don't Tread
September 21st, 2012
3:36 pm
Lessee…Corporations are evil, Replublicans are evil. (There was even a “it’s Nixon’s fault” thrown in there for good measure.) Got it. I suppose religion should be outlawed too.
One perspective....
September 21st, 2012
3:37 pm
I think that America is in trouble… no matter who wins. A $16 Trillion debt means we might already have “passed the rubicon” or “jumped the shark”. Any real effort to get something done about the debt will be undone by the next election.
To get this under control, everyone will have to take some pain. Currently, the bottom 47% and the top 15% are insulated from the pain by politicians. The upper/middle 38% cannot do it all, and those folks are already in decline. The family that brings home $75k has very little more disposable income as the family making $45K, and the incentive to excel is growing smaller yearly.
For example, and this is serious, I have wondered if I shouldn’t take a job 10 minutes from my house, earning $30k less. I have done the math. With the earned income tax credit ($3000), food stamps, no taxes(I paid $12k last year in Federal taxes alone) and getting rid of 1 car (and all the driving that goes with it, $10,000 in car/maint and $18,000 in commute time opportunity cost ), I would have just about the same spending power I do now, but would have almost 15 hours a week more to myself and my family. The only reason I don’t do that now is that I have a skill set that allows me to get a job easily in my chosen field… but the jobs are almost 50 miles from my home. Before the recession, my job was much closer and the idea of throwing in the towel was the furthest thing from my mind. But now, the financials are screaming, “take the government money and work half as hard”.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
September 21st, 2012
3:38 pm
So now you’re moving the goal posts, HDB. I didn’t say free-fall. YOU did. I said anemic is worse than slow. If you can’t defend the record, don’t change the terminology.
“Actually, if Bush had of listened to the Richard Clarke memo warning us about al Quaeda”
And you know he didn’t – how? Are you complete discounting the national security setup which didn’t allow information to be shared across various agencies which might have contributed to the attacks? That maybe government has truly gotten so large it cannot effectively deal with ANYTHING?
How does an administration allow their ambassador to travel on the anniversary of 9/11 with three stinkin’ guards, HDB?
Mr. Dithers
September 21st, 2012
3:39 pm
We thought the stimulus was in response to the economic collapse, but now we learn that it was actually the cause, and even before it happened. Those job creators really are something, so prescient that they just tanked the economy before President Obama was even elected. Gotta hand it to them. Nice of them to do his work for him.
getalife
September 21st, 2012
3:40 pm
I blogged during the w disaster.
I know our country can’t take another gop disaster.
Think country first and don’t let it happen again.
Never again.
Thanks.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
September 21st, 2012
3:43 pm
There is a certain truth to what Linda says about confidence in the marketplace helping to drive economic activity, but I don’t believe that it was a big factor in this recession starting. Those things were in place for over 30 years and counting.
But as to the slower than average “recovery”? I think lack of consumer and business confidence in anything this President can do is certainly slowing that recovery down.
Don't Tread
September 21st, 2012
3:44 pm
“the supremes then gave us legal fraud, graft, corruption, bribery and coverup with the Citizen’s United case”
Citizens United was a decision restoring free speech rights that were [illegally] taken away by liberals who wanted to silence people who didn’t agree with them. The SC ruled correctly.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
September 21st, 2012
3:45 pm
“I blogged during the w disaster.”
While that may make you a member of the commentariat, it doesn’t bestow upon you any knowledge.
Don Abernethy
September 21st, 2012
3:47 pm
Yes. Big trouble.
Bruno
September 21st, 2012
3:47 pm
So, after all of the speculation and posturing by the Dems regarding Romney’s taxes, it turns out that he has been paying an average annual effective rate of 20.2% in the past 20 years, just about the same that the Obamas paid this year.
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/romney-release-2011-tax-return-paid-irs-14-181125301–election.html
I won’t hold my breath waiting for an apology by Harry Reid.
Joe America
September 21st, 2012
3:48 pm
The power of stupidity is a politicians most destructive force, of coarse this can go both ways so there is hope.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
September 21st, 2012
3:48 pm
Don’t Tread, isn’t it amazing that the same people who require that unions be allowed to contribute to political campaigns try their darndest to keep corporations from doing the same?
If unions are people, my friends, then so are corporations.
At least a corporation’s money is given willingly.
Dr. Craig Spinks/ Georgians for Educational Excellence
September 21st, 2012
3:50 pm
Nobody’s gonna get rich selling our USofA short.
This isn’t our first bump in the road. It won’t be our last.
Bruno
September 21st, 2012
3:51 pm
As for charitable giving, according to the article “Over that same stretch of time, they gave an average of 13.45 percent of their adjusted gross income to charity.”
Meanwhile, here are Obama’s charitable contributions:
2005: $77,315 to charity out of income of $1.66 million (4.6 percent)
2004: $2,500 out of $207,647 (1.2 percent)
2003: $3,400 out of $238,327 (1.4 percent)
2002: $1,050 out of $259,394 (0.4 percent)
Linda
September 21st, 2012
3:51 pm
Mr. Dithers@3:35, That is NOT what I said. What I said was that companies go bankrupt even if they make products that consumers demand.
But yes, Obama contributed to the collapse of the economy.
http://beforeitsnews.com/opinion-conservative/2012/09/obama-sued-citibank-in-1995-mortgage-discrimination-case-of-186-obama-client-homeowners-only-19-still-own-homes-multiple-bankruptcies-2473980.html
Apparently, you are not aware of the actual cause of the collapse. First, it was not the “banking industry’s questionable lending programs.” First & foremost, it was the fed. govt. insistence that loans be granted to people who could not afford them. You are familiar with Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac, aren’t you?
HDB
September 21st, 2012
3:53 pm
Tiberius – pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
September 21st, 2012
3:38 pm
Tibbi….I can defend the record….from free-fall–to anemic—to slow!! Goal posts haven’t moved…it’s the stages that the recovery is taking from the depths it started from!!
Condi Rice was given the memo from Richard Clarke in January 2001…the direct pipeline to the President!! Since we were attacked, we can assume that NOTHING was done!! (http://www.nytimes.com/2005/02/12/politics/12clarke.html)
“How does an administration allow their ambassador to travel on the anniversary of 9/11 with three stinkin’ guards, HDB?” THAT one, I don’t know, Tibbi….maybe the threat assessment wasn’t at the level to call for additional protection….or maybe the Ambassador wanted to be low-key in his travels……..
Bruno
September 21st, 2012
3:53 pm
According to this article, Joe Biden gave an average of $369 per year to charity in the decade preceding the 2008 election:
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-09-12-biden-financial_N.htm
More proof that Libs = Losers.
HDB
September 21st, 2012
3:57 pm
Tiberius – pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
September 21st, 2012
3:43 pm
“But as to the slower than average “recovery”? I think lack of consumer and business confidence in anything this President can do is certainly slowing that recovery down.”
Actually, Tibbi, I’d say it’s the contraction of the labor force and the stagnation of wages that has stymied DEMAND..which would generate economic activity!! When someone hasn’t had a raise in three years, it’s hard to buy or upgrade……..when you don’t have a JOB and one party wants to cut unemployment insurance, it’s difficult to purchase anything, let alone survive!!
yuzeyurbrane
September 21st, 2012
3:57 pm
Linda–there have been more regulations under Obama but that is after 8 years of neglect of the consumer, the environment, etc. Actually, it was more than neglect. Budgets of regulatory agencies such as the SEC and EPA (not to mention FEMA) were slashed dramatically and the top levels of political appointees were staffed with incompetents like “Brownie” of FEMA fame. Then we had a crash of historic proportions and the people demanded changes. Congress passes the broad outline in laws; agencies implement the laws by providing the details in regulations. Both are subject to publication and comment by any interested citizens. Unfortunately, it is usually only the lobbyists for monied interests that comment. This time everyone had a say. I won’t defend every regulation that has ever been written but that is how we do it under the rule of law. Now, I will grant that some industries are (and should be) heavily regulated but most really have seen no great increase in regulation under Obama. I have worked in the private sector at the mgt. level and have never seen mgrs. or owners terribly worried, if at all, over the cost of regulations. It is simply one of many costs, a small part of overhead which has a small impact on the cost of their goods. What mgrs. and owners are worried about is how many customers do I have and how much of my product will they buy. If the demand is there it will be produced with hardly the slightest thought as to the cost of regulation. The issue in my view is a politically concocted one that has little to do with the real world.
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
September 21st, 2012
3:58 pm
The Romney’s gave over $4 million to charity last year.
Vote American.
saywhat?
September 21st, 2012
4:02 pm
Tiberius – pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
September 21st, 2012
2:24 pm
“Once again, religious bigot, I am an Agnostic.
I have a tough time believing in things that cannot be proven by science or facts.”
______________________________________________________________________
Except for conservative political dogma, e.g. tax cuts for the rich will increase job growth.
@@
September 21st, 2012
4:02 pm
Is America in trouble no matter who wins the presidency?
No doubt!
I prefer to travel that rocky road with a successful business man and an economics and political science major rather than the “If we can get it, let’s spend it party.”
Last time ’round, it was change for change sake. Next go ’round, it’ll be change for real. The federal bureaucracy is TOO DAMN BIG!
Obama and the dems sugar coat it.
Ryan offers us the painful truth.
The American voter needs to grasp that truth and deal with it.
Rightwing Troll
September 21st, 2012
4:03 pm
A vote for Mittens is a vote for everything you believe in and support… whatever that may be.
Linda
September 21st, 2012
4:04 pm
Liberals do not even know what corporations are. If Bruno or Tiberius drives downtown on Monday & pays $145 to the state of Georgia, they are still Bruno or Tiberius when they return home Monday afternoon & the following week when they receive their paperwork, with the same rights of free speech.
http://www.startbizhere.com/georgia-incorporate-llc.html
Bruno
September 21st, 2012
4:07 pm
A vote for Mittens is a vote for everything you believe in and support… whatever that may be.
And a vote for Obama is a vote for a Lying Lib. Libs talk a mean game about compassion, but can’t seem to put their money where their mouths are. In addition to contributing little to charity, Libs are also much more likely to cheat on their taxes.
http://anepigone.blogspot.com/2009/03/liberals-and-tax-cheating.html
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
September 21st, 2012
4:12 pm
“Actually, Tibbi, I’d say it’s the contraction of the labor force and the stagnation of wages that has stymied DEMAND..which would generate economic activity!!”
So you’re admitting that creating almost 4 million jobs without paying for them hasn’t increased demand, HDB?
Good! Now that we’re both on the same page that Obama’s policies have been a failure, we can move on to bringing in the adults who know how an economy is run.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
September 21st, 2012
4:14 pm
“Except for conservative political dogma, e.g. tax cuts for the rich will increase job growth.”
Nice try, saywhat?, but as usual, another epic fail on your part.
You have never seen me write about such nonsense. I believe in a balanced approach of many different stimuli, and have written often about them.
You might have missed those post while playing Pong in your grandmother’s basement.
saywhat?
September 21st, 2012
4:14 pm
Linda @3:51. Guess again. YOU, young lady, are the one who is woefully unaware of the cause of the housing crisis, perhaps because you read only wight wing wacko crapola disguised as real information. Try this on for size-
http://www.hsgac.senate.gov//imo/media/doc/Financial_Crisis/FinancialCrisisReport.pdf?attempt=2
Verbal Kint
September 21st, 2012
4:15 pm
Quote of the day from one of my favorite bloggers:
“If you really care, you don’t give money yourself. You get the government to force other people to give. That’s what true compassion is all about. Just ask Joe Biden.”
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
September 21st, 2012
4:16 pm
“but that is after 8 years of neglect of the consumer, the environment, etc.”
And yet, I have not seen anything which quantifies that statement as being true.
Lot’s of rhetoric, but nothing else.
saywhat?
September 21st, 2012
4:16 pm
Tiberius may be pulling the tail of the left. On the right however, I think he has mistaken something else for a tail. I think the right likes it.
Streetracer
September 21st, 2012
4:18 pm
Kind of late to this but I have a few questions:
1) To the person up there who questioned anothers “patriotism”, just how patriotic is it to insist that embassy guards have no ammunition (Cairo) or provide an Ambassador with a security detail of local contractors armed with walkie-talkies (Lybia). (Sorry, I can’t spell Benghezi right without looking it up).
2). As far as the economy is conserned, the biggest drag is that noone knowes what future regulations are going to cost them. Companys sit on whatever money they have to cover the future unknowns.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
September 21st, 2012
4:20 pm
Hey, Bruno, don’t forget that in Massachusetts, one of the most liberal states in the nation, residents can check off a box to voluntarily pay a higher percentage of taxes on their income.
Less than 1/32 of one percent choose to do so.
And of those who do, the average income is less than $25,000 per year. Elizabeth Warren doesn’t check that box. Neither does John Kerry. Or any Kennedy.
Libs are the “Do as I say but not as I do” party.
Linda
September 21st, 2012
4:22 pm
yuzey@3:57, Budgets were slashed? You do realize that the US is borrowing 40 cents of every dollar we are spending? That means that 40% of the fed. govt. needs to be eliminated just to break even. Another 10% needs to be eliminated to begin to pay down the debt. 50% of the fed. govt. needs to be eliminated.
The House passed Cap & Trade, but the more level-headed Dem-controlled Senate rejected it. Obama is going around congress & ignoring the rule of law by having the EPA regulate greenhouse gas emissions which have never been proven to cause anything & which the Senate evidently believed were not a problem.
The Dodd-Frank bill will be proven to be an economic nightmare & as unpopular as Obamacare.
The president of the Natl. Ass. of Manufacturers says its 20% more expensive to manufacture in the US than anywhere else in the world, due to tax policy, regulations & our energy policy, excluding LABOR! That’s self-inflicted economic suicide.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
September 21st, 2012
4:22 pm
I accept your apology for misstating my views, saywhat?
Oh, wait.
You didn’t apologize to me.
Color me shocked.
Michael H. Smith
September 21st, 2012
4:24 pm
America will go through hard times no matter what but America will be in worse trouble and have to endure even harder times should obama be re-elected.
This experiment in “socialist democracy” that bagan with Woodrow Wilson has gone about as far with social REDISTRIBUTION as it can fisically go. Our national debt is now a greater threat to our country than any of our enmies abroad Kyle.
Gravy Train
September 21st, 2012
4:25 pm
Ha! Look how many ditto-heads are stuck in Vietnam era economic theory. Once again (ahem…Linda) outdated as your theory is, it’s still just a theory. That means it can’t be proven as fact. That also means that it looks good on paper and in a vacuum it might work properly. Unfortunately, your theory doesn’t account for human greed. For some folks communism was a great theory and it looked great on paper. However, they too forgot to factor in greed. You can give ditto-heads all of the facts and figures in the world and they will still cling to their theories, no matter how many times it’s been proven wrong. At least Willard is willing to give us a different kind of trickle down, but it appears most folks aren’t too keen at being pissed on.
Rightwing Troll
September 21st, 2012
4:26 pm
“How does an administration allow their ambassador to travel on the anniversary of 9/11 with three stinkin’ guards, HDB?”
Got us on that one… Obama really f’ed up there… he’s gonna have to do better next time he makes out the libyan embassy’s schedule…
Rightwing Troll
September 21st, 2012
4:27 pm
So let’s get this straight…
Obama gets NO credit for killing OBL, but has to take the blame for an embassy’s guard schedule?
Bruno
September 21st, 2012
4:29 pm
Hey, Bruno, don’t forget that in Massachusetts, one of the most liberal states in the nation, residents can check off a box to voluntarily pay a higher percentage of taxes on their income.
Less than 1/32 of one percent choose to do so.
Meanwhile, Mr. Warren “The Rich Aren’t Paying Enough Taxes” Buffet continues to fight the IRS in court over a 10 year old unpaid tax bill.
http://articles.businessinsider.com/2012-04-04/wall_street/31284723_1_top-federal-income-tax-warren-buffett-judge-learned-hand
And some of the Libs here wonder why I can’t stand them. Call me crazy, but I just don’t care for lying hypocrites.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
September 21st, 2012
4:29 pm
Want to see why we’re not coming back as quickly as we should?
http://www.cato-at-liberty.org/the-u-s-takes-a-dive-in-economic-freedom-of-the-world-index/#utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Cato-at-liberty+%28Cato+at+Liberty%29&utm_content=Google+Reader
Our government for years has made it harder for us to compete. Not just Obama (but he’s done NOTHING to help it), but nearly every administration over the past 40 years.
Gravy Train
September 21st, 2012
4:29 pm
Ha! Tibi referenced Pong! LOL Now I see. Not only is he a Mormon, he’s an old white Mormon that apparently lives in a cave since the late 70’s.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
September 21st, 2012
4:32 pm
“Obama gets NO credit for killing OBL,”
No so. He gets credit for ordering it. Nothing else. And not exactly a tough call, btw.
“but has to take the blame for an embassy’s guard schedule?”
Yes, because if you want the office you have to take the good with the bad.
Gravy Train
September 21st, 2012
4:33 pm
Bruno said: Call me crazy, but I just don’t care for lying hypocrites.
Then why in blazes are you here trying to pimp Willard on us?
Fourscore
September 21st, 2012
4:33 pm
“And some of the Libs here wonder why I can’t stand them. ”
That is your choice, I doubt many have asked you that question or even pondered it for more than a second; if at all.
Linda
September 21st, 2012
4:35 pm
saywhat@4:14, For one, I have my own personal experience for decades. I know when Fannie & Freddie began relaxing strict lending requirements & how it progressed. The economic collapse was even predicted in the NYT in ‘99.
For two, I have actually read two of the reports from the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission appointed by Obama & agree with them entirely.
There’s much blame for this to go around between the political parties & dozens of other parties, but the main culprit was the fed. govt. & the idea that home ownership was a right, not a privilege, & that everyone deserved the American Dream, whether they could afford it or not.
Michael H. Smith
September 21st, 2012
4:37 pm
This is for the conservatives on this blog: Did you good folks notice the Congressional inquirey of corporations that have offshore outsourced money and operations? Let us not fail to mention one of the most notable names on that list and what big UBER-RICH democrat is the head of it.
Just saying, do any of you conservative folks recogn our wuddle soicalist class warfare wealth hating liberals on this blog that constantly decry the EVIL RICH and scream for wealth REDISTRIBUTION would ever trash Bill Gates and Microsoft, like they have Bain Capital and Mitt Romney?
Gravy Train
September 21st, 2012
4:41 pm
Yeah, I’m sure ole W was setting individual embassy policy in between working on his coloring books or taking all of those vacations on our dime. Folks, you can’t argue with stupid or hate. That’s all you’re going to get from the ditto heads. Other than defense of cults, and trying to paint a four time draft dodger who hides his money over seas, and now apparently counts cult contributions as “charity” as some kind of “successful patriot.” Question: If Willard had such a sterling record as governor, then tell me why he is running and flip flopping away from the record for the last four years. I guess you all didn’t listen to the current governor of Mass. completely eviscerate Willard’s claims as to his record. No, I’ll just take Tibi and Linda at their word, because they’ve already shown how unbiased and current their thinking is. LOL
Gravy Train
September 21st, 2012
4:42 pm
Want to know how I know Tibi is white? Have you ever seen a black Mormon?
Linda
September 21st, 2012
4:46 pm
If the Mideast is in a twit over a movie trailer, just imagine what it will become when the Osama bin Laden movie is released. Obama’s adm. provided all the details to his Hollywood buddies so he would look awesome.
Does anyone know where to buy a Pakistani or Egyptian flag in the Atlanta area? I don’t. Do they have Walmarts & Targets over there? Where in the world are they getting all those American flags to burn? Sears catalog? E-bay? Is that how they are spending our foreign aid?