Is America in trouble no matter who wins the presidency?
Last Friday, I spoke to a local chapter of the Optimist Club. This Friday, I’m going to make sure no one who reads my blog can possibly have any shred of optimism remaining.
Just kidding. Sort of.
In an election season in which the presidential campaigns take turns making mistakes, making one wonder if either candidate really wants to win this thing, Sean Trende at Real Clear Politics lays out a case that neither side should want to win.
It’s the third in a three-part series; the first two installments were an argument for why Barack Obama will be re-elected, and an argument for why Mitt Romney will unseat him. The third piece boils down to: Be careful what you wish for.
Trende cites four factors that, at this point in time, suggest the winner of this election will see his party (or, in Romney’s case, himself) get rocked in the 2014 midterms and 2016 presidential election.
1. The economy. After reviewing the way we have not sprung back from the most recent recession the way we have from previous downturns, Trende notes:
Now consider that the average post-war business cycle lasts about six years from trough to trough. We hit our last trough in mid-2009, which means we should be due for another recession in the next few years.
We could easily begin to contract before we have fully recovered from the last recession. There are already signs that slowdowns in Europe and China are spilling over to our shores. This is probably too late to affect Obama’s re-election chances, but if it turns into a full-blown recession, it would greatly impact 2014 (when 11 Democrats are facing re-election in states that went for George W. Bush).
2. Debt. Here, Trende writes:
The current CBO projection assumes that we will add $3 trillion in debt over the next decade. But the reality is actually much, much worse than that. This assumes that we go off the famous “fiscal cliff” in December and allow all of the Bush tax cuts to expire, allow the full force of the alternative minimum tax to kick in, allow all of the spending cuts agreed to earlier this Congress to kick in, and greatly slash money paid to Medicare providers. Needless to say, if people see their taxes raised, their doctors stop accepting them for care, and we go into a recession, none of this will be popular.
If we assume Congress won’t allow this to occur, then we are looking at the CBO’s “alternate scenario.” It involves an additional $11 trillion in debt over the next few decades.
Even this latter scenario, he notes, is dependent on CBO’s rosy economic growth projections coming true — even though the economy has consistently underperformed CBO forecasts in recent years.
3. Health care. Trende notes that Obamacare is set to get cranked up in earnest in 2014. He imagines two scenarios:
If Obamacare doesn’t work — if seniors really suffer as a result of the benefit cuts to Medicare; if more people get thrown off their employer-sponsored insurance than expected; if insurers get put out of business because people opt to pay the tax rather than get insurance — it will not be a pretty political situation for Democrats.
Even if it works well, there will be problems. Unlike Medicare and Social Security, Obamacare creates obvious winners and losers. We then get to issues of salience: If people who are tossed onto the exchanges are angrier than people who are no longer denied care for pre-existing conditions are happy, there is a political problem for Democrats. If seniors strongly perceive the cuts to Medicare Advantage, but quickly forget about the “donut hole” being closed, there is a political problem for Democrats. There are dozens of such examples. Maybe they cancel each other out, but I wouldn’t bet the proverbial farm on it.
As for Republicans, Trende only maps out a scenario in which a President Romney and Congress repeal the law but don’t replace it with other reforms. Personally, I don’t think that’s the most realistic GOP scenario. But either way, he is probably right that Democrats will claim any shortcomings would have been better under Obamacare and will swing that club against Republicans early and often.
4. Iran. This, Trende says, doesn’t require a lot of theorizing:
In the next few years, one of two things will happen. Either Iran will develop a nuclear weapon, or Israel and the United States will forcibly stop Iran from developing a nuclear weapon.
No American president wants to be the one who oversees the former. And the disruptions that could ensue from the latter would be massive, especially in combination with any of the other factors listed above. Add in the continued difficulties we face in the region in general (as we saw last week), and the problems there are similarly insurmountable.
***
What does all this mean? Is Trende right that either Democrats or Republicans could “win by losing”?
From a purely electoral-politics perspective, maybe. Of course, that would mean neither man is up to the task of creating better outcomes to these challenges. Which is a pretty depressing thought.
But is it a correct thought? Should we really believe America is doomed for the next four years no matter what happens in November?
Let’s hear your arguments why Obama or Romney would avoid disaster on any or all of these four issues. Think of it as a Poll Position without the poll. Just answer in the thread below.
– By Kyle Wingfield
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798 comments Add your comment
getalife
September 21st, 2012
1:05 pm
Bruno,
They are paying off debts but the best way to get them to increase spending is full employment with good jobs.
Just Saying..
September 21st, 2012
1:05 pm
“Bigot”
Geeez, Tiberius. The name calling…
Darwin
September 21st, 2012
1:06 pm
“If Obamacare doesn’t work — if seniors really suffer as a result of the benefit cuts to Medicare;…” I’m confused. Isn’t that the Romney-Ryan Plan?
Bruno
September 21st, 2012
1:07 pm
On a personal note, I’ve cut my credit card debt in half since 2008, and have only 5 more payments until my car is paid off. Instead of drastically increasing my consumer spending, I plan to start saving again for retirement once my debt payments reduce.
Boy, did my midlife crisis cost me dearly. 20 years of savings wiped out……
getalife
September 21st, 2012
1:07 pm
Are we going to replace the outsourced jobs with green energy, back to housing or what?
Gravy Train
September 21st, 2012
1:09 pm
See how Tiberius gets so mad and calls me names because I state facts about the LDS. He’s really a Mormon plant. Creating an illusion of innocence is taught within their wards. They don’t spring the real whoppers on you until you’re financially committed to the cult. Why do innocuous cults need armed compounds around the world if they are so innocent? I’m pretty sure that Jesus said that the only thing a Christian needs to arm themselves with is the word of God.
Bruno
September 21st, 2012
1:11 pm
They are paying off debts but the best way to get them to increase spending is full employment with good jobs.
Unfortunately, it’s kind of a Catch-22. Slow consumer spending = slow job growth = slower consumer spending. But, as the article predicts, consumer spending will rise again once people feel more comfortable with their debt level, thereby reversing the cycle. It’s only a matter of time IMO.
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
September 21st, 2012
1:12 pm
But here is the challenge to our democracy: In this nation I see tens of millions of its citizens—a substantial part of its whole population—who at this very moment are denied the greater part of what the very lowest standards of today call the necessities of life…I see one-third of a nation ill-housed, ill-clad, ill-nourished.
But it is not in despair that I paint you that picture. I paint it for you in hope—because the nation, seeing and understanding the injustice in it, proposes to paint it out. We are determined to make every American citizen the subject of his country’s interest and concern; and we will never regard any faithful law-abiding group within our borders as superfluous. The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little. – Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1937
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
September 21st, 2012
1:13 pm
getalife, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics own data, the GROSS amount of jobs created since Obama took office is only 4,359,000. When you subtract the job losses that occurred (and I’m being generous and only beginning at 2010 to give his stimulus package a chance to take effect), you get a NET increase of only 3,981,000 jobs, and most of them are lower wage jobs that don’t pay nearly as much as the jobs previously lost.
Anemic would be a generous term for this job growth.
Bruno
September 21st, 2012
1:15 pm
Americans are the kids with the maxed out credit card, no real assets, and no way of paying for next month’s rent. Dad is yelling to be more responsible (stop spending) and get a job (raise taxes), but we’re just getting more credit cards instead. It’s probably going to end in disaster unless someone listens to Dad.
JF Mc–I’m willing to pay a little more in taxes, but only if the reckless spending is addressed.
getalife
September 21st, 2012
1:15 pm
Bruno,
Certainty would help but they are still outsourcing jobs and we have to replace them here with something else.
w used housing. Our President wants to use green energy but open to new ideas.
cc
September 21st, 2012
1:15 pm
getalife@12:36 pm:
“romney left Mass. in debt and in bad shape. Worst in job creation. Failed gov. and would be another w disaster.” and . . .
“We recovered around five million. You dug us a big hole and we are crawling out.” and . . .
“Economy and housing are bouncing back.” and . . .
“We are back on the right track and not back in recession” and . . .
Please, please tell me where you got this information? Your statements are patently false.
“Wars are over in 14 or sooner.”
This is stupid. The events in the Middle East (if you get off this blog long enough to check) doesn’t indicate that at all. We will be at war with terrorists until either we or they are defeated.
“Economists predict we add 12 million jobs in our President’s second term”
There is also false. More jobs may be added, particularly if Obama appoints more czars, hires more dog handlers and increases the size of the IRS again, but WE have to pay them.
“We recovered around five million (jobs).”
Again, your number is false. I can tell you, however, about the jobs that Obama has eliminated.
1. People who work for coal companies, because their industry is not deemed worthy in the eyes of liberal green policies, and
2. The thousands of employees of GM auto dealerships that were forced to close by Obama’s goons. (A very, very high percentage of those were NOT Obama supporters and did not contribute to his 2008 campaign)
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
September 21st, 2012
1:15 pm
“Notice how his blog handle implies impartiality, yet he is always bashing the president and singing the praises of Willard?”
You need to upgrade you’re reading comprehension skills, bigot.
Mr. Dithers
September 21st, 2012
1:16 pm
But I thought “slow and steady wins the race”, Tiberius? No, or only when a Republican is president?
getalife
September 21st, 2012
1:19 pm
“Anemic would be a generous term for this job growth.”
I guess you missed the words “slow job growth”.
I agree but we are not back in a recession.
They BOTH suck
September 21st, 2012
1:20 pm
“So, please take what he says with a grain of salt,”
Most do that with you on all the blogs.
Gravy Train
September 21st, 2012
1:20 pm
Careful, Tiberius, your magic underwear is showing!
Call It Like It Is
September 21st, 2012
1:21 pm
“But, as the article predicts, consumer spending will rise again once people feel more comfortable with their debt level, thereby reversing the cycle.” Ding, ding, ding……..we have a winner. But I would take it a little bit further, consumers will start spending again when they are comfortable with what they feel the future will bring. Right now too many questions. Will Obama care work? Will my insurance go up? Will my taxes go up? People tend to batten down the hatches when there is so much unknown. Top that off with the war drums in the middle east, north and south Korea shooting missiles at each other, China and Japan rattling their swords and continue fighting in Afghanistan. Not a very pretty picture right now and quite frankly neither candidate has impressed me to this point.
getalife
September 21st, 2012
1:21 pm
cc,
I do not respond to blatant lies like that.
JF McNamara
September 21st, 2012
1:21 pm
@Bruno,
I’m willing to pay more too, but someone needs to come out with a detailed, executable plan. No line items about cutting spending. I want to know exactly what will be cut and when and exactly how it will get us back to a balanced budget. It’s a basic math exercise, but no one seems to be able to complete it.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
September 21st, 2012
1:22 pm
“Our President wants to use green energy but open to new ideas.”
I hope so, ’cause that green energy thing was a waste of taxpayer funds.
getalife
September 21st, 2012
1:23 pm
congress went home.
getalife
September 21st, 2012
1:24 pm
“I hope so, ’cause that green energy thing was a waste of taxpayer funds”
Some Internet start ups failed too.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
September 21st, 2012
1:24 pm
“I guess you missed the words “slow job growth”.
And yet, I didn’t. Anemic is a much more accurate description than slow.
“I agree but we are not back in a recession.”
Yet.
KlinTisha
September 21st, 2012
1:26 pm
“Should we really believe America is doomed for the next four years …”
If you believe the Mayan calander Dec. 21 EOTW thing then you don’t need to worry about it. Personally I’m not budgeting any $ for Christmas presents this year.
A dad
September 21st, 2012
1:28 pm
I have been asking on this and Bookman’s blog for someone to outline for me the DETAILS of what Obama’s “plan” to recover/grow the economy is. And I’m talking details, not regurgitated talking points. Nor generic, actually saying nothing, campaign cr@p. Getalife at 12:26, you said the president’s pan ins a good one, so apparently you are privy to some of those details. Would you please share? Thanks.
Gravy Train
September 21st, 2012
1:28 pm
Yes Tiberius, your blog handle is meant to illustrate either your impartiality or your love for inbred Roman emperors. Yet here you are, day after day, extolling the virtues of Willard while Obama bashing. Stop trying to insult our intelligence. If you don’t want people to talk about your cult, stop putting members of your cult up for public office.
mississippi
September 21st, 2012
1:29 pm
Tiberius – In case you aren’t just saying crazy things to stir people up, I don’t know how you could support Romney in a race for dog catcher. The man has taken every possible position on every important issue. The only consistent thing in his career has been his desire to get elected. If you vote for him, you might be getting Obama II or you might be getting Bush III. You might even be getting something a lot worse.
cc
September 21st, 2012
1:31 pm
I have it on good authority that Gravy Train was one of the wives of a polygamist Mormon, divorced by her husband, disgraced in public and expelled from the Mormon Church. Which explains her fixation on Mormons.
Bobby
September 21st, 2012
1:31 pm
The big problem with the GOP, and Romney/Ryan in particular, is they have presented any solid ideas as to how they would do a better job with the economy than Obama. They have presented no ideas as to resolving the health care issue of people not having access to health care. In short they have presented nothing that indicates they would do anything different from the Obama administration, except enforce Christian church doctrines down everyone’s throat to satisfy the Tea Party Movement and the right wing of the GOP. They have presented no original ideas. And that is why I’m not voting for Romney/Ryan. I’m not enamored with Obama but at least I know what we have to work with as long as Obama is President.
A dad
September 21st, 2012
1:32 pm
Also, the Obama administration has not created 4.5 million jobs like Biden claimed. One of those politically neutral fact checking organizations laid it all out, and in 4 years, we are up 415,000 jobs.
Also, re #4 on Kyle’s list, given Obama’s treatment of Israel, I for one wouldn’t be surprised if he would allow Iran to build a bomb. Of course, Israel will act unilaterally which, given all the recent demonstrations throughout Muslim countries this past week, would only touch off what would amount to a holy war. Shame for Obama. usually, the majority Jewish vote is democratic, but last poll I saw had him seeing a severe drop in polling numbers.
Bruno
September 21st, 2012
1:35 pm
I want to know exactly what will be cut and when and exactly how it will get us back to a balanced budget. It’s a basic math exercise, but no one seems to be able to complete it.
JF Mc–As you alluded to earlier, no one has the political will to stand up and do what’s right, particularly Obama and the Dems who think we can spend our way to prosperity. The most patriotic thing we can do right now is to get our country back on solid financial footing. i trust Romney far more than Obama to make the tough financial choices.
getalife
September 21st, 2012
1:36 pm
A dad,
It is really simple.
Instead of focusing on the rich getting richer with more welfare they don’t need like the gop, we focus on middle class jobs.
It is like his change in strategy to focus on aq to get obl.
Auntie Christ
September 21st, 2012
1:37 pm
Tiberius – pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
September 21st, 2012
12:34 pm
You may question my optimism all you want, getalife, but you may not EVER question my patriotism.
**************************************
Dang right! because we all know the white/right wing is the most patiotic, that’s why they form militias and talk about “taking our government back” (even tho our government is voted into office by the majority, the militias will correct our ‘mistakes’ because that what patriots do);. that’s why the ‘patriots’ on the right form klans and klaverns, to keep all the unAmericans in line; that’s why they want to wipe out ‘voter fraud,’ because there have been over ten cases of it in the last ten years, and if by chance a few Black, Latino or poor voters are eliminated ‘by mistake,’ well that’s just the price of patriotism; that’s why the white/right wing ‘loves America,’ but hate the majority of Americans; that’s why they put political party ahead of their country, because adhering to party orthodoxy and ensuring Obama’s Presidency fails, is more important than the overall health of the country.
So there, getalife, don’t ever question a white winger’s patriotism, it is so obvious that they love their country, I’m surprised you can’t see it.
They BOTH suck
September 21st, 2012
1:38 pm
A dad
If the IDF and Mossad have all the evidence they need, no one is stopping them from doing what they must to protect their interests.
Whether the US plays a direct or indirect role, Iran will use their proxies (Hezbollah & Hamas) to retaliate in some form or another.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
September 21st, 2012
1:39 pm
“or your love for inbred Roman emperors.”
And you would be wrong about that as well, Gravy Train.
getalife
September 21st, 2012
1:40 pm
“I’m surprised you can’t see it.”
It is very obvious but thanks for reminding them.
jconservative
September 21st, 2012
1:43 pm
I would say that for the economic side who wins the presidential election is not critical.
As I have noted previously, over and over, the number of “net” jobs (jobs created less jobs lost) being created in the US has been declining since the mid 1970’s. This is a long term trend that has been in place regardless of tax policy. Yet both parties still pretend that tax policy is the solution. Both parties ignore the changes brought to the economy by technology and globalization.
The Ryan Plan claims it will balance the budget by 2040. Why on earth would it take 27 years to balance a budget? In 1997 the FY 1998 budget was balanced in 9 months (see Rep. John Kasich, Sen. Pete Dominici and Pres. Bill Clinton for details).
The Obama Plan does not exist as of today. Maybe tomorrow?
In 1981 the American voter realized that he controlled the US Treasury, that the Treasury could be raided through the use of tax cuts. He was able to get away with the “theft”, if I may be so bold, because he kept the spending for Government Services that all demanded going “full steam ahead”.
And he sincerely thought that with reduced revenue and increased spending that the government’s books would balance at the end of the day.
So what will a new president do? He will ask a Republican House and a Democratic Senate to compromise on a plan to ————————-(fill in the blank).
Good luck to us all.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
September 21st, 2012
1:43 pm
“I don’t know how you could support Romney in a race for dog catcher.”
Because I want someone who has a proven record of successfully solving problems throughout his entire lifetime, mississippi.
“The only consistent thing in his career has been his desire to get elected.”
Wrong at every level. The only constant thing about his career has been SUCCESS. I can see how you might not recognize that state given the current officeholder, but it actually exists.
Reality
September 21st, 2012
1:43 pm
Yes…..
If Romney wins the election, there is actually a chance that these idiotic republican policies that got the US into trouble to begin with will actually clear the Congress. So, the proverbial ship will again begin to sink.
If Obama wins the election, there remains the republicans in Congress that are determined to block every single piece of legislation no matter what out of spite.
getalife
September 21st, 2012
1:43 pm
” i trust Romney far more than Obama to make the tough financial choice”
I don’t and don’t trust him on his taxes too. He would focus on his friends only and made that clear on that tape. He hates workers.
Never trust and always verify.
Bruno
September 21st, 2012
1:44 pm
I have been asking on this and Bookman’s blog for someone to outline for me the DETAILS of what Obama’s “plan” to recover/grow the economy is. And I’m talking details, not regurgitated talking points. Nor generic, actually saying nothing, campaign cr@p.
dad–It’s beyond me why the Libs are so in love with Obama. He might be a good President if the Treasury was overflowing with surplus funds just waiting to be spent. His only strategy thus far is to throw money at our problems and hope it will all work out.
As “mississippi” points out above, Romney has his flaws as well, but I trust him far more on financial issues than Obama. Right now it’s a matter of priorities, and getting back on solid financial footing is tops on the list.
Auntie Christ
September 21st, 2012
1:46 pm
Where are the jobs? Don’t ask Obama, ask the ‘job creators’ like Paris Hilton or donald trump that had their taxes cut so they would create jobs, or ask the 4000+ millionaires or the 14000+ who made over $500k who paid 0 income tax last year (on second thought don’t ask them, they are part of that 47% who are whiners depending on government to care for them). It’s been 10+ years since their taxes were cut, where is that ‘trickle down’ we were promised by the party representing the millionaire ‘job creators?’
getalife
September 21st, 2012
1:47 pm
We are back on the economy and the hard numbers prove it.
You can ignore this fact but it makes you look silly.
breakfastfor2
September 21st, 2012
1:47 pm
What are you talking about? Iran will have a nuclear bomb no matter what. You only prevent that by an invasion and occupation and dismantling program, not by a bombing campaign from the sky. Since Iran has 71m people and are more armed and capable than the Iraq army, good luck with that one. Iran will not launch nuclear weapons against Israel because they know what will be launched against them. The whole Iranian plan is to make sure nobody has a good nights sleep in Israel, Saudi Arabia and NYC. They have already partly achieved that anyway.
solution is to move the whole Israel population to Georgia and leave the desert to the Arabs. The incoming Israelis will bring so much tech and business skills that Georgia will improve in education and jobs.
The money they bring with them will be enough to pay off the entire national debt – I say make forfeiture the price of entry into Georgia, which should immediately secede from the US and call itself Jerusalem republic.
About the national debt, we should refuse to pay it if anyone comes calling for the bonds to be honored. We have guns and airplanes with bombs. Let them start something of they can. DON’T PAY.
that’s my plan and i challenge anyone here to a debate about it.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
September 21st, 2012
1:50 pm
“They have presented no ideas as to resolving the health care issue of people not having access to health care.”
Then you aren’t reading enough, Bobby.
In short they have presented nothing that indicates they would do anything different from the Obama administration”
Seriously? I can’t believe you could type that with a straight face.
“, except enforce Christian church doctrines down everyone’s throat to satisfy the Tea Party Movement and the right wing of the GOP.”
Cite?
“They have presented no original ideas.”
Oh, so now you want “original” ideas?
“And that is why I’m not voting for Romney/Ryan. I’m not enamored with Obama but at least I know what we have to work with as long as Obama is President.”
Failure at every turn? You’re voting for THAT again?
Joe America
September 21st, 2012
1:53 pm
I completely ignore the politicians, they lie all the time. They are the greatest peddlers of false hopes and exaggerated claims. As far as I can tell the average American remanded stagnate for the last couple years barley living paycheck to paycheck if they are one of the lucky 70 to 80 percent that have employment. I see wage deflation (people taking lower pay) and mild inflation of things like gasoline food and imported goods. All the FED actions QE3 etc. will not help make things better but keep things from getting worse quickly for the average American. More QE is like feeding a drug habit. Ironically the gold standard had the same effect in the late 19th century. I see the average American slowly getting weighted down until they eventually drown, this process takes years sometimes decades. Yet all this makes those with money wealthier.
To keep the peace it’s been bread and circuses time with large scale government handouts and media distractions. We are not in a time like the Great Depression but a time like the Guilded Age of the 19th century. Because our problems are deeply structural and politically incorrect to address I see no chance this will be fixed by politicians, in fact I think they may make things worse.
The world outside of the Anglospear is undergoing major social change this could be the catalysis for a large scale change in a socially stagnate America. One more note, change is occurring inside America and no politician is behind any of it right now. It is on the very edge of media awareness and is often politically incorrect at this time.
Gravy Train
September 21st, 2012
1:56 pm
Dude uses a guy’s name as a blog handle and doesn’t even know who he is, too? Tiberius, your house of cards is getting rather shaky at the moment.
Also, if Israel is big and bad enough to keep kicking Muslims off of their land, then they are big enough to handle the repercussions of that policy without us. Why do you think it’s so easy for Palestinians and other radical Islamic factions to so easily drudge up hatred for us? It’s because up until now, we have openly supported the Israeli expansionist project along with the fact that we’ve propped up many despots in the region as long as they give us access to their oil. All of the wealth from that oil is hoarded by whatever regime is in power and the common people in the region get the shaft. Part of defusing the hostilities would be openly recognizing this scenario while recognizing, at the same time, the right of both Israelis and Palestinians to exist.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
September 21st, 2012
1:56 pm
“The Ryan Plan claims it will balance the budget by 2040. Why on earth would it take 27 years to balance a budget? In 1997 the FY 1998 budget was balanced in 9 months”
First, it was never actually balanced. Smoke and mirrors and using SS revenues as General revenues to make it look like it was balanced.
Second, we have a much larger deficit to corral, and a much more uncertain economy to work with.
There is also the political ramifications of this, which is that if they tried to cut too much too soon, the left would be all over them for starving children and throwing granny off the cliff.
Linda
September 21st, 2012
1:56 pm
There has not been one NET job created in the US since Obama was inaugurated, according to the Bureau of Labor. According to the second chart, the unemployment rate was 7.8% when Obama took the oath in 1/09. It climbed to its peak of 10% in 10/09. It stayed above 9% for the rest of ‘09, all of ‘10 & all of ‘11 until 10/11. It has remained above 8% since 10/11.
Simple math. 8.1% is higher than 7.8%. The number of jobs lost were greater than the number of jobs gained under Obama, resulting in a net job loss. Obama still has not created one single net job. Zilch! Nada!
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000