Is America in trouble no matter who wins the presidency?
Last Friday, I spoke to a local chapter of the Optimist Club. This Friday, I’m going to make sure no one who reads my blog can possibly have any shred of optimism remaining.
Just kidding. Sort of.
In an election season in which the presidential campaigns take turns making mistakes, making one wonder if either candidate really wants to win this thing, Sean Trende at Real Clear Politics lays out a case that neither side should want to win.
It’s the third in a three-part series; the first two installments were an argument for why Barack Obama will be re-elected, and an argument for why Mitt Romney will unseat him. The third piece boils down to: Be careful what you wish for.
Trende cites four factors that, at this point in time, suggest the winner of this election will see his party (or, in Romney’s case, himself) get rocked in the 2014 midterms and 2016 presidential election.
1. The economy. After reviewing the way we have not sprung back from the most recent recession the way we have from previous downturns, Trende notes:
Now consider that the average post-war business cycle lasts about six years from trough to trough. We hit our last trough in mid-2009, which means we should be due for another recession in the next few years.
We could easily begin to contract before we have fully recovered from the last recession. There are already signs that slowdowns in Europe and China are spilling over to our shores. This is probably too late to affect Obama’s re-election chances, but if it turns into a full-blown recession, it would greatly impact 2014 (when 11 Democrats are facing re-election in states that went for George W. Bush).
2. Debt. Here, Trende writes:
The current CBO projection assumes that we will add $3 trillion in debt over the next decade. But the reality is actually much, much worse than that. This assumes that we go off the famous “fiscal cliff” in December and allow all of the Bush tax cuts to expire, allow the full force of the alternative minimum tax to kick in, allow all of the spending cuts agreed to earlier this Congress to kick in, and greatly slash money paid to Medicare providers. Needless to say, if people see their taxes raised, their doctors stop accepting them for care, and we go into a recession, none of this will be popular.
If we assume Congress won’t allow this to occur, then we are looking at the CBO’s “alternate scenario.” It involves an additional $11 trillion in debt over the next few decades.
Even this latter scenario, he notes, is dependent on CBO’s rosy economic growth projections coming true — even though the economy has consistently underperformed CBO forecasts in recent years.
3. Health care. Trende notes that Obamacare is set to get cranked up in earnest in 2014. He imagines two scenarios:
If Obamacare doesn’t work — if seniors really suffer as a result of the benefit cuts to Medicare; if more people get thrown off their employer-sponsored insurance than expected; if insurers get put out of business because people opt to pay the tax rather than get insurance — it will not be a pretty political situation for Democrats.
Even if it works well, there will be problems. Unlike Medicare and Social Security, Obamacare creates obvious winners and losers. We then get to issues of salience: If people who are tossed onto the exchanges are angrier than people who are no longer denied care for pre-existing conditions are happy, there is a political problem for Democrats. If seniors strongly perceive the cuts to Medicare Advantage, but quickly forget about the “donut hole” being closed, there is a political problem for Democrats. There are dozens of such examples. Maybe they cancel each other out, but I wouldn’t bet the proverbial farm on it.
As for Republicans, Trende only maps out a scenario in which a President Romney and Congress repeal the law but don’t replace it with other reforms. Personally, I don’t think that’s the most realistic GOP scenario. But either way, he is probably right that Democrats will claim any shortcomings would have been better under Obamacare and will swing that club against Republicans early and often.
4. Iran. This, Trende says, doesn’t require a lot of theorizing:
In the next few years, one of two things will happen. Either Iran will develop a nuclear weapon, or Israel and the United States will forcibly stop Iran from developing a nuclear weapon.
No American president wants to be the one who oversees the former. And the disruptions that could ensue from the latter would be massive, especially in combination with any of the other factors listed above. Add in the continued difficulties we face in the region in general (as we saw last week), and the problems there are similarly insurmountable.
***
What does all this mean? Is Trende right that either Democrats or Republicans could “win by losing”?
From a purely electoral-politics perspective, maybe. Of course, that would mean neither man is up to the task of creating better outcomes to these challenges. Which is a pretty depressing thought.
But is it a correct thought? Should we really believe America is doomed for the next four years no matter what happens in November?
Let’s hear your arguments why Obama or Romney would avoid disaster on any or all of these four issues. Think of it as a Poll Position without the poll. Just answer in the thread below.
– By Kyle Wingfield
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798 comments Add your comment
Linda
September 23rd, 2012
10:16 pm
mike (with a small m for no apparent reason), I grew up in a Democratic town & was raised by parents who were Democrats. My husband married me in spite of the fact that I was a Democrat. I’m still a registered Democrat & voted Democrat decades ago.
My parents would be appalled at how the natl. Dem. party has become progressive, Marxist, socialist, communist, statiest, etc.
Iowa St Fair
September 23rd, 2012
10:17 pm
many
mike
September 23rd, 2012
10:19 pm
Oh! Mary! Mother of God! Linda’s a Democrat! Bring me the smelling salts! I’m feeling faint! Say it ain’t so! How did you get that job at your company?
mike
September 23rd, 2012
10:28 pm
I guess I’m going to go watch the game.
Kyle’s going to have an interesting time tomorrow morning. I doubt if any of the “personal insulters” or profanity users have anything to worry about. Kyle’s not going to give them any “days off.” If he did it would be a big surprise to me.
Just remember, I never insulted any of you, despite your vile attacks. Good night.
Iowa St Fair
September 23rd, 2012
10:32 pm
My husband married me in spite of the fact that I was a Democrat.
-____________________________
hahahahahaha
Pile on the crap why don’t you
Linda
September 23rd, 2012
10:35 pm
mike (with a small m) @9:59, Here’s the US debt clock. Please scroll down to social security & let all of us know how you ascertain that there’s $3 T in the account, when there seems to be a minus $16 T in the account. We are waiting breathlessly for your answer.
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
Is your $3 T in chits, that is, IOUs, from a fed. govt. which is broke? Did you hear that on the children’s hour on MSNBC & did you actually believe it & pass it along as fact on a conservative blog without verifying it on the internet? Can you cite a site or are you content to believe in cartoons? Do you honestly believe that conservatives on this blog won’t question every data point that is offered? In other words, do you think we are collectively stupid?
mike
September 23rd, 2012
10:50 pm
“Far from being “worthless IOUs,” the investments held by the trust funds are backed by the full faith and credit of the U. S. Government. The government has always repaid Social Security, with interest. The special-issue securities are, therefore, just as safe as U.S. Savings Bonds or other financial instruments of the Federal government.”
http://www.ssa.gov/oact/progdata/fundFAQ.html
Linda, I have to hand it to you, you don’t give up. Lil Barry and the others left long ago, but here you are still going strong.
Linda
September 23rd, 2012
10:50 pm
mike(without a capital letter) @10:09, Ever been to a natl. or state park & read the signs: Please do not feed the wildlife? Ever wondered why those signs were there? If we feed the wildlife, they will be ever more dependent upon being fed..
We feed those who are hungry but must encourage them to work. That’s the Republican way.
The Democratic way is to feed the hungry & the non-hungry until the feeders are non-existent, at which time, everyone goes hungry.
mike
September 23rd, 2012
10:57 pm
Linda you have a sickness. A sickness that you are not even aware of.
The only thing that stands between you and those who you despise is your job.
Have you ever given a moment’s thought as to what would happen to you if you were called to the boss’s office on a Friday afternoon?
How about if it happened to your husband? Or both of you?
Pride is not a good long term life strategy.
Empathy for those less fortunate than you might keep you from becoming one of them.
Linda
September 23rd, 2012
11:03 pm
mike (without a capital m)@10:50, You did read Kyle’s article, didn’t you? You do know that the fed. govt. is broke, don’t you? You do know that there is NO money & no way to pay for the social security benefits & Medicare & Medicaid benefits in the near or distant future, don’t you? You do know that our credit rating has been downgraded twice, don’t you? You do know that interest rates are at artificially low rates & that it is only a matter of time when they will go up, don’t you? You do know that when they go up, that we will be borrowing money to pay for the debt service & that the budget will drastically reduce entitlements & spending for natl. security, don’t you? You do know that we are on the road to Greece or to a more familiar economy, that of communist California?
Hillbilly D
September 23rd, 2012
11:07 pm
Have you ever given a moment’s thought as to what would happen to you if you were called to the boss’s office on a Friday afternoon?
The time I got laid off it was first thing on a Monday morning. As I told the guy, “You could at least have done it Friday evening and I wouldn’t have had to get up and drive in this morning”.
bluecoat
September 23rd, 2012
11:13 pm
Mike she said breathlessly.Some people just don’t know when to be silent.
Gravy Train
September 23rd, 2012
11:18 pm
Willard has you all fleeced even with these latest numbers. He really would owe over $140 million in taxes. I would think that people who pay what they really owe would be offended by the very notion of one Willard Romney, chosen poster boy of the plutocrats. Every poll says they are, even the one on Fox News! Where are your Willard stickers and signs people?
Linda
September 23rd, 2012
11:24 pm
mike(without a capital m) @ 10:57, Let me tell you how wrong you are in you assessment of me:
*I’m well.
*I don’t despise anyone.
*I don’t have a job.
*I don’t have a boss.
*My husband doesn’t have a job.
*My husband doesn’t have a boss.
*My father never walked a step in his life.
*Our pride has always been doing for those less fortunate than ourselves, without fanfare.
Confused?
bluecoat
September 23rd, 2012
11:32 pm
Communist California-Ain’t that where the republicans got their empty chair spokesman.Suppose he would appreciate being called communist,but may just be correct title.
Gravy Train
September 23rd, 2012
11:34 pm
*I don’t have a job.
*I don’t have a boss.
*My husband doesn’t have a job.
*My husband doesn’t have a boss. Linda
Looks like we’ve got ourselves a self hating “moocher.”
Gravy Train
September 23rd, 2012
11:36 pm
She got drunk and blogged like mad! She couldn’t help herself, and now, the cat is out of the bag.
Gravy Train
September 23rd, 2012
11:45 pm
It’s not Obama’s fault that you are drunk and lonely. It’s not his fault that your husband doesn’t pay attention to you anymore. You do have a right to be angry about the situation. There is more to life than your dogs and their intricate hierarchy. It sounds like you might be spending too much time with them instead of living. You can do it. We are the Change. Go back to your roots and visit for a spell.
yuzeyurbrane
September 24th, 2012
12:05 am
Mike & Gravy Train—-just take a deep breath and laugh at Linda. She and her pals are in their alternative universe. You will never post more than her even though she repeats herself endlessly; she will claim to be the holder of the truth based on facts she has researched even when you dispute her facts with other more factual facts, she will urge con posters to post on swing state blogs but refuses to post on Bookman because it is a “cult”, she will decry the poor manners of those that disagree with her and then call them communist, socialist, takers and the like and declare them to be grave dangers to the republic, she tells a compelling up by the bootstraps story of herself which I suspect comes from her vivid imagination, and she above seems to imply that she and her husband are not employed while in other posts has claimed to be a successful businesswoman (presumptively, one of the “makers”). Linda is a woman’s name and I presume therefore that Linda is a she but one really does not know what is fact and made up by her.
Linda
September 24th, 2012
12:32 am
Gravy Train@ 11:34 & 11:36, You left off my quote that my father never walked a step in his life & who never received a dime of assistance from the govt..
My husband & I have been independent contractors most of our lives, paying out of our pockets for our own health insurance & retirement.
Shame on you for insinuating that my husband & I were “moochers.”
What a pitiful claim by a Democrat/liberal.
Charles
September 24th, 2012
12:52 am
Gravy@11:45, I’m Linda’s husband. You insulted my wife. Don’t say another word against my wife. Do you understand me?
lefty_316
September 24th, 2012
1:39 am
Yes, Kyle, we are in trouble no matter who wins. If and when we take the money out of politics we may get some legislation that benefits most Americans but until then corporations will keep buying legislation at the expense of the middle class.
If you get a chance to read The Party is Over by Mike Lofgren, a GOP policy wonk who spent 28 years in Washington, do take the opportunity. From The Party Is Over:
“Birth certificates, death panels, sharia law, and all the other so-called isues that have roiled us for the past few years are the kabuki theater of American politics. Far away from the political stage of make-believe, and behind the closed doors of corporate America, is where the real show goes on, and where the real decisions are made.”
Linda
September 24th, 2012
1:44 am
Yuzey@12:05, As you laugh at me, we laugh at you & yours. As you laugh, the economy is not exactly laughable.
You claim that “she and her husband are not employed while in other posts has claimed to be a successful businesswoman (presumptively, one of the “makers”).”
Is that an inconsistency?
We are self-employed, not employees, & very successful business people. We have never expected any company to provide for our health care nor our retirement. We have paid out of our pocket for our health care & invested in our retirement. That might be foreign to you, but it’s in the real world.
.
“Linda is a woman’s name and I presume therefore that Linda is a she but one really does not know what is fact and made up by her.”
Yes, I’m a woman. Yes, I’m Linda.
Isn’t it refreshing to find not just one, but two people, married to each other, who not just survive but prosper in their retirement years without the fed. govt.?
Linda
September 24th, 2012
2:33 am
Yuzey, OK, you convinced me. I just blogged on that site.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
September 24th, 2012
5:44 am
“Far from being “worthless IOUs,” the investments held by the trust funds are backed by the full faith and credit of the U. S. Government.”
And if the government which backs these “trust funds” goes belly-up?
As it is about to do?
mediumdad
September 24th, 2012
6:02 am
Obama needs to remain on the Steven Colbert Report where he belongs. I’ll go for Romney all the way.
Obama care makes people suffer, It will be alot more entertaining to see Romney try to take away womens rights, lol We havent had a good president since John Kennedy, accept Jimmy Carter, dont expect much for the next four years…………….
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
September 24th, 2012
6:22 am
Is America in trouble no matter who wins the presidency?
—————————-
Of course. And we’d rather have someone who will do something about it instead of a do-nothing empty chair.
mediumdad
September 24th, 2012
6:53 am
Both lousy bush presidents had the same attitude as nixon. “if the president does it, it’s not a crime”
We need to get rid of this presidential immunity b.s.. They are all three war criminals, and the list goes on and on. We wouldnt have a do-nothing empty chair then. Someone would have to TRY to do whats best for the US, instead of their special interests.
Gravy Train
September 24th, 2012
7:12 am
Wait Linda, I thought you said you were an economics teacher? More inconsistency? Charles, valiant effort to sound like you care. Being a good husband is much more than talking tough on a blog, pops. The tangled webs they weave, indeed. Lastly, at your age, I would be more concerned with happiness, you don’t sound very happy, ever. Food for thought.
Gravy Train
September 24th, 2012
7:15 am
Now “Linda” has to defend herself with a “Charles.” I don’t think the real “Charles” cares. Any how, after reading the rambles of the ditto-heads, is it any wonder that their “movement” started by Reagan, has finally met it’s bitter end? I guess there just aren’t enough angry white people anymore. LOL
independent thinker
September 24th, 2012
7:30 am
It seems that pretty much everyone here agrees on one thing – our former president and reformed drunk ran the country into the ditch. When I hear Romney and Ryan admitting that instead of blaming Obama for all the counties problems and show how trickle down has increased private sector jobs, I will be all ears.Anyone truly believe Romney can deliver on his promise to create twelve million jobs? where?
Gravy Train
September 24th, 2012
7:37 am
You’re right, independent thinker. Obama has brought the wrecker and has gotten us out of the ditch. The plutocrats don’t want to pay for the repairs. That is the perfect analogy. Thank you.
Gravy Train
September 24th, 2012
7:41 am
The plutocrats were counting on an army of brainless wonders and other ditto heads to carry Willard to victory. Willard’s alienation of virtually every demographic, save the super rich white folks ( the greedy ones any way) has already insured his defeat.
James
September 24th, 2012
7:56 am
ALL MILITARY VOTES SHOULD BE COUNTED !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
mediumdad
September 24th, 2012
8:42 am
right James, and all eligible voters in Florida should be as well
mediumdad
September 24th, 2012
8:50 am
But thats not how the supreme court works. As in bushes case, when the bushes say jump, the supreme court asks “How high”. I wasnt aware that all military votes werent counted. Whats the story behind that?
Dave from GT
September 24th, 2012
8:53 am
16….17….18…..19…….?? trillion !!!!!!
tick tock, tick tock, tick tock……….
Bernanke…….. QE1…….2…….3…..4…..????
Wake up ! Who has a way to stop this crazy behaviour ?
Kyle…… if you think we are up to attacking Iran, you better make sure the Chinese parts suppliers are up to production……. and allowed to produce. Because we have outsourced all that capability and sold off all the production assets for 10 cents on the dollar.
So please…….. tell me which one of the happy idiots running for President knows how to get us out of the box ???? Surely not more of those F.. ing MBA’s !!
Robert
September 24th, 2012
9:01 am
Romney/Ryan will not win the White House in 2012. That is a fact and the GOP must take advantage of this opportunity and move the party to the “center” and recruit moderate candidates and built momentum to re-capture the White House in 2016. The American People are not happy with the extreme right wing GOP choices for the President/Vice President (Romney/Ryan). The current GOP strategy will not win the White House and will lose several seats in both the House and Senate in 2012.
The good news is the GOP has a great opportunity to get rid of all the right wing extremist in the party (tea party, birther’s, etc.) that has held the GOP and the American People hostage over the past 4 years. The GOP must create a winning strategy for 2016.
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
September 24th, 2012
9:29 am
I can’t figure out why the libs all want to declare that the election is over? If your guy is winning, the ride should be enjoyable, but yet, you can’t wait to get it over. Are you afraid that the tide is turning? Afraid that any day now the truth will leak out? Afraid that someone in the MSM, will get tired of the endless coverup job, and spill the beans. Afraid that there will be more foreign policy failures? Afraid that the Oct employment numbers will be down again for the 43rd month? Afraid that Biden is going to pop off one time too many? Afraid that the new season of American Idol is going to captivate your voters and they will forget about the election? Afraid, that Romney is going to expose Obama, as an empty suit in the debates?
Dems all afraid of the coming month and want to declare the election over. Doesn’t matter, you can’t move the vote up.
Just Saying..
September 24th, 2012
9:35 am
from CNN Political Ticker: “Reince Priebus described the emergence of secretly recorded video featuring Romney making controversial comments at a May fund-raiser as a “defining” moment.”
“..defining..”? Are you serious? The GOP is paying this guy?
With friends like this…
Just Saying..
September 24th, 2012
9:38 am
“can’t move the vote up”
No need, Rafe. Voting started today…
Just Saying..
September 24th, 2012
9:46 am
Reading the past two days of comments, it’s becoming clear that many of the constant posters here are getting un-nerved. And just as clear, their Romney campaign recriminations on Nov 7 will exceed anything the other side ever considered saying about the guy.
bu2
September 24th, 2012
10:25 am
We only have problems if President Obama gets relected.
There was a far worse version of the same type of recession in Texas in the 80s. It took only 3 years to get back to normal without a trillion dollar stimulus. Obama doesn’t understand why we are in a recession, let alone how to get out of it. Different policies will get the economy growing again, instead of policies based on the idea that entrepeneurs don’t build their business.
W with the wars and a lack of control of Congress’s other spending and Obama have put us in a debt hole. It will require some higher taxes to get out of. But the only way to truly deal with it is to grow the economy. It will take time, but we can get there. Reagan had a huge deficit, but we gradually grew out of it and actually had a surplus during one of the Clinton years. With Obama, he was talking about $51 billion for high speed rail, just oblivious to the debt issues. Fortunately, the tea party shut that down.
Obama will bankrupt us with Obamacare if reelected, in addition to ruining the best health care in the world. He is just a financial illiterate. He thinks you can just lower what you pay the doctors without an impact. Republicans really need to win the Senate as well to shut down the damage that Obamacare will do. Health care costs are a problem, but if you get tort reform, you can drive massive costs out of the system. However, plaintiff lawyers are the biggest financiers of the Democratic party. As for medicare and social security, Obama just refuses to acknowledge a problem. Social security could be solved pretty easily if we don’t wait a long time, but the Democrats seem intent on bankrupting it by demagoging any change. I suspect they want to turn it into another welfare system rather than something all Americans take part in. The middle class will not get benefits.
Iran doesn’t have to be a world wide crisis. At some point we or the Israelis will have to blow up their billions of $s of investments. They have already damaged their oil industry so they aren’t as important on the world market as they once were. Obama seems determined to put it off until they already have a bomb. They are already supporting terrorism against us everywhere. It won’t get a lot worse, unless we fail to act. Now they think we will refuse to do anything, so they continue to act with impunity. We have to understand they are not led by sane people with normal human values. Obama has the Carteresque naivety.
bluecoat
September 24th, 2012
10:34 am
Wonder if Linda is the cook or the picker.Any frost on those apples this am?
DawgDad
September 24th, 2012
11:44 am
“Is America in trouble no matter who wins the presidency? Of course we are.
“the presidential campaigns take turns making mistakes” Really? This is self-serving media puffery, nothing more. Who judges mistakes? The VOTERS, not the media.
As for the economy and debt, if we continue to allow the US Treasury to be an open piggybank for business and politicians, over-leveraged as it is, this country has no future. The role of government must shrink. I am not optimistic; there is far too much corrpution and greed. You only have to look at the demonization of the Tea Party from both major parties to understand we are far and long over the fiscal cliff.
Iran and the Middle East: This is not an “us vs. them” situation. There are many “sides”, factions, and interests in the Middle East. Israel, Iran, Gulf States, Nations, Royal families, rulers, armies, religious extremists, general and displaced populations, external influences in the West and East. What is clear is there are any number of forces who do not respect Israel, each other, and life in general. Allowing nuclear proliferation in the region will eventually blow up – something and someone. The safe bet is they’ll blow up Israelis and Americans.
yuzeyurbrane
September 24th, 2012
11:44 am
Linda @ 2:33 am–glad we give each other a good laugh. The world needs more laughter. Also, pleased to see that you say you have taken me up on my challenge to post on Jay’s blog. Help me out though. I checked his blog for the time frame you said you posted and could not find your post. Could you help me out by pinpointing the topic of his blog and what page your post is on? Thanks.
independent thinker
September 24th, 2012
8:22 pm
Linda- If you are self employed and pay for your own insurance how do you feel about the moochers and illegals getting free hospital care due to Reagan while those insured pay for it?
How do you feel about the elderly getting unnecessary high priced drugs for free due to Bush needing votes despite fact there is no funding source?
Or Medicare Advantage passed by Busg wgich gives insurers healthy profits and free gym memberships for the elderly?
Joel Edge
September 25th, 2012
7:58 am
Probably so, Kyle. The seeds of our misery was begun during the Clinton years. When sending jobs overseas became the norm. The only thing that’s going to push jobs back to America is a massive disruption (war) overseas. Hate to see it, but it’s coming, thanks to the current administration.