Is America in trouble no matter who wins the presidency?
Last Friday, I spoke to a local chapter of the Optimist Club. This Friday, I’m going to make sure no one who reads my blog can possibly have any shred of optimism remaining.
Just kidding. Sort of.
In an election season in which the presidential campaigns take turns making mistakes, making one wonder if either candidate really wants to win this thing, Sean Trende at Real Clear Politics lays out a case that neither side should want to win.
It’s the third in a three-part series; the first two installments were an argument for why Barack Obama will be re-elected, and an argument for why Mitt Romney will unseat him. The third piece boils down to: Be careful what you wish for.
Trende cites four factors that, at this point in time, suggest the winner of this election will see his party (or, in Romney’s case, himself) get rocked in the 2014 midterms and 2016 presidential election.
1. The economy. After reviewing the way we have not sprung back from the most recent recession the way we have from previous downturns, Trende notes:
Now consider that the average post-war business cycle lasts about six years from trough to trough. We hit our last trough in mid-2009, which means we should be due for another recession in the next few years.
We could easily begin to contract before we have fully recovered from the last recession. There are already signs that slowdowns in Europe and China are spilling over to our shores. This is probably too late to affect Obama’s re-election chances, but if it turns into a full-blown recession, it would greatly impact 2014 (when 11 Democrats are facing re-election in states that went for George W. Bush).
2. Debt. Here, Trende writes:
The current CBO projection assumes that we will add $3 trillion in debt over the next decade. But the reality is actually much, much worse than that. This assumes that we go off the famous “fiscal cliff” in December and allow all of the Bush tax cuts to expire, allow the full force of the alternative minimum tax to kick in, allow all of the spending cuts agreed to earlier this Congress to kick in, and greatly slash money paid to Medicare providers. Needless to say, if people see their taxes raised, their doctors stop accepting them for care, and we go into a recession, none of this will be popular.
If we assume Congress won’t allow this to occur, then we are looking at the CBO’s “alternate scenario.” It involves an additional $11 trillion in debt over the next few decades.
Even this latter scenario, he notes, is dependent on CBO’s rosy economic growth projections coming true — even though the economy has consistently underperformed CBO forecasts in recent years.
3. Health care. Trende notes that Obamacare is set to get cranked up in earnest in 2014. He imagines two scenarios:
If Obamacare doesn’t work — if seniors really suffer as a result of the benefit cuts to Medicare; if more people get thrown off their employer-sponsored insurance than expected; if insurers get put out of business because people opt to pay the tax rather than get insurance — it will not be a pretty political situation for Democrats.
Even if it works well, there will be problems. Unlike Medicare and Social Security, Obamacare creates obvious winners and losers. We then get to issues of salience: If people who are tossed onto the exchanges are angrier than people who are no longer denied care for pre-existing conditions are happy, there is a political problem for Democrats. If seniors strongly perceive the cuts to Medicare Advantage, but quickly forget about the “donut hole” being closed, there is a political problem for Democrats. There are dozens of such examples. Maybe they cancel each other out, but I wouldn’t bet the proverbial farm on it.
As for Republicans, Trende only maps out a scenario in which a President Romney and Congress repeal the law but don’t replace it with other reforms. Personally, I don’t think that’s the most realistic GOP scenario. But either way, he is probably right that Democrats will claim any shortcomings would have been better under Obamacare and will swing that club against Republicans early and often.
4. Iran. This, Trende says, doesn’t require a lot of theorizing:
In the next few years, one of two things will happen. Either Iran will develop a nuclear weapon, or Israel and the United States will forcibly stop Iran from developing a nuclear weapon.
No American president wants to be the one who oversees the former. And the disruptions that could ensue from the latter would be massive, especially in combination with any of the other factors listed above. Add in the continued difficulties we face in the region in general (as we saw last week), and the problems there are similarly insurmountable.
***
What does all this mean? Is Trende right that either Democrats or Republicans could “win by losing”?
From a purely electoral-politics perspective, maybe. Of course, that would mean neither man is up to the task of creating better outcomes to these challenges. Which is a pretty depressing thought.
But is it a correct thought? Should we really believe America is doomed for the next four years no matter what happens in November?
Let’s hear your arguments why Obama or Romney would avoid disaster on any or all of these four issues. Think of it as a Poll Position without the poll. Just answer in the thread below.
– By Kyle Wingfield
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798 comments Add your comment
fair and balanced
September 23rd, 2012
8:04 pm
Excellent article – No Obama bashing . Could it be Mr. Wingfield has woken up and seen which way the wind is blowing in this election?
Other forseeable issues:
1. Mideast war involving Israel and Syria or Egypt. Syria is getting ready to use chemical weapons as the opposition gets stronger. Israel has said it will act if chemical weapons are used or fall in the wrong hands.There are continuous terrorist attacks in the Sinai attempting to provoke Israel to attack.
American peacekeeping forces in Sinai have been attacked as well.If Iran jumps into conflict in Syria , there is always a possibility of US involvement.
2. Total devaluation of the dollar as a reserve currency used by the world.What is a dollar truly worth today? What if China calls the IOUS it holds due ?
3. Increased terrorist attacks like we saw in Libya;Mr. Al Zwahiri appears to be the mastermind.
4 Obama gets a majority in the House and Senate and passes huge tax increases and gets economy back on track with rehiring of over a million government workers laid off due to the recession,
5. Romney wins and lets the neocons suck us into a war with Iran and a war with China or renewed conflict with North Korea and
6. Radical Muslims takeover in Pakistan and get control of the bomb
.All distinct possibilities after the election.
Either candidate will have to show outstanding leadership in handling any one of the above. Either way the economy is not going to take off with either candidate after the election without massive government spending of some sort..
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
September 23rd, 2012
8:08 pm
Massive government spending is not real growth.
Massive government spending is the problem.
Vote American.
cc
September 23rd, 2012
8:09 pm
“that is, that the video that no one except Obama believes triggered the protests & violence in the Middle East”
I don’t think even Obama believes that. I think he knew from the beginning that he had made a big-time error, but he can’t admit it. Obama has stated that he erred in thinking that Washington “could be fixed from the inside”, called on his sycophants for aid and stated that he needed four more years. This is only an election ploy. I can’t recall that he has ever admitted making a mistake; perhaps some of you can point out to me where he has?
cc
September 23rd, 2012
8:29 pm
fair and balanced@8:04 pm:
“Either way the economy is not going to take off with either candidate after the election without massive government spending of some sort..”
From where will the money come? Increased taxation will only prolong the misery, and we certainly don’t need to add to the massive debt owed now. The indebtedness is hurting our economy, and hurting it badly. If we had access to the money Obama has spent paying off his friends and contributors plus the money he has used to pay for union votes, we would not have added as much to the debt.
The very first thing you do when you find yourself in a hole is to quit digging!
Linda
September 23rd, 2012
8:30 pm
I double-dog dare you conservatives to get off this blog & go to blogs on newspapers in the swing states & start with my post on 9/22 @ 1:58 PM & hammer home the actual facts. Not one liberal has challenged my numbers, which I spent a lot of time coming up with from just plain old facts. They are the truth. Let’s make a difference! Time is running out! Let’s take our country back from these progressives. I didn’t even know what a progressive was 3 yrs. ago, but I’m now convinced that Obama & his cohorts are intentionally destroying America.
Just Saying..
September 23rd, 2012
8:33 pm
Is Kyle laying the foundation here for, “Aw, we didn’t Really want to win that silly ole ‘lection anyway”?
mike
September 23rd, 2012
8:37 pm
What do you know the far right wing nutcase cheering section is all here again tonight.
It’s all Obama’s fault! Even the soft-serve machine going out at the Dairy Queen is his fault.
I agree with you that you should take the country back from “these progressives.” And, you certainly will have your chance come 2024. Good luck!
Just Saying..
September 23rd, 2012
8:38 pm
“conservatives to get off this blog & go to blogs on newspapers in the swing states & start with my post on 9/22 @ 1:58 PM & hammer home the actual facts.”
Uh, Linda, that might take, like, actual effort.
Safer here in a comfy blog where there’s no consequences for endless playground name-calling..
Just Saying..
September 23rd, 2012
8:40 pm
“Time is running out! ”
Yo sur nuff right bout dat, Miss Linda…
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
September 23rd, 2012
8:44 pm
2024
—————-
Remember when Obozo was accidentally elected and you libtards thought it was going to be a golden era of Democrat dominance? How long did it take for Obozo to screw up so bad that Americans turned out in force to vote against his liberal fascism and he lost the House? That golden age didn’t last too long, now did it?
mike
September 23rd, 2012
8:45 pm
“Natl. Debt on 1/20/01: $5.7 T
Natl. Debt on 1/19/09: $10.6 T
Natl. Debt on 9/22/12: $16 T
Bush added $4.9 T in 8 yrs.
Obama has added $5.4 & in 3 yrs., 8 mts.
When Obama adds another $300 B, he will have added more to the natl. debt in 3 yrs. & about 10 or 11 mts. than the first 42 presidents did in 223 years.
Part of the Bush debt was $700 B for TARP, paid back under Obama, except for Govt. Motors, etc.”–Linda
It’s interesting to know Linda that the Republicans quadrupled the debt before Clinton took office and doubled it after he took office.
George W. Bush left President Barack Obama with a federal budget already running a $1.2 Trillion deficit.
Every single effort President Barack Obama has made to lower the deficit has been met with obstruction by the Senate Republicans.
He tried to let the Bush tax expire, but was held hostage over the extension of the unemployment benefits. Your argument is disingenuous to say the least.
Oblama
September 23rd, 2012
8:50 pm
Yes of course the U.S. is on course for a depression no matter who is in office. That is why I am buying up gold and have plans to escape to a private island.
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
September 23rd, 2012
8:52 pm
Every single effort [Obozo] has made to lower the deficit has been met with obstruction by the Senate Republicans.
——————-
Name one effort by Obozo to cut spending that was obstructed by Senate Republicans.
Obozo promised during the 2008 campaign to end Our President Bush’s tax cuts even before they expired. He had the House and Senate for two years. Why didn’t he get it done?
Just Saying..
September 23rd, 2012
8:58 pm
“That is why I am buying up gold and have plans to escape to a private island.”
Who answers 9-1-1 there?
Pirates?
mike
September 23rd, 2012
9:00 pm
George W. Bush inherited an economy running a $250 billion (a quarter of a $1Trillion) surplus.
If he had not done anything, the entire country’s debt would have been paid off by the end of his second term. In other words, the country would have been debt-free.
Instead, he passed two tax cuts, started two unfunded wars, passed an unfunded Medicare Part D drug benefit, and killed the economy.
As a result, not only was the debt not paid off, it was doubled. And, as a result of his policies, the country was running a $1.2 Trillion deficit. The same $1.2 Trillion that President Barack Obama inherited.
The same $1.2 Trillion deficit that Republicans have blocked him at every turn from reducing.
So crow all you want about President Barack Obama increasing the deficit. It’s just a lie.
But, what the heck, if it makes you feel better, go ahead.
mike
September 23rd, 2012
9:04 pm
“Name one effort by Obozo to cut spending that was obstructed by Senate Republicans.”-Lil Barry
You will recall Lil Barry that the Bush tax cuts were set to expire in 2010 (I may be wrong about that) but the Senate Republicans blocked that expiration so that President Barack Obama could extend unemployment benefits to 99 weeks.
Typical Republicans.
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
September 23rd, 2012
9:04 pm
So crow all you want about President Barack Obama increasing the deficit. It’s just a lie.
———————–
So Obozo was powerless to “change” anything to address the deficit? Did he reduce the spending on Medicare Part D, for example? No, he increased it.
Obozo’s had four years. Everything is worse in that time…deficits, debt, credit rating, respect in the Middle East, number of folks on the dole, household incomes, housing prices.
You show all the signs of cult membership. Leave the bubble. Embrace facts.
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
September 23rd, 2012
9:06 pm
mike, you can’t come up with even one example of spending cuts Obozo wanted that Republicans obstructed?
And you can’t explain why Obozo didn’t end the tax cuts even before they expired, while he had Democrats in control of both houses, with a filibuster proof majority?
You have nothing.
mike
September 23rd, 2012
9:12 pm
“Did he reduce the spending on Medicare Part D, for example? No, he increased it.”-Lil Barry
Lil Barry, I would appreciate you posting a link to back up that statement.
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
September 23rd, 2012
9:13 pm
During his presidential campaign, Barack Obama promised to repeal President George W. Bush’s tax cuts for the wealthy ahead of their scheduled expiration
http://www.cbsnews.com/2100-250_162-4631105.html
——————
He had a filibuster proof majority. What happened?
Iowa St Fair
September 23rd, 2012
9:13 pm
“And here you probably thought I wouldn’t modify my proposal simply because the idea came from a lefty.”
Actually I didn’t spend a second as to what you thought or would do, merely pointing out your willful right wing talking point ignorance on the issue.
But thanks for responding.
cc
September 23rd, 2012
9:14 pm
Barry@9:06 pm:
I think you’re talking reduction in spending and mike is talking increasing taxes as the method for reducing the deficit.
mike
September 23rd, 2012
9:15 pm
Lil Barry, you are conveniently forgetting about the Simpson-Bowles spending cuts and tax increases coming in January 2013.
Let’s just see who squawks the loudest. I’d be willing to bet that the Republicans renege on the defense cuts. Wanna bet?
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
September 23rd, 2012
9:16 pm
Increased spending on Medicare Part D:
http://www.intellectualtakeout.org/library/chart-graph/medicare-part-d-projected-spending
Iowa St Fair
September 23rd, 2012
9:18 pm
Lil Barry actually thinks Romney is going to win and if he recites and regurgitates all the Drudge, Fox and radio punditry that he is capable of doing it will make it so.
The Doobie Bros wrote a song about people like you back in the day
“What a FOOL believes”
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
September 23rd, 2012
9:18 pm
mike: you are conveniently forgetting about the Simpson-Bowles spending cuts and tax increases coming in January 2013
——————–
Now you’re just smoking crack. Simpson Bowles has been dead for some time–Obozo killed it.
mike
September 23rd, 2012
9:22 pm
Lil Barry, Medicare Part D costs have gone up every year since enacted. President Barack Obama did nothing to increase spending on Medicare Part D.
Your post says nothing about President Barack Obama increasing spending on Medicare Part D.
Linda
September 23rd, 2012
9:24 pm
mike@last night &/or earlier today, whenever that was, You are looking for a job. Is that right? Did you ever think that maybe, just maybe that your political views are keeping you from getting a job? Obama has bashed success, from CEOs to “fat cats” to “corporate jet owners, etc. We would NOT hire an Obama- or Democratic-thinking potential employee who thinks that the free market is wrong. We would not hire someone who thinks we’re not paying our “fair share “& that we didn’t build our businesses on our own. Do you not realize that businesses are anti-Obama, in every sense of the word?
As employers, we have always screened every potential employee as to pro- or anti-employer. We have & would NEVER hire anti-employer employees. That means Democrats/liberals.
mike (with a small m), you & no one like you are not welcome in our businesses because of your political views, your blame games, your claim to being a victim & your anti-business consensus.
Best of luck to you in changing your attitude.
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
September 23rd, 2012
9:24 pm
The chart I linked to shows the spending going which direction under Obozo? Up!
Are you feigning stupidity, or does it come naturally?
If Medicare Part D spending was so heinous, why didn’t Obozo do something about it? He likes to bash Our President Bush about it, and then goes on and spends more on it.
mike
September 23rd, 2012
9:25 pm
“Now you’re just smoking crack. Simpson Bowles has been dead for some time–Obozo killed it.”-Lil Barry
First, Tiberius and now you. Kyle, is it just me or is this a personal insult. Never mind, I guess it’s OK for your “regulars” to post personal insults. I just wonder how many “days” I would have gotten for posting the same comment.
To answer your question, Lil Barry, you may have heard of the so-called “fiscal cliff” coming in January? Look it up.
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
September 23rd, 2012
9:26 pm
mike, you’re not very bright, you’re poorly informed, and I’m not going to spend any more time helping you understand the difference between up and down. Enjoy Spongebob.
mike
September 23rd, 2012
9:29 pm
“As employers, we have always screened every potential employee as to pro- or anti-employer. We have & would NEVER hire anti-employer employees. That means Democrats/liberals.”-Linda
Boy, now there’s a good one.
“Are you now or have you ever been a member of the Democratic Party?”
If so, get lost! What a joke!
Linda, you should have been a comedienne.
mike
September 23rd, 2012
9:32 pm
It’s the Lil Barry personal insult “hit parade!”
Don’t worry, though, Kyle won’t punish his “own.” I love personal insults.
It just shows that you’ve lost and have nothing else.
Gravy Train
September 23rd, 2012
9:32 pm
Folks, like it or not, it’s over. There is only a same handful of people that will come on here and actually promote Romney. They know it’s over. In all of my daily driving in the past month, I have seen exactly one Romney sticker and exactly one yard sign. Where is the love for Willard? Finally, Georgia is on track to be a Blue State again.
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
September 23rd, 2012
9:34 pm
We used to have a guy with an Obozo bumper sticker. Like most liberals, he didn’t get along very well with folks who were actually trying to accomplish things and we had to let him go. To say there were no tears shed would be juuuust a bit of an understatement.
mike
September 23rd, 2012
9:35 pm
“Are you now or have you ever been a member of the Democratic Party?”
That’s got kind of a McCarthy ring to it doesn’t it?
@@
September 23rd, 2012
9:36 pm
MarkV:
But that is not a proof that PWA created a long-term problem
Allow me to clarify…I said it was one among a handful.
Social Security was never intended to be permanent, and yet, here we are with an unsustainable program that too many people have come to rely on.
A HUGE mistake, that one.
I’m outta here.
James
September 23rd, 2012
9:39 pm
Not much positive. Not much to look foward to. No jobs for college grads .Military lay offs coming..Unemployment up in most states.
I will vote for the Mormon and not the Moron.
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
September 23rd, 2012
9:40 pm
If you’re relying on Social Security, you must not have much self-respect. What kind of standard of living are you planning that can be paid for with such a meager amount?
Sad.
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
September 23rd, 2012
9:45 pm
Advice to college students: Learn a foreign language so you’ll be able to take a job in another country that is less hostile to business and less anxious to get their hands on your earnings.
Gravy Train
September 23rd, 2012
9:54 pm
Good luck finding that mythical country that Lil’ Brain is talking about. Unless you can afford your own compound and a small army.
Gravy Train
September 23rd, 2012
9:59 pm
Wait that sounds an awful lot like Joseph Smith. I’m pretty sure he was killed by his own people after he killed three of them. Apparently a “modern prophet” can be a murdering, adulterous blasphemer. True story, look it up. I forgot the part where he also abandoned his family.
mike
September 23rd, 2012
9:59 pm
Social Security currently has a surplus of nearly $3 Trillion (yes, that’s with a T).
Social Security is projected to be solvent at least until 2025.
Not one red cent of our deficit or debt is caused by Social Security or Medicare.
The maximum monthly benefit for 2012 is $2,513 or $30,156. Not a very large amount, but if your home is paid for you can live fairly well on that. Especially since it is not taxed (if you don’t have any other income).
Gravy Train
September 23rd, 2012
10:00 pm
He was also guilty of high treason. When he learned of the charges, he fled.
Linda
September 23rd, 2012
10:03 pm
mike(with a small m) (for no apparent reason) @ 8:37, 8:45, 9:00, 9:04, 9:12, 9:15 & 9:22, Math isn’t your or the Democrats’ forte.
You said that “…every single effort Pres. B. O. has made to lower the deficit has been met with obstruction by the Senate Republicans.” Then why was his budget defeated in the Democratic-controlled Senate 99-0? Don’t you agree with every member of the Senate that Obama’s budget was asinine?
Don’t you remember that the House & Senate were Democratically controlled for the 1st 2 yrs. of the Obama adm., which means he could pass whatever he wanted to?
The Obama Adm.has said for 4 years that they wanted to extend the Bush tax cuts on the middle class & to let them expire on the top two tax brackets. Yeah, right. If Obama & the Dems. wanted to extend the Bush tax cuts on the middle class & let them expire on the top two tax brackets, they would have done so while they still had total control of the House & Senate, prior to the 2010 elections. Obama & the Dems. WANT the tax cuts on the lower & middle class to expire & increase.
You are too naive to be blogging here. MSNBC is children’s hour & less entertaining than cartoons.
Hillbilly D
September 23rd, 2012
10:03 pm
Social Security was never intended to be permanent,
I think you are mistaken about that.
http://www.ssa.gov/history/briefhistory3.html
bluecoat
September 23rd, 2012
10:07 pm
Lots of self respecting people depend on social security.I suppose you and Romney don’t realize that.
mike
September 23rd, 2012
10:09 pm
Unemployment benefits: not until Bush tax cuts pass, Senate GOP says
The lame-duck Congress, mired in a partisan clash over taxes and spending and preoccupied with a battle over extending the Bush tax cuts, refused Wednesday to restore federal financing of extended unemployment benefits, which had lapsed overnight.
The inaction means the imminent loss of unemployment compensation for some 800,000 out-of-work Americans, with nearly 2 million long-term unemployed expected to be affected by Jan. 1, according to the Labor Department.
http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2010/1201/Unemployment-benefits-not-until-Bush-tax-cuts-pass-Senate-GOP-says
Linda, how can I make it any plainer than this? What more do you want?
Gravy Train
September 23rd, 2012
10:09 pm
In the Mormon faith, if you are not willing to attest to the “truthfulness” of the Book of Mormon and the validity of Joseph Smith being on the same level as God, you do not get to go to heaven. You will go to a holding area where you will be given one more chance to convert. If you refuse, you go to Hell. If you accept, you will join the ranks of the service class in Heaven. At the other end of the spectrum, if you convert now and accumulate enough points on Earth, you can earn the ultimate prize of being the god of your very own planet. That is what Willard believes and that’s why he donates all of that money to the cult. He needs mad points to be a god. This is the man that has been nominated by the plutocracy of the GOP. I profess to the truthfulness of this post.
Iowa St Fair
September 23rd, 2012
10:13 pm
If you’re relying on Social Security, you must not have much self-respect. What kind of standard of living are you planning that can be paid for with such a meager amount?
Sad
__________________
Look up the stats. More people than you think and man vote Republican