Is America in trouble no matter who wins the presidency?
Last Friday, I spoke to a local chapter of the Optimist Club. This Friday, I’m going to make sure no one who reads my blog can possibly have any shred of optimism remaining.
Just kidding. Sort of.
In an election season in which the presidential campaigns take turns making mistakes, making one wonder if either candidate really wants to win this thing, Sean Trende at Real Clear Politics lays out a case that neither side should want to win.
It’s the third in a three-part series; the first two installments were an argument for why Barack Obama will be re-elected, and an argument for why Mitt Romney will unseat him. The third piece boils down to: Be careful what you wish for.
Trende cites four factors that, at this point in time, suggest the winner of this election will see his party (or, in Romney’s case, himself) get rocked in the 2014 midterms and 2016 presidential election.
1. The economy. After reviewing the way we have not sprung back from the most recent recession the way we have from previous downturns, Trende notes:
Now consider that the average post-war business cycle lasts about six years from trough to trough. We hit our last trough in mid-2009, which means we should be due for another recession in the next few years.
We could easily begin to contract before we have fully recovered from the last recession. There are already signs that slowdowns in Europe and China are spilling over to our shores. This is probably too late to affect Obama’s re-election chances, but if it turns into a full-blown recession, it would greatly impact 2014 (when 11 Democrats are facing re-election in states that went for George W. Bush).
2. Debt. Here, Trende writes:
The current CBO projection assumes that we will add $3 trillion in debt over the next decade. But the reality is actually much, much worse than that. This assumes that we go off the famous “fiscal cliff” in December and allow all of the Bush tax cuts to expire, allow the full force of the alternative minimum tax to kick in, allow all of the spending cuts agreed to earlier this Congress to kick in, and greatly slash money paid to Medicare providers. Needless to say, if people see their taxes raised, their doctors stop accepting them for care, and we go into a recession, none of this will be popular.
If we assume Congress won’t allow this to occur, then we are looking at the CBO’s “alternate scenario.” It involves an additional $11 trillion in debt over the next few decades.
Even this latter scenario, he notes, is dependent on CBO’s rosy economic growth projections coming true — even though the economy has consistently underperformed CBO forecasts in recent years.
3. Health care. Trende notes that Obamacare is set to get cranked up in earnest in 2014. He imagines two scenarios:
If Obamacare doesn’t work — if seniors really suffer as a result of the benefit cuts to Medicare; if more people get thrown off their employer-sponsored insurance than expected; if insurers get put out of business because people opt to pay the tax rather than get insurance — it will not be a pretty political situation for Democrats.
Even if it works well, there will be problems. Unlike Medicare and Social Security, Obamacare creates obvious winners and losers. We then get to issues of salience: If people who are tossed onto the exchanges are angrier than people who are no longer denied care for pre-existing conditions are happy, there is a political problem for Democrats. If seniors strongly perceive the cuts to Medicare Advantage, but quickly forget about the “donut hole” being closed, there is a political problem for Democrats. There are dozens of such examples. Maybe they cancel each other out, but I wouldn’t bet the proverbial farm on it.
As for Republicans, Trende only maps out a scenario in which a President Romney and Congress repeal the law but don’t replace it with other reforms. Personally, I don’t think that’s the most realistic GOP scenario. But either way, he is probably right that Democrats will claim any shortcomings would have been better under Obamacare and will swing that club against Republicans early and often.
4. Iran. This, Trende says, doesn’t require a lot of theorizing:
In the next few years, one of two things will happen. Either Iran will develop a nuclear weapon, or Israel and the United States will forcibly stop Iran from developing a nuclear weapon.
No American president wants to be the one who oversees the former. And the disruptions that could ensue from the latter would be massive, especially in combination with any of the other factors listed above. Add in the continued difficulties we face in the region in general (as we saw last week), and the problems there are similarly insurmountable.
***
What does all this mean? Is Trende right that either Democrats or Republicans could “win by losing”?
From a purely electoral-politics perspective, maybe. Of course, that would mean neither man is up to the task of creating better outcomes to these challenges. Which is a pretty depressing thought.
But is it a correct thought? Should we really believe America is doomed for the next four years no matter what happens in November?
Let’s hear your arguments why Obama or Romney would avoid disaster on any or all of these four issues. Think of it as a Poll Position without the poll. Just answer in the thread below.
– By Kyle Wingfield
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798 comments Add your comment
mike
September 22nd, 2012
10:49 pm
“Next thing you know, you’ll be buggering little boys to get your jollys.”–Tiberius
Kyle, maybe you can help me out here. Would this qualify as a personal insult?
How about buggering? Is that a permissible word? What does that mean?
Does it have anything to do with p*ck*r?
Is that just some British slang? What does bugger mean?
I need your help, Kyle.
mike
September 22nd, 2012
10:53 pm
Who would have thought it. Wikipedia has the definition of bugger:
Bugger is a slang word originally used to describe either anal intercourse by a man with a man or woman, or sexual intercourse by either a man or a woman with an animal.
I guess if Tiberius can use that word, then all of us can use it. What do you think, Kyle?
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
September 22nd, 2012
10:54 pm
“Would this qualify as a personal insult?”
No, a psychiatric observation.
mike
September 22nd, 2012
10:56 pm
Is Tiberius revealing something about himself to us?
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
September 22nd, 2012
10:56 pm
I merely thought it would be better to treat you as the 4 year-old you act like on this blog, mike.
“Where’s W” is not a debating point, especially as it has been answered time and time again.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
September 22nd, 2012
10:57 pm
“Is Tiberius revealing something about himself to us?”
Yes. That I am trained in psychiatric observation.
mike
September 22nd, 2012
10:59 pm
“Yes. That I am trained in psychiatric observation.”–Tiberius
Then you have a degree in Psychology?
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
September 22nd, 2012
11:01 pm
‘Our internal polling, like Gallup and Rasmussen, indicates that this is dead even right now. The media is emotionally invested in the Obama campaign and is cherry-picking data to fit the narrative they have decided on in advance. Let’s just say that reports of the death of the Romney campaign have been greatly exaggerated.’
Meanwhile, the death of America under obozo’s rule hasn’t been “greatly exaggerated.”
Just look around you.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
September 22nd, 2012
11:01 pm
You get nothing more from me on a personal basis, mike. I have been cyber-stalked by you liberal nut-jobs before.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
September 22nd, 2012
11:03 pm
“Our internal polling, like Gallup and Rasmussen, indicates that this is dead even right now. ”
Are we to assume this statement came from the Romney campaign, IR/YW?
mike
September 22nd, 2012
11:04 pm
You made the statement that you were trained in psychiatric observation. I didn’t.
mike
September 22nd, 2012
11:09 pm
“Our internal polling, like Gallup and Rasmussen, indicates that this is dead even right now.”–I Report
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
I think it’s wonderful that you all comfort yourself with statements like that.
Unfortunately, reality is going to wash over you like a Tsunami on November 7. But hey! keep on believing! It’s far and away better than giving up.
RW-(the original)
September 22nd, 2012
11:13 pm
I’ll talk to you losers on November 7…
Is Nader even bothering to officially run this time? If not Georgia won’t bother to count that vote.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
September 22nd, 2012
11:25 pm
Anybody who relies on a map of incomplete polling data and claims it is an accurate representation of a future result is not playing with a full deck.
HDB
September 23rd, 2012
12:19 am
Linda
September 22nd, 2012
10:17 am
Note the question you asked: When are rights voted on? If you noted, laws denying rights have been voted upon persistently (Jim Crow as the primary example)…and have been deemed unconstitutional. Since the 14th Amendment guarantees EQUAL PROTECTION….the right to MARRY (which is a legal contract by law) is protected.
“”Gays are not discriminated against because they have EQUAL rights, the same rights as all citizens. They want MORE rights than all other citizens, rights that NONE of us have.”"
The Constitution recognizes a marriage performed in one state must be recognized in ALL 50! Since gay marriage is LEGAL in seven states and Dc…and by TREATY…whatever country that recognizes gay marriage…..that marriage….and the advantages derived from that contract…..must be recognized. All gay people want are the same things that straight people desire from the marriage contract: the right of inheritance, the right to survivor benefits….government recognition of the marital contract………
States’ rights can NOT supercede the US Constitution……………….
“We DO discriminate in the US. Kids can’t drive, drink or get married.”
Not quite true! Children can get married as young as 10 (with parental consent in Texas –that’s state law!)….or 13 in Georgia (same application!)……a person is not considered an adult until one reaches the age of majority (18) save in certain judicial situations. A child can request to be emancipated…which would give him LEGAL ADULT STATUS in certain situations. If said emancipated child petitions the court, adult rights can be granted…like driving……
People need to READ the law and the Constitution……………….
The Constitution also provides for states’ rights, slowly but surely being taken away by the progressives in the fed. govt.
Gravy Train
September 23rd, 2012
2:41 am
Mike, you are hilarious! Keep it coming, brother!
Gravy Train
September 23rd, 2012
2:48 am
So now we know Tibi is an old white troglodyte Mormon who is also a closeted Log Cabin Republican! Tibi, you should contact Willard and volunteer to speak in his behalf at a public presser. You can be his token of diversity! BA-ZING!
Gravy Train
September 23rd, 2012
2:51 am
It would even better if you had a little more diversity, perhaps one quarter of Cherokee blood?
Gravy Train
September 23rd, 2012
2:55 am
Where’s Ed McMahon with a HI-YOOOOOOE?
Gravy Train
September 23rd, 2012
2:57 am
I’m sorry for insulting you, Cherokee. You didn’t deserve that. It’s just that nobody wants to claim Tibi.
Gravy Train
September 23rd, 2012
3:01 am
One last one, the closer, if you will.
So that explains his “tail pulling” fetish!
Thank you, ditto-heads! You’ve been a great audience! Good night!
Gravy Train
September 23rd, 2012
3:02 am
FORWARD! (With or without you.)
cc
September 23rd, 2012
3:23 am
Gravy Train@3:02 am:
Drunk again?
@@
September 23rd, 2012
7:20 am
Whoa! This can’t be good.
US State Dept. blasts CNN report on Stevens’ diary
In a blistering statement, Reines called CNN’s actions “indefensible.”
The channel said in the story online that it took “newsworthy tips” from Stevens’ diary and confirmed them with other sources. Citing an unidentified source “familiar with Stevens’ thinking,” CNN said that the ambassador was concerned about security threats in Benghazi and a “rise in Islamic extremism.”
Stevens feared he was on an al-Qaeda hit list?
What’s indefensible is that our consulate was left defenseless.
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
September 23rd, 2012
7:31 am
Yes, who could have predicted violence in Middle Eastern muslim countries on 9/11?
Obozo: A dereliction of duty.
@@
September 23rd, 2012
7:45 am
An old article on point.
Why Democrats, including me, are abandoning Obama
President Obama is said to abhor the daily machinations of Washington politics. He refuses to miss more than two dinners a week with his daughters. He prefers not to meet with senators, congressmen or significant donors, yet he still expects to reap the benefits normally provided by those circumstances.
I’m of the opinion that Obama has abandonment issues stemming from his childhood. He’s been overindulged.
Sam sat on the couch, carefully arranging his toy farm animals in their storage box. Mom told Sam she needed to run an errand and asked Sam to put on his shoes, shoes which were five feet away and in plain sight. His shoes had Velcro closures and putting them on was old hat for Sam.
Sam acted as if he hadn’t heard Mom. She knew he had heard, however, and again asked him with a more forceful voice to put his shoes on. For his part, Sam drooped helplessly and looked as if he hadn’t a bone in his body. “What do I do now?” Mom asked herself. First she tried encouragement. “C’mon Sam. You know how to do this.” Then cajoling. “We won’t be gone long. P-l-e-a-s-e put your shoes on. C’mon, Sam.” She was conscious of a hint of whine in her voice.
Still nothing from Sam. Mom found herself getting mad, but, wishing to avoid an out and out confrontation with Sam, retrieved her son’s shoes and plunked them down on the couch next to him. “Please put your shoes on,” she said with a scowl and a little louder voice.
(No response.)
“Just put your foot in a shoe,” she said with separate emphasis on each and every word.
(Still no response.)
Worn out, Mom grabbed the shoes, jerked his feet into her lap, and put his shoes on him. Sammy wore an expression on his face which said, “Ha! I won! See. I am the boss.” Mom’s expression was one of exasperation and disappointment.
“Don’t do for him what he can do for himself. Your life with him will not be so great if he gets the message he can manipulate you to do what he knows very well how to do for himself. If you overwork on his behalf, he will ‘under-work’. He may not learn how to be clear about communicating what he wants and needs and will expect others to read his mind and do things for him without having to ask. You’re likely to see more and more helplessness to get you to do things for him.–educarer.com
That’d be fun to re-write using Barack and his big-boy pants.
Obama needs to be kicked out of the house.
@@
September 23rd, 2012
8:01 am
Del mentioned that people may be saying one thing and doing another.
Maybe they’re saying one thing out of political correctness, while planning to vote entirely differently.
OR…they’ll vote for him because he’s pitiful. Now THAT would be racist!!!!!
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
September 23rd, 2012
8:42 am
The difference between Democrats and Republicans:
Record numbers of folks dependent on government would be an embarrassment to Republicans. To Democrats, it’s just a good start.
Vote American.
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
September 23rd, 2012
9:08 am
“Obama needs to be kicked out of the house.”
——————-
Too bad we can’t discipline him like one would discipline a dog that took a dump inside the house. Obozo’s taken a whole bunch of dumps inside America’s house–deficits, debt, dependency, credit rating.
Are we going to clean them up, or are we going to just let them sit there on the floor?
Don’t put up with this s****.
Vote American.
@@
September 23rd, 2012
9:22 am
LBB:
Yeah, but which rolled up newspaper are we gonna smack him with?
Too many of them have served as his poop paper. Maybe the WSJ?
(ISH)
@@
September 23rd, 2012
9:32 am
Make that “poop pad”.
schnirt
JamVet
September 23rd, 2012
9:44 am
You Christians sure have a lot of anger on a Sunday morning.
cc
September 23rd, 2012
9:58 am
“In a blistering statement, Reines called CNN’s actions “indefensible.”
I’ll just bet that they did! Obama doesn’t need to be held accountable for any other foreign problem occurring on his watch, particularly this close to an election. This information taken from his personal journal should not have offended Steven’s family, and probably is information that they wanted publicized.
Looks as if CNN may be making an effort to get back into the real news business . . .
@@
September 23rd, 2012
9:58 am
AmVet:
You Christians sure have a lot of anger on a Sunday morning.
None coming from this blogger, bub.
Since your arrival on these blogs, you’ve been projecting anger 24/7. It’s all you’ve got…all you’ll ever have. It drives you.
JamVet
September 23rd, 2012
10:18 am
An angry response about not being angry?
Bub? Is that like buddy or pal?
You are a hoot.
Now go look for that love for one another that John wrote about and pray for some redemption…
cc
September 23rd, 2012
10:48 am
LBB and @@:
My little dog demands an apology. She resents the comparison.
Carolyn
September 23rd, 2012
10:56 am
Thanks, Kyle for sharing Trende’s analysis. Another important view of the fix we are in is outlined in “Aftershock” by David Wedemeyer. We are not in a classic business cycle downturn but something new — a multiple bubble crisis involving not just housing and credit, but stock market, government debt and dollar bubbles. The current policies of of pumping more money into the economy is just going to make the explosion worse. Obama’s sense of grievance and lack of understanding will certainly make things worse but Romney will face tremendous opposition shoujd he win. It’s not good but better to know than whistle past the graveyard.
Iowa St Fair
September 23rd, 2012
11:00 am
“I’m certainly not a professional pollster but I can’t help but wonder if many Americans polled are reluctant to open up about their real personal concerns regarding the direction of our country and most importantly Obama. Maybe they’re saying one thing out of political correctness, while planning to vote entirely differently. I’m not predicting a Romney landslide but I wouldn’t bet against it.”
__________________________
What a weak excuse. So all these people being polled by different pollster are scared to say they are voting Romney?
What is Pew or Gallup going to do if they say Romney?
Kill them………
That was post was just stupid and shows desperation.
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
September 23rd, 2012
11:00 am
Well, has Obama admitted yet that it was a terror attack in Libya? Everyone in his regime has admitted that fact, but he doesn’t seem able to admit that he screwed up, and failed to provide Stevens with any security. Seems he still prefers his fantasy about the video, to the truth.
This along with Fort Hood massacre is the second terrorist attack on America.
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
September 23rd, 2012
11:05 am
Iowa State Fair
You just can’t help but question the polls after the 2010 elections. Remember, the MSM folks came on at 7:00, with that ever present smirk on their faces, that showed the exit polls showed things going their way. Along about 11 they began saying, well we are going to have use raw vote totals as our exit polls appear to be wrong. Voters lied to the exit pollers and the GOP did much better than the MSM had hoped at the beginning of the coverage.
I’m expecting much the same this year. Surprise late in the evening. Shock in the morning.
Iowa St Fair
September 23rd, 2012
11:06 am
Rafe
Wrong. 2010 polls indicated that Republicans were going to win many many races
Try again
Iowa St Fair
September 23rd, 2012
11:09 am
Rafe
Get with the facts man. The facts
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other
/2010_generic_congressional_vote-2171.html
Now what were you saying?
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
September 23rd, 2012
11:10 am
Carolyn
Nice post, it is going to be very rough no matter who is presiding. We stand a better chance of surviving the rough patch with someone in charge that will make sound decisions and take responsibility for his decisions, rather than one who pitches a pity party, whines, and blames others.
Iowa St Fair
September 23rd, 2012
11:13 am
Rafe
Your favorite pundits convinced you of the same exact thing in 08. We know what happened, right?
Do you know that Obama is further ahead today than he was at this time in 08?
Just the facts Rafe, just the facts.
Save your excuses for when you call into Boortz and Hanitty.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/obama_vs_romney_compared_to_obama_vs_mccain.html
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
September 23rd, 2012
11:16 am
Iowa
No you are wrong, you are talking about general pre election polls, I’m talking about exit polls. Google “exit polls wrong” and here is an article.
Last night the first draft of the exit polls were wrong. Again. This is actually a pretty common occurrence — they were off in 2010, 2004, and 2000. Each time leaning toward the Democrats. And don’t forget the 2008 New Hampshire Democratic exit poll–those were also off.
The media and liberals (but I repeat myself) are talking up the fact that Obama is ahead of Romney by seven points, according to the exit poll. It looks as though the numbers have been re-weighted so they no longer skew toward the Democrats. So, what should we make of this?
http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/what-exit-polls_646716.html
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
September 23rd, 2012
11:18 am
I forgot the exit polls totally flumoxed the MSM in WI in 2012. CNN got so rattled at the outcome, they had to switch to covering the Queen’s Jubilee, as if anyone cared about that.
Iowa St Fair
September 23rd, 2012
11:23 am
Rafe
That generic article means nothing. It didn’t show who conducted the polls, how many people were surveyed, etc
So you keep on doing what you are doing now when you allowed yourself to be brainwashed in 08.
Worked out well for you, huh?
Also, the betting odds are great if you put your money down on Romney. How much have you wagered?
Exactly. You have not nor will you wager a dime, because inside you have a good feeling who is not going to win…….. no matter what you post on these blogs
killerj
September 23rd, 2012
11:54 am
“Make America # 1″,quit playing politics abroad where we have no business,bring back world business by offering perks for jobs,make trade equal,small government means more money in your pocket,limit time for politicians to 10 years service to insure new blood for better ideal,s to go with the times. Remember it,s “WE THE PEOPLE”who tell elected officials what to do,not them telling you what your going to do,work on what we do best,our infrastructure needs a major overhaul.
cc
September 23rd, 2012
12:36 pm
Rafe:
It’s like arguing with a stump, isn’t it? It won’t matter what source you use, your adversary will deny its qualifications. If that doesn’t work, he/she/it will change the scenario. Come to think about it, you’d probably be better off with the stump . . .
@@
September 23rd, 2012
12:43 pm
AmVet:
You are a hoot.
Sharing the love….and you, AmVet, are “a hooter”.
schnirt
Anyhoo, today in church, our very liberal pastor….Obama supporter (no longer)….shared this:
God’s math adds and multiplies. Satan’s math subtracts and divides.
Kewl!