Is America in trouble no matter who wins the presidency?
Last Friday, I spoke to a local chapter of the Optimist Club. This Friday, I’m going to make sure no one who reads my blog can possibly have any shred of optimism remaining.
Just kidding. Sort of.
In an election season in which the presidential campaigns take turns making mistakes, making one wonder if either candidate really wants to win this thing, Sean Trende at Real Clear Politics lays out a case that neither side should want to win.
It’s the third in a three-part series; the first two installments were an argument for why Barack Obama will be re-elected, and an argument for why Mitt Romney will unseat him. The third piece boils down to: Be careful what you wish for.
Trende cites four factors that, at this point in time, suggest the winner of this election will see his party (or, in Romney’s case, himself) get rocked in the 2014 midterms and 2016 presidential election.
1. The economy. After reviewing the way we have not sprung back from the most recent recession the way we have from previous downturns, Trende notes:
Now consider that the average post-war business cycle lasts about six years from trough to trough. We hit our last trough in mid-2009, which means we should be due for another recession in the next few years.
We could easily begin to contract before we have fully recovered from the last recession. There are already signs that slowdowns in Europe and China are spilling over to our shores. This is probably too late to affect Obama’s re-election chances, but if it turns into a full-blown recession, it would greatly impact 2014 (when 11 Democrats are facing re-election in states that went for George W. Bush).
2. Debt. Here, Trende writes:
The current CBO projection assumes that we will add $3 trillion in debt over the next decade. But the reality is actually much, much worse than that. This assumes that we go off the famous “fiscal cliff” in December and allow all of the Bush tax cuts to expire, allow the full force of the alternative minimum tax to kick in, allow all of the spending cuts agreed to earlier this Congress to kick in, and greatly slash money paid to Medicare providers. Needless to say, if people see their taxes raised, their doctors stop accepting them for care, and we go into a recession, none of this will be popular.
If we assume Congress won’t allow this to occur, then we are looking at the CBO’s “alternate scenario.” It involves an additional $11 trillion in debt over the next few decades.
Even this latter scenario, he notes, is dependent on CBO’s rosy economic growth projections coming true — even though the economy has consistently underperformed CBO forecasts in recent years.
3. Health care. Trende notes that Obamacare is set to get cranked up in earnest in 2014. He imagines two scenarios:
If Obamacare doesn’t work — if seniors really suffer as a result of the benefit cuts to Medicare; if more people get thrown off their employer-sponsored insurance than expected; if insurers get put out of business because people opt to pay the tax rather than get insurance — it will not be a pretty political situation for Democrats.
Even if it works well, there will be problems. Unlike Medicare and Social Security, Obamacare creates obvious winners and losers. We then get to issues of salience: If people who are tossed onto the exchanges are angrier than people who are no longer denied care for pre-existing conditions are happy, there is a political problem for Democrats. If seniors strongly perceive the cuts to Medicare Advantage, but quickly forget about the “donut hole” being closed, there is a political problem for Democrats. There are dozens of such examples. Maybe they cancel each other out, but I wouldn’t bet the proverbial farm on it.
As for Republicans, Trende only maps out a scenario in which a President Romney and Congress repeal the law but don’t replace it with other reforms. Personally, I don’t think that’s the most realistic GOP scenario. But either way, he is probably right that Democrats will claim any shortcomings would have been better under Obamacare and will swing that club against Republicans early and often.
4. Iran. This, Trende says, doesn’t require a lot of theorizing:
In the next few years, one of two things will happen. Either Iran will develop a nuclear weapon, or Israel and the United States will forcibly stop Iran from developing a nuclear weapon.
No American president wants to be the one who oversees the former. And the disruptions that could ensue from the latter would be massive, especially in combination with any of the other factors listed above. Add in the continued difficulties we face in the region in general (as we saw last week), and the problems there are similarly insurmountable.
***
What does all this mean? Is Trende right that either Democrats or Republicans could “win by losing”?
From a purely electoral-politics perspective, maybe. Of course, that would mean neither man is up to the task of creating better outcomes to these challenges. Which is a pretty depressing thought.
But is it a correct thought? Should we really believe America is doomed for the next four years no matter what happens in November?
Let’s hear your arguments why Obama or Romney would avoid disaster on any or all of these four issues. Think of it as a Poll Position without the poll. Just answer in the thread below.
– By Kyle Wingfield
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798 comments Add your comment
cc
September 22nd, 2012
6:20 pm
Lil’ Barry Bailout @5:45 pm:
“Has President Romney ever been found by the IRS to have evaded paying the taxes he owes?”
No, unlike about half of the people Obama appointed . . .
David R. Boag, DDS
September 22nd, 2012
6:23 pm
@@,
“No need to expand some already inefficient government bureaucracy when…
we can do it–YES WE CAN!”
One more thing you guys CAN do is if you have a large procedure like a surgery or something, it is sometimes amazing how many things that the negotiated fee that your insco and the hospital agree upon for SOME procedures is actually HIGHER than if you paid cash for it. If your on it, you can go in and ask for a list of how much they would charge you for each item/procedure if you paid them cash. A colleague of mine whose wife has a chronic disease that requires yearly surgeries to manage does exactly this. The doctors are happy to take cash in most cases rather than fight the insco for the check that may or may not come, and the savings, according to him, are substantial.
Just FYI.
cc
September 22nd, 2012
6:26 pm
Are we (the taxpayers) paying for Gravy Train’s gravy train? Inquiring minds want to know? That is the first thing that comes to mind when I see that screen name . . .
saywhat?
September 22nd, 2012
6:31 pm
RW-(the original)
September 22nd, 2012
5:43 pm
“You confuse me with someone who ever thinks libs can be silent.”
I was responding to a false assertion from lil bruno. I am not confusing YOU with anybody. You inserted yourself into a coversation that had nothing to do with you, and failed to even read up first to see what it was about. You have confused me with somebody who cares what you think.
“It’s more my experience that there’s always an incessant whining from them and all that changes is the subject.”
And now you have changed the subject. Somebody needs to alert Alanis Morissette. Maybe she can substitute that for “rain on your wedding day”.
@@
September 22nd, 2012
6:35 pm
Doc:
I’m all too aware. Negotiating with doctors is a favorite pastime of mine.
Linda’s right about using your real name. There are some folks on here who will track you down. They’ve done it to me…no face to face, mind you.
I’ll just leave it at that.
saywhat?
September 22nd, 2012
6:38 pm
Great story at 6:10 @@. I’m, sure it would have been impossible- absolutely impossible- for a doctor to check off the same thing on a paper form and have a clerk bill it exactly the same way. Its like Obama was in the room at the computer with the doctor practically forcing him at gunpoint to commit fraud. Its probably Obama’s fault you have hemorrhoids. Maybe you need a tax cut.
Del
September 22nd, 2012
6:39 pm
” That is the first thing that comes to mind when I see that screen name . . .”
cc, The few occasions I’ve read his/her posts I came away convinced that this one is a Bookman blog far-left moron not worthy of very much attention.
@@
September 22nd, 2012
6:39 pm
saywhat?:
You can thank the NYTimes for the story. I just shared it…didn’t write it.
@@
September 22nd, 2012
6:40 pm
Saywhat?:
The only hemmorhoid I’ve ever experienced is YOU!
schnirt
RW-(the original)
September 22nd, 2012
6:41 pm
How does one insert themselves into a private conversation on a public blog? Especially one not hosted by either party.
/and I wouldn’t have known the significance of the dates if I I hadn’t read up on the origin of said conversation…
saywhat?
September 22nd, 2012
6:48 pm
Rw- reading fail on your part.I never said it was a private conversation. If you did read up, you suffered reading comprehension failure as well. I’ll let Dr. Phil explain – “Its not ABOUT you.”
cc
September 22nd, 2012
6:52 pm
Del @6:39 pm:
No doubt that you are correct!
saywhat?
September 22nd, 2012
6:52 pm
Time to go. Here’s a tip-Don’t eat any snickers bars you find in the kiddie pool.
RW-(the original)
September 22nd, 2012
7:01 pm
They’re so cute when they pout
Linda
September 22nd, 2012
7:10 pm
I hope Dr. Boag likes gravy on his office doors. He can always borrow my dog, who eats gravy but not doors, unless they are attached to a moving vehicle, at which time he drools them into opaqueness.
@@
September 22nd, 2012
7:13 pm
Time to go.
Good.
Linda
September 22nd, 2012
7:46 pm
@@ @7:13, Ditto to Echo. Reminds me of my hard-of-hearing grandmother who we all adored. Say what? Echo? She watched soaps, but she knew they were not real.
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
September 22nd, 2012
7:47 pm
Blubbering does seem to be a liberal art form.
Linda
September 22nd, 2012
8:06 pm
cc@6:52, You really hurt my dog’s feelings. I commented to you last night @10:13 & you never acknowledged. He’s still under the piano, pouting, acting like a liberal, which he is not. BTW, where do liberals who don’t have pianos go to pout?
Linda
September 22nd, 2012
8:09 pm
I Report@7:47, Isn’t blubbering somehow associated with whales & fat?
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
September 22nd, 2012
8:26 pm
Is America in trouble no matter who wins the presidency?
———————–
$6 trillion deeper in trouble than four years ago.
Thanks, Democrats, for the unprecedented and un-American spending you’ve committed during your disastrous regime.
Del
September 22nd, 2012
8:31 pm
I’m certainly not a professional pollster but I can’t help but wonder if many Americans polled are reluctant to open up about their real personal concerns regarding the direction of our country and most importantly Obama. Maybe they’re saying one thing out of political correctness, while planning to vote entirely differently. I’m not predicting a Romney landslide but I wouldn’t bet against it.
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
September 22nd, 2012
8:34 pm
As if Obozo’s $6 trillion in new debt isn’t disastrous enough, his fascist takeover of health care, which he said would cost $0.9 trillion over ten years, is now estimated to cost $2.6 trillion over the same period.
Obozo: Fascist. Liar.
Obozo supporters: Idiots or chumps–you tell me.
http://www.theblaze.com/stories/estimated-cost-of-obamacare-is-now-2-6-trillion-nearly-1-7-trillion-more-than-obama-promised/
@@
September 22nd, 2012
9:03 pm
“Gov. Romney is a very skilled debater,” said Obama campaign manager Jim Messina. His boss, by contrast, is long and windy, “so clearly the governor has the advantage.”
Well, they didn’t use those words exactly.
His campaign aides volunteer that Mr. Obama’s answers are typically long-winded—they say they are working on that.
I’m in agreement with his aides.
The president responded in 2010 to a question from a North Carolina woman who believed she was overtaxed with an answer that ran on for more than 17 minutes.
I remember it well. The Yammerer-in-Chief.
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
peachtreecityfreeloader
September 22nd, 2012
9:03 pm
lil boo boo, romney will never be president. take that to the bank
cc
September 22nd, 2012
9:16 pm
Linda @10:13 pm last night and 8:00 pm tonight:
“You really hurt my dog’s feelings”
Please apologize to him and tell him I would never knowingly hurt his feelings for the world!
“where do liberals who don’t have pianos go to pout?”
Bookman’s blog, but entirely too many of them drift over here . . .
“The only dog worth anything is “it” who retrieves the newspaper in the mornings, rain or shine, global warming or not”
Got the humor and the point, but disagree only in one sense; dogs give unconditional love and loyalty. People who exhibit those qualities are rare indeed, but treasured forever if fond!
cc
September 22nd, 2012
9:23 pm
Last word should read “found”. Sorry for the typo!
Linda
September 22nd, 2012
9:24 pm
Del@8:32, Bingo! That’s what I’ve been saying. We blog under assumed names. What’s the likelihood that conservatives would tell an anonymous caller, who claims to be a pollster, that he or she plans to vote against Obama, in light of the fact that gun & ammo sales are at record levels? Why give a reason to be audited or hauled into court for making a video?
The polls are skewed.
Hillbilly D
September 22nd, 2012
9:24 pm
dogs give unconditional love and loyalty.
A friend of mine’s job as a kid was slopping the hogs. He said he loved it. No matter how bad a day he’d had, them hogs were always glad to see him.
cc
September 22nd, 2012
9:26 pm
peachtreecityfreeloader @9:03 pm:
You’re already ‘overdrawn’ at the bank . . .
cc
September 22nd, 2012
9:31 pm
“No matter how bad a day he’d had, them hogs were always glad to see him.”
That is EXACTLY how Obama feels when he goes to an Obama rally (worship service), and “them hogs” are always glad to see him.
Linda
September 22nd, 2012
9:47 pm
cc@9:16, His feelings are cured. He exited from under the piano but would have never climbed on the top of the piano, due to the house rules & the pecking order he respects.The top of the piano is a place for cats.
If he was a liberal & retreated to the cult blog, his handle would be T-Bone, not to be confused with @@’s dog’s handle of Road Kill or Italian Lover.
mike
September 22nd, 2012
9:49 pm
I see the far right wing cheering section is all here. Forget Hope and Change. Try Hope and Pray.
Actually pigs (hogs) are some of the most intelligent creatures on the planet. Maybe they know who to vote for.
Oh, by the way, calling Obama Fascist is like calling Hitler a liberal. It just takes all types.
But, look, don’t take take it too hard, there’s always 2024 to look forward to. It’ll be here sooner than you think.
mike
September 22nd, 2012
9:54 pm
Romney needs a “foot extractor.” He’s stuck his foot in his mouth so many times, he’s in a real predicament.
But it not his fault really, he didn’t have “Bush’s brain” to help him.
Oh, I almost forgot. Where is old “W?” You don’t hear nothing from him anymore.
I would think he would be touting all the successes of his presidency for the world to hear.
cc
September 22nd, 2012
10:02 pm
Linda@9:47:
I’m happy that he is cured! Of course the top of the piano is reserved for cats, they choose high places. I’m also sure that your dog has much more class than to be caught on Bookman’s blog.
Road Kill?
mike
September 22nd, 2012
10:03 pm
And the strangest thing is, you never see any of those “W” bumper stickers any more. I guess all those poor folk had to get out there with a razor blade and slice those things (not my choice of words, but the one that Kyle won’t remove) off their cars in the middle of the night.
Likewise for Romney stickers. I can’t recall seeing a single Romney sticker in recent memory.
At this time in 2004, “W” stickers were everywhere. What could possibly explain it?
mike
September 22nd, 2012
10:12 pm
This test of the emergency truth broadcasting service has ended. Return to your normal activities of liberal bashing, misogyny, self-aggrandizing.
Old Timer
September 22nd, 2012
10:14 pm
Who ever wins will have a hard time–the system is so screwed up now it will take eons to fix. Romney will try and give us a fresh face. Obama will continue to spend and and create stories putting us in a bigger hole with the world accomplishing his goal of dumbing down America as we used to know it.
cc
September 22nd, 2012
10:14 pm
mike @9:49 pm:
The “Hope” turned into “hype” and “Change” turned into “chump”, which accurately describes Hussein’s supporters. I would say that you are correct in assessing the intelligence level of Hussein’s supporters at that of pigs. He isn’t a fascist, but he is a would-be communist whose admiration for Alinsky knows no bounds. In all likelihood I will not be here in 2024, and should Obama be re-elected, you’ll probably wish you weren’t here either.
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
September 22nd, 2012
10:22 pm
I Report@7:47, Isn’t blubbering somehow associated with whales & fat?
Linda – Did you really need to drag michelle obama into this?
JamVet
September 22nd, 2012
10:23 pm
Is America in trouble no matter who wins the presidency?
LOL!!!
Like I’ve been saying for months.
Even the cons don’t like their candidate.
And the more rabid, the more the displeasure with this non-severely non-conservative!
Talk about dysfunctional…
cc
September 22nd, 2012
10:24 pm
Good night, fellow conservatives, and with the words of Brother Dave Gardner, “Rejoice Dear Hearts” that you aren’t among the mind-numbed zombie liberals!
Linda
September 22nd, 2012
10:25 pm
I was thinking about responding to mike (not capitalized for a reason), but decided he was not worthy of intellectual debate that he could understand or decipher within the next 24 hours. Hope & change in 2012 is now hopeless & helpless. Pitiful!
Arguing with liberals is about as productive as talking with plants.
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
September 22nd, 2012
10:31 pm
Compared to obozo, Romney is the second coming of George Washington, in case you were wondering how the “Cons” really feel about their candidate.
cc
September 22nd, 2012
10:31 pm
Linda@10:25 pm:
Why must you drag plants down to the level of liberals? Surely plants have done no wrong to you that would be deserving of such treatment?
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
September 22nd, 2012
10:33 pm
AmVet.
Unfit to vote.
mike
September 22nd, 2012
10:36 pm
Since they closed the plant down and shipped my job to China, coming on this blog and posting is the only thing that gives me any real pleasure anymore.
Other than the life-size mannequins of “W” and Romney that I keep down in the barn. Taking a good, long stick to both of them for 15 or 20 minutes a day really relieves the tension.
Of course, I’ve already been through about 10 of each.
JamVet
September 22nd, 2012
10:37 pm
Back to back whiners.
Too funny.
I’ll talk to you losers on November 7…
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
September 22nd, 2012
10:41 pm
You gotta love the Campaigner-in-Chief chiding Congress for leaving town so that they can campaign for re-election.
You just can’t make this stuff up . . .
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
September 22nd, 2012
10:42 pm
“Taking a good, long stick to both of them for 15 or 20 minutes a day really relieves the tension.”
Next thing you know, you’ll be buggering little boys to get your jollys.
It’s the next step in crazy.