Is America in trouble no matter who wins the presidency?
Last Friday, I spoke to a local chapter of the Optimist Club. This Friday, I’m going to make sure no one who reads my blog can possibly have any shred of optimism remaining.
Just kidding. Sort of.
In an election season in which the presidential campaigns take turns making mistakes, making one wonder if either candidate really wants to win this thing, Sean Trende at Real Clear Politics lays out a case that neither side should want to win.
It’s the third in a three-part series; the first two installments were an argument for why Barack Obama will be re-elected, and an argument for why Mitt Romney will unseat him. The third piece boils down to: Be careful what you wish for.
Trende cites four factors that, at this point in time, suggest the winner of this election will see his party (or, in Romney’s case, himself) get rocked in the 2014 midterms and 2016 presidential election.
1. The economy. After reviewing the way we have not sprung back from the most recent recession the way we have from previous downturns, Trende notes:
Now consider that the average post-war business cycle lasts about six years from trough to trough. We hit our last trough in mid-2009, which means we should be due for another recession in the next few years.
We could easily begin to contract before we have fully recovered from the last recession. There are already signs that slowdowns in Europe and China are spilling over to our shores. This is probably too late to affect Obama’s re-election chances, but if it turns into a full-blown recession, it would greatly impact 2014 (when 11 Democrats are facing re-election in states that went for George W. Bush).
2. Debt. Here, Trende writes:
The current CBO projection assumes that we will add $3 trillion in debt over the next decade. But the reality is actually much, much worse than that. This assumes that we go off the famous “fiscal cliff” in December and allow all of the Bush tax cuts to expire, allow the full force of the alternative minimum tax to kick in, allow all of the spending cuts agreed to earlier this Congress to kick in, and greatly slash money paid to Medicare providers. Needless to say, if people see their taxes raised, their doctors stop accepting them for care, and we go into a recession, none of this will be popular.
If we assume Congress won’t allow this to occur, then we are looking at the CBO’s “alternate scenario.” It involves an additional $11 trillion in debt over the next few decades.
Even this latter scenario, he notes, is dependent on CBO’s rosy economic growth projections coming true — even though the economy has consistently underperformed CBO forecasts in recent years.
3. Health care. Trende notes that Obamacare is set to get cranked up in earnest in 2014. He imagines two scenarios:
If Obamacare doesn’t work — if seniors really suffer as a result of the benefit cuts to Medicare; if more people get thrown off their employer-sponsored insurance than expected; if insurers get put out of business because people opt to pay the tax rather than get insurance — it will not be a pretty political situation for Democrats.
Even if it works well, there will be problems. Unlike Medicare and Social Security, Obamacare creates obvious winners and losers. We then get to issues of salience: If people who are tossed onto the exchanges are angrier than people who are no longer denied care for pre-existing conditions are happy, there is a political problem for Democrats. If seniors strongly perceive the cuts to Medicare Advantage, but quickly forget about the “donut hole” being closed, there is a political problem for Democrats. There are dozens of such examples. Maybe they cancel each other out, but I wouldn’t bet the proverbial farm on it.
As for Republicans, Trende only maps out a scenario in which a President Romney and Congress repeal the law but don’t replace it with other reforms. Personally, I don’t think that’s the most realistic GOP scenario. But either way, he is probably right that Democrats will claim any shortcomings would have been better under Obamacare and will swing that club against Republicans early and often.
4. Iran. This, Trende says, doesn’t require a lot of theorizing:
In the next few years, one of two things will happen. Either Iran will develop a nuclear weapon, or Israel and the United States will forcibly stop Iran from developing a nuclear weapon.
No American president wants to be the one who oversees the former. And the disruptions that could ensue from the latter would be massive, especially in combination with any of the other factors listed above. Add in the continued difficulties we face in the region in general (as we saw last week), and the problems there are similarly insurmountable.
***
What does all this mean? Is Trende right that either Democrats or Republicans could “win by losing”?
From a purely electoral-politics perspective, maybe. Of course, that would mean neither man is up to the task of creating better outcomes to these challenges. Which is a pretty depressing thought.
But is it a correct thought? Should we really believe America is doomed for the next four years no matter what happens in November?
Let’s hear your arguments why Obama or Romney would avoid disaster on any or all of these four issues. Think of it as a Poll Position without the poll. Just answer in the thread below.
– By Kyle Wingfield
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798 comments Add your comment
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
September 22nd, 2012
9:53 am
That’s just it, freeloader…Americans want to live in America, not Obozo’s Handout Nation.
MarkV
September 22nd, 2012
9:55 am
“Picking apart someone’s grammar or writing, while never stating your own opinion, is EVERYTHING you write about, MarkV.”
Poor Tiberius, in addition to everything else he suffers from an attention deficit disorder or a pathological loss of memory. He does not even remember what he responded to yesterday.
David R. Boag, DDS
September 22nd, 2012
9:57 am
Today’s employment news (funny how it is relegated to page 4 of the AJC…not like it’s important or anything):
Jobless rates climb in 26 states. Rates fell in 12. unchanged in 12. Georgia’s rate unchanged.
Rates rose in these battleground states: Michigan (although despite this it seems they don’t mind), Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, New Hampshire, and Iowa. Ohio was unchanged. So was Virginia and Florida.
Colorado was the ONLY swing state whose unemployment rate went down in August, from 8.3 to 8.2%.
Is this the “recovery?”
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
September 22nd, 2012
10:02 am
If this is recovery, I’m wondering why Obozo’s daddy Ben has to pump $480 billion per year of funny money into the economy.
Linda
September 22nd, 2012
10:17 am
HDB@11:47, You are the one who first mentioned constitutional amendments.
When are rights voted on? The Bill of RIGHTS are indeed constitutional amendments. We do not “GET” our rights from the court. We receive our rights from God, the Constitution & laws passed by Congress. The courts merely interpret the Constitution & the laws.
We DO discriminate in the US. Kids can’t drive, drink or get married. Plurality is discriminated against.
Blacks & women WERE discriminated against because they did not have EQUAL rights, the same rights as all citizens.
Gays are not discriminated against because they have EQUAL rights, the same rights as all citizens. They want MORE rights than all other citizens, rights that NONE of us have.
The Constitution also provides for states’ rights, slowly but surely being taken away by the progressives in the fed. govt.
Linda
September 22nd, 2012
10:20 am
HDB@1201, Key words: federal appeals court. We have a court SYSTEM. Let’s see what the SCOTUS has to say.
JamVet
September 22nd, 2012
10:28 am
Good morning, ladies, gentlemen and Republicans!
OK, pop quiz time.
What percentage of Americans are NOT OK with unlimited money from corporations given to the outside groups that run the
filthad campaigns that pollute our airwaves?No idea?
85% of Democrats, 81% of Republicans and 78% of independents.
Corporations are NOT people, my friends.
Your corporate stooge candidate in unfit to lead…
Numbers-R-US
September 22nd, 2012
10:29 am
George of the jungle, the BushWhacker is a total failure. A trillion dollar unpaid war debt. Unfunded tax cuts for the wealthiest. The loss of three thousand Americans in the trade center attack. The loss of thousands of US soldiers in a needless war in Iraq. The Great Recession. The Wall Street bailout. The loss of 8 million jobs due to his recession. An unfunded precsription drug company benefit. And then the Republicans run on a so-called jobs platfrom in 2010 and create ZERO jobs.
Our President Obama and the Democratic Party are the only ones trying to help we the people and it is in spite of the RepubliCons and their determination to destroy this great nation for their own benefit.
Numbers-R-US
September 22nd, 2012
10:36 am
Mitt’s moochers live where? There!
1. Mississippi
Total Returns: 1,283,495
Returns With Income Tax Liability: 712,035
Returns With No Income Tax Liability: 571,460
Nonpayers: 44.5%
2. Georgia
Total Returns: 4,589,611
Returns With Income Tax Liability: 2,639,561
Returns With No Income Tax Liability: 1,950,050
Nonpayers: 42.5%
3. Alabama
Total Returns: 2,102,251
Returns With Income Tax Liability: 1,254,979
Returns With No Income Tax Liability: 847,272
Nonpayers: 40.3%
4. Florida
Total Returns: 9,631,252
Returns With Income Tax Liability: 5,879,430
Returns With No Income Tax Liability: 3,751,822
Nonpayers: 39%
5. Arkansas
Total Returns: 1,224,333
Returns With Income Tax Liability: 748,945
Returns With No Income Tax Liability: 475,388
Nonpayers: 38.8%
Linda
September 22nd, 2012
10:41 am
It costs $145 for a PERSON to become a corporation in Georgia. That PERSON still has the same rights at the end of the day as HE or SHE had before HE or SHE became incorporated.
The Supremes have ruled.
Numbers-R-US
September 22nd, 2012
10:44 am
The Tax Policy Center estimates that 4,000 households with incomes over $1 million ended up with zero federal income tax liability in 2011. Another 14,000 made between $500,000 and $1 million.
Uh Oh! I think Mitt owes those 18,000 moochers an apology. They’re not your ordinary non-income tax paying moochers. They’re the job creating moochers. Those are the ones that RepublicCons want to help not pay any income taxes. They’re not “those people” that Mitt was referring to in his top secret for wealthy eyes only candid speech.
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
September 22nd, 2012
10:44 am
Corporations are NOT people, my friends.
—————–
Corporations are made up of people, just like unions.
If you don’t like the First Amendment, work to change it. Don’t just sit there whining.
yuzeyurbrane
September 22nd, 2012
10:48 am
Linda–you have interesting view re how rights are created. The Consititution and its Amendments are indeed the basis for rights. But the Supreme Court has always interpreted what the Constitution means in specific circumstances. The world was a different place in the 1780’s and the Constitution was meant by the Founding Fathers to be a dynamic document, flexible enough to change through the times with interpretation by the Courts as well as through Amendments. For example, the right to bear arms in a well-regulated militia. Does that include weapons that did not even exist in fact or in imagination in 1780? Does a well-regulated militia mean the National Guard or does it include the misc. militias that have arisen in recent years? Does the right to privacy include a woman’s right to prevent state required probes into her body? Now how do you decide that. Is it solely up to Congress? The Supreme Court? The Executive? Or some combo? That is what Constitutional law is all about and it does not fix into the neat little boxes you propose.
JamVet
September 22nd, 2012
10:54 am
BB, quit whining at me.
The news get worse for the
“conservatives”corporatists, when the income goes over $100K per year, the percentage of Americans opposed to the mountains of dirty money puked up by BIG business to influence our elections goes up to 90%!Forget sovereignty for we the people, long live the American corporatocracy!
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
September 22nd, 2012
10:56 am
Long live the First Amendment. Let us hope libtards fail in their repeated attempts to deny it to people who aren’t like them (the “makers”).
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
September 22nd, 2012
11:01 am
How’s that Obozo/Clinton apology commercial in Pakistan working out?
Obozo: Weak.
JamVet
September 22nd, 2012
11:11 am
BB, you are in a very small minority compared to real Republicans.
How does that make you feel?
Especially knowing that those GOPers in the producer class vehemently disagree with you.
But George Soros and his countless other huge money Democratic buddies and their shadow proxies love you…
saywhat?
September 22nd, 2012
11:19 am
“Is America in trouble no matter who wins the presidency?”
______________________________________________________________
12 years ago and 8 years ago the answer to that question was “no”. Unfortunately, the wrong choices were made, and America did get into trouble, the biggest trouble economically since th great depression.
4 years ago the answer to that question was “yes”. Things were going to suck, and did, no matter who won. But thankfully, the right choice was made, and for that reason alone, the answer to the question today is now “no” again.
If Romney were to win (which thank God he won’t), the answer four years from now would again be “yes”.
RW-(the original)
September 22nd, 2012
11:30 am
Funny how the question was about corporations AND unions, but by the time the parrots of Think Progress got to it the union part got dropped.
Stevie Ray...Clowns to my Left and Jokers to my Right here I am....
September 22nd, 2012
11:32 am
Couldn’t agree more with this columns focal point. Congress will not change.. if Romney wins, the obstructionists will simply switch sides. If Obama wins, I hope he commits to a number he will limit the increase of current $16T debt to…..
Neither have the courage to attack the most important issue which is private money…after the election, our interests are immediately subordinated to self serving presidents et al and their money needs…Obama has been horrible talking a lovely game but delivering zippo..Romney will be equally impotent unless he can shed the far right religious and tea party zealotry and hang out in the middle so something actually gets done…pigs outta my butt..
Stevie Ray...Clowns to my Left and Jokers to my Right here I am....
September 22nd, 2012
11:38 am
SAYWHAT,
I can see no evidence that anything will change, particularly if BO is re-elected. The trends are becoming less and less favorable…in a second term, people will run out of patience with this “no my fault” crap..many of us are getting sick of hearing his BS..just words…His total lack of leadership skills is becoming more and more examined…
Romney…I see him having no chance to generally improve the economy but I do see him at least putting out the fires in the Middle East that are a direct result of Obama’s lack of substance on this issue…Too bad that particular issue is probably # 4 or 5 on my list…
Nothing will change..
peachtreecityfreeloader
September 22nd, 2012
11:43 am
lil barry, your ticket will be free. in hater class. mogadishu has very limited government so you will fit in very nicely there.
buulu
JamVet
September 22nd, 2012
11:46 am
Think Progress got to it the union part got dropped.
Nope, only idiots who speak for others do.
Labor unions are not people, my friend…
Linda
September 22nd, 2012
11:56 am
yuzey@10:48, No, “the Constitution was” NOT “meant by the Founding Fathers to be a dynamic document, flexible enough to change through the times with interpretation by the courts…”
It can only be changed by amendment.
The Constitution gives no authority to activists judges. Judges have discretion to interpret but not to CHANGE the Constitution. It gives no more authority or discretion to a liberal judge than to a conservative judge & no more to a judge in 1865 than to a judge in 1965. The Constitution does not EVOLVE.
If the USA had adhered to the Constitution as written over time, we would not owe a cent of debt. It’s purpose was to limit the powers of the fed. govt.
The right to LIFE (as well as liberty & happiness) from God trumps the right to privacy.
Stevie Ray...Clowns to my Left and Jokers to my Right here I am....
September 22nd, 2012
12:02 pm
JAMVET,
I’m confused…are you suggesting labor unions don’t make significant contributions to BO?
Regarding corporations, why is it that BO has taken more cash from wall street than any DEMS want to admit…so much for prosecution of those fat cats who “brought down the system” eh?
getalife
September 22nd, 2012
12:07 pm
‘TIME TO SHOW YOURS, HARRY’ drudgey.
Psssst, Reid won last cycle by beating the tea party con ingle.
RW-(the original)
September 22nd, 2012
12:07 pm
What percentage of Americans are NOT OK with unlimited money from corporations given to the outside groups that run the filth ad campaigns that pollute our airwaves?
There’s your quote, JV. Not a peep about unions and there’s a reason the pollster that came up with that didn’t separate the two when asking.
However the lake is 100 yards away and the day is a gift from God. Later!
getalife
September 22nd, 2012
12:11 pm
RW-(the original),
Both corporations and unions can donate unlimited bribes but unions can’t match corporation bribes..
Do you think it is time to stop focusing on the wealthy that need no help and start focusing on middle middle class jobs to replace the jobs outsourced by corporations?
David R. Boag, DDS
September 22nd, 2012
12:14 pm
Linda,
Mild correction:
“The right to LIFE (as well as liberty & THE PURSUIT OF happiness) from God trumps the right to privacy.
getalife
September 22nd, 2012
12:16 pm
“The right to LIFE (as well as liberty & THE PURSUIT OF happiness) from God trumps the right to privacy.”
Don’t tread on me!
JamVet
September 22nd, 2012
12:17 pm
I’m confused…are you suggesting labor unions don’t make significant contributions to BO?
You are apparently very confused.
I make no distinctions about eliminating the non-individual contributed money pumped into our elections, regardless of the source.
Regarding corporations, why is it that BO has taken more cash from wall street than…
Ask him. I voted against him. That being one of the major reasons.
…so much for prosecution of those fat cats who “brought down the system” eh?
ONLY for the soft-on-crime, look the other way types in both major political parties, including our corporate friendly prez…
But not me….
Linda
September 22nd, 2012
12:27 pm
David@12:14, Didn’t want to confuse a liberal.
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
September 22nd, 2012
12:32 pm
Do you think it is time to stop focusing on the wealthy that need no help and start focusing on middle middle class jobs to replace the jobs outsourced by corporations?
Ok, Getalife, you take extra money from the evil Rich and do what with it? Give us an outline of what you do with that money, that does not involve that money eventually returning to the Banks, the Corporations, and the rich.
Government can not create jobs, the only way the middle class grows and prospers is with a steady well paying job. The only way they find those jobs, is to free the corporations and the wealthy and incentivize them to do so. Everything else gov tries, is just patchwork, designed to temporarily help but eventually to fail.
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
September 22nd, 2012
12:43 pm
Obozo’s been in office nearly four years. Where are the jobs?
Bottom line: Your klown messiah is a failure.
snoqualmiefalls
September 22nd, 2012
12:49 pm
TBan 9/21, 5:25 pm post..”it’s the stupid electorate I’m worried about”.
That pretty much sums up anyone who disagrees with the TBan world view… you are stupid, don’t bother me with your stupid remarks, stupid, stupid.
I think we all get the picture now if we had not previously, a bitter individual, always endiing with pithy bitter remarks.. a sad way to go through life.
JamVet
September 22nd, 2012
12:54 pm
Where are the jobs?
40,000,000 of them have been lost or sent overseas since 1973.
(Or maybe that has only occurred since January 21, 2009!)
yuzeyurbrane
September 22nd, 2012
1:08 pm
Linda–you are going beyond the literal words of the Constitution. “Life, liberty and pursuit of happiness” are in the Declaration of Independence.
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
September 22nd, 2012
1:15 pm
The only thing that’s occurred since January 2009 is 43 months of 8-10% unemployment, an unprecedented level of failure.
Linda
September 22nd, 2012
1:23 pm
yuzey@1:08, Of course they are, but the God-given right to life trumps the govt.-given right to privacy. The right to life of the baby trumps the mother’s right to privacy.
Bruno
September 22nd, 2012
1:29 pm
Anyone but me notice the deafening silence coming from the Left regarding Romney’s tax returns?? Now that it was revealed that he paid the same rate as Obama over the past 20 years, it’s all of a sudden a non-issue.
peachtreecityfreeloader
September 22nd, 2012
1:30 pm
so by lil schwand barry reasoning, the governor of jawja has failed since 9.2% unemployment in your state. but he will vote for that failure next time round anyway.
you just got a ticket upgrade to burakumin class
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
September 22nd, 2012
1:38 pm
Since Jan 2009 we have had a 51% increase in our debt, bringing it to 16.1 T. Doesn’t bother The Mistake, he couldn’t even remember what the debt was on Jan 2009, and didn’t seem to know what it was now, when he appeared on Letterman the other night.
Bet he knew what his golf score was for every round played since May.
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
September 22nd, 2012
1:40 pm
Getalife, so, where is your plan to help the middle class? Do you have one thing you would do, other than spout the Dem talking points, about how we need to help the middle class.
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
September 22nd, 2012
1:43 pm
The Mistake knew what the debt was in 2007, when he said GW Bush was irresponsible and unpatriotic for running up such a huge debt. I agree with his statement, but it applies to him times 2.
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
September 22nd, 2012
1:45 pm
freeloader: so by lil schwand barry reasoning, the governor of jawja has failed since 9.2% unemployment in your state.
———
If it was just Georgia with an unemployment problem, you’d have a better argument. Unfortunately, Obozo’s unemployment problem is nationwide.
Obozo: A national failure of unprecedented magnitude.
Vote American.
Gravy Train
September 22nd, 2012
1:53 pm
Hey Boag, Why don’t you go bitch to your buddies Nathan Deal and his cronies. They have a better chance of lowering this state’s unemployment rate which is the second highest in the nation. As an ironic twist we also have the second highest population of “moochers.” Why do you want to blame President Obama for Deal’s terrible performance? Saxby and Johnny are sitting on their hands too. I wonder if any of them get raped with exorbitant healthcare bills? Have they had to take a pay cut like all of the other state employees? Where’s the accountability?
Oh, I see, that wouldn’t fit your “Blame Obama” whine?
Linda
September 22nd, 2012
1:58 pm
Natl. Debt on 1/20/01: $5.7 T
Natl. Debt on 1/19/09: $10.6 T
Natl. Debt on 9/22/12: $16 T
Bush added $4.9 T in 8 yrs.
Obama has added $5.4 & in 3 yrs., 8 mts.
When Obama adds another $300 B, he will have added more to the natl. debt in 3 yrs. & about 10 or 11 mts. than the first 42 presidents did in 223 years.
Part of the Bush debt was $700 B for TARP, paid back under Obama, except for Govt. Motors, etc.
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
September 22nd, 2012
2:17 pm
As an ironic twist we also have the second highest population of “moochers.” Why do you want to blame President Obama for Deal’s terrible performance?
——————–
Mostly an Atlanta thing. Why do you want to blame Our Governor Deal for Kasim Reed’s terrible performance?
Gravy Train
September 22nd, 2012
2:29 pm
Lil’ Brain, the overwhelming majority of “moochers” are whites in rural areas. It’s better to be informed before you post, that way you wont look like such an idiot.
Just Saying..
September 22nd, 2012
2:35 pm
Romney now receiving campaign suggestions from Newt and Sarah.
It’s a beautiful thing…