2012 Tuesday: What will we hear from Charlotte?
Last week in Tampa, the Republicans made significant progress toward their main objectives: revealing more of the personal side of Mitt Romney, and clearly communicating their pitch to voters in this election.
This week in Charlotte, it’s the Democrats’ turn. What will President Obama and his party try to accomplish? Will they continue to play defense against the GOP or try to seize the initiative?
Going into today’s opening events, it would appear it’s the former, with Democrats trying to neutralize the Republican message. Here’s part of today’s curtain-raiser from the Wall Street Journal:
The Democratic Party’s goals for the three-day gathering include widening its advantages among female and Hispanic voters while limiting Mr. Obama’s losses among white, working-class ones. At the same time, its overarching ambition is to rebut Mr. Obama’s opponent, Mitt Romney, who used last week’s Republican National Convention to try to pry away the president’s 2008 voters by casting him as a nice guy who isn’t up to the challenge. …
A senior Obama campaign official said the president may offer one or two new policy proposals in his speech Thursday, when he accepts the nomination for re-election, but that he would spend more time arguing that his existing ideas on health care, education and deficit-reduction amount to “a clear, concrete and achievable plan” for a second term.
The New York Times sounds a similar note, observing that the thrill of 2008 is gone and that Democrats’ “unity at this point is defined less by faith in Mr. Obama or a robust vision for what the party should stand for than by the prospect that Republicans could control the White House and Congress next year and enact a conservative agenda that would unravel much of what Democrats have stood for since Lyndon B. Johnson’s Great Society.”
So it’s defense, defense, defense.
In football, they say defense wins championships. Will that work in this year’s election?
I have my doubts. For one, pitching themselves and Obama as a suitable status quo against a radical Republican Party led by Romney and Paul Ryan would seem to hinge on the word “suitable.” And voters have their own doubts about that: In a new poll for The Hill, voters said the nation is worse, not better, off than four years ago by a 54-32 margin, and that Obama does not deserve re-election by a 54-40 count.
Even the Obama camp is having a hard time answering the “better off” question, made famous in 1980 when Ronald Reagan posed that question to voters after four years of Jimmy Carter’s presidency. Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley answered in the negative on “Face the Nation” Sunday — though he did gamely try to blame the Republicans — before backtracking on Monday.
Obama himself said yesterday he deserved a grade of “incomplete” for his handling of the economy, the same grade he gave himself last October and in August 2010. Will voters be as forgiving?
After the GOP spent a week being mostly upbeat in Tampa, I think it will be a problem for Obama if he and the Democrats can’t come up with a positive message in Charlotte.
– By Kyle Wingfield
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475 comments Add your comment
They BOTH suck
September 4th, 2012
3:19 pm
MHS
See my 3:18 and carry on
Kyle Wingfield
September 4th, 2012
3:20 pm
They BOTH @ 3:16: There’s been a 4.4-point swing from the time Ryan was added to the ticket to, essentially, the start of the convention. In the next couple of days, we ought to get more post-convention polling. And then, middle of next week, we ought to be able to see what the DNC did to the numbers.
It’s very fluid right now, but the direction is clearly in Romney’s favor. For now.
von
September 4th, 2012
3:20 pm
Ugh…..GARY JOHNSON 2012. You folks really should look into it.
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
September 4th, 2012
3:21 pm
If you go to Charlotte, you must eat fried chicken at Price’s Chicken Coop.
Oh my…….
I spent 4 years there in school. Also, Antony’s Caribbean Cafe in the city section called Elizabeth is probably the best jerk chicken and greens I’ve ever had, mon.
They BOTH suck
September 4th, 2012
3:25 pm
Kyle
Only major shift that I see on Clear Politics was that one from Fox. Not sure how RCP does their avg: weighted by date, weighted by number in each poll, some combination etc.
Of course I could have missed other polls that were that much of a difference that could have done the same. Do not look at RCP daily.
Either way, your point about Romney gaining some momentum is taken
DannyX
September 4th, 2012
3:26 pm
“Real Clear and Gallop are both averages of 10 days worth of polls. Romney will go up by the end of the DNC and then Obama will even out the polls next week. You could be a little more honest.”
That is not true td. Rasmussen uses a 3 day average, Gallup uses a 7 day average for their Presidential tracking polls.
Rasmussen which is now based on post Republican convention polling has already seen Romney’s “bump” decline by 2%, Romney +2, more like a small bounce for Romney in that poll.
Gallup includes 4 days post convention and their poll hasn’t budged so far, Obama still +1. Gallup also had a poll up yesterday that showed Romney’s speech wasn’t very well received.
Michael H. Smith
September 4th, 2012
3:26 pm
To:They BOTH suck
I don’t care what YOU believe and I dare you, not only challenge you, to cite where I have ever attacked anyone’s religious beliefs for political gainsay?
Nah oh pal, you are way off on this exchange of retorts. The right has by no means gone after Islam and Muslims with the kind of hateful bigotry as have your leftwingers in going after Christians and Jews.
Centrist
September 4th, 2012
3:26 pm
Incumbent presidents are rarely defeated. When they are, the writing is on the wall long before the political conventions. It is unlikely that Obama the incumbent will lose by a squeaker at this point.
Also, remember when Carter and Bush 1 lost, they didn’t have the liberal media backing. Carter lost the media when he beat their favorite liberal Ted Kennedy in the contested primaries. Bush was a Republican, so never had media backing.
This is not to say the media can cover up debate gaffes, or have much effect on turnout – both of which could possibly hurt Obama. IMO, neither is likely to overcome Obama’s current advantage.
Congress is going to either be divided or Republican and Obama will never face the voters again, so an Obama second term looks to quickly turn into a lame duck political gridlock.
Michael H. Smith
September 4th, 2012
3:28 pm
They BOTH suck ~See my 3:18 and carry on
I’m not going to waste anymore time with you and your phony defense of the leftwing religious bigotry.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Unexpectedly Revised Downward)
September 4th, 2012
3:29 pm
It’s very fluid right now, but the direction is clearly in Romney’s favor. For now.
—————–
You misspelled “America’s”.
Michael H. Smith
September 4th, 2012
3:30 pm
How many setting Presidents have been re-elected going into the race with unemployment of *5 or worse?
Michael H. Smith
September 4th, 2012
3:30 pm
Correction: “8% or worse?”
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
September 4th, 2012
3:31 pm
Vote like an American, and fix Obozo’s $1.5 trillion deficits, four years’ worth of 8-10% unemployment, record numbers on the dole, and get our AAA credit rating back.
They BOTH suck
September 4th, 2012
3:31 pm
MHS
If the shoe fits wear it, but I never said you did anything.
I did say some on the right and I also blamed the left
But the shoe seems to fit you very well, so carry on.
Good day and good walking
Romney Candidate of the Few by the Few for the Few
September 4th, 2012
3:32 pm
@Michael H. Smith
September 4th, 2012
2:23 pm
After the GOP spent a week being mostly upbeat in Tampa, I think it will be a problem for Obama if he and the Democrats can’t come up with a positive message in Charlotte.
After four years of failing to deliver a “positive change” in the economy, what good do you possibly think more phony utopian claims made by the same group of left-wing liars will do, Kyle?
*******************************************************************************
Up beat in Tampa?
RNC was dull as paint for the viewing public but the attendees
had the time of their life at a certain gentleman’s strip club.
The DNC will show up and show OUT.
JDW
September 4th, 2012
3:32 pm
@Kyle…”What a difference 13 minutes makes in JDW’s opinion of the quality of a source. RCP went from being the gold standard whose vetting he trusts to a compilation of “bad one off polls.” Rasmussen went from being a biased source to one of his examples countering the RCP figure.”
Noooooooo you wouldn’t twist words would you.
Real Clear Politics is the standard I use and I don’t adjust Rasmussen, even though you really should. As for the one offs…you are the one making assumptions based on bumps, I just dug into the data to find out that when you compare polls to polls ie Rasmussen, Gallup ect… there is no bump.
Keep on drinking that koolaid if you want but the fact is only “momentum” Romney/Ryan have has been assigned by the Conservative pundits and is not supported by a review of the pertinent facts.
But I shouldn’t be surprised after all those same pundits would have us believe things were better at the end of 2008?
Q4 2008 job losses equaled 1.5 MILLION
Q4 2008 GDP decline was 8.9%
Business credit was non existent
DOW ended the year at 8776
O’ yeah that was much better…
Romney Candidate of the Few by the Few for the Few
September 4th, 2012
3:34 pm
@Lil’ Barry Bailout – Vote American
September 4th, 2012
3:31 pm
Vote like an American, and fix Obozo’s $1.5 trillion deficits, four years’ worth of 8-10% unemployment, record numbers on the dole, and get our AAA credit rating back.
******************************************************************
The last time I checked everyone who voted –
voted like an American.
This is America?
They BOTH suck
September 4th, 2012
3:34 pm
MHS
I am not your “pal” nor his my blog name “pal”. You can refer to me by my blog name or pass me by
capiche?
ByteMe
September 4th, 2012
3:35 pm
Q4 2008 job losses equaled 1.5 MILLION
Q4 2008 GDP decline was 8.9%
Business credit was non existent
DOW ended the year at 8776
Watch it, JDW, or you’ll be accused again of using DNC talking points.
getalife
September 4th, 2012
3:36 pm
Better off?
Duh.
A collapsed economy and two very costly occupations four years ago.
No attacks, no new occupations and no more collapses.
Did you forget what w handed our President?
Michael H. Smith
September 4th, 2012
3:36 pm
They BOTH suck
Worry about your on shoes, my shoes and walk are just fine. Now you can carry on with your false claims and vain replies as you wish, without me.
JDW
September 4th, 2012
3:37 pm
@Kyle…”Rasmussen went from being a biased source to one of his examples countering the RCP figure.”
BTW…I never said they were inconsistant…only biased by 4%…all you have to do is factor it out until the week before the election when they “adjust”.
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
September 4th, 2012
3:37 pm
Few by the Few: The last time I checked everyone who voted – voted like an American.
—————-
If that were the case, we would have elected an American. Not an America-hating Marxist who was fortunate enough to have a Hawaii birth certificate.
You understand the difference between being an American and being a mere citizen, right?
Michael H. Smith
September 4th, 2012
3:37 pm
MHS
And that is not my blog name
GOT IT!!!
JDW
September 4th, 2012
3:39 pm
@Byteme…”Watch it, JDW, or you’ll be accused again of using DNC talking points.”
ByteMe
September 4th, 2012
3:40 pm
trying to guess how the public will recieve the truth instead of just telling it.
Or they don’t want to step on Obama’s Thursday night speech.
Romney Candidate of the Few by the Few for the Few
September 4th, 2012
3:41 pm
@Michael H. Smith
September 4th, 2012
3:30 pm
How many setting Presidents have been re-elected going into the race with unemployment of *5 or worse?
*********************************************************
I don’t know how many “SETTING” Presidents have been re-elected.
And I don’t know how many “SITTING” Presidents have been re-elected either.
DOES YOU KNOW?
heeheeheeheeheeheeheehee
JDW
September 4th, 2012
3:41 pm
“You understand the difference between being an American and being a mere citizen, right?”
Ugh…no….I must have missed it. Did Joe McCarthy bequeath you the job of Purity Czar?
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
September 4th, 2012
3:41 pm
MHS with the sanctimonious outcry ONCE again:
The right has by no means gone after Islam and Muslims with the kind of hateful bigotry as have your leftwingers in going after Christians and Jews.
Ok, when is the last time a Democrat torched or blew up a christian church or physically attacked people based on their religion?
When was the last time a Democrat wanted to force Muslim or Jewish beliefs on EVERY other religion by having their theory of creation forced on school children or having manuscript portions inscribed in our public places?
When was the last time a Democrat howled about the “War on Hannukah” or the “War on Ramadan” because a couple of christians complained about having to listen to their holiday music EVERY freakin where?
Heh?
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
September 4th, 2012
3:42 pm
Sorry folks, I responded to Few by the Few, but looking back at her post, it’s pretty obvious it’s just Trash and by responding I encouraged one of the problem-children. Won’t happen again.
Kyle Wingfield
September 4th, 2012
3:42 pm
JDW: RCP is the standard I was using: From Obama +4.7 points on Aug. 12 to +0.3 today. You dismissed it as a bunch of “bad one off polls.” Now you’re back to declaring it your standard again. Just as I predicted…
JDW
September 4th, 2012
3:42 pm
“Or they don’t want to step on Obama’s Thursday night speech.”
We can only hope!
getalife
September 4th, 2012
3:43 pm
The cons will not watch the dem convention because the truth will be told.
It will disrupt their make believe world.
Michael H. Smith
September 4th, 2012
3:43 pm
And I don’t know how many “SITTING” Presidents have been re-elected either.(?)
It has been cited as, NONE! ha,ha,ha,ha
Kyle Wingfield
September 4th, 2012
3:43 pm
ByteMe @ 3:35: Forgive me. Perhaps he cut and pasted all that from Media Matters.
They BOTH suck
September 4th, 2012
3:44 pm
Michael H. Smith
It will be ok. Election is still a ways off. Do not get your blood pressure up needlessly.
getalife
September 4th, 2012
3:44 pm
The polls had McCain up by 10 then corrected a few days before the election.
Romney Candidate of the Few by the Few for the Few
September 4th, 2012
3:45 pm
@Lil’ Barry Bailout – Vote American
September 4th, 2012
3:37 pm
Few by the Few: The last time I checked everyone who voted – voted like an American.
—————-
If that were the case, we would have elected an American. Not an America-hating Marxist who was fortunate enough to have a Hawaii birth certificate.
You understand the difference between being an American and being a mere citizen, right?
******************************************************************
I understand the difference between facts and dog whistles.
I understand that a lie is half way around the world before it puts
its boot on.
Michael H. Smith
September 4th, 2012
3:46 pm
ByteMe @ 3:35: Forgive me. Perhaps he cut and pasted all that from Media Matters.
Yeah, they do get around don’t they Kyle?
@@
September 4th, 2012
3:46 pm
Give him five more minutes — or the right point to “prove” — and RCP will be back in good favor and Rasmussen will be a bum again.
Can I schnirt?
ByteMe
September 4th, 2012
3:46 pm
Forgive me. Perhaps he cut and pasted all that from Media Matters.
Impugning the source instead of addressing the content?
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
September 4th, 2012
3:46 pm
Getalife at 3:43
How true is that?
“American Idle” and “I Shouldn’t have Married that Hooker” will be back in the top TV spot this week.
JDW
September 4th, 2012
3:47 pm
@kyle..”JDW: RCP is the standard I was using: From Obama +4.7 points on Aug. 12 to +0.3 today. You dismissed it as a bunch of “bad one off polls.” Now you’re back to declaring it your standard again. Just as I predicted…”
Are you having trouble grasping the concept of digging into the data to understand what’s going on versus taking it at face value? It is an indicator just like everything else and when you dig under the covers the data does not support the assertion that Romney got a 4 point bump or that he has momentum. But like I said…keep on drinking that koolaid if you like.
Romney Candidate of the Few by the Few for the Few
September 4th, 2012
3:47 pm
@Michael H. Smith
September 4th, 2012
3:43 pm
And I don’t know how many “SITTING” Presidents have been re-elected either.(?)
It has been cited as, NONE! ha,ha,ha,ha
********************************************************************
None ‘SETTING” or none “SITTING” or none ‘SQUATING”?
heeheeheeheeheeheehee
Michael H. Smith
September 4th, 2012
3:48 pm
Impugning Media Matters?!
ByteMe
September 4th, 2012
3:48 pm
The polls had McCain up by 10 then corrected a few days before the election.
The way I remember it, starting on (about) Sept 15, when McCain “suspended” his campaign to not deal with the economic crisis, he was never on top again.
JDW
September 4th, 2012
3:49 pm
“Can I schnirt?”
You can do what you like but you really should keep it from dribbling down your shirt.
Michael H. Smith
September 4th, 2012
3:49 pm
Nevertheless the answer remains… None ha,ha,ha,ha,
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
September 4th, 2012
3:50 pm
Media Matters can be dismissed out of hand, yes. The burden of establishing their credibility on any particular story lies with the poster who uses their propaganda.
ByteMe
September 4th, 2012
3:51 pm
Correction: “8% or worse?”
It has been cited as, NONE! ha,ha,ha,ha
#FAIL.
FDR. The only other president who had to deal with an economic crisis similar to what we faced in 2008/2009.