Obama campaign so far: The perfect analogy?
If there’s a better analogy for the Obama presidency, I’d like to hear it. From a New York Times article over the weekend:
President Obama has spent more campaign cash more quickly than any incumbent in recent history, betting that heavy early investments in personnel, field offices and a high-tech campaign infrastructure will propel him to victory in November.
Since the beginning of last year, Mr. Obama and the Democrats have burned through millions of dollars to find and register voters. They have spent almost $50 million subsidizing Democratic state parties to hire workers, pay for cellphones and update voter lists. They have spent tens of millions of dollars on polling, online advertising and software development to turn Mr. Obama’s fallow volunteers corps into a grass-roots army.
The price tag: about $400 million from the beginning of last year to June 30 this year, according to a New York Times analysis of Federal Election Commission records, including $86 million on advertising.
Let’s see: Unprecedented rate of spending? Check. Large amounts of money for sexy but as-yet-unproven technology? Check. Subsidies to the states? Check.
All to produce a lead, while Mitt Romney is caught between depleted primary funds and restricted from spending his significantly larger general-election funds, that is more or less within the margin of error. And the Obama campaign has not persuaded donors to contribute more heavily to it: July, the third complete month since Romney’s GOP challengers ceded the field to him, was also the third straight month his campaign has out-raised Obama’s.
So, we also have: Ineffective? Check.
Yep, that about sums it up.
– By Kyle Wingfield
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286 comments Add your comment
Jefferson
August 6th, 2012
11:23 am
Its tougher for some than others, if you didn’t know.
jd
August 6th, 2012
11:28 am
Investment in infrastructure required to withstand deluge of “independent” spending — check!
Road Scholar
August 6th, 2012
11:30 am
Is President Obama leading in the polls? Last time I checked, it is the candidates prerogative to spend his money as he wishes, huh?
How much will it cost Romney in releasing his tax returns? Both monetarily and vote-wise? (ans. not much and we’ll see!)
DannyX
August 6th, 2012
11:36 am
“So, we also have: Ineffective? Check.”
Ineffective? Obama is spending his money in the swing states, his lead is increasing in the swing states. The more you look at the swing state polls the more you realize what an uphill battle Romney faces.
jconservative
August 6th, 2012
11:37 am
Obama has, to date, made the election as much an issue about Romney and his finances/taxes as Romney has made the Obama record on finances an issue.
Remember Obama has accomplished one thing Romney has not; he has been elected President of the United States.
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
August 6th, 2012
11:40 am
Now all they need is to get their credit rating slashed and they can claim it’s working!
straitroad
August 6th, 2012
11:40 am
Road,
Releasing tax returns won’t help this economy. Only getting rid of someone who was never remotely qualified to lead will help us. Besides, if you are so concerned about candidates releasing records, why not ask Barry to show us his college transcripts? Then we can see if a) he lied about forgeign student status or b) he’s an idiot.
jbotcha
August 6th, 2012
11:41 am
Wingfield, you sound like a drone for the corporate state. Just shut up already.
Tom
August 6th, 2012
11:44 am
So when do we get to the analogy? Do you not know what “analogy” means?
If it aint one thing it's another
August 6th, 2012
11:45 am
Kyle
While not in total agreement, your article does have a degree of merit.
Problem for Republicans as much as many on the right don not wish to acknowlwdge: Romney.
You guys went with Romney?
I can only say “WOW”.
Will not be the beat down administered to McCain, but in the end, Romney will still go down in defeat.
I demand to see Cheesy Grits Birth Certificate- Long Form Please
August 6th, 2012
11:46 am
Obama is a tough candidate. Don’t let the cool demeanor fool you.
There is a tiger in there.
I dont think Romney is in any way ready for what is coming at him.
ragnar danneskjold
August 6th, 2012
11:47 am
Ha, funny, well done. Our loopy opponents need to ask themselves why the smartest and best-talking president ever, a true Chauncey Gardener, is not over 50% anywhere other than California.
md
August 6th, 2012
11:51 am
“The more you look at the swing state polls the more you realize what an uphill battle Romney faces.”
Might want to look at the underlying numbers used in several of those polls…….polling higher numbers of one side in a swing state is a bit misleading……..it would be like polling the black panthers or the kkk and then publishing the results…….wonder how each would vote?
Will
August 6th, 2012
11:52 am
Republican newspaper writers and radio/tv entertainers are a hoot!!
Let’s look at a couple of examples: They are livid, livid I tell you, that someone would suggest Mitt Romney is hiding something by hiding his tax returns. These people are implying guilt based only on the fact that Romney is not “proving” something by not releasing his tax returns. Sort of reminds you of these same newspaper writter and radio/tv entertainers who said that the proof that the President was not born in the United States comes from the fact that he has not “proved” he was born in the United States.
Another example: That mean ole Obama is running a vile, negative campaign. This from supporters of a candidate who will go down in history as running the single most vile primary campaign in history in the state of Florida against Speaker Gingrich.
It is a good thing that Governor Romney is not a republican newspaper writer or radio//tv entertainer as he is smart enough to know that sticking to jobs, spending and the economy will get him elected….not worrying about how the President spends his campaign funds, talks to the President of Turkey or how many times he phones Olympic athletes. Jobs, spending and the economy…that’s what the small section of independent voters will respond to. All that other stuff is great for the base to whine and wail about but, when the day is done, the base will always be there anyway.
Want another one? How four years ago when republican newspaper writers and radio/tv entertainers were shocked and indignant, indignant I tell you, that the democrat party nominee would campaign in Europe. When Romney did it…not so much!!
If it aint one thing it's another
August 6th, 2012
11:52 am
Ragnar
You need to asl yourself, if Obama is as bad as I think, why is he still in the driver’s seat?
Romney is your answer but your are too partisan to see what is right in front of your face.
A mediocre at best President will be sending Romney back to the diners and fairs of Iowa to kick off his 3rd bid for the WH.
MrLiberty
August 6th, 2012
11:53 am
Giant jobs program funded with other people’s money whose intention is to perpetuate lies in order to secure the presidency.
I think that sums up both his candidacy and his past 3 years in office.
By the way, Mitt is just as much of a big-government scumbag. Let’s hope the GOP comes to their senses in Tampa and nominates someone who actually supports changing the course of america and returning to the constitutional limits on government and empire.
Kyle Wingfield
August 6th, 2012
11:57 am
DannyX @ 11:36: Here’s Obama’s (rounded) lead in the Real Clear Politics average of polls for each state:
OH: +5
VA: +3
FL: +1
IA: +1
WI: +6
MI: +6
PA: +7
NH: +3
NC: -1
MO: -6
CO: +3
NV: +5
AZ: -9
OR: +8
That’s after 2-3 months of “unprecedented” early spending, much larger spending than Romney has been able to do in those states. And almost all the swing states are in the low- to mid-single digits.
The challenge for Romney is that he almost has to sweep the true swing state (i.e., not the likes of PA or OR). Obama’s leads in those are hardly overwhelming.
DannyX
August 6th, 2012
11:58 am
“Our loopy opponents need to ask themselves why the smartest and best-talking president ever, a true Chauncey Gardener, is not over 50% anywhere other than California.”
Who are the loopy ones Ragnar? According to Real Clear Politics Obama is over 50% in California AND New York, Illinois, Washington, Minnesota, Vermont, New Mexico, Maryland, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Hawaii, and Maine.
Things are looking great in the pretendland of Republicans.
PJ
August 6th, 2012
11:59 am
I agree with Road, until Romney’s tax returns are released he will continue to slide. Obama may be spending a lot but he is reaping the results. And we are still waiting for an explanation on how someone can get to an IRA worth $100,000,000.00.
And I say again I bet he won’t do all three debates. Romney is not the type to conform, he only does what he wants to do. You Cons better change candidates before he receives the nomination. As the old saying goes, “You broke it, you brought”.
JDW
August 6th, 2012
12:01 pm
@Kyle…”Ineffective? Check.”
Maybe you out to check the EV projections…if we voted today it wouldn’t be close. I think it has been damn effective so far. Obama is defining Romney in the swing states and his leads are increasing with every poll.
As for Romney’s spending….cry me a river. Romney has had months to define himself and he chose to define his Republican opponents.
Now to this bit…”Mitt Romney is caught between depleted primary funds and restricted from spending his significantly larger general-election funds”
Mittens isn’t caught between anything. Crossroads et al is out there shilling for him every day. According to the AP this morning…
“The Obama campaign has laid out nearly $125 million on broadcast and cable TV spots so far and has reserved millions more for August and the fall.”
Additionally groups have spent about $20 on behalf of Obama bringing us to a grand total of $145 million.
If you add up all the Romney focused spending in the same piece it comes to comparable spending of $201 million…the real question is how could Romney be trailing so badly?
http://www.star-telegram.com/2012/08/05/4155251/presidential-tv-ad-spending-focused.html#storylink=cpy
If it aint one thing it's another
August 6th, 2012
12:01 pm
md
Does Karl Rove’s and Rasmussen (who did polling for Bush) polls always use that same liberal bias you are alludding too?
Their polls are close to the one Kyle posted
wallbanger
August 6th, 2012
12:01 pm
Reid calling for tax reports is a laugh. I would love it if some enterprising and honest, reporter would look into the investments of all of the Congressional multi-millionaires–most of whom are Democrats, and publish where they are “hiding” their money. My bet is that an awful lot of them will have those investments offshore, and in foreign companies. Why doesn’t the Romney campaign do that investigation? Not that any of this matters. I want to know when the business environment can improve and people can feel empowered to make their own futures again, the way they felt in the 60’s. Nowadays, this President tells them they need a handout and a hand up because they are too dog gone incompetent and pitiful to help themselves—and they believe him!! That is the saddest part.
Uncle Billy
August 6th, 2012
12:04 pm
The “effective” part is that Gingrich, Perry, Santorum et. al. carpet bombed Mittens to make it easy for the President to continue. It has been very effective. Then Mittens went to the Olympics and carpet bombed himself. He must have the most inept campaign staff in recent memory. He is going down in flames.
DannyX
August 6th, 2012
12:04 pm
“Obama’s leads in those are hardly overwhelming.”
They are overwhelming if you look at the graphs that show the movement for the 2 candidates which is basically unchanged with no big ups and downs for either candidate. That is another reason having more campaign money this election will not make a very big difference, there are few undecideds out there, most people have already made up their minds.
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
August 6th, 2012
12:04 pm
The challenge for Romney is that he almost has to sweep the true swing state (i.e., not the likes of PA or OR). Obama’s leads in those are hardly overwhelming.
Not to mention picking the right VP.
That’s could be a 3 or 4 point bump by itself.
If it aint one thing it's another
August 6th, 2012
12:06 pm
Kyle
Are you talking all spending or just that of the campaigns? There has been a lot of spending already in the states you mentioned outside of the campaigns.
Whether it is for Obama or Romney that spending must be taken into account.
If it aint one thing it's another
August 6th, 2012
12:08 pm
I report
Make me laugh$ A 3 or 4 pt bump for VP pick.
Not even the Romney camp expects that.
Take off the tin foil hat
Hahahaha
md
August 6th, 2012
12:08 pm
“Does Karl Rove’s and Rasmussen (who did polling for Bush) polls always use that same liberal bias you are alludding too?”
Merely stated to look at the underlying numbers……that should include every poll……..
If it aint one thing it's another
August 6th, 2012
12:11 pm
md
Well I doubt Rove and Rasmussen’s polls fit that example you used, yet still show Romney as the one with work to do.
Just saying
Jefferson
August 6th, 2012
12:13 pm
Romney own a gas can in the US?(Caymans not included)
Home Boy
August 6th, 2012
12:15 pm
Obama runs his campaign like he runs his government – spend big – go broke…….. fade in the end.
md
August 6th, 2012
12:16 pm
“They are overwhelming if you look at the graphs that show the movement for the 2 candidates which is basically unchanged with no big ups and downs for either candidate. That is another reason having more campaign money this election will not make a very big difference, there are few undecideds out there, most people have already made up their minds.”
I think you miss the gist of the thread…..yes, it is basically unchanged with Obama doing all the spending. Romney can’t access all his funds until after the convention, while Obama had funds because he didn’t have a primary……so all that one sided spending should have given him a bigger lead….right?
And history seems to indicate that the undecideds tend to vote against the incumbent……..if they still liked the incumbent, odds are they wouldn’t be undecided.
Just saying..
August 6th, 2012
12:18 pm
“… the third straight month his campaign has out-raised Obama’s.”
Amazing that all these beaten down, hamstrung, doing poorly businesses have the cash to donate…
If it aint one thing it's another
August 6th, 2012
12:18 pm
Homeboy
Guess you were not around for the 2008 election.
Just saying
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
August 6th, 2012
12:19 pm
Another factor with the Real Clear poll is that they are an average of all the polls out there. So they are including the likes of See BS, the Clinton News Network, Pewage Research and all the other psychotic outliers.
I ain’t done the math but Romney could really have a double digit lead right now.
Stephenson Billings
August 6th, 2012
12:21 pm
And yet Obama’s female campaign workers are still making less than the male ones. SO much for equality I guess.
If it aint one thing it's another
August 6th, 2012
12:23 pm
md
Wake up. There has been much spending on behalf of Romney. Spending in swing states is well on the way with commercials daily from right and left leaning groups.
Na
md
August 6th, 2012
12:23 pm
“Well I doubt Rove and Rasmussen’s polls fit that example you used, yet still show Romney as the one with work to do.”
And some pollsters will tell you the incumbent has the work to do if he is under 50%……
It’s all a guessing game until Nov………
If it aint one thing it's another
August 6th, 2012
12:23 pm
md
Wake up. There has been much spending on behalf of Romney. Spending in swing states is well on the way with commercials daily from right and left leaning groups.
Na
Slick Rick
August 6th, 2012
12:24 pm
Republicans lied. People died. ‘Nuff said.
Obama/Biden victory in 2012 – check.
Clinton/[___] victory in 2016 and 2020 – check.
Republican/right wing irrelevance – check.
Mate.
If it aint one thing it's another
August 6th, 2012
12:24 pm
md
Wake up. There has been much spending on behalf of Romney. Spending in swing states is well on the way with commercials daily from right and left leaning groups.
Na
If it aint one thing it's another
August 6th, 2012
12:26 pm
I report
Place that big bet on Romney today. You could make a bundle. Look up the odds on Intrade.
md
August 6th, 2012
12:27 pm
“Wake up. There has been much spending on behalf of Romney. Spending in swing states is well on the way with commercials daily from right and left leaning groups. ”
Fully awake here…..maybe you need to do some research on when a candidate can use the money at their disposal…….which is why Kyle mentioned it at the top.
DannyX
August 6th, 2012
12:27 pm
“think you miss the gist of the thread…..yes, it is basically unchanged with Obama doing all the spending”
No I didn’t miss the gist of this thread. Look at the graphs of the past 5 elections and you will see huge swings from one candidate to the other during the 9 months leading up to the election. This election has basically been 2 flat lines headed towards the finish. There may not be enough undecideds left that could swing the election to Romney. Money won’t be the factor it was in previous elections.
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
August 6th, 2012
12:29 pm
obozo is pending another giant load trying to walk back the “You didn’t build that” idiocy that we all saw emerge from his Teleprompter-less mouth. That’s almost a Romney campaign ad that Romney didn’t have to spend a dime on.
It’s all good, repugs.
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
August 6th, 2012
12:29 pm
spending, not “pending” geez
If it aint one thing it's another
August 6th, 2012
12:30 pm
md
Just have some tissues handy come November….. You will be needing plenty of them. Will be relatively close in popular vote but not as close as you think in the EC
DannyX
August 6th, 2012
12:30 pm
LOL! Speaking of Rasmussen…
Today they have Obama +2 over Romney.
PJ
August 6th, 2012
12:34 pm
Just saying..@12:18 pm
Agreed. And they are all spending their money on a “Pig in a Poke”. Romney likes old sayings and this one fits him perfectly. Cons refuse to look in the bag to see what they have brought.
Del
August 6th, 2012
12:36 pm
Kyle,
Rasmussen’s swing state polls show a much closer margin of difference between Obama and Romney. In fact all within the margin of error. I saw a poll that shows about 5% of the electorate still undecided with Obama at a 62% unfavorable but that 62% has not warmed up to Romney.