T-SPLOST falls in metro Atlanta; several incumbents unseated
UPDATE at 12:16 p.m.: My colleagues on the news side have now called the referendum as well, declaring T-SPLOST defeated in metro Atlanta. It’s on to Plan B. The one thing I can say with certainty: There will be a Plan B.
That’s it for tonight. More to come Wednesday.
UPDATE at 11:55 p.m.: At least four incumbent House members were defeated Tuesday by challengers:
- Charlice Byrd, R-Woodstock, lost 53-47 to Michael Caldwell;
- Steve Davis, R-McDonough, lost 65-35 to Dale Rutledge;
- Doug McKillip, an Athenian who went from being a member of the House Democratic leadership to a Republican who this year sponsored the so-called fetal pain anti-abortion bill, lost 50.4-49.6 to Regina Quick;
- Keith Heard, D-Athens, lost 55-45 to Spencer Frye.
In addition, there are two districts where House Democratic incumbents were paired against each other. Pat Gardner had a 63-37 lead over Rashad Taylor, while Simone Bell led Ralph Long 57-43.
And another six House incumbents were in real trouble: Judy Manning, R-Marietta; Yasmin Neal, D-Jonesboro; Glenn Baker, D-Jonesboro; Kip Smith, R-Columbus; and Jason Spencer, R-Woodbine, all were trailing late Tuesday night, and Pam Dickerson, D-Conyers, was headed for a runoff against Sharon Sawyer.
UPDATE at 11:30 p.m.: My prediction of a single-digit loss for metro Atlanta’s T-SPLOST is looking shaky. With two-thirds of the region’s precincts reporting, the tax is trailing by a whopping 18 28 percentage points, 64-36 (sorry, late-night math — KW). We shall see what the final margin is, but I feel safe in saying the tax has been defeated.
In other news, it would appear state Sen. Jack Murphy survived a tough primary challenge. Other endangered Senate incumbents (see previous update) were still having to sweat it out. Sens. Miriam Paris and Bill Heath, and probably Gail Davenport as well, appeared headed for runoffs.
UPDATE at 10:10 p.m.: A few incumbent state senators appear to be in some trouble tonight. With the caveat that it’s still early, with important parts of these districts still to report, the nervous ones tonight are:
- Majority Whip Cecil Station, R-Macon, who trails challenger Spencer Price 51-49 at the moment;
- Johnny Grant, R-Milledgeville, who trails Burt Jones 53-47;
- Miriam Paris, D-Macon, who trails former state Rep. David Lucas 48-47 (with a third candidate taking a handful of votes);
- Jack Murphy, R-Cumming, who has drawn criticism for remaining chairman of the Senate Banking Committee while being sued by the FDIC, leads Steve Voshall 50.2-49.8;
- Bill Heath, R-Bremen, a.k.a. the man who put longtime Speaker Tom Murphy out of politics, leads Bill Carruth 45-42 in another three-man race;
- Gail Davenport, D-Jonesboro, is trailing former state Sen. Gail Buckner 48-37 in a three-person race;
UPDATE at 9:44 p.m.: In congressional races, we appear to be headed to runoffs in a couple of GOP primaries.
In the newly created 9th District centered on Hall and Forsyth counties, state Rep. Doug Collins has 42 percent of the vote and radio talk-show host Martha Zoller 41 percent. There still are a number of counties still to fully report in that large, Northeast Georgia district.
In the 12th, which Republicans redrew last year to be much more favorable to their party against incumbent Democrat John Barrow, state Rep. Lee Anderson has an early lead in a four-way race. But the Augusta area, home to two of the challengers, has yet to report most of its results.
We might also see a Republican runoff in the 2nd, although incumbent Democrat Sanford Bishop is much safer in his redrawn district than he was in 2010, when he barely held onto his office. Whoever emerges from the GOP side is unlikely to give him nearly as tough a run this year.
Neither Hank Johnson (D) nor Phil Gingrey (R) nor Lynn Westmoreland (R), the only incumbents to face more than one primary challenger, seems likely to end up in a runoff. (Note: I left Westmoreland off that list originally. — KW)
UPDATE at 9:30 p.m.: Two and a half hours after the polls closed, we still don’t have a ton of clarity about how T-SPLOST is faring in metro Atlanta. That’s because Clayton, DeKalb and Fulton counties are just beginning to report the bulk of their returns. When they do, the 66-34 lead for the “no” vote will narrow considerably. I still look for disapproval of the sales-tax hike by single digits.
That said, the nightmare scenario for state officials seems to be unfolding: Metro Atlanta, for whom the T-SPLOST was created, will vote it down while it passes in other regions, tying the hands of state lawmakers in coming up with Plan B. The tax is currently ahead in the regions surrounding Augusta and Columbus, along with the one in rural southeast-central (ish) Georgia stretching from Wrightsville to Jesup. I still think the only option will be for another vote within a couple of years.
ORIGINAL POST:
Tonight — or early Wednesday morning — we’ll learn the fate not only of the T-SPLOST in metro Atlanta and 11 other regions around the state. We’ll also find out the winners in a number of elections for Congress and the statehouse, whether other races are going to runoffs, and how the ballot measures fared in the Democratic and GOP primaries.
I’ll update this post as the evening wears on. You can get results here.
– By Kyle Wingfield
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456 comments Add your comment
Kyle Wingfield
July 31st, 2012
10:21 pm
Jm @ 10:16: I wrote in my print column last Thursday that I was voting “no.” That column drew heavily on this blog post a couple of days beforehand, so I didn’t reprint it here. But, given what I’d written in print and online about the tax for the past several months, I have a hard time believing anyone thought I might have voted for it.
Jm
July 31st, 2012
10:21 pm
Kyle Wingfield
July 31st, 2012
10:18 pm
Slapped @ 10:16: I’ll agree with that. This was a mediocre list promoted by a fairly mediocre campaign at an inopportune time.
LinkReport this comment
Future list, if there ever is a future list, won’t look much different
Suck it up Atlanta
Enjoy the traffic jams
Don’t make any time sensitive commitments
Cause you can’t keep them
Have fun
BW
July 31st, 2012
10:21 pm
Kyle
What do you think of the vote totals to date in Regions 7,8,and 9 on T-SPLOST? If those margins hold, you could have quite a story to write tomorrow along with the bloodbath in our region….more importantly what’s next.
Slapped Down Again
July 31st, 2012
10:22 pm
Kyle
I mentioned early about not voting for it and asked if you knew anything in regards to Dallas and Charlotte.
Seems that many Republican politicians wanted it, but didn’t want to be seen as favoring a tax hike so there was a luke warm campaign.
Not putting it all on Republicans, because I am sure many Democrats voted against it as well, however they pretty much run things on the state level.
Chris Sanchez
July 31st, 2012
10:22 pm
In the Atlanta region, it looks pretty obvious that T-SPLOST will be defeated this evening. Maybe this will be a wake up call for supporters that it will take more than advertising and endorsements to get a tax increase pushed through. It will have to actually accomplish what it is supposed to before it will find enough support to pass.
Jm
July 31st, 2012
10:23 pm
Kyle
Well good to know you took a stand, I wouldn’t guess you’d vote for it but didn’t know for sure
Enjoy the congestion
No whining
Slapped Down Again
July 31st, 2012
10:24 pm
Jm
You seem angry. If you no longer live here then you do not have to worry about it either way.
Maybe you have friends and family in the metro area, but it shouldn’t impact your daily life.
Why the anger?
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
July 31st, 2012
10:24 pm
“In the meantime Charlotte gets all the Federal transportation “matching” dollars in the SE region because of NO local commitment in Atlanta!!!”
There is nothing to stop the legislature from doing their job and coming up with a plan that doesn’t cost as much, and they get to vote for themselves – you know, the way it is supposed to be?
Jm
July 31st, 2012
10:24 pm
“It will have to actually accomplish what it is supposed to before it will find enough support to pass.”
Pipe dreams
Atlanta is a third rate city going forward
td
July 31st, 2012
10:25 pm
Chris
July 31st, 2012
10:20 pm
So? If you like Charlotte so much then can we expect you to be moving soon? It will cut down on my traffic.
Jm
July 31st, 2012
10:27 pm
Slapped
I just think Atlantans are stupid
And I used to be one
Whew, glad I’m out
It takes me 15 to 17 minutes to drive to work every day, 8 miles a day
In the 380 days I’ve lived here, I haven’t hit a traffic jam yet
Suck it up Atlanta
The green grass is elsewhere and it truly is greener
I do have friends and family in the Atl still, I fell bad for them
Boy Atlanta sux
td
July 31st, 2012
10:28 pm
Jm
July 31st, 2012
10:24 pm
“It will have to actually accomplish what it is supposed to before it will find enough support to pass.”
Pipe dreams
Atlanta is a third rate city going forward
Then why are you staying in such a “third rate city”?
Kyle Wingfield
July 31st, 2012
10:28 pm
BW @ 10:21: I wrote about this scenario a while back. I think that line of thinking still stands: With their hands tied, state officials will have few choices besides letting regions vote on a different list. They might concede and allow counties to form their own regions rather than forcing them into combinations that in many cases made no sense (the Northwest Georgia region is a case in point).
But Plan B in other cities whose first referendums failed has been to vote again later. I expect that what we’ll see here, too.
Jm
July 31st, 2012
10:29 pm
Tiberius 10:24
You’re asking politicians to be more responsible than the voters
Hilarious
td
July 31st, 2012
10:29 pm
Jm
July 31st, 2012
10:27 pm
You moved and are still whining? Enjoy your new life and break the connection with Atlanta.
Old Timer
July 31st, 2012
10:29 pm
I’m very glad I work from home, telecommuting full-time. No GA politician hoping for reelection will ever vote for any kind of tax increase for transportation improvements, and the populace won’t either. I’ll be watching the traffic jams on TV. Be sure to wave to the copters as they hover overhead.
iggy
July 31st, 2012
10:30 pm
TSplost is DOA in all regions except Atlanta where the forged ballots have yet to come in.
Downforthecount
July 31st, 2012
10:31 pm
Well it appears that the Tsplost will fail in 9 of 12 regions, and the margin of defeat is significant. A Plan B probably won’t go anywhere either unless there are some serious reforms at GDOT. In a lot of recent press it was noted that the public really doesn’t trust GDOT, and unless that changes even a Plan B in two years probably won’t be any better.
iggy
July 31st, 2012
10:31 pm
“Atlanta is a third rate city going forward”
Atlanta has been a third rate city for some 12 or so years.
Brosephus™
July 31st, 2012
10:31 pm
This was a mediocre list promoted by a fairly mediocre campaign at an inopportune time.
The list was absolutely horrible. There was nothing on that list that would do much to improve traffic in the metro area. The way to cut commute times is to remove cars from the road, not just widen/build more roads.
I voted no on this, and it had little to do with the contents of the plan. I think the plan, as a whole, stinks. However, I find it more insulting that people who actively campaigned to do a job simply refused to do what would be best for the economy of the state. Instead, they choose to do what’s right/best for ideological purity. Metro Atlanta might end up with only 10 useable bridges and 5 roads in the future, but by golly, the tax rate will still be real low.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
July 31st, 2012
10:31 pm
It’s their job, Jm. I know. I used to be one of them.
getalife
July 31st, 2012
10:32 pm
cons voting against the gop on a tax and capping lobbyist gifts?
Change.
Kyle Wingfield
July 31st, 2012
10:33 pm
Slapped @ 10:22: I’m not super-familiar with what happened in those cities, only that similar taxes have failed in other cities and later been approved. I actually think that’s a pretty natural process, because voters tend not to focus in detail on things like 157-item transportation project lists … until they have a 157-item transportation project list put in front of them. The public feedback once a list exists is bound to be qualitatively (and probably quantitatively) different from any pre-list feedback.
I’m also not sure the campaign was lukewarm as much as misguided. Late in the game, they were running ads about Ronald Reagan, as if all they needed to do was convince suburban Republicans that paying for infrastructure is OK. They missed the point of the opposition, which was not saying “no” to any new infrastructure, but “no” to this particular list of infrastructure. Granted, in the last two weeks there was nothing they could do about the list. But they weren’t even trying to defend the specific items that were unpopular.
John Glover
July 31st, 2012
10:33 pm
Really, this is the best you guys can come up with. Why don’t you just say, that because corporate america is shipping all our jobs overseas, there will be no need for roads. This was not a competition, it used to be called progress. Good by to all that. Ike would say take my name down. 22 Trillion dollars of corporate profits overseas and we vote down a penny tax. If not us, who do you think will build our roads?
td
July 31st, 2012
10:34 pm
Old Timer
July 31st, 2012
10:29 pm
“I’m very glad I work from home, telecommuting full-time.”
And this is the real answer to our traffic problems. More then half the workers that get on the road every morning could telework. It is time for companies to wake up and governments to give incentives to do so.
How many of the Federal and state workers that drive downtown everyday could work from home?
Jm
July 31st, 2012
10:35 pm
TX
I live where I have
No income taxes
No traffic
Better weather
And a beach
Atl blows on most sensible metrics
Tiberius
State legislature will never pass a spending bill that relieves congestion in Atlanta
Enjoy the traffic
iggy
July 31st, 2012
10:37 pm
TSPLOST Referendum – 3-Atlanta – Ballot Issue
July 31, 2012 – 10:31PM ET
Georgia – 445 of 1077 Precincts Reporting – 41%
Name Votes Vote %
No 246,341 65%
Yes 131,745 35%
Getting close to the point of no return, if not already.
*FLUSH*
ank
July 31st, 2012
10:38 pm
kyle, what happens for the next 4 yrs? no changes, right. that doesnt seem like a good idea
Jm
July 31st, 2012
10:38 pm
Kyle 10:33
New list if there is one will be 90% same as old list
Love your car lane neighbors
They too love traffic
Atl
The city full of a bunch of maroons
ank
July 31st, 2012
10:39 pm
kyle, im curious why you think in 4 yrs, with this type of electorate, a tax of any kind might pass next go round
JamVet
July 31st, 2012
10:39 pm
BB, to your point why would I care about your conservatard caused gridlock problems?
But here’s to you forking over $100 a week to BP, Shell, etc to keep the gas guzzler filled.
And while I’m having my second cup of coffee, I’ll be thinking about you cons trying desperately to get across the river and to work in less than 55 minutes.
Not…
td
July 31st, 2012
10:39 pm
Jm
July 31st, 2012
10:35 pm
TX
The great state that just overwhelmingly about to send a full fledged Tea Party patriot to the US Senate. Love that state.
iggy
July 31st, 2012
10:40 pm
“I’m very glad I work from home, telecommuting full-time.”
Same here. Telecommuting is the answer. Zero drive time, less pollution, less road usage damage, much less stress having to interact dialy with cabbages spewing sewage from their pieholes, less gasoline usage…the list goes on and on.
oldfart
July 31st, 2012
10:40 pm
I assume you moved under a bridge out there Jm. Nice trolling.
Kyle Wingfield
July 31st, 2012
10:41 pm
Jm: Who — besides you — is whining?
Jm
July 31st, 2012
10:41 pm
Iggy
Yep
Atl is flushing itself down the toilet too
Numbers-R-US
July 31st, 2012
10:42 pm
This wasn’t about the list for Republicans. It was about the tax.
Fred ™
July 31st, 2012
10:43 pm
WOO HOO. Glad you are still up and posting Kyle. Just got home from a long day working the polls and I can’t wait to scroll back and read what all you meat heads have been saying about the elections
I can’t believe it. All this time I THOUGHT I was pretty up to date on politics and such but they went and redistricted me and I never knew. Took me out of the 4th District and put me in the 6th where i’m stuck with that dipstick Tom Price. That arrogant fool cares so little about his new fangled jerry mandered district that he didn’t even bother to campaign. i SO know that Cobb County snob is going to do anything for us here in Dekalb……..
Well let me read before I say anything else.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
July 31st, 2012
10:43 pm
Two odd points: AmVet complains earlier about conservative blogs degenerating into name calling, yet later uses the term “conservatard”.
And Jm getting so worked up about a vote that doesn’t concern him in the least.
Unless he’s a paving contractor now out of a paycheck.
Jm
July 31st, 2012
10:44 pm
Charlotte, Nashville, Dallas thank you for your no vote and appreciate the jobs for their city
Kyle, I’m not whining, I’m just point out Atlantan stupidity
And I know you whine when you’re trying to get down Peachtree during the holidays in buckhead, or during some random traffic jam that Atlanta always has, which is pretty much 24-7 now
Enjoy it.
Old Timer
July 31st, 2012
10:45 pm
How many of the Federal and state workers that drive downtown everyday could work from home?
My guess is about 75%. Notice what happens to traffic on federal holidays not observed by a lot of businesses. Traffic is cut just about in half. But the failure to adopt telecommuting is not solely the fault of CEOs. No, there are too many mid-level managers charged with supervising human beings but unwilling to do the work and planning required to handle telecommuting employees. And just about all of these managers have absolutely zero trust in their subordinates. Such supervisors exist in government as well as in private enterprise. My advice is not to hang your hat on telecommuting as a traffic solution.
KW
July 31st, 2012
10:45 pm
So when does this mythical narrowing to single digits supposed to occur? seems like the spread will remain huge, which should challenge the viewpoint of a lot of people. This is a wake up call.
iggy
July 31st, 2012
10:45 pm
http://www.ajc.com/news/tsplost-results-1483968.html
Check this link. Look at these numbers…Tsplost has been smashed!!!
Kyle Wingfield
July 31st, 2012
10:46 pm
ank @ 10:39: First, I’m not convinced it will take four years. There’s no statutory reason it should, but possibly political ones. Then again, there are political reasons for acting sooner than that.
Second, you have the leaders of the Atlanta Tea Party Patriots calling for, among other Plan B measures, higher gas taxes. This was not about “tax” vs. “no tax.” It was about “this list” vs. “not this list.” Anyone who doubts that will not, I hope, be in a position of working on Plan B — because if they are, Plan B will fail, too.
ank
July 31st, 2012
10:50 pm
but kyle, how many yrs did it take to get to this point!?! by my count, 4!
native
July 31st, 2012
10:50 pm
I voted yes, because it seemed like the only way to make things better. You know what? Things aren’t so bad intown, Have fun.
Jm
July 31st, 2012
10:50 pm
“higher gas taxes”
And why the f should the rest of the state pay a higher gas tax when certain parts already voted to pay for their infrastructure with tsplost
Higher gas tax is DOA
Brosephus™
July 31st, 2012
10:53 pm
How many of the Federal and state workers that drive downtown everyday could work from home?
My guess is about 75%. Notice what happens to traffic on federal holidays not observed by a lot of businesses. Traffic is cut just about in half.
The questions you need to ask yourself in response to your 75% estimate are:
#1 How much of that percentage does work that requires secure networks?
#2 How much extra are you willing to pay to have secure network connections installed in the homes of those telecommuters?
#3 How much do you entrust those workers to handle sensitive/classified information from their homes?
and so on, and on. Telecommuting sounds good on the fed level, and there is actually programs in place to identify and increase telecommuting options. There are many jobs, however, where the benefit of less travel might not be worth the investment for maintaining security.
http://www.telework.gov/
td
July 31st, 2012
10:55 pm
Kyle Wingfield
July 31st, 2012
10:46 pm
The problem Kyle will be to put together a “list” that will satisfy both Cobb, Gwinn, North Fulton as well as Dekalb, Atlanta and Clayton. The first three counties will never vote for more MARTA and the last three counties will not vote for anything that does not include at least 50% MARTA.
BW
July 31st, 2012
10:57 pm
Kyle
Yes I remember that column…I expected every other region to reject it but Atlanta….I could tell it was too polarizing of any issue in the last few days among all demographics to have a chance. Which regions would counties form that wouldn’t further exacerbate the ITP-OTP tensions? Obviously DeKalb and Atlanta want a better return on their penny for MARTA and as far as I can tell most of Cobb, north Fulton, and most of Gwinnett will not approve anything that smacks of shoring up MARTA as it exists currently. I don’t know what the final answer is but I don’t think this region’s politicians have any kind of spine to do what is necessary to provide a transparent and logical way forward. Someone mentioned that the fuel tax would need to be raised $0.25 a gallon to provide the same revenue as T-SPLOST (can’t completely vouch for that)…I don’t see that happening at least at that level but I can guarantee that if our leaders are serious about the problem it will have to be seriously discussed and gulp these Tea Partiers will actually have to put up a plan that doesn’t include depopulating the region.