NYT’s Keller gets it half-right on need to reform entitlements
In a column addressed to his fellow baby boomers (sorry, this Gen-Xer peeked anyway!) New York Times columnist Bill Keller says one way for his generation to shed its reputation of entitlement and selfishness is, well, to be less selfish about entitlements.
He refers to a study by the Democratic think tank Third Way that examines the tremendous growth of, as Keller puts it, the federal government’s “safety-net programs that provide a measure of economic stability for the aging and poor: Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, etc.” The growth of this spending, he and Third Way argue, is crowding out federal spending for “‘investments,’ which includes maintaining our national infrastructure, keeping our military equipped, helping assure that our work force is educated to a high standard, and underwriting the kind of basic scientific research that is too risky or long-term to attract private money.”
The answer, he suggests, is for liberals to embrace reforms of the entitlement programs. I agree with his conclusion, but there’s an important misperception to correct along the way.
Here’s how Keller summarizes Third Way’s findings:
In 1962, we were laying down the foundations of prosperity. About 32 cents of every federal dollar, excluding interest payments, was spent on investments, only 14 percent on entitlements. In the mid-70s the lines crossed. Today we spend less than 15 cents on investment and 46 cents on entitlements. And it gets worse. By 2030, when the last of us boomers have surged onto the Social Security rolls, entitlements will consume 61 cents of every federal dollar, starving our already neglected investment and leaving us, in the words of the study, with “a less-skilled work force, lower rates of job creation, and an infrastructure unfit for a 21st-century economy.”
Sounds pretty bleak for “investments,” huh?
But what these figures obscure is that spending on Third Way’s “investments” category — adjusted for inflation and population growth — has in fact increased significantly during the past 50 years.
How can that be?
Start with the fact that, in 1962, federal spending (see Table 8.4) minus net interest payments equaled 17.6 percent of gross domestic product, or GDP. In 2012, it’s expected to hit 22.9 percent of GDP. So federal spending as a share of the economy is higher today by almost one-third.
Then move on to the fact that GDP, adjusted for inflation, is nearly 4.5 times larger today: Annualized, it stood at $13.56 trillion in the second quarter of 2012 (the most recent data available) compared to $3.06 trillion in the same three months of 1962.
Finally, consider that our population has grown by only about 70 percent during the past half century: from 186.5 million to 314.4 million (note: the Census Bureau has not yet released its estimate for July 1, 2012, so I took the figure for a year earlier and applied the same growth rate the Census Bureau applied for 2010 to 2011; my number ought to be pretty close to the eventual Census estimate, or at least close enough for today’s exercise).
Run the numbers, including Third Way’s calculations of “investments” and “entitlements” as percentages of the federal budget, and here’s what you get:
Inflation-adjusted, per capita federal spending
So, while it’s true that entitlement spending has grown massively since JFK’s presidency — by more than 1,000 percent on a real per capita basis — it’s also true that real per capita spending on that group of “investments” has grown by 60 percent. Not too shabby. Viewed similarly, spending on everything else (besides net interest payments) has also soared by almost 150 percent.
To reiterate: I agree with Keller and Third Way that entitlement reform is desperately needed. And I join them in urging boomers, particularly those of the liberal persuasion, to be open to such changes. Where I part company with them is in the reason this needs to happen.
It’s not to spend more money elsewhere in the federal budget, but to free the economy from the burden of all excessive federal spending.
– By Kyle Wingfield
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Kyle Wingfield
July 31st, 2012
2:29 pm
TBG: I don’t know why your post got caught in the spam filter, but I’ve pushed it through.
Bruno @ 2:26: That one’s out of my hands.
Peadawg
July 31st, 2012
2:29 pm
I’m sure Kyle would looooove for Bookman to go on vacation more often and close his blog. Enjoy the hits this week!
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
July 31st, 2012
2:30 pm
Bruno, I was just reading that same article by Jeff Greenfield.
Obama should be worried if a lib like that doesn’t hold out much hope.
Piedmont South from North Georgia
July 31st, 2012
2:35 pm
stands for decibels
July 31st, 2012
2:02 pm
________
Those countries spending a lot per person seem to be doing well.
They all have universal health care. That means the costs of health care appear in the figures as money spent by the government.
Our health care figures are run through private payments or through the insurance companies and are not counties as govt. expenses.
Most be some other factors affecting a nation’s economy, other than govt. expenses per person. That’s a red herring.
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
July 31st, 2012
2:35 pm
You forget the one thing that is in Obama’s corner. His opponent.
mwuahahahahahahaha
Bruno
July 31st, 2012
2:36 pm
The thing is Romney’s just as bad if not worse than Obama. Whether it’s Obama or Romney, we the American people lose. Both the candidates are worthless and it’s sad that in a country as large as ours…these two ding dongs are who we have to choose from.
Peadawg–No argument from me regarding that charge. I highlighted the article only to say that in the end, people make their voting choices based on one or two critical factors. The Obama supporters are hoping that the “likeability” and “sensitivity” factors are what sway people, since Romney is neither likeable nor sensitive. But, I think most people are going to vote with their wallets in November. No matter how you slice it or dice it, Obama’s economic policies haven’t led to any tangible prosperity, and his Blame Bush shtick got old about 3 1/2 years ago.
Numbers-R-US
July 31st, 2012
2:38 pm
I’m hoping you’re a lady poster.
I wouldn’t date a lady that looked like me.
Peadawg
July 31st, 2012
2:39 pm
Bruno, Obama’s “likability” went away a long time ago for me.
Unless something drastic changes in the next couple of months to persuade me to vote for Romney or Obama, I’m writing in Hillary’s name.
Bruno
July 31st, 2012
2:40 pm
Bruno @ 2:26: That one’s out of my hands.
You mean changing the auto-censor, or s-p-i-c-i-n-g things up around here?? My personal take is that you are a serious journalist and truly a nice person, such that you don’t wish to offend anyone by writing inflammatory headlines and columns. My suggestion is to take a page from Jay’s playbook and step on a few toes.
Keep Up the Good Fight!
July 31st, 2012
2:40 pm
The Obama supporters are hoping that the “likeability” and “sensitivity” factors are what sway people, since Romney is neither likeable nor sensitive
1 is false but I agree about Romney.
As to Obama’s economic policies, economists agree that his stimulus worked. We would have more prosperity now if not for a Republican party that does not care about the country only defeating Obama.
td
July 31st, 2012
2:41 pm
Will someone please post the link to the Greenfield article? I can not find it.
St Simons - he-ne-ha
July 31st, 2012
2:43 pm
I like Huntsman. If you guys would’ve nominated him, we’d be in real
trouble right now with 90-whatever days to go.
Peadawg
July 31st, 2012
2:44 pm
Oh yeah…and I’ll definitely be voting every incumbent out that I possibly can in November.
Jerome Horwitz
July 31st, 2012
2:45 pm
Bruno/TBG – Used to spend a week in Wildwood every summer in the 60’s and 70’s. Remember Hunt’s Pier and the great coaster that went over the ocean? And Graf’s Restaurant. You guys have me re-playing the early years. And don’t forget the fudge!
Bruno
July 31st, 2012
2:46 pm
You forget the one thing that is in Obama’s corner. His opponent.
Just my gambler’s hunch, Finn, but I think the average American is ready and willing to give someone else a chance right now. Obama’s spending spree has only gotten us further in the hole. I strongly believe that people understand that in a deeply intuitive way. As I’ve stated many times, Romney might have been my third choice (at best) among the Republican candidates. His negatives are extremely high, but in the end it comes down to the economy. Polls show that more people trust Romney than Obama to help right our ship.
Bruno
July 31st, 2012
2:49 pm
As to Obama’s economic policies, economists agree that his stimulus worked.
I haven’t seen any specific polls, but my strong feeling is that the average American doesn’t give a rat’s ass what economists think.
In the end, all politics is local. People have been hurting for nearly 5 years now, and are looking for a change in leadership, IMO.
iggy
July 31st, 2012
2:49 pm
Greenfield article.
http://news.yahoo.com/add-it-up–the-prediction-models-look-dismal-for-obama–can-he-still-win-.html
Some people are stupid
July 31st, 2012
2:50 pm
I’m trying to figure out for the life of me how it’s Obama’s spending spree when all spending bills originate in the house.
Bruno
July 31st, 2012
2:50 pm
td @ 2:41:
http://news.yahoo.com/add-it-up–the-prediction-models-look-dismal-for-obama–can-he-still-win-.html
td
July 31st, 2012
2:50 pm
iggy
July 31st, 2012
2:49 pm
Thank you.
iggy
July 31st, 2012
2:51 pm
“As to Obama’s economic policies, economists agree that his stimulus worked.”
8% or higher unemployment? Real number much higher! Bush unemployment number was at 5% or below…where are the liberal cries, where is Nasty Pelosi?
*crickets*
iggy
July 31st, 2012
2:52 pm
yw my friend!
Peadawg
July 31st, 2012
2:52 pm
“I’m trying to figure out for the life of me how it’s Obama’s spending spree when all spending bills originate in the house.
B/c he’s the President and it’s his final signature on the bill. And he did have control of the Senate and House for the 1st two years of his term.
Bruno
July 31st, 2012
2:54 pm
I’m trying to figure out for the life of me how it’s Obama’s spending spree when all spending bills originate in the house.
Some–Rightly or wrongly, spending levels along with the state of the economy are tied around the President’s neck. As I’ve argued for years on these blogs, there is a much stronger correlation between the state of our economy and who controls Congress than to who occupies the White House.
http://uspolitics.about.com/od/usgovernment/l/bl_party_division_2.htm
stands for decibels
July 31st, 2012
2:54 pm
from Greenfield’s article:
the “sample size,” which totals about twenty or so Presidential elections since most of these measurements were first made, is too small.
Yep. Which is why I don’t much sweat stuff like “no guy ever won with unemployment above this figure or confidence below that figure.”
I sweat the state by state polling, which is amalgamated over at 538 and which has shown an uphill battle for Romney pretty consistently throughout the post-primary season.
I also sweat, a bit less, the report on folks who have something to wager on the race, so I less-compulsively check Intrade, which still has Obama with a 57% chance of being re-elected.
Keep Up the Good Fight!
July 31st, 2012
2:55 pm
bruno, not going to argue your “feelings”. I disagree, suffice to say.
Some people are stupid
July 31st, 2012
2:56 pm
Peadawg-
But there is a projected 1.2 trillion dollar deficit for this year, which is under a republican house. Wouldn’t it make more sense to blame congress for spending as opposed to the president. I don’t think he has line item veto powers on a budget, and by not signing, he effectively shuts the government down.
Skip
July 31st, 2012
2:56 pm
Iggy, Bush left us with a Dow around 6000. Cheers for Obama?
That Black guy
July 31st, 2012
2:57 pm
Bruno
July 31st, 2012
2:26 pm
Kyle, what happened to my reply to Bruno?
TBG–A lot of my posts get swallowed here.
___________________________________
it got pushed through at 2:15.
That Black guy
July 31st, 2012
3:00 pm
Peadawg
July 31st, 2012
2:28 pm
Bruno
July 31st, 2012
2:23 pm
The thing is Romney’s just as bad if not worse than Obama. Whether it’s Obama or Romney, we the American people lose. Both the candidates are worthless and it’s sad that in a country as large as ours…these two ding dongs are who we have to choose from.
_________________________________________________________
That’s kinda why I think the whole thing is rigged.
How else do you explain a Dukakis (sp?),Dole, Gore, Kerry, McCain, Palin, Newt, Romney unless you want to guarentee the outcome?
Bruno
July 31st, 2012
3:00 pm
Used to spend a week in Wildwood every summer in the 60’s and 70’s. Remember Hunt’s Pier and the great coaster that went over the ocean? And Graf’s Restaurant. You guys have me re-playing the early years. And don’t forget the fudge!
Jerome–My family was poor, so we only made it to the shore every few years. We usually went to Brigantine, and stayed at the old Harry’s Motel. I remember our dad used to drop half of us off down the street before he checked in, so that we could get by with a two-bedroom. Somehow we didn’t mind 7 of us crammed into those little efficiencies. One of the big highlights was a trampoline place nearby.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
July 31st, 2012
3:01 pm
“I’m trying to figure out for the life of me how it’s Obama’s spending spree when all spending bills originate in the house.”
Kinda forget that 4 year abomination known as “Speaker Pelosi” did ya?
Jefferson
July 31st, 2012
3:02 pm
Congress is the main problems, full of yard birds.
Peadawg
July 31st, 2012
3:03 pm
“But there is a projected 1.2 trillion dollar deficit for this year”
Yup and the deficit has decreased the past couple of years if I’m not mistaken. It was about $1.6 trillion when the Democrats controlled everything.
That Black guy
July 31st, 2012
3:06 pm
Bruno
July 31st, 2012
1:51 pm
Ah, the good old days…… But you can bet I’m going to load up on some Fralinger’s Salt Water Taffy. Best in the world.
_________________________________________________________________________
You are right about AC. I was too young to remember all that. Plus, being from Port Norris, Woodbine (Lake Nummy), Cape May, and Wildwood were closer, so that’s where we went.
We also had Union Lake in Millville and Parvin State Park.
AC was way down on the list.
Too bad it’s not Oct, you could take her to Brigintine Castle (horror house).
The first time I’ve seen someone punch a character in a scary house was there.
td
July 31st, 2012
3:07 pm
Bruno
July 31st, 2012
2:50 pm
Thank you. It was a very interesting read and I can not believe a so called MSM person would actually be willing to lay it all out in one article.
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
July 31st, 2012
3:09 pm
Bruno wrote: Just my gambler’s hunch, Finn,
Bruno, your gamblers hunch doesn’t jibe with the Vegas betting odds which place Obama as an odds on favorite (Mitt is 2:1)
So, are we going to go by your gut instinct or the instinct of people who make a living laying odds?
Bruno
July 31st, 2012
3:10 pm
Oh, If you do hit Wildwood, Gino’s Pizza for sausage and peppers. On Moreys Pier. MMMMMMMMMM!
My pizza place of choice is Two Brothers on the White Horse Pike. Another good one on the Black Horse Pike near Williamstown. My GF is a vegetarian, so we’ll probably stick to mushroom pizza. I can’t wait to sink my teeth into an authentic South Jersey cheesesteak. Haven’t found anything close here in GA, even though they all claim to have “Philly Cheesesteaks”.
Do you plan to see family while there?
As I mentioned before, the trip is a combination vacation/family reunion. My sis booked us a suite at the Borgata, so we plan to spend a few days there. Big family blowout is on Friday night. I’ve been warning my girl for weeks now that I’m actually the quiet one in the family. She gets a scared look in her eyes every time I say that.
We’re also going to visit my original hometown in Doylestown, PA for a day. I’m going to see if I can talk my way into my old house to take a look around. I’m giving myself a 50-50 chance on that one.
Jose
July 31st, 2012
3:12 pm
SPEAKER PE-LOUSY
4 years of the most debt accumulated under consecutive congresses in the history of the US
2007-2010
all democratically controlled
watch your wallets
That Black guy
July 31st, 2012
3:12 pm
Jerome Horwitz
July 31st, 2012
2:45 pm
Bruno/TBG – Used to spend a week in Wildwood every summer in the 60’s and 70’s. Remember Hunt’s Pier and the great coaster that went over the ocean? And Graf’s Restaurant. You guys have me re-playing the early years. And don’t forget the fudge!
__________________________________________________________________________
Jerome, you are right. How could I forget the fudge?
Where are you from?
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
July 31st, 2012
3:13 pm
“Bush left us with a Dow around 6000. Cheers for Obama?”
If the stock market had any significant relationship to the overall health of our economy, maybe, provided you can supply specific legislation he passed and signed into law which allowed that to occur.
However, since the stock market has no significant relationship to the overall health of our economy, and hasn’t for decades, no cheers for Obama for that feat.
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
July 31st, 2012
3:13 pm
I can not believe a so called MSM person would actually be willing to lay it all out in one article
Not all news outlets are like your Fox News which is always one-sided. Always good news for Republicans and bad news for Democrats.
Other networks have a spine.
Kyle Wingfield
July 31st, 2012
3:16 pm
Bruno @ 2:40: The language filter.
As for the other: I’m quite happy with the way my blog is going. Intentionally stepping on toes, rather than simply writing what I think and letting the chips fall where they may, is not on my to-do list.
td
July 31st, 2012
3:16 pm
Brother Finn,
Since you have never watched Fox then how do you know what they report in the news?
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
July 31st, 2012
3:17 pm
“I can’t wait to sink my teeth into an authentic South Jersey cheesesteak. Haven’t found anything close here in GA, even though they all claim to have “Philly Cheesesteaks”.
Used to be a place in Roswell that actually brought in Philly-baked rolls every week (as everyone knows, the secret to a great cheesesteak is the roll), and had a superior cut of meat, but he closed up shop about 4 years ago.
I cried.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
July 31st, 2012
3:19 pm
“Not all news outlets are like your Fox News which is always one-sided. Always good news for Republicans and bad news for Democrats.”
Someone either doesn’t actually watch the “news” portion of Fox News, or doesn’t understand “fair and balanced coverage”.
Bruno
July 31st, 2012
3:19 pm
Iggy, Bush left us with a Dow around 6000. Cheers for Obama?
Skip–I think most people are intelligent enough to understand that the housing/banking collapse wasn’t the work of one man. And BTW, the Dow hit bottom in March, 2009 at around 6700. After telling people to sell, sell, sell for the previous two years on the old Woman to Woman blog, I (correctly) predicted the bottom in March and started urging everyone to buy, buy, buy.
iggy
July 31st, 2012
3:22 pm
“I can’t wait to sink my teeth into an authentic South Jersey cheesesteak. Haven’t found anything close here in GA, even though they all claim to have “Philly Cheesesteaks”.
Try The Mad Italian, Savoy Drive. Never had a philly cheesesteak from philly but the Mad Italian cheesesteak is pretty delicious.
Bruno
July 31st, 2012
3:23 pm
As for the other: I’m quite happy with the way my blog is going. Intentionally stepping on toes, rather than simply writing what I think and letting the chips fall where they may, is not on my to-do list.
For better or for worse, I’ll be here to support you, Kyle. I’ll bring the s-p-i-c-e for you. Just don’t get mad if I pick on you on occasion. I’m often more harsh on the Cons than I am on the Libs.
Bruno
July 31st, 2012
3:24 pm
Gotta run out and cast my “No” vote for T-SPLOST and casino gambling.
Catch you all in a while.