NYT’s Keller gets it half-right on need to reform entitlements
In a column addressed to his fellow baby boomers (sorry, this Gen-Xer peeked anyway!) New York Times columnist Bill Keller says one way for his generation to shed its reputation of entitlement and selfishness is, well, to be less selfish about entitlements.
He refers to a study by the Democratic think tank Third Way that examines the tremendous growth of, as Keller puts it, the federal government’s “safety-net programs that provide a measure of economic stability for the aging and poor: Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, etc.” The growth of this spending, he and Third Way argue, is crowding out federal spending for “‘investments,’ which includes maintaining our national infrastructure, keeping our military equipped, helping assure that our work force is educated to a high standard, and underwriting the kind of basic scientific research that is too risky or long-term to attract private money.”
The answer, he suggests, is for liberals to embrace reforms of the entitlement programs. I agree with his conclusion, but there’s an important misperception to correct along the way.
Here’s how Keller summarizes Third Way’s findings:
In 1962, we were laying down the foundations of prosperity. About 32 cents of every federal dollar, excluding interest payments, was spent on investments, only 14 percent on entitlements. In the mid-70s the lines crossed. Today we spend less than 15 cents on investment and 46 cents on entitlements. And it gets worse. By 2030, when the last of us boomers have surged onto the Social Security rolls, entitlements will consume 61 cents of every federal dollar, starving our already neglected investment and leaving us, in the words of the study, with “a less-skilled work force, lower rates of job creation, and an infrastructure unfit for a 21st-century economy.”
Sounds pretty bleak for “investments,” huh?
But what these figures obscure is that spending on Third Way’s “investments” category — adjusted for inflation and population growth — has in fact increased significantly during the past 50 years.
How can that be?
Start with the fact that, in 1962, federal spending (see Table 8.4) minus net interest payments equaled 17.6 percent of gross domestic product, or GDP. In 2012, it’s expected to hit 22.9 percent of GDP. So federal spending as a share of the economy is higher today by almost one-third.
Then move on to the fact that GDP, adjusted for inflation, is nearly 4.5 times larger today: Annualized, it stood at $13.56 trillion in the second quarter of 2012 (the most recent data available) compared to $3.06 trillion in the same three months of 1962.
Finally, consider that our population has grown by only about 70 percent during the past half century: from 186.5 million to 314.4 million (note: the Census Bureau has not yet released its estimate for July 1, 2012, so I took the figure for a year earlier and applied the same growth rate the Census Bureau applied for 2010 to 2011; my number ought to be pretty close to the eventual Census estimate, or at least close enough for today’s exercise).
Run the numbers, including Third Way’s calculations of “investments” and “entitlements” as percentages of the federal budget, and here’s what you get:
Inflation-adjusted, per capita federal spending
So, while it’s true that entitlement spending has grown massively since JFK’s presidency — by more than 1,000 percent on a real per capita basis — it’s also true that real per capita spending on that group of “investments” has grown by 60 percent. Not too shabby. Viewed similarly, spending on everything else (besides net interest payments) has also soared by almost 150 percent.
To reiterate: I agree with Keller and Third Way that entitlement reform is desperately needed. And I join them in urging boomers, particularly those of the liberal persuasion, to be open to such changes. Where I part company with them is in the reason this needs to happen.
It’s not to spend more money elsewhere in the federal budget, but to free the economy from the burden of all excessive federal spending.
– By Kyle Wingfield
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Keep Up the Good Fight!
July 31st, 2012
1:30 pm
Mmmmm… Tibby. You do realize that the reference was to Dick Cheney. Sorry to disappoint you.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
July 31st, 2012
1:34 pm
IR/YW, let’s keep the blog names accurate in accordance with Kyle’s new rules, OK?
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
July 31st, 2012
1:36 pm
KUTGF, you know, and I know, that wasn’t the case, so stop pretending that it was.
Normal Free...Pro Human Rights Thug...And liking it!
July 31st, 2012
1:37 pm
Bruno
July 31st, 2012
1:28 pm
Bruno,
“In checking the web, this site quotes a figure of 45% of all the world’s pharmaceuticals consumed here. Still an astronomical figure considering we make up only 5% of the world’s population.”
Maybe, just maybe, America has become so screwed up, it takes lots of drugs to make sense of it all…
iggy
July 31st, 2012
1:39 pm
Any early numbers on TSplat?
Keep Up the Good Fight!
July 31st, 2012
1:40 pm
Oy vey, the paranoia and delusions.
Skip
July 31st, 2012
1:40 pm
Rafe, I’n not voting for Romney, before you put too much into that I voted for Bush twice.Then again I did vote for Ross. I may be one of the true independents here.
JDW
July 31st, 2012
1:41 pm
@Tiberius…”I’ll make certain he does, KUTGF”
Little cheese with that whine…son
Bruno
July 31st, 2012
1:41 pm
According to this WHO website, the US consumed 52% of the world’s pharmaceuticals in 2000.
http://apps.who.int/medicinedocs/en/d/Js6160e/6.html
Assuming that is true–How much of that do you blame on the US being only one of two nations on the planet that permits directly marketing of prescription drugs to end users?
I’m sure that’s a big factor, stands. I don’t have a firm figure, but it seems like 1 out of every 5 commercials on TV is for some drug, whether prescription form or OTC. Over time, the subliminal message is “Have a problem, take a drug.” We need a new health paradigm in our country.
That Black guy
July 31st, 2012
1:42 pm
Bruno
July 31st, 2012
1:12 pm
Special “howdy” to That Black Guy and Erwin’s cat. Great to see you guys here.
_______________________________________________________________
Bruno, how’s it going Homie. When you take PB “up top” make sure you ge her an italian Icee. Also, do you plan to hit Wildwood/Cape May? The piers and beaches have been voted top 10 in the country.
http://www.travelchannel.com/interests/beaches/articles/cape-may-new-jersey
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
July 31st, 2012
1:45 pm
IR/YW, let’s keep the blog names accurate in accordance with Kyle’s new rules, OK?
Dear Blog Nanny- When someone refers to me as I Whine, I’ll call them any name I like, as though it’s any of your business.
Bruno
July 31st, 2012
1:46 pm
Maybe, just maybe, America has become so screwed up, it takes lots of drugs to make sense of it all…
Brother Normal!!
If you notice, I said nothing about natural herbs…..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RNqv85coyTw
MC
July 31st, 2012
1:46 pm
What that figure tells us is that we are a nation of hypachondriacs
Drudge
July 31st, 2012
1:48 pm
Lord – the liberal broken record tries again and again to argue that 2+2=7. It’s right there, in plain language. Entitlement spending up 1000%, investment up 60%… We will be a country full of food stamp dummies waiting on our gubment check.
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
July 31st, 2012
1:49 pm
Just reading some of the liberal comments on this blog today makes that 45% number seem awfully low.
td
July 31st, 2012
1:50 pm
Tiberius – pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
I am not a regular on the other blog and am a conservative and like what you have to say most of the time on the subject matter.
This PC hall monitor BS routine of your lately is getting old. You really need to take a chill pill and allow Kyle to monitor his own blog for people that are breaking the rules and stop being the little tattle tale brat that I would have taken out behind the school after class for acting like you do.
Bruno
July 31st, 2012
1:51 pm
Also, do you plan to hit Wildwood/Cape May? The piers and beaches have been voted top 10 in the country.
I’m thinking strongly about taking her to Wildwood for a night. The AC boardwalk kinda went downhill ever since the casinos moved in in the late 70s. You’re too young to remember, but there used to be some great, great places on the AC boardwalk as recently as the early 70s. FAO Schwartz had a cool store display with life sized stuffed animals such as giraffes and monkeys. Madame Tussaud’s had a wax museum, and the three main piers were kicking. My personal favorite was a little (free) aquarium on Middle Pier. Now, there are only crappy T-shirt shops.
Ah, the good old days…… But you can bet I’m going to load up on some Fralinger’s Salt Water Taffy. Best in the world.
Normal Free...Pro Human Rights Thug...And liking it!
July 31st, 2012
1:51 pm
Bruno
July 31st, 2012
1:46 pm
stands for decibels
July 31st, 2012
1:52 pm
Bruno, thanks for those cites. One thing to keep in mind, though, is that both the WHO and MDJunction are citing *sales* of drugs, not actual use.
Given that we are likely paying a boatload more for the privilege of being over-medicated than other citizens of industrialized nations, we can probably assume that our share, while still the lion’s, probably isn’t quite so crazy/out-of-kilter as those raw sales figures would indicate.
Kyle Wingfield
July 31st, 2012
1:52 pm
Let me remind everyone who might not visit this blog often that, because name-calling involving blog handles has been problematic here, each person is expected to address other commenters by the blog handles they use.
Keep Up the Good Fight!
July 31st, 2012
1:54 pm
IR/YW — That’s was my fault. I did not have your name before me and was working from recollection. That’s the impression its made in my mind… which is indeed sad.
Bruno
July 31st, 2012
1:58 pm
This PC hall monitor BS routine of your lately is getting old. You really need to take a chill pill and allow Kyle to monitor his own blog for people that are breaking the rules and stop being the little tattle tale brat that I would have taken out behind the school after class for acting like you do.
td–Overall I agree with you, but also understand Ti’s sensitivity to references which incorporate someone’s “real name”, as they may have revealed in the past. I’ve had a few nutballs track me down because they didn’t like what I said on the blog. In case you didn’t notice, some people take this stuff waaaay too seriously.
td
July 31st, 2012
2:00 pm
Kyle Wingfield
July 31st, 2012
1:52 pm
I recommend that you consider a new rule:
Constant and incessant whining about what other bloggers are saying will result in being banned.
This type of behavior daily make a lot of peoples stomachs turn and reduces the quality of the post on your blog. It also is a primer to start the types of other behaviors that you want to do away with.
That Black guy
July 31st, 2012
2:01 pm
Tiberius, KUTGF,
In the words of the recently departed Rodney King ” Can’t we all just…HEY what are you going to do with that night stick?”
stands for decibels
July 31st, 2012
2:02 pm
Entitlement spending up 1000%, investment up 60%…
Before anyone freaks out over how much we spent per capita now vs. 1962, it might be helpful to see how we compare to other industrialized nations, currently.
Keep Up the Good Fight!
July 31st, 2012
2:02 pm
TBG, now that was funny.
sad, but funny.
md
July 31st, 2012
2:03 pm
“we consume about 75% of all pharmaceutical drugs.”
The problem that I see with that is the use of drugs in combinations. FDA testing does not include all the combinations and the results thereof.
WE are the guinea pigs……….
Bruno
July 31st, 2012
2:04 pm
Lowell George also was concerned about our nation’s obesity problem all the way back in 1976:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VDp3Grz28mE&feature=related
We lost a great, great talent when Lowell passed away in 1979. The official cause of death was heart failure, but drugs played a large part in that.
td
July 31st, 2012
2:07 pm
Bruno
July 31st, 2012
1:58 pm
I understand and agree that there are some real nuts on these blogs but dang man let Kyle be the monitor and if he/she believes someone is going out of bounds then click the “report this comment” button, email or PM on Kyle’s FB page.
Like I said, when it comes to subject matter I am in agreement most of the time but going through 10 to 20 posts because of one dumb comment about rules stops the free flow of ideas and does nothing more then turns people off from posting.
Kamchak ~ Thug from the Steppes
July 31st, 2012
2:08 pm
Some of the same one’s here that crapped all over CT’s place are now whining about their own sandbox.
Too funny!
td
July 31st, 2012
2:08 pm
stands for decibels
July 31st, 2012
2:02 pm
And you are willing for us to become Greece, Spain or the former USSSR in the next 10 years?
Bruno
July 31st, 2012
2:11 pm
Anyone here notice how sensitive our bodies are to gravity as we age?? That big chest we enjoy in our youth becomes a pot belly. Our hair stops growing on top of our heads, and starts coming out of our ears and noses. Damn that gravity.
Kyle Wingfield
July 31st, 2012
2:12 pm
td @ 2:00: As I’ve said before, if someone wants to complain about a comment, I prefer they do so by emailing me.
stands for decibels
July 31st, 2012
2:14 pm
And you are willing for us to become Greece, Spain or the former USSSR in the next 10 years?
I’ve no idea how that relates to the chart I’d linked.
That Black guy
July 31st, 2012
2:15 pm
Bruno
July 31st, 2012
1:51 pm
Ah, the good old days…… But you can bet I’m going to load up on some Fralinger’s Salt Water Taffy. Best in the world.
_________________________________________________________________________
You are right about AC. I was too young to remember all that. Plus, being from Port Norris, Woodbine (Lake Nummy), Cape May, and Wildwood were closer, so that’s where we went.
Saltwater Taffy. I can feel my fillings being pulled out just thinking about it.
Oh, If you do hit Wildwood, Gino’s Pizza for sausage and peppers. On Moreys Pier. MMMMMMMMMM!
Do you plan to see family while there?
Keep Up the Good Fight!
July 31st, 2012
2:17 pm
Bruno, more simplified: Gravity sucks!
St Simons - he-ne-ha
July 31st, 2012
2:17 pm
Tib – As would I, but I want to see 2 years of cuts FIRST, and then I’ll sit down and talk about increases in revenue.
OK, now we’re cookin with gas, we’re compromising.
Let me try adding a caveat, too.
I want to see hoarded wealth taxed at 20% for those same 2 years
and offshore rat-holes confiscated, ’cause they aint creatin not even
one jerb, so it wouldn’t be ‘punishin the jerb creators’
Good. You da man. Your Che Guevara beret is in the mail dude.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
July 31st, 2012
2:19 pm
“When someone refers to me as I Whine, I’ll call them any name I like, as though it’s any of your business.”
Your funeral, son.
Skip
July 31st, 2012
2:19 pm
How bout those metro housing prices.
Jefferson
July 31st, 2012
2:20 pm
Fund the system.
That Black guy
July 31st, 2012
2:21 pm
Kyle, what happened to my reply to Bruno?
Numbers-R-US
July 31st, 2012
2:21 pm
Damn that gravity.
Speak for yourself.
Bruno
July 31st, 2012
2:23 pm
Here’s an interesting yahoo article which echos my sentiment about why Obama faces an uphill battle:
http://news.yahoo.com/add-it-up–the-prediction-models-look-dismal-for-obama–can-he-still-win-.html
From the article:
“If President Barack Obama is to win, he is going to have to overcome a set of numbers that no incumbent President, or incumbent party, has ever managed to surmount.
The jobless rate has been stuck at just above 8 per cent for months; you have to go back to 1936 to find a President re-elected with a higher unemployment rate. And in Franklin D. Roosevelt’s case, it was a far better number than he had inherited. Plus, growth was booming.
Today, real growth is at 1.5 per cent. In the economic forecasting models, this portends what even the liberal arts majors have been predicting: a very close election.
The core question for many voters—“Are you generally satisfied with the country’s direction, or has the U.S. gone off on the wrong track”—gets a 32.7-60.7 negative answer, according to the RealClearPolitics average. Generally, an incumbent party needs to have at least a 35% positive response to this question to win the election, says the Gallup Organization.
The consumer confidence level is now about 60 per cent. No incumbent party has ever kept the White House with a number anything like that. (It was slightly higher, at 65 per cent, in 1980 when Carter lost in a landslide.)”
md
July 31st, 2012
2:24 pm
Well, one would think both sides would see the wisdom of bringing the 2 trillion corps have overseas back here at 0% tax……but one group can’t or won’t see that wisdom.
Either way, we would be getting 0%……..but with the first scenario, we would have the benefit of an extra 2 T in our system……..generating much needed capital AND other taxes.
JDW
July 31st, 2012
2:25 pm
@That Black Guy…”Can’t we all just…HEY what are you going to do with that night stick?””
Now thats funny
That Black guy
July 31st, 2012
2:25 pm
Keep Up the Good Fight!
July 31st, 2012
2:02 pm
TBG, now that was funny. sad, but funny.
_______________________________________
I know. I’ve got issues.
Good thing there’s a pill for that.
Bruno
July 31st, 2012
2:26 pm
Kyle, what happened to my reply to Bruno?
TBG–A lot of my posts get swallowed here. I’m guessing that Kyle needs to tweak the auto-censor. For example, the word s-p-i-c-e seems to be a no-no. I’m guessing that the first 4 letters of that word are deemed offensive.
Kyle–Can you reprogram the censor to allow s-p-i-c-e, as in “You need to s-p-i-c-e things up here in order to increase your blog hits.” ?? Thanks.
JDW
July 31st, 2012
2:28 pm
@SFD…”Before anyone freaks out over how much we spent per capita now vs. 1962, it might be helpful to see how we compare to other industrialized nations, currently.”
There you go again, confusing the “burden of all excessive federal spending” crowd with actual facts.
Bruno
July 31st, 2012
2:28 pm
Numbers-R-US @ 2:21– I’m hoping you’re a lady poster.
Peadawg
July 31st, 2012
2:28 pm
Bruno
July 31st, 2012
2:23 pm
The thing is Romney’s just as bad if not worse than Obama. Whether it’s Obama or Romney, we the American people lose. Both the candidates are worthless and it’s sad that in a country as large as ours…these two ding dongs are who we have to choose from.