NYT’s Keller gets it half-right on need to reform entitlements
In a column addressed to his fellow baby boomers (sorry, this Gen-Xer peeked anyway!) New York Times columnist Bill Keller says one way for his generation to shed its reputation of entitlement and selfishness is, well, to be less selfish about entitlements.
He refers to a study by the Democratic think tank Third Way that examines the tremendous growth of, as Keller puts it, the federal government’s “safety-net programs that provide a measure of economic stability for the aging and poor: Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, etc.” The growth of this spending, he and Third Way argue, is crowding out federal spending for “‘investments,’ which includes maintaining our national infrastructure, keeping our military equipped, helping assure that our work force is educated to a high standard, and underwriting the kind of basic scientific research that is too risky or long-term to attract private money.”
The answer, he suggests, is for liberals to embrace reforms of the entitlement programs. I agree with his conclusion, but there’s an important misperception to correct along the way.
Here’s how Keller summarizes Third Way’s findings:
In 1962, we were laying down the foundations of prosperity. About 32 cents of every federal dollar, excluding interest payments, was spent on investments, only 14 percent on entitlements. In the mid-70s the lines crossed. Today we spend less than 15 cents on investment and 46 cents on entitlements. And it gets worse. By 2030, when the last of us boomers have surged onto the Social Security rolls, entitlements will consume 61 cents of every federal dollar, starving our already neglected investment and leaving us, in the words of the study, with “a less-skilled work force, lower rates of job creation, and an infrastructure unfit for a 21st-century economy.”
Sounds pretty bleak for “investments,” huh?
But what these figures obscure is that spending on Third Way’s “investments” category — adjusted for inflation and population growth — has in fact increased significantly during the past 50 years.
How can that be?
Start with the fact that, in 1962, federal spending (see Table 8.4) minus net interest payments equaled 17.6 percent of gross domestic product, or GDP. In 2012, it’s expected to hit 22.9 percent of GDP. So federal spending as a share of the economy is higher today by almost one-third.
Then move on to the fact that GDP, adjusted for inflation, is nearly 4.5 times larger today: Annualized, it stood at $13.56 trillion in the second quarter of 2012 (the most recent data available) compared to $3.06 trillion in the same three months of 1962.
Finally, consider that our population has grown by only about 70 percent during the past half century: from 186.5 million to 314.4 million (note: the Census Bureau has not yet released its estimate for July 1, 2012, so I took the figure for a year earlier and applied the same growth rate the Census Bureau applied for 2010 to 2011; my number ought to be pretty close to the eventual Census estimate, or at least close enough for today’s exercise).
Run the numbers, including Third Way’s calculations of “investments” and “entitlements” as percentages of the federal budget, and here’s what you get:
Inflation-adjusted, per capita federal spending
So, while it’s true that entitlement spending has grown massively since JFK’s presidency — by more than 1,000 percent on a real per capita basis — it’s also true that real per capita spending on that group of “investments” has grown by 60 percent. Not too shabby. Viewed similarly, spending on everything else (besides net interest payments) has also soared by almost 150 percent.
To reiterate: I agree with Keller and Third Way that entitlement reform is desperately needed. And I join them in urging boomers, particularly those of the liberal persuasion, to be open to such changes. Where I part company with them is in the reason this needs to happen.
It’s not to spend more money elsewhere in the federal budget, but to free the economy from the burden of all excessive federal spending.
– By Kyle Wingfield
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Piedmont South from North Georgia
July 31st, 2012
12:07 pm
Finn McCool
_____
Why not shut them down in all of Europe and in Japan. And in Afghanstan.
I think we would survive.
And we could increase the money we spend on education, training, and infrastructure.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
July 31st, 2012
12:09 pm
I guess JDW needs to bone up on his reading comprehension skills again, as the operative words “to any degree” doesn’t not equate to “drop in the bucket”
Piedmont South from North Georgia
July 31st, 2012
12:11 pm
Half of India is without power. That ought to cut down their production and help our trade deficit for a while.
stands for decibels
July 31st, 2012
12:14 pm
What do we have to fear from Italy?
hmm… besides Silvio Berlusconi’s rapacious libido and overpriced bubbly water? let me think…
md
July 31st, 2012
12:14 pm
“The red States opting out will give us the public option.
That is the end game on health care.”
Only if the dems ever get the numbers again……I wouldn’t count on that in either direction for some time to come.
JDW
July 31st, 2012
12:15 pm
@Tiberius…”I guess JDW needs to bone up on his reading comprehension skills again, as the operative words “to any degree” doesn’t not equate to “drop in the bucket””
Having touble with facts again I see…you pontificate, I point out the facts then you blather…yep same old stuff.
stands for decibels
July 31st, 2012
12:17 pm
Half of India is without power.
Which will undoubtedly lead to untold tragedy, and which really shouldn’t be joked about, actually.
/blog nanny
That Black guy
July 31st, 2012
12:19 pm
Normal Free…Pro Human Rights Thug…And liking it!
July 31st, 2012
11:22 am
Kyle Wingfield
July 31st, 2012
10:23 am
Ever wonder why Jay has more hits than you?
________________________________________________________
How do you know how many hits Jay or Kyle gets? “Hits” equal “page views” not comments.
md
July 31st, 2012
12:22 pm
“What do we have to fear from Italy?”
What a silly question…….we don’t have bases IN problem countries, we have bases AROUND problem countries.
Piedmont South from North Georgia
July 31st, 2012
12:24 pm
stands
______
I was not joking.
independent thinker
July 31st, 2012
12:24 pm
Kyle – As your wonder boy said in Israel employers there have prospered with less of a health care burden than in the US resulting in health care costs being 8% of GDP vs. 18% in the US and it is controlled by the government. Everyone pays and the rich pay higher premiums. The government controls provider income, and they have better care. However over here with an inferior and less efficient system, Mr. Romney wants to cut Obamacare and federal spending on Medicare and Medicaid. He cannot fathom why the Israeli system costs so much less. It must be that the Israelis are just culturally more skilled and much smarter than the US or the Arabs.
fair and balanced
July 31st, 2012
12:27 pm
Obama just figured out how to end outsourcing of call centers to India -cut their power.
fair and balanced
July 31st, 2012
12:27 pm
Obama just figured out how to end outsourcing of call centers to India -cut their power.
fair and balanced
July 31st, 2012
12:27 pm
Obama just figured out how to end outsourcing of call centers to India -cut their power.
fair and balanced
July 31st, 2012
12:27 pm
Obama just figured out how to end outsourcing of call centers to India -cut their power.
That Black guy
July 31st, 2012
12:34 pm
Not Blind
July 31st, 2012
12:00 pm
All these responses are a perfect illustration how the political parties have done an excellent job of dividing the citizenry and deflecting scrutiny from the real enemy which is the political parties, bureaucrats and the government they have hijacked.
_____________________________________________________________
That can’t be true.
The problems in this country are ALL the fault of republicans alone, and ONLY democrats can fix them.
I mean…
The problems in this country are ALL the fault of democrats alone, and ONLY republicans can fix them.
At least that’s what the politicians tell me, and they wouldn’t lie to me to retain power.
Would they?
Erwin's cat
July 31st, 2012
12:37 pm
Funny “fair and balance” posted the same thing 4 times
Mack
July 31st, 2012
12:37 pm
The President’s own budget has allocated a total of 9.78% for Veteran care and 19.27% for all other Military expenditures for a total Military outlay of 29.05%. If we were to compare that to entitlements 20.04% social security, 12.88% Medicare, 7.28% medicaid, other health 1.42%, 1.06% health research,Other income Security 5.67%, Food Stamps 2.83%, Earned Income Credit 1.87%, housing assistance 1.59% and 2.34% on education for a total outlay of 54.64% on entitlement programs. Entitlements have almost doubled what we are spending on defense and our elected officials (dems and repubs)continue to ignore the real problem.
td
July 31st, 2012
12:41 pm
Since the so-called MSM will not cover this story.
“A fellow professor with Barack Obama at the University of Chicago in the 1990s told radio host Laura Ingraham last week that the man who would become president once insisted, “People shouldn’t be allowed to own guns.”
That professor was John Lott, already known then as a leading gun-rights advocate and now author of several books, including “More Guns, Less Crime” and “Freedomnomics.”
“I knew Obama at the University of Chicago,” Lott told Ingraham. “We both taught there at the same time for about four years, and I talked to him about guns. I know what his views are on that.
“The first time I ever met him, I went, introduced myself, he said, ‘Oh, you’re the gun guy,’” Lott recalled. “He said to me, ‘I don’t believe people should be able to own guns.’”
Big D
July 31st, 2012
12:43 pm
Report: Illegals released by feds committed 19 murders, 142 sex crimes
By Stephen Dinan
-
The Washington Times
Tuesday, July 31, 2012
The Obama administration declined to try to deport more than 36,000 illegal immigrants that were arrested on other charges between 2008 and 2011, including some who went on to commit 19 murders, 3 attempted murders and 142 sex crimes, the House Judiciary Committee said Tuesday.
The findings stem from the Obama administration’s Secure Communities program, which was designed to identify immigrants who run afoul of the law and who the administration decides it wants to deport. While hundreds of thousands have been sent back home under the program, 159,286 were not put in deportation proceedings during the period under review, CRS said.
Those who could have been deported but were released later went on to commit the 19 murders, 3 attempted murders and 142 sex crimes, the Judiciary Committee said. “The Obama administration could have prevented these senseless crimes by enforcing our immigration laws,” committee Chairman Lamar Smith said. “But President Obama continues to further his anti-enforcement agenda while innocent Americans suffer the consequences. His unwillingness to enforce immigration laws puts our communities at risk and costs American lives.”
Mr. Smith requested the CRS report, which used data he had subpoenaed from the Homeland Security Department
Jefferson
July 31st, 2012
12:45 pm
Obligations are what they are. If you work for your money, you want them, those that just draw a check are too chickchit to demand what is their’s. Republicans act like things are free.
stands for decibels
July 31st, 2012
12:46 pm
I was not joking.
True that–it’s more like you seemed to be somewhat trivializing it (by making it about some short-term gain for the US economy).
I figure there’d be others who *would* joke about it, though. and, like clockwork…
Obama just figured out how to end outsourcing of call centers to India -cut their power.
real cute.
Piedmont South from North Georgia
July 31st, 2012
12:47 pm
td
July 31st, 2012
12:41 pm
___
He probably also believes that weed – grass should be legal.
Have not seen him leading any movement to repeal the 2nd amendment or make drugs legal.
Jack
July 31st, 2012
12:48 pm
Lotsa stress appears to be in the posts here today. That stress can be allayed if you are comfortable with voting for Obama: if he is elected, all the fears connected with Romney and conservatives will simply go away; just like in the movies.
Piedmont South from North Georgia
July 31st, 2012
12:49 pm
stands
____
My comment was in poor taste. Will admit to that.
stands for decibels
July 31st, 2012
12:49 pm
That professor was John Lott, already known then as a leading gun-rights advocate and now author of several books, including “More Guns, Less Crime” and “Freedomnomics.”
Oh, let’s not forget his other great credit–sockpuppeting on Usenet and, I believe, Amazon.
Yeah, there’s a real credible spokesmodel you got there.
Keep Up the Good Fight!
July 31st, 2012
12:49 pm
Well you can look forward to similar things happening in the US if we don’t upgrade our infrastructure…. and to do that will take raising taxes (including closing loopholes and simplifying the tax code) to bring it up to date while at the same time reducing the national debt with smart spending cuts.
stands for decibels
July 31st, 2012
12:50 pm
My comment was in poor taste.
meh. only about 3% more tasteless than my bit about Silvio, so I’m hardly one to judge.
JDW
July 31st, 2012
12:52 pm
In the decade of the 1950’s total tax receipts less Social Taxes ( SSI and Medicare) equaled 15.2% of GDP. If you take the average of all years we have run a surplus since 1940 receipts have averaged 14.3% of GDP
By 2009 that was down to 8.8% of GDP and since Duhbya’s original folly which was then repeated by Obama receipts net of Social Taxes have averaged 10.4%
While the recession has caused a spike in spending that will eventually be reduced (current estimates have deficits returning to the 3.5% of GDP range by mid-decade) and Social Programs need to be adjusted for current demographics a big part of the real problem is that we have cut tax receipts by 4%+ of GDP by giving cuts to high income individuals and corporations.
Another issue that has caused our current deficits is the failure to keep the excise taxes collected by the government current. In 1950 the Federal Government collected 2.8% of GDP in excise taxes. By 2010 that was down to .5%.
If you take those two points of revenue reduction and return us to the 1950’s standard we would collect around 6.2% of GDP more in revenue than we did in 2011…that amounts to 70%+ of the 2011 budget deficit.
That is part of the Good ole Days the GOP doesn’t want us to remember…because guess where all that money has ended up….in the hands of the top 10% or so of American households.
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
July 31st, 2012
12:56 pm
How crazy will the cons be four years from now when Clinton takes over for Obama.
I expect Clinton to run in 2016, but she will first have to beat Obama in the primaries. You don’t think he is going to give up that easy, do you. Who will you vote for Skip?
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
July 31st, 2012
12:57 pm
When your whole argument starts off with the premise “If you change the way reality is”, you don’t really have much of an argument.
Bruno
July 31st, 2012
12:58 pm
Welcome again to the Bookman regulars. I want to echo Kyle’s invitation from yesterday for all of you to continue stopping by even after Jay returns.
Erwin's cat
July 31st, 2012
1:00 pm
Hi Bruno…
stands for decibels
July 31st, 2012
1:01 pm
Bruno, thanks–I’ve always felt welcome at Kyle’s, even though I never posted much here.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
July 31st, 2012
1:02 pm
“I want to echo Kyle’s invitation from yesterday for all of you to continue stopping by even after Jay returns”
Maybe you can limit your invitation to just the sane ones, Bruno?
Keep Up the Good Fight!
July 31st, 2012
1:05 pm
I see someone is still waking up on the childish side of the bed….. as some posters over at Bookman’s note often: Stop being a richard Otay.
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
July 31st, 2012
1:05 pm
If California keeps depending on other states and countries to generate their electrical power, due to their green dream, an India type disaster may well happen there as well.
Bruno
July 31st, 2012
1:08 pm
A little off topic, but wanted to share a few facts with all of you regarding our “health care” system. Although the US makes up only 5% of the world population, we consume about 75% of all pharmaceutical drugs. As a result, we remain one of the sickest nations, in fact in the bottom five of all the nations surveyed by the WHO (World Health Organization). This is despite the fact that we have one of the lowest rates of smoking and one of the highest qualities of life. Coincidence?? You decide.
Some of you here ( *cough* *cough* JamVet *cough* *cough*) like to toss around a figure that somewhere around 40,000 people die each year due to lack of medical care, or medical insurance, according to some estimates. At the same time, it is estimated that somewhere around 350,000 people die as a RESULT of medical mistakes, making it the third leading cause of death in the US according to a JAMA article. The same journal revealed that in 1990, MDs were given on average $13,000 per year in gifts and enticements from the various drug companies as an enticement to sell their drugs.
Not Blind
July 31st, 2012
1:09 pm
@ The Black Guy. The “government for the people…” is long gone.
Bruno
July 31st, 2012
1:09 pm
Maybe you can limit your invitation to just the sane ones, Bruno?
Awww, that would be no fun.
barking frog
July 31st, 2012
1:10 pm
Bruno
I agree with Kyle nearly as
much as Jay depending on
whether I’m being a
conservafrog or a frogressive.
Bruno
July 31st, 2012
1:12 pm
Special “howdy” to That Black Guy and Erwin’s cat. Great to see you guys here.
Has anyone seen Matti??
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
July 31st, 2012
1:17 pm
KUTGF, I suggest you remember Kyle’s blog rules.
You’re teetering on the edge, son.
stands for decibels
July 31st, 2012
1:17 pm
Although the US makes up only 5% of the world population, we consume about 75% of all pharmaceutical drugs.
That’s fairly horrifying (although I guess I should ask for a cite before I accept it as gospel.)
Assuming that is true–How much of that do you blame on the US being only one of two nations on the planet that permits directly marketing of prescription drugs to end users?
independent thinker
July 31st, 2012
1:18 pm
Tell me Kyle and other wingnuts -when I see Romney getting a $77,000 tax write off for training a horse to dance and Bain getting tax write offs for closing plants and outsourcing the jobs (right now), and GE paying no taxes why should I agree to cut back on any benefits the government is obligated to pay me?(including unfunded Medicare drugs thanks to George W).Aren’t those also entitlements?
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
July 31st, 2012
1:20 pm
“Awww, that would be no fun.
”
But it takes up so much time correcting their errors, Bruno . . .
Keep Up the Good Fight!
July 31st, 2012
1:21 pm
Tibby, I am sure Kyle will let me know. Frankly, after what you have posted and your buddy, I WHINE, I would have thought you crossed over the line long ago.
I’m not your son…. and you are not my father, although you may be on a death star.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
July 31st, 2012
1:24 pm
“why should I agree to cut back on any benefits the government is obligated to pay me?”
You shouldn’t, independent. But you’d better be just as concerned about keeping any loopholes, rather than getting rid of a select few.
Get rid of them all, including those for having kids and mortgage interest as well.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
July 31st, 2012
1:26 pm
“I am sure Kyle will let me know.”
I’ll make certain he does, KUTGF.
Don’t cross the name line again, and we’ll be fine, got it?
Bruno
July 31st, 2012
1:28 pm
That’s fairly horrifying (although I guess I should ask for a cite before I accept it as gospel.)
I quoted that from a professional journal I receive which didn’t list a cite.
In checking the web, this site quotes a figure of 45% of all the world’s pharmaceuticals consumed here. Still an astronomical figure considering we make up only 5% of the world’s population.
http://www.mdjunction.com/medical-marijuana-patients/articles/a-prescription-for-disaster-pharmaceutical-overuse-in-the-us