NYT’s Keller gets it half-right on need to reform entitlements
In a column addressed to his fellow baby boomers (sorry, this Gen-Xer peeked anyway!) New York Times columnist Bill Keller says one way for his generation to shed its reputation of entitlement and selfishness is, well, to be less selfish about entitlements.
He refers to a study by the Democratic think tank Third Way that examines the tremendous growth of, as Keller puts it, the federal government’s “safety-net programs that provide a measure of economic stability for the aging and poor: Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, etc.” The growth of this spending, he and Third Way argue, is crowding out federal spending for “‘investments,’ which includes maintaining our national infrastructure, keeping our military equipped, helping assure that our work force is educated to a high standard, and underwriting the kind of basic scientific research that is too risky or long-term to attract private money.”
The answer, he suggests, is for liberals to embrace reforms of the entitlement programs. I agree with his conclusion, but there’s an important misperception to correct along the way.
Here’s how Keller summarizes Third Way’s findings:
In 1962, we were laying down the foundations of prosperity. About 32 cents of every federal dollar, excluding interest payments, was spent on investments, only 14 percent on entitlements. In the mid-70s the lines crossed. Today we spend less than 15 cents on investment and 46 cents on entitlements. And it gets worse. By 2030, when the last of us boomers have surged onto the Social Security rolls, entitlements will consume 61 cents of every federal dollar, starving our already neglected investment and leaving us, in the words of the study, with “a less-skilled work force, lower rates of job creation, and an infrastructure unfit for a 21st-century economy.”
Sounds pretty bleak for “investments,” huh?
But what these figures obscure is that spending on Third Way’s “investments” category — adjusted for inflation and population growth — has in fact increased significantly during the past 50 years.
How can that be?
Start with the fact that, in 1962, federal spending (see Table 8.4) minus net interest payments equaled 17.6 percent of gross domestic product, or GDP. In 2012, it’s expected to hit 22.9 percent of GDP. So federal spending as a share of the economy is higher today by almost one-third.
Then move on to the fact that GDP, adjusted for inflation, is nearly 4.5 times larger today: Annualized, it stood at $13.56 trillion in the second quarter of 2012 (the most recent data available) compared to $3.06 trillion in the same three months of 1962.
Finally, consider that our population has grown by only about 70 percent during the past half century: from 186.5 million to 314.4 million (note: the Census Bureau has not yet released its estimate for July 1, 2012, so I took the figure for a year earlier and applied the same growth rate the Census Bureau applied for 2010 to 2011; my number ought to be pretty close to the eventual Census estimate, or at least close enough for today’s exercise).
Run the numbers, including Third Way’s calculations of “investments” and “entitlements” as percentages of the federal budget, and here’s what you get:
Inflation-adjusted, per capita federal spending
So, while it’s true that entitlement spending has grown massively since JFK’s presidency — by more than 1,000 percent on a real per capita basis — it’s also true that real per capita spending on that group of “investments” has grown by 60 percent. Not too shabby. Viewed similarly, spending on everything else (besides net interest payments) has also soared by almost 150 percent.
To reiterate: I agree with Keller and Third Way that entitlement reform is desperately needed. And I join them in urging boomers, particularly those of the liberal persuasion, to be open to such changes. Where I part company with them is in the reason this needs to happen.
It’s not to spend more money elsewhere in the federal budget, but to free the economy from the burden of all excessive federal spending.
– By Kyle Wingfield
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josef
July 31st, 2012
8:48 pm
Kyle
Thanks…
BRUNO
IPad now, so it’s sorta drive by time…that sounds like the case as I see it..
PIEDMONT
Several times…
Piedmont South from North Georgia
July 31st, 2012
8:52 pm
Bruno
July 31st, 2012
8:46 pm
________
John was written last of the four gospels. His writings have been a real problem ever since in Jewish-Christain relations
Slapped Down Again
July 31st, 2012
8:53 pm
Bruno
Great info. You watching or reading some sort of informational series?
Slapped Down Again
July 31st, 2012
8:56 pm
Bruno
Some will be calling you a radical, cynical, a liberal…………..
And that will come before or after you are branded a heretic.
But I am sure you can handle it.
later
Bruno
July 31st, 2012
9:00 pm
Here’s the course were taking, Slapped.
http://www.thegreatcourses.com/tgc/courses/course_detail.aspx?cid=6577
Slapped Down Again
July 31st, 2012
9:01 pm
Bruno
Will check it out. Thanks
josef
July 31st, 2012
9:05 pm
BRUNO
As I said, it’s drive by…but, back to our tribal thingie…it’s natural that when the Jews went into the Diaspora and the precepts of the tribal identity came into conflict with the non tribal proselytes would have an anti element
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
July 31st, 2012
9:08 pm
Hear the Word of God, heathens-
Jesus said, “Think not that I am come to destroy the law, or the prophets: I am not come to destroy, but to fulfill” (Matt. 5: 17). Notice the next verse, “For verily I say unto you, Till heaven and earth pass, one jot or one tittle shall in no wise pass from the law, till all be fulfilled” (vs. 18). Jesus fulfilled the law and inaugurated his system or testament (Lk. 24: 44, 47). Christ’s system is not without law, but the onerous system of Moses was nailed to Jesus’ cross (Gal. 6: 2, Col. 2: 14, see addendum). Jesus’ apostles are “able ministers of the new testament” (2 Cor. 3: 6). The Law of Moses could not impart life (2 Cor. 3: 7-18). The law was only a “schoolmaster to bring us (Jew, dm) unto Christ, that we might be justified by faith” (Gal. 3: 24). “But after that faith is come,” Paul continued, “we are no longer under a schoolmaster” (vs. 25). Paul warned regarding any who would attempt justification by the Law of Moses. Hear him: “Christ is become of no effect unto you, whosoever of you are justified by the law; ye are fallen from grace” (Gal. 5: 4). One cannot be saved by a system of meritorious works that seek to earn salvation and by grace at the same time (Rom. 11: 6). John said, “For the law was given by Moses, but grace and truth came by Jesus Christ” (Jn. 1: 17).
Slapped Down Again
July 31st, 2012
9:10 pm
I report
Bad mouthing those he doesn’t agree with politically and also due to his inability to debate and use intellect then on to the Bible…….
WOW
Bless your heart
Lil' Barry Bailout - Vote American
July 31st, 2012
9:23 pm
Numbers-R-US: The party of no label applies quite well with regard to the Republicans and their failure to pass a single jobs bill for the President’s signature even though they campaigned on jobs as a reason why people should vote for them.
———————————
Unemployment went down two points after Republicans won control of the House in 2010.
For more progress, press “Republican”.
Vote American.
md
July 31st, 2012
9:31 pm
” The party of no label applies quite well with regard to the Republicans and their failure to pass a single jobs bill for the President’s signature even though they campaigned on jobs as a reason why people should vote for them. Republicans failed to deliver on their campaign rhetoric and what do they do about it.”
In the real world, the r’s in the House did pass numerous jobs bills……and they now languish in the Senate. So I’d say they did as promised. They have no control over the folks running the other chamber.
As for the relationship……the dems happened to be the party of no in 2003………
Slapped Down Again
July 31st, 2012
9:34 pm
“As for the relationship……the dems happened to be the party of no in 2003………”
Mama, Mama……. they did it 1st?
Hope that is not how you raised your kids or was raised
Bruno
July 31st, 2012
9:41 pm
Reporter–In case you’re not smart enough to understand, your 9:08 is pretty much the same as my 8:46.
Bruno – Are you questioning the Divinity?
That depends upon your definition of “God” and “Divine”. I understand “God” to be the Totality, both the material which makes up our Universe, along with the Spirit which imbibes our Universe with intelligence and purpose. In that way, we’re ALL “Divine”, from the inanimate to the animate, from the simplest forms of life to the most complex. If you’re asking me my personal opinion about some sort of “special Divinity” that Christians like to ascribe to Christ, then I would have to say “No”. Certainly Jesus was a great Prophet, in a class of about two or three throughout history.
md
July 31st, 2012
10:00 pm
“Hope that is not how you raised your kids or was raised”
If you are going to jump into the middle of a conversation, I’d recommend you first go back to the beginning in order to not look silly. Your call.
Bruno
July 31st, 2012
10:02 pm
Reporter–I will leave you with a few quotes from an article about josef’s favorite Jewish philosopher, Maimonides:
“According to Maimonides, all of Jewish law aims at two things: the improvement of the body and the improvement of the soul. The former is in every case a means to the latter. The soul is improved by acquiring correct opinions and eventually knowledge on everything humans are capable of knowing. The more knowledge the soul acquires, the more it is able to fulfill the commandment (Deuteronomy 6:5) to love God. The biggest stumbling block to love of God is the belief that the only way to remain true to the Bible is to interpret it literally. The result of literal interpretation is a material conception of God, which, in Maimonides’ opinion, amounts to idolatry.”
And:
“From Maimonides’ perspective, however, there is more to monotheism than belief in a single deity. To satisfy the first two commandments, one must believe in a timeless, changeless, immaterial deity who is one in every respect and unlike anything in the created order. A person who fails to recognize such a deity is accorded the status of an idolater no matter how many other commandments she may fulfill or how fervently she may fulfill them. Simply put, to worship God under a false description is not to worship God at all. Not only is this true at present, as Maimonides sees it, it has been true since God first spoke to Adam.”
http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/maimonides/
1 Corinthians 13:11: “When I was a child, I used to speak like a child, think like a child, reason like a child; when I became a man, I did away with childish things.”
Time to man-up……
Slapped Down Again
July 31st, 2012
10:09 pm
md
As I said, if the best you have is telling mommy that your sibling did it first, you are being as myopic as the one you call out
they did it 1st
hahahahahaha
JamVet
July 31st, 2012
10:11 pm
…kinda like global warming and all the other “sky is falling” minutia.
iggy, congrats!
It’s you Republicans and the North Koreans on one side of the issue and the entire rest of the world on the other.
But you do make a nice pair!
md
July 31st, 2012
10:13 pm
Slapped…..and as I said, there was more to the conversation, and if one had any sense they would make themselves privy to that info. Then, they would know what they are posting does not apply and there would be no need to post that petty stuff…….
Slapped Down Again
July 31st, 2012
10:17 pm
md
Must not be that petty, has you in knots
just saying
md
July 31st, 2012
10:20 pm
Knots? Not……
Merely attempting to help you with your affliction…..
Bruno
July 31st, 2012
10:22 pm
TBG, I do not make it personal. Seems like some of these folks could grasp that simple concept, but…
LOL @ Jam.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pEQAie8ABLE&feature=related
Slapped Down Again
July 31st, 2012
10:25 pm
md
You will make it through your “mama, they did it first” phase.
md
July 31st, 2012
10:36 pm
“You will make it through your “mama, they did it first” phase.”
Oh well, suit yourself if you want to look silly.
You are aware that there were 14 pages prior to this one…..right?
Not too sure why you insist on not reading the other pages as they show that your comments do not apply……..but then again, some folks are just lazy I guess.
Bruno
July 31st, 2012
10:40 pm
Last song for my buddy, Jam. The beauty of Jethro Tull came in these moments of peace and clarity amid the chaos.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jpkRdoXxs20
Wond’ring aloud –
How we feel today.
Last night sipped the sunset –
My hands in her hair.
We are our own saviours
As we start both our hearts beating life
Into each other.
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
August 1st, 2012
7:45 am
Bruno
July 31st, 2012
9:41 pm
Reporter–In case you’re not smart enough to understand, your 9:08 is pretty much the same as my 8:46.
Bruno – Are you questioning the Divinity?
Certainly Jesus was a great Prophet, in a class of about two or three throughout history.
Bruno- I’m not sure what bridge you’re trying to drive off of but I do know I won’t be going along for the ride.
Run of the mill prophets don’t rise from the dead and Ascend into Heaven.
Bruno
August 1st, 2012
12:10 pm
Run of the mill prophets don’t rise from the dead and Ascend into Heaven.
Tell you what, Reporter, as soon as you can provide me some kind of proof of Jesus rising from the dead or of a physical heaven beyond legends and retold stories, then I’ll believe the same way you do.
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
August 1st, 2012
12:36 pm
Bruno- You exist, don’t you?
David B. Kendall
August 2nd, 2012
9:30 am
Kyle, since you agreed with us half-way over NYT Bill Keller’s column about our report on federal investment spending, we at Third Way thought we’d return the favor and agree with you halfway. You make a good point that spending on public investments have grown when you compare it to inflation and population growth. However, as you can see in the chart on p. 4 of our report, as a percentage of America’s GDP, federal investments are also shrinking while entitlement spending is growing. So while investments may have kept pace with inflation, they are not keeping pace with the size of our economy. And that is critical.
In that same chart, you will notice that as our investments as a percentage of GDP have shrunk, so has our average growth per decade. Of course, there are other factors contributing to growth, but investments are critical in moving the economy forward.
Finally, as Democrats, of course, we’d like to see investments keep pace with economic growth, not just inflation, in order to ensure economic opportunity for all. But the problem is far more severe. In the near term, the 10-year federal budget caps will cut in investments below the projected rate of inflation. In the long term, rising entitlement spending will squeeze investments even more unless the nation changes fiscal course. That will mean more congestion on highways, fewer cures for diseases, and less college education. In the long term, rising entitlement spending will squeeze investments even more unless the nation changes fiscal course. We think Democrats, as the progenitors of most investments and entitlements, should lead that fight. –Dave Kendall