NYT’s Keller gets it half-right on need to reform entitlements
In a column addressed to his fellow baby boomers (sorry, this Gen-Xer peeked anyway!) New York Times columnist Bill Keller says one way for his generation to shed its reputation of entitlement and selfishness is, well, to be less selfish about entitlements.
He refers to a study by the Democratic think tank Third Way that examines the tremendous growth of, as Keller puts it, the federal government’s “safety-net programs that provide a measure of economic stability for the aging and poor: Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, etc.” The growth of this spending, he and Third Way argue, is crowding out federal spending for “‘investments,’ which includes maintaining our national infrastructure, keeping our military equipped, helping assure that our work force is educated to a high standard, and underwriting the kind of basic scientific research that is too risky or long-term to attract private money.”
The answer, he suggests, is for liberals to embrace reforms of the entitlement programs. I agree with his conclusion, but there’s an important misperception to correct along the way.
Here’s how Keller summarizes Third Way’s findings:
In 1962, we were laying down the foundations of prosperity. About 32 cents of every federal dollar, excluding interest payments, was spent on investments, only 14 percent on entitlements. In the mid-70s the lines crossed. Today we spend less than 15 cents on investment and 46 cents on entitlements. And it gets worse. By 2030, when the last of us boomers have surged onto the Social Security rolls, entitlements will consume 61 cents of every federal dollar, starving our already neglected investment and leaving us, in the words of the study, with “a less-skilled work force, lower rates of job creation, and an infrastructure unfit for a 21st-century economy.”
Sounds pretty bleak for “investments,” huh?
But what these figures obscure is that spending on Third Way’s “investments” category — adjusted for inflation and population growth — has in fact increased significantly during the past 50 years.
How can that be?
Start with the fact that, in 1962, federal spending (see Table 8.4) minus net interest payments equaled 17.6 percent of gross domestic product, or GDP. In 2012, it’s expected to hit 22.9 percent of GDP. So federal spending as a share of the economy is higher today by almost one-third.
Then move on to the fact that GDP, adjusted for inflation, is nearly 4.5 times larger today: Annualized, it stood at $13.56 trillion in the second quarter of 2012 (the most recent data available) compared to $3.06 trillion in the same three months of 1962.
Finally, consider that our population has grown by only about 70 percent during the past half century: from 186.5 million to 314.4 million (note: the Census Bureau has not yet released its estimate for July 1, 2012, so I took the figure for a year earlier and applied the same growth rate the Census Bureau applied for 2010 to 2011; my number ought to be pretty close to the eventual Census estimate, or at least close enough for today’s exercise).
Run the numbers, including Third Way’s calculations of “investments” and “entitlements” as percentages of the federal budget, and here’s what you get:
Inflation-adjusted, per capita federal spending
So, while it’s true that entitlement spending has grown massively since JFK’s presidency — by more than 1,000 percent on a real per capita basis — it’s also true that real per capita spending on that group of “investments” has grown by 60 percent. Not too shabby. Viewed similarly, spending on everything else (besides net interest payments) has also soared by almost 150 percent.
To reiterate: I agree with Keller and Third Way that entitlement reform is desperately needed. And I join them in urging boomers, particularly those of the liberal persuasion, to be open to such changes. Where I part company with them is in the reason this needs to happen.
It’s not to spend more money elsewhere in the federal budget, but to free the economy from the burden of all excessive federal spending.
– By Kyle Wingfield
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Bruno
July 31st, 2012
7:55 pm
So far, “No” is winning just about everywhere.
http://www.ajc.com/news/tsplost-results-1483968.html
Sick of Progs
July 31st, 2012
7:55 pm
Hillbilly D
July 31st, 2012
7:47 pm
The troll of many names is THE perfect example of why right wing blogs always turn into insult hurling cesspools.
Can’t say as the left wing blogs I’ve been on are any different
Thanks for the support Hillbilly. I’ve seen worse on Jay’s blogs. But these non-working proggies have nothing better to do than blog all day, and are having Jay withdrawals. Amazing how fast these spineless proggie poopy pants soil themselves when they fear that their medium, as if it’s important, can get moderated. Rofllmao
Bruno
July 31st, 2012
7:56 pm
Anyone here from the “Heart of Georgia” District?? You guys are dragging us down with all of the “Yes” votes.
josef
July 31st, 2012
7:56 pm
SFD
Thanks for the link…it’s marked for later…
Rule of thumb, though, discretion is the greater part of valor…
Hillbilly D
July 31st, 2012
7:57 pm
sfd
I can see both sides of the “anonymity” discussion. If everybody was using their real names, there’d probably be less lively discussions and fewer posters. On the other hand, you wouldn’t have the bomb throwing, people acting out, and intentional attempts to provoke others. It’s a fine line and not an enviable job. Maybe some sort of happy medium would be if the AJC knew who we all are, which they very well may (I’m not all that up on this stuff), but we still didn’t know who each other are.
Bruno
July 31st, 2012
7:58 pm
Out of curiosity, Sick, why do you choose to hang out in a place where you’re not wanted?? Is your life that miserable??
That Black guy
July 31st, 2012
7:58 pm
JamVet
July 31st, 2012
7:43 pm
The troll of many names is THE perfect example of why right wing blogs always turn into insult hurling cesspools.
__________________________________________
Have you been on Kos, HuffPo, or some of the other left leaning sites?
I seen people on the left say some things you wouldn’t hear from a sailor.
BOTH sides do it.
Heck, YOU can get pretty caustic at times.
Piedmont South from North Georgia
July 31st, 2012
7:58 pm
USA Today has gone to facebook and real names. Some are fictious but most are real pages.
Still pretty good discussions go on there.
Hillbilly D
July 31st, 2012
7:58 pm
Sick of Progs @ 7:55
I’m not supporting your comments, which in my opinon, were over the line. I was just saying that right wing/left wing blogs are virtually the same when it comes to decorum.
josef
July 31st, 2012
7:58 pm
TBG
“Why do you guys think about ghay sex so much?”
Them that can, does…them that can’t, talks about it?
stands for decibels
July 31st, 2012
7:59 pm
I like anonymity.
I’m fairly neutral on that. I’m accustomed to anonymous blogs like this; I tend to be pretty protective of personal information, but I recognize that there’s always a reasonably good chance that someone could figure out who I am, so I also try not to post anything I wouldn’t own up to.
And I also figure all this is subject to change, depending on what various news outlets decide to do.
Sick of Progs
July 31st, 2012
7:59 pm
JamVet
July 31st, 2012
7:47 pm
TBG, he will.
And why Kyle is a class act…
But kisser will lick Kyle’s boots so he can feel powerful and deny someone his free speech. Typical of an opinionated offensive name calling proggie. I need to use the power of another entity to support my desire to judge and oppress someone else’s opinion. Definition: Proggie
That Black guy
July 31st, 2012
7:59 pm
JamVet
July 31st, 2012
7:47 pm
TBG, he will. – I hope
And why Kyle is a class act… – he is, like Jay.
Bruno
July 31st, 2012
8:00 pm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_tiOMu_Bf8Q&feature=related
Slapped Down Again
July 31st, 2012
8:00 pm
Sick of Progs @ 7:55
“I’m not supporting your comments, which in my opinon, were over the line. I was just saying that right wing/left wing blogs are virtually the same when it comes to decorum.”
Down goes……. Sick of Progs (Himself)……………………
iggy
July 31st, 2012
8:01 pm
Little early but TSplat getting spanked!!
Sick of Progs
July 31st, 2012
8:01 pm
Hillbilly D
July 31st, 2012
7:58 pm
Sick of Progs @ 7:55
I’m not supporting your comments, which in my opinon, were over the line. I was just saying that right wing/left wing blogs are virtually the same when it comes to decorum.
Duly noted. And my intent was to make a joke on how to keep Ed Schittz off the air, HIV from his wife.
That Black guy
July 31st, 2012
8:01 pm
Bruno
July 31st, 2012
7:50 pm
KYLE, PLEASE BAN THIS GUY.
I’ll second that, TBG. If we can weed out the trash here, we might get to hang out longer.
____________________________________________________________
Short of that, just ignore “it”.
Piedmont South from North Georgia
July 31st, 2012
8:02 pm
think the Hamiltonians were mainly in favor of the power of the individual, when the individual was them.
__________
Hamiltons. Scarlett’s first husband was a Hamilton. And so was Ashley. They always married their cousins.
Sick of Progs
July 31st, 2012
8:03 pm
Down goes……. Sick of Progs (Himself)…………………
You hope, but like a raging case of Herpes, I’ll be back…
Numbers-R-US
July 31st, 2012
8:03 pm
“Can’t say as the left wing blogs I’ve been on are any different.”
I can’t say either. Probably because I have not been on enough to make any definitive claim.
Piedmont South from North Georgia
July 31st, 2012
8:04 pm
iggy
July 31st, 2012
8:01 pm
Little early but TSplat getting spanked!!
________
As well it should.
Hillbilly D
July 31st, 2012
8:05 pm
Enough of this, off to watch the ballgames and catch up on all the deadline deals.
Nite all.
josef
July 31st, 2012
8:05 pm
PIEDMONT
Watch it! Got Hamiltons in my family…they married in and not my direct line…
That Black guy
July 31st, 2012
8:06 pm
Bruno
July 31st, 2012
7:53 pm
Semi-related–there was a neat story on npr this afternoon about anonymous commenters and the news outlets’ increasing reluctance to continue protecting their anonymity.
I like anonymity. The price of freedom is that we have to put up with a few jackasses. Blogs can deal with trouble makers by banning them.
___________________________________________________
I just hope that some of the blog asshatimites slip up and act this way in real life. The knut stomping they receive would be worth the price of admission.
Bottom line: If you won’t say it in person, don’t say it on a blog.
Sick of Progs
July 31st, 2012
8:07 pm
I just hope that some of the blog asshatimites slip up and act this way in real life. The knut stomping they receive would be worth the price of admission.
Bottom line: If you won’t say it in person, don’t say it on a blog.
I’ll say it anywhere i feel, and back it up.
Sick of Progs
July 31st, 2012
8:07 pm
G night Hillbilly!
Slapped Down Again
July 31st, 2012
8:08 pm
“I just hope that some of the blog asshatimites slip up and act this way in real life.”
Will not say all, but you can bet that holds for many of these keyboard commandos. Billy Bad Behinds on the blog. Wouldn’t even look you in the eye if you met them.
Bruno
July 31st, 2012
8:08 pm
josef–Just starting a new lecture in the “From Jesus to Constantine” series called “The Beginning of Jewish-Christian Relations”. Should be interesting….
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
July 31st, 2012
8:08 pm
Prog, please dial it down a bit, will ya? Some of us would like our host to keep this blog open to discuss the results coming in this evening.
That Black guy
July 31st, 2012
8:10 pm
josef
July 31st, 2012
7:58 pm
TBG
“Why do you guys think about ghay sex so much?”
Them that can, does…them that can’t, talks about it
_________________________________________________
I don’t know about that josef.
I think “thems that talk about it” may be the “toe tappers”.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
July 31st, 2012
8:10 pm
As expected, it looks like TSPLOST is going down in rural counties big-time, but the DeKalb’s and the Fulton’s have yet to make their noise.
Piedmont South from North Georgia
July 31st, 2012
8:12 pm
josef
July 31st, 2012
8:05 pm
-____________________
What. You doan thin that folks should marry they cousins.
josef
July 31st, 2012
8:12 pm
TBG
Asshaterites? I’m so stealing that one…sounds Biblical, doesn’t it….
“…and the Asshaterites descended upon the Chosen bringing with them the plagues of…”
BRUNO
Keep me posted on how that one runs…
getalife
July 31st, 2012
8:12 pm
I don’t think government should be watching what Americans do with their junk.
That Black guy
July 31st, 2012
8:12 pm
Heading home.
Nite all.
Slapped Down Again
July 31st, 2012
8:14 pm
“toe tappers”.
“I am not gay. I love my wife, my family. I care about friends and staff and Idaho. I love serving this great state. Over the years, I have accomplished a lot for Idaho, and I hope Idahoans will allow me to continue to do that,” he said.
Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,294953,00.html#ixzz22FUJAfCV
Bathroom trysts do not count
JamVet
July 31st, 2012
8:16 pm
TBG, I do not make it personal. Seems like some of these folks could grasp that simple concept, but…
And it sounds cliche, but I don’t start the fights, I just end them.
To wit, on this forum alone in the past week, I will assist in getting two more delinquents get kicked to the curb.
It’s a never ending job, but someone has to fight for truth, justice and the American way!
B, remember this one? I heard it in the rock and roll Kroger earlier today…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2m9Woo6UwoI
Slapped Down Again
July 31st, 2012
8:16 pm
Tiberius
Even if Fulton and Dekalb get a majority, I do not think those numbers will overcome the NOs elsewhere. Doubt the “majority” would be overwhelming.
josef
July 31st, 2012
8:17 pm
TBG
True, dat! And you’re right, they DON’T talk about it…
PIEDMONT
I always get tickled when folks go talking ’bout folks down this way marrying cousins, thinking that they’re talking about the “low life.” That was very much something the upper classes did. their European aristocratic pretensions coupled with keeping the shekels/land in the family…it wasn’t at all characteristic of the peasantry, working classes and middle classes…
Kyle Wingfield
July 31st, 2012
8:17 pm
Folks: There’s a primary-night post upstairs now that I’ll update as results come in. If you want to chat about other topics, I encourage you to stick to this thread. Either way, commenting will keep going sans moderation longer than usual tonight … but keep in mind that the rules still apply. Thanks.
stands for decibels
July 31st, 2012
8:18 pm
Hard to argue with this. (linked from that npr story upthread)
what has emerged in the era of online commenting is, about three-quarters of the time, a sewer of stupidity and insults and shallowness. The visions of a digital public square, with less gatekeeping and more democratic forums for discourse, seem quaint and comical in the light of what has actually come to pass.
I have mostly stopped reading the comment threads on the newspaper’s website, because it is almost always infuriating and pointless. It is especially so when I have persuaded someone to share their story – only to see them mocked for their painful experiences or physical appearance. Which is common.
The idea that the newspaper has to spend time and treasure defending this nonsense – not protecting a whistleblower; not battling the government for access to public records – is repulsive. It’s a perversion of what, in other circumstances, is a valuable journalistic relationship: helping to get at the truth by protecting people for whom it’s dangerous to speak the truth. That relationship has been distorted and demented on Internet bulletin boards, and now the monkeys who are in there throwing poop want to be treated like Karen Silkwood.
Bruno
July 31st, 2012
8:19 pm
Keep me posted on how that one runs…
Bart Ehrman, the course professor, makes a succinct point early on that Jesus’s followers quickly turned a religion OF Jesus into a religion ABOUT Jesus, even though Jesus himself did not intend that to happen. Since the Gospels originate in Greece, not Israel, it is safe to assume that a lengthy oral tradition preceded them, introducing the strong possibility that the original words of Jesus became distorted in the meantime.
getalife
July 31st, 2012
8:19 pm
Sick of,
Give it a rest.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
July 31st, 2012
8:20 pm
Slapped down, it all depends on local races in those counties. If they have some competitive races, turnout will be higher, maybe high enough to overcome the rural votes.
The good news is that I haven’t heard of too many races like that in those counties.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
July 31st, 2012
8:21 pm
Heading upstairs, then!
Piedmont South from North Georgia
July 31st, 2012
8:23 pm
josef
July 31st, 2012
8:17 pm
_____
You have read Gone with the Wind haven’t you.
Bruno
July 31st, 2012
8:29 pm
The central question, of course, remains “Was Jesus the Messiah predicted by the Bible?” Most prophetical passages point toward a “political” Messiah, who would resurrect Israel from the ashes. Obviously Jesus wasn’t that guy. Absent that, his followers combed through the Scriptures looking for other passages which would support his “Christdom”, and therefore focused on passages which spoke of cleansing sin through martyrdom.
Now, Ehrman is questioning whether Jesus really was a descendant of David, as is claimed in the New Testament. Another interesting point centers around the (mis) translation of the Hebrew word for “young, unmarried woman” which is now translated as “virgin”.
Bruno
July 31st, 2012
8:46 pm
In summary, Ehrman presents three perspectives on the rightful place of Jewish Law. Jesus himself always advocated keeping the Law, as is supported by numerous quotes. Matthew, on the other hand, saw Jesus as the fulfillment of the Law and notes that Jesus’s message stood in stark contrast to the leaders of his day. Paul takes it all one step further and declares that the Law is basically unimportant, that Jesus alone is the path to Salvation to all people, especially Gentiles who are not bound by the Law. He uses the story of Abraham as his “proof”, noting that Abraham lived in a time which preceded the Law. In this way, faith, along with a right relationship with God, are the only things that matter.
Obviously, Paul’s theology won out in the long run, since his explanation form the cornerstone of Modern Christian theology. Though he wasn’t specifically anti-Semitic, Paul’s words have been later interpreted in that way, setting the foundation for an unfortunate long-standing hostility between Christians and Jews. I say unfortunate, because there is only one God, who is the Father/Mother of all of us. I don’t see any reason to let doctrinal differences cloud that point.
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
July 31st, 2012
8:47 pm
Bruno – Are you questioning the Divinity?