NYT’s Keller gets it half-right on need to reform entitlements
In a column addressed to his fellow baby boomers (sorry, this Gen-Xer peeked anyway!) New York Times columnist Bill Keller says one way for his generation to shed its reputation of entitlement and selfishness is, well, to be less selfish about entitlements.
He refers to a study by the Democratic think tank Third Way that examines the tremendous growth of, as Keller puts it, the federal government’s “safety-net programs that provide a measure of economic stability for the aging and poor: Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, etc.” The growth of this spending, he and Third Way argue, is crowding out federal spending for “‘investments,’ which includes maintaining our national infrastructure, keeping our military equipped, helping assure that our work force is educated to a high standard, and underwriting the kind of basic scientific research that is too risky or long-term to attract private money.”
The answer, he suggests, is for liberals to embrace reforms of the entitlement programs. I agree with his conclusion, but there’s an important misperception to correct along the way.
Here’s how Keller summarizes Third Way’s findings:
In 1962, we were laying down the foundations of prosperity. About 32 cents of every federal dollar, excluding interest payments, was spent on investments, only 14 percent on entitlements. In the mid-70s the lines crossed. Today we spend less than 15 cents on investment and 46 cents on entitlements. And it gets worse. By 2030, when the last of us boomers have surged onto the Social Security rolls, entitlements will consume 61 cents of every federal dollar, starving our already neglected investment and leaving us, in the words of the study, with “a less-skilled work force, lower rates of job creation, and an infrastructure unfit for a 21st-century economy.”
Sounds pretty bleak for “investments,” huh?
But what these figures obscure is that spending on Third Way’s “investments” category — adjusted for inflation and population growth — has in fact increased significantly during the past 50 years.
How can that be?
Start with the fact that, in 1962, federal spending (see Table 8.4) minus net interest payments equaled 17.6 percent of gross domestic product, or GDP. In 2012, it’s expected to hit 22.9 percent of GDP. So federal spending as a share of the economy is higher today by almost one-third.
Then move on to the fact that GDP, adjusted for inflation, is nearly 4.5 times larger today: Annualized, it stood at $13.56 trillion in the second quarter of 2012 (the most recent data available) compared to $3.06 trillion in the same three months of 1962.
Finally, consider that our population has grown by only about 70 percent during the past half century: from 186.5 million to 314.4 million (note: the Census Bureau has not yet released its estimate for July 1, 2012, so I took the figure for a year earlier and applied the same growth rate the Census Bureau applied for 2010 to 2011; my number ought to be pretty close to the eventual Census estimate, or at least close enough for today’s exercise).
Run the numbers, including Third Way’s calculations of “investments” and “entitlements” as percentages of the federal budget, and here’s what you get:
Inflation-adjusted, per capita federal spending
So, while it’s true that entitlement spending has grown massively since JFK’s presidency — by more than 1,000 percent on a real per capita basis — it’s also true that real per capita spending on that group of “investments” has grown by 60 percent. Not too shabby. Viewed similarly, spending on everything else (besides net interest payments) has also soared by almost 150 percent.
To reiterate: I agree with Keller and Third Way that entitlement reform is desperately needed. And I join them in urging boomers, particularly those of the liberal persuasion, to be open to such changes. Where I part company with them is in the reason this needs to happen.
It’s not to spend more money elsewhere in the federal budget, but to free the economy from the burden of all excessive federal spending.
– By Kyle Wingfield
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Keep Up the Good Fight!
July 31st, 2012
7:14 pm
Kam, Thelma is Sick of?
I am still trying to figure out who is who around here from CT’s and Bookmans (of the name changers that is)
They BOTH suck
July 31st, 2012
7:15 pm
Kam
Don’t care who it is. That is off the chain.
On that note, I am out
Kamchak ~ Thug from the Steppes
July 31st, 2012
7:15 pm
Can’t take a joke? Or hit a nerve?
The, “I was just joking/kidding” card.
Soooooooooooo predictable.
Sick of Progs
July 31st, 2012
7:15 pm
Sick of…. your 7:08 is appalling but not surprising. Its no wonder Kyle shuts this down
Thanks, I do try to get under proggie skin!! Excuse me, I’ve got to feed Jay’s gerbils now.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
July 31st, 2012
7:16 pm
Prog, not even remotely funny.
Kamchak, don’t think it’s Thulsa Doom. Not their style, and he’s been on here under his real name.
That Black guy
July 31st, 2012
7:16 pm
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin…
July 31st, 2012
6:41 pm
I’m sorry, which political party approves of two men having sex with each other?…And I can finger the one peoples that are doing it.
_________________________________
So having sex with them is bad, but fingering them is ok?
How does another person’s sex life affect you?
Sick of Progs
July 31st, 2012
7:18 pm
They BOTH suck
July 31st, 2012
7:13 pm
“Can’t take a joke? Or hit a nerve?”
You are a sick individual. No nerve hit, but you sure hit the heights of pure ignorance and stupidity with that “joke”
With a handle like yours, I hit a nerve!!
They BOTH suck
July 31st, 2012
7:19 pm
TBG
He might be fighting those feelings. He just can come to grips except to put up a facade of disdain
hahahahaha
josef
July 31st, 2012
7:19 pm
HILLBILLY
State of Franklin, etc. That period from 1763 to 1815 was certainly interesting in the Trans-Appalachia Mississippi-Ohio Valley, eh? Somehow, though, it just doesn’t make the pages of the sanitized American History text…
stands for decibels
July 31st, 2012
7:20 pm
fingering them is ok?
har.
Kamchak, don’t think it’s Thulsa Doom
Nor do I
Kamchak ~ Thug from the Steppes
July 31st, 2012
7:20 pm
…and he’s been on here under his real name.
That’s never stopped him before either at Jay’s or CT’s.
Hillbilly D
July 31st, 2012
7:20 pm
Kamchak, don’t think it’s Thulsa Doom.
Doesn’t sound like Doom’s writing style to me, for whatever that’s worth. Sounds like somebody else.
Kyle really should think about selling programs. It’d help us keep up with who is who and might contribute to the Wingfield boys’ college fund.
josef
July 31st, 2012
7:21 pm
Not Thulsa, imauo. Thulsa is many things, but anti-gay is not one of them.
Sick of Progs
July 31st, 2012
7:21 pm
Kamchak ~ Thug from the Steppes
July 31st, 2012
7:15 pm
Can’t take a joke? Or hit a nerve?
The, “I was just joking/kidding” card.
Soooooooooooo predictable
Neither, but as seeing aids typically comes from a lifestyle choice, no sympathy from me.
They BOTH suck
July 31st, 2012
7:23 pm
Joseph, HOT AIR, GI Joe?
Hillbilly D
July 31st, 2012
7:24 pm
josef @ 7:19
Of course we’ll never know but I wonder what the world would look like if the area between the Appalachians and the Mississippi, maybe extending up to the Great Lakes (although, to the Ohio River was probably more realistic) had gone their own way. Most everything would’ve been different, including the development of the West.
They BOTH suck
July 31st, 2012
7:24 pm
Everyone have a great night and if you are a believer, pray for “Sick” and his demented mind……………
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
July 31st, 2012
7:25 pm
TBg- You have no idea about my sex life because I don’t shove it in your face.
Sick of Progs
July 31st, 2012
7:25 pm
Kamchak ~ Thug from the Steppes
July 31st, 2012
7:20 pm
…and he’s been on here under his real name.
That’s never stopped him before either at Jay’s or CT’s.
Who is CT’s?
josef
July 31st, 2012
7:25 pm
Is Uncle Kyle letting us stay up a little past bed time to catch the polling results?
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
July 31st, 2012
7:26 pm
If you prefer farm animals, enjoy, have at it.
Just don’t tell me about it.
Thanks!
Hillbilly D
July 31st, 2012
7:28 pm
Is Uncle Kyle letting us stay up a little past bed time to catch the polling results?
He’s probably shaving (although in his pic, he looks too young to shave) and brushing his teeth before he turns out the lights.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
July 31st, 2012
7:28 pm
Maybe Dad’s taking a nap, josef.
Sometimes he doesn’t watch the clock as closely on certain nights.
Kamchak ~ Thug from the Steppes
July 31st, 2012
7:30 pm
Who is CT’s?
The gerbil is familiar with CT’s.
The more you use that IP spoofer thingie, the more data you give the AJC IT department.
Tick…tick…tick…
JamVet
July 31st, 2012
7:30 pm
Amvet changed his monicker?
Childish little trolls.
No wonder Kyle has to shut this joint down early every night…
josef
July 31st, 2012
7:30 pm
HILLBILLY
A good part of my summer reading this year was on that subject from the viewpoint of the French element…much, much stronger there than our Anglo-American tradition wants to paint it…that area came into the American Republic kicking and screaming the whole way, in fact, all the way up to 1865…
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
July 31st, 2012
7:30 pm
It could also be that since he’ll likely be up watching returns, he can keep and eye on the kids better than other nights.
stands for decibels
July 31st, 2012
7:30 pm
Is Uncle Kyle letting us stay up a little past bed time to catch the polling results?
It’d figure–it’s just about the biggest local political story this summer, after all. (so much so I kinda wonder if JB will sneak in a new post before he’s back from fishin’.)
Who is CT’s?
Oh, pull the other one.
Keep Up the Good Fight!
July 31st, 2012
7:30 pm
Maybe Dad’s taking a nap
I had to read that twice…the first time I thought it say “My Dad’s”
Numbers-R-US
July 31st, 2012
7:32 pm
You have no idea about my sex life because I don’t shove it in your face.
Did someone mention abortions.
Bruno
July 31st, 2012
7:34 pm
Early returns on T-SPLOST voting in my district, the River Valley are running 2-1 for NO.
Hillbilly D
July 31st, 2012
7:37 pm
A good part of my summer reading this year was on that subject from the viewpoint of the French element…much, much stronger there than our Anglo-American tradition wants to paint it…
All you have to do is look at place names throughout the Mississippi Valley to see that. And they aren’t confined to the Valley, just more prevalent there.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
July 31st, 2012
7:41 pm
Looks like returns are coming in very slowly (as in none yet) from Forsyth County.
Hillbilly D
July 31st, 2012
7:42 pm
This might be an aid to folks wanting to follow the returns.
http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/40378/93431/en/summary.html
That Black guy
July 31st, 2012
7:42 pm
Sick of Progs
July 31st, 2012
7:08 pm
G Mare
July 31st, 2012
7:06 pm
TBS, did you mean Ed Shultz? He is off the air at least for a while because his wife is ill.
I hope she has aids….
________________________________
KYLE, PLEASE BAN THIS GUY.
JamVet
July 31st, 2012
7:43 pm
The troll of many names is THE perfect example of why right wing blogs always turn into insult hurling cesspools.
I’m glad that Kyle finally realized that and put the squash on these miscreants…
That Black guy
July 31st, 2012
7:45 pm
Kamchak ~ Thug from the Steppes
July 31st, 2012
7:13 pm
What a sick excuse for an individual?
Someone has hate screaming out of them
They BOTH suck — If you haven’t already guessed, it’s your good buddy doom.
________________________________________
I don’t think it’s Doomy.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
July 31st, 2012
7:45 pm
The irony is running a bit thick tonight.
josef
July 31st, 2012
7:47 pm
HILLBILLY
One of the most intriguing stats from the Ante Bellum South is that half the population used French as a language of daily and business discourse, half of the reading materials consumed, both domestic and imported, were printed in French. The occupation had as one of its objectives the de Francosization of the South, and man, lemme tell you, that little act of cultural genocide is one nasty chapter of the American story once it’s opened up…
JamVet
July 31st, 2012
7:47 pm
TBG, he will.
And why Kyle is a class act…
Hillbilly D
July 31st, 2012
7:47 pm
The troll of many names is THE perfect example of why right wing blogs always turn into insult hurling cesspools.
Can’t say as the left wing blogs I’ve been on are any different.
G Mare
July 31st, 2012
7:48 pm
You have chosen an apt blog name, SICK.
Bruno
July 31st, 2012
7:48 pm
Sick of Progs–Why don’t you do all of us a favor and get lost. It’s jackasses like you who cause Kyle to shut down early. Some of us enjoy chatting later in the evening.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QYBguT7mPHU
Bruno
July 31st, 2012
7:50 pm
KYLE, PLEASE BAN THIS GUY.
I’ll second that, TBG. If we can weed out the trash here, we might get to hang out longer.
stands for decibels
July 31st, 2012
7:51 pm
Can’t say as the left wing blogs I’ve been on are any different.
Semi-related–there was a neat story on npr this afternoon about anonymous commenters and the news outlets’ increasing reluctance to continue protecting their anonymity.
link, if anyone’s interested.
http://www.npr.org/2012/07/31/157665460/shield-anonymous-commenters-more-papers-say-no
That Black guy
July 31st, 2012
7:51 pm
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin…
July 31st, 2012
7:25 pm
TBg- You have no idea about my sex life because I don’t shove it in your face.
___________________________________________________________
The important thing is: I don’t CARE about your sex life because it does not affect me in any way.
Bruno
July 31st, 2012
7:51 pm
So how did you vote today, Brother Am?? Don’t tell me you canceled out my “No” vote on T-SPLOST….
josef
July 31st, 2012
7:52 pm
HILLBILLY
“Can’t say as the left wing blogs I’ve been on are any different.”
Yep.
That Black guy
July 31st, 2012
7:53 pm
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin…
July 31st, 2012
7:26 pm
If you prefer farm animals, enjoy, have at it.
Just don’t tell me about it.
________________________________
What does that have to do with the discussion?
Why do you guys think about ghay sex so much?
Bruno
July 31st, 2012
7:53 pm
Semi-related–there was a neat story on npr this afternoon about anonymous commenters and the news outlets’ increasing reluctance to continue protecting their anonymity.
I like anonymity. The price of freedom is that we have to put up with a few jackasses. Blogs can deal with trouble makers by banning them.