NYT’s Keller gets it half-right on need to reform entitlements
In a column addressed to his fellow baby boomers (sorry, this Gen-Xer peeked anyway!) New York Times columnist Bill Keller says one way for his generation to shed its reputation of entitlement and selfishness is, well, to be less selfish about entitlements.
He refers to a study by the Democratic think tank Third Way that examines the tremendous growth of, as Keller puts it, the federal government’s “safety-net programs that provide a measure of economic stability for the aging and poor: Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, etc.” The growth of this spending, he and Third Way argue, is crowding out federal spending for “‘investments,’ which includes maintaining our national infrastructure, keeping our military equipped, helping assure that our work force is educated to a high standard, and underwriting the kind of basic scientific research that is too risky or long-term to attract private money.”
The answer, he suggests, is for liberals to embrace reforms of the entitlement programs. I agree with his conclusion, but there’s an important misperception to correct along the way.
Here’s how Keller summarizes Third Way’s findings:
In 1962, we were laying down the foundations of prosperity. About 32 cents of every federal dollar, excluding interest payments, was spent on investments, only 14 percent on entitlements. In the mid-70s the lines crossed. Today we spend less than 15 cents on investment and 46 cents on entitlements. And it gets worse. By 2030, when the last of us boomers have surged onto the Social Security rolls, entitlements will consume 61 cents of every federal dollar, starving our already neglected investment and leaving us, in the words of the study, with “a less-skilled work force, lower rates of job creation, and an infrastructure unfit for a 21st-century economy.”
Sounds pretty bleak for “investments,” huh?
But what these figures obscure is that spending on Third Way’s “investments” category — adjusted for inflation and population growth — has in fact increased significantly during the past 50 years.
How can that be?
Start with the fact that, in 1962, federal spending (see Table 8.4) minus net interest payments equaled 17.6 percent of gross domestic product, or GDP. In 2012, it’s expected to hit 22.9 percent of GDP. So federal spending as a share of the economy is higher today by almost one-third.
Then move on to the fact that GDP, adjusted for inflation, is nearly 4.5 times larger today: Annualized, it stood at $13.56 trillion in the second quarter of 2012 (the most recent data available) compared to $3.06 trillion in the same three months of 1962.
Finally, consider that our population has grown by only about 70 percent during the past half century: from 186.5 million to 314.4 million (note: the Census Bureau has not yet released its estimate for July 1, 2012, so I took the figure for a year earlier and applied the same growth rate the Census Bureau applied for 2010 to 2011; my number ought to be pretty close to the eventual Census estimate, or at least close enough for today’s exercise).
Run the numbers, including Third Way’s calculations of “investments” and “entitlements” as percentages of the federal budget, and here’s what you get:
Inflation-adjusted, per capita federal spending
So, while it’s true that entitlement spending has grown massively since JFK’s presidency — by more than 1,000 percent on a real per capita basis — it’s also true that real per capita spending on that group of “investments” has grown by 60 percent. Not too shabby. Viewed similarly, spending on everything else (besides net interest payments) has also soared by almost 150 percent.
To reiterate: I agree with Keller and Third Way that entitlement reform is desperately needed. And I join them in urging boomers, particularly those of the liberal persuasion, to be open to such changes. Where I part company with them is in the reason this needs to happen.
It’s not to spend more money elsewhere in the federal budget, but to free the economy from the burden of all excessive federal spending.
– By Kyle Wingfield
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They BOTH suck
July 31st, 2012
6:49 pm
TBG
When did you send it? Just checked and do not have anything.
Please send again
Thanks
Numbers-R-US
July 31st, 2012
6:50 pm
One of the subjects I teach is Spanish…thus my Spanish kids…..
josef,
One of the things I do is trade stock and currency is used to accomplish that task thus my $10 grand trade.
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
July 31st, 2012
6:50 pm
I tend to agree about Bech, he’s a screamer that likes to end his rants in tears. Not good theater, if I do say so myself. However, at least he doesn’t like queers.
Dusty
July 31st, 2012
6:51 pm
OOoweee…will this blog ever get back to normal?
Well, what do I know? I skipped the first ten segments and now it’s closing time. Brer Rabbit is back in style? Who’d a thought it…What next? Alice in Wonderland? The time has come the walrus said to speak of many things…….. tomorrow’s subject….howT’SPLOST saved/not the country!!
Kyle’s not going to give up on that subject…..
Piedmont South from North Georgia
July 31st, 2012
6:51 pm
It’s always funny when people start talking about the Founding Fathers. It’s always when they have nothing left to say.
Tealiban Party
July 31st, 2012
6:52 pm
What????? No column on Mitt’s foreign policy trip? What a diplomatic statesman that Romney guy is (NOT) !!!
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
July 31st, 2012
6:52 pm
Ooops, Beck…
Piedmont South from North Georgia
July 31st, 2012
6:52 pm
Numbers-R-US
July 31st, 2012
6:50 pm
_________
Did you trade up or down. Sell on an up-tick or a down-tick. Buy long or short term. Bet long or short.
Never can tell
July 31st, 2012
6:52 pm
Tiberius
Tell that mind rot to yourself as it inflates you little ego.
If most of your posts are like that and we equate them to liquor, they wouldn’t fill up a shot glass after a month. Hopefully that is not the case
Generalizations are for weak mindd, whether they be left, right or center.
Skip
July 31st, 2012
6:53 pm
“free medicare drug program” can anyone verify this, I’d like to be on it.
getalife
July 31st, 2012
6:53 pm
Those who speak out loudest against the gays turn out to be gay.
Just sayin.
Never can tell
July 31st, 2012
6:53 pm
“However, at least he doesn’t like queers.”
Bigot much?
Never can tell
July 31st, 2012
6:54 pm
getalife
Exactly. He is probably some dude fighting his internal feelings and urges. It comes out via rage and hate, but the hate is of himself and he can’t get out of the cycle
Oh well.
Wish him the best
Never can tell
July 31st, 2012
6:56 pm
Becks tears
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VBmMsTkc9ms
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
July 31st, 2012
6:56 pm
gitmo- Even if that were true, which I can pretty much guarantee isn’t, it almost sounds like you think there’s something defective with people that are gay. Please explain.
Tell us how you really feel.
Hillbilly D
July 31st, 2012
6:57 pm
The Founding Fathers were a diverse lot who disagreed on damn near everything. To attribute any one mindset to them, is sort of missing the point, in my opinion.
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
July 31st, 2012
6:58 pm
If I were to call one of my enemies a frog, how would you gather I feel about frogs?
Just sayin…
josef
July 31st, 2012
6:58 pm
DUSTY
“…of why the sea is boiling hot, and whether pigs have wings…”
NUMBERS
Unfortunately the number 7 is upon us… I was just bred and brought up to keep one’s personal finances private as a matter of good manners…thass all…besides, as Granddaddy always said, if you let people know what you’ve got, they’ll do what they can to separate you from it…
getalife
July 31st, 2012
6:59 pm
Andy,
Just find it funny that they turn up in gay bars….
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
July 31st, 2012
6:59 pm
Never can tell, you remind me of another blogger over on the other side, who comes on board merely to be disagreeable, yet providing nothing of substance on the topic at hand.
I suggest when it comes back up, you head over to it’s loving embrace.
If not, then I suggest you actually post something – anything – on topic and try to keep it remotely factual.
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
July 31st, 2012
6:59 pm
HD- They never even broached the subject of homosexuality back in the days of the founding, most likely because they were all decent people.
Just sayin…
Sick of Progs
July 31st, 2012
6:59 pm
Never can tell
July 31st, 2012
6:32 pm
“or what ever cowardly name they are hiding behind today”
You must be a big time military hero. Tell us about your service that is unless you are just talking big behind a keyboard to hide a “cowardly” demeanor in real life
Amvet changed his monicker?
Piedmont South from North Georgia
July 31st, 2012
7:00 pm
Hillbilly D
July 31st, 2012
6:57 pm
____
That about nails it. And their compromise has left us with gridlock.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
July 31st, 2012
7:00 pm
Now, Dad’s about to drop the gate for the evening, so everybody have a great night, and watch the returns as TSPLOST goes down in flames.
Sick of Progs
July 31st, 2012
7:01 pm
getalife
July 31st, 2012
6:59 pm
Andy,
Just find it funny that they turn up in gay bars…
Now we know you.
Never can tell
July 31st, 2012
7:01 pm
“The Founding Fathers were a diverse lot who disagreed on damn near everything. To attribute any one mindset to them, is sort of missing the point, in my opinion.”
Bingo. However the shallow minds of all political stripes do not understand that and their stupidity rains out of the sky when they make the generalizations as made earlier.
Keep Up the Good Fight!
July 31st, 2012
7:02 pm
Hillbilly, I’d have to agree. The Constitution and the Declaration were the result of compromise of language, ideas and principles. Its too bad that so many have lost sight of that.
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
July 31st, 2012
7:02 pm
OK, gitmo, so tell us what you know about gay bars.
Sick of Progs
July 31st, 2012
7:02 pm
Why do proggies have the most spelling and sentence structure errors? Just sayin..
Kamchak ~ Thug from the Steppes
July 31st, 2012
7:02 pm
The Founding Fathers were a diverse lot who disagreed on damn near everything.
Not to mention about all they were ignorant of. Take microbiology for instance, they were still about a century behind Lois Pasteur and his ground breaking discoveries on bacteria.
Major historians understand the concept, frame of reference.
Never can tell
July 31st, 2012
7:02 pm
Tiberius
If your post about the Constitution is what you deem as substance, you need work. Start today.
Keep Up the Good Fight!
July 31st, 2012
7:03 pm
Sure seems strange that there is a nightly shutdown. Oh well, guess it goes to some of the childishness exhibited.
Never can tell
July 31st, 2012
7:04 pm
Tiberius
Maybe you will visit Jay’s blog. That is, if you can. No meltdowns allowed, you know.
Have a great night
iggy
July 31st, 2012
7:04 pm
Polls closed.
Any word on the TSplat vote count?
Hillbilly D
July 31st, 2012
7:06 pm
I think when they wrote the Constitution, there was some degree of kicking the can down the road. They sorted out what they felt they could and left the rest for future generations to figure out. That’s pretty much human nature, isn’t it?
G Mare
July 31st, 2012
7:06 pm
TBS, did you mean Ed Shultz? He is off the air at least for a while because his wife is ill.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
July 31st, 2012
7:06 pm
“The Founding Fathers were a diverse lot who disagreed on damn near everything. To attribute any one mindset to them, is sort of missing the point, in my opinion.”
Sorry, but the one thing they agreed upon was the role of the individual over the government – the most important thing of all.
And something liberals conveniently forget each and every day.
Sick of Progs
July 31st, 2012
7:07 pm
Kamchak ~ Thug from the Steppes
July 31st, 2012
7:02 pm
The Founding Fathers were a diverse lot who disagreed on damn near everything.
Not to mention about all they were ignorant of. Take microbiology for instance, they were still about a century behind Lois Pasteur and his ground breaking discoveries on bacteria.
Major historians understand the concept, frame of reference.
Gotta admire the French. The Maginot line was amazing until the Germans ran right by it and their invention of chaff was brilliant as they always run away and betray other supporting nations like a bunch of pu$$ies.
josef
July 31st, 2012
7:07 pm
GOOD FIGHT
Not sure being gay is such a good recommendation…James Buchanan, Judah P Benjamin and Abraham Lincoln…my theory is that that b*tch fight was the cause of the Wah-uh!
Kamchak ~ Thug from the Steppes
July 31st, 2012
7:08 pm
Sure seems strange that there is a nightly shutdown. Oh well, guess it goes to some of the childishness exhibited.
CT eventually had to resort to this same measure.
Kyle learned from her example.
Sick of Progs
July 31st, 2012
7:08 pm
G Mare
July 31st, 2012
7:06 pm
TBS, did you mean Ed Shultz? He is off the air at least for a while because his wife is ill.
I hope she has aids….
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
July 31st, 2012
7:08 pm
Only a lib would found a country based on microbiology.
Freaks.
Kamchak ~ Thug from the Steppes
July 31st, 2012
7:09 pm
Why do thelma yak, yak, yak?
They BOTH suck
July 31st, 2012
7:10 pm
“I hope she has aids…”
What a sick excuse for an individual?
Someone has hate screaming out of them
Sick of Progs
July 31st, 2012
7:11 pm
They BOTH suck
July 31st, 2012
7:10 pm
“I hope she has aids…”
What a sick excuse for an individual?
Someone has hate screaming out of them
Can’t take a joke? Or hit a nerve?
Keep Up the Good Fight!
July 31st, 2012
7:12 pm
Yep, them Founding Fathers were so focused on individual rights that they left a great number out of the Constitution and it required the push of the Bill of Rights to “amend” the document.
Sick of…. your 7:08 is appalling but not surprising. Its no wonder Kyle shuts this down.
josef
July 31st, 2012
7:13 pm
BOTH
Yeah, sounds to me like you know who has a buddy over here, eh?
Kamchak ~ Thug from the Steppes
July 31st, 2012
7:13 pm
What a sick excuse for an individual?
Someone has hate screaming out of them
They BOTH suck — If you haven’t already guessed, it’s your good buddy doom.
They BOTH suck
July 31st, 2012
7:13 pm
“Can’t take a joke? Or hit a nerve?”
You are a sick individual. No nerve hit, but you sure hit the heights of pure ignorance and stupidity with that “joke”.
Hillbilly D
July 31st, 2012
7:14 pm
Sorry, but the one thing they agreed upon was the role of the individual over the government – the most important thing of all.
They said they did. In practice, they sometimes forgot that. George Washington was mainly concerned about his speculative land holdings west of the mountains, when he called out the troops in the Whiskey Rebellion.
And what about the State of Franklin? They were against those people, especially when they decided they might want to throw in their lot with the Spanish colonies. I think the Hamiltonians were mainly in favor of the power of the individual, when the individual was them.