2012 Tuesday: Millions of dollars might not buy a T-SPLOST
Each month, Barack Obama and Mitt Romney — and their respective parties and PACs — report their fund-raising totals. One result is a monthly debate about the propriety of big money in politics, and many participants in that debate begin with the apparent assumption that money is everything in an election.
On the local level, however, we are watching the final days of a campaign in which a gilt Goliath appears mortally wounded by a dollar-poor David. Yes, I’m talking about the T-SPLOST.
The pro-tax campaign yesterday finally released its financial statements (on the last day of its past-due grace period), and it shows pretty much what we all expected: a campaign that has had millions of dollars to persuade voters to tax themselves $7.2 billion during the next 10 years to fund transportation. Here’s how the AJC summarized the standing of the pro- and anti-tax groups:
Citizens for Transportation Mobility — the political action committee pushing the July 31 transportation referendum in metro Atlanta — took in $6.5 million from spring 2011 through July 16, according to a campaign finance report filed Monday. Records show the group dramatically outraised opponents of the tax increase: The Transportation Leadership Coalition, which is fighting the referendum, raised $14,418.
(Full disclosure: Cox Enterprises, parent company of the AJC, donated $250,000 to the pro-tax campaign.)
That’s a 450-to-1 financial advantage for the pro-tax side, which is why virtually all the advertising you see about next week’s referendum is in support of the tax. The tax has the backing of the governor, the mayor of Atlanta and most other local and state elected officials in the 10-county region. It has the research apparatus of governmental and quasi-governmental agencies behind it. It has the area’s major businesses making not-so-subtle suggestions to their employees that they should vote for it.
And yet, according to every recent opinion poll, it’s trailing. In all but the one done for the pro-tax campaign itself, it’s trailing badly. In all that have measured support for the tax over time, that support has fallen by double-digits.
What gives?
For starters, this campaign shows once again the effectiveness of real grassroots organizations, and their ability to tap into large networks of passionate supporters at little or no cost. When the Tea Party Patriots, NAACP and Sierra Club all decide to oppose something, their members tend to be much more firmly committed to that stance than are people swayed by advertising or political endorsements.
We must also acknowledge that any effort to increase taxes amid a still-stagnant economy is something of an uphill climb, even when the purported payoff — easier commutes — affects many people’s everyday lives. That said, the most believable poll two months ago was not one that showed the tax ahead or behind by double-digits, but the one that showed it at 42 percent for and 45 percent against, with the rest of the people undecided. Given the nature of Atlanta’s transportation needs, the referendum was bound to be close despite the economy and the low level of trust in government when it comes to transportation. (And, for the record, I still think it will be fairly very close in the end: single-digits either way.)
But the most important factor — and really the only way this campaign’s financing and evolution are similar to the presidential race — is the ability of those proposing a change to make their case clearly and effectively. Barack Obama’s approval ratings may still be mediocre, but all the money in the world won’t help Mitt Romney if he can’t convince the American people he is suitable alternative. Likewise, traffic in Atlanta may be exasperating for a lot of people, but all the money in the world won’t help the folks at Untie Atlanta if they don’t have a credible pitch about how the tax revenues will help reduce traffic congestion.
And that’s where I think the referendum is in danger of failing.
The message from the pro-tax side has gone something like this:
1. Traffic is bad.
2. Look, there are a lot of projects!
3. In the end, we have to do something.
While hardly anyone disputes Nos. 1 and 3, a great deal of people doubt No. 2 is an adequate bridge between them. To be honest, the pro-tax side has hardly tried to convince the doubters otherwise. It’s simply harped even more on Nos. 1 and 3.
That means there’s no clear, coherent message about how the T-SPLOST projects will help the region today, from the urban core to the suburbs. There is no consistent narrative about how the projects work together in a specific corridor or chokepoint. To the degree the message is something other than “trust us; it’ll work,” the message is the map with 157 projects scattered across it. And that map has become a regional Rorschach test that leaves it to individuals to see future relief or wasted money.
In large part, that’s the fault of the people who put the list together, not the ones now tasked with selling it to the public. But however the blame is eventually assigned if the referendum does indeed fail, that’s the central failure of the T-SPLOST — and the crucial task for whoever has to pick up the pieces if Plan B becomes necessary.
– By Kyle Wingfield
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403 comments Add your comment
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
July 25th, 2012
11:17 am
Troll, I have no problem looking to “green” solutions, as long as it is with my money freely given to those solutions.
It’s having that money taken by force to do so that goes against my grain.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
July 25th, 2012
11:21 am
” Too many folks are fooled into thinking that doing something, anything is better than no action at all.”
Precisely, Bruno!
That’s why I never ask my elected officials what they’ve done in office, but rather, what laws they’ve tried to get rid of instead. I have zero interest in hearing about all the new restrictions they’ve placed on someone’s freedom.
Bruno
July 25th, 2012
11:22 am
Tea Partiers are against it because it has too much mass transit? Sierra Club is against it because it has too little mass transit? WWGLD – What Would Goldilocks Do?
Scott–In case you missed it, the local chapter of the NAACP has also come out against T-SPLOST, for predictable reasons:
http://blogs.ajc.com/political-insider-jim-galloway/2012/07/25/your-morning-jolt-kasim-reed-slams-dekalb-naacp-chief-over-tsplost/
I was glad to see Mayor Reed challenge these tired “racist” arguments.
Bruno
July 25th, 2012
11:31 am
In other “breaking news”, Obama is now defending his strategy of relying strictly on negative attack ads during his campaign.
http://www.ajc.com/news/nation-world/obama-negative-ads-could-1483861.html?cxtype=rss_news_61499
From the article: ‘The president seemed to acknowledge his campaign’s gamble in one of his newest TV ads.
“Sometimes politics can seem very small,” Obama says, as he speaks reassuringly into the camera.’
Sadly, it appears that Romney has also chosen the negative path exclusively as well, with an estimated 93% or so of his ads focused on attacking Obama rather than laying out a positive plan for our country.
JamVet
July 25th, 2012
11:32 am
Re your 9:39, thanks, Kyle.
Although voting one’s conscience is not always popular, I will do so on this matter. That it will almost certainly get shot down quicker than a fellow hunter out with Dick Cheney (LOL!) is not the issue for me.
In my worthless opinion, doing absolutely nothing on a matter of this importance and pretending that there is really isn’t enough of a problem to take any significant action is a really bad option…
Bruno
July 25th, 2012
11:35 am
Since the T-SPLOST discussion has appeared to peter out, does anyone have any suggestions as to how Romney can improve his campaign strategy?? Maybe I’m naive, but I would prefer a mix of about 80% positive ads to only 20% negative ads. Let the other guy be the negative one.
Kyle–As our blog leader, could you possibly develop a column along those lines?? Just my uninformed opinion, but I don’t believe that Romney has run an effective campaign so far. Maybe some of the Lefties could chime in to tell us how Romney might possibly improve his message.
Bruno
July 25th, 2012
11:40 am
Re your 9:39, thanks, Kyle.
Maybe we should re-title Rule #2 “The JamVet Rule” since it specifically mentions you, buddy.
For the life of me, I can’t figure out why anyone would go after you personally, you being the paragon of positivity that you are.
On a serious note, I mildly challenged Logic a time or two about his over-the-line comments, but he wouldn’t budge. Kinda sad.
DawgDad
July 25th, 2012
11:42 am
“Tea Partiers are against it because it has too much mass transit? Sierra Club is against it because it has too little mass transit?”
TSPLOST is primarily an attempt to get suburban taxpayers to pay for development benefitting inner-city constuencies who aren’t willing to pay for these things themselves. MARTA, trolleys, Beltlines, etc. are NOT essential infrastructure serving the broad interests of the region as the region is currently defined. I mean, you might as well ask me to vote on the “bridge to nowhere” in Alaska, my interest in ponying up this tax is the same for that effort as TSPLOST. Not to mention the HARM TSPLOST will do in constraining opportunity, which is recognized by both the Sierra Club and Tea Party from their respective perspectives.
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
July 25th, 2012
11:43 am
Sandy Weill — the creator of Citigroup, the ur-mastermind of Too-Big-To-Fail banking, the man most responsible for repealing Glass-Steagall — now thinks that the big banks should be broken up.
salon.com
Go figure. These banking a-wipes ruminate and the taxpayers pay for it.
Bruno
July 25th, 2012
11:44 am
In my worthless opinion, doing absolutely nothing on a matter of this importance and pretending that there is really isn’t enough of a problem to take any significant action is a really bad option…
Jam–Again, I believe taking no action at all is preferable to taking an obviously wrong path. With the economy as bad as it is, I just can’t justify sucking more money out of the hands of consumers in order to fund a laundry list of dubious “improvements” right now.
Hillbilly D
July 25th, 2012
11:45 am
Just my uninformed opinion, but I don’t believe that Romney has run an effective campaign so far.
I think it’s been pretty much McCain 2.0, for whatever that’s worth.
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
July 25th, 2012
11:46 am
Isn’t this so typical of the tax and spenders, blow a big load of cash and get absolutely nothing out of it?
bu2
July 25th, 2012
11:50 am
@Ank
The supporters are just tone deaf. Your arguments are exactly why people should vote against.
We shouldn’t settle for poor results. We shouldn’t accept waste and theft. We shouldn’t vote for something because it is “progressive” but because it actually accomplishes something.
Voting yes says that you are ok with incompetent, dishonest politicians and developers taking your money for their own personal benefit. Voting yes says you are ok with spending billions on something that does very little (and billions of it do nothing) to relieve congestion. Voting yes says you are ok with a plan that pushes problems 10 years down the road ($74 million in annual maintenance per GRTA in year 11-based on today’s $-are unfunded). Voting yes is saying you are ok with politicians telling you they are doing something for transportation when much of what they are doing is just displacing existing maintenance $ (see Atlanta’s list for its 15% of the pie) and building sidewalks and funding current operating costs of buses and rail systems.
They argue economic development and no plan B, but don’t argue congestion relief, because they don’t care about that and didn’t consider that in designing the list. Some of the projects will increase congestion. And they are ok with that-SLOWING auto traffic speeds was one of the positive criteria in evaluating projects.
Bruno
July 25th, 2012
11:50 am
I think it’s been pretty much McCain 2.0, for whatever that’s worth.
HD–I’m not sure I would even give him that much credit. At least McCain had his record as a war hero to run on. Of course, it’s hard to believe that Romney could pick a worse running mate than McCain did.
The only thing that gives me any hope right now is how close McCain made it in the end despite his poor campaign. Given Bush’s unpopularity in 2008, it was pretty well guaranteed that the Dem was going to win. Having said that, I’m still scratching my head as to how Obama beat out Hillary.
Common Cents
July 25th, 2012
11:53 am
Bruno
“Too many folks are fooled into thinking that doing something, anything is better than no action at all.”
While I whole-heartedly agree with your comment, the problem in the past has been the Republican willful denial that there is a problem. The reason that we are stuck with this Obamanation health care legislation is our position that there was no sense of urgency to deal with the problem. As we go forward, as my mother used to say “Doing the wrong thing is no better than doing nothing” BUT we have to be willing to confront issues that, in the past, we have allowed to linger and stagnate because we were not directly affected by them.
Hillbilly D
July 25th, 2012
11:57 am
Bruno
McCain was running against Obama, when Obama was basically an unknown quantity. This time he’s a known quantity, so in my opinion, most people have their mind made up whether they want him back or not. The undecideds are where it always swings and so far, Romney hasn’t really done anything to win them over, that I can see.
I think Obama beat Hillary for a couple reasons. Again he was an unknown quantity and she was well known, with high negatives, comparatively speaking. I think some folks just weren’t comfortable with another round of a Clinton White House. She also was more specific on issues, which all candidates really should be but it also alienates folks, which is why they stay as vague as possible.
Hillbilly D
July 25th, 2012
11:59 am
Common Cents
That’s a good point but most folks don’t worry about fire until they see flames. It’s just human nature. A lot of folks never do today, what they can put off until tomorrow.
Bruno
July 25th, 2012
11:59 am
BUT we have to be willing to confront issues that, in the past, we have allowed to linger and stagnate because we were not directly affected by them.
Common Cents–I guess conservatives are by nature “conservative”, i.e. more willing to stick with the status quo rather than venturing out on a course of change that might make things worse.
I’m not sure who will step up to the plate, but from my perspective, the Repubs have been sorely lacking effective leadership for quite some time now. Which is too bad for America, since ultimately we need balance.
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
July 25th, 2012
12:02 pm
Most presidents have something under the hood – wit, warmth, approachability, something. Even the most liberal football fan could enjoy watching an NFL game with George Bush. And even a Klansman probably would have found some of LBJ’s jokes funny. The biggest office in the world requires someone who buzzes with enough personality to fill the job, and most of them have it.
But Romney doesn’t buzz with anything. His vision of humanity is just a million tons of meat floating around in a sea of base calculations. He’s like a teenager who stays up all night thinking of a way to impress the prom queen, and what he comes up with is kicking a kid in a wheelchair. Instincts like those are probably what made him a great leveraged buyout specialist, but in a public figure? Man, is he a disaster. It’s really incredible theater, watching the Republicans talk themselves into this guy.
Read more: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/blogs/taibblog/romneys-free-stuff-speech-is-a-new-low-20120713#ixzz21ePE8BMo
Dusty
July 25th, 2012
12:02 pm
Well, there are two sides to every opinion. I would say that Logic is a keen observer and presenter of free speech. But some get to practice their free speech and others do not. Now that is sad!
I know! This is Kyle’s blog and his decision. Now let us sing together Kum By Ya while everyone “behaves”.!
Bruno
July 25th, 2012
12:05 pm
I think some folks just weren’t comfortable with another round of a Clinton White House.
During the Clinton years, I was turned off by his obvious personal failings, yet was happy about the direction our country took overall. Of course, I give Newt and the Republican Contract For America most of the credit for that. Bill was smart enough to go along with the program, all the while keeping his base happy with meaningless rhetoric.
On a personal level, I see Hillary as much more of an ideologue, but figured she learned something while watching Bill work his magic for 8 years. With Obama, we had to go back to square 1 while he got his on-the-job training. Differently from Bill, however, he doesn’t seem to have benefited from that training in the least. It’s all about finger-pointing with Obama, which disgusts me to no end.
Hillbilly D
July 25th, 2012
12:08 pm
Bruno
Bill Clinton was smart enough to co-opt the positions of his opponents. That left them with pretty much nothing to run on. He understands the game probably better than anybody in my lifetime, along with Reagan. They both knew how to get what they wanted and just when to push and when to back off.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
July 25th, 2012
12:08 pm
Every now and again, I’d like to read something original out of Finn McCool’s keyboard, rather than a cut-and-paste opinion by someone else.
I mean, why participate in a blog at all if all you post is someone else’s work?
Bruno
July 25th, 2012
12:09 pm
Now let us sing together Kum By Ya while everyone “behaves”.!
Dusty–In case you were unaware, JamVet and I are friends away from the blog. Trust me in knowing that he is a good person. You need to come party with us sometime.
Common Cents
July 25th, 2012
12:11 pm
Hillbilly:
“That’s a good point but most folks don’t worry about fire until they see flames. It’s just human nature. A lot of folks never do today, what they can put off until tomorrow.”
While that may have been a position that we had the luxury of taking in the past, in the current political climate what has gone on cannot go forward. Until we start coming up with VIABLE alternatives to these half-baked, ridiculous plans we will continue to be led down a path that will eventually destroy what has been a great country.
Dusty
July 25th, 2012
12:12 pm
Finn,
You do realize that you are using BUSH again for your arguments, most of which are misguided since Democrats did nothing but “spit” on Bush for eight years starting with their legally lost election with Gore.
the basic ideas on voting for the next president are basic for me. If you want a man who will spend every cent in the USA and some in China, vote for Obama. If you want a man who knows how to work in a broken down economy, vote for Romney. I don’t care if Romney fires “sparklers” while Obama is shooting off sky rockets, I want someone who can govern with good experience.
GOOD EXPERIENCE !
Bruno
July 25th, 2012
12:13 pm
Bill Clinton was smart enough to co-opt the positions of his opponents. That left them with pretty much nothing to run on. He understands the game probably better than anybody in my lifetime, along with Reagan. They both knew how to get what they wanted and just when to push and when to back off.
As I’ve mentioned before, I give Reagan credit for turning me into a conservative. Previously, I had helped campaign for Jimmy Carter.
Any Libs here like The Gipper??
Hillbilly D
July 25th, 2012
12:14 pm
Common Cents
I agree with you but I don’t see it happening. I think we’re in the beginning of our long slow decline. That’s pretty much how the cycle works, throughout history.
Bruno
July 25th, 2012
12:16 pm
Until we start coming up with VIABLE alternatives to these half-baked, ridiculous plans we will continue to be led down a path that will eventually destroy what has been a great country.
Great point, CC. Until the Repubs come up with something better, I guess we don’t have much room to complain. If I were in charge of healthcare reform, I’m sure I could come up with a much better plan than ObamaCare. Unfortunately, no one from the RNC has contacted me yet……
Hillbilly D
July 25th, 2012
12:17 pm
Unfortunately, no one from the RNC has contacted me yet……
Yeah but you moved and left no forwarding address.
independent thinker
July 25th, 2012
12:18 pm
Kyle at 11:05:
“”"”"’I’m not sure that will suffice for Romney. If it would, he would be up big in the polls right now. He has to prove himself as a credible alternative first.”"”"”
Very well said for a right wing conservative. I believe his credibility is less than Obama. .
Romney hammers Obama for commenting inartfully about government role in assisting business start ups. Then Romney turns right around and gives a speech in which he says the same thing about infrastructure and government assistance. No wonder he has no credibility. And lets not talk about his taxes and his claim he he has a track record as the job creator. Of course Obama has his flaws too but he has a track record of doing things he said he would do like ending the idiotic and wasteful war in Iraq and beating Al Quaida. I do not believe his credibility is as much an issue.
Sure would love to have you expand on why Romney has a credibility issue.
Bruno
July 25th, 2012
12:18 pm
I think we’re in the beginning of our long slow decline. That’s pretty much how the cycle works, throughout history.
C’mon, HD, you’re starting to sound like a cranky old man.
I wish I had more faith in our young people, but they seem too busy texting to think about any larger issues.
Hillbilly D
July 25th, 2012
12:21 pm
Bruno
I am a cranky old man. Why do you think I live in the woods?
Bruno
July 25th, 2012
12:21 pm
Yeah but you moved and left no forwarding address.
That was on purpose…….
I just got back on the “no-call” list, so hope to cut out these annoying telemarketing calls I keep getting at my new phone number. I mean, who ever heard of area code 170?? I keep getting a bunch of calls originating from wherever that is.
Bruno
July 25th, 2012
12:23 pm
Why do you think I live in the woods?
You’d probably like the section of Jersey I grew up in. Just on the edge of the Pine Barrens. My girl, PB and I are heading up there in a few weeks. My little sis booked us a suite at the Borgata using her comp points. Looking forward to getting in a few poker tournaments.
md
July 25th, 2012
12:26 pm
“We are part of an Anglo-Saxon heritage, and he feels that the special relationship is special. The White House didn’t fully appreciate the shared history we have.
How racist is that? What about all the German heritage? The Italian heritage? The Russian?, the African? the Asian?”
The above was in reference to the relationship with the UK…..not Germany, not Italy, not Russia, not Africa, and not Asia………..
JohnnyReb
July 25th, 2012
12:27 pm
“I believe his (Romney) credibility is less than Obama. .”
What planet is that from? Everything is known about Romney. He can produce his birth certificate, college transcripts, etc, etc. His life has been an open book. Obama’s word is mud; his intentions cloaked, and his records sealed. Obama’s true idiology and intentions come out when he is away from the teleprompter.
Obama’s credibility does not make a pimple on Mitt’s rear. Lib’s are wishful thinking.
Hillbilly D
July 25th, 2012
12:28 pm
Bruno
I passed through NJ once on a train but it was at night, so I really haven’t seen anything there. I’d like to see every state once.
A hot tip on your phone calls, no area code in North America begins with a 1.
md
July 25th, 2012
12:29 pm
“Considering how everything else turned out that Shrub touched, maybe it was for the best… All the while you teatards stood by screaming HARDER… FASTER…”
Interesting comment……not sure how one equates calling for reform of F/F with “harder/faster”, but there it is.
Bruno
July 25th, 2012
12:35 pm
How racist is that? What about all the German heritage?
md–If I remember my history correctly, the Angles and the Saxons were both Germanic tribes.
Out of curiosity, what did the Italians ever do for us?? Past Galileo, that is…..
Hillbilly D
July 25th, 2012
12:38 pm
what did the Italians ever do for us?
They gave us Yogi Berra’s parents. We owe them big time for that.
Dusty
July 25th, 2012
12:39 pm
BRUNO 12:09
Please don’t suggest that I don’t know too well some of the personalities presented on these blogs. It is old stuff with some of the controversial ones. They’ve tried (with poor results) to be outstanding rebels of a raucous sort.
As to get togethers, thanks but no thanks. Conversation is usually interesting here. An exchange of thoughts is why I come here.. Nothing more.
Why Romney needs to talk about himself | Kyle Wingfield
July 25th, 2012
12:40 pm
[...] mentioned in a brief comment yesterday that Mitt Romney has to do more than attack President Obama’s record if he’s [...]
md
July 25th, 2012
12:42 pm
“Just my uninformed opinion, but I don’t believe that Romney has run an effective campaign so far.”
He may have his hands tied a bit at the moment. He used his “primary” money getting through a tough primary. Now, he can’t use his “presidential” funds until after the convention. I think he is stuck in stall mode until the funds are freed up. And with that said, he hasn’t lost ground to Obama so it may get interesting when he comes out blazing after the convention while Obama is running through his own funds.
Jefferson
July 25th, 2012
12:43 pm
Why in the world do you GOP lovers keep bringing folk like Romney, who is hiding tons of money arounds the world, just opem for spin and enuendo, nothing but trouble ? Why — is there not anyone you folks won’t sell out to ?
md
July 25th, 2012
12:44 pm
“md–If I remember my history correctly, the Angles and the Saxons were both Germanic tribes.”
I understand that, but Romney’s comment was in reference to the “relationship” between the US and UK, not the underlying makeup of each.
md
July 25th, 2012
12:46 pm
“Why — is there not anyone you folks won’t sell out to ?”
That’s a bit rich coming from a party that just took over healthcare…….
iggy
July 25th, 2012
12:58 pm
Being as I work from home, my commute is about all of 5 seconds. And even if I drove the 25 miles everyday I would still vote NO TSplost.
Mr_B
July 25th, 2012
1:02 pm
“Out of curiosity, what did the Italians ever do for us?? Past Galileo, that is…..”
Well they did provide the basis for most of our language that doesn’t come from Anglo-Saxon.
iggy
July 25th, 2012
1:12 pm
The mob!