2012 Tuesday: Millions of dollars might not buy a T-SPLOST
Each month, Barack Obama and Mitt Romney — and their respective parties and PACs — report their fund-raising totals. One result is a monthly debate about the propriety of big money in politics, and many participants in that debate begin with the apparent assumption that money is everything in an election.
On the local level, however, we are watching the final days of a campaign in which a gilt Goliath appears mortally wounded by a dollar-poor David. Yes, I’m talking about the T-SPLOST.
The pro-tax campaign yesterday finally released its financial statements (on the last day of its past-due grace period), and it shows pretty much what we all expected: a campaign that has had millions of dollars to persuade voters to tax themselves $7.2 billion during the next 10 years to fund transportation. Here’s how the AJC summarized the standing of the pro- and anti-tax groups:
Citizens for Transportation Mobility — the political action committee pushing the July 31 transportation referendum in metro Atlanta — took in $6.5 million from spring 2011 through July 16, according to a campaign finance report filed Monday. Records show the group dramatically outraised opponents of the tax increase: The Transportation Leadership Coalition, which is fighting the referendum, raised $14,418.
(Full disclosure: Cox Enterprises, parent company of the AJC, donated $250,000 to the pro-tax campaign.)
That’s a 450-to-1 financial advantage for the pro-tax side, which is why virtually all the advertising you see about next week’s referendum is in support of the tax. The tax has the backing of the governor, the mayor of Atlanta and most other local and state elected officials in the 10-county region. It has the research apparatus of governmental and quasi-governmental agencies behind it. It has the area’s major businesses making not-so-subtle suggestions to their employees that they should vote for it.
And yet, according to every recent opinion poll, it’s trailing. In all but the one done for the pro-tax campaign itself, it’s trailing badly. In all that have measured support for the tax over time, that support has fallen by double-digits.
What gives?
For starters, this campaign shows once again the effectiveness of real grassroots organizations, and their ability to tap into large networks of passionate supporters at little or no cost. When the Tea Party Patriots, NAACP and Sierra Club all decide to oppose something, their members tend to be much more firmly committed to that stance than are people swayed by advertising or political endorsements.
We must also acknowledge that any effort to increase taxes amid a still-stagnant economy is something of an uphill climb, even when the purported payoff — easier commutes — affects many people’s everyday lives. That said, the most believable poll two months ago was not one that showed the tax ahead or behind by double-digits, but the one that showed it at 42 percent for and 45 percent against, with the rest of the people undecided. Given the nature of Atlanta’s transportation needs, the referendum was bound to be close despite the economy and the low level of trust in government when it comes to transportation. (And, for the record, I still think it will be fairly very close in the end: single-digits either way.)
But the most important factor — and really the only way this campaign’s financing and evolution are similar to the presidential race — is the ability of those proposing a change to make their case clearly and effectively. Barack Obama’s approval ratings may still be mediocre, but all the money in the world won’t help Mitt Romney if he can’t convince the American people he is suitable alternative. Likewise, traffic in Atlanta may be exasperating for a lot of people, but all the money in the world won’t help the folks at Untie Atlanta if they don’t have a credible pitch about how the tax revenues will help reduce traffic congestion.
And that’s where I think the referendum is in danger of failing.
The message from the pro-tax side has gone something like this:
1. Traffic is bad.
2. Look, there are a lot of projects!
3. In the end, we have to do something.
While hardly anyone disputes Nos. 1 and 3, a great deal of people doubt No. 2 is an adequate bridge between them. To be honest, the pro-tax side has hardly tried to convince the doubters otherwise. It’s simply harped even more on Nos. 1 and 3.
That means there’s no clear, coherent message about how the T-SPLOST projects will help the region today, from the urban core to the suburbs. There is no consistent narrative about how the projects work together in a specific corridor or chokepoint. To the degree the message is something other than “trust us; it’ll work,” the message is the map with 157 projects scattered across it. And that map has become a regional Rorschach test that leaves it to individuals to see future relief or wasted money.
In large part, that’s the fault of the people who put the list together, not the ones now tasked with selling it to the public. But however the blame is eventually assigned if the referendum does indeed fail, that’s the central failure of the T-SPLOST — and the crucial task for whoever has to pick up the pieces if Plan B becomes necessary.
– By Kyle Wingfield
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403 comments Add your comment
Logic was never intended for libs
July 24th, 2012
2:00 pm
HDB
Obama will not win an argument when it comes to the economy. The stimulus packages failed. People see through Obama’s rhetoric and realize he has no idea how businesses run. In fact, I doubt you do either.
md
July 24th, 2012
2:03 pm
Yep, Obama should keep running those Bain attack ads, they seem to be working…..for Romney:
“By more than 2-1, 63%-29%, those surveyed say Romney’s background in business, including his tenure at the private equity firm Bain Capital, would cause him to make good decisions, not bad ones, in dealing with the nation’s economic problems over the next four years”
Logic was never intended for libs
July 24th, 2012
2:04 pm
md
Correct. The only folks who keep talking about Bain are Obama’s supporters that live on MSNBC, AJC and HuffPost blogs. Even the president himself has backed off.
Hey libs, whatever happened to “the war on women?”
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
July 24th, 2012
2:12 pm
As for voting on things like SPLOSTs, bond issues, etc, I’ve noticed something about that, too. When they get voted down, if it’s something that’s really needed, they always seem to find the money somewhere, to go ahead and do what they were asking for more money to do. Their first instinct is to ask for more money, rather than prioritize what they already have. It’s awful easy to spend somebody else’s money and that’s what politicians excel at.
Hillbilly D, ain’t it the truth! Very well said.
They blame the lack of road construction on reduced revenue from gas taxes and the economy. If everything suddenly improved and revenues exceeded past amounts, do you think they would jump up and drop the extra penny sales tax?
joe
July 24th, 2012
2:13 pm
Voting No…what makes you think the incompetent govt officials we have in this city/state will spend more $ on things we actually could benefit from instead of stupid projects like the trolly to the King Center. MARTA buses serve the same purpose. They should spend their time cutting wasteful spending instead of crying for more money.
the cat
July 24th, 2012
2:13 pm
Logic-the war on women is still out there and not forgotten by any stretch. Come November you will find out exactly how well it is remembered and still going on.
Proud of yourself big boy?
Samantha
July 24th, 2012
2:14 pm
Right on, Kyle.
The hundred and fifty or so projects are the problem. Too many “other: priorities will be the death of TSPLOST. I imagine the glee of the politicians and social engineering wonks who drafted the project list will be turned to gall as the peole who would support a tax for traffic turn against the monstrostity that is TSPLOST. My message is simple. If the politicans wanted to sell TSPLOST they needed to focus like a laser on fixing our traffic woes not on thier other agendas.
Kasim Reed who would squander a billion dollars of TSPLOST on projects that won’t do a single thing to help traffic needs to get off his arrogant high horse and get real.
HDB
July 24th, 2012
2:15 pm
@Logic……here’s the counter to your argument…
http://maddowblog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/07/24/12926538-if-the-first-six-months-dont-count?lite
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
July 24th, 2012
2:16 pm
“The only folks who keep talking about Bain are Obama’s supporters that live on MSNBC, AJC and HuffPost blogs.”
A very cogent point, Logic.
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
July 24th, 2012
2:16 pm
Has anyone else noticed that Obama is running his campaign much like he runs the country. Mounds of deficit spending. I guess he is counting on some rich guys to bail him out in both instances.
It seems obvious to me, that he has never had to survive on a fixed amount of income in his life. I guess if he needed more, he always had someone he could ask to help him out.
Jack
July 24th, 2012
2:17 pm
Romey’s credible alternative is that he’s not Obama. And a NO vote for T-SPOST is the only credible alternative for tax paying citizens.
HDB
July 24th, 2012
2:18 pm
Logic was never intended for libs
July 24th, 2012
2:00 pm
When people HONESTLY look at Romney’s record….how Bain ships jobs overseas under the guise of job creation…..that is an argument that many people can understand!! Ask those same questions to the workers in ILLINOIS where Bain is about to offshore their jobs to China….
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
July 24th, 2012
2:18 pm
the cat, that phony “war against women” didn’t work except on the myrmidons who were going to vote for Obama anyway.
But keep remembering that phony issue.
the cat
July 24th, 2012
2:20 pm
Are you repubs still thinking Romoney will be the candidate after the convention??? LOL, don’t think so. I imagine he will be univited before then. Said it before, when that nutbag Ann Coulter threw ole Mitt under the bus, the adventure was over.
the cat
July 24th, 2012
2:20 pm
Tibs-you poor delusional fool. We’ll see.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
July 24th, 2012
2:20 pm
“Ask those same questions to the workers in ILLINOIS where Bain is about to offshore their jobs to China….”
And yet, HDB, I seem to recall that Romney no longer works at Bain Capital.
Do we start blaming Obama for the Illinois state legislature’s inability to balance their budget in 2012, even though he hasn’t served there since 2006?
HDB
July 24th, 2012
2:21 pm
“The only folks who keep talking about Bain are Obama’s supporters that live on MSNBC, AJC and HuffPost blogs.”
Not quite….also check the Boston Globe, Chicago SunTimes/Tribune, Salon, WSJ, TPM…..since FOX won’t do any investigative reporting about Romney…….there’re more media outlets than many feel are evident…..
the cat
July 24th, 2012
2:22 pm
HDB
July 24th, 2012
2:21 pm
“The only folks who keep talking about Bain are Obama’s supporters that live on MSNBC, AJC and HuffPost blogs.”
Not quite….also check the Boston Globe, Chicago SunTimes/Tribune, Salon, WSJ, TPM…..since FOX won’t do any investigative reporting about Romney…….there’re more media outlets than many feel are evident…..
Bloomberg, Forbes, Fortune
HDB
July 24th, 2012
2:23 pm
Tib….are you sure?? Romney doesn’t even remember WHEN he left Bain!! He said 1999; paperwork from the SEC says 2002…and he’s still getting PAID from Bain…so don’t think that there isn’t a POSSIBILITY of some influence from Romney there……..
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
July 24th, 2012
2:25 pm
Does the term “keep talking about” now mean an article or two?
And HDB, I wouldn’t exactly call your list an unbiased one. The Boston Globe? Really? Salon? Seriously?
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
July 24th, 2012
2:28 pm
“and he’s still getting PAID from Bain…so don’t think that there isn’t a POSSIBILITY of some influence from Romney there……..”
HDB, you certainly are reaching for straws today.
Getting paid from Bain? You mean, as in being an investor and shareholder? How many investors have a say in the day-to-day operations of any company, HDB? Answer = Not many.
A possibility of influence, HDB? Just as there is a possibility that Elvis is still alive. But not very likely, since all his investments are in a blind trust. You DO know what that is, don’t you?
the cat
July 24th, 2012
2:29 pm
Tibs-Bain still front page news on every serious news outlet. Why don’t you go look and see for yourself and report back with your findings
the cat
July 24th, 2012
2:31 pm
Romoney is now at the Olympics watching his $75,000 deduction dance.
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
July 24th, 2012
2:31 pm
HDB
The MSM continues to try to make headway with the Bain attack, it is about all Obama has left, but it is not working according to the pollsters. One of the laid off steel workers in the anti Romney ad admitted the other day that he didn’t like Romney, but was not going to vote for Obama.
America has pretty much ignored this attack on capitalism, figuring no matter how flawed it is, it beats Obamaism, socialism, or fascism by a large margin.
HDB
July 24th, 2012
2:32 pm
Tib/Logic…..
When you state that a businessman could better run the economy, I revert to the Bush yaers (the latest businessman to affect the economy)…and discovered this tidbit:
From Feb. 2002 through June 2004, George W. Bush created a net total of 851,000 jobs. Average: 29.3K per month. Don’t forget to add 750K job LOSSES monthly during Bush’s second term……
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth
Obama: 4.2 million jobs; 140K per month.
Looks like a better average to me…….
Private sector total: 786,000 (Avg. 27.1K per month)
the cat
July 24th, 2012
2:33 pm
So out of the hundreds of thousands of good folks whose jobs were outsourced, Rafe could find ONE that will not vote for Obama.
One of the laid off steel workers in the anti Romney ad admitted the other day that he didn’t like Romney, but was not going to vote for Obama.
Well done Rafe.
Hillbilly D
July 24th, 2012
2:34 pm
For there to be a “war on women”, you’d have to assume that all women think alike and have the same political views and that isn’t true. Most of the women that I know, personally, don’t think they’re at war with anybody……well maybe with their spouses but the women are winning that one.
HDB
July 24th, 2012
2:36 pm
Tiberius….there’s more that are looking….as “the cat” has referenced…
…and remember wjat Romney HIMSELF said about the “blind trust”…
The blind trust is an age-old ruse, if you will,” Romney said. “Which is to say you can always tell a blind trust what it can and cannot do. You give a blind trust rules.”
Newsmax.com: Romney in 1994: Blind Trusts a ‘Ruse’
Logic was never intended for libs
July 24th, 2012
2:38 pm
“Logic-the war on women is still out there and not forgotten by any stretch. Come November you will find out exactly how well it is remembered and still going on.”
No it isn’t and you can’t back that claim up with any substantial evidence, sport.
Logic was never intended for libs
July 24th, 2012
2:39 pm
“here’s the counter to your argument…”
MADDOW???????????? You’ve gotta be kidding me, HDB. Try again, sport.
HDB
July 24th, 2012
2:39 pm
“Getting paid from Bain? You mean, as in being an investor and shareholder? How many investors have a say in the day-to-day operations of any company”
You mean the former CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER…one of the original FOUNDERS?? Don’t you think he doesn’t have ANY input, Tib…
Logic was never intended for libs
July 24th, 2012
2:40 pm
“how Bain ships jobs overseas under the guise of job creation…..that is an argument that many people can understand!! Ask those same questions to the workers in ILLINOIS where Bain is about to offshore their jobs to China….”
The problem with your argument is that you can’t prove that Romney sent any jobs over seas. What I can counter you with is the fact that Obama’s right hand man, Immelt, sent jobs to China via GE.
Romney has a stellar record with jobs creation. Obama not so much.
the cat
July 24th, 2012
2:41 pm
logic-google is your friend. not doing the work for what I know is true.
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
July 24th, 2012
2:41 pm
cat
So out of the hundreds of thousands of good folks whose jobs were outsourced, Rafe could find ONE that will not vote for Obama.
I believe there are many, especially those whose jobs were outsourced by Obama. Check with the NASA folks, bet there are a few there, who will not vote for the man who outsourced many of their jobs, and killed many of those not outsourced.
Outsourcing jobs is a bipartisan accomplishment that has been going on, since WWII. Blame our tax laws. You reap what you sow, something Congress will never realize. Keep raising taxes and watch them flee.
HDB
July 24th, 2012
2:42 pm
Logic….DR. Maddow is quite accurate in her charting processes…and her research crew is better than FOX….don’t hate the message!!
Logic was never intended for libs
July 24th, 2012
2:42 pm
“you poor delusional fool. We’ll see.”
When one can’t debate, name call.
Logic was never intended for libs
July 24th, 2012
2:42 pm
“DR. Maddow is quite accurate in her charting processes”
What is she a doctor of? Medicine, bio-chem?
Try again, sport.
Jefferson
July 24th, 2012
2:43 pm
The Bain problem is being pounded in the swing states and is working well it appears. Expect more.
the cat
July 24th, 2012
2:43 pm
Logic-did you have a big old plate of stupid for lunch?
Read this again, sport.
HDB
July 24th, 2012
2:32 pm
Tib/Logic…..
When you state that a businessman could better run the economy, I revert to the Bush yaers (the latest businessman to affect the economy)…and discovered this tidbit:
From Feb. 2002 through June 2004, George W. Bush created a net total of 851,000 jobs. Average: 29.3K per month. Don’t forget to add 750K job LOSSES monthly during Bush’s second term……
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth
Obama: 4.2 million jobs; 140K per month.
Looks like a better average to me…….
Private sector total: 786,000 (Avg. 27.1K per month
Logic was never intended for libs
July 24th, 2012
2:44 pm
“and her research crew is better than FOX”
That must explain why her ratings are far behind Fox News. I saw Jay Bookman on her show one night and this was their exchange.
Maddow: Mr. Bookman, can you explain the tea party in GA?
Bookman: Uh…uh…uh..uh…(face turns red)…uh…
Yep, bright people there.
Logic was never intended for libs
July 24th, 2012
2:44 pm
“Logic-did you have a big old plate of stupid for lunch?”
And the childish insults continue.
Grow up, sport.
Jefferson
July 24th, 2012
2:45 pm
Un American for a president to bank overseas.
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
July 24th, 2012
2:45 pm
50% of GE’s jobs are now overseas. That was such a good record that Barry made Jeff Immelt, GE CEO, the chairman of his jobs committee, which he has never convened or met with.
Logic was never intended for libs
July 24th, 2012
2:45 pm
“Obama: 4.2 million jobs; 140K per month.”
LOLOLOLOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Then explain why unemployment just went back up?
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
July 24th, 2012
2:46 pm
HDB, I’ve come to expect nothing less than simplistic responses to complex issues from you, and I’m never disappointed.
First, you use the BLS numbers to create the “net” jobs created by GWB in the first 2 1/2 years of his term, then you use the quoted figure by the Obama campaign (rather than the same BLS numbers you used above) to tell us how many jobs Obama allegedly created.
Hate to burst your bubble, son, but that work of fiction is a lie.
Using the same figures you linked to, GWb created a net gain of 723k jobs during the first 2 1/2 years he served.
During that same time frame, the BLS numbers showed that Obama LOST 3.068 million jobs in his first 2 1/2 years in office.
Epic fail, HDB.
the cat
July 24th, 2012
2:47 pm
What is Romney hiding in those tax returns? what is he and Ann Coulter scared of coming out?
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
July 24th, 2012
2:47 pm
Jefferson
Hazardous, to mention UN American and president in the same sentence.
HDB
July 24th, 2012
2:47 pm
Logic…start with AMPAD, GST Steel, Sensata for Bain’s business prectives…..and more from the Washington Post…
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/romneys-bain-capital-invested-in-companies-that-moved-jobs-overseas/2012/06/21/gJQAsD9ptV_story.html?hpid=z1
Rafe….NASA funding was cut under Bush..so should they blame Obama for Bush’s (and CONGRESS’) cuts??
the cat
July 24th, 2012
2:47 pm
As usual Tibs is getting his info from pullitoutofmybackside.com
Logic was never intended for libs
July 24th, 2012
2:47 pm
“google is your friend. not doing the work for what I know is true.”
So you can’t back up your claims. Got it.