2012 Tuesday: Millions of dollars might not buy a T-SPLOST
Each month, Barack Obama and Mitt Romney — and their respective parties and PACs — report their fund-raising totals. One result is a monthly debate about the propriety of big money in politics, and many participants in that debate begin with the apparent assumption that money is everything in an election.
On the local level, however, we are watching the final days of a campaign in which a gilt Goliath appears mortally wounded by a dollar-poor David. Yes, I’m talking about the T-SPLOST.
The pro-tax campaign yesterday finally released its financial statements (on the last day of its past-due grace period), and it shows pretty much what we all expected: a campaign that has had millions of dollars to persuade voters to tax themselves $7.2 billion during the next 10 years to fund transportation. Here’s how the AJC summarized the standing of the pro- and anti-tax groups:
Citizens for Transportation Mobility — the political action committee pushing the July 31 transportation referendum in metro Atlanta — took in $6.5 million from spring 2011 through July 16, according to a campaign finance report filed Monday. Records show the group dramatically outraised opponents of the tax increase: The Transportation Leadership Coalition, which is fighting the referendum, raised $14,418.
(Full disclosure: Cox Enterprises, parent company of the AJC, donated $250,000 to the pro-tax campaign.)
That’s a 450-to-1 financial advantage for the pro-tax side, which is why virtually all the advertising you see about next week’s referendum is in support of the tax. The tax has the backing of the governor, the mayor of Atlanta and most other local and state elected officials in the 10-county region. It has the research apparatus of governmental and quasi-governmental agencies behind it. It has the area’s major businesses making not-so-subtle suggestions to their employees that they should vote for it.
And yet, according to every recent opinion poll, it’s trailing. In all but the one done for the pro-tax campaign itself, it’s trailing badly. In all that have measured support for the tax over time, that support has fallen by double-digits.
What gives?
For starters, this campaign shows once again the effectiveness of real grassroots organizations, and their ability to tap into large networks of passionate supporters at little or no cost. When the Tea Party Patriots, NAACP and Sierra Club all decide to oppose something, their members tend to be much more firmly committed to that stance than are people swayed by advertising or political endorsements.
We must also acknowledge that any effort to increase taxes amid a still-stagnant economy is something of an uphill climb, even when the purported payoff — easier commutes — affects many people’s everyday lives. That said, the most believable poll two months ago was not one that showed the tax ahead or behind by double-digits, but the one that showed it at 42 percent for and 45 percent against, with the rest of the people undecided. Given the nature of Atlanta’s transportation needs, the referendum was bound to be close despite the economy and the low level of trust in government when it comes to transportation. (And, for the record, I still think it will be fairly very close in the end: single-digits either way.)
But the most important factor — and really the only way this campaign’s financing and evolution are similar to the presidential race — is the ability of those proposing a change to make their case clearly and effectively. Barack Obama’s approval ratings may still be mediocre, but all the money in the world won’t help Mitt Romney if he can’t convince the American people he is suitable alternative. Likewise, traffic in Atlanta may be exasperating for a lot of people, but all the money in the world won’t help the folks at Untie Atlanta if they don’t have a credible pitch about how the tax revenues will help reduce traffic congestion.
And that’s where I think the referendum is in danger of failing.
The message from the pro-tax side has gone something like this:
1. Traffic is bad.
2. Look, there are a lot of projects!
3. In the end, we have to do something.
While hardly anyone disputes Nos. 1 and 3, a great deal of people doubt No. 2 is an adequate bridge between them. To be honest, the pro-tax side has hardly tried to convince the doubters otherwise. It’s simply harped even more on Nos. 1 and 3.
That means there’s no clear, coherent message about how the T-SPLOST projects will help the region today, from the urban core to the suburbs. There is no consistent narrative about how the projects work together in a specific corridor or chokepoint. To the degree the message is something other than “trust us; it’ll work,” the message is the map with 157 projects scattered across it. And that map has become a regional Rorschach test that leaves it to individuals to see future relief or wasted money.
In large part, that’s the fault of the people who put the list together, not the ones now tasked with selling it to the public. But however the blame is eventually assigned if the referendum does indeed fail, that’s the central failure of the T-SPLOST — and the crucial task for whoever has to pick up the pieces if Plan B becomes necessary.
– By Kyle Wingfield
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403 comments Add your comment
Logic was never intended for libs
July 24th, 2012
11:06 am
” On the other hand outsmarting the Land of the Teanuts isn’t rocket science.”
Delta is ready when you are.
Jefferson
July 24th, 2012
11:08 am
It may just pass.
Slick Rick
July 24th, 2012
11:08 am
A little edumacation for the edumacationally challenged: a “sugar plum” is a small round piece of sugary candy; in common usage as applied to an individual it indicates affection, good spirit or lightheartedness.
Thusly, it is not derogatory in any way, and certainly infinitely less so than “clown” or “moonbat.” I’ve long suspected Kyle of favoring those with whom he is more ideologically inclined and he has just now proven this to be true.
Aquagirl
July 24th, 2012
11:08 am
So why do other SPLOSTs routinely pass in this region?
For starters most are county, not region wide. For instance a Cobb SPLOST is much easier because people aren’t screaming about a park for “those people” 50 miles away.
A Realist
July 24th, 2012
11:09 am
How about this?
If the referendum fails – institute a new $1 toll on GA400 that will help pay for an extension of MARTA up to Windward Pkwy?
….naaah…
Kyle Wingfield
July 24th, 2012
11:10 am
Road @ 11:04: My understanding is the revenues have continued to come in at or above projections, while the current and future payments have decreased. So there’s no other money being used. I had the same thought at first.
And it’s not that they have “more legislators”: Legislative districts have to be within a very small margin of one another (1%, off the top of my head), and they were just redrawn. It’s just that they have enough legislators — legislators who were Democrats when Democrats were in charge, and Republicans now that the GOP’s in charge — to be useful to the leadership.
Btw, congressional districts are drawn to be equal, within one single voter of one another, so it’s not really the case that congressional balancing takes money away from a large population and gives it to a smaller one. It is true, however, that needs for the funding may be unequal even among equal populations.
Jose
July 24th, 2012
11:11 am
if fulton, dekalb and city of atlanta need to get projects done……….. why don’t they raise the taxes in their counties? why should other counties subsidize them?
Common Cents
July 24th, 2012
11:13 am
Even if the math is off, the point is the same; $6.5 million would have gone a long to way to funding projects that these businesses believe would help their bottom line. Instead, every five seconds on television I have to be subjected to commercials about why little Timmy’s mother is stuck in traffic and can’t pick him up for baseball practice. I also wonder how much of that $7 billion will go to overhead and waste as it has with projects in the past. Maybe if politicians spent less time campaigning, raising money for campaigning and lining their own pockets, we would have the funds neccesary to make changes in transportation.
Kyle Wingfield
July 24th, 2012
11:14 am
Slick Rick: Your comment was complete without it, and your tone didn’t exactly connote “affection, good spirit or lightheartedness.” Any more discussion on this point can be handled via email. Otherwise, it’s a needless distraction from the topic at hand.
ByteMe
July 24th, 2012
11:14 am
So why do other SPLOSTs routinely pass in this region?
For starters most are county, not region wide.
Near as I can tell, it’s not “most”, but “all”. Smaller geographic space, fewer attempts to play one group off another.
Shrink the “region” to include only Fulton, Dekalb, Clayton, Cobb, and Gwinnett and the results change. Add in the exurbs who have less vested interest in a vibrant city center and you get results that reflect that population’s diverse interests.
Dialing Plan B now….
Kyle Wingfield
July 24th, 2012
11:15 am
Aquagirl @ 11:08: I tend to agree with the problem being about the design of the entire process. My point was simply that having a list doesn’t necessarily doom a SPLOST, because SPLOSTs always have lists and they almost always pass.
JDW
July 24th, 2012
11:16 am
@kyle…”So why do other SPLOSTs routinely pass in this region?”
Pretty good question and one that should be considered. Maybe it’s too much information. Aren’t the other SPLOSTS less defined…say for education infrastructure rather than a specific list.
ByteMe
July 24th, 2012
11:16 am
If the referendum fails – institute a new $1 toll on GA400 that will help pay for an extension of MARTA up to Windward Pkwy?
I want a $2 toll on any high-speed road leading into Fulton or Dekalb with the money earmarked for transit only. It needs to be nearly the cost of a ticket on MARTA.
Let the suburbs stall while the inner city rocks. Then they’ll change their tune.
dc
July 24th, 2012
11:16 am
Kyle, IMO, other splosts get approved because they are “in one county”. The idea of paying a tax for the Atlanta beltline, Marta, and streetcar line is galling to suburbanites. And paying for roads is galling to a set of intown folks.
I had no issue voting for gwinnett parks to be built, or schools. But wouldn’t have voted for it if we were combined w/ another county, and then it was left up to “backroom negotiations” as to which county got the proceeds. And since pretty much every one of these projects will cost way more than the estimate (duh….as with all major projects), there will end up being a number of them that get delayed or killed. I have no faith in the group that will make these decisions.
ByteMe
July 24th, 2012
11:17 am
Aren’t the other SPLOSTS less defined…say for education infrastructure rather than a specific list.
No. The E-SPLOSTS specify the schools to receive the money and the projects to be done with it.
Kyle Wingfield
July 24th, 2012
11:18 am
ByteMe @ 11:14: I tend to agree the geography will change in Plan B. And if it fails in other regions, I’d take a long, hard look at letting a subdivision of this region and a subdivision of others team up to form their own region. I’m thinking in particular of a region with Bartow/Paulding/Cherokee — and maybe even Cobb and/or Douglas (maybe not).
Road Scholar
July 24th, 2012
11:19 am
How about , if the Tsplost does not pass in certain counties/areas, they do not get funding for transportation in their area….I mean since they see no need…? I know that is childish, but so is some of the anti rhetoric concerning me, me , me…and I don’t trust anybody (Heck you voted for these fools!) I know they pay the gas tax, but w/o needs being addressed for the region…
Oh and let’s close down the express bus program ,a hit for the outlying counties, and MARTA. Let all those on crowded GRTA /CCT buses and MARTA trains get in their cars and let’s see how bad congestion can get! I 285 at I20, I85, and I75- pack a lunch…and dinner…just do not drink.. remember there are no bathrooms while you wait. Oh and you may as well suck on a tailpipe as it relates to pollution the result of added congestion. Do you or your kids have respiratory problems?
Jose
July 24th, 2012
11:20 am
t-splost logic
dekalb, fulton and city of atlanta cannot manage our budgets very well so we need others to pay money to us to reward us for mismanagement
Kyle Wingfield
July 24th, 2012
11:21 am
ByteMe @ 11:16: Put a $2 toll on those roads, and I predict we’ll watch what’s left of the businesses that don’t have to be in Atlanta flee to the suburbs. Most of the people in this region already live OTP as it is; what makes you think raising the Atlanta “premium” (to borrow a phrase from Mayor Bloomberg) will make Atlanta more attractive, not less?
Aquagirl
July 24th, 2012
11:22 am
Near as I can tell, it’s not “most”, but “all”.
I can’t recall any previous regional SPLOSTs but I figured the moment I said “all” somebody would bring up the Regional Bigfoot Preservation SPLOST of 1963.
JDW
July 24th, 2012
11:22 am
Thanks ByteMe, I couldn’t remember. I think your 11:14 is probably a good hypothesis. Seems to me the Legislature should do their job on the region wide bit and let the counties have local control on the remainder.
ByteMe
July 24th, 2012
11:23 am
I’d take a long, hard look at letting a subdivision of this region and a subdivision of others team up to form their own region.
YES. That’s exactly right. Let a “region” get formed because they want to be part of it… but also give the regional planning groups the ability to create and manage their own tax and spending schemes without having the legislature get in the middle of it.
Oh, and roll MARTA into whatever planning region involved Fulton/Dekalb so that the name — and screwy governing structure — dies while the assets continue to serve the region.
ByteMe
July 24th, 2012
11:25 am
ByteMe @ 11:16: Put a $2 toll on those roads, and I predict we’ll watch what’s left of the businesses that don’t have to be in Atlanta flee to the suburbs
Your prediction is based on what? New York City? How much does it cost to drive onto Manhattan these days from Jersey? What about driving into Boston? Same thing.
There’s a reason cities form and it has nothing to do with low taxes for driving into them.
Jose
July 24th, 2012
11:25 am
give a credible plan and the outlying counties will BUY IN
but AS IS
no way
the projects listed will not alleviate traffic and create jobs
its a hodge podge of uncoordinated projects
give us a plan that details WHAT will be done and HOW it will alleviate traffic that are connected
Common Cents
July 24th, 2012
11:26 am
Here’s another question: The ARRA Stimulus funds that we received, why didn’t any of those funds go towards these projects if they were “so pressing” for the continued growth of Georgia? We received $960,059,863 for transportation projects of which we have spent $665,054,863 on projects so far (4 projects- 2 of which created no new jobs).
Jefferson
July 24th, 2012
11:28 am
Its gaining ground and the ads are effective.
Road Scholar
July 24th, 2012
11:28 am
Kyle: “My understanding is the revenues have continued to come in at or above projections…”
Understood, but what were those “excess/future” monies being saved for? A rainy day? I think not. Gena Evans/SRTA has not collected a dollar they didn’t expect to spend!
“..needs for the funding may be unequal even among equal populations.”
Exactly! Why do you think the law was changed in the early 2000’s? That is one reason the Grip bonds were “misspent” as to need. 4 laning 2 lane state routes with 10,000 veh a day in 2025 or later does not make sense, esp since these roads have numerous at grade intersections and esp when we have roads in the Atlanta area with over 25,000 veh a day NOW that won’t get improved.
ByteMe
July 24th, 2012
11:28 am
give a credible plan and the outlying counties will BUY IN
No, they won’t. Cherokee County is exactly where Cobb County was 15 years ago. They don’t want any of the projects that will make the city center better, because they’re so far removed from high density population centers. In 15 years, that will change again, but not now.
Jefferson
July 24th, 2012
11:29 am
They are paying folks to vote also.
Kyle Wingfield
July 24th, 2012
11:31 am
ByteMe: Have you been to downtown Atlanta lately? You really think it’s comparable to Manhattan or Boston?
One of the necessary steps in making this area work together like a region is for the city of Atlanta to recognize the suburbs believe they can live without it. And the gradual shift of jobs northward toward Perimeter and beyond tends to prove them right. The APS mess did more to thwart the city of Atlanta’s attractiveness to potential residents than a T-SPLOST “no” vote will. (Come to think of it, the Metro Chamber was involved with both…
Kyle Wingfield
July 24th, 2012
11:33 am
I’m heading to that family funeral now. Thanks to everyone for the condolences. I’ll be back online later.
Road Scholar
July 24th, 2012
11:33 am
Jose: So you never leave your county to travel elsewhere?
Common sense: Because these projects are not “shovel ready”. Most of the Tsplost projects have not been designed; money is needed to accelerate these projects into design and construction.
Jose
July 24th, 2012
11:34 am
COMMON CENTS
HOW DARE YOU QUESTION THINGS………. YOU MUST HATE THE CHILDREN WHO ARE WAITING ON MOMMY WHO IS STUCK IN TRAFFIC
god forbid we AUDIT how transportation money is spent
Too much money involved, let the graft and corruption begin
July 24th, 2012
11:34 am
Road Scholar, I typically don’t vote for any incumbent in any election if I can help it and I definitely support term limits. Term limits should apply to all elected offices as well as the courts etc. It’s only fair.
Road Scholar
July 24th, 2012
11:36 am
Kyle; Sorry for your loss.
Jefferson: Proof please. Also, how does the payer know the payee actually voted? For Tsplost?
Road Scholar
July 24th, 2012
11:38 am
Too much: Understood. But what about the others who do not trust their officials? How do they get re-elected to multiple term?
Common Cents
July 24th, 2012
11:38 am
@Jose: Yes, I definitely hate those kids, considering that I commute from East Cobb to Emory/Clairmont Rd. area everyday and I have two children.
Don’t forget the Dept. of Energy lesson, people…
ByteMe
July 24th, 2012
11:39 am
Have you been to downtown Atlanta lately? You really think it’s comparable to Manhattan or Boston?
Yes, actually, I have. And Manhattan and Boston. In some ways, each is better, in some ways each is worse. Transit is better in the other places, obviously. The general vibe is warmer in Atlanta.
The suburbs want those businesses? Great! How will people get to them if they’re stuck in traffic or have to pay a $2 toll to get to I-285? And that’s when they start to realize that maybe Atlanta knew something they didn’t. Or they don’t realize it, but they’re still in the same place anyway.
Sorry for your loss. Funerals suck.
@@
July 24th, 2012
11:39 am
Is it too much to ask the City of Atlanta to clean up their own mess before gaining more access to mine?
Common Cents
July 24th, 2012
11:40 am
@Road Scholar: So, are we just impatient people who can’t invest that money and sit on it until the projects are “shovel ready”? We have it so let’s spend it mentality is what got us where we are today. Make decisions in haste and repent in leisure.
Aquagirl
July 24th, 2012
11:40 am
My point was simply that having a list doesn’t necessarily doom a SPLOST, because SPLOSTs always have lists and they almost always pass.
True, my point is that list in a county is more understandable and up-close for a citizen of a county. If we had a regional SPLOST on almost anything it would most likely fail. Imagine a regional education SPLOST. Oh the humanity!
Problem is, transportation in this region has become…well, regional. It’s not like education where somebody can move to Cherokee and the crappy APS schools won’t as greatly affect their house values.
Transportation planning is pretty complicated anyhow, a seemingly no-brainer project X might not be on the list because of some obscure reason. All the average Joe can see is that project X isn’t included and therefore this list is stupid.
Tay
July 24th, 2012
11:44 am
JDW @ 10:42: You are spot on!
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
July 24th, 2012
11:46 am
Kyle, each side spends crazy amounts of money to sway a few voters, but in the end Common Sense usually has the biggest say in who wins. Lie, deceive, and spread all the smoke you can, people usually see through the deception. They know that the projects are thrown together with little thought and planning and will do little to improve congestion. They know the tax is a lifetime millstone around their neck, as taxes never go away.
That is also why Obama is in such trouble. He continues to try and keep the focus on anything but his record, but the people, with common sense, are coming around to see his policies are the reason, we are in this mess.
They are all going down; first Joe PA, then TSplost, and then O Bom MA.
@@
July 24th, 2012
11:47 am
JDW’s 10:42 could just as easily apply to Obama and his “care” (Obamacare) campaign.
james
July 24th, 2012
11:53 am
Too much state and city government waste these
past 2 decades by corrupt people… I and many
others will vote NO on T-splost… It will make
no difference to traffic if it did…
Why give these pigs another penny??
Jose
July 24th, 2012
11:54 am
road scholar
the vast majority of my time driving is on INTERSTATE HIGHWAYS, STATE HIGHWAYS and local roads IN COUNTIES NOT FULTON, DEKALB OR CITY OF ATLANTA
would love to support TSPLOST if they could show HOW the projects would reduce traffic
but deep down you know that alot of the projects will HAVE NO AFFECT
Common Cents
July 24th, 2012
11:56 am
@ Rafe: I love the screen name, BTW!
JDW
July 24th, 2012
12:02 pm
@@@…”JDW’s 10:42 could just as easily apply to Obama and his “care” (Obamacare) campaign.”
As it relates to the Republican’s in Congress you are quite correct…they did not do their job and have not for a great many years relative to healthcare. As far as Obamacare in general, no doubt it turned out to be an interim step that will require further action.
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
July 24th, 2012
12:03 pm
Road
The rural areas (120 out of 160 counties/COA) , while not having more voters, have more legislators!
Not true, they are apportioned just like congressman. The county unit system died years ago. The county I grew up in used to share a state rep with two or three other counties. Now he represents about 9 or 10 counties. The same for the state Senator. Most of the state legislature resides in and around the suburban and exurban counties, where the traffic is so awful.
Road Scholar
July 24th, 2012
12:03 pm
Jose: Traffic will not be reduced…congestion will! Transit could divert traffic from roads.