2012 Tuesday: Polls show clear decline for T-SPLOST support (Updated)
Opinion polls for the presidential race, even when broken down by state, are too far out from Election Day to tell us very much. But the T-SPLOST referendum, which is just two weeks away? That’s different — and a few new polls show us where the momentum lies.
First, a Rosetta Stone Communications poll for Channel 2 Action News released last Friday showed the $7.2 billion tax for transportation projects trails 33 percent to 56 percent. That’s minus-23 percentage points, with just 12 percent saying they’re undecided. Here’s the trend for that poll, with the undecided share of the vote remaining constant:
MAY: minus-3 points (42 for, 45 against, 13 undecided)
JUNE: minus-11 points (38-49-13)
JULY: minus-23 points (33-56-12)
Net Change: minus-20 points
Next, internal polling for Untie Atlanta, the pro-tax campaign. The day after Channel 2 reported its May results, Untie Atlanta released an internal poll showing the measure was winning by 15 percentage points. Today, the campaign’s Twitter account quoted Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed saying, “We have a poll that says 38-41.” The AJC is awaiting confirmation from the mayor as to whether this is another internal poll for Untie Atlanta or his own poll. UPDATED at 2:45 p.m.: The poll was done by the same firm, Hill Research Consultants. I can’t say if the same methodology was used, because we’ve gotten little in the way of explanatory information each time, but I infer that we are talking about more or less the same poll in July as in May. If it’s the former so, that means there’s been a significant increase in the undecided vote — and that the trajectory according to the pro-tax side is:
MAY: +15 points (51-36-13)
JULY: minus-3 points (38-41-21)
Net Change: minus-18 points
While those two polls show different starting and ending points for the tax’s popularity, I find it very interesting that the change over time is almost identical to that of Channel 2’s poll.
The only other poll that has tracked the tax’s popularity over time, at least as far as I’m aware, is Survey USA’s poll for 11 Alive News, which reported yesterday that the tax trails by 13 percentage points in metro Atlanta. The arc for that poll is:
FEBRUARY: minus-1 point (36-37-27)
JULY: minus-13 points (36-49-15)
Net Change: minus-12 points
Note that all of the movement in that poll has been from “undecided” to “no.”
To recap: All three of the most recent polls show a double-digit decline in support for the tax so far, and not one of them currently puts support for the tax at even 40 percent.
One important caveat here is that turnout for the referendum is expected to be very low — so anything could happen, depending on which side simply gets its voters to show up on July 31. That said, if the opinion polls are even close to accurate, the multimillion-dollar campaign to promote the tax is shaping up as the biggest bust since Roy Barnes’ 2002 re-election campaign.
– By Kyle Wingfield
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86 comments Add your comment
Hillbilly D
July 17th, 2012
4:50 pm
In my experience with 40+ years of Atl traffic, every time a fix was promised, it lasted about a fraction of the time it took to build the fix.
And that won’t change because if traffic were to ease a bit, they would just move out a little bit and go for another round of wide open development. They haven’t learned a thing.
Road Scholar
July 17th, 2012
4:55 pm
I’m fixated on the comments about not trusting our legislators, local governments and GDOT. Since this is a predominate conservative state, the people who were elected are not trusted, i.e.Republicans. Those same legislators vote in each congressional districts for their rep on the GDOT Board, i.e. Republicans. The Board selects the GDOT Commissioner as well as the remainder of the upper echelon of management at GDOT i.e. Deputy Commissioner, Treasurer, Chief Engineer, etc. The Governor, a repub, selects the Planning Director at GDOT, who is responsible for project selection in not only the yearly program but also the TSPLOST programs around the state. It is safe to say the Planning Director is a repub.
The TSPLOST has a citizen review board which is to ensure the money is spent correctly, the projects on the list are delivered in a timely manner, and to be accountable to all the citizens. Since our decision makers are all repub, isn’t it safe to assume the CRB will be mostly, if not all repub.This is how this state works.
So if all decision makers, administrators, and program reviewers are repub, and they can not be trusted, then shouldn’t the anti’s leave their party, and begin another party that is self righteous, Christian only, and experts on everything. Their motto could be ( esp for the future TSPLOST) ” My Way or the Highway!”
How could the conservatives be so wrong as to elect these thieves and liars to office…repeatedly…?
Finally, the comment above about in the NE district, 140% return for Hall County- Maybe, due to population, commerce, traffic etc. Hall County has more congestion than the other counties? Huh? Hall County/Gainesville is the economic center of NE Georgia. If not…name me one larger?
Swann
July 17th, 2012
4:59 pm
They lost me when they kept the toll on 400 and then followed up the the PeachPass debacle. Won’t be supporting ANY additional SPLOSTs, school, transportation or otherwise. Raise the state sales tax rate to 5% and raise the income tax rate to 6.5% and let everyone share in the pain.
Hillbilly D
July 17th, 2012
5:01 pm
Finally, the comment above about in the NE district, 140% return for Hall County- Maybe, due to population, commerce, traffic etc. Hall County has more congestion than the other counties? Huh? Hall County/Gainesville is the economic center of NE Georgia. If not…name me one larger?
They also have enough votes to just about vote the tax in by themselves, which is the point. They get the sweet pot, so they profit from voting for it and let the other counties pay for it. That’s not fair, in my opinion. It’s not equal representation.
Since this is a predominate conservative state, the people who were elected are not trusted, i.e.Republicans.
I didn’t trust them when they were Democrats, either.
Red
July 17th, 2012
5:03 pm
If the Sierra Club, the NAACP, and the TEA party unite and line up against something like this-albeit for completely different reasons- it was flawed and doomed from the start.
Besides, I rather enjoy my 82 minutes of ‘ME’ time to and from work everyday. I don’t know if I could get by with only 76 minutes…
Road Scholar
July 17th, 2012
5:08 pm
Hillbilly: Didn’t the project list get defined through a committee that represented all counties and some cities in the area?
Michael H. Smith
July 17th, 2012
5:10 pm
It is hilarious to see the misguided underlying hope of the socialist democrats on this blog that misinterpret a healthy distrust of Republican politicians as an indicator for a potential democrat socialist liberal come back in this State.
BG
July 17th, 2012
5:10 pm
Based on: (a) the way gov’t wastes money; (b) GDOT’s removal of a normal travel lane on I-85; and (c) GDOT’s spending of any money to “study” adding toll lanes to GA 400 and to create bottlenecks with a shoulder lane on parts of GA 400, I wouldn’t vote to give it another penny at all. I don’t trust those folks, and plan to vote NO on the 31st.
John Galt
July 17th, 2012
5:17 pm
Road Scholar,
Do you actually believe that once enacted, that A CRB will have the authority to stop a project? And if so, who elected these people?
Can you name any GDOT projects that came in on time and under budget? Of course not.
Can you identify any GDOT projects that were cancelled once they were projected to exceed their original estimates by say, 20%?
Of course not.
Once again we stack layer upon layer of complexity, alleviating direct responsibility and accountability.
Vote No.
I see you are really big on these committees that defined the project list. Do you think they will be accountable in three years?
Of course not.
Vote No.
Grasshopper
July 17th, 2012
5:36 pm
The list of projects is a joke. It’s full of improvements and upgrades that we already pay taxes for. Vote no on this dog of a tax increase.
yuzeyurbrane
July 17th, 2012
5:39 pm
I propose that we cancel Artie Blank’s new taxpayer financed pleasure dome and use the funds saved to at least start funding those transportation projects that have merit. Or to hire back furloughed school teachers. Or just about any of a dozen other worthwhile things that need state financial backing.
Common Sense
July 17th, 2012
5:40 pm
I am somehow reminded of my kid coming home from school, and requesting funds from me for something at school that I have already funded via property taxes.
Jim
July 17th, 2012
5:48 pm
Hooray! With the failure of the T-SPLOST, we’ll be able to doom Atlanta to another generation of business unfriendly gridlock and congestion. Now I can dream about the extra penny I’ll save as I enjoy my hour-long commute every weekday morning and afternoon.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
July 17th, 2012
5:49 pm
“Why don’t you apply to the Citizens oversight committee (in the bill) to ensure proper expenditure on the project list, the projects are delivered on time and on budget, etc.?”
Silly Road Scholar. That “oversight” committee will be packed with hacks. That’s what government does – ensures a desired result despite what citizens actually want.
Michael H. Smith
July 17th, 2012
5:52 pm
I’ll be glad when this thing is defeated, perhaps then we can get an ENTIRELY DIFFERENT PLAN past.
1. Voters must vote on extending the T-SPLOST after a voter approved acceptable date.
2. No money for MARTA.
3. All money spent for passenger rapid rail service shall be for a Statewide system under State board authority.
That will at least get my favorable attention to wheel and deal on road projects.
Hillbilly D
July 17th, 2012
6:04 pm
Tiberius @ 5:49
Yeah, a lot like the DOT Board.
md
July 17th, 2012
6:05 pm
You ain’t seen nothing yet……..wait until Obamadoesntcare is fully enacted and the State is required to cover the cost of the program not covered by the feds………and folks are already complaining about furloughed teachers now……….
Michael H. Smith
July 17th, 2012
6:06 pm
Hillbilly D @ 6:04 pm
Or the MARTA Board.
John Galt
July 17th, 2012
6:17 pm
The irony is that if we thought we really were getting a bang for our bucks, we’d be throwing money at them for better transportation.
But for every dollar we spend we get about 50 cents worth of value.
Lack of accountability and a 10 year stream of revenue is what most rational folks call a recipe for fiscal disaster.
One only has to look at the first budget in Peachtree Corners(where they will be accountable in four years) to see just how fast folks are willing to waste Other People’s Money.
sheepdawg
July 17th, 2012
6:28 pm
great job reporting kyle — vote no to t-splost!!!
Road Scholar
July 17th, 2012
6:52 pm
Tib: What a defeatist attitude! Why not apply, and when you are not selected and see the selectees…make that comment. Be careful what you ask for…you may get selected ! If that attitude is ok than why criticize a poor person who might say…I’ll never get out of the poor house, I may as well not try! You are better than that! So are they!
John Galt:
1. Yes. The money limit is set. Projects that go over budget will be lessened in scope, or done away with. B) Do not understand the question.
2. The 17th Street Bridge and approaches contracts were delivered on time and constructed within the contract duration.The design phase was allotted 1/2 the usual time to prepare the design, do public involvement, get environmental approval, design a non typical bridge, etc. If GDOT could control/fine the utilities, and control the weather…Most Preconstruction screw-ups were manpower or information based.
3. Outer Perimeter (amongst other reasons). In the past the need was considered most important. Recently B/C ratios are done on all projects except enhancements .
4. That is an issue. With GDOT as lean as they are with personnel and talent due to retirements and ROF, consultants have and will play a huge part of the responsibility to deliver these projects on time and on/under budget. Now for the comments of consultants/contractors getting rich… You asked for reduction of staff of government and privatization. You got it! Now you pay higher overhead and profit in addition to the wages paid to consultants. They are not in business to lose money, or not grow their companies. Ya’ know …the real job creators. Small and large, minority and white….all(no matter what Sen Fort says) will be in a position to team with others to get the job done. The have to be prequalified with Ga DOT, which is a painless process if a company submits their honest business experience and personnel experience.
5. They are accountable NOW! They will stay accountable esp if you/the public/and the politicians keeps them accountable. If this would ever come to a vote again…they would still be accountable for the process adopted.
I also feel the same way on the CRC once they are selected!
Yes, I may be too optimistic for some…but I’d rather work towards the positive than take a defeatist attitude.I don’t see how some of the bloggers get out of bed in the morning! Maybe they have a laptop! Color me naive? OK. But color me successful, healthy and retired!
There are many dedicated competent people at GDOT. Yes, there are some who do not pull their fair share and earn their wages. But they are in the distinct minority of workers there. (That was NOT racial) They are younger. They are somewhat inexperienced compared to past years/regimes. But they can learn, perform, and deliver with quality, ethics, and on schedule, given the resources.
GDOT got criticized for the snow plan, or alledgedly a lack thereof, a few years ago. But you probably don’t remember the Olympics. You probably don’t remember the great floods in south Georgia in the 1990′ s, and some of the other weather related responses (hurricane evacuations, etc.), that went unnoticed. You typically speed by the HERO trucks assisting others, that is unless you’ve broken down. The people at GDOT CAN rise to the occasion if they are given your support. Not meant to be preachy, but this is how I feel based on experiences.
Michael Smith: Ah yes Michael…By Republican do you mean the rino’s, conservatives, true conservatives or only those you agree with? Oh and your mind reading is messed up. I said nothing about the dems coming back. Although as disorganized that they are, a comeback is the only alternative to staying inconsequential. Maybe a third party….
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
July 17th, 2012
7:12 pm
Road Scholar, remember, I worked in government. I’ve seen first-hand how these people operate.
I suspect you can’t make that same claim.
Samantha
July 17th, 2012
7:13 pm
The politicians that are pimping TSPLOST should have thought about the difficulties of actually selling the project to taxpayers. It seems the politicians were all too glad to get pet projects funded rather than driving to fix our traffic woes. Now that it’s time to face the voters they want to talk about how TSPLOST is all about helping traffic.
NONSENSE!
TSPLOST is about funding pet projects, a veneer of traffic projects and a massive involuntary reengineering of how Atlantans live and work. I am voting NO.
Kyle Wingfield
July 17th, 2012
7:25 pm
All: Here’s your nightly reminder that comments will be in moderation until tomorrow morning.
Road Scholar
July 17th, 2012
7:34 pm
Ti: Oh yes I can!
Cutty
July 17th, 2012
7:35 pm
The grand scheme thought of, and voted for by Republicans, will somehow end up being a democrat’s fault by the next election. Legislators are paid to make the tough decisions, not kick the can to a bunch of uneducated yahoos that see the word ‘tax’ and automatically say no. Had it been a ‘fee’ they would’ve all for it. Just like all the other fees the republicans have placed upon them.
Vote NO for TSPLOST !!!!
July 17th, 2012
8:06 pm
To Kyle Wingfield: You wrote to Atlanta Native: ” No, what I wrote is that congestion makes up only a small portion of the average commuter’s daily travel time — about 10 minutes out of an hour.”
Obviously you are not sitting in traffic in the morning’s from North Gwinnett County heading south to on I-85. What they have done to I-85 is ridiculous!!!! This added a good 30 mintues to a commute minimum…..between the 316 to I-85 South debacle, realigning Pleasant Hill Road exit, and then – of course – our PRECIOUS HOV -pay as you like- debacle. What our state has done here in Gwinnett County – I’ll kiss your foot if the T-SPLOST remotely flies by in GWINNETT!!
VOTE NO FOR THIS HORRIBLE T-SPLOST. Again, these politicians have not done their due diligence here on this at all – nor if anyone looks at the above have they in the past…I am sure the good folks who travel GA 400 everyday appreciate “still paying tolls!!!” NO for the T-SPLAT!!!
FURTHER – WE DO NOT WANT MARTA in GWINNETT. GWINNETT voters consistely voted out MARTA in this county and then our fine Commissioners voted in their own transit system – usurping the wishes of their constituents. Well they ALL WERE VOTED OUT after this happened years ago.
Intown
July 17th, 2012
9:43 pm
If this T-SPLOST fails you are going to see major projects in Atlanta shelved for a generation. You’re also going to see the region fragment — with the “winners” being a gain in political power by the northern suburbs to the detriment of the entire region and indirectly the state. Unless you like living in a gated community in a suburb of the Detroit of the South, I suggest you vote “yes.”
Shep
July 17th, 2012
10:01 pm
I am voting against this measure. It’s not just about the extra taxes but the fact that this is no more than a list of one-off cherry-picked projects that are going to do very little to address the overall traffic issues in the entire metro Atlanta area. First, we need to know exactly what the problem is that needs addressing, come up with a workable plan to address them and then find a way to fund and implement the infrastructure needed. This needs a coordiate state lead effort to address with real leaders will to make real decisions.
Shine
July 17th, 2012
11:47 pm
The Republican kooks can take back the latest round of corporate welfare dished out by the legislature and signed by kook Deal and fund some transportation projects. I am pennied to death with state, LOST, SPLOST, and ESPLOST sales taxes.
Ellis
July 17th, 2012
11:54 pm
Voting no for two reasons:
1. “Temporary” taxes never are. This was demonstrated very clearly when they failed to end the GA-400 toll. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.
2. SRTA has not shown that they will do anything good with the money to free up traffic. This was demonstrated with the I-85 Peach-lane fiasco. They spent millions and made traffic worse.
No … I think the only thing a “yes” vote will do here is make things worse, and take money from the economy. As bad as it is now, it CAN get worse when the government tries to fix it.
Ralph Christian
July 18th, 2012
12:24 am
I am with “curious” above. Crooked Deal’s endorsement of it is enough to convince me to vote NO!!!! I’m sure he and his band are going to profit from a YES vote.
Pavel
July 18th, 2012
12:25 am
If you are thinking that if this proposal is defeated the legislature will go back and work on improving it, think again. The legislators are very risk averse and a defeat would make this topic politically toxic for the foreseeable future. Second, don’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good. With the exception of our freeway system, Atlanta’s transportation infrastructure is way undersized for a metro area of nearly 6 million people. This project list is not perfect but its the best our current leaders could assemble in this day and age. If we have any hope of moving froward as a society, we must remember the value of compromise.
SabrinaClarke
July 18th, 2012
4:09 pm
This election is going to be a close one but I don’t think that people fully realize this referendum will have on the region. No one likes a tax increase but to make the drastic improvements that our region needs this is the best plan set forth. The only alternatives that we would have would be more hot lanes and more toll roads. What we have done thus far is not working but is only a band aid for the issue.
Al of Cumming
July 24th, 2012
7:54 am
This gets a “NO” vote from everyone in our family. I cannot think of a more regressive tax than this one. It hits those who can least afford it the most. A plan B needs to be developed that puts more of the cost of highway improvements right on the users in the form of increased gasoline taxes and/or registration fees. Our family has two vehicles, driving them a total of about 5000 miles per year because we work out of our home and do not commute. It is unfair to expect us to pay another 1% for everything we buy because we make very little use of the highway system during peak traffic hours. Another issue involves where the money is to be spent. Why spend about 52% of the dollars collected to benefit the roughly 5% of those who use public transportation? That is not responsible use of tax dollars from my perspective.
2012 Tuesday: Millions of dollars might not buy a T-SPLOST | Kyle Wingfield
July 24th, 2012
9:18 am
[...] yet, according to every recent opinion poll, it’s trailing. In all but the one done for the pro-tax campaign itself, it’s trailing [...]