Taking a look at some T-SPLOST claims
The closer we get to the July 31 T-SPLOST referendum, it seems, the more claims we hear from the pro-tax campaign about its supposed benefits. Here’s the low-down on four common claims made about the $7.2 billion tax and the 157 projects it would fund.
1. Metro Atlanta commuters already pay a “congestion tax” of $924 a year.
This figure, taken from a study by the Texas Transportation Institute, accounts for the cost of wasting fuel and time in traffic. T-SPLOST supporters argue this is an indirect “tax” on commuters, and that the 1 percent sales tax will mitigate it.
Perhaps. But they don’t acknowledge the average household stands to pay more if the T-SPLOST passes.
Commuters aren’t the only people who would pay the sales tax, so let’s look at households. Based on Census data about commuters (see page 29) and household size in the 10-county region, the household “congestion tax” would be $986 a year. A study by the Atlanta Regional Commission found the projects funded by the tax would cut congestion by 24 percent at most. So, we can expect the household “congestion tax” to fall by no more than 24 percent, or $237.
Given state revenue estimates (see second table), each household’s share of the tax would start at $447.
Of course, visitors would pay some of the $447. But if residents foot even half the bill, the savings from the “congestion tax” is just a wash. If residents bear a larger share of the burden, the T-SPLOST plus the remaining “congestion tax” will cost more than what tax supporters say we pay now.
2. The T-SPLOST will get you home faster.
The very same data used for the “congestion tax” show congestion adds relatively little to the average commute: up to 10 minutes of the hour a typical commuter spends in the car every day. Sheer distance between home and work accounts for the rest of the time.
If congestion were to fall by 24 percent, then, the average commute would shrink by less than 2.5 minutes a day — only about a minute each way.
3. The T-SPLOST will be an economic boost.
You can’t spend $7.2 billion without improving the economy, right? It’s the same theory, writ small, President Barack Obama used to justify his 2009 “stimulus” package.
But taking money out of one part of the economy and putting it in another is an awfully inefficient path to economic growth — at best. And make no mistake: Money that goes to the T-SPLOST is money that won’t go to local businesses.
Worse, it doesn’t even fit the (questionable) idea of stimulating the economy by moving future consumption into the present. Projected timelines for the projects indicate that, in the first three years, the tax will collect $1.72 billion for regional projects — but spend just $812 million. The other half of the money will be pushed into the future. It’s unlikely the spending would catch up with the tax collections until 2018.
That might be a prudent way to plan infrastructure spending, but it looks like a half-decade drag on the economy.
4. There’s no “Plan B.”
As I’ve argued before, this claim ignores the possibility of voting again on a better project list in two years. In fact, the only thing that truly precludes another option is the T-SPLOST.
That’s because we will have used the biggest available revenue-raising tool. Even if the projects prove ineffective, our only option will be to renew the tax — or find another way to pay the tens of millions of dollars a year in operating costs for the transit projects this tax will create. If we OK this tax, we likely will be stuck with it, and without other options, for decades.
– By Kyle Wingfield
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368 comments Add your comment
JamVet
July 14th, 2012
7:49 am
Tsk, tsk, tsk, Mike.
Early morning meltdowns/enraged personal insults are not good for your heart, blood pressure or emotional health.
Hope you can afford Obamacare.
I have yet to decide on this T-SPLOST issue.
The Do Nothings and the haters of our American system of governance will do what they always do. Nothing. So they are to be discounted, out of hand. As always. The fundamental question is will these projects pay dividends for the taxpayers and commuters?
A tough question to answer…
Michael H. Smith
July 14th, 2012
7:54 am
Yawn….
Wake me up when the T-SPLOST is voted down: By then brucie will have changed his name again to try and hide another one of his shameful losses.
Michael H. Smith
July 14th, 2012
7:59 am
Meanwhile Kyle…
When a few statesmen or stateswomen decide to get real about transportation expectations and gas tax funding they will probably do well by considering the three things I mentioned, particularly the one that puts the power and control back in the hands of the voters by amendment. Then I’ll put odds on it passing with very little problems.
@@
July 14th, 2012
8:05 am
Has AmVet even commented on the topic?
It would appear not.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Unexpectedly Revised Downward--Again)
July 14th, 2012
8:10 am
JamVet: The Do Nothings and the haters of our American system of governance will do what they always do. Nothing.
—————————
What are Obozo and the Democrats doing on unemployment, the deficit/debt, entitlement reform, or the record numbers of folks on welfare?
It happened on Obozo’s watch.
JamVet
July 14th, 2012
8:13 am
JamVet
July 14th, 2012
7:49 am
I have yet to decide on this T-SPLOST issue.
The Do Nothings and the haters of our American system of governance will do what they always do. Nothing. So they are to be discounted, out of hand. As always. The fundamental question is will these projects pay dividends for the taxpayers and commuters?
A tough question to answer…
A scant 16 minutes before that silly @@ post…
carlosgvv
July 14th, 2012
8:16 am
There is only one claim I would believe:
“T-SPLOST tax revenues will go to politicians and will be mostly used by them for their pet pork projects. If any of you think this tax money will go where it’s supposed to, you are truly mindless”
JamVet
July 14th, 2012
8:19 am
What are Obozo and the Democrats doing on unemployment, the deficit/debt, entitlement reform, or the record numbers of folks on welfare?
You tell me.
I am not sure how many Republicans are unemployed, receiving any number of entitlements and /oron welfare.
It has got to be a huge number though…
Lil' Barry Bailout (Unexpectedly Revised Downward--Again)
July 14th, 2012
8:20 am
I think you already know the answer, JamVet.
Obozo and the Democrats are the “Do Nothings” you speak of. Thank you for identifying the disease.
The cure comes in November.
Don Abernethy
July 14th, 2012
8:22 am
Do you really think this tax money will be used for roads etc and not end up in the pockets of those who are pushing to get it passed????
JamVet
July 14th, 2012
8:27 am
BB, prepare yourself for a second consecutive McCaining.
Seriously.
This RINO is the weakest candidate that the GOP has nominated in my lifetime. (And there have been some real stinkers!) He is destined to be a footnote in Barry’s biography.
And though I wouldn’t vote for the All Time Champion Flip Flopper in ten lifetimes, I will vote against the incumbent.
(You figure it out!)
OK, I’d love to discuss these matters more, but I’ve got a jam packed and great weekend ahead, some work (being the good capitalist that I am) and some play and must say adieu.
Play nice, everyone…
@@
July 14th, 2012
8:55 am
I have yet to decide on this T-SPLOST issue.
The fundamental question is will these projects pay dividends for the taxpayers and commuters?
A tough question to answer…
AmVet, assuming his position in that marked area of roadway known as a safety zone.
The bus stops here/there/nowhere for AmVet.
schnirt
How Inciteful Is That!
July 14th, 2012
8:59 am
Amvet,
Did you leave @@ stranded at the alter or something?
Don't Tread
July 14th, 2012
9:29 am
Thanks for the analysis, Kyle. It just reinforces my decision to vote NO (made a long time ago).
Whirled Peas
July 14th, 2012
9:53 am
Somebody please explain to me why Republicans are supporting this pig with lipstick? Once upon a time I could count on Republicans to support small government. Now it seems they just want an turn with their snots at the public trough. Here piggy, piggy, piggy.
JDW
July 14th, 2012
10:10 am
Come on Kyle, at least have the decency to put out the facts from the economic analysis.
For example
The estimate is that the $8.5 billion collected and spent will generate $34.75 in added GRP…thats a 4 to 1 return.
The measure will add 200,000 jobs…not that we need any of those around here.
34,000 of those jobs will be in construction…not that that sector needs any help
Rather than “costing” us money the measure will actually ADD $18 billion in personal income.
http://www.metroatlantatransportationvote.com/documents/economic_analysis.pdf
I can also make the point that EVERY major business group in the state supports the measure.
But thanks to the myopic view of the “Gubment is BAD” crowd…yep that’s the bunch that you are lending your voice to…looks like we will pass on the opportunity to inject a bit of life into the region. You know the very same region that has been run into the ground for the last 10 years. The one that once led the nation in economic opportunity and now is a laggard.
No worries Dallas, Charlotte, Austin etc… are all standing by to benefit.
ragnar danneskjold
July 14th, 2012
10:42 am
Good analysis, compliments.
Michael H. Smith
July 14th, 2012
10:51 am
The Do Nothings and the haters of our American system of governance will do what they always do. Nothing. So they are to be discounted, out of hand. As always. The fundamental question is will these projects pay dividends for the taxpayers and commuters?
Is brucie aware that Vincent Fort and the NAACP are against his prized transportation tax puppie as “The Do Nothings and the haters of our American system of governance” ?
Tells you something about how far off the idiot wall this crap T-SPLOST really is and the defenders thereof when the Tea Party, Rep Vincent Fort and The NAACP are all steadfastly against it, even if their reasons for opposition differ.
Now, want to talk about who delusional the unhinged fringe is on this loser issue?
ITPer
July 14th, 2012
10:57 am
As someone who lives within five miles of my workplace, there’s no way I’m paying more in taxes to further subsidize the suburban McMansion dwellers who will use all these infrastructure improvements. Increase gasoline taxes (minimal impact to me) and let those who do all the commuting pay their fair share.
@@
July 14th, 2012
11:12 am
Inciteful:
According to AmVet’s own post (awhile back) he’s only attracted to “sweet little numbers”.
I am not sweet, little (5′10″ over six in heels) or a number. He never would have made it through my front door, much less the alter.
JDW
July 14th, 2012
11:14 am
Just to make the point a bit more clear…in 2002 the Republican Party won the Georgia Governors Office and Legislature. At the end of 2002 the Metro Atlanta area was ranked 63 of 200 in economic performance. Lets look at what has happened since shall we…
2003 ranked 77 out of 200
2004 ranked 72 out of 200
2005 ranked 118 out of 200
2006 ranked no data
2007 ranked 86 out of 200
2008 ranked 59 out of 200
2009 ranked 106 out of 200
2010 ranked 126 out of 200
2011 ranked 145 out of 200
http://bestcities.milkeninstitute.org/bestcities2011.taf?rankyear=2011&type=rank200
It’s not too hard to figure out that this area has gone in the wrong direction ever since and yet we keep on marching down that road to nowhere….why?
td
July 14th, 2012
11:36 am
JDW
July 14th, 2012
11:14 am
If your numbers are true then why is there more and more companies and people moving to the metro Atlanta area each and everyday. Can you please get this word out in NY, Chicago and Ohio so that the invasion from the north will stop?
Don
July 14th, 2012
11:40 am
We should never have gotten to the point that we are being asked to tax ourselves. We elect representatives to figure this stuff out for us. They are charged with figuring out the state’s budget, taxation and spending. They have abdicated that responsibility and put their work on us. They couldn’t even figure out how to put together a simple regional transit oversight board! They are going to come up with alternatives?
There is no plan B. There COULD be a plan B, but remember who has to come up with one? They are not capable. We never should have gotten to “plan A”. Virtually nothing has happened over the past eight years. How can we reasonably expect the same gang in Atlanta to do something now?
A rejection of T-SPLOST will be read as the people are against any new tax and/or tax increase – forever, to no need to propose a new list of projects, “the people have spoken!”
Ten years from now, when Atlanta has stagnated and the state is in constant budget crisis mode, nobody will think is was from a lack transportation infrastructure – they’ll probably just blame MARTA!
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
July 14th, 2012
11:41 am
“The Tea Party’s “principles”? Delusional gibberish. Sophistry and anti-Americanism.”
1. Anyone who comes onto the blog with personal attacks and little to nothing of substance to say will be banned permanently.
If your initial post, AmVet, isn’t the very definition of a personal attack containing nothing of substance, then nothing is. Not only that, but grossly repetitive on your part and as usual, completely inaccurate, as no one who works for, or serves their country in the cause of freedom could be considered anit-American. It’s a shame you’ve forgotten that little principle in your years of hatred for this nation as you sit back while being supported by it.
Good luck in finding another forum, AmVet.
md
July 14th, 2012
11:43 am
“So, we can expect the household “congestion tax” to fall by no more than 24 percent, or $237.”
And that’s also assuming the projects reduce congestion for 100% of the population…..it won’t.
So the true cost to those still stuck in traffic will be the $986 PLUS the new tax.
Bob Loblaw
July 14th, 2012
11:49 am
The idea that you will be “stuck” with this tax after 10 years is total bullsh!t.
Don
July 14th, 2012
11:50 am
The gang in Atlanta has spent a ton of money down state…more green lines in GA than any other state in the region. Take a look!
http://www.ops.fhwa.dot.gov/freight/freight_analysis/nat_freight_stats/images/hi_res_jpg/nhspeakperdcong2035.jpg
JDW
July 14th, 2012
11:51 am
@TD…”If your numbers are true then why is there more and more companies and people moving to the metro Atlanta area each and everyday. ”
There aren’t, relative to the rest of the world. If there were our unemployment and growth rates would be better than the national average and they are worse. The numbers are simple…for someone that reads them
yuzeyurbrane
July 14th, 2012
11:55 am
Kyle, I support you on this one although I do not agree with all of your logic, especially the value of demand stimulative economics. On that point, I would support infrastructure expenditures that are bona fide and fairly financed, full implementation of Obamacare to get over $35 billion into Georgia economy from the Feds, to improve the health of 1.9 million uninsured Georgians, and to save about 33% of Georgia’s hospitals from having to close, etc. We disagree on those programs but at least you are being philosophically consistent. Just not pragmatic enough for a poor state.
Michael H. Smith
July 14th, 2012
12:01 pm
Tiberius – pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
July 14th, 2012
11:41 am
This person’s stock and trade is personal attack comments of no substance. As I stated before, when this person got mad and attacked Dusty… this hypocrite calling anyone else an insulter, let alone a “serial insulter” kicks the dog in the head.
If anyone should be permanently booted off these blogs, this poster you referred to Tiberius certainly belongs at the top of the list.
Michael H. Smith
July 14th, 2012
12:13 pm
What’s amazing is that a couple of poster at the most are absolutely brain-dead when it comes to what is being rejected, Kyle.
Improving infrastructure and transportation are not what is being rejected here. It is this lame arse Carte Blanche tax that will never go back before the voters for approval to end or extend it and the projects specified to be funded that are being rejected.
Uh Oh
July 14th, 2012
12:16 pm
“this hypocrite calling anyone else an insulter” @ 12:01
“What’s amazing is that a couple of poster at the most are absolutely brain-dead” @ 12:13
Hypocrite much. Look in the mirror Mr INSULTER.
too funny
JDW
July 14th, 2012
12:23 pm
@TD…educate yourself…
“Over the last three years, essentially since the recession began, the 10-county region has added approximately 91,000 people. To put this into perspective, during the fast-growing 1990s and the 2000 decade, the Atlanta region routinely added 100,000 new residents each year.”
http://www.atlantaregional.com/File%20Library/Info%20Center/Newsletters/Regional%20Snapshots/Population/RS_Pop_Aug2011.pdf
Just Say No to New Taxes
July 14th, 2012
12:33 pm
I will never vote for a tax that funds MARTA with Cobb County tax dollars!
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
July 14th, 2012
12:35 pm
134 comments, and the ONLY comment made by the poster known as “Uh Oh”, is (as usual) not on the subject at all, but rather, made specifically at another poster.
I post this as both an informational message to others on this blog, and as another in the the case I am building for our host, that “Uh Oh” is not here to encourage discussion on the issues, but to engage in negative commentary specifically addressed towards the other bloggers he or she doesn’t like.
Therefore violating the following rule on a regular basis:
“1. Anyone who comes onto the blog with personal attacks and little to nothing of substance to say will be banned permanently.”
I would politely suggest to the blogger known as “Uh Oh” to up their game and actually post something – anything – of substance on this, and future topics. The case being made that approximately 90% of all your posts being of a personal nature and not to the subject is rather compelling.
Not that anyone would miss you if you were to be banned.
Don
July 14th, 2012
12:35 pm
MHS at 12:13
“Improving infrastructure and transportation are not what is being rejected here. It is this lame arse Carte Blanche tax that will never go back before the voters for approval to end or extend it and the projects specified to be funded that are being rejected.”
In my opinion these two items are joined at the hip. You can’t reject one without the other. That is how our politicians will see it.
Just got a flyer in the mail from our local state Senator who is ever-so-proud of all the taxes he proposed cutting. Not a single other accomplishment. Didn’t move the meter an inch on any transportation project or improve gov’t efficiency, or anything else.
He’s also the guy who’s in trouble for claiming mileage from Atlanta to home every evening – even when he is out of town – and while he has an expensive year-round condo in Atlanta. Great guy…
You think he’ll is capable of helping develop “Plan B”?
Hillbilly D
July 14th, 2012
12:38 pm
I’ve done said most everything I have to say on this subject and it looks like I’m not the only one.
JoeFann
July 14th, 2012
12:46 pm
Hate to cloud the issue with facts, but…
Georgia ranks 49th in per capita spending on transportation (ahead of only Tennessee.)
Georgia’s gas tax ($.075/gallon) is second lowest in the nation, behind only Florida ($.04/gallon.)
Gas tax revenues, which fund 100% of state road and bridge work, have plunged annually from $994 million in (FYE 6/30) 2008 to $713 million in 2012.
In 2007, GDOT let over $2 billion in transportation projects. Over the last four years, GDOT lettings averaged only $725 million, INCLUDING stimulus funds.
GDOT gets NONE of the TSPLOST funds, only the approval that the constructed project meets GDOT specs.
By law (TIA,) the TSPLOST expires at the end of 10 years, or when the estimated tax amounts (by regions that pass it) are collected, whichever comes first.
Your county will get a portion (% differs by region) of the funds to spend on county transportation projects, where YOU have input and (voting) control.
The TSPLOST can only be extended by voters, not politicians. (Of course, the politicians can still write their own law, just not extend this one.)
Engineers, material suppliers, construction companies and the businesses they support are waiting until the outcome of this vote before deciding if additional rounds of layoffs and shrinkage are required, on the heels of contracting twice already since 2008. This round will be the bloodiest yet.
Sorry to be Debbie Downer, but the fed pols haven’t fixed the Highway Trust Fund, the state pols haven’t fixed the funding model, and all have punted the ball to you. Roads and bridges WILL be maintained. The question is simply how will they be funded, and who will fund them. Your county will charge the property owners through higher taxes. At least through TSPLOST, everyone who buys will contribute, including the passers-through. Everyone depends on transportation for the delivery of goods and services, including your own labor. At least through TSPLOST, you have a say through the regional boards.
I don’t like taxes either, but this one is needed, and needed now.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
July 14th, 2012
12:53 pm
Don, I have no problem with the voters rejecting this tax. While our laws allow for this type of vote, I disagree with the notion that we are a democracy and should be voting on this stuff.
Democracies usually get things wrong, as the votes are taken during times of economic or social strife, when clear thinking and level-headedness are at dismally low levels.
I hope they reject this because it is not only a bad idea, but it is the more proper role of our elected officials to live or die (politically-speaking, of course) by the votes they cast. If they want to improve our transportation infrastructure, something I’m not even willing to concede even needs such massive improvement, then make them do their jobs and increase our taxes if needed.
And btw, if you want an increased income stream to fund transportation, don’t tax every purchase, just those that affect transportation. Increase the gas tax and MARTA rates if you need to, but stop taxing EVERYTHING for a specific purpose.
Hillbilly D
July 14th, 2012
12:54 pm
Well maybe I haven’t said everything I have to say lol
In the NE region Hall county has more votes than any other county. They are slated to get back $1.40+ for every dollar they pay in, if this tax passes. So they can vote it in and get the other counties to pay for it. At first, the movers and shakers in Hall were advertising that but as soon as they figured out it was pissing off people in the other counties, they hushed.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
July 14th, 2012
1:00 pm
There are more holes in this plan, Hillbilly D, than a block of my favorite Kerry Gold Swiss cheese!
JoeFann
July 14th, 2012
1:01 pm
Tiberius–EVERTHING people buy has to be transported. That’s the best reason for an additional sales tax.
JoeFann
July 14th, 2012
1:02 pm
Where does Kerry Gold Swiss come from, and how does it get to you?
JDW
July 14th, 2012
1:04 pm
@JoeFann…now don’t go crowding these minds with logical facts…all they can see is Tax = Bad. Somehow the idea that growth requires investment just hasn’t found purchase in those grey regions as yet.
Here is another interesting bit…
““I wanted to know exactly how many projects we had on the books and I didn’t get a definitive answer,” Abraham says. “The first number I got back was 1,100. Then it was 1,300, then 2,216. Now the answer seems to be 5,430. Last year we let 260 projects, and we still have 20 years of projects on our books.”
“That was in December, as Abraham was getting warm in her new office. At the time, Georgia was facing a $51 billion funding shortfall through 2035 for road, highway and bridge repairs and improvements, according to a report released by The Road Information Program (TRIP), a nonprofit research organization supported by road builders. ”
So a 20 year backlog and a $51 Billion funding shortfall…
does T-Splost fix everything…no.
Have our Republican “Leaders” given us an elegant solution…no
But our choice is simple address part of the problem or continue to do nothing and fall further behind.
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
July 14th, 2012
1:05 pm
Then let the TRANSPORTATION industry pay for it, JoeFann.
This business of spreading it around for less impact is no different than the scheme the Feds do with automatic withholding in your paycheck; out of sight, out of mind.
JDW
July 14th, 2012
1:05 pm
opps forgot the link
http://www.georgiatrend.com/February-2008/A-New-Direction-For-Georgias-DOT/
Tiberius - pulling the tail of the left AND right when needed
July 14th, 2012
1:13 pm
“At the time, Georgia was facing a $51 billion funding shortfall through 2035 for road, highway and bridge repairs and improvements, according to a report released by The Road Information Program (TRIP), a nonprofit research organization supported by road builders.”
Ah, the “fox guarding the hen house” generated plea for funding.
Not exactly meant to give anyone but the biggest supporter of big government a warm and fuzzy feeling.
What’s next, the defense industry telling us what kind of equipment we need to buy – wait, how’s THAT worked out?
td
July 14th, 2012
1:18 pm
JDW: For some reason my response is in moderation?
JDW
July 14th, 2012
1:19 pm
@Tiberius…”This business of spreading it around for less impact is no different than the scheme the Feds do with automatic withholding in your paycheck; out of sight, out of mind.”…”Not exactly meant to give anyone but the biggest supporter of big government a warm and fuzzy feeling.”
Now THATS the kind of insightful thinking that has led the Metro area to an economic ranking of 145 out of 200…keep it up maybe we can get lower still. In spite of all those built in advantages we have.
JDW
July 14th, 2012
1:20 pm
@td…”For some reason my response is in moderation?”
It does that to me sometimes too. If I close the browser and rewrite what I said it sometimes works.