No court victories can keep bad economic news at bay for Obama

While I was away* several people asked me how long I thought President Obama would ride his Obamacare victory at the Supreme Court. My answer: Until the next bad economic news comes out.

Which turned out to be Friday’s jobs report.

The government reported just 80,000 net jobs created in June and an unemployment rate holding steady at 8.2 percent. That means the second quarter was the worst for job creation in two years and represented three more months in which job creation didn’t even keep pace with population growth. If labor-force participation was at the same level it was when Obama took office, the unemployment rate would be a dismal 10.9 percent — almost double what the Obama administration predicted for June 2012 with its “stimulus” package passed. As it is, our 41-month streak of more than 8 percent joblessness — covering Obama’s entire presidency — is the longest since the Great Depression.

This chart from economist Greg Mankiw’s blog tells the story:

Greg Mankiw employment population ratio

The percentage of Americans with jobs has essentially been flat for almost three years.

We can count on the president to keep telling us it’s all George Bush’s fault, but that tale is getting stale and yielding diminishing returns. A new poll by The Hill found that, while two-thirds of likely voters say Obama has transformed America, a majority say he’s changed the country for the worse. That is: Bush didn’t leave him with a good situation, but Obama has made the worst of it, not the best. Amazingly, even 1 in 5 Democrats agrees with that sentiment.

As I’ve said before, these realities are the reason Mitt Romney is running circles around Obama when it comes to fund-raising — outdoing the president by about 50 percent last month. And they’re the reason Obama is left to ask voters to judge Romney by the content of his character bank accounts.

*I scheduled a Fourth of July post to go out early Wednesday morning and explain that I’d be off until today, but the WordPress gremlins didn’t let it out of the cage and I didn’t have a chance to check until the Fifth. I hope everyone had a happy Independence Day regardless.

Also: Note that, while comments are no longer being moderated, I will be publishing a separate post on the topic of blog commenting, and how I intend for it to proceed, later today.

– By Kyle Wingfield

Find me on Facebook or follow me on Twitter

432 comments Add your comment

JF McNamara

July 9th, 2012
11:43 am

The scale on that chart is absolutely atrocious. The number is down 5 percentage points. Along with the Bush bubble which drove the number artificially high, there could be any number of factors driving that change.

The bottom line is that make the scale so large makes this looks like a huge problem when it probably isn’t.

yuzeyurbrane

July 9th, 2012
11:49 am

Your assertion that weak job numbers are the reason for Romney’s huge fundraising haul is one of the most stupid that you have ever made. I expect better from you, Kyle, because you are smart and often present well-constructed arguments. Considering the folks from whom the cash is flowing, jobs numbers play a miniscule part in their motivation, if any at all.

meno

July 9th, 2012
11:52 am

Does Kyle think it not worth mentioning that a clear majority (not just Obama) blame Bush for the current economic realities? Fund raising success also does not translate to being up in the polls (esp. in battleground states) and the fact remains that the last few months of job reports has not made a big impact for Romney in the polls.

I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...

July 9th, 2012
11:53 am

As long as the majority of the country is good with blaming Bush for something he’s had no control over for nearly five years, what else do you expect?

Ryan

July 9th, 2012
11:54 am

Good piece. It’s becoming far too obvious that we as a nation cannot afford 4 more years of Obama. I’m not here to say Romney will come and and make the country prosperous overnight, but he will certainly lead us in a better direction than our current President.

Kyle Wingfield

July 9th, 2012
11:59 am

yuze: “Your assertion that weak job numbers are the reason for Romney’s huge fundraising haul …”

That’s not what I wrote, and you know it.

Kyle Wingfield

July 9th, 2012
12:01 pm

“These realities,” to which I attributed Romney’s fund-raising success, cover everything in the OP that preceded it: The long-term poor jobs growth, the difference between what Obama promised with his policies vs. what’s happened, the widespread sentiment that Obama has made things worse, etc.

Steve

July 9th, 2012
12:03 pm

If Congress wouldn’t thwart job creation at every move we’d see improvement. The President doesn’t create jobs – Congress is the hangup here.

Jefferson

July 9th, 2012
12:07 pm

Rain on a parade ? Better than the last administration. You too are more of the same, Kyle.

JDW

July 9th, 2012
12:09 pm

Not unexpected for Kyle and rest of the Right to chortle over “only” 80,000 jobs created last month or to tout the Romney fund raising success of the moment due almost entirely to the “Corporations are People Too” disgrace.

A couple of points first 80,000 in job growth isn’t what we need but it continues to be a damn sight better than losing 750,000 a month as was the end result of the last Republican leadership era.

Second, the fundraising success may actually have a potent backlash. You can’t sugarcoat the fact that of that $100+ million only $22 million came from smaller donors and as yet I have not seen Romney release the total number of donors to his campaign. Based on prior info my guess is that that $100+ million came from less than 300,000 contributors or less than half the 700,000 plus individual contributors to the President’s campaign.

Unfortunately for Romney you only get one vote per person instead of one vote per dollar and that’s why he continues to trail. My guess is that a large number of voters will continue to question where the money is coming from and in spite of Mittens deflection why it is that he needs offshore accounts and companies to mask his personal wealth.

Of course it would also help if more that 27% of the electorate actually thought he had a plan…

http://www.therightscoop.com/bill-kristol-doesnt-think-romney-can-win-unless-he-can-convince-more-voters-he-has-a-plan-to-fix-economy/

JF McNamara

July 9th, 2012
12:10 pm

@Ryan,

How is it becoming far too obvious? Because other people (mostly unskilled) aren’t employed (because we shipped a lot of jobs overseas)? You’re probably a lot better off than in 2008. I know I am and most everyone else I know is, and its because I worked hard and improved my own life. Isn’t that what you cons advocate?

AmVet

July 9th, 2012
12:11 pm

…the widespread sentiment that Obama has made things worse, etc.

?????????????????????????????

Worse than late 2008????

Talk about insanely short memories…

Jefferson

July 9th, 2012
12:14 pm

Who would want a spoiled rich brat, who turns his back on America with all his hidden,secret off shore account (tax evader ?) to lead the country ? Only a partisan parrot.

Dusty

July 9th, 2012
12:15 pm

Welcome back, Kyle . A POX on Word Press! But gremlins still abound. As soon as I saw your new subject, my power flickered enough to totally upset my computer! But all is calm once again.

Of course the economy is “bad” and liberals will continue to say it is “glad” and the Bush Bubble is to blame with the usual etc . etc. etc. I don’t think they will mention the “health victory” very long as citizens realize more and more it is far from the Constitution, out of sight on cost to states not to mention the entire country, and free to no one. It is a new tax!

But costs are not relevant to Democrats. Have you seen the latest promises by Hillary to Afghanistan? .Ah but…money grows on trees !!!

Tom(Independent-Viet Vet-USAF)

July 9th, 2012
12:16 pm

meno@11:52 – How much longer are you going to say it is Bush”s fault. Remember he got both the House and Senate’s approval for the two wars! At some point Obama has to take responsibility for his 3 1/2 years in office?

Steve

July 9th, 2012
12:17 pm

Why doesn’t Kyle post how poorly Romney’s job growth numbers were when he was Massachusetts governor??

Pizzaman

July 9th, 2012
12:21 pm

What is the Republican plan for anything? How will they create jobs, cut taxes, reduce the deficit and replace the ACA? What is the plan? And I want facts, not “ideas”.

carlosgvv

July 9th, 2012
12:23 pm

Why do so many people here, including you, Kyle, think it’s the responsibility of The President of The United States to create jobs?

And why do so many use that tired old excuse “the President has imposed too many restrictions on Business”?

The President does not sit at his desk and personally dictate to Business what Govt. regulations they must operate under. Congress has a hand in this too and remember, The House is dominated by Tea Party Republicans.

fair and balanced

July 9th, 2012
12:24 pm

So tell me the plan that Romney has that will automatically restore jobs to the US ????
That trickle down fable sure does not apply to him. Swiss banks do not create US jobs.
Is he going to get back all those jobs the US has outsourced-how??? lower the minimum wage? to what – $5.00 an hour??? Lower taxes on the 1% and capital gains lower? So Romney pays under 15% per year? How does that help.
Romney would have lost thousands of jobs in US auto manufacturing if he were president. So show me the proof he can rev up the economy. I have yet to hear anything that makes sense from Romney.

Steve

July 9th, 2012
12:24 pm

The Republican plan is to starve government to the point where we only fund wars and everyone fends for themselves while the rich live in armed, gated communities.

Thulsa Doom

July 9th, 2012
12:28 pm

“If Congress wouldn’t thwart job creation at every move we’d see improvement. The President doesn’t create jobs – Congress is the hangup here.”

Steve,

Really? So was Congress the holdup the first 2 years when the Dems controlled both houses with O in office?

I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...

July 9th, 2012
12:29 pm

Reagan blamed dhimmi “malaise” karter right up to the day that he beat him in the 1980 election. And then that was that. You heard no more about karter from Reagan. Reagan went to work and set in motion the greatest economic expansion the world has ever seen. Rid us of the Soviet Union. Freed over half of Europe from tyranny. Brought forth the Peace Dividend that made clinton look competent.

And obozo has……….

Grow up, dummycrats.

Steve

July 9th, 2012
12:29 pm

Thulsa, if you remember, we HAD stimulus early on and the job growth was strong but that was thwarted when the republicans took over Congress. Look it up.

Thulsa Doom

July 9th, 2012
12:30 pm

No question about it. Its clear this is the most failed presidency presiding over the most failed economic numbers since the great depression. Ya can’t put lipstick on this pig. The economy is nothing short of horrific under this incompetent president.

Kyle Wingfield

July 9th, 2012
12:31 pm

JDW @ 12:09: Unless you are suggesting we would have continued to lose 750K jobs a month indefinitely if not for Obama, you really ought to give up this comparison between the lowest point of a recession and what’s supposed to be the beginning of the fourth year of recovery. This is the slowest recovery in 70 years. It is, to borrow your phrasing, a damn sight worse than most of us have ever seen in our lifetimes.

Steve

July 9th, 2012
12:31 pm

I Report – Reagan also RAISED TAXES FIVE TIMES. Methinks you need to do some growing up.

Steve

July 9th, 2012
12:32 pm

Kyle – and how has Congress cooperated with Obama these last two years to actually create jobs? Lowering taxes on the wealthy is a farce.

Thulsa Doom

July 9th, 2012
12:34 pm

Steve,

Actually if you go back and look at the bureau of labor statistics do you want to know when unemployment began to rise? Jay provided this in a graph about a year ago. Go back to January of when the Ds took over the House when W was in office. The numbers don’t lie sir.

As for O’s first 24 months in office with Dem majorities in the house and senate jobs growth and economic growth were still anemic. Trying to blame everything on the Republican house is just plain weak dude. And on top of that the House has sent plenty of bills to the Dem controlled Senate where bills just die. Funny how you want to blame the R house but reserve no blame for the D controlled Senate where all these bills are just dying.

Furious Styles

July 9th, 2012
12:34 pm

The economy is a convenient scapegoat. Pull out of all wars, don’t jump or start any others and stop pumping money into Pakistan and the rest of the middle east and the money pains just might go away within the next decade.

Steve

July 9th, 2012
12:35 pm

Thulsa, is Obama a superhero? What is the GOP plans for jobs? I’m waiting…

Thulsa Doom

July 9th, 2012
12:36 pm

Steve,

And one other thing sir. I believe O’s own budget was defeated something like 99-0 in the Senate and something crazy like 498-0 in the House with the rest abstaining. So is that the Republican’s fault when Obama’s own party opposes his budgets?

fair and balanced

July 9th, 2012
12:37 pm

I report – one way Reagan did it was a huge increase in US defense spending. That created huge deficits. No different than the Obama stimulus program. So where is Romney going to spend federal dollars to stimulate the economy?

Steve

July 9th, 2012
12:38 pm

What is the GOP plan? If it’s Trickle Down economics, Americans are not buying it…

Jefferson

July 9th, 2012
12:40 pm

Give Kyle a stool to sit on as he pimps for the GOP.

Thulsa Doom

July 9th, 2012
12:41 pm

Steve,

From what I’ve seen is simple- start getting a hold of the deficit, start limiting the size and growth of the federal govt, reform our biggest social programs so that they don’t bankrupt themselves, repeal Obamacare and its various taxes on business, and relieve business of the onerous regulations that Obama has hamstrung them with including reducing O’s assault on our energy industry which could provide much needed jobs plus tax revenue.

Could they possibly do worse than the last 3 1/2 years under Obama? No. They can’t. What you and other liberals fail to grasp is economic history. Typically the deeper and steeper a recession the stronger and more robust the economy recovery. The historical record flat out proves it.

So why is economic recovery so weak under this potus? Easy- his policies are hindering economic growth. Go back and look at some economic history sir and look at our recoveries from recessions. This is by far the weakest recovery ever going by practically any measure.

Dusty

July 9th, 2012
12:45 pm

Could we check off liberal excuses for the poor economy so they won’t repeat them so many times?

Let’s see: the Bush Bubble, Congress, rich people, rich Romney, Not Obama’s responsibility, starving government, war funding, Bush’s last term, trickle down, outsourced jobs, prez don’t create no jobs, Massachusetts did it, tea party did it, gated communities did it, secret shore accounts, Obama aint made things worse, personal finance and of course “there aint no plan!”

I must say that liberals have a fine imagination towards great fanciful excuses for incompetence and poor leadership. Maybe it’s the organic foods or their health habits requiring marijuana. Whatever!. I’m sure we will have a few more unicorns landing here soon carrying their DNC notes.

Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy

July 9th, 2012
12:45 pm

I bet Fredi Gonzalez hopes he gets four years before being fired. Fredi was left with a reduced team, but expected to maintain the playoff run. A CEO pointing out that it was the incumbent’s bad decisions that keep the company from moving to a profitable state, would be allowed about 18 months before he was tossed.

Oblamer is a total failure and has no idea what to do next, other than extend the Bush tax cuts. He was elected by his liberal base, that hate the rich, to take it to them, but alas, he is between a rock and a hard place. He would love to extract a little revenge on the rich, but if he does he tanks the abysmal economy further. I would love to get his sycophants on record saying how long they will back his ineptness before they will brand him a failure.

Afraid that this time next year, if he is reelected, Biden will be tasked to get out there and boast about the Summer of Recovery part IV.

Jefferson

July 9th, 2012
12:47 pm

Known vs the unknown.

Better or worse ?

Who would the richer guy work for ?

Pizzaman

July 9th, 2012
12:49 pm

Bush cut taxes and started two wars. Only one was necessary, legal and moral and it’s still being fought. His “business” policies, which are basically “hands off”, resulted in the Silicon Valley collapse in 2006 and the housing and business depression, yes! it was and is a depression, of 2008. The recovery from 08 hasn’t started yet. It’s bottomed out thanks to the Obama stimulus. If it hadn’t been so bad in 08 we may have been in recovery by now. Finally, all of us must realize that 8 to 10 million jobs lost since 06 will never be back. So the Repub promise of jobs is election bull.

curious

July 9th, 2012
12:49 pm

Looks like a free fall in 2008. It was all a “house of cards’ until then. President Bush’s policies eventually drove our economy off a climb into the Grand Canyon.

We didn’t come out of the depression until WW2. Unless we start a war with somebody big like Russia or China, it’s going to be a slow go.

Wonder what would have happened if the auto industry had been allowed to fail taking with it all the supporting companies that were dependent on that industry.

If somebody really wants to return to the Bush economy, then you should vote for Romney. I don’t think it was Obama’s fault we had that collapse (think Ponzi scheme).

jconservative

July 9th, 2012
12:51 pm

Reagan, through his new policy of cutting government revenue and increasing government spending, tripled the national debt.

Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)

July 9th, 2012
12:51 pm

And I want facts, not “ideas”.

LOL. How about “generalities”? Will that be enough? Cause that is ALL you are going to get…and about 3 people saying “You got Google, don’t you?”

Trouble is, even the most rabid, foaming at the mouth, Conservatives can’t tell you what the Conservative plans are.

BS Aplenty

July 9th, 2012
12:53 pm

We can only hope that younger voters, those with career and job aspirations, will look at the anemic/bulemic/starving job creation numbers and make a rational choice to change the country’s direction by changing the president.

Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)

July 9th, 2012
12:54 pm

I must say that liberals have a fine imagination towards great fanciful excuses for incompetence and poor leadership.

Or…..Mitt Romney? Is that my other choice. Mwuahahahahahaha. You had a chance to put up someone we libs might get behind but noooooooooooooo.

Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy

July 9th, 2012
12:57 pm

Finn

Romney has a 59 point plan, underwhelming as it is, it beats no plan. What is Oblamer’s plan, other than to extend the Oblamer Tax Cuts for the Rich and blame Bush for everything else?

Repealing Oblamercare would increase hiring immediately, as employers would know what they are facing regarding healthcare costs. A job with no benefits beats the heck out of a sitting a home watching The View.

Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)

July 9th, 2012
1:00 pm

AmVet: Worse than late 2008????
——-

Correct.

Unemployment is worse. Labor participation rate is worse. National debt is worse. Entitlement spending is worse. Poverty rate is worse.

Where’s the “change”?

Obozo: Inferior to Our President Bush.

Dusty

July 9th, 2012
1:00 pm

OH my goodness, I missed REAGAN. Yeah, the bad economy is his fault too! Hey, how about Hoover?

But Jefferson gets the IAS ( I am stupid) award for unfortunate posts with “Kyle….pimps for the GOP”.

Sorry, Jefferson, but “pimp” is not a familiar word in the GOP lexicon. So keep it to yourself. GOP doesn’t need to use a common description of another political party.

Aquagirl

July 9th, 2012
1:02 pm

Trouble is, even the most rabid, foaming at the mouth, Conservatives can’t tell you what the Conservative plans are.

They’re gonna eliminate the entire deficit by cutting food stamps for the woman buying filet mignon and caviar in front of you at Kroger’s.

Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)

July 9th, 2012
1:02 pm

jconservative: Reagan, through his new policy of cutting government revenue…
———-

You lie. Revenue increased during Our President Reagan’s administration.

Jefferson

July 9th, 2012
1:02 pm

Dusty, you pimping too ?