Obamacare ruling offers good possibilities, but no substitute for a win
Generals are often accused of “fighting the last war.” After Thursday’s Supreme Court ruling upholding Obamacare, conservatives are asked to pin our hopes on the notion Chief Justice John Roberts was fighting the next war.
This is a tempting proposition. There is the fact Roberts, in the main opinion of the court, and the four dissenting justices endorsed a limit to the power Congress wields under the Commerce Clause of the U.S. Constitution. As this was the key judicial theory advanced by the law’s opponents, one that sought to halt a decades-long expansion of the meaning of “regulating” interstate commerce, that is no minor feat. It could even provide the starting point one day for further rollbacks of bad Commerce Clause precedent, starting with the awful 1942 Wickard decision that found a farmer affected interstate commerce by growing his own wheat.
There is also the fact the court’s majority decided the “penalty” for non-compliance with Obamacare’s individual mandate to purchase health insurance is really a “tax.” While this contradicts Congress’ actions and the president’s words during the 2009-10 health-care debate, it has the benefit of making it easier to repeal the law. As a budgetary matter, this “tax” — and Obamacare’s other taxes and spending — should be subject to the Senate’s reconciliation process, to which the filibuster does not apply. So, there’s no requirement for 60 votes in the Senate to remove the heart and guts of the law, just a simple majority.
And there is the fact that Roberts’ surprising vote on Obamacare averted the torrent of purely partisan criticism Democrats and liberals were set to unleash had a majority of the court struck down the law, accusing Roberts and his colleagues of — wait for it — partisanship. His court’s integrity intact, perhaps Roberts will be freer in lower-profile future cases to strike blows for the causes of federalism and limited government.
All these thoughts are pleasing to the conservative mind.
But if Roberts’ ruling can cite Benjamin Franklin’s aphorism about the certainty of death and taxes, allow me to caution against too rosy a view of his ruling with another saying: A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.
Maybe the Roberts court will reinforce federalist principles in future cases. Then again, maybe the facts and circumstances of these future cases won’t cooperate. Or maybe the cases won’t emerge before the Commerce Clause-limiting wing of the court changes for the worse: Antonin Scalia is 76, Anthony Kennedy turns 76 this month, and there are at least even odds Barack Obama will be making court appointments past their 80th birthdays.
Speaking of elections: Maybe Mitt Romney will win and have at least 50 GOP senators (plus his vice president) to pass a budgetary bill by reconciliation. Maybe not. The presidential election and key Senate races look close, and four months is an eternity in politics.
And maybe, just maybe, the same Democrats and liberals who thought partisanship was the only reason the court could strike down Obamacare will look back, when a future case is decided in favor of federalism and limited government, and say, “This stinks, but hey — Roberts was with us on health care back in 2012. So it’s cool.” Or maybe their reactions will be just as vicious and plainly partisan as their blowback to an anti-Obamacare decision promised to be.
Possible future good is a consolation for Thursday’s loss, but it’s no substitute for a win.
(Note from Kyle: This is my column for the Sunday AJC. As anyone who read my posts Thursday can tell, I have been going back and forth about the impact of the Obamacare ruling. Consider this column a refinement of my opinion: There are some good things that could come out of the ruling, but they are by no means guaranteed.)
– By Kyle Wingfield
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677 comments Add your comment
Soothsayer
June 30th, 2012
2:57 pm
Get: whether he did or not I don’t know, nor do I really care. Although I agree with your earlier statements.
Jay e-mailed me to ask me about it, though. I answered as honestly as I could. And he made his own decision.
getalife
June 30th, 2012
2:59 pm
“Jay e-mailed me to ask me about it, though.”
Yeah, that means he got a complaint about it.
@@
June 30th, 2012
3:08 pm
Yeah, that means he got a complaint about it.
OR
jay was monitoring the exchange, Getalife?
MarkV
June 30th, 2012
3:08 pm
Dusty,
Thank you for your good wishes.
I do not dispute that there are some people who have a mistaken idea about what ObamaCare is about. And I cannot agree with you more that some of them do not pay for insurance because they do not have the money. And in that lie the two main points of ObamaCare (which I consider not the best solution but a better system that we have now): to help such people to get insurance, so that they do not go to ERs for a much more expensive treatment than they would get with regular healthcare and that those with insurance would pay for, and to force people who want to take the chances with their health and medical expenses (and there are some) to pay for insurance and thus lower the cost for everyone.
Try to look at it this way: I will assume that you have health insurance (If not, just imagine they you do). How many people are in that pool? You probably do not know (neither do I), but let’s say a million. Would it make any difference to you if there were 2 million? Or 10 million? Why should it? So how about 330 million? Will it really bother you so much if some of them get help buying the insurance to be able to get health care, because you will therefore have to pay a little more? Would it bother you so much that you would rather see them to be sick or die because of the lack of help? And before you argue that they do get free care at Grady or wherever, remember that the result is again an increase in your insurance premiums or taxes.
My best wishes to your birthday party. And keep those birdbaths filled.
@@
June 30th, 2012
3:24 pm
Getalife:
Did you ever snitch on other bloggers?
Never!
I know of one leftist who snitched me out to STRATFOR though.
RW-(the original)
June 30th, 2012
3:24 pm
Has jay started telling people when they’re banned? To this day he’s never told me.
Hi @@ and Dusty, great to “see” y’all.
@@
June 30th, 2012
3:35 pm
Getalife:
Better question. Have we ever had a president who set up a “snitch site”?
“There is a lot of disinformation about health insurance reform out there, spanning from control of personal finances to end-of-life care. These rumors often travel just below the surface via chain e-mails or through casual conversation. Since we can’t keep track of all of them here at the White House, we’re asking for your help. If you get an e-mail or see something on the web about health insurance reform that seems fishy, send it to flag@whitehouse.gov.”
@@
June 30th, 2012
3:38 pm
RW:
You’re underserving of notification.
(IW&SH)
Check your inbox. Having no internet access, I was afraid I would miss your birthday.
Whew! Was reconnected on the very day.
@@
June 30th, 2012
3:40 pm
Something fishy?
How’bout IT’S A TAX.
schnirt
getalife
June 30th, 2012
3:45 pm
@@,
See something say something.
RW,
Are you sure you are banned?
getalife
June 30th, 2012
3:46 pm
“How’bout IT’S A TAX”
Not if you have health insurance.
Dusty
June 30th, 2012
3:46 pm
MarkV,
You are saying that mostly we should like ObamaCare for compasssionate reasons. Well, I thought of that a long time ago and have sent many donations to nonprofits and also worked extensively in healthcare facilites to help those less fortunate. Not sitting at the visitors desk but working with professionals in my field.
But I do not think it is compassionate to bankrupt a whole country and that is where we are headed. There is no way you can offer healthcare for millions of people without it being very costly. We are already deep in debt. Everyone will be affected, rich, poor, healthy, unhealthy.
OUr system is also loaded with illegal immigrants who have learned how to get free healthcare. I think we best change our ER system in which there is a triage of patients with only the serious getting serious treatment. The rest could go to branch clinics. I do think those with chronic illnness need some respite but long term illness is very costly and insurance companies know that. They are not run by missionaries but business men. Investments are not made in companies with no profit.
The government needs to let people make their own decisions. Healthcare is one of them. People are dying every day but I doubt that a large percentage of them are from lack of medical care. More likely lack of personal care at the basic level or end of life complications that come to all. Even ObamaCare cannot change such people. But they should not be allowed to set the standards for medical care in this country. .
Dusty
June 30th, 2012
3:51 pm
RW!!!!! So glad you are here. Hope it is long term. PLease stick around.
Excuse me but I am burning chicken on the grill. Why did I try this? So far its half burned and half raw! Awww….anyway…..so good to SEE you!! And it’s only 103 degrees!!! I am half cooked too.
@@
June 30th, 2012
3:52 pm
Getalife:
See something say something.
Is that your way of confirming his “snitch site”?
@@
June 30th, 2012
4:11 pm
Do NOT go outside without your flip flops!
I’m tempted to crack an egg on the pavement. No waste…my dog loves fried eggs.
getalife
June 30th, 2012
4:12 pm
@@,
Yes.
RW-(the original)
June 30th, 2012
4:29 pm
Are you sure you are banned?
Perhaps not but I long ago tired of making comments that either wouldn’t show up or got pulled back down in a matter of minutes.
@@,
I saw that and thanks. Did you also email Mr. Sowell?
RW-(the original)
June 30th, 2012
4:30 pm
Dusty,
Point your chicken toward the sun and it should finish off just fine.
MarkV
June 30th, 2012
4:38 pm
Dusty @ 3:46 pm
Dusty,
There are several problems with your arguments.
“There is no way you can offer healthcare for millions of people without it being very costly.”
Think about what you have written. The United States, the richest country in the world, cannot assure health care for all her people, while many much less rich countries can. Really?
The question about illegal immigrants is completely outside the discussion here about ObamaCare. But your argument about triage of patients in ERs cannot be taken seriously. You want to replace the requirement of insurance with a law that would affect how doctors in ERs should treat people who go there? And you and other conservatives want to talk about “putting the government between doctors and patients?”
And what about “lack of personal care at the basic level?” It is exactly the lack of insurance that prevents people from getting preventive care that would lower the cost.
I come back again to the argument I submitted to you some time ago and which you so completely misinterpreted. Forget about Democrats and the OCB prediction that ObamaCare will save money, and the Republican’s claim that it will cost huge amounts of money. Think about where most of the money goes: to the treatment of people who need treatment to get well. (I am not disregarding administrative costs, but those are at least as high in an unregulated private insurance system). Which bring us to the beginning: Is the US such a poor country that is must leave some people without medical care?
@@
June 30th, 2012
4:43 pm
RW:
Did you also email Mr. Sowell?
That’s DR. Sowell. And YES I DID!
@@
June 30th, 2012
4:45 pm
Getalife:
The IRS collects penalties on unpaid taxes.
RW-(the original)
June 30th, 2012
4:54 pm
Does being a Dr preclude one from being a Mr? And I hope you didn’t leave out Mike Tyson
@@
June 30th, 2012
5:03 pm
No, Dr. R.W., it doesn’t.
Mike Tyson? Isn’t he in prison?
RW-(the original)
June 30th, 2012
5:18 pm
Isn’t he in prison?
Prisoners need a little birthday love too, but no he isn’t in prison. He was last seen on a talk show giving some very bizarre reasons for being a vegetarian.
@@
June 30th, 2012
5:27 pm
Yitzhak Shamir, former Israeli PM, dies
RIP Prime Minister Shamir.
Shamir ordered Operation Solomon, the airlift rescue of thousands of Ethiopian Jews following a regime change in 1991. During the operation, which took less than 48 hours, 14,000 Jews boarded Israeli planes to emigrate to Israel, according to the Israeli government.
@@
June 30th, 2012
5:31 pm
There’s a banner that keeps popping up at the bottom of the AJC’s site. “ajc SIZZLIN’ SUMMER SALE!”
My security provider keeps shutting me down as a result.
Something about protecting my computer from attack.
What IS THAT?
Tyson was always bizarre.
@@
June 30th, 2012
5:47 pm
Change “from attack” to protection from a malicious add-on….whatever the heck that is.
Soothsayer
June 30th, 2012
6:00 pm
@@: move your cursor over the box in the lower right corner of your screen. If a dialogue box appears that says “hide,” click on that. If not, there is a procedure to remove the bar, but I can’t remember how. I think getalife knows how.
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
June 30th, 2012
6:15 pm
@@- What do you mean “security provider?” Is it a virus program you have installed?
RW-(the original)
June 30th, 2012
6:49 pm
@@,
If you use AdBlock I have a script you can put in to kill that Mebo bar completely. Let me know and I’ll post a copy of it.
@@
June 30th, 2012
7:08 pm
Soothsayer:
Whenever I place my cursor over the banner, that’s when security takes over to shut down.
Andy:
I don’t know all the technical terms. Norton Anti-Virus.
RW:
I used AdBlock when I had Firefox. Semper switched over to IE seeking to destroy some nasty virus. Long story short. He thought he’d installed security on my computer, when, in fact, he neglected to do so. Left me exposed and vulnerable. Took two days to find that roach and squash it.
If the AdBlock works on IE, show me the way.
@@
June 30th, 2012
7:13 pm
Semper said to tell y’all that he doesn’t play well with piddlin’ computers invented by college students. Mainframes don’t get hacked.
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
June 30th, 2012
7:23 pm
@@- I doubt if your anti virus program is attacking the Meebo bar.
You’ve got the real thing.
Search for “Microsoft Security Essentials,” download it and follow the prompts. Run a scan with it.
Then search for “Spybot” and do the same thing.
They are both free and they work.
You’ll probably have to uninstall Norton, MSE may conflict with it.
RW-(the original)
June 30th, 2012
7:23 pm
@@,
I’ll have to do some research. Why don’t you can IE instead? Tell Semper a mainframe is just a cloud these days. Make sure he doesn’t float up to OZ.
md
June 30th, 2012
7:27 pm
“to help such people to get insurance, so that they do not go to ERs for a much more expensive treatment than they would get with regular healthcare and that those with insurance would pay for,”
The numbers coming out of MA indicate that trips to the ER went up instead of down…..seems folks like the convenience and now have the insurance to make more trips……
“I will assume that you have health insurance (If not, just imagine they you do). How many people are in that pool? You probably do not know (neither do I), but let’s say a million. Would it make any difference to you if there were 2 million? Or 10 million? Why should it?”
It makes a huge difference……..premiums also depend on how many in that pool are actually paying their own premiums……..so what do you expect to happen to those premiums when many million are not paying for their own??
Yep……your premiums go up……hence the real “tax” increase that just got passed………..
md
June 30th, 2012
7:34 pm
““How’bout IT’S A TAX”
Not if you have health insurance.”
And getalife is one of those that don’t realize that raising premiums to cover millions added to the insurance is not a “tax”………yep, it’s a premium, just as a fee is also not a tax……
Wonder what the folks in Greece called it before they started their riots in the street??
Michael H. Smith
June 30th, 2012
7:42 pm
If obumercare was a great as these socialist libs pretend it is then why must they continue with their sells pitch and tell conservatives to get over it?
Nah libs, you guys can get over it as you say. On my side of this issue we intend to “get rid of it”, along with as much of the socialist democrat party as we can replace beginning at the top of the ticket.
the red herring
June 30th, 2012
7:51 pm
this tax and healthcare program takes us further down the road to serfdom. we will become the next country that goes bankrupt while the european countries we are being modeled after will be on the road to recovery. who will defend us and the rest of the world when we are bankrupt? the youth of today will feel the most pain but rest assured those of us that have worked and paid taxes, social security, medicare, etc will feel some of the pain as well. obama and the left leaning democrats want to buy votes and have done so. justice roberts only wants to be seen among his washington d.c. friends as being in their upper crust class. sad to see the taxpayers and working class sold down the river. ironic though that obama wins because he has just passed and gotten supreme court approval of the largest middle class tax hikes in history (just one of many tax hikes obama has gotten passed that effect the middle class more than upper class) still obama calls them fees, etc. so that he can say he hasn’t raised taxes—what a liar. the congressman from south carolina that called obama a liar should have been apologized to instead of vice versa…..
Bruno
June 30th, 2012
8:16 pm
Is that freakazoid SoothSayer gone yet??
Good. Time for some tuneage:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T88fbHOmvRk
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
June 30th, 2012
8:20 pm
Yep, toothfairy comes to this blog thumping her chest about civility and then goes right back to kookman’s and starts a giant hair pulling, eye scratching, panty waist hissy fit with josef. And whines to kookman about it.
Soothsayer
June 30th, 2012
7:49 pm
“And, SOOTH, you don’t appreciate the inference? Why don’t you go crying to Daddy and see if he’ll ban me, too…he might…”
“SOOTH
Are you going to threaten me, too?”
Jay, I’m glad you’re here to see this. That is if you’re still here. See, all of this is about a post that josef didn’t agree with.
He can’t refute the post, so he continues with personal attacks and insults.
I haven’t been paying any attention to the kookman blog at all, and you at the Urinal can attest to this. Only because these whackjobs have infested the reasoned conversation at Wingnuts with their simplistic taunts have I ventured back into the mindless lunacy and incessant babbling.
They can have it.
Bruno
June 30th, 2012
8:26 pm
Probably a little soft for your tastes, Reporter, but a good “warmup” song:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sC3pLlBD0wo&feature=related
Bruno
June 30th, 2012
8:31 pm
Got to get stepping out with my lady…..may check back later.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rk70wuIYBBE
josef
June 30th, 2012
8:41 pm
WHINER
That was over on Jay’s frontporch…not here….
THE REST OF Y’ALL
Thought I’d drop in to say hello.
td
June 30th, 2012
8:42 pm
getalife,
I guess none of these new additional taxes effect you? 21 new taxes in Obamacare.
http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2012/06/obamacare-21-new-or-higher-taxes.html
Soothsayer
June 30th, 2012
8:43 pm
That was some show you put on over at Bookman’s the other day. I thought I might have sold tickets. Although I doubt if anyone would have paid anything for them.
Soothsayer
June 30th, 2012
8:48 pm
I’m a legend in my own mind. No one has ever been able to debate me. I’m invincible. I have delusions of grandeur. Even the might Jay Bookman is no match for my overstuffed ego. I love me. Oh, how I love me.
Soothsayer
June 30th, 2012
8:53 pm
Let me see if I can find Wingnut’s e-mail for you.
RW-(the original)
June 30th, 2012
8:57 pm
@@,
It seems like in IE you can click on tools then internet options then security. Click on the restricted sites icon then click on sites. Add meebo.com as a restricted site and it looks like it takes it away unless it works in combination with something else I’m running, but I can make it come and go at will by restricting or unrestricting that site.
md
June 30th, 2012
8:57 pm
“16. Tax on Health Insurers($60.1 bil/Jan 2014): Annual tax on the industry imposed relative to health insurance premiums collected that year. The stipulation phases in gradually until 2018, and is fully-imposed on firms with $50 million in profits.”
You folks may want to read that one again………tax on insurers
And they get their money from who?????
getalife
June 30th, 2012
9:02 pm
Say mash potatoes!
Mac and cheese!
Andy,
I guess you enjoy peace and quiet over here so we came to bust up your quiet echo chamber.
The AJC advertisement (revenue) can be hid easily with one click but somebody at Jay’s figured how to delete it permanently. I do not know because I just hide it.