Is high-speed rail really feasible for Georgia?
The Georgia DOT recently declared “feasible” three passenger-rail routes from Atlanta to other Southern cities: a straight shot to Birmingham; a line to Louisville via Nashville; and a line to Jacksonville via Savannah. While these plans do not directly relate to the T-SPLOST, they are very relevant to the multimodal transit hub planned for “The Gulch” in downtown Atlanta. But how feasible are these routes, really?
I’ll not comment today on the cost and ridership estimates, except to say the former are almost always too low and the latter almost always too high. What I want to examine is whether the routes are likely to be attractive to passengers at the prices DOT projects for each.
First, a brief detour to Europe. The Old Continent’s high-speed rail system is the aspiration of many an American train fanatic, and I’m quite familiar with it from my time living there. In 4.5 years I traveled from Brussels to London maybe a dozen times and to Paris seven or eight times — always by train. I never even considered flying (or driving, for that matter) because the train was:
- cheaper: a search Tuesday of fares two months from now found it was about $150 less expensive to go to London by train than by air; for Paris, the train was almost $700 cheaper;
- faster: allowing for 90 minutes at the airport (to cover both check-in and deplaning) vs. 30 minutes at train stations, it’s 15 minutes faster to get to London by train than by plane; for Paris, the train saves you more than half an hour;
- more convenient: train stations are generally closer to downtowns than airports are, and European train schedules often allow for as many or more departure times as airlines’ timetables do.
So, would high-speed rail from Atlanta to nearby cities be as attractive for passengers?
The GDOT study estimated only ticket prices, not travel times — although we can take some guesses at times based on distances and possible speeds. The tables below show the lowest nonstop, round-trip airfares I could find for each city pairing, for a long weekend two months from now, compared to the midpoint of GDOT’s estimated prices for a round-trip. To calculate the one-way travel times, I used the average speeds, including stops, for: Amtrak’s Acela line in the Northeast corridor (70 mph); the Eurostar train from Brussels to London (117 mph); and the Thalys train from Brussels to Paris (146 mph). It is highly unlikely we would see trains exceeding those average speeds in these three corridors — and remember: the faster the maximum speeds, the higher the capital costs. Then I added 90 minutes to the air travel times and 30 minutes to the rail travel times, as described above, to account for the time spent in the airports or train stations.
With those explanations, here’s what we get (best options are in bold-face):
As you can see, with the exception of Atlanta-Birmingham, the situation is almost opposite that in Europe. (I would note that the current Amtrak service from Atlanta to Birmingham, while even cheaper at $74 round-trip, takes a whopping 282 minutes each way.)
For the latter two routes, air travel is at least as cheap and fast as rail could hope to be. One caveat is that these timetables do not factor in travel time to the airport vs. a train station, because that would be different for each traveler. For a number of people, getting to and from a train station faster could offset some of the time advantage for air travel.
Of course, it’s one thing to buy a plane ticket or a train ticket — and something different altogether if driving is an option. For each of the above tables, driving would be roughly equivalent to rail with an average speed of 70 mph and much slower than rail at the higher speeds. But price would be very different: Even at $4/gallon for gasoline (in a car that gets 25 mpg), you’re talking about spending just $48 round-trip to Birmingham, $118 to Jacksonville, and $134 to Louisville. And that price covers everyone who can fit in the car, whereas each passenger would need their own ticket for air or rail travel. A family of four probably wouldn’t even consider spending more than $1,000 to take the train to Jacksonville when it could spend $118 on gas — and have their car with them, making it easier to get around once they’ve arrived.
There wouldn’t appear to be much flexibility for adjusting the rail prices. At those prices, and given GDOT’s ridership projections for 2020 through 2040, each line would just cover its estimated annual operations and maintenance costs. Given that the cost estimates are probably on the low side, and the ridership projections on the high side, it’s more likely the train fares would have to be higher just to break even. And by “break even,” I am not even talking about covering the tens of billions of dollars in capital costs for the three routes — this, at a time when we are having a major debate about how to allocate the $7.2 billion the T-SPLOST could raise for transportation.
Perhaps shorter segments of the proposed routes — maybe Atlanta to Nashville instead of Louisville, or to Savannah instead of Jacksonville — would be more competitive with air or auto travel. Given the foregoing, however, it’s hard to imagine high-speed rail being a wise use of our limited transportation dollars.
– By Kyle Wingfield
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360 comments Add your comment
Lil' Barry Bailout (Unexpectedly Revised Downward--Again)
June 27th, 2012
7:34 pm
Obozo should tout his own unemployment-reducing program.
Heh heh.
What a loser.
Serious Robuck
June 27th, 2012
7:42 pm
Finn, these guys will never accept reality. Bush and Cheney drove the economy over the cliff. These wingnuts criticize Obama for not patching everything up quickly, despite the fact that Republicans have filibustered everything he’s attempted to do. They want to give the steering wheel to Romney who will say anything to anybody on any issue, flash his perfect white veneers, and then go off and have another dead person baptized. God help us.
You got that right
June 27th, 2012
7:51 pm
Barry
Will you be able to or are you capable of discussing the current world economic situation and how the winner of the November election will be able to overcome that drag on the US economy?
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
June 27th, 2012
7:58 pm
disinformation is the name of the game
Yeah, md, Romney never fired a soul, never laid anyone off, and never shipped a single job overseas.
You are the epitome of misinformation.
Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!
June 27th, 2012
8:00 pm
“You are going to hear about that ALL summer. Closing factories and shipping jobs offshore do not play well in rustbelt states.”
And since these charges have ALL been proven false, Finn is admitting that the President of the United States will be lying to the American people all summer long.
A legacy of non-stop lies from the worst President in the history of this nation. What a record to be proud of, Barack!
Ol' Timer
June 27th, 2012
8:05 pm
No! No! No! All that talk is way too futuristic. Too modern. Too expensive. Too liberal. We need to move as quickly as possible back to the 19th century with ox carts, horses, carriages, buckboards, and a few steam locomotives. Geeez.
md
June 27th, 2012
8:08 pm
You revisionists on here are only fooling yourselves…….it is well documented that Bush started warning of problems with Fannie and Freddie as early as 2001…….yes, 2001, when it was outlined in his budget proposal……which are official documents and can be read by anybody with enough brain to go find them. Of course the dems are the ones that repeatedly stated that F&F were not in trouble and did not need reforming……..
Fast forward to today and amnesia has kicked in with the dems……….
md
June 27th, 2012
8:10 pm
“Yeah, md, Romney never fired a soul, never laid anyone off, and never shipped a single job overseas.”
Uh Finn……you may want to check your talking points, I think you are getting them confused…..Jefferson was referring to the out of context talking point about Romney “liking to fire people”……..come on man, bone up on your memos if you are going to play the game.
md
June 27th, 2012
8:12 pm
“You are the epitome of misinformation.”
I’ll gladly post a link to anything you have questions about…..but since you poo poo actual source material, I doubt it would do any good……but I’m willing to try to educate you……..
Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!
June 27th, 2012
8:12 pm
“Finn, these guys will never accept reality. Bush and Cheney drove the economy over the cliff.”
Now who’s not accepting reality? This recession was created by many things, not the least of which was over 30 years of bad liberal policies regarding home loans, mismanagement at Fannie and Freddie, lousy financial regulations, and ever-increasing spending by BOTH parties.
“These wingnuts criticize Obama for not patching everything up quickly, despite the fact that Republicans have filibustered everything he’s attempted to do.”
Really? Was the Stimulus filibustered? No. Cash for Clunkers? No. In fact, Obama got EVERYTHING he wanted in the first 2 years of his Presidency, and it has failed miserably. But you keep blaming those all-powerful Republicans who stopped everything this President proposed, Roebuck.
Meanwhile, I suggest YOU try a bit of reality before you post such nonsense again.
You got that right
June 27th, 2012
8:15 pm
md
The whole housing and construction mess was a combination of greed and lack of foresight. That falls on all involved.
With that said, the bubble started to burst in 06. Can you tell me what exactly the Republican controlled Congress and Bush did from 01 to Jan 07 besides a few quotes from the Pres or other elected officials? I’m not blaming Bush, Repubs, Dems or any one person or entity, however since you made it political.
just sayn
You got that right
June 27th, 2012
8:17 pm
md
Countering with Barney Frank quotes from 03 or whenever is not going to work. He was still in the minority at that time. Just to get something on to the floor he would have needed Repub support in committee. Not absolving Frank or any Dem, however when they took Congress the bubble was imploding.
I personally see it as a perfect storm and many are paying for it now, while some of the big banks were bailed out. Not sure if that was the right thing or not, but Bush and Obama both did I believe
Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!
June 27th, 2012
8:22 pm
You got that right, remember that it takes 60 votes in the Senate to move things forward. The only time that number was reached by any party was the Democrats in 2010.
The housing bubble was caused less by greed and more by bad government policies which encouraged people to buy homes they couldn’t afford, and banking regulations which enabled them to do so.
md
June 27th, 2012
8:24 pm
ygtr,
There is plenty of source material out there to research, but start here and do your own research:
http://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2008/10/20081009-10.html
I started with each claim and have been sourcing other links in an effort to educate myself…..there is plenty out there.
Of course the one big bill that the dems killed was Senate bill S-190 in 2005…….which was an actual reform bill that never made it out of committee…….voted down strictly along party lines………
Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!
June 27th, 2012
8:26 pm
I will tell you that there was NOTHING any Congress could do to stop the housing crash in the 2000’s. The policies had been in place too long, the bad loans were already in the system, and Glass-Steagall had already allowed financial institutions to mix loans with investments.
Reversing Glass-Steagall and requiring financial institutions to immediately clean up their investment portfolios might have helped, but I give that about a 20% chance of working at that time.
Michael H. Smith
June 27th, 2012
8:29 pm
Will the last Democrat in Georgia please turn off the lights?…..
June 27th, 2012
6:08 pm
If you are talking MARTA, the expansion thereof and the 52% of TSPLOST it will receive should it pass the conversation just ended.
Serious Robuck
June 27th, 2012
8:33 pm
Tiberius, the nonsense is yours, good fellow. Have you managed to block Bush’s Presidency entirely when he managed to blow the surplus Clinton left him with an economy in ruin, 4,000 kids dead in Iraq for nothing whatsoever at the cost of billions (never budgeted, of course), Halliburton enriched with no bid contracts, New Orleans devastated and left to die. Do you not remember W here in Atlanta parading around with new homeowners touting and pushing the ownerhsip society that landed millions in foreclosure? You’re delusional, at best. I’ll bet you’ve been watching Fox.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
June 27th, 2012
8:35 pm
Libtards prefer shutting whole companies down to restructuring them, and yes, in some cases, sending low-value jobs to low-wage countries.
Democrats: Economic retards.
@@
June 27th, 2012
8:37 pm
Ah MAN!!!!
(Reuters) – Stockton, California, is expected to file for bankruptcy before the end of the week, becoming the largest U.S. city to seek protection from its creditors.
No one in the city of nearly 300,000 is relishing the prospect, though some see no choice.
Stockton, which boomed a decade ago with workers from the San Francisco Bay area seeking affordable housing, is the most recent casualty of the housing bust of the past few years.
After failing to strike a deal with city employee unions and other creditors, Stockton’s city council passed a budget after a five-hour meeting on Tuesday night. The budget calls for an end to retiree healthcare benefits a year after the city files for bankruptcy, which is expected by Friday afternoon.
Stockton busted spectacularly, and it still is swimming in foreclosures. It has been cutting city jobs for years. The cost of pensions and healthcare have overwhelmed it.
Michael H. Smith
June 27th, 2012
8:52 pm
“Reviving” not reversing Glass- Steagall will cause things to be separated once again and that will not necessarily “clean up” anything. A bad investment remains a bad investment no matter where you place it on paper or in what accounts.
People, particularly those on the left, highly over rate what Glass-Steagall does. Most of them don’t even know what Glass-Steagall was or when it come into being. It’s purpose of separating banking from other investment instruments may have limited risk exposure to some extent but in today’s global environment as inter-woven as it has become those once thought hard lines drawn in the concrete seem to have faded into a blur.
As you pointed out and I agree, bad loans a.k.a. liar loans, were the main problem and remain the problem. Along with over rated credit and bond values that were no where close to real market valuation,. Like triple A ratings that in reality were double A rate at best.
Serious Robuck
June 27th, 2012
8:55 pm
Lil Barry, I think you’ve mistaken Democrats for Romney. He’s the one who enjoys firing little people and ruining their lives by shutting down their companies. Convince me I’m wrong and I’ll admit it. Furthermore, we know that Romney’s grandparents fled the US for Mexico so they could practice polygamy there. How do we know where Romney was born? Shouldn’t we demand his papers? Who exactly is his mother?
fair and balanced
June 27th, 2012
8:57 pm
rednecks don’t ride trains- just oversized four wheelers
Michael H. Smith
June 27th, 2012
9:03 pm
By the way lbb, NAFTA was one of Free Trader Bill Clinton’s greatest achievements according to wife Hilary. NAFTA of course sent millions of American jobs south of the border and it never produce the predicted 10 billion dollar trade surplus for us. In fact it actually produce a 70 billion dollars trade surplus for Mexico.
I love it when these socialist lib democrats try to hang offshore outsourcing as monopoly around the necks of Republicans and conservatives.
iggy
June 27th, 2012
9:04 pm
“Romney likes to fire people, he like that he said.”
Well who doesnt enjoy canning some unproductive lump, that is consistenly tardy, absent and is a morale killer. A good ole fashioned firing gets all the other troops in order.
Negative reinforcement can work wonders.
Ray
June 27th, 2012
9:04 pm
I personally would not use the train to those destinations. But, DC, Charleston, Tampa, N.O., would be the most interesting, so long as I could travel with a bottle or two of wine.
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
June 27th, 2012
9:12 pm
Wow, if you can’t win, change the rules:
The Texas Republican Party has released its official platform for 2012, and the repeal of the landmark Voting Rights Act of 1965 is one of its central planks.
“We urge that the Voter Rights Act of 1965 codified and updated in 1973 be repealed and not reauthorized,” the platform reads.
Under a provision of the Voting Rights Act, certain jurisdictions must obtain permission from the federal government — called “preclearance” — before they change their voting rules. The rule was put in place in jurisdictions with a history of voter disenfranchisement.
http://s3.amazonaws.com/texasgop_pre/assets/original/2012-Platform-Final.pdf
md
June 27th, 2012
9:12 pm
“He’s the one who enjoys firing little people and ruining their lives by shutting down their companies. Convince me I’m wrong and I’ll admit it.”
Start with the employees of Staples and Sports Authority and then get back to us…….
And when researching what Bain did, don’t forget to ask oneself if it was better that 10-20% of a company got laid off or that 100% were laid off if help wasn’t there…….
Too many people only read the memo’s and never look into the reality of each individual situation……making oneself ignorant is inexcusable when one is sitting on a computer.
iggy
June 27th, 2012
9:13 pm
Yes, and the union contracts will become null and void!! Seems the Dems are their own Union Busters.
md
June 27th, 2012
9:17 pm
“Former GST Steel Vice President B.C. Huselton explains in the video that the company was in dire straits when Bain took over, and that the firm did its best to save them.
“There’s this vampire story that Bain comes in and shows its teeth and sucks the blood out of the operation,” Huselton reportedly says in the video. “It was really entirely the opposite of that. We went looking for a blood donor.””
Two sides to every story……but the memos usually only have one……
Michael H. Smith
June 27th, 2012
9:19 pm
When obumer took office unemployment was around 7% three and one-half years later unemployment is at what percentage?
Yeah, someone is making themselves ignorant alright.
Serious Robuck
June 27th, 2012
9:24 pm
md, you’re a valiant warrior for your cause, good man. Staples and the Sports Authority are the success stories. Why are there so many tragedies? Romney is a vulture who cares about no one except fellow Mormons.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Unexpectedly Revised Downward - Again)
June 27th, 2012
9:25 pm
Finn McCool (The System isn’t Broken; I’m Just Incompetent): Wow, if you can’t win, change the rules
——
Actually, what Texas is proposing is that the rules be the same for Texas as elsewhere.
Don’t let facts get in the way of your hatred for real Americans though.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Unexpectedly Revised Downward - Again)
June 27th, 2012
9:27 pm
md, you’re wasting your time with these losers. They hate profit, they hate capitalism, and it springs from their own inability to compete. They have their narrative–it’s being fed to them by Dear Leader, Obozo. As long as their EBT cards keep getting topped off, all is well.
Serious Robuck
June 27th, 2012
9:28 pm
md, why shouldn’t we be concerned about Romney’s papers? Do you argue that his grandparents, including several grandmothers, were there to do their thing? Who is his mother? He may have been born in Mexico. Do you know definitively that he wasn’t?
You got that right
June 27th, 2012
9:31 pm
md
I didn’t absolve or indict anyone, no need to be so defensive about Bush
A bill in 2005 was going to cancel out a bubble that started to burst in 06?
You really believe that in less than a yr mortgage issues would be resolved, derivative issues, govt bs, etc?
You really don’t believe that, do you?
Serious Robuck
June 27th, 2012
9:34 pm
Lil Barry, you don’t know anything about us evil liberals. I suspect my net worth is considerably more than yours, little fellow. The financial services industry has rewarded me nicely, Lil Barry. How about you? If you think I hate profit, you’re wrong. I revel in it. I thrive on it. I enjoy it even now. Do you, Lil Barry? I want prosperity for everybody, not just for white Auburn graduates.
You got that right
June 27th, 2012
9:37 pm
Barry
Calling someone a loser based on who they voted for, speaks volumes about one’s intellect and the depth of their cognitive thought processes.
I would hope you a better person than what you display on this blog.
politics is but one facet of any given individual’s thoughts and make up of that person.
Lot of great people out there, regardless of who they voted for or didn’t vote for in any given election. Mind you, I wish more people would vote but that doesn’t make them a “loser” because they didn’t vote or voted for the individual I didn’t vote for.
Show some class. Lead the way. Calling people “losers” isn’t what leaders do.
Are you a leader or follower? Your choice in life, no one can do that for you. Take off the blinders and free yourself. Not saying change your political views by any means, but see that there are great people all over
Joey
June 27th, 2012
9:41 pm
What you are forgetting is that trains make stops, plaines dont. Not every body on the train is going to go from Atlanta to Jacksonville. Some may go to Savannah to Jax, Atlanta to Macon, Savannah to Atlanta Airport, Macon to Brunswick, ect… 2 Trains on this route can accomplish the work of 25 planes. The same is true for the other routes.
People speculate about the demand talking about tourist, but the main component would be business travel. Atlanta is a major convention and commerce center and these trains would only boost that. Most major Hotels and convention centers are within WALKING distance of the gulch station site. The atlanta station will also have a direct connection to MARTA, making it possible to get to virtually every major business destination.
Also the route to Louisville would connect directly to the Chicago hub network, making possible a single train to chicago.
md
June 27th, 2012
9:44 pm
“Why are there so many tragedies?”
To the best of my knowledge, Bain has an 80% success rate……hardly more tragedies than successes. Dealing with ailing companies there is bound to be failures.
md
June 27th, 2012
9:45 pm
“A bill in 2005 was going to cancel out a bubble that started to burst in 06?
You really believe that in less than a yr mortgage issues would be resolved, derivative issues, govt bs, etc?”
No, I pointed out the 2005 bill to show the continued pattern of non action on the part of the dems…….Bush was sounding the alarm as early as 2001……his first year in office.
JDW
June 27th, 2012
9:49 pm
@Tiberuis…”And since these charges have ALL been proven false”
Only in your mind…they do have help for delusions folks maybe you should find some before you harm yourself.
md
June 27th, 2012
9:51 pm
“md, you’re wasting your time with these losers.”
All in good fun……..if I can enlighten just one I’ve done my part for the greater good of society
After all, I used to be a registered dem until my mentor taught me to continue to ask “why?” until I got to the end of the line vs stopping in the middle. I see that in a lot of folks on here…..they could answer their own questions of they took the time to dig just a little deeper.
But yes, some don’t want to look any deeper…….they like their ignorant bliss……
Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!
June 27th, 2012
9:54 pm
“He’s the one who enjoys firing little people and ruining their lives by shutting down their companies. Convince me I’m wrong and I’ll admit it.”
Roebuck (I just can’t use the term Serious with you, as you are incapable of being so), you have the DNC talking points down pat, but like Obama, you’re lying through your teeth.
First of all, Romney said he likes to fire people who aren’t doing good work. Of course, seeing as you’re a liberal, doing good work isn’t really in your DNA, is it?
As for shutting down companies, Bain Capital under Romney’s leadership had a 70% success rate of keeping companies afloat or growing them – far higher than most venture capital companies success rates in the industry.
As to your contention that I ignored the Bush years, you may need to brush up on your reading comprehension just a little bit. You might also wish to stay on topic, which was that YOU claimed that Bush and Cheney caused the recession. Now, no one disputes the spending that BOTH parties were responsible for in the 2000’s (yes, Roebuck, BOTH parties). Neither side submitted ANY proposals to slow down or reduce spending, so I suggest you get off your high horse and remember that Democrats, even in the minority, can propose their own spending bills. That they went along merrily with the Republicans is FACT, Roebuck. If you do not think so, please produce one bill by any Democrat in Congress in the 2000’s that called for reduced spending. I won’t hold my breath waiting, son.
Oh, and once again, there was never any surplus during the Clinton years. That was a smoke and mirrors accounting trick by the GOP and the Clinton White House to make it look like we had one.
Finally, Haliburton, the Iraq war (which I disagreed with from day one, btw) and New Orleans had NOTHING to do with the economy failing.
Your responses, however, have EVERYTHING to do with YOU failing.
JDW
June 27th, 2012
9:55 pm
@Tiberuis…”Obama got EVERYTHING he wanted in the first 2 years of his Presidency, and it has failed miserably.”
I guess shifting monthly employment numbers by 750K to the positive or increased GDP growth from -6 to +2 is failing in your world. In the real world it is averting disaster …disaster caused by the same policies Romney espouses.
Your problem is the false view of the “Good Ole Days”…you can’t even fathom the problem Duhbya stuck us with and how far we have come…never fear though in four more years it will be back to more consistent growth. Big problems take time.
I notice the leads in FL, OH and PA are widening…baring huge swings its game over.
You got that right
June 27th, 2012
10:00 pm
md
Thanks for the exchange
Lil' Barry Bailout (Unexpectedly Revised Downward - Again)
June 27th, 2012
10:02 pm
Serious Robuck: I want prosperity for everybody, not just for white Auburn graduates.
————-
LOL at your idea of what constitutes the elite!
You really don’t know very much.
Leave the bubble. Open your mind.
Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!
June 27th, 2012
10:02 pm
JDW, if you had any intellectual capacity whatsoever, you’d be able to discern the difference between “Bain Capital” and “Mitt Romney” in Obama’s ads.
The ads specify “Romney’s Bain Capital”, yet fails to mention that the steel company was going to go under 8 years earlier if Bain hadn’t invested in it, and that under Bain, they declared bankruptcy nearly 3 years AFTER Romney left Bain. Another ad specifying “Bain’s outsourcing” highlights a company whose jobs were outsourced 2 years after Romney left Bain. Another highlights a firm that declared bankruptcy over a year after Romney left Bain Capital.
So yeah, JDW, ALL those ads are lies from your wonderful Liar-in-Chief. And completely debunked with FACTS if you take the time to actually do your research them.
Not surprised you’d buy into them, though. You’re a typical idiot liberal who believes everything told to you without bothering to check the facts for yourself.
JDW
June 27th, 2012
10:02 pm
@Tiberuis…”Oh, and once again, there was never any surplus during the Clinton years. That was a smoke and mirrors accounting trick by the GOP and the Clinton White House to make it look like we had one.”
The CBO and US bank accounts seem to differ…why I am not suprised you can’t understand plain black and white numbers…
1998 surplus 0.8% of GDP
1999 surplus 1.4% of GDP
2000 surplus 2.4% of GDP
2001 surplus 1.3% of GDP (Clintons last budget year ending in July)
http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/Historicals
When you get help for the delusional problem ask for remedial math and reading as well.
You got that right
June 27th, 2012
10:05 pm
“Of course, seeing as you’re a liberal, doing good work isn’t really in your DNA, is it?”
Really? Tell me that was hyperbole.
Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!
June 27th, 2012
10:06 pm
JDW, even YOU should know that the CBO only produces figures based on the parameters that are given to them by the requester.
Wait! That would require that you know anything (which of, course, has been proven that you don’t).