Is high-speed rail really feasible for Georgia?
The Georgia DOT recently declared “feasible” three passenger-rail routes from Atlanta to other Southern cities: a straight shot to Birmingham; a line to Louisville via Nashville; and a line to Jacksonville via Savannah. While these plans do not directly relate to the T-SPLOST, they are very relevant to the multimodal transit hub planned for “The Gulch” in downtown Atlanta. But how feasible are these routes, really?
I’ll not comment today on the cost and ridership estimates, except to say the former are almost always too low and the latter almost always too high. What I want to examine is whether the routes are likely to be attractive to passengers at the prices DOT projects for each.
First, a brief detour to Europe. The Old Continent’s high-speed rail system is the aspiration of many an American train fanatic, and I’m quite familiar with it from my time living there. In 4.5 years I traveled from Brussels to London maybe a dozen times and to Paris seven or eight times — always by train. I never even considered flying (or driving, for that matter) because the train was:
- cheaper: a search Tuesday of fares two months from now found it was about $150 less expensive to go to London by train than by air; for Paris, the train was almost $700 cheaper;
- faster: allowing for 90 minutes at the airport (to cover both check-in and deplaning) vs. 30 minutes at train stations, it’s 15 minutes faster to get to London by train than by plane; for Paris, the train saves you more than half an hour;
- more convenient: train stations are generally closer to downtowns than airports are, and European train schedules often allow for as many or more departure times as airlines’ timetables do.
So, would high-speed rail from Atlanta to nearby cities be as attractive for passengers?
The GDOT study estimated only ticket prices, not travel times — although we can take some guesses at times based on distances and possible speeds. The tables below show the lowest nonstop, round-trip airfares I could find for each city pairing, for a long weekend two months from now, compared to the midpoint of GDOT’s estimated prices for a round-trip. To calculate the one-way travel times, I used the average speeds, including stops, for: Amtrak’s Acela line in the Northeast corridor (70 mph); the Eurostar train from Brussels to London (117 mph); and the Thalys train from Brussels to Paris (146 mph). It is highly unlikely we would see trains exceeding those average speeds in these three corridors — and remember: the faster the maximum speeds, the higher the capital costs. Then I added 90 minutes to the air travel times and 30 minutes to the rail travel times, as described above, to account for the time spent in the airports or train stations.
With those explanations, here’s what we get (best options are in bold-face):
As you can see, with the exception of Atlanta-Birmingham, the situation is almost opposite that in Europe. (I would note that the current Amtrak service from Atlanta to Birmingham, while even cheaper at $74 round-trip, takes a whopping 282 minutes each way.)
For the latter two routes, air travel is at least as cheap and fast as rail could hope to be. One caveat is that these timetables do not factor in travel time to the airport vs. a train station, because that would be different for each traveler. For a number of people, getting to and from a train station faster could offset some of the time advantage for air travel.
Of course, it’s one thing to buy a plane ticket or a train ticket — and something different altogether if driving is an option. For each of the above tables, driving would be roughly equivalent to rail with an average speed of 70 mph and much slower than rail at the higher speeds. But price would be very different: Even at $4/gallon for gasoline (in a car that gets 25 mpg), you’re talking about spending just $48 round-trip to Birmingham, $118 to Jacksonville, and $134 to Louisville. And that price covers everyone who can fit in the car, whereas each passenger would need their own ticket for air or rail travel. A family of four probably wouldn’t even consider spending more than $1,000 to take the train to Jacksonville when it could spend $118 on gas — and have their car with them, making it easier to get around once they’ve arrived.
There wouldn’t appear to be much flexibility for adjusting the rail prices. At those prices, and given GDOT’s ridership projections for 2020 through 2040, each line would just cover its estimated annual operations and maintenance costs. Given that the cost estimates are probably on the low side, and the ridership projections on the high side, it’s more likely the train fares would have to be higher just to break even. And by “break even,” I am not even talking about covering the tens of billions of dollars in capital costs for the three routes — this, at a time when we are having a major debate about how to allocate the $7.2 billion the T-SPLOST could raise for transportation.
Perhaps shorter segments of the proposed routes — maybe Atlanta to Nashville instead of Louisville, or to Savannah instead of Jacksonville — would be more competitive with air or auto travel. Given the foregoing, however, it’s hard to imagine high-speed rail being a wise use of our limited transportation dollars.
– By Kyle Wingfield
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360 comments Add your comment
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
June 27th, 2012
4:12 pm
Finn, crybaby, we used to call it “checks and balance”. Democrats act like a spoiled brat whose parents finally said “no”.
Will the last Democrat in Georgia please turn off the lights?.....
June 27th, 2012
4:15 pm
@ Rafe-
Also, the type of private investment in public transportation infrastructure in Texas that you mentioned would be an absolute God-send if it were fully embraced as a way of investing in mass transit in Georgia.
The previous incarnation of the I-75/I-575 HOT Lane project was a public-private partnership in which a private company was willing to invest up to more than one-third of the cost of constructing, operating and maintaining the project during its lifespan.
Public-private partnerships may not necessarily be all that politically-viable for road projects, but they could definitely help the state move the ball forward for properly-placed rail transit-anchored projects, especially when the private funding is combined with user-fee or fare-based financing, the combination of which could make transit lines totally self-sufficient and totally negate the need for tax funded public financing.
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
June 27th, 2012
4:22 pm
Did Romney take a stand on anything today yet? The day is still young!
Come on Romney! Stand for SOMETHING!
We know what he likes:
1)cheesy grits
2) trees that grow just the right height
3) ummmmmmmm. I got nothing else
Will the last Democrat in Georgia please turn off the lights?.....
June 27th, 2012
4:23 pm
nmonroe25
June 27th, 2012
3:52 pm
From what I understand, the feasibility study was done on an incomplete proposal as the proposed high-speed rail line that they are talking about is not supposed to stop at Louisville, but will extend north to Indianapolis where the line will link up with what is the present-day Amtrak Cardinal passenger rail line (between Washington DC and Chicago) and run through Indianapolis and on into Chicago, meaning that it is really a Jacksonville-Chicago high-speed rail line by way of Savannah, Atlanta, Chattanooga, Nashville, Bowling Green, Louisville and Indianapolis.
Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!
June 27th, 2012
4:23 pm
“Soon enough the Party of No will be in the rear view mirror and we will be able to move faster.”
Yeah, ’cause 2010 was such a glaring retreat for the GOP, right, JDW?
Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!
June 27th, 2012
4:25 pm
“Did Romney take a stand on anything today yet?”
Yeah, Finn. More freedom than your Disaster-in-Chief wants is to have.
Anything else?
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
June 27th, 2012
4:29 pm
Last Democrat
Just for the record the city of Canton has a massive white elephant water reservoir they would like to sell. It was built 5-10 years ago as a shared expense with the Cobb Water Authority. Canton wants out, it is bankrupting the city. They are getting no revenue and the bonds have to be paid each month. It took longer to build than planned and cost about twice what it was projected to cost, which is normal for public projects it seems.
Although the reservoir is full and water is available, they can’t get a permit from the Corp of Engineers to release water into Lake Altoona, for Cobb to draw from. The city has not needed the water, so they are not drawing out either. More government planning gone awry. This is the reason, none of the other reservoirs that were planned are being started.
@@
June 27th, 2012
4:29 pm
Is California’s bullet train feasible?
Not if environmentalists get their way.
Jerry Brown abandons bid to protect high-speed rail from environmental law
Read more here: http://www.sacbee.com/2012/06/21/4577932/jerry-brown-abandons-bid-to-protect.html#storylink=cpy
Let’s see…originally the cost was gonna be $35 billion, then it went to $68 billion, now it’s gonna be close to $100 billion.
With the environmentalists in the caboose, the cost will likely rise to well over $100 billion.
Will the last Democrat in Georgia please turn off the lights?.....
June 27th, 2012
4:36 pm
Eugene
June 27th, 2012
3:29 pm
Restarting Georgia’s statewide passenger railroad system is not a bad idea as many smaller regional cities around the state outside of the Atlanta Region (Macon, Columbus, Rome, Gainesville, Dalton, Augusta, Savannah, Athens, Albany, etc) highly-desire a passenger rail link as an economic development tool for their sagging local economies and to have a direct psychological link to the perennial growth and prosperity of Metro Atlanta so that they feel that will that they are taking part in the growth and prosperity of the Atlanta Region that they feel has passed them over.
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
June 27th, 2012
4:39 pm
Finn/aka Cheesy Grits
3) Repeal Oblamercare, if the Supremes don’t act first. Thought I would help out as you were struggling there. I can go on if you wish, but you only wanted three.
I can think of three for Oblamer, if that helps, 1) Raise Taxes 2) wreck the economy 3) Restrain Energy Production. I could go on there too.
md
June 27th, 2012
4:40 pm
“Did Romney take a stand on anything today yet?”
Personally, I’d rather have a do nothing President than one that circumvents Congress and implements his own agenda…………….a la the current fella.
md
June 27th, 2012
4:42 pm
“as many smaller regional cities around the state outside of the Atlanta Region (Macon, Columbus, Rome, Gainesville, Dalton, Augusta, Savannah, Athens, Albany, etc) highly-desire a passenger rail link as an economic development tool for their sagging local economies”
Except their sagging economies can’t afford it so they usually want others to do the heavy lifting……
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
June 27th, 2012
4:42 pm
@@
That California train story is a hoot. If they don’t get it started by 31 Dec, they lose the money. The environmental wieners will not let them get it started and Jerry is a charter member of the wieners. He wants to abandon his environmental advocacy in order to get that money and the jobs it will create.
Perfect case of the medicine becoming the poison.
Will the last Democrat in Georgia please turn off the lights?.....
June 27th, 2012
4:47 pm
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer’s ineptocracy
June 27th, 2012
4:29 pm
The Canton reservoir is a really good example that Metro Atlanta does not need to go out and attempt to build a dozen major politically-difficult and financially-unviable reservoirs like a North Texas.
The Atlanta Region can likely much more effectively attain its increased water supply, water storage and even flood control objectives with the planning and construction of several dozen much smaller neighborhood-sized manmade lakes and reservoirs as a reservoir doesn’t have to be the size of a Lake Lanier or even a Lake Allatoona to be effective at helping to manage a region’s water resources.
A reservoir can be almost as small as a neighborhood lake to help achieve the desired goals of expanding the water supply, water storage and providing flood control.
MrLiberty
June 27th, 2012
4:49 pm
And don’t forget, thanks to the fascist/totalitarians in our congress and white house we will all likely face the pleasure of body cavity searches, gate rape, cancer-causing porno scans, etc. courtesy of the idiots at the TSA as they strive to infect even more of this country with their freedom-hating cancer. So easily add another 15-20 minutes to the train times in the near future and a few more if you have children as they will need to be consoled after their molestation.
What I do know is that I can drive all of those in comparable times for less money and can have the convenience of my car when I arrive. I can avoid the molestations (for now), bring what I want in the car with me, and don’t have to be subjected to the chronic schedule problems, etc. that we can certainly count on Amtrak for (if that’s who eventually runs these).
If these routes make economic sense, let a private consortium of investors risk THEIR money on the project. There is absolutely NO need to steal from the citizens AGAIN on yet another transit boondoggle.
Oh, and vote no on the SPLOST in July.
Jefferson
June 27th, 2012
4:50 pm
md seem paranoid to me, I may be wrong, I may be right.
Nothing is as bad as it seems, nothing is as good as it seems.
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
June 27th, 2012
4:54 pm
15 people or so a day want to come to Atlanta or go to Albany. How successful is a train going to be. When they invented the automobile and made it affordable, the train became obsolete for southern purposes. Maybe if you live in a filing cabinet sized apartment house crammed against an overpopulated apartment house on either side and parking is $200 per month and spaces limited, you use a bike to get around, and taxes are astronomical, you might want to take an overcrowded slow train.
So far, Southerners have avoided placing themselves in that type horrible, congested, overpopulated environment, but there are people on here rushing to embrace a future just like that. Save me a coolie suit, a bicycle, and a studio apartment, I maybe not be as enthusiastic about getting there and run as fast as some of you. If I don’t make it, it will probably be just as well.
Will the last Democrat in Georgia please turn off the lights?.....
June 27th, 2012
4:56 pm
md
June 27th, 2012
4:42 pm
Just because that’s what those smaller outlying regional cities around the state want does not mean that it is necessarily financially viable at this time.
Heck, most of these plans for rail may not necessarily even be fully-realized until mid-century as a transportation infrastructure network that complex cannot be built overnight.
And even in the currently seemingly improbable event that any of this proposed rail were to actually come online, it would more than likely come online one passenger rail line at a time and would be likely would not occur until the 2030’s at this point at the earliest.
JDW
June 27th, 2012
5:00 pm
@Finn…”We know what he likes:”
Don’t forget “firing people”
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
June 27th, 2012
5:03 pm
Oh, romney is for Freedom? Oh, ain’t that quaint!
It takes passion to like freedom……
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
June 27th, 2012
5:06 pm
JDW, he also likes shipping our jobs overseas!
Makes him some more moneyyyyyyyyy!
Road Scholar
June 27th, 2012
5:07 pm
Rafe by visual pollution , I thought that you were referring to those capitalist billboards that are along our highways blocking the view of America the beautiful? Oh, except the strip club and professional sport cheerleader ones!
Lil' Barry Bailout (Unexpectedly Revised Downward--Again)
June 27th, 2012
5:09 pm
President Romney is for lowering unemployment from Obozo’s 8-10% to a more Our-President-Bush-like 4-6%.
President Romney is for getting the deficit below Obozo’s disastrous $1.5 trillion.
President Romney is for reforming entitlements before they go broke–Obozo’s done nothing except hasten their demise.
President Romney is for keeping our missile defenses, rather than giving them away to the Russians as a more “flexible” Obozo wants to do.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Unexpectedly Revised Downward--Again)
June 27th, 2012
5:11 pm
Democrats are for keeping those $0.70-an-hour jobs here in America. Problem is, folks want to get paid $20 an hour, and if they do, no one’s going to buy their products.
Democrats: Economic retards.
Jefferson
June 27th, 2012
5:11 pm
Romney likes to fire people, he like that he said.
killerj
June 27th, 2012
5:15 pm
Good Deduction My Dear Watson.
md
June 27th, 2012
5:16 pm
“md seem paranoid to me”
Merely stating the obvious……if one has their eyes open.
And spare us the out of context talking points on firing people…..that really makes you look silly.
Will the last Democrat in Georgia please turn off the lights?.....
June 27th, 2012
5:20 pm
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer’s ineptocracy
June 27th, 2012
4:54 pm
{{”15 people or so a day want to come to Atlanta or go to Albany. How successful is a train going to be.”}}
For the sake of conversation, as there doesn’t look to be any trains to Albany coming online anytime soon and certainly not within our lifetimes at this point, any potential train to Albany wouldn’t just run straight to Albany, but would run out of Atlanta south to Albany by way of Conley, Ellenwood, Rex, Stockbridge, McDonough, Locust Grove, Jackson, Macon, Fort Valley, Montezuma and Americus.
Michael H. Smith
June 27th, 2012
5:26 pm
I’d really like to see just how much in government subsidies the airline industry in this country is receiving Kyle?
I’m not in favor of more AMTRAKS (gub’ment railroads), but then again I can’t and I doubt that you can completely take high speed rail off the table Kyle, as it seems you didn’t.
At some point limits come into this transportation picture. Only so much air space, only so much open land to build roads; then high speed rail starts to become more acceptable.
However, one last thought to pass along… Competition, in abundance and the diversity thereof, is the best Regulator and form of Regulation for the market and for the benefit of the consumers.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Unexpectedly Revised Downward--Again)
June 27th, 2012
5:28 pm
Amen to that last paragraph, MHS!
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
June 27th, 2012
5:42 pm
Democrats Afraid to Be Seen with Obama?
Wouldn’t you be?
geez
You got that right
June 27th, 2012
5:49 pm
“Democrats Afraid to Be Seen with Obama?
Wouldn’t you be?
geez”
And he is still going to win. Yes, you read it here. No maybes , no could wins…… he will WIN.
“Write this down. Make a little note to remind you if you in case you didn’t know”
All the talk will not change the inevitable. It wont be because Obama is much of anything. It will be because Romney and the Republicans will FAIL to convince the right people in the right states.
It will be close, but NO CIGAR for Romney
Will the last Democrat in Georgia please turn off the lights?.....
June 27th, 2012
6:08 pm
Michael H. Smith
June 27th, 2012
5:26 pm
You make some very good points as high-speed rail is something take probably cannot and should not necessarily be taken off of the table over the long-term as our air capacity and road infrastructures move towards being completely maxed-out in the future.
But like many other posters on here have pointed out today, the high-speed rail infrastructure cannot reasonably be developed until well after the local transit infrastructures in principal major cities along a route, especially here in extremely transportation mobility-challenged Atlanta.
As of right now, Metro Atlanta’s most pressing transportation need is not high-speed passenger rail out to other cities around the Southeast.
Metro Atlanta’s most pressing transportation needs are expanding the capacity of our Interstate and freeway system to accommodate the increasingly heavy freight truck traffic that uses Atlanta-area Interstates on a very-consistent basis as well as providing a viable transit alternative to our crowded rush-hour freeways in the form of express commuter buses (shorter term) and regional commuter trains (longer term).
You also make a good point about not wanting anymore government-run railroads like Amtrak as any new rail transit alternatives that are developed should NOT be fully-operated exclusively by the government and should NOT be paid for with taxpayer funds and operated, but rather mass transit should be funded primarily with user fees in the form of distance-based fares and private investment that can actually help fully fund the full cost of constructing, operating, maintaining and expanding the transit service and infrastructure WITHOUT the use of public subsidies in the form of increased taxes.
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
June 27th, 2012
6:08 pm
You got that right
It will be close, but NO CIGAR for Romney
Any chance you will also share the Mega Millions numbers with us?
I guess you think that Jerry Sandusky is innocent too, right?
md
June 27th, 2012
6:09 pm
Obama might have a problem……considering his base is still unemployed, they may have a hard time rounding up the funds to get them to the polls. Maybe they can convince the newly minted immigrants to drop them off on their way to get their work permits……….
You got that right
June 27th, 2012
6:20 pm
“I guess you think that Jerry Sandusky is innocent too, right?”
Uh? go after me for what I say but keep your sick Sandusky fantasies to yourself
You are sick
Serious Robuck
June 27th, 2012
6:36 pm
If we continue on our current trajectory in Georgia, I’ll be able to take the stagecoach home to Thomasville before too long.
md
June 27th, 2012
6:46 pm
“If we continue on our current trajectory in Georgia”
GA has more backwoods four lane than any state I’ve been through…….just because ATL has a problem doesn’t mean the whole state does. A lot of growth along the coast as the suburbanites have discovered a better quality of life……..sitting in a beach chair beats the heck out of sitting in traffic….
Lil' Barry Bailout (Unexpectedly Revised Downward--Again)
June 27th, 2012
7:10 pm
The only folks whining about traffic are the geniuses who work in Atlanta or on the other side of Atlanta.
Deal with it. You made that choice, not me.
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
June 27th, 2012
7:14 pm
President Romney is for lowering unemployment from Obozo’s 8-10% to a more Our-President-Bush-like 4-6%.
Oh WOW! That is SUCH a strong argument for what Romney “wants” to do. Too bad he doesn’t have, and can’t offer, a plan for getting there…..
I mean, I want world peace……but, ya know…..if wishes were horses…
President Romney is for getting the deficit below Obozo’s disastrous $1.5 trillion.
Same as above, where is his plan selling us on how he will get there?
chirp, chirp…
Lil' Barry Bailout (Unexpectedly Revised Downward--Again)
June 27th, 2012
7:18 pm
That’s not what President Romney “wants”. That’s what he’ll “do”.
It’s not exactly rocket science.
Just remove the anti-capital, anti-free-market, anti-private-property Marxist from our White House.
You got that right
June 27th, 2012
7:25 pm
Barry @ 7:18
That sounds good and it might be a start, but wont specific policies need to be put in place.
Will the world economy not continue to be a obstacle in terms of the US economy regardless of who wins the election?
What private property of yours has been confiscated and when did this occur?
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
June 27th, 2012
7:26 pm
And spare us the out of context talking points on firing people…..that really makes you look silly.
You are going to hear about that ALL summer. Closing factories and shipping jobs offshore do not play well in rustbelt states. Gotta push that and expand on it later….
Lil' Barry Bailout (Unexpectedly Revised Downward--Again)
June 27th, 2012
7:26 pm
where is [President Romney's] plan
—————–
Please tell me you’re not that ignorant.
Ever heard of the Google? You might try finding His official campaign web site.
Duh.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Unexpectedly Revised Downward--Again)
June 27th, 2012
7:27 pm
Obozo told us what his plan was four years ago.
Fail.
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
June 27th, 2012
7:29 pm
It’s not exactly rocket science.
Well, LBB, why didn’t W and his people fix it all before he left office if it’s sooooooo easy to do and all…..the crash happened in September 2007. That gave W a whole year. Guess he didn’t have time? A lame duck but didn’t have time to do what you explain as being so easy?
Lil' Barry Bailout (Unexpectedly Revised Downward--Again)
June 27th, 2012
7:31 pm
why didn’t W and his people fix it all before he left office
——————
He did. TARP fixed the Dodd-Frank housing mess and ended up costing nothing, as all the money was repaid. Our President Bush bequeathed a recovery unto Obozo and the recession ended in June 2009.
Yawn.
md
June 27th, 2012
7:32 pm
“You are going to hear about that ALL summer.”
I don’t doubt that for a minute……..disinformation is the name of the game when folks are too lazy to look it up themselves. We have plenty on here who obviously never use their computers for anything other than blogging.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Unexpectedly Revised Downward--Again)
June 27th, 2012
7:33 pm
Oh, and the Dodd-Frank “roll the dice” housing disaster could have been avoided altogether had Democrats not obstructed Our President Bush’s efforts to reform Fannie and Freddie.
Just another Democrat mess that had to be cleaned up by Our President Bush.
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
June 27th, 2012
7:33 pm
That’s truly delusional. Sad.