Is high-speed rail really feasible for Georgia?
The Georgia DOT recently declared “feasible” three passenger-rail routes from Atlanta to other Southern cities: a straight shot to Birmingham; a line to Louisville via Nashville; and a line to Jacksonville via Savannah. While these plans do not directly relate to the T-SPLOST, they are very relevant to the multimodal transit hub planned for “The Gulch” in downtown Atlanta. But how feasible are these routes, really?
I’ll not comment today on the cost and ridership estimates, except to say the former are almost always too low and the latter almost always too high. What I want to examine is whether the routes are likely to be attractive to passengers at the prices DOT projects for each.
First, a brief detour to Europe. The Old Continent’s high-speed rail system is the aspiration of many an American train fanatic, and I’m quite familiar with it from my time living there. In 4.5 years I traveled from Brussels to London maybe a dozen times and to Paris seven or eight times — always by train. I never even considered flying (or driving, for that matter) because the train was:
- cheaper: a search Tuesday of fares two months from now found it was about $150 less expensive to go to London by train than by air; for Paris, the train was almost $700 cheaper;
- faster: allowing for 90 minutes at the airport (to cover both check-in and deplaning) vs. 30 minutes at train stations, it’s 15 minutes faster to get to London by train than by plane; for Paris, the train saves you more than half an hour;
- more convenient: train stations are generally closer to downtowns than airports are, and European train schedules often allow for as many or more departure times as airlines’ timetables do.
So, would high-speed rail from Atlanta to nearby cities be as attractive for passengers?
The GDOT study estimated only ticket prices, not travel times — although we can take some guesses at times based on distances and possible speeds. The tables below show the lowest nonstop, round-trip airfares I could find for each city pairing, for a long weekend two months from now, compared to the midpoint of GDOT’s estimated prices for a round-trip. To calculate the one-way travel times, I used the average speeds, including stops, for: Amtrak’s Acela line in the Northeast corridor (70 mph); the Eurostar train from Brussels to London (117 mph); and the Thalys train from Brussels to Paris (146 mph). It is highly unlikely we would see trains exceeding those average speeds in these three corridors — and remember: the faster the maximum speeds, the higher the capital costs. Then I added 90 minutes to the air travel times and 30 minutes to the rail travel times, as described above, to account for the time spent in the airports or train stations.
With those explanations, here’s what we get (best options are in bold-face):
As you can see, with the exception of Atlanta-Birmingham, the situation is almost opposite that in Europe. (I would note that the current Amtrak service from Atlanta to Birmingham, while even cheaper at $74 round-trip, takes a whopping 282 minutes each way.)
For the latter two routes, air travel is at least as cheap and fast as rail could hope to be. One caveat is that these timetables do not factor in travel time to the airport vs. a train station, because that would be different for each traveler. For a number of people, getting to and from a train station faster could offset some of the time advantage for air travel.
Of course, it’s one thing to buy a plane ticket or a train ticket — and something different altogether if driving is an option. For each of the above tables, driving would be roughly equivalent to rail with an average speed of 70 mph and much slower than rail at the higher speeds. But price would be very different: Even at $4/gallon for gasoline (in a car that gets 25 mpg), you’re talking about spending just $48 round-trip to Birmingham, $118 to Jacksonville, and $134 to Louisville. And that price covers everyone who can fit in the car, whereas each passenger would need their own ticket for air or rail travel. A family of four probably wouldn’t even consider spending more than $1,000 to take the train to Jacksonville when it could spend $118 on gas — and have their car with them, making it easier to get around once they’ve arrived.
There wouldn’t appear to be much flexibility for adjusting the rail prices. At those prices, and given GDOT’s ridership projections for 2020 through 2040, each line would just cover its estimated annual operations and maintenance costs. Given that the cost estimates are probably on the low side, and the ridership projections on the high side, it’s more likely the train fares would have to be higher just to break even. And by “break even,” I am not even talking about covering the tens of billions of dollars in capital costs for the three routes — this, at a time when we are having a major debate about how to allocate the $7.2 billion the T-SPLOST could raise for transportation.
Perhaps shorter segments of the proposed routes — maybe Atlanta to Nashville instead of Louisville, or to Savannah instead of Jacksonville — would be more competitive with air or auto travel. Given the foregoing, however, it’s hard to imagine high-speed rail being a wise use of our limited transportation dollars.
– By Kyle Wingfield
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360 comments Add your comment
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
June 27th, 2012
11:31 am
We left out the obvious choice here, Escalade, 79MPH, Led Zeppelin hammering out of the Bose 7.1’s and no hairy liberal women crowding me out.
Priceless.
Kyle Wingfield
June 27th, 2012
11:34 am
bu2 @ 10:52: Business travelers are, generally speaking, also the least price-sensitive consumers and most likely to look at travel time, among other factors. And, except to Birmingham, rail doesn’t stack up well to air on travel times.
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
June 27th, 2012
11:36 am
And, you can’t intimidate any nearby Priuses while you’re on a choo choo train.
md
June 27th, 2012
11:36 am
The main difference I see is public vs private……the airlines are funded by the market through the private sector (except where our tax dollars fund the small market rider which is another discussion) while these trains will apparently forever be funded by the taxpayer/consumer.
I’ll take the private sector approach vs indefinite taxes………
A Realist
June 27th, 2012
11:37 am
Kyle,
No Axe here… but statistics is my field of expertise – and you are comparing apples and oranges on price, and then publishing an invalid conclusion.
But since I was one of those nerds that took all the math and stats in grad school, and then did that stuff for a living, so what do I know?
JDW
June 27th, 2012
11:39 am
@Kyle…”I’m simply asking: Would the typical passenger be likely to choose rail or air (or auto), based on the price and travel time of each? If not, none of the other analysis really matters.”
While your statement is true your analysis falls short. If I wanted to go on a weekend trip leaving on Friday July 6th and returning on Tuesday the 9th best Delta rates are:
Birmingham $467…Advantage Train
Jax $263…Tossup
Louisville $677…Advantage Train
If I had a business trip that required travel starting on Monday July 9 and returning on Thursday the 12:
Birmingham $477…Advantage Train
Jax $307…Tossup
Louisville $829…Advantage Train
The other bit your analysis leaves out is time of day considerations. The airfares are lowest possible. If say I had to be home by 6:00 on the Thursday and on the ground by 10:00 when I left…
Birmingham $477…Advantage Train
Jax $432…Advantage Train
Louisville $918…Advantage Train
Seems to me using your criteria (and todays prices…2020-2040 prices will be higher) train wins most times…as it does where it has already been proven.
Having done both a lot the other factor you overlook is comfort…you can get lots more work or anything else done on the train from London to Paris (or Atlanta to Jacksonville) than via plane.
md
June 27th, 2012
11:41 am
JDW…..and you are assuming that trains will not also have flexible fares that may be higher without advance purchase……
BossDaley
June 27th, 2012
11:41 am
When did Americans become so chickens**t about spending money to invest in our infrastructure?
Take a deep breath, and listen very carefully. Everything. Costs. Money.
Jefferson
June 27th, 2012
11:44 am
Think ahead, that’s what you build for.
Bob
June 27th, 2012
11:46 am
Rail works great in places with good public transit systems and where big cities are close to each other and where the population density is relatively high. The low population density of the Southeast combined with inadequate public transit makes rail travel expensive and inefficient. Why can’t we accept that the automobiles (cars/trucks/buses) are the most flexible and low cost mode of travel for our region? Why can’t we understand that we are not like the Northeast where cities are close together making rail travel more practical? Why don’t we understand that bus systems running on compressed natural gas are far more cost efficient than rail right now?
A Realist
June 27th, 2012
11:47 am
md,
A good point, but unfortunately there is another item in play here.
Railroads (generally) own the right of way. AMTRAK is a government entity (sort of) traveling on private right-of way.
Roads are publicly owned. Automobiles/trucks that travel on them are privately owned. So you have private modes of transport riding on a government provided medium.
Next: Air travel…. The air is controlled and regulated by, you guessed it, the government. Private companies and individuals privately buy the vehicles (planes) and travel on that government provided medium – just like roads!
Because of this, you really can’t compare public vs private with rail/highway/air since the latter two are government provided systems of transportation, and rail is private… and the individual vehicles (AMTRAK) on rail are government provided, and on roads/air they are privately provided.
Now if the government would provide a high speed rail system, and then allow private companies to run the trains….. that might allow a valid comparison.
yuzeyurbrane
June 27th, 2012
11:47 am
I love trains. And they make sense some places like Northeast Corridor. But, regrettably, I must agree with the key points of Kyle’s analysis.
Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!
June 27th, 2012
11:54 am
“Would you anti Europe yokels like to tell me what area you prefer since you hate this great Democracy, longtime war ally and greatest trading partner?”
An America before liberal policies ruined it?
Jefferson
June 27th, 2012
12:02 pm
Sounds like grumpy old people.
JDW
June 27th, 2012
12:05 pm
@MD…”JDW…..and you are assuming that trains will not also have flexible fares that may be higher without advance purchase……”
Train fares used were at the highest end of the range. I am also working off substantial proven history…rail works in short to mid haul routes where there is sufficient travel to support them, that’s the real key.
JDW
June 27th, 2012
12:06 pm
@Tiberuis…”An America before liberal policies ruined it?”
Still living in the 1850’s I see.
Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!
June 27th, 2012
12:10 pm
Actually, I live in the real world, JDW (unlike you), I merely yearn for what were much better days for this nation.
Dusty
June 27th, 2012
12:16 pm
I love trains too. More fun. Look out the window at the passing jigsaw landscape. Relax and enjoy.
Then comes the economy! Trains are too expensive for fun. Kyle shows us that “economy” does not ride with rail. I commend his thorough approach. Throw in a few jokes and it will be wonderful!
Airlines? Not “economical” either.
Ah ha..cheap! Ride Greyhound! You’ll share the ride with people you never shared with before! The scenery is just as good and the seats aren’t too bad. I once rode across the USA on Greyhound and it was fun. From the seats surrounding us (my daughter went too) we had a college student, a Haitian refugee (No English), a retired colonel’s wife, and a few other interesting people. I brought a big box of snacks and we made merry.
Oh, I know. You are talking business here. Workers and erstwhile residents who must travel each day to work etc. Do what is best for you. But best is not raising taxes to solve every problem.
Economize! Cut costs! Think twice! Treat politicians like they work for YOU. And if worse comes to worse on tranportation…work at HOME or retire!.
Aquagirl
June 27th, 2012
12:19 pm
the airlines are funded by the market through the private sector (except where our tax dollars fund the small market rider which is another discussion)
Apparently md has never heard of the FAA, the Federal Air Transportation Stabilization Board, airport financing, Air Marshals, federal subsidies for airline pensions, tax exemptions for fuel…..well, I could go on, but since the LALALA WUT SUBSIDIES? will continue, it’s pointless.
If your worldview depends on airlines = good, rail = bad, there’s no place for logic or math. Only tender fee-fees.
AmVet
June 27th, 2012
12:27 pm
“and, by the way, enjoy your car.”
Agreed.
And for all of you sad sacks in Johns Creek, Duluth, Suwanee, Cumming, Kennesaw, Woodstock,etc, enjoy the 500 hours or more a year that you spend in that wonderful stop and go traffic every single working day of you lives.
I guess listening to the idiots on talk radio makes it all worthwhile!
Dusty
June 27th, 2012
12:31 pm
Aquagirl, 12:19
Come on. Don’t be so fussy. Did you have sardines for lunch or something?
So government controls the airlines and furnishes the PASSENGERS who pay for the sudsidies and the ride which are managed by big business.. Right?
It’s a balance, babee! One cannot do without the other.
carlosgvv
June 27th, 2012
12:32 pm
Kyle, for once, I agree with you. What works for Europe may not work here.
Dusty
June 27th, 2012
12:34 pm
And now comes AMVET while working at TacoBell in Doraville. He has no problem with transportation. Whatsa matter wid everbody when AmVet knows all??
JDW
June 27th, 2012
12:36 pm
@Tiberuis..”Actually, I live in the real world, JDW (unlike you), I merely yearn for what were much better days for this nation.”
And therein lies your true problem. The “Good Old Days” never existed and never will. It’s up to us to live today and plan for the future…not the past.
Don’t believe me, of course not…check out the search for the “Good Old Days”
http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/tue-january-5-2010/even-better-than-the-real-thing
Dan
June 27th, 2012
12:44 pm
All you need to understand in order to realize while rail is not feasible in the US is population density. Europe has it and the US does not. Population density brings efficiencies for transportation at the rail destinations, taxis busess etc as well as a larger tax base per mile of track and it provides negative motivation i.e expensive parking, or no parking. It really is simple economics and has zero to do with good intentions, ecology or awareness
Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!
June 27th, 2012
12:44 pm
“The “Good Old Days” never existed and never will.”
Denial from liberals is the standard operating procedure for discussion these days.
Thanks for confirming that.
Dusty
June 27th, 2012
12:47 pm
Phew what a day! It seems that poor JDW never had a good day in his life and you better believe it or he will cram it down your throat! Yes sir. Good days are an annoying anachronism and you can ride your train or car right into you know where…. says our happy blogger.
LIberals are really grouchy these days. I tell you. I guess they did not get invited to the Varsity to share a Big Orange with the Big O while he was in Atlanta. Boohooo…..life isn’t fair!
Road Scholar
June 27th, 2012
12:54 pm
Kyle: there was a rep from the German government on tv that stated that in 2000, Germany made a goal of clean, renewable energy use to be 20% of their energy expenditure by the year 2010. Well in 2012 they made their goal! So much for all the whining by Americans that it can’t be done!
Road Scholar
June 27th, 2012
12:57 pm
“What works for Europe may not work here.” Perhaps due to all the whining. If we set a national goal, and people pulled together to achieve it, then…. But we spend all our time insulting the other side and saying “no”. I wonder if we will get anything done?
Dusty
June 27th, 2012
1:00 pm
Road Scholar, 12:54
Why don’t you tell us how the Germans did it? If they did it in twelve years, we should be able to do it in six. (See! Good ol’ American optimism!)
Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!
June 27th, 2012
1:02 pm
“Kyle: there was a rep from the German government on tv that stated that in 2000, Germany made a goal of clean, renewable energy use to be 20% of their energy expenditure by the year 2010. Well in 2012 they made their goal!”
Well, considering their megawatt usage is approximately 14% of ours, bully for them!
In case you didn’t know, there is a huge difference in cost and scale. Add to that, artificially propping up the rest of the world’s economy and security for the ungrateful b@st@rds does take it’s toll on our own resources.
tiredofIT
June 27th, 2012
1:09 pm
“Actually, I live in the real world, JDW (unlike you), I merely yearn for what were much better days for this nation.”
You mean when we had a middle class making a respectable salary and tax rates on over a million dollars of income were much higher that today’s?
Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!
June 27th, 2012
1:12 pm
tiredofIT, unlike you, who yearn for the days when people’s hard-earned money was taken by the government in record level, my yearning goes towards the days when I had much more freedom to live my life without constant government interference.
If you want to see a resurgence in the middle class, get rid of most government operations and programs. They just drag the majority of people down to their level, not allow them to achieve a higher one.
Will the last Democrat in Georgia please turn off the lights?.....
June 27th, 2012
1:16 pm
Dusty
June 27th, 2012
12:16 pm
{{”But best is not raising taxes to solve every problem.”}}
I agree. Taxes cannot be raised forever and ever and ever to solve every problem as the users of a certain service or infrastructure are going to have to start bearing most, if not all, of the true costs that is actually required to provide said service or infrastructure.
We can build-up our transportation infrastructure, it’s just that those who use each major piece of that transportation infrastructure are the ones who should be expected to fund the costs of constructing, operating, maintaining and expanding it, not the taxpayers as a whole who are pretty much tapped-out from an already high-enough tax burden.
Fund transportation improvements with USER FEES, NOT never-ending tax increases.
Mike Sanders
June 27th, 2012
1:18 pm
I read years ago the statement that NO railroad in the world has ever made money carrying passengers. High speed is even worse, fenced road bed, highway overpasses, and just buying all that land. A mile of railroad get you a mile of travel, a mile of runway get you travel to anywhere!
carlosgvv
June 27th, 2012
1:22 pm
JDW – 12:36
Twenty years from now, when global warming is running amok and conservatives have succeeded in ruining our country , 2012 will definitely be “the good old days”.
Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!
June 27th, 2012
1:24 pm
“Twenty years from now, when global warming is running amok”
You mean the global warming that the most ardent supporter recently said was overstated, carlos?
That global warming?
tiredofIT
June 27th, 2012
1:26 pm
Tiberius – by your initial comment that is the time I thought you were referring too. What time were you referring too?
No artificial flavors
June 27th, 2012
1:31 pm
Re: most of the comments here: Way to aim high Georgia! Lots of complaing, no solutions. Like it or not this region is still growing. Building more lane miles is not smart planning. Too bad we don’t have an Eisenhower for the 21st century and a population that thinks big and long-term. Remember, if we Georgians can’t solve our transporation problems in another decade or so I’m sure the federal overlords would be ready to tell us what to do.
Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!
June 27th, 2012
1:32 pm
No, tiredofIT, you were referring to ax rates and how much this government can pry from free people’s hands.
The one thing you have NEVER cared about is the size of government (unless it is bigger) or the freedom of individuals to do what is best for themselves.
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
June 27th, 2012
1:33 pm
Convenience is the biggest thing along with cost for using a car. You have to load the car and drive to the train station or the airport, pay to park, carry your bags inside, and pay the ransom to get it on your flight or train. For short distances it is so much more convenient to just keep driving and handle the luggage once, instead of two or three more times.
I mean really, how many people are going to fly/train to Bham, Savannah, Jacksonville, or Nashville and rent a car? Government always making plans for what they hope you will do, rather than accepting the reality that people are always going to do whatever is the easiest.
iggy
June 27th, 2012
1:35 pm
Face it. Living in a metropolitan area comes with congestion. The only way to resolve these congestion issues is to move to rural areas or a massive metro area population decrease.
Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!
June 27th, 2012
1:37 pm
That’s because government isn’t looking for easy or efficient, Rafe.
Just control.
That is their sole purpose for existing.
No artificial flavors
June 27th, 2012
1:38 pm
Ever heard of a cab? I use them in every city i fly/train to.
iggy
June 27th, 2012
1:38 pm
Global warming? That sounds like something Al Goron woudld say. LMAO…what a crock.
Rail fan
June 27th, 2012
1:42 pm
Kyle “Would the typical passenger be likely to choose rail or air (or auto), based on the price and travel time of each?”
In a highly congested future, I think the answer will increasingly be “yes”. So “buy” the optionality NOW by acquiring ALL the rights of way, build the most sensible lines (Birmingham), defer the construction of the rest until it makes great sense.
Rail fan
June 27th, 2012
1:45 pm
If someone told you Atlanta was going to be 10 million people, Charlotte will be 5 million, and Nashville 5 million, and Jacksonville a city of 4 million, people might start to think about this differently. You’ve got critical masses there, and the airports and roads can’t handle all the volume.
Or do we want to just accept third rate, under-scaled, infrastructure?
JDW
June 27th, 2012
1:46 pm
@Tiberuis and Dusty…you guys keep on living in the past and fighting for days that never were. The rest of us will live today and drag you kicking and screaming into tomorrow.
Should you guys decide to educate yourself a bit here is a nice addition for your book shelf…
http://www.amazon.com/Good-Old-Days-They-Were-Terrible/dp/0394709411
Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!
June 27th, 2012
1:47 pm
“Or do we want to just accept third rate, under-scaled, infrastructure?”
Why not? We voted in a third-rate, under-scaled President in 2008 . . .
JDW
June 27th, 2012
1:48 pm
@Rail Fan…”Or do we want to just accept third rate, under-scaled, infrastructure?”
I see you have followed politics around here for the last 10 years. Most of these people are too busy looking for the “Good Old Days” to notice the roads are beginning to resemble cow paths.