2012 Tuesday: After the Obamacare ruling
The Supreme Court is due to rule on the constitutionality of the individual mandate in Obamacare before the end of the month. If the mandate stands, the rest of the law will, too. If it falls, however, there will also be the question of how much of the rest of the law must go with it — and, of course, what to do next.
Along the way, the issue will have an impact on the re-election chances of the man for whom the law was nicknamed. But what kind of impact, and how much?
Up to a point, I think the results have been baked into existing opinion about President Obama and Mitt Romney. The law’s supporters are largely on Obama’s side, and most of its critics are on Romney’s side. There may be some crossover voting for Obama by independents who dislike the law, and vice versa, but if so they’ll be making their decisions for reasons beyond Obamacare — which means the court’s ruling is unlikely to sway them. There may be some change in enthusiasm, but I wouldn’t expect it to be very great. And, given the many possible outcomes, it’s best to wait until we have a ruling to hash out how it might affect voters’ moods.
I said only “up to a point,” however, because I think there’s potential for significant movement depending on how the candidates and their campaigns react to the news.
I think it would be foolish (not to mention churlish) for the Obama campaign to try to blame and paint the Supreme Court as yet another external force arrayed against it. First, rulings issued by the court as recently as yesterday proved that there is no hard ideological schism among the justices. The three 5-4 rulings unveiled Monday included majorities of 1) Sonia Sotomayor, Clarence Thomas, Antonin Scalia, Elena Kagan and Anthony Kennedy; 2) Kennedy, Thomas, Samuel Alito, John Roberts and Stephen Breyer; and 3) Alito, Kennedy, Roberts, Scalia and Thomas. In a fourth case that broke 8-1, only Sotomayor dissented. All nine justices found themselves in a majority at least once in these four cases, while only Kennedy and Thomas were in the majority all four times. That’s hardly the picture of a rigidly divided bench.
Second, public opinion falls sharply on the side of believing the mandate is unconstitutional. In a poll taken in February, a month before the court heard oral arguments in the Obamacare case, Gallup found 72 percent of all respondents thought the mandate violated the Constitution, including majorities of both Democrats (56 percent) and those who think the law is “a good thing” (54 percent). More recently, a CBS News/New York Times poll found two-thirds of respondents wanted the court to throw out at least the mandate, including a plurality of Democrats (48 percent).
So, trying to curry favor with voters by castigating the court would be a strategy that ignores public sentiment — not to mention striking yet another blow to Obama’s self-proclaimed desire to be a unifying figure.
As for Romney, he should expect a great deal of media attention to focus on congressional Republicans’ response. No prizes for guessing whether the press will portray the House GOP or Senate Democrats as the main obstacle to a legislative solution should all or part of the law be overturned.
Rather than trying to herd congressional cats as a mere candidate, however, Romney would be well-advised to keep his focus on what he can control — namely, what he would do to remedy the situation if voters give him that opportunity.
This is one way in which his choice of a running mate could materially affect his election prospects, and it’s one of the reasons I think Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal should be at the top of his short list. Before being elected governor, Jindal served as both the head of Louisiana’s Department of Health and Hospitals — with responsibility for the state’s Medicaid program — and, federally, as a top adviser to the secretary for Health and Human Services. If any potential running mate has the experience and knowledge to help a President Romney devise a sensible solution for health policy, it’s Jindal. (He’d also be a tremendous asset to the campaign when it comes to energy policy and could speak first-hand about how the Obama administration botched the response to the BP oil spill.)
Expect any post-ruling bounce for Obama or Romney to be short-lived until voters have a chance to assess what each man would do going forward. Then, the ruling could have a significant effect on the election.
– By Kyle Wingfield
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231 comments Add your comment
DawgDad
June 19th, 2012
3:04 pm
“the SAME CITIZENS that finance healthcare on a national level also do so on a state level”
The Federal Government can borrow, endlessly, or print money. Which is exactly what will happen, in addition to the rationing, lower quality care, and massive corruption.
Middle of the Road
June 19th, 2012
3:15 pm
Tiberius. Please don’t equate religion with morality. There are both good and bad religions, churches, clergy and congregations. Don’t forget that Nazi Germany was predominantly Protestant and Catholic.
Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!
June 19th, 2012
3:19 pm
I don’t, Middle of the Road, but since both posters decided to go down the religious-based route, I wanted to point out that one man’s morality is another man’s sin.
The LAST thing we want government to embark on is a policy based on some nebulous idea of “morality”, given that most of those ideas are rooted in a particular religion.
DebbieDoRight - A Do Right Woman
June 19th, 2012
3:28 pm
Finn: Republicans don’t cram, Debbie, they drug you first with the witless Faux News and then slide it down while you are distracted
Eww Finn — that sounds like date rape!
Peter Currie
June 19th, 2012
3:31 pm
Tiberius,
I think you’re confusing “religion” with “morality.”
Goodbye, all. Got important things to do. Enjoy your hatefest.
Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!
June 19th, 2012
3:33 pm
I don’t hate, Peter.
But in the immortal words of Mr. T, “I pity da fool!”
DebbieDoRight - A Do Right Woman
June 19th, 2012
3:34 pm
tiberius: Do you actually READ the comments posted, Debbie, or do you just post indiscriminately to be heard? I suggest you re-read the posts about “opposition votes” again.
IDK — I mean what part of “EVERY Republican voted against HCA as did some Dems”, (in answer to your There were actually opposition votes to go into Iraq – not so on health care reform @ 2:35).
I thought it was a pretty simple answer, but…who knows……..
Don't Tread
June 19th, 2012
3:43 pm
“republican initiatives added”…Really?
0bama/Pelosi/Reid had to twist THEIR OWN party members’ arms to get it passed, including the “Cornhusker Kickback” and an executive order promising that funds would not be used for abortions (easily reversed in the future, should it be upheld). Then there was the “reconciliation” gimmick they had to employ for final passage.
Republicans had to “sit in the back”…remember that little phrase? And you say other people can’t remember history.
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
June 19th, 2012
3:47 pm
had to twist THEIR OWN party members’ arms to get it passed
Yeah, that’s called negotiation. That’s how things get done.
Oh, silly me. You Cons have even forgotten what the word “compromise” really means, haven’t you?
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
June 19th, 2012
3:54 pm
This 2012-2013 school year, thanks to a bill pushed through by governor Bobby Jindal, thousands of students in Louisiana will receive state voucher money, transferred from public school funding, to attend private religious schools, some of which teach from a Christian curriculum that suggests the Loch Ness Monster disproves evolution and states that the alleged creature, which has never been demonstrated to even exist, has been tracked by submarine and is probably a plesiosaur. The curriculum also claims that a Japanese fishing boat caught a dinosaur.
alternet.org
Don't Tread
June 19th, 2012
3:56 pm
“You Cons have even forgotten what the word “compromise” really means, haven’t you?”
“Compromise” with liberals usually means liberals won’t hold their end of the deal. I remember a “compromise” that involved raising taxes and cutting spending…taxes got raised but spending kept right on going.
I’m sure the executive order “compromise” will be negated just as quickly.
Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!
June 19th, 2012
4:00 pm
To simplify it, Debbie, there were NO Republican votes to pass health care reform – a Democrat administration initiative, yet there were Democrat votes to go into Iraq in a Republican administration initiative.
Get it now?
That is why your initial response was, and remains, flawed.
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
June 19th, 2012
4:00 pm
Just WOW:
A Beka Book and Bob Jones University Press textbooks say the following:
• Only ten percent of Africans can read or write, because Christian mission schools have been shut down by communists.
• “the [Ku Klux] Klan in some areas of the country tried to be a means of reform, fighting the decline in morality and using the symbol of the cross… In some communities it achieved a certain respectability as it worked with politicians.”
• “God used the ‘Trail of Tears’ to bring many Indians to Christ.”
• It “cannot be shown scientifically that that man-made pollutants will one day drastically reduce the depth of the atmosphere’s ozone layer.”
• “God has provided certain ‘checks and balances’ in creation to prevent many of the global upsets that have been predicted by environmentalists.”
• the Great Depression was exaggerated by propagandists, including John Steinbeck, to advance a socialist agenda.
• “Unions have always been plagued by socialists and anarchists who use laborers to destroy the free-enterprise system that hardworking Americans have created.”
• Bill Clinton’s 1992 presidential win was due to an imaginary economic crisis created by the media.
• “The greatest struggle of all time, the Battle of Armageddon, will occur in the Middle East when Christ returns to set up his kingdom on earth.”
as reported in alternet.org
DebbieDoRight - A Do Right Woman
June 19th, 2012
4:18 pm
Republicans had to “sit in the back”…remember that little phrase? And you say other people can’t remember history.
You remember bitter revisionist history. I don’t blame you though. I usually listen to Boortz, mainly because sometimes i find him funny and he keeps me awake during some very boring working hours); anyway here lately ALL bortz talks about is Obama, Obama, OBAMA, O-B-A-M-A…. constantly day after day after day after day.
And in his diatribe, all he does is spew hateful rhetoric, after hateful rhetoric. It’s like he’s indoctrinating his audience into a hate filled inclusionary rage aimed towards one man. It’s frightening and it smacks of brain washing.
Now, anyone with a computer and a search engine can find out that 98% of everything he says is a distorted untruth, (wth only 2% being factual); yet his audience REFUSES to find the truth for themselves.
They just want to be fed lie after lie after lie. He whips them up into this hate filled frenzy that’s gonna explode one day. I’m just waiting for a listener to go out and cause a major riot, killing innocent people in the process, get jailed, get a good lawyer, and name Boortz as his co-defendant. It’s only a matter of time.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Unexpectedly Revised Downward - Again)
June 19th, 2012
4:23 pm
After the Obozocare Ruling…Americans will have some of their liberty returned to them after Obozo’s failed power grab.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Unexpectedly Revised Downward - Again)
June 19th, 2012
4:25 pm
DebbieDoRight: 98% of everything [Boortz] says is a distorted untruth
———
Should be easy for you to cite one or two examples, then.
Scott Thrower
June 19th, 2012
4:25 pm
If any or all of Obamacare gets tossed, he will inevitably find a way to blame George W. Bush.
DebbieDoRight - A Do Right Woman
June 19th, 2012
4:27 pm
“God used the ‘Trail of Tears’ to bring many Indians to Christ.”
• It “cannot be shown scientifically that that man-made pollutants will one day drastically reduce the depth of the atmosphere’s ozone layer.”
• “God has provided certain ‘checks and balances’ in creation to prevent many of the global upsets that have been predicted by environmentalists.”
• the Great Depression was exaggerated by propagandists, including John Steinbeck, to advance a socialist agenda.
OMG It’s just like George Orwell said in 1984 and again in Animal Farm:
And if all others accepted the lie which the Party imposed-if all records told the same tale-then the lie passed into history and became truth. ‘Who controls the past’ ran the Party slogan, ‘controls the future: who controls the present controls the past.’
Animal Farm:
“ALL ANIMALS ARE EQUAL, BUT SOME ARE MORE EQUAL THAN OTHERS”
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
June 19th, 2012
4:35 pm
Tiberius stole my thunder, there is no morals in government. If there were, things like the soldier killed in Little Rock by a Muslim terrorist, would have received benefits for being killed in action, instead of having the government throw his case to the state courts and deny him benefits. Agent Brian Terry’s family would have been treated fairly and we would know how and why he was killed.
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
June 19th, 2012
4:37 pm
There are no morals in government vs there is no morals. The family of the soldier killed would have received benefits.
Schools in Mayberry were not very at teaching English or typing.
DebbieDoRight - A Do Right Woman
June 19th, 2012
4:42 pm
LBB – Obama’s cabinet was the reason we got stuck with Solyndra in the first place
NOT FACTUAL
the loan guarantee program that awarded half a billion dollars in guarantees to Solyndra “was supported by President Bush.” The program was created on Bush’s watch by a law he signed and promoted. The program grew under the Obama administration, which ultimately awarded Solyndra’s loan guarantee under a new section of the law created by the stimulus. The Bush administration, though, promoted the loan guarantee program, and Bush himself touted it on his way out of office. There’s also evidence his administration specifically prioritized Solyndra’s project
.
Don't Tread
June 19th, 2012
4:46 pm
“You remember bitter revisionist history”…You really can’t make this stuff up.
The “you gotta ride in the back” comment was part of one of your Dear Leader’s speeches (right before the butt-whooping you people got in 2010). But I don’t expect you to remember that little piece of history either. (Please, continue on with the Boortz deflection.)
I suppose those midterm election losses were “revisionist history”, too.
(They were actually a great day for freedom, as your people lost their monopoly on power.)
killerj
June 19th, 2012
4:54 pm
What an understatement about dividing the country,tell me again about the voting when he was elected? Holy sheep sh-t batman.
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
June 19th, 2012
4:58 pm
Finn you and Debbie find your truth in places not explored by many, that is for sure.
As far as those religious schools, you don’t have to eat the whole fish to benefit. Lots of people of different faiths choose parochial schools over the government schools. The government schools are so bad and teach so much government dependence, that I would take one of those religious schools for my kids. I had rather try to dispossess them of few squirrelly religious doctrines, than try to correct most everything they learned at school, and teach them what they didn’t learn.
I would like to see one of those text books from Bob Jones and Louisiana, sounds like some the USA subsidizes for the Arabs, where they lie about and blame Jews for everything under the sun. Kinda like “Oblamer blames GWB for sins of the world treatment”.
Have you seen one or are you just quoting some kook website? Do you have any titles, authors?
JohnnyReb
June 19th, 2012
4:59 pm
I get called out by the Left constantly wanting a link or a backup to prove this or that.
Debbie, you need to post something to back up your 4:42. I think it came to you in a dream.
What I have heard is the Bush Administration passed the Solyndra loan to Obama with a recommendation not to approve.
md
June 19th, 2012
5:02 pm
“I don’t know or don’t care why she feels that way. She still VOTED for it. If she was so morally opopsed, she would’ve voted AGAINST it. Period”
Deb…..brush up on that foggy history….she DID vote against it, because the dems betrayed her. The betrayal occurred when she allowed the bill to get out of committee on the promise (by the dems) that they would allow amendments, etc…….they didn’t. They stuck it to her when she was trying to play fair.
carlosgvv
June 19th, 2012
5:02 pm
md – 12″32
You know what it means but it makes no sense? THAT makes no sense.
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
June 19th, 2012
5:03 pm
Debbie,
I know you didn’t do it deliberately (hah), but you do know that after Bush and company looked at Solyndra they found the loan unwise, in that it likely would not be repaid because the company was very weak financially. They decided not to make the loan.
Oblamer reconsidered, as Solyndra would be a highlight for his new green energy program. He ordered the Energy Dept to look at it again, since Bush adm had turned them down. He later had them make the loan over protests from some in the chain. Now, the whole story, has been told.
Junior Samples
June 19th, 2012
5:04 pm
Kyle….
“the Obama administration botched the response to the BP oil spill”
Seriously? And a republican administration would do what? Drill more?
“Heckuva job, BP?”
Unless by “botched” you mean they didn’t shut down ALL DRILLING from BP, investigate all third parties involved, allow scientists outside the oil industry to decide what’s best for the gulf region, etc…
You mean those kind of things?
md
June 19th, 2012
5:04 pm
St Peter,
You might want to brush up on the definitions of “can’t” and “won’t”……I’d hazard a guess that Jesus wanted us all to help out the cant’s (which I think most everybody agrees we should), but I’d also hazard a guess that he’d admonish the wont’s and tell them to buck up to their societal responsibilities……..it is after all a two way street.
And I’m a heathen by the way……….
Don't Tread
June 19th, 2012
5:05 pm
Maybe Debbie hasn’t read Obama Administration Offers $535 Million Loan Guarantee to Solyndra, Inc. (Dated March 20, 2009) Bush left office in January, 2009.
But it’s his fault anyway.
JohnnyReb
June 19th, 2012
5:07 pm
Here’s a link to an ABC news report on the Bush administration two weeks before Obama took office recommending the loan be shelved.
http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/solyndra-loan-now-treasury-launching-investigation/story?id=14521917&page=2
md
June 19th, 2012
5:12 pm
“You know what it means but it makes no sense? THAT makes no sense.”
Go read it again…..if there are 4 and 4 with one swing vote, there can not be a majority of either cons or libs…….but as I said, we know what you meant. Which should be that either ALL cons or libs vote in similar fashion.
The Fresh Prince of Bill Ayers
June 19th, 2012
5:17 pm
And in his diatribe, all he does is spew hateful rhetoric, after hateful rhetoric. It’s like he’s indoctrinating his audience into a hate filled inclusionary rage aimed towards one man. It’s frightening and it smacks of brain washing.
Debbie, a majority of Americans view the individual mandate as against the constitution. Yet your Emperor O’blamer claims most Americans want O’blamer care. Who’s the brain-washer now??
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
June 19th, 2012
5:21 pm
DebbieDoRight, you crashed and burned with that one.
Is that all ya got?
The Fresh Prince of Bill Ayers
June 19th, 2012
5:22 pm
Really Debbie, Solyndra?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-28/solyndra-s-733-million-plant-had-whistling-robots-spa-showers.html
Amazing what campaign contributions and lobbying can do in this administration. And would you care to talk about the protection of executive bonuses after the bankruptcy?
The Fresh Prince of Bill Ayers
June 19th, 2012
5:24 pm
Debbie, there’s been a recall on your voter registration card. Re-apply, you might get to vote in 2016…
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
June 19th, 2012
5:26 pm
And surely if it was Our President Bush who started the loan program that led to Obozo’s Solyndra disaster, there must be many examples of Bush-funded businesses that went belly up, right? After all, Obozo won a Nobel prize and is the smartest man alive.
Funny that all the failures are on Obozo’s watch.
Maybe because his loans went to campaign donors and bundlers.
DebbieDoRight - A Do Right Woman
June 19th, 2012
5:29 pm
Gotta go to a meeting but for all the “Debbie You are CRAZZZYY” folks, here’s the link where I got my information regarding Solyndra. And remember, I stated that the things Boortz said about Solyndra was not truly factual — I didn’t say it was an out and out LIE, (although he DOES do that sometimes too).
click down to the “Our RUling” part, (last paragraph); then tell me I’m making this stuff up OR that I changed one word of the conclusion.
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2011/nov/17/david-plouffe/solyndra-loan-george-w-bush-david-plouffe/
Don't Tread
June 19th, 2012
5:31 pm
David Plouffe says so? Really? Gosh, it must be fact then! (David Plouffe is a senior adviser to President Barack Obama)
You go ahead and head on out to that DNC meeting.
DebbieDoRight - A Do Right Woman
June 19th, 2012
5:33 pm
Here’s one for the road (dont thank me — I do this outta love…)
The director of the Energy Department’s loan programs under former President George W. Bush said he likely would have backed the controversial restructuring of the now-bankrupt solar company Solyndra’s federal loan package, which has become a focal point for Republicans attacking the Obama administration’s handling of the financing.
http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/185153-bush-era-loan-chief-probably-would-have-made-the-same-decision-on-solyndra
Gotta go! Later Gators.
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
June 19th, 2012
5:35 pm
President Barack Obama’s campaign wants to turn Mitt Romney into the candidate of old, straight, white men.
With 5 more months to go and absolutely no chance of obozo running on his sorry record, how much more infantile will he get?
DebbieDoRight - A Do Right Woman
June 19th, 2012
5:36 pm
David Plouffe says so? Really? Gosh, it must be fact then! (David Plouffe is a senior adviser to President Barack Obama
Politifact found it to be FACTUAL. Are you saying that Politicfact is BIASED in its assumptions? Or are you saying you won’t blieve it because of “____________________” (insert excuse here).
Honestly folks, the only way you believe anything is if it’s from the mouth of a talking republican puppet?
Middle of the Road
June 19th, 2012
5:39 pm
Risking the wrath of all the vitriolic diatribe, what’s strange about the polls regarding Obamacare is that while the overall program is losing popularity, the individual parts are not. Real Clear Politics recently conducted a poll and found out that people favor the following:
Insurance companies should spend more money on health care than on administrative costs.
People should not be denied health insurance because of an illness.
The government should lower health care costs to participants.
The government should help lower class people obtain health care.
Everyone should have access to health care.
The government should not force people to buy health insurance.
All but the last soundbite would indicate a positive feeling toward the program. Which I believe indicates that many people just don’t know what’s actually in Obamacare. Or alternatively, one could conclude that the individual mandate is a deal breaker.
Don Abernethy
June 19th, 2012
5:40 pm
NOBAMA
saywhat?
June 19th, 2012
5:41 pm
“Honestly folks, the only way you believe anything is if it’s from the mouth of a talking republican puppet?”
________________________________________________________________________________
DIND! DING! DING! We have a winner!
Dusty
June 19th, 2012
5:42 pm
Well, today is sorta interesting. ObamaCare! I once met one person who thought they might like to have their medical bills paid. Free doctors!!! Free hospitals! Free meds! Yayyyy That’s what they think!! Poor babies!
And Debbie, our lawyer of all things, is blazing away at the evil measures take by Republicans. She doesn’t say much about Iraq(only gently) since her husband was there fighting for us most of the time. Otherwise it is those crazeeee Republicans.
I have also found out that Obama did not waste all that money on energy stuff ’cause BUSH DID IT! Wouldn’t ya know???
And Finn! my goodness, over in Louisiana reading all the screwed up science books in so called “religious” school so he can be a loyal liberal of full investigation against those darn religious schools. Ruining our children!!! Every one of ‘em! Of course nobody has to go to those schools if they don’t want to attend.
Guess I will just have to wait on the Supreme Court and then set up battle stations. Other than that, who is going to pitch for the BRAVES tonight? Now that has me worried!
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
June 19th, 2012
5:43 pm
David Plouffe=Bagdad Bob= Jay the Carney Barker
md
June 19th, 2012
5:48 pm
Obamacare is a giant entitlement program that will wreck havoc on the country if passed…..that is all one needs to know.
We are about to have our backs to the wall on SS, Medicare, and Medicaid and adding another entitlement program with subsidies just makes no sense.
Then there is that little matter of millions added to annual administrative costs to the States and poof, there goes more cuts to education. The balanced budget States will have no choice but to cut and then hang on to see if they also have to bail out the too big to fail non-balancing States like CA……..one best hope the SC strikes it down.
Rafe Hollister, suffering through Oblamer's ineptocracy
June 19th, 2012
5:49 pm
Dusty
Watch every day, Finn, just kinda disappears around 5. I’m just guessing, his boss doesn’t know he is blogging all day. Never hear from him after 5 or on weekends. He may be a PAID blogger, maybe not by the Dems, but by an unsuspecting employer.