2012 Tuesday: Wisconsin recall won’t tell us too much about November
All eyes will be on Wisconsin tonight as the results of that state’s gubernatorial recall election are tabulated. Every major poll since March has Gov. Scott Walker in front, most of them by more than the poll’s margin of error. Among recent polls, he leads by an average of 6.7 percentage points. There has been a last-minute infusion of money by Walker’s labor-union opponents, which may help with get-out-the-vote efforts. That may narrow the final margin and help to dampen the prospects for labor-union reforms in other states, and that just might be their only goal. In any case, it would be very surprising at this point if he were not able to hang on and finish his first term as governor.
Should Walker win, the commentary will immediately turn to the potential impact on Mitt Romney’s chances of pulling off a Badger State upset against President Obama come November. I’ve alluded before to the prospect of a Walker springboard for Romney in Wisconsin. But as we’ve approached election day, I’ve begun to rethink that.
At the risk of being a spoil-sport, I don’t think tonight’s results will have that much of a bearing on the presidential election.
First, and most obviously, Romney and Obama are not Walker and Tom Barrett, the governor’s Democratic opponent in today’s recall. They are different men waging different campaigns on different key issues. Public-sector unions and their collective bargaining rights, or lack thereof, are unlikely to play any more heavily in this presidential election than in previous ones. As in past elections, the largest role for unions will be spending time and money trying to elect the Democrat. Tonight’s recall election is unlikely to change that.
Wisconsin is regarded by some analysts as a toss-up state. But if Romney is to win it, he will have to do so on his own strength or on Obama’s own weakness. If Obama loses states like Wisconsin and Iowa and Ohio, it will have much more to do with the economy and his failure to live up to his own hype than to this recall effort.
What’s more, Republicans have historically had a very tough time in Wisconsin. In the last 10 presidential elections, the GOP candidate has won Wisconsin only along the way to overwhelming landslides in 1972 (Nixon 520 electoral votes, McGovern 17), 1980 (Reagan 489, Carter 49), and 1984 (Reagan 525, Mondale 13). Democrats have won the state in the last six presidential elections by an average of 49.2 percent to 43.7 percent.
Yes, the Wisconsin GOP had a tremendous year in 2010, including Walker’s gubernatorial win and Ron Johnson’s 52-47 defeat of longtime U.S. Sen. Russ Feingold. That year’s results are the main reason the state is included in some lists of swing states. But several states have a history of being Jekyll in presidential elections and Hyde in state contests: See Georgia, for the most part, from 1972 to 2002, and West Virginia today, among others. Even a solid — i.e., 5- to 7-point — win for Walker today is unlikely to mark him as the kind of transcendent politician who can change that record. And, again, he’s not on the ballot in November.
There may be some momentum/enthusiasm to be gained tonight, but even that strikes me as fleeting. It’s unlikely to spread beyond Wisconsin with any significance — or permanence; remember, the election is still five months away. And it’s unlikely to make a difference for Wisconsin’s 10 electoral votes, for the reasons already explained. The vast amounts of pro-Walker money raised from outside the state, and the comparatively little anti-Walker money, tells us something about enthusiasm nationally. But I’m not sure it tells us much more than we could already have supposed. It’s the latest data point among many.
Finally, even a surprisingly large win by Walker won’t make me buy the whispers that he’s a dark-horse option to be Romney’s running mate.
So, today’s recall election may tell us more about the future of public-sector labor unions than it does about this November’s election. (In fact, moderate Democrat and blogger Mickey Kaus suggests tonight’s result could actually be more important than the result of the Obama-Romney contest.)
Then again, if Walker were to shock us and win by 10-12 points tonight, we may have to revisit this entire topic tomorrow.
– By Kyle Wingfield
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78 comments Add your comment
@@
June 5th, 2012
1:28 pm
And on the very same day
(Reuters) – A radical plan to slash public employee pension benefits gets voted on by the residents of Silicon Valley’s San Jose on Tuesday – a decision that could set an important precedent for many other cities, not only in California but across the nation.
The nation’s 10th-largest city is also one of the wealthiest, but over the past several years it has cut its municipal workforce by a quarter, laying off cops and firefighters, shuttering libraries and letting street repairs fall by the wayside.
The problem? Mayor Chuck Reed says it’s simple: Retiree benefit costs eat up more than a quarter of the city budget – and are growing at a double-digit rate. The solution he is pushing at the ballot box, after city council approval, would slash benefits for workers, increase employee contributions – and almost certainly prompt a precedent-setting legal challenge from the public employee unions.
They’re voting to cut pensions in San Diego too.
I hope THIS wildfire sweeps across the entire country. Enough is enough!
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
June 5th, 2012
1:35 pm
@@, it won’t be long before the private companies we work for are taking the same path.
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
June 5th, 2012
1:40 pm
Keep cutting state worker pensions and benefits and watch all the intelligent people stop going to work for our government. Pretty soon the only people willing to take state jobs will be the less desirable workers.
We should have a government that works for us then!
Then we will be glad to see the road workers or the post man sleeping under a tree during lunch – that way they aren’t screwing something up…
Have a good day all.
Don't Tread
June 5th, 2012
1:41 pm
“very wealthy individuals like the Kochs, Adelson, etc. are able to donate a great deal more money”
Don’t forget George Soros, unions, and Hollywood. But it’s ok when your side has the “very wealthy” to donate money to political campaigns, isn’t it?
I’m rooting for Walker to win in a landslide, money or no money, just to show the liberals where they can stuff it.
St Simons - we're on Island time, mon
June 5th, 2012
1:42 pm
‘Wisconsin recall won’t tell us too much ‘
here, let me put on some ‘Billie Jean’
while you moon-walk that victory dance back
td
June 5th, 2012
1:55 pm
Looks like the Dems are already whining in Wis about dirty tricks. Another move right out of the lib playbook.
http://elections.wispolitics.com/2012/06/dems-cry-foul-early-into-election-day.html
“This latest lowlife sleaze comes on the heels of countless reports from around the state of various Republican dirty tricks on behalf of Walker,” Chheda said in a statement. “For instance, reports surfaced last weekend that Walker supporters are paying homeowners to post Walker signs on their lawns.”
Cry me a freaking hand full.
Don Abernethy
June 5th, 2012
1:57 pm
NOBARRETT,NOUNIONS,NOBAMA
jake
June 5th, 2012
2:07 pm
Finn, you said, “Keep cutting state worker pensions and benefits and watch all the intelligent people stop going to work for our government. Pretty soon the only people willing to take state jobs will be the less desirable workers.”
Are you saying that all the intelligent people currently work for our government? With that opinion, you must be a government worker yourself. That also explains a lot of your other comments as well.
@@
June 5th, 2012
2:11 pm
Finn:
@@, it won’t be long before the private companies we work for are taking the same path.
They already are.
General Motors is planning to cut its pension liability relating to 118,000 retirees in a move to save the auto giant $26 billion of its $109 billion total pension obligation, according to Reuters.
And that’s AFTER we bailed ‘em out.
Halftrack
June 5th, 2012
2:25 pm
Did you see the Hannity show last night with the Polling group. It’s obvious that liberals don’t want facts they just want everyone to agree with them. We will see tonight if WI citizens are categorized / demonized like deep south states are if the voting goes against the Media bias.
Jefferson
June 5th, 2012
2:27 pm
There ain’t a nickles difference in a political union and a labor union.
ragnar danneskjold
June 5th, 2012
2:32 pm
Fair analysis, persuasive.
Jimmy
June 5th, 2012
2:34 pm
Come on, this election will obviously be a test for November, how many people will be voting for the extreme conservative Walker and the extreme liberal Obama? None. If Walker win by 6 points or more then it will for sure be a toss up in the general election
@@
June 5th, 2012
2:38 pm
Abu Yahya al-Libi, al Qaeda deputy leader, killed in US drone strike
I’m tellin’ ya…that Obama is a stone-cold killer!
His next victim? The economy.
schnirt
hryder
June 5th, 2012
2:39 pm
A landslide in either direction will most certainly tell whether the incompetent current elected resident of the White House wil probablyl be moving to a residence elsewhere or remaining to completely ruin the country in striving to establish the United States as a third world country due to his perspective which was established by being reared totally outside its home boundaries. IN THE NOVEMBER ELECTIONS, VOTE OUT ALL INCUMBENT ELECTED OFFICE HOLDERS.
@@
June 5th, 2012
2:45 pm
Did you see the Hannity show last night with the Polling group. It’s obvious that liberals don’t want facts they just want everyone to agree with them
I saw two hysterical/scorned women complaining that Walker wasn’t very nice in his approach.
JoeThePimpernel
June 5th, 2012
2:46 pm
From all the exit polling we’ve been doing, it looks like Walker is going to win by at least ten points, far beyond the reach of the Demcrat 3% margin-of-cheating.
There will be no cries of “the election was stolen” and counting of dimpled chads this time around.
HRpufnstuf
June 5th, 2012
2:49 pm
“The vast amounts of pro-Walker money raised from outside the state, and the comparatively little anti-Walker money, tells us something about enthusiasm nationally.”
Money tells me nothing about national enthusiam. It tells me a couple richy-riches (the Koch brothers for example) have deep pockets and are trying to buy this recall election for Walker.
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
June 5th, 2012
2:58 pm
No, jake, I’m not saying that all the intelligent people work for government. I’m not even saying that everyone who works for government is intelligent. What i am saying is that any intelligent people working for government will reconsider that employment option AND any prospective future employee of good intelligence who is considering working for government, will be less likely to take that path.
Kyle Wingfield
June 5th, 2012
3:07 pm
Limburger, Sil and others: There is a difference between what you’d like to see happen, and what you think will happen. I’d like to see Walker win tonight and Romney win Wisconsin in November. I do think the former will happen, but I’m not convinced it will trigger the latter.
Enthusiasm might bump up a little bit — I did discuss that in the OP. But why should any of us conservatives need a win in Wisconsin tonight to be enthusiastic about voting against Obama in November?? I just don’t see tonight’s results having that big an impact on the right’s spirits five months from now.
@@
June 5th, 2012
3:22 pm
Graeme Zielinski, spokesman for the Wisconsin Democratic Party
told the liberal Mother Jones magazine in April that “collective bargaining is not moving people.” A state Democratic strategy memo in May didn’t mention the issue in its key message points.
One Walker reform ended automatic dues deduction from worker paychecks, making it harder to keep union members.
Why would ^^^ that make it harder to keep members? HECK…they COULD voluntarily donate to the cause they believe in. Must they be forced?
hmmmm
In other words, should Walker win, it’s public sector unions that will suffer. I’m down with that. And Big Labor?
Public sector unions make up the bulk of their membership. Time for Big Labor to reform. The old mold’s been broken.
Rafe Hollister- trying to save the Choom Gang
June 5th, 2012
3:32 pm
Finn
Thanks for the info on the charges against Walker, but as I said your crook or mine. Seems both are prone to felons among their appointments. So, the election is back to small solvent government or big unionized free stuff for all government. I would vote for Walker and the smaller more efficient government and his felons against Barrett’s felons and his big government.
http://www.wisconsinreporter.com/barrett-disses-walkers-felons-but-the-mayor-has-some-too
DannyX
June 5th, 2012
4:34 pm
Omg!!!
Caller Mike is on a bus that left Detroit and is headed to Wisconsin There are 4 buses! All crammed with fraudulent Michigan voters that will vote for Barrett.
Hang in there Caller Mike. We all fear for your safety!
LOL!!!!
Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!
June 5th, 2012
5:14 pm
I think the first thing Scott Walker should do after winning the recall election is to make it tougher for recall elections to be called in Wisconsin.
What a waste of time and taxpayer money!
The threshold shouldn’t be as low as “Because we don’t like what you did”. There should be some kind of judicially-agreed upon malfeasance as we have here before you can move forward.
ragnar danneskjold
June 5th, 2012
10:43 pm
Dear Kyle, bet you are glad you added that last line to the essay! May have to revisit the meaning of the result.
Kyle Wingfield
June 6th, 2012
9:42 am
ragnar: I’m not so sure. The final margin of 7 points is undoubtedly a huge signal of support for Walker and an enormous smackdown of organized labor in the state. But just as I don’t think the Obama campaign should take much solace in the exit poll numbers that showed him beating Romney by 12 points — the only sure thing we can say about those exit poll numbers is that the top lines were very, very far off — I still am not convinced the victory translates to Romney in the fall.
Romney might win Wisconsin, but it would probably take more time and effort than is worthwhile. Imo, he’d be wiser to spend those precious resources elsewhere.
Kyle Wingfield
June 6th, 2012
10:08 am
Well, 12 points is what I heard last night on TV. Looking around this morning, it appears the margin was 7 points. Given that the exit polls initially showed a dead heat between Walker and Barrett, then were adjusted to show a 4-point Walker win — and that he won by 7 — the Obama-Romney margin might well have been within or close to the margin of error.
The many lessons from Wisconsin | Kyle Wingfield
June 6th, 2012
11:29 am
[...] stand by my comments yesterday that Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker’s victory in his recall election does not necessarily [...]