The truth about how long T-SPLOST will tax us
The T-SPLOST faces a challenging road to passage as it is. Imagine if supporters had to drum up votes for it either without the two segments of the Beltline; or without a bus/light rail line into Cobb County; or without any of the interchange improvements at I-285 and Ga. 400, I-285 and I-20 west, and I-285 and I-85 north. All while no other projects were added to the list.
Or, instead, imagine if they were asking voters to approve the same project list, with the same 1 percent sales tax for the same 10 years — while, at the same time, they were asking for another tax increase of $600 million to $850 million during the same decade.
Say hello to the T-SPLOST renewal campaign, circa 2022.
One of the hottest — and most disingenuous — aspects of the T-SPLOST debate has been the back and forth about whether the tax being put to a regional referendum in July would last only 10 years.
On the anti-tax side, some people suggest politicians will double-cross the voters and keep the tax past its promised end date, a la the extension of the toll on Ga. 400. They’re wrong. The promise to end the 400 toll once the bonds were paid off was just that: a promise by politicians, the kind of pledge that is — or should be assumed to be — made to be broken. The expiration of the T-SPLOST, on the other hand, is written into the law.
The pro-tax side assures us that voters will have the chance to reject any extension of the tax. And, as I’ve just described, they technically are correct.
But this assurance isn’t worth much when we consider the implications of passing the T-SPLOST for the first 10 years. Pass the tax in July, and we will be paying it, or another tax, for decades.
That much is clear from new, rough estimates about how much of the $6.14 billion project list would go for preliminary work, how much for construction, and how much for operation and maintenance of new transit.
The Atlanta Regional Commission has been compiling these estimates during the past few months. (Amazingly, local elected officials didn’t go into this kind of detail when approving the list of projects and their price tags.)
About a quarter of the $3.2 billion allocated to transit, $767.9 million, is estimated for these projects’ operations and maintenance for 10 years, as required by law. Because the projects would be built in timeframes that vary, they do not cover the same 10 years. But, at some point, the O&M funding would run out.
Some of the $767.9 million is for bus services that come with minimal new construction. Depending on whether all those services were renewed, and applying a modest inflation rate, we’re talking about second-decade costs of $600 million to $850 million just to keep these new projects running.
It’s extremely unlikely that we would spend $2.4 billion on new infrastructure and then shut it down after 10 years. In that respect, the T-SPLOST is very different from a special sales tax for education, after which voters could decide they’ve built enough new schools.
So we are probably left with the two unpalatable options I described at the beginning of this column: getting fewer projects with a renewed T-SPLOST, or raising other taxes to fill the gap.
The latter option is far-fetched. We’ve never raised other taxes to cover what’s become a perennial budget shortfall at MARTA. And how would the burden for projects built regionally be allocated, if not on a regional basis? (That question is another reason it would have been good to have a new regional model for transit governance before voting on the T-SPLOST.)
That leaves us with having less money from a renewed T-SPLOST to spend on new construction.
What would $600 million to $850 million buy? On this project list, we’re talking about some of the headliners:
- two segments of the Beltline (total cost: $601.9 million);
- bus or light rail into Cobb ($689 million);
- improvements at I-285 and Ga. 400 ($450 million), I-285 and I-85 north ($53 million), and I-285 and I-20 west ($149 million).
Each of those possibilities is closer to $600 million than to $850 million. And, obviously, we would be talking about forgoing different projects, such as expanding transit up I-85 north or across the top end of I-285, or building the super-arterial roads needed to pull traffic away from the interstates.
It may be that this is a choice voters in metro Atlanta are willing to make. But, so far, it’s not how the choice has been framed.
– By Kyle Wingfield
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228 comments Add your comment
Intown
May 31st, 2012
2:36 pm
I’m not a big fan of the T-SPLOST. It’s regressive, unimaginative, devoid of political courage, and has a poorly assembled project list. But, let’s face it, it’s the best our little imperfect democracy here in Georgia is going to come up with. So, I’m going to vote for it … begrudingly.
Bryan -- MARTA supporter
May 31st, 2012
2:36 pm
@ Tiberius – Banned from Bookman’s and proud of it! May 31st, 2012 12:06 pm
ATLANTA needs to stop sucking the life out the state?! Really when ATL generates most of the tax money for the state to spend on the ‘burbs and the little towns that contribute nothing?
VOTE YES!
May 31st, 2012
2:39 pm
Seriously. Last time I checked people weren’t flying in from around the world to stay at hotels and eat at restaurants during their conferences in towns like Albany or Dalton.
VOTE YES!
May 31st, 2012
2:40 pm
@ Intown. “But, let’s face it, it’s the best our little imperfect democracy here in Georgia is going to come up with.”
That might be the best thing I’ve read here all day.
AmVet
May 31st, 2012
2:44 pm
No, we just get tired of paying for freeloaders and those who dont want to pay their own way…
Who would have guessed it?
A dead red neocon b*tching about General Electric, BP, Verizon, Mattel, Honeywell, Wells Fargo and Boeing among MANY others!
Good job iggy pop!
It’s WAY past time that some of you GOPers finally woke up to the billion dollar parasites…
Bryan -- MARTA supporter
May 31st, 2012
2:46 pm
@ md May 31st, 2012 12:16 pm
So do you think there is going to be much private investment in an area that has a terrible transportation infrustructure and transit system. They won’t be making money here so they won’t be coming, or for that case staying. It won’t be until your job is gone that you’ll want to invest in things that keep the area growing.
Dusty
May 31st, 2012
2:47 pm
VOTE YES, 2:29
You asked why I assumed you did not support George W. Bush. Why?
Because….when it walks like a liberal duck, talks like a liberal duck, wants to raise taxes like a liberal duck….. I might assume it is a liberal duck.
Are you trying to drop your feathers and be a libertarian or something? Sounds like it. Not to mention the distinct smell of Democratic party lines also.
VOTE YES!
May 31st, 2012
2:49 pm
Dusty, you keep assuming and I’ll keep proving you wrong.
Dusty, do you favor the Fair Tax? Do you favor everyone paying for the things everyone uses? What’s the best way to make sure all the users of a product are paying for said product?
iggy
May 31st, 2012
2:50 pm
“I thought the voting public was smarter.”
So did I, then Obama was elected.
VOTE YES!
May 31st, 2012
2:51 pm
iggy, good point but let’s see if he gets re-elected. Then we’ll know how smart the voting public is.
A Conservative Voice
May 31st, 2012
2:53 pm
@VOTE YES!
May 31st, 2012
2:34 pm
@ A Conservative Voice, so you must be one of those people with a vested interest in it not passing. Like you don’t want everyone to pay their fair share or something? You’d rather only legal property owning Americans pay for stuff? Nice. Or better yet, you’d rather keep using the gas tax to pay for transportation. This is the same gas tax that gets sent up to D.C. so the federal government can divide it up as they see fit. I guess that’s better in your view.
Naw, that’s not it at all……I can already see into the future as to what will happen to most of the money…….it will be spent on administrative expenses and a “Jobs Program”……I hate throwing my tax money down the toilet. Also, MARTA is a black hole…..you can never put enough money in it. Let’s rip ‘er up boys…..it’s a failed venture.
Bryan -- MARTA supporter
May 31st, 2012
2:58 pm
@ JohnnyReb
May 31st, 2012
12:59 pm
Why would MARTA or any agency charge fares so high that in the end they don’t compete with driving? If it costs as much as driving why would I use the service AND have the service take longer? That is the pay off that it may take a little longer but I save money with a cheap rate. Conservates don’t want to pay for it themselves because if that is the case you should pay for your own roads locally. Lets see how bad the burbs roads look when the population they have can’t afford the upkeep.
Dusty
May 31st, 2012
3:07 pm
Oh no, getalife’s twin brother is here. You know. AmVet.
sigh…..The pro-splotters must have called in the lib troopers.
Now it’s: ” D…..n the truth. Full speed ahead!” ( I paraphrase Adm. John Paul Jones.)
Dusty
May 31st, 2012
3:14 pm
VOTE YES, since you asked. …
I am for taxing all incomes with equal rates. I consider the money of rich people to be just as much theirs as those who make less. Equality is for all people, rich or poor. I do not believe in punishing the rich for being wealthy.
Tiberius - Banned by Bookman and proud of it!
May 31st, 2012
3:16 pm
Vote yes, please stop comparing tsplost to the fair tax. The fair tax REPLACES current taxes. This issue an ADDITIONAL tax.
Big difference.
VOTE YES!
May 31st, 2012
3:19 pm
Dusty, then it sounds like you favor a universal sales tax based on how much you purchase.
VOTE YES!
May 31st, 2012
3:23 pm
Tiberius, If this does not pass the gas tax will have to raised at some point to make up the difference. The gas tax is currently collected, sent to D.C., and then redistributed throughout the country. So, therefore, the SPLOST will replace a gas tax in the future.
Either way you look at it, something has to be done about traffic. Seems like using a sales tax is the most fair way to do it.
If you think we can afford to wait until the government decides to stop wasting and abusing the current tax money you are crazy and be prepared for increasingly worse traffic each year until the politicians are forced to raise the gas tax.
Dusty
May 31st, 2012
3:57 pm
VOTE YES..
INCOME! Income is the word I used. Not the one you gave as a substitute. I never mentioned purchases. You did. Don’t try to muddy the water.
VOTE YES!
May 31st, 2012
4:04 pm
Dusty, sorry, I wasn’t trying to change your wording. I was just relating it to the current debate. We are not getting a fair tax on income any time soon.
Phineas
May 31st, 2012
4:10 pm
Intown at 2:36 has it about right: “T-SPLOST is regressive, unimaginative, devoid of political courage, and has a poorly assembled project list. But, let’s face it, it’s the best our little imperfect democracy here in Georgia is going to come up with.” This IS the best we can hope for from our Georgia legislature. The alternative is nothing will happen, which I think even many/most conservatives would agree is not an acceptable option. And let’s face it — it doesn’t matter what the project list is, the “vote no” crowd will always be against it, just as they would be against any major public project.
So VOTE YES, unless you want Atlanta to continue to be stuck in a backward slide.
VOTE YES!
May 31st, 2012
4:19 pm
This is a map of Atlanta in 1940 with dozens of street cars and mass transit.
http://www.atlantadowntown.com/_files/docs/atlanta-1940-streetcar-map.pdf
In November of 1941 the citizens voted to end a 1% T-SPLOST and now we have Marta….I made up that last part.
md
May 31st, 2012
4:32 pm
“It won’t be until your job is gone that you’ll want to invest in things that keep the area growing.”
My job already left……I took it with me when I got out of the madness that is now Atl.
And as I said, infrastructure is the least of the worries…….best start focusing on where you are going to get water. If the dems other prophet is correct, global warming will boil what you have left into the clouds………
Dusty
May 31st, 2012
4:37 pm
Are any of you familiar with the paid bloggers we had before the last presidential election? I am.
Obama had twenty paid workers in Georgia alone. One of them was IN THE NEWS now known as mz godzilla at Bookmans. Almost every other post was one of hers against Bush and GOP. Continuosly! This is how they work.
They have the gift of gab to start with. They post as many comments as poosible , one right after another. They twist what others say. They mention their patriotism now and then to throw in credence. They never see anything wrong with Democrats and the like. They constantly repeat dubious fallacies against conservatives. In every subtle way, or not so subtle, support Obama and liberal views..
Now comes summer before the next election. I see a familiar pattern. Sure, I could be wrong. ‘but elections are coming and politics are hot. Suddenly we have a new vigorous fast moving lib (but denied)blogger posting like a banshee..
OK… I saw it in the past and rather not repeat the scene. Just wondered if you had noticed.
md
May 31st, 2012
4:39 pm
“Really when ATL generates most of the tax money for the state to spend on the ‘burbs and the little towns that contribute nothing?”
Those “burbs” are actually included in Atl and those citizens contribute quite a bit to the overall economy…..unless you really expect folks to believe that those inside the city limits do it all by themselves…..
And you may want to venture out into those small towns to see what they actually do contribute to the economy…….start with a little place called “Vidalia”……..
VOTE YES!
May 31st, 2012
4:40 pm
wow…I wish I was paid for this!
VOTE YES!
May 31st, 2012
4:41 pm
I see plenty wrong with Dems! LOL!
Rafe Hollister- trying to save the Choom Gang
May 31st, 2012
4:52 pm
md, is right, until the water wars are resolved growth/population increase should be off the table. We need access to more water before we worry about more transportation.
I am amazed at the two or three people who are for this thing. Everyone for it, admits it is poorly thought out, will be poorly managed, has much waste built in like the Beltline, and will not have much effect for a number of years, but it is the best that we can expect from our poorly governed state.
To me it is much like Oblamercare. The urge to get something done right away to reduce those healthcare costs. Pass the bill so we can read it and find out what is in it. Rig the numbers so we pay four years of taxes before we start paying out any benefits so it will look like it costs less.
Then we learn what the NO voters told you all along, the numbers were rigged, it is very expensive, it raises the cost of health insurance, no you can’t keep your provider, and yes everyone is going to be dumped on Oblamacare plan.
When do you people learn that politicians do what is expedient and lie to you to get it done. How many times are you going to play the sucker? Yes, we need improved transportation, but with the economy and the water situation the way it is, is now the time? Why can’t we wait until something sensible is proposed? It is not a priority at this time to pass a flawed bill that will serve to enrich the construction industry, tie up traffic for years, and do little to eradicate congestion.
VOTE YES!
May 31st, 2012
4:55 pm
You can read the law right now Rafe Hollister. I posted it in this blog.
JDW
May 31st, 2012
4:58 pm
@MD…”start with a little place called “Vidalia””
While I love Vidalia onions, little is the operative word. Whats the entire value of the crop $120-$150 million? How many companies in Atlanta generate more? Let me give you a hint…according to the Atlanta Business Chronicle there are more than 70 with revenues of $500 million or more.
Rafe Hollister- trying to save the Choom Gang
May 31st, 2012
5:00 pm
Vote Yes
New laws are written everyday that correct, change, override, and eliminate old laws. I don’t believe anything I hear and only half what I see. When you get to be my age you will understand. I had rather have the word of a used car salesman than a politicians.
JDW
May 31st, 2012
5:01 pm
@Rafe..”Why can’t we wait until something sensible is proposed? ”
We have been doing that for the last 10 years while falling further and further behind. 10 years ago the Metro area was one of the leading economies of this country. After 10 years of negect we drag along towards the rear. Sorry but acting like an ostrich doesn’t cut it.
Shaniqua
May 31st, 2012
5:05 pm
Enter your comments here
Rafe Hollister- trying to save the Choom Gang
May 31st, 2012
5:06 pm
JDW
I think by Vidalia he was might be referring to Agriculture. I may be wrong, but I believe that agricultural production throughout Georgia brings in more money than any other business sector. Don’t think there is much agricultural production within the Metro Atlanta area. The point being that the rest of Georgia does not just suck off Atlanta.
VOTE YES!
May 31st, 2012
5:06 pm
@ Rafe, this law can not be changed without another vote. Have you even read the bill?
MarkV
May 31st, 2012
5:08 pm
Dusty @3:57 pm @VOTE YES.
Please stop confusing each other as well as others. Dusty is in favor of Flat Tax, i.e., income tax with the same tax rate regardless of income. The proposed national sales tax is called Fair Tax, but that should be capitalized so that it is not confused with the issue of fairness of taxes.
md
May 31st, 2012
5:08 pm
“While I love Vidalia onions, little is the operative word. Whats the entire value of the crop $120-$150 million? How many companies in Atlanta generate more? Let me give you a hint…according to the Atlanta Business Chronicle there are more than 70 with revenues of $500 million or more.”
A bit deceptive there isn’t it? And how many of those companies generate all their income in Atlanta? or in Georgia for that matter?
And how many are actually based inside the city limits?? How many in the worthless “burbs” as Bryan calls them??
@@
May 31st, 2012
5:09 pm
VOTE YES:
I saw where another AJC Blog columnist booted Fred. Would you, perchance, be he? “LOL”
VOTE YES!
May 31st, 2012
5:09 pm
Here’s an idea, how about all you people that assume what will happen 5, 10 years from now actually read the bill and understand the facts before voting NO. Can you even do that? Or is it easier to go in blind and just say no because you can see into the future.
Ridiculous.
VOTE YES!
May 31st, 2012
5:11 pm
Amazing. Because somebody has an opinion that is different than yours and is actually passionate about it they MUST be a paid blogger or something.
I guess it is much easier to call someone a paid blogger or troll or something like that to actually believe that there are others with differing opinions that just might be right. Crazy.
Khedarius
May 31st, 2012
5:11 pm
It makes the pro-SPLOST boosters uncomfortable whenever we reference the GA400 never-ending-toll situation so in fairness let’s acknowledge the enhancement to 400 that resulted from extending the toll: we now get to drive in the emergency lane (but only @ certain times).
VOTE YES!
May 31st, 2012
5:14 pm
the GA 400 toll is completely different. It was not a law that the toll would end. The T-SPLOST is mandated by a law. It has to end and be re-voted on in 10 years. Or, if the money is raised before 10 years it will end at that point.
Rafe Hollister- trying to save the Choom Gang
May 31st, 2012
5:14 pm
JDW
It is not just congestion/transportation that has forced us into this decline. It is also lack of resources, i.e. water, cheap available land, poor schools, poorly trained workforce for today’s jobs, crime, high income tax rate compared to other neighboring states, too many counties and jurisdictions, and lack of cooperation of all the different levels of government. So, there is plenty we can be working on, until we come up with a decent transportation plan.
md
May 31st, 2012
5:19 pm
And rafe is correct……I said “start” in Vadalia…..
“Agriculture contributes more than $68.9 billion annually to Georgia’s $719.8 billion economy.”
Very little of it inside atl metro……………
Rafe Hollister- trying to save the Choom Gang
May 31st, 2012
5:28 pm
There was a tax on our phone bill that lasted well into the 1990’s, that originally was placed there temporarily, to finance the Spanish American War. People are creatures of habit, after awhile they just pay these taxes, never questioning what they are for or why they are still in place. Government doesn’t even send a thank you card!
@@
May 31st, 2012
5:38 pm
Romney’s favorability rating has jumped 13 pts among women…predominantly unmarried women.
hmmmm
Dave
May 31st, 2012
5:57 pm
Since we seem to be balkanizing infrastructure and transit, how about some gates on highways outside the perimeter and charge those folks with non-metro car tags and driver’s licenses to use our stuff? They can return the favor of course. While we’re at it, the possibly new city of Brookhaven could put up gates and charge the rest of us to use the roads the proponents say will be better than maintained than DeKalb currently does. Then there’s the gate at the entrance to….oops, that one’s already there.
dabir dalton
May 31st, 2012
6:25 pm
Kyle wrote: The promise to end the 400 toll once the bonds were paid off was just that: a promise by politicians, the kind of pledge that is — or should be assumed to be — made to be broken.
________________________
The sad truth is that there is no such thing as an honest politician since truly honest individuals don’t become politicians and remain honest. The system is corrupt and corrupts absolutely.
md
May 31st, 2012
7:21 pm
And so it begins:
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/31/nyregion/bloomberg-plans-a-ban-on-large-sugared-drinks.html
When the gov’t gets big enough to tell us all how to live, it’s all down hill from there…….freedom and liberty will be an after thought.
Next will be all sugary snacks, then Mickey D’s, then m&m’s, then………..
aps
May 31st, 2012
7:28 pm
I’ve not heard any answer to the question of what our state portion of the tax on a gallon of gas being used for. Currently it is around 28 cents per gallon.
Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!
May 31st, 2012
7:36 pm
“The proposed national sales tax is called Fair Tax, but that should be capitalized so that it is not confused with the issue of fairness of taxes.”
Yeah, ’cause taxing everybody at the same rate while making sure that there are no deductions and no one pays taxes on the basic necessities of life is inherently unfair, right, MaryV?