The truth about how long T-SPLOST will tax us
The T-SPLOST faces a challenging road to passage as it is. Imagine if supporters had to drum up votes for it either without the two segments of the Beltline; or without a bus/light rail line into Cobb County; or without any of the interchange improvements at I-285 and Ga. 400, I-285 and I-20 west, and I-285 and I-85 north. All while no other projects were added to the list.
Or, instead, imagine if they were asking voters to approve the same project list, with the same 1 percent sales tax for the same 10 years — while, at the same time, they were asking for another tax increase of $600 million to $850 million during the same decade.
Say hello to the T-SPLOST renewal campaign, circa 2022.
One of the hottest — and most disingenuous — aspects of the T-SPLOST debate has been the back and forth about whether the tax being put to a regional referendum in July would last only 10 years.
On the anti-tax side, some people suggest politicians will double-cross the voters and keep the tax past its promised end date, a la the extension of the toll on Ga. 400. They’re wrong. The promise to end the 400 toll once the bonds were paid off was just that: a promise by politicians, the kind of pledge that is — or should be assumed to be — made to be broken. The expiration of the T-SPLOST, on the other hand, is written into the law.
The pro-tax side assures us that voters will have the chance to reject any extension of the tax. And, as I’ve just described, they technically are correct.
But this assurance isn’t worth much when we consider the implications of passing the T-SPLOST for the first 10 years. Pass the tax in July, and we will be paying it, or another tax, for decades.
That much is clear from new, rough estimates about how much of the $6.14 billion project list would go for preliminary work, how much for construction, and how much for operation and maintenance of new transit.
The Atlanta Regional Commission has been compiling these estimates during the past few months. (Amazingly, local elected officials didn’t go into this kind of detail when approving the list of projects and their price tags.)
About a quarter of the $3.2 billion allocated to transit, $767.9 million, is estimated for these projects’ operations and maintenance for 10 years, as required by law. Because the projects would be built in timeframes that vary, they do not cover the same 10 years. But, at some point, the O&M funding would run out.
Some of the $767.9 million is for bus services that come with minimal new construction. Depending on whether all those services were renewed, and applying a modest inflation rate, we’re talking about second-decade costs of $600 million to $850 million just to keep these new projects running.
It’s extremely unlikely that we would spend $2.4 billion on new infrastructure and then shut it down after 10 years. In that respect, the T-SPLOST is very different from a special sales tax for education, after which voters could decide they’ve built enough new schools.
So we are probably left with the two unpalatable options I described at the beginning of this column: getting fewer projects with a renewed T-SPLOST, or raising other taxes to fill the gap.
The latter option is far-fetched. We’ve never raised other taxes to cover what’s become a perennial budget shortfall at MARTA. And how would the burden for projects built regionally be allocated, if not on a regional basis? (That question is another reason it would have been good to have a new regional model for transit governance before voting on the T-SPLOST.)
That leaves us with having less money from a renewed T-SPLOST to spend on new construction.
What would $600 million to $850 million buy? On this project list, we’re talking about some of the headliners:
- two segments of the Beltline (total cost: $601.9 million);
- bus or light rail into Cobb ($689 million);
- improvements at I-285 and Ga. 400 ($450 million), I-285 and I-85 north ($53 million), and I-285 and I-20 west ($149 million).
Each of those possibilities is closer to $600 million than to $850 million. And, obviously, we would be talking about forgoing different projects, such as expanding transit up I-85 north or across the top end of I-285, or building the super-arterial roads needed to pull traffic away from the interstates.
It may be that this is a choice voters in metro Atlanta are willing to make. But, so far, it’s not how the choice has been framed.
– By Kyle Wingfield
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228 comments Add your comment
Hillbilly D
May 31st, 2012
12:49 pm
Vote Yes
I don’t get to vote for the Mayor of my county seat. That’s 10 miles from here.
Dusty
May 31st, 2012
12:51 pm
Don, 12:38
If we were as thrifty as the Germans we would probably have better transportation. Wheee…an autobahn!
md
May 31st, 2012
12:54 pm
“You have the infrastructure and then the population increase (WHICH EQUALS MORE REVENUE) comes, not the other way around.”
Except infrastructure is not the big problem in Atl…….that would be water. Atl can have all the newest transportation it would want and still not solve that problem…..it would actually compound the problem by bringing in more unsustainable migrants.
It’s not like Atl can just go out and build another river……….
Hillbilly D
May 31st, 2012
12:56 pm
md
Excellent point. Atlanta and it’s environs had better find something to hang its economy on other than perpetual growth and wide open development. It’s not the center of the universe.
iggy
May 31st, 2012
12:57 pm
“It’s not like Atl can just go out and build another river……….”
HEAR HEAR…and precisely why we need no more increase in the population. Atlanta has peaked.
Dusty
May 31st, 2012
12:58 pm
md, 12:54
That is so poetic. Oh build me a river and I will grow! Then give me a boat so I can go.
(Don’t mind me. Your point is well taken. )
JohnnyReb
May 31st, 2012
12:59 pm
Cutty
May 31st, 2012
9:37 am
Everyone on the right enjoys talking about the perennial shortfalls of MARTA. This morning when I got to the train station, there were just as many cars w tags from Douglas, Cobb, and Carroll as there were Fulton. Imagine if these counties also had to pay the penny sales tax to help fund MARTA, instead if Fulton and Dekalb bearing the load. You ‘conservatives’ like to rail against freeloaders taking from the government. In this case, you are the freeloaders and proud of it. Go figure.
____________________
Here friends is a perfect example of the disconnect between Liberals and Conservatives.
Conservatives expect to pay for services; so those guys from outlying counties are paying the fee charged by MARTA.
Liberals expect the fee charged by MARTA to be less than its really worth with taxpayer subsidies paying the shortfall.
The real issue is not riders from outying counties not paying a tax to subsidize MARTA. The issue is MARTA not charging a fair that even comes close to operating at break even.
Finn McCool
May 31st, 2012
1:05 pm
unfrikkin-believable
Today, the House of Representatives will vote on a bill banning sex-selective abortions, despite the fact that the GOP leadership has insisted that it’s focused on the economy — and not that pesky “war on women” stuff they keep getting tarred with.
Finn McCool
May 31st, 2012
1:08 pm
Conservatives expect to pay for services
mwuahahahahahaha. Yeah, right!
VOTE YES!
May 31st, 2012
1:08 pm
So then your idea is to stunt population growth by not passing the referendum because Atlanta is already too big? Maybe you should move to Macon.
Jefferson
May 31st, 2012
1:08 pm
To those who only see black and white, news is the world is in color.
VOTE YES!
May 31st, 2012
1:09 pm
Hillbilly D, ok fine, your County Commissioner represented you.
1961_Xer
May 31st, 2012
1:10 pm
unfrikkin-believable
Today, the House of Representatives will vote on a bill banning sex-selective abortions, despite the fact that the GOP leadership has insisted that it’s focused on the economy — and not that pesky “war on women” stuff they keep getting tarred with
Selective abortion of female children IS a “war on women”.
If it were possible to read minds and tell that the sole reason a woman was having an abortion is BECAUSE of the sex of the child, I’d be all for writing a law against it. Look what is happening in India and China! But since that is (currently) impossible, this is just wasted energy.
getalife
May 31st, 2012
1:11 pm
Do you hear that?
That is the sound of our cons being marginalized as kooks.
Sounds good doesn’t it?
A Conservative Voice
May 31st, 2012
1:19 pm
@Road Scholar
May 31st, 2012
5:54 am
Folks, don’t listen to Road Scholar or Bryan……they obviously have a vested interest in T-SPLOST being passed. Vote NONONONONONONONONONONONONONONO on July 31st.
Sounds like another……..”We have to pass it in order to see what’s in it”………
You know, it not like I’m against the improvements…….what I’m against is giving those politicians any more money to flush down the toilet…….just more “Jobs Programs”.
@@
May 31st, 2012
1:20 pm
@Hillbilly D. Your County Commissioner and Mayor of your county seat represented you. You elected them.
Just like Obama represents the majority on abortion and HIS signature health care plan.
55% Support Repeal of Obama’s Health Care Plan
A new Gallup Poll, conducted May 7-10, finds 51% of Americans calling themselves “pro-life” on the issue of abortion and 42% “pro-choice.”
53% currently say abortion should be legal only under certain circumstances.
@@
May 31st, 2012
1:25 pm
Finn:
I was shocked to find out that sex-selective abortions are even allowed in the U.S.. The U.K. has banned them outright. I think it’s 47 states where it’s legal here. We’re no better than China.
Rafe Hollister- trying to save the Choom Gang
May 31st, 2012
1:35 pm
I have no dog in the abortion fight and am not a woman and too old to sprout any more of my own. I think women should be free to make that decision, and live with it, no whining.
BUT, only some mighty flawed narrow minded democrat thought challenged liberal, could think that a law that stops some woman from aborting females, is anti- female.
VOTE YES!
May 31st, 2012
1:38 pm
@ A Conservative Voice. Did you know a citizens oversight committee will be appointed and do annual audits to make sure every penny is being spent on the projects listed? I bet you didn’t. Just like the rest of the opponents seem to never know all the facts.
No TSPLOST
May 31st, 2012
1:39 pm
http://www.spencer4georgia.com/vote-no-on-t-splost/
VOTE YES!
May 31st, 2012
1:39 pm
@@, if you don’t like the way America is set up then leave the country. Guess what, if someone is elected by the people then they REPRESENT you. Like it or not. That’s the way it works here.
Rafe Hollister- trying to save the Choom Gang
May 31st, 2012
1:41 pm
Conservative Voice
just more “Jobs Programs”.
—————————————–
CW Matthews et al, jobs program. Three guys leaning on a shovel, two reading a blue print on the hood of the truck, two directing traffic, and one digging the hole. Traffic backed up for 25 miles. All work in one lane, but three lanes shut down, one open for traffic.
If this jobs program is like Oblamer’s, each job created will cost the taxpayers about $300,000.
VOTE YES!
May 31st, 2012
1:43 pm
http://www.spencer4georgia.com/vote-no-on-t-splost/ <—— This is another fine example on how uninformed people are, including potential state representatives. There are numerous assumptions and false statements in this diatribe.
Of course, nobody cares about facts anymore.
Rafe Hollister- trying to save the Choom Gang
May 31st, 2012
1:45 pm
Vote Yes, if your county gets two votes in a ” four county region” and your reps vote against the majority opinion, because their county is not benefiting from the proposal, you have representation, but it is useless. Bend over!
@@
May 31st, 2012
1:46 pm
@@, if you don’t like the way America is set up then leave the country.
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
Rafe Hollister- trying to save the Choom Gang
May 31st, 2012
1:47 pm
Vote Yes,
Do you work for CW Matthews or another company benefiting from this boondoogle?
Cutty
May 31st, 2012
1:47 pm
JohnnyReb
May 31st, 2012
12:59 pm
Show me where I ever expected the fee charged by MARTA to be less than its worth. Typical conservative thinking. We ITP liberals are paying the true cost thru the penny sales tax. I’m asking you conservative freeloaders to do the same. If you knew anything about public transit you wouldn’t have written such an idiotic post. Typical conservative, wants to pay the least and get the most.
VOTE YES!
May 31st, 2012
1:48 pm
Rafe Hollister, Firstly, I don’t make assumptions about who benefits besides the good citizens of our region, Secondly, to humor you, no I do not work for any construction company.
Rafe Hollister- trying to save the Choom Gang
May 31st, 2012
1:49 pm
@@
Maybe instead of you leaving the USA, we can do things the way Vote Yes described. Have a vote, every blogger gets a vote and we can boot Vote YES off the Island. He can vote, that is the way we do things in America.
VOTE YES!
May 31st, 2012
1:50 pm
Rafe Hollister, I don’t recall any representative of any county being against it at the time of voting for the completed project list. I’ll have to go back and double check though. Do you happen to know which county reps voted against the project list? Or against the whole idea at all?
VOTE YES!
May 31st, 2012
1:51 pm
@@, if a blog were an election I’d be happy to leave. Too bad it’s not. Sorry.
VOTE YES!
May 31st, 2012
1:52 pm
I meant to say “Rafe” not “@@”
DawgDad
May 31st, 2012
1:53 pm
I am getting very tired of reading accusations that the people opposing T-SPLOST are not interested in developing and maintaining regional infrastructure or supporting economic growth. I’ve lived in Cherokee and paid taxes for many years now without seeing a third lane materialize on I-575, and now understand an HOT lane is getting rammed down our throats. Throw away these billions of dollars while raising taxes and you will ultimately help STAGNATE growth in the Atlanta metro area.
iggy
May 31st, 2012
1:54 pm
“Typical conservative, wants to pay the least and get the most.”
No, we just get tired of paying for freeloaders and those who dont want to pay their own way…ie the lazy.(mainly obaManure voters)
@@
May 31st, 2012
1:55 pm
Never could I have imagined that leftists would be in here arguing on behalf of the well-connected and AT ANY PRICE, no less.
schnirt
Dusty
May 31st, 2012
2:07 pm
VOTE YES, 1:39
So… whomever is selected by vote is the one to support because the people said so.
I’m glad to hear that is what you think. Now I know YOU SUPPORTED GEORGE W. BUSH FOR EIGHT YEARS. Thank you. I supported him too.
VOTE YES!
May 31st, 2012
2:07 pm
I’m tired of paying for the lazy too!!! They should pay more of their share! If only there was a way to tax those that don’t pay income taxes or property taxes….hmmm…is there a way to tax EVERYBODY regardless of legality, socioeconomic status, etc….hmmm….maybe…maybe with a sales tax???!!! YES! that’s it!!! We could require EVERYONE to pay a sales tax for things that EVERYONE uses like roads, bridges, schools, etc….We could call it a Special Purpose Local Option Sales Tax!! That’s IT!!!
VOTE YES!
May 31st, 2012
2:08 pm
Dusty, that’s what I personally believe mostly because I’m an American and believe in my country and the will of the people. Maybe I’m crazy.
VOTE YES!
May 31st, 2012
2:09 pm
DawgDad, A HOT lane is not getting rammed down your throats. Do you happen to know how that 575/75 HOT lane is being funded?
VOTE YES!
May 31st, 2012
2:11 pm
Who here is in favor of a Fair Tax?
*HAND RAISED*
Guess what, this is the closest to a fair tax we are going to get any time soon.
Shawny
May 31st, 2012
2:13 pm
no. nyet. nein. zippo. nada. heck no
Dusty
May 31st, 2012
2:14 pm
VOTE YES
You dodged the implication on your beliefs. Just tell us, did you support George W. Bush when he was our elected president? WELL????????
iggy
May 31st, 2012
2:19 pm
“I’m an American and believe in my country and the will of the people. Maybe I’m crazy.”
Thats good to hear!! So when TSplost goes Splat you will understand its the will of the people.
VOTE YES!
May 31st, 2012
2:29 pm
Dusty, of course I did. Why would you assume I wouldn’t? You guys sure do make a lot of assumptions. I bet you all assume I voted for Obama too? Wow. ASSu(NOT)me
VOTE YES!
May 31st, 2012
2:29 pm
iggy, absolutely.
A Conservative Voice
May 31st, 2012
2:29 pm
@VOTE YES!
May 31st, 2012
1:38 pm
@ A Conservative Voice. Did you know a citizens oversight committee will be appointed and do annual audits to make sure every penny is being spent on the projects listed? I bet you didn’t. Just like the rest of the opponents seem to never know all the facts.
Yeah, right……if you really believe this is gonna happen you’re quite naive. The only fact I need to know is……If a local politician gets his/her hands on money, it will be wasted……period, and no “Oversight Committee” is gonna stop it. C’mon man, get real…..oh, you’re probably another one with a vested interest in passage
VOTE YES!
May 31st, 2012
2:30 pm
I’m just disappointed so many seemingly intelligent people here are not voting for it based on false “facts” and assumptions. I thought the voting public was smarter.
VOTE YES!
May 31st, 2012
2:31 pm
For those people that want to read the actual law again, here it is:
http://www1.legis.ga.gov/legis/2009_10/pdf/hb1218.pdf
Notice how it says the price of the project is to include maintenance and operational costs…
“(2) ‘Cost of project’ means:
208 (A) All costs of acquisition, by purchase or otherwise, construction, assembly,
209 installation, modification, renovation, extension, rehabilitation, operation, or
210 maintenance incurred in connection with any project of the special district or any part
211 thereof”
VOTE YES!
May 31st, 2012
2:32 pm
@ A Conservative Voice…it’s in the law. It has to happen.
VOTE YES!
May 31st, 2012
2:34 pm
@ A Conservative Voice, so you must be one of those people with a vested interest in it not passing. Like you don’t want everyone to pay their fair share or something? You’d rather only legal property owning Americans pay for stuff? Nice. Or better yet, you’d rather keep using the gas tax to pay for transportation. This is the same gas tax that gets sent up to D.C. so the federal government can divide it up as they see fit. I guess that’s better in your view.