The truth about how long T-SPLOST will tax us
The T-SPLOST faces a challenging road to passage as it is. Imagine if supporters had to drum up votes for it either without the two segments of the Beltline; or without a bus/light rail line into Cobb County; or without any of the interchange improvements at I-285 and Ga. 400, I-285 and I-20 west, and I-285 and I-85 north. All while no other projects were added to the list.
Or, instead, imagine if they were asking voters to approve the same project list, with the same 1 percent sales tax for the same 10 years — while, at the same time, they were asking for another tax increase of $600 million to $850 million during the same decade.
Say hello to the T-SPLOST renewal campaign, circa 2022.
One of the hottest — and most disingenuous — aspects of the T-SPLOST debate has been the back and forth about whether the tax being put to a regional referendum in July would last only 10 years.
On the anti-tax side, some people suggest politicians will double-cross the voters and keep the tax past its promised end date, a la the extension of the toll on Ga. 400. They’re wrong. The promise to end the 400 toll once the bonds were paid off was just that: a promise by politicians, the kind of pledge that is — or should be assumed to be — made to be broken. The expiration of the T-SPLOST, on the other hand, is written into the law.
The pro-tax side assures us that voters will have the chance to reject any extension of the tax. And, as I’ve just described, they technically are correct.
But this assurance isn’t worth much when we consider the implications of passing the T-SPLOST for the first 10 years. Pass the tax in July, and we will be paying it, or another tax, for decades.
That much is clear from new, rough estimates about how much of the $6.14 billion project list would go for preliminary work, how much for construction, and how much for operation and maintenance of new transit.
The Atlanta Regional Commission has been compiling these estimates during the past few months. (Amazingly, local elected officials didn’t go into this kind of detail when approving the list of projects and their price tags.)
About a quarter of the $3.2 billion allocated to transit, $767.9 million, is estimated for these projects’ operations and maintenance for 10 years, as required by law. Because the projects would be built in timeframes that vary, they do not cover the same 10 years. But, at some point, the O&M funding would run out.
Some of the $767.9 million is for bus services that come with minimal new construction. Depending on whether all those services were renewed, and applying a modest inflation rate, we’re talking about second-decade costs of $600 million to $850 million just to keep these new projects running.
It’s extremely unlikely that we would spend $2.4 billion on new infrastructure and then shut it down after 10 years. In that respect, the T-SPLOST is very different from a special sales tax for education, after which voters could decide they’ve built enough new schools.
So we are probably left with the two unpalatable options I described at the beginning of this column: getting fewer projects with a renewed T-SPLOST, or raising other taxes to fill the gap.
The latter option is far-fetched. We’ve never raised other taxes to cover what’s become a perennial budget shortfall at MARTA. And how would the burden for projects built regionally be allocated, if not on a regional basis? (That question is another reason it would have been good to have a new regional model for transit governance before voting on the T-SPLOST.)
That leaves us with having less money from a renewed T-SPLOST to spend on new construction.
What would $600 million to $850 million buy? On this project list, we’re talking about some of the headliners:
- two segments of the Beltline (total cost: $601.9 million);
- bus or light rail into Cobb ($689 million);
- improvements at I-285 and Ga. 400 ($450 million), I-285 and I-85 north ($53 million), and I-285 and I-20 west ($149 million).
Each of those possibilities is closer to $600 million than to $850 million. And, obviously, we would be talking about forgoing different projects, such as expanding transit up I-85 north or across the top end of I-285, or building the super-arterial roads needed to pull traffic away from the interstates.
It may be that this is a choice voters in metro Atlanta are willing to make. But, so far, it’s not how the choice has been framed.
– By Kyle Wingfield
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228 comments Add your comment
Cutty
May 31st, 2012
10:37 am
nd @ 9:55- How about GRTA increases their fees for the suburbanites so I don’t have to subsidize their commute w my tax dollars. That would only be right since the OTPers don’t want to pay for MARTA. Right Kyle?
MANGLER
May 31st, 2012
10:37 am
I live, work, and play primarily OTP. Because of that, I drive 99% of the time. I don’t expect the 5 cities that I commute through to cater to my personal needs. I chose where I live and I chose where I work. I’ve left jobs and moved around, but that was by choice, not mandate. While traffic patterns are on my mind, I’ve accepted certain thresholds due to where I reside. This idea that commuting must be short and hassle free and public transportation must be accessible to as many people as possible in and of itself is an unsustainable idea. You reach a point where if you’ve chosen to live in far flung suburbia you simply have to shut up and deal with irritatingly long and inconvenient travel options and increasing personal costs in time and money to do so. I don’t expect sympathy from someone living downtown, and I don’t expect them to pitch in and pay for infrastructure that I will use and they may never.
However, I do use their infrastructure, like most suburbanites who travel into the city for work or pleasure. So I won’t complain if I’m asked to help pay for that. I have ridden MARTA a few times, mainly to save on airport parking or to not have to find and pay for city parking on the occasion I go to those places. It’s been quite convenient and reliable, more-so than fluctuating traffic conditions. It’s always amazed me how inexpensive public transportation is. I know the ticket price is heavily subsidized. Maybe it shouldn’t be. There is no reason that it should only cost $2 to travel from North Springs to the Airport on the train. It would cost $4 to $6 in fuel alone in a car, plus parking and other related expenses. I would suggest that the ticket prices be raised to more accurately reflect how much the trip actually costs. I know I’ll get the “disproportionately affecting the poor and elderly and disabled” argument that gets tossed around whenever someone suggest paying fare rates for anything. I guess I’ll have to listen, considering there are no elderly, poor, or disabled people that reside OTP and yet seem to manage with little to no public transit options
While I’ve irked you, might as well ad that I’m a fan of eliminating the gas taxes and initiating a use or mileage tax. If your Prius gets three times the mileage as my similarly sized car, I pay three times the road taxes as you do. A semi does more damage to a road in a mile than my car does, but we’re paying the same rates in fuel taxes. An all electric car will pay no fuel taxes (i.e. infrastructure fees). Talk about disproportionate. Tax us on distance traveled rather than volume of fuel, and size and weights of vehicles can be taken into consideration pretty easily. If you commute 10 miles per day, you will likely save money. If you commute 50, well, you’re spending it on gas anyway.
1961_Xer
May 31st, 2012
10:43 am
So, for example, we’re going to spend a total of $1.3B on the Beltline and Clilfton Corridor transit — and then, at the end of 10 years, just stop running them? You cannot possibly believe that. If you do, you’re the only person on Earth who does.
Yes, Kyle, that is completely absurd. If that was really an option, JDW, then the entire metro area would vote a resounding “NO”.
$767 million is not inconsequential. What it says to me is that not only is this TSPLOST NOT going to improve traffic congestion very much for very many people, it is going to rob AT LEAST $767million from future transportation projects every 10 years in perpetuity. So when you vote “Yes” to TSPLOST, you are also committing to increased region-wide taxation for transportation projects for the major urban areas of the state… forever. As a suburban/rural citizen of your region, you will get virtually no transportation dollars for your area, while YOUR taxes go to fund urban areas which you may never travel.
For suburban/rural Georgia, the TSPLOST is looking worse every single day.
clyde
May 31st, 2012
10:46 am
The future cometh.It will cost money.Lots of money.I still vote no on tax increases.I am usually in the minority.
DawgDad
May 31st, 2012
10:49 am
Living in Cherokee County I’m destined to endure extended periods of highway construction with only the guarantee of increased congestion to look forward to, of course with the option to pay even MORE to buy my way around it on a daily basis. I am not in favor of providing even ONE PENNY more funding to G-DOT or whoever is mis-managing our transportation funds, let alone BILLIONS. The current project list is a complete 100% non-starter for me, the 10-year tax term is ridiculous, and the near-certainty of this tax running on forever is a poison pill in-and-of itself.
The only certainty is the swarm of leeches chasing after MY (taxpayer) money. Pride in Atlanta? I avoid going there like the plague. Inner city people have no hesitation jumping on the AJC blogs and calling those who share my values all kinds of nasty names, you think I want to commit BILLIONS of taxpayer dollars to their wasteful pet projects? No way, never, no how.
iggy
May 31st, 2012
10:57 am
This TSplost is a lose lose for everyone except the public sector and Marta, who thinks they can keep wasting and mismanaging funds indefinitely.
Kamchak ~ Thug from the Steppes
May 31st, 2012
10:58 am
But don’t you think we ought to know how we’re going to pay for something before we build it?
Have you mentioned that point to Ga. Power about their new nuclear facility?
JDW
May 31st, 2012
10:59 am
@Kyle…if we did not know the $767.9 figure or have any estimates of it prior to now then that is certainly something that should be reported. However, I still say a 10 year planning horizon is sufficient for this type spending and the fact that funding will have to be addressed after that time is not something that needs action today. In fact I think worrying about it now is premature.
Do I think we are going to just stop running the Beltline and Clilfton Corridor transit at the end of ten years. Not likely, but in ten years there could be a myriad of funding options other than TSPLOST that could come into play.
md
May 31st, 2012
11:01 am
“I know the ticket price is heavily subsidized. Maybe it shouldn’t be. There is no reason that it should only cost $2 to travel from North Springs to the Airport on the train.”
Those in favor that point to Euro systems must not be aware that they charge according to distance traveled……….needs to be done in the Atl as well.
Don't Tread
May 31st, 2012
11:02 am
Even though the expiration of the T-SPLOST is written into the law, whey can always write another law in the future to change that. And until some sunshine is injected into government, it’s just another slush fund for the well-connected at my expense. No thanks.
JDW
May 31st, 2012
11:03 am
@Kyle…”There are still two months to go before the vote.”
If there is an option that is better than TSPLOST or doing nothing I will be right there with you. But for now there is not.
md
May 31st, 2012
11:03 am
“nd @ 9:55- How about GRTA increases their fees for the suburbanites so I don’t have to subsidize their commute w my tax dollars.”
Works for me…….I say those that use the systems should be charged accordingly.
Kyle Wingfield
May 31st, 2012
11:04 am
JDW @ 10:59: Riiiight. Because the fiscal history of this state and nation suggests things usually work out better when we wait until there’s a problem to make a plan…
DawgDad
May 31st, 2012
11:07 am
“in ten years there could be a myriad of funding options other than TSPLOST that could come into play”
Having choked on my coffee, you at least deserve an opportunity to explain yourself. Based on decades of life experience, I would read this as “a myriad of creative new taxes that will come into play”.
iggy
May 31st, 2012
11:12 am
These downtown projects such as The Beltline, trolleys, light rail are just a pig in a poke that will not ever pay for themselvs or are “nice to haves” and not a necessity. Im with Dawg, in that, I rarely venture into the Atlanta cesspool. If Atl wants all these unnecessary projects then let the riders and citizens of such pay for them.
Bryan -- MARTA supporter
May 31st, 2012
11:19 am
iggy,
doing something has work much better than doing nothing and hoping it fixes itself. Obama took over a country that was “small government, tax breaks for the wealthy, and limited regulation for big companies.” Look where that got us and on top of the biggest break down in national security through the country into a recession. Making the top 10% of folks rich while us regular folks are struggling doesn’t seem like a great idea. Now if you are rich then I see why that makes sense to you. Bottom line it takes money to fix this problem. Think if Roosevelt wouldn’t have expanded government during the depression. Where would this country be? But no… you are right, let’s get Romney in there and continue to cut taxes for the rich. I’m sure a big business man himself wouldn’t find a benefit to doing that!
Rafe Hollister- trying to save the Choom Gang
May 31st, 2012
11:25 am
Think if Roosevelt wouldn’t have expanded government during the depression. Where would this country be?
———————————————
Probably solvent!
VOTE YES!
May 31st, 2012
11:26 am
For all you people that want to vote NO and have no solutions please do NOT complain and (female dog) about traffic if it does not pass.
Rafe Hollister- trying to save the Choom Gang
May 31st, 2012
11:30 am
let’s get Romney in there and continue to cut taxes for the rich.
Actually taxes have been cut for everyone. Think where the country would be if the poor and middle class had to come up with another $400 per year to pay Uncle Sugar. Obama must have liked the idea of lower taxes to help the economy, as he claims to be a big tax cutter, since he extended the Oblamer Tax Cuts. He is a big tax cutter and frugal to boot, just listen to him.
VOTE YES!
May 31st, 2012
11:31 am
http://it3.ga.gov/Documents/TIA-FactSheet-10-28-2011.pdf
Dusty
May 31st, 2012
11:33 am
Have many of you forgotten that there are “hard times” with a national debt that we must pay off. Remeber that? Do not add taxes on citizens when they already have huge huge debts overhead..
Here’s a simple plan. Drop TSPLOST and plan one year with the money you are sure you have and make modest plans that do not cost more than is surely expected. Cut every expense in DOT and related agencies until they stop spending like the state is wealthy. It is NOT. DO NOT RAISE TAXES. The majority of citizerns need their money more than a new road to somewhere.
But we do allocate some money for transportation. Do not plan to spend more than that. Forget ten years. We can go crazy with money when we have some.
Thank you, Kyle, for giving us exact figures. Otherwise, this is like the blind leading the blind.
Bryan -- MARTA supporter
May 31st, 2012
11:34 am
Too much “what am I going to get” from the No voters. “I live OTP and I never travel in the city.” That could be said for some ITP folks that ride in ATL. What about those others that commute OTP to ITP and vise versa? That kind of thinking weakens the entire region. Bottom line is this is the ATLANTA metro area. There are more people that will benefit from transit in the city and more that will benefit from roads OTP. But should an ITP not pay for roads OTP? No because there are others that do use them. Vise versa should OTP not expand transit in there area and help pay for MARTA? Again, no because there are people who make that commute into the city every day. We are a region and need to think that way. There are going to be more buses and trains within Fulton and Dekalb but rail lines, even if just one to take you into the city with connecting buses should be there and supported. ITP we need roads ITP and major roads OTP cause while some employers go to downtown and midtown others will go to suburban office parks. You never know where your job will take you and where people choose to live. In the end no body is going to drive on every road in the metro area or take every bus and train in the metro area. That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t suppor the other regardless of what you support: transit or roads.
1961_Xer
May 31st, 2012
11:34 am
“in ten years there could be a myriad of funding options other than TSPLOST that could come into play”
LMFAO! Read ” in ten years, there could be a myriad of new taxes other than TSPLOST that WILL come into play”. Anyway you read it, if you are voting for TSPLOST, you are voting for new taxes in perpetuity. And do you think Atlanta/Fulton/Dekalb are, by themselves, going to pay for ongoing maintenance and operations totaling at least $80 million a year for projects voted in by the region? How long till we hear, “you helped vote it in, now you have to help pay O&M”?
This is a HUGE permanent money grab by urban areas.
Dusty
May 31st, 2012
11:40 am
Vote against T-SPLOST.
Ask yourself on state and national finances: Do you want to be more like Greece or Germany?
Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!
May 31st, 2012
11:41 am
I am Constitutionally opposed to voting myself a pay decrease.
VOTE YES!
May 31st, 2012
11:48 am
“I am Constitutionally opposed to voting myself a pay decrease.”
Please don’t use the roads, bridges, trains, sidewalks, police, fire, etc anymore. Thanks.
Dusty
May 31st, 2012
11:52 am
Tiberius @ 11:41
I’m with you on that one..No mo pay DEcreases.
Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!
May 31st, 2012
11:52 am
Vote Yes, I pay more than my fair share of federal, state and local taxes for roads, bridges, sidewalks police and fire which I do or may use, and for trains that I will never use.
So you may kiss my royal behind if you don’t like the fact that I refuse to vote myself a pay decrease to fund even more. Got it?
jj
May 31st, 2012
11:53 am
Read the entire list, the problem is the amount of pork and BS projects to satisfy some special interest group. I keep reading about the 400-I85 interchange; correct me if I’m wrong but didn’t they keep the toll booth up in order for tolls to pay for this interchange, and now it is on the TSPLOST list. And they expect us to just, “trust them”?????
Jefferson
May 31st, 2012
11:56 am
This is the kind of crap you get from the GA GOP gov’t. They have no credibility to solve any problems, because of their tax policy mindset and the fact they won’t fix gov’t, just say its not the answer. Well YOU have to fix it because that is what we have to work with, in the mean time the greedy let the roads crumble.
VOTE YES!
May 31st, 2012
12:02 pm
Tiberius, that money that we all already pay is not enough to keep up with the population increase in this city. Sorry.
Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!
May 31st, 2012
12:06 pm
Yes it is, Vote Yes. The city merely has to prioritize their own expenses and more importantly (if they want to be a city), they need to fund their infrastructure improvements themselves with a local tax voted in by their citizens or their elected officials.
Atlanta needs to stop sucking the life out of the rest of this state, and take care of themselves.
I am NOT my brother’s keeper unless I choose to be – voluntarily and with free will.
JDW
May 31st, 2012
12:07 pm
@Kyle…”Because the fiscal history of this state and nation suggests things usually work out better when we wait until there’s a problem to make a plan…”
To me 10 years is a plan…I have never in all my years of Corporate life ever seen a plan that did not require adjustment as it progressed. 10 years is IMO a very long planning horizon and anything more is just guessing.
JDW
May 31st, 2012
12:09 pm
@Rafe…”Probably solvent!”
How do you say solvent in German?
Darby
May 31st, 2012
12:09 pm
So, my county is expected to pay out 156M but in return we will receive 25M in road benefits. No thanks.
yuzeyurbrane
May 31st, 2012
12:16 pm
Kyle, sharp, insightful analysis. Thank you for treating the public like adults. Too bad T-Splost promoters and detractors think we can only handle 30 second soundbites. All of this explains why I have remained ambivalent about this issue.
md
May 31st, 2012
12:16 pm
“Bottom line it takes money to fix this problem.”
Bottom line, it takes money from the private sector to carry the weight of a bloated gov’t sucking everything dry.
The gov’t doesn’t generate much of anything…..it must come from the private sector, yet people like this bitch and moan about companies making huge profits which just happens to be in their best interests.
We are corporations, and we want huge profits with just enough gov’t to provide the common functions of society. When the parasite gets too big, the body dies.
Don
May 31st, 2012
12:20 pm
Darby – I guess you never travel outside your county. The region’s counties are joined at the hip. That’s why it’s a REGIONAL tax….
Hillbilly D
May 31st, 2012
12:28 pm
The expiration of the T-SPLOST, on the other hand, is written into the law.
Laws can and do get changed all the time. I don’t trust them.
Dusty
May 31st, 2012
12:32 pm
When T-SPLOST Went SPLAT (a poem!)
————————————————
There were some Georgia gentlemen
Who worked hard from ten to ten.
They made a great plan
To take your money on demand.
The proposal went something like this:
“Your money you won’t miss!
I’ll build a bouquet of transit
With plans all written in Sanskrit.
You will go from here to there
With nary a nick or a care.
In ten years I’ll propose
Another plan, sweet as a rose.
Just give your $$$$ to me
And I’ll spend it just for thee.”
But the ladies turned pale
And let out a wail!
Place your sticky fingers elsewhere.
It’s my money and dear.
You’ve doublecrossed me before
But it won’t happen any more.
I’ll take the road least chosen
Instead of the one you’re proposin’.
So look on the books to see what’s there
And that is ALL we’re going to share.
To T-SPLOST it’s toodle loo.
I’m keeping my money, thank you!
VOTE YES!
May 31st, 2012
12:33 pm
@Hillbilly D. That law can not be changed without another vote.
On another note, it’s amazing the amount of information that is assumed in these arguments.
VOTE YES!
May 31st, 2012
12:35 pm
@ Tiberius. Which is why it is a REGIONAL splost, not a state wide referendum.
Don
May 31st, 2012
12:36 pm
For the life of me, I can never figure out why some people can’t get past the O&M subsidies for transit. Is it just complete ignorance on what it would take to build, operate and maintain highways with the same capacity?
There are roughly 140,000 MARTA rail commuters each day making a round trip. If you take this away, you’re talking about having to add at least 20 lanes to the downtown connector to handle the same traffic, just for starters. You could pay the O&M subsidy for several MARTAs in perpetuity with that chunk of change.
As for building transportation capacity to carry existing trips. Never happens. Think NYC’s subway system was built AFTER all those skyscrapers went up? The skyscrapers were build because the transportation capacity to support them was already in place.
Hillbilly D
May 31st, 2012
12:36 pm
VOTE YES
I don’t remember voting to be part of a region (not Atlanta by the way), which can levy a tax on me because 2 counties in my region have all the votes and can vote a tax increase for the rest of us. Even if this thing passes, I expect lawsuits on that very point. It’s taxation without representation in my view.
Don
May 31st, 2012
12:38 pm
Dusty @11:40. I want transportation like they have in Germany!
VOTE YES!
May 31st, 2012
12:41 pm
@Hillbilly D. Your County Commissioner and Mayor of your county seat represented you. You elected them.
md
May 31st, 2012
12:42 pm
“There are roughly 140,000 MARTA rail commuters each day making a round trip. If you take this away, you’re talking about having to add at least 20 lanes to the downtown connector to handle the same traffic, just for starters.”
And how many of that 140k go 2 blocks from station to station?
VOTE YES!
May 31st, 2012
12:45 pm
@ Don. Exactly. You have the infrastructure and then the population increase (WHICH EQUALS MORE REVENUE) comes, not the other way around.
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
May 31st, 2012
12:45 pm
Hey, here’s an example of a well-to-do conservative creating jobs! Way to go, Curt Schilling!
I am sure Schilling will emerge from this terrible trial slightly bloodied but still totally rich and famous while, some schools get shut down or some firefighters are laid off or something, because of this gritty new addition to Rhode Island’s budget deficit.
http://www.salon.com/2012/05/31/welfare_baby_curt_schilling_i_am_not_a_welfare_baby/
killerj
May 31st, 2012
12:49 pm
If MARTA is involved it will fail.