Share of working-age Americans with a job is the lowest in decades
In the debate about whether the headline unemployment rate tells the whole story about the labor market, here’s another data point indicating there’s more than meets the eye. From the Washington Post:
The proportion of Americans in their prime working years who have jobs is smaller than it has been at any time in the 23 years before the recession, according to federal statistics, reflecting the profound and lasting effects that the downturn has had on the nation’s economic prospects.
By this measure, the jobs situation has improved little in recent years. The percentage of workers between the ages of 25 and 54 who have jobs now stands at 75.7 percent, just a percentage point over what it was at the downturn’s worst, according to federal statistics.
Before the recession the proportion hovered at 80 percent.
The story explains once more why the headline unemployment rate, which has held steady or fallen for 11 straight months, doesn’t paint the whole picture. Short answer: It’s about the continued problem of people giving up searching for work and taking themselves, statistically speaking, out of the work force — leading the unemployment rate to fall at a faster pace than job creation is rising.
But even this stat for 25- to 54-year-olds doesn’t tell the whole story. Further down in the article, we read:
The falloff has been sharpest for men, for whom the proportion had been on a slow decline before the recession. The percentage of prime-age men who are working is smaller now than it has been in any time before the recession, going all the way back to 1948, according to federal statistics. The proportion of prime-age women is at a low not seen since 1988.
That’s right: The proportion of prime-age men with a job is the smallest in at least 64 years. I say “at least” because 1948 is as far back as federal labor statistics go.
In the immediate future, this reality means the job market will have a larger impact on President Obama’s re-election chances than the steadily declining unemployment rate would suggest. Until participation in the labor force readjusts to historically normal levels, the unemployment rate doesn’t tell us as much as it once did. So the usual measures of how an incumbent does when the jobless rate is above or below X percent won’t do prognosticators as much good.
More broadly, however, this speaks to the issues Charles Murray highlights in his recent book, “Coming Apart.” Murray documents the dramatic divergence in employment between what he calls “the new upper class” and “the new lower class” — and argues that government programs that foster a culture of dependence and lack of personal responsibility have enabled this joblessness among men who otherwise ought to be working.
That broader context of the competing political ideologies in our country makes it all the more worthwhile for these depressing employment trends to be at the center of this year’s presidential campaign.
– By Kyle Wingfield
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240 comments Add your comment
Dusty
May 30th, 2012
5:16 pm
MarkV
You do your simplistic thinking and I will do mine. That sounds fair enough.
JDW will join you as soon as he recovers from his hate Bush attack
Cheers! I’m off to the joys of juicy gems and simplistic sauces. Delightful!
Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!
May 30th, 2012
5:16 pm
“I believe that Bush was the worst President this country has ever known and by in large the Presidential Scholar Community agrees with that assessment.”
Gee. . . Presidential Scholars . . . where would we find them . . . ?
Maybe in institutions proven to be populated with a 90+% liberal mentality, maybe?
Not exactly objective, are we, JDW?
md
May 30th, 2012
5:17 pm
“as long as we are clear Bush and anyone like him are BAD FOR THE COUNTRY.”
I can’t give much credence to a group of scholars that do not take the element of time into account when doing a ranking. It is still too early to rank any President within the past 10-20 years without seeing the full effect of their policies/actions…..and that includes Obama.
In another 20-30 years, the landscape around the globe may be very different due to the actions of our country, and one is jumping the gun to assume how it may play out.
235 more days
May 30th, 2012
5:18 pm
Warren Gets Swift Boated
Cherokees to Elizabeth Warren: ‘We don’t claim you
Jefferson
May 30th, 2012
5:18 pm
Kyle, I suggest to you the reason the US has such a strong middle class is due to the “most progressive tax in the industrialized world”. This is not a bad thing.
JDW
May 30th, 2012
5:18 pm
@Tiberius…”What is your point?”
My point is that Faux News is anything but “Fair and Balanced” and there is a mountain of data to support that. Is MSNBC..no…but they don’t purport to be.
Hillbilly D
May 30th, 2012
5:21 pm
In another 20-30 years, the landscape around the globe may be very different due to the actions of our country, and one is jumping the gun to assume how it may play out.
My personal opinion is it takes 30-40 years to look at a President’s stay in office, objectively. A lot of things don’t follow election cycles as to how they wind up. What looks good or bad today, often looks different with the perspective that time gives.
Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!
May 30th, 2012
5:22 pm
“My point is that Faux News is anything but “Fair and Balanced” and there is a mountain of data to support that.”
Then please provide such data, JDW. I’d love to see something objective from you.
Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!
May 30th, 2012
5:23 pm
“Kyle, I suggest to you the reason the US has such a strong middle class is due to the “most progressive tax in the industrialized world”.”
But according to you libs, Jefferson, the middle class is not only hurting, it’s shrinking.
Can’t have it both ways, son, no matter how hard you try.
@@
May 30th, 2012
5:25 pm
There are times when I watch O’Reilly and think…
that guy’s kinda liberal.
I know Silly Shep Smith is.
@@
May 30th, 2012
5:26 pm
But according to you libs, Jefferson, the middle class is not only hurting, it’s shrinking.
Had the same thought when I read Jefferson’s post.
JDW
May 30th, 2012
5:26 pm
@Tiberius…”Maybe in institutions proven to be populated with a 90+% liberal mentality, maybe?”
So all 238 preeminent Presidential Scholars are liberal…
“Not exactly objective, are we, JDW?”
Facts are facts…not much objective to it…the people that devoted their lives to studying the effectiveness of Presidents are credible enough for me. However, I am sure that in your world all of their preparation and study is trumped by your unique understanding…
Hillbilly D
May 30th, 2012
5:27 pm
Are Presidential scholars divided into major and minor like historians?
Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!
May 30th, 2012
5:31 pm
“So all 238 preeminent Presidential Scholars are liberal”
Your words, not mine, JDW.
And what you are quoting are not “facts”, but “opinion”, JDW.
Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!
May 30th, 2012
5:31 pm
Where’s josef when you need him, Hillbilly D?
Hillbilly D
May 30th, 2012
5:36 pm
Tiberius
Couldn’t resist that one.
MarkV
May 30th, 2012
5:38 pm
Dusty@5:16 pm: “You do your simplistic thinking and I will do mine. “
Au contraire, only your thinking in this natter is simplistic. Without going into details, just a simple question: Most developed, industrialized countries (including, naturally, the US) have progressive tax systems – people with higher income paying according to higher tax rates. With only a few exceptions, countries with a flat tax system you think is the right one are the former Soviet bloc countries. Who do you think is likely to have a better idea?
@@
May 30th, 2012
5:39 pm
If oil prices continue to fall, enjoy the lower gas prices for all that they are worth, because most experts agree this will indicate that recession is around the corner. After all, oil demand has always been a key indicator of economic growth. A booming economy demands more oil, a shrinking economy reduces its consumption.
Jeff Rubin, former chief economist for CIBC World Markets, told Canadian media that the danger of cheap oil is that it will mean much slower economic growth in the future, noting that “oil prices plunged to $40 a barrel in the last recession.”
The bottom line is that this is as good as it’s going to get, one way or another, and cheaper gas at the pumps doesn’t necessarily translate into good times. It’s all relative.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/47618587
I was at some leftwing site the other day where they were celebrating unemployment. The fewer drivers on the road, the less harm to the environment.
The silver lining thingy?
md
May 30th, 2012
5:42 pm
“Facts are facts…”
Which is why it takes time…….30 years from now, Iraq may be the preeminent democracy in the middle east, leading the way for a group of democracies in the area……vs Israel being the lone ranger as they have been for so long. And guess how the folks in that area may then remember one GWB…….
Or, the ME implodes at the hands of radicals and GWB and Obama together shoulder the burden of blame for their actions………..
A scholar worth his/her weight would know that……….
ragnar danneskjold
May 30th, 2012
5:44 pm
As with all leftist “solutions,” the cure has been more damaging than the evil they sought to remedy.
Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!
May 30th, 2012
5:46 pm
“Who do you think is likely to have a better idea?”
People who one lived under the yoke of tyranny, MaryV.
They can actually appreciate the true meaning of the word “fair”, where liberals cannot.
md
May 30th, 2012
5:51 pm
“As with all leftist “solutions,” the cure has been more damaging than the evil they sought to remedy.”
And one need look no further than the credit card bill passed when the dems had all the numbers…..for those that say socialism isn’t here, one should look at the bill.
All it did was screw the responsible card holders in favor of the irresponsible card holders…..and raised the rates of all. Yet many on the left still think it was for a good cause……..
Kyle Wingfield
May 30th, 2012
6:01 pm
MarkV: For the record, the flat taxes in the former Soviet bloc came well after the fall of communism, and at the recommendation of economists from the developed, industrialized countries to which you referred.
MarkV
May 30th, 2012
6:15 pm
Kyle Wingfield @6:01 pm: “For the record, the flat taxes in the former Soviet bloc came well after the fall of communism, and at the recommendation of economists from the developed, industrialized countries to which you referred.”
Kyle,
Thank you for enlightening me. I would not have guessed that whatever happened in the FORMER Soviet bloc happened AFTER the fall of communism.
DannyX
May 30th, 2012
6:52 pm
LOL at this quote from the Romney campaign today defending Romney’s poor jobs record while governor of Massachusetts…
“Governor Romney inherited an economy that was losing jobs each month and left office with an economy that was adding jobs each month.”
Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!
May 30th, 2012
6:56 pm
“and at the recommendation of economists from the developed, industrialized countries to which you referred.”
Even I figured out what Kyle was trying to get across past your thick skull, MaryV.
The obvious was lost on you, however.
Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!
May 30th, 2012
6:58 pm
Adding jobs in a state that has what most economists consider full employment, DannyX, is quite the accomplishment.
Even if you don’t get it.
And where’s your pithy response to my analysis of Massachusetts electoral politics from a couple of hours ago?
DannyX
May 30th, 2012
7:07 pm
“And where’s your pithy response to my analysis of Massachusetts electoral politics from a couple of hours ago?”
I read it, it was nonsense. Not worth a reply.
Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!
May 30th, 2012
7:18 pm
You mean you read it, didn’t understand it, and couldn’t reply, don’t you, DannyX?
Depth of argument is unattainable for you libs, isn’t it?
But since you at least bothered to answer me, please feel free to tell me which specific parts of it you didn’t agree with, or deemed “nonsense”.
Dusty
May 30th, 2012
7:18 pm
I am not for a flat tax system. I am for equal “rates” on income of all people. That to me is equal and fair, the way most Republicans operate.
Can’t worry about such things right now. The Braves are ready to WIN this game. Go BRAVES!
Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!
May 30th, 2012
7:33 pm
Dusty, equal rates on income for everyone IS a flat tax system.
Just sayin’.
@@
May 30th, 2012
7:59 pm
Humans Can Sniff Out Old Age in Others, Study Shows
WEDNESDAY, May 30 (HealthDay News) — How old do you think you smell? A new study suggests that humans possess the ability to judge whether a person has reached their senior years just by sniffing their body odor.
Government funded?
What purpose does a study like ^^^ that serve? HECK! Even without benefit of a fabricated fragrance, (cologne, perfume, deodorant) men smell different than women.
JDW
May 30th, 2012
9:30 pm
@tiberius…”And what you are quoting are not “facts”, but “opinion”, JDW.”
No the fact is that the people that study President’s for a living agree Bush was the worst. Your opinion may differ but facts are facts.
Solutions
May 30th, 2012
9:55 pm
Dusty, there were robots at the grocery store and at the gas station: The self scanners are a form of robot, as are the self serve pumps.
Solutions
May 30th, 2012
9:57 pm
@@ – Old men smell like urine due to their enlarged prostates, it is inevitable, leading directly to dripping!
Dusty
May 30th, 2012
10:32 pm
Tiberius, 7:33
I thought those candidates advocating “flat tax” wanted to abolish income tax and apply taxes to everything bought, sold, etc. I only want equal percentages on income tax.
I don’t know much the policies of those “flat-tax” politicians. Did not plan to vote for them.
Dusty
May 30th, 2012
10:45 pm
Solutions 9:55,
I want robots to look like robots, those cute things they show on space movies. R-2 & D-2, for example. Or those scary things like Robo-Cop. Gas pumps don’t count!
MarkV
June 1st, 2012
4:44 pm
Dusty @4:14 pm
“I said that I thought that the news was bad for Obama, the country and Georgia. Since Obama is the president, don’t you think it is logical to include him?”
I did not protest including Obama. I referred to your order of words: “a very bad 12 hours”. for Obama ( and Georgia and the rest of the USA).
“Then I ask YOU a question and you replied by saying you did not say that. Please! I said it. It was a question for you.”
Dusty @2:54: ”Are you trying to say that all this bad news is really good news and the country is doing exceedingly well under President Obama? “
Don’t play coy, Dusty. You intimated (“Are you trying to say….?”) that I had said something about the country doing exceedingly well under President Obama. I did not. As a matter of fact, had you read my post on May 30th, 2012 @2:55 pm, you would have seen that I wrote there that in my view the situation was at least as bad as Kyle wrote about, if not worse. However, if you start writing about “under President Obama,” I will start writing about what happened “under President Bush.”
MarkV
June 1st, 2012
4:48 pm
My apologies. Posted to the wrong blog.
davetv
June 2nd, 2012
2:43 am
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