Share of working-age Americans with a job is the lowest in decades
In the debate about whether the headline unemployment rate tells the whole story about the labor market, here’s another data point indicating there’s more than meets the eye. From the Washington Post:
The proportion of Americans in their prime working years who have jobs is smaller than it has been at any time in the 23 years before the recession, according to federal statistics, reflecting the profound and lasting effects that the downturn has had on the nation’s economic prospects.
By this measure, the jobs situation has improved little in recent years. The percentage of workers between the ages of 25 and 54 who have jobs now stands at 75.7 percent, just a percentage point over what it was at the downturn’s worst, according to federal statistics.
Before the recession the proportion hovered at 80 percent.
The story explains once more why the headline unemployment rate, which has held steady or fallen for 11 straight months, doesn’t paint the whole picture. Short answer: It’s about the continued problem of people giving up searching for work and taking themselves, statistically speaking, out of the work force — leading the unemployment rate to fall at a faster pace than job creation is rising.
But even this stat for 25- to 54-year-olds doesn’t tell the whole story. Further down in the article, we read:
The falloff has been sharpest for men, for whom the proportion had been on a slow decline before the recession. The percentage of prime-age men who are working is smaller now than it has been in any time before the recession, going all the way back to 1948, according to federal statistics. The proportion of prime-age women is at a low not seen since 1988.
That’s right: The proportion of prime-age men with a job is the smallest in at least 64 years. I say “at least” because 1948 is as far back as federal labor statistics go.
In the immediate future, this reality means the job market will have a larger impact on President Obama’s re-election chances than the steadily declining unemployment rate would suggest. Until participation in the labor force readjusts to historically normal levels, the unemployment rate doesn’t tell us as much as it once did. So the usual measures of how an incumbent does when the jobless rate is above or below X percent won’t do prognosticators as much good.
More broadly, however, this speaks to the issues Charles Murray highlights in his recent book, “Coming Apart.” Murray documents the dramatic divergence in employment between what he calls “the new upper class” and “the new lower class” — and argues that government programs that foster a culture of dependence and lack of personal responsibility have enabled this joblessness among men who otherwise ought to be working.
That broader context of the competing political ideologies in our country makes it all the more worthwhile for these depressing employment trends to be at the center of this year’s presidential campaign.
– By Kyle Wingfield
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240 comments Add your comment
md
May 30th, 2012
2:47 pm
“To apply this thinking to a simplistic example:
So, if they both had apples on hand, a person with lots of money would eat more apples in a day than a person with little money?”
A wee bit too simplistic……the economy has more than just apple vendors……if the more expensive goods are not being purchased, those vendors can’t make their profit….which means more jobs cut.
md
May 30th, 2012
2:49 pm
“Actually one of the problems is that they don’t really carry thier load. Taxes as a % of revenue are about as follows:
Payroll Taxes 40%
Income Taxes 42%
Corporate Taxes 9%
Other Taxes 6%
Excise Taxes 3%”
Huh??
ALL those taxes come from corporations……..they don’t make their profits, those taxes aren’t collected either…….
Grasshopper
May 30th, 2012
2:49 pm
“People leaving the workforce in droves during Obama’s term = bad. People were leaving the workforce in droves during Romney’s term, he’s the one us republicans picked to fix the problem.”
You conveniently ignore the fact that Mass. was at full employment with Romney as governor. You cannot explain that away.
JDW
May 30th, 2012
2:52 pm
@Dusty…”Having an honest, strong, dependable, patriotic, hard-working, ethical president again will certainly be refreshing.”
Honest–just where did I put those WMD’s.
Strong–have you seen the “My Pet Goat” video…http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5WztB6HzXxI
Dependable–”We’ll get Bin Laden dead or alive”…hummm
Patriotic–The carrier landing just brought tears to my eyes…of course onions do as well.
Hard-Working–Have you seen the vacation days through Feb of year 4…Bush 220 Obama about 100.
Ethical–Only if you like torture as an interrogation device.
Have some coffee….
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
May 30th, 2012
2:53 pm
And you do realize that those checks allow people to remain unemployed and unproductive?
———
Fixed. And yes, we do.
DannyX
May 30th, 2012
2:54 pm
“You cannot explain that away.”
I already did. You cannot explain why Romney is so unpopular in Mass.
Dusty
May 30th, 2012
2:54 pm
Danny X,
Romney does not think like a liberal. He has high regard for Bush and will have even more when he faces the complexities before him in Washington after winning the election. Why do you think Obama has followed so many of Bush’s programs?.Because they made “sense”.
Bush faced one of the greatest calamities in American history and came out solid as a rock. Too bad liberals have such short memories but Romney is not afflicted with such deficiencies as that.
iggy
May 30th, 2012
2:55 pm
“And you do realize that those checks allow people to “buy” stuff with the funds they provide? That spend contributes to the economy as well.”
Then based on that logic everyone should quit their jobs and go on unemployement. After all, that spending contributes to the economy.
Im putting a frowny face beside your name on The Employee of the Day Calendar.
Thats two days in a row. Wanna try for 3?
MarkV
May 30th, 2012
2:55 pm
I think it is a mistake for Obama supporters to minimize the gravity of the employment situation. It may seem to make sense politically, but in reality the people who are affected will know better even if they are told it is not so bad. And while one can quibble with a statistic here and there, from what I know the situation is at least as bad as Kyle describes, if not worse.
It is also not very productive to keep hammering at Bush’s guilt. When the discussion is about Obama’s performance, it is very appropriate to point out the situation he inherited. But regarding blame, there is plenty of it not only with Bush, but also with others, including some prominent Democrats.
What the discussion should be about is the appropriate policy that would most likely result in an improvement. And this is where the “the sky is falling, look at the national debt” crowd is the major obstacle.
——————————————–
Dusty,
If you are interested, I have written my response to your late night post.
Rafe Hollister- trying to save the Choom Gang
May 30th, 2012
2:55 pm
Dusty
President Romney will be a better President that Pres Bush. He is so much better at solving problems and seems to have learned his lesson well, that trying to cater to the libs will not make them like you. Bush spent too much time and effort trying to be a uniter not a divider. He seemed to think they sided with him in private, but made fun of him and voted against him in public. He should have realized with whom he was dealing, long before he did.
Romney is a better speaker and will be much better than GWB at explaining himself and his positions. I think when he gets in office, he will be able to engage the American people in an effort to pay down some of this debt and get the budget under control. Bush did not have the ability to express himself well.
JDW
May 30th, 2012
2:56 pm
@Dusty…”You missed the point. ”
No the point is that while we wish things were a bit better they are a damn sight improved from Duhbya’s Folly. Even a 1st grader knows that if you get burned once not to do the same thing again. Romeny=Duhbya
iggy
May 30th, 2012
2:58 pm
‘they are a damn sight improved from Duhbya’s Folly”
DannyX
May 30th, 2012
2:59 pm
“You cannot explain why Romney is so unpopular in Mass.”
Grasshopper, seems to me the people in Massachusetts elected a couple of Republicans recently, Gov Romney then a few years later Sen Brown. You still haven’t answered the question, why is Romney so unpopular in Mass?
Republican Sen Brown is favored to win reelection in November, Romney is going to lose Mass. by 25%.
JDW
May 30th, 2012
3:01 pm
@Dusty…”Too bad liberals have such short memories”
No I have a long memory…while Duhbya was cutting taxes and running up the debt he was ignoring Richard Clarke’s plea to address the issue of Bin Laden. When he finally got around to having a meeting on the subject it was September 2001 a full 7 months after taking office.
Rafe Hollister- trying to save the Choom Gang
May 30th, 2012
3:01 pm
JDW
Hard-Working–Have you seen the vacation days through Feb of year 4…Bush 220 Obama about 100.
Well, for one Oblamer can’t stand being out of the spotlight. Can you image him in Crawford, TX. The man would not know which end of the ax to hit the brush with. Bush liked being out of the spotlight and was working while at Crawford. How many golf rounds did Oblamer play the first 3.5 years vice Bush. Well the Bush total was few, as he thought it to be in poor taste to play golf while the military was under hostile fire.
Dusty
May 30th, 2012
3:01 pm
JDW 2:52
You could have written the manual for unpretenious liberal propaganda as far as I can see. Most of your suggestions wouldn’t pass the grade in grammar school.
Are there any intellectuals left in the Democratic Party?
iggy
May 30th, 2012
3:03 pm
they are a damn sight improved from Duhbya’s Folly”
I seem to recall unemployment under W was approx 5% at which time Nasty Pelosi was screaming. Where is Nasty now…she hasnt uttered a word.
Obamas lowest unemployment number is 8%.
Rafe Hollister- trying to save the Choom Gang
May 30th, 2012
3:05 pm
Ethical–Only if you like torture as an interrogation device.
JDW
So, blowing a terrorist and occasionally their families and friends up with a drone strike, without proof or trial, is better than waterboarding them? A Democrat kindness I’m sure, not putting them through a water bath first.
Dusty
May 30th, 2012
3:07 pm
Now comes Richard Clarke, huh JDW?
You are corrrect. Bush did not take the advice of one man in the Security Department.
He took the conclusions of the CIA and British Intel.
Remember Prez Clinton? He knew about bin Laden and bombed an empty camp and a pharmaceutical plant. He must have listened to Richard Clarke.
Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!
May 30th, 2012
3:08 pm
“why is Romney so unpopular in Massachusetts? The ex-Mass Gov is down 25% against the President in Ma.”
Many reasons, DannyX. And as someone from that state who keeps a sharp eye on it, with relatives still living there, I know what is going on in Massachusetts.
First, to your point about Scott Brown’s election. It was a special election in 2010 against an incredibly weak and unpopular state Attorney General, Martha Coakley. Horrible campaigner, and was running against a very personable, handsome and engaging state senator in an election year that favored the GOP. As it was the margin was still in single digits, despite the advantages listed above.
Now to Romney. No matter what you may think (and certainly do not know), Massachusetts is a deep blue state, and only elects Republicans by the barest of margins and only if they are clearly moderate. They currently have NO U.S. representatives of the Republican persuasion. Their state house is populated by an 85% Democrat-controlled majority in both the House and the Senate (down from a high of 95% when Romney was governor) and most are hard-core leftists.
Romney was a moderate when he was first elected, and governed fairly moderately while in office. However, Massachusetts voters are notoriously fickle; the current Democrat governor, Deval Patrick, needed a Democrat drop-out, third-party candidate to get himself re-elected later in 2010. If not for the third-party candidate, he would have lost as he only got 48% of the vote.
So Massachusetts voters don’t really appreciate incumbency as a general rule (unless you’re Ted Kennedy).
Now, add into the mix that Romney had to run more to the right in the GOP primary this season, and he’s further away from his moderate roots than he was during his time as governor. Massachusetts voters will NOT support someone who is more right-wing than moderate, which is why his numbers are low right now. As he moderates more during the general campaign, and distances himself from the media and Democrat-generated social issues (which, if you look at the record were aimed more towards Santorum), his numbers will improve slightly, even if he won’t get enough to turn Massachusetts into a red state this November. I predict a 10 point to 12 point difference between him and Obama when all is said and done.
Grasshopper
May 30th, 2012
3:08 pm
Read my 2:47 DannyX
Or do you enjoy being a bore?
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
May 30th, 2012
3:10 pm
Well, Fox has finally nutted up and acted like an adult. Bought time they grew a pair…
Perhaps frustrated after years of pretending to be a “fair and balanced” news organization, Fox News threw out its usual playbook of merely skirting the line of journalistic ethics today and went all in with a four-minute video that can only be described as a political attack ad. The slickly-produced video, which Fox & Friends co-host Steve Doocy said had been “weeks” in the making, aired on the morning news show today after a brief introduction from the Fox crew. “Let’s talk a little bit about what the campaign slogan used to be for President Obama when he was a candidate, remember it was ‘hope and change,’” co-host Gretchen Carlson said, “so we decided to take a look back at the president’s first term to see if it lived up to ‘hope and change.’”
http://www.salon.com/2012/05/30/fox_news_cuts_obama_attack_ad/
Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!
May 30th, 2012
3:19 pm
And DannyX, the only reason why Scott Brown’s numbers are favorable (barely) at this time is that he’s running against blonde-haired, blue-eyed Elizabeth “Granny” Warren, otherwise known as Fauxcahontas or Lieawatha for her claims of Native American lineage and her plagiarism of recipes in the now-infamous cookbook – Pow Wow Chow.
She submitted a recipe for the well-known Oklahoma Cherokee dish of “Cold Omletes with crab meat” (not sure where Cherokee Indians in Oklahoma were able to find crabs, but she’s certain they did. . . Another recipe submitted was taken verbatim out of a Good Housekeeping magazine back in the ’70’s.
Add to that she makes over $350k per year from Harvard University teaching part-time, all while railing against the 1% which she and her husband are part of.
Don't Tread
May 30th, 2012
3:19 pm
I wonder what the statistic is for underemployed people in their “prime” earning years?
How about able bodied unemployed welfare recipients? (The socialists in government are not interested in reporting that statistic.)
Rafe Hollister- trying to save the Choom Gang
May 30th, 2012
3:20 pm
Finn
You are just not used to a Dem President being held accountable for the campaign promises he broke.
The alphabet news elites used to do it regularly with the GOP Presidents. I remember Dan Rather getting into a shouting match with GHWB over an issue Bush refused to answer correctly, according to what the media judged to be “the truth”. Ole Dan, the fabricator of records, was not exactly objective in his analysis.
JDW
May 30th, 2012
3:20 pm
@Dusty…”one man in the Security Department”
Educate yourself…the “one man” was the President’s Chair of the Counter-terrorism Security Group. The ONE MAN whose job it was to advise the President on such matters…he was right and Bush ignored him.
Dusty
May 30th, 2012
3:21 pm
Iggy
You bring to mind Nancy Pelosi (D). Where is she? Haven’t seen her endorsement of President Obama. She will probably send a couple of millions to help out.. OH, the “evil rich” so despised by liberals.
And Harry Reid, our Morman Democrat, is he about to apply for unemployment?
They are like MacArthur; politicians just fading away. Obama is next.
Rafe Hollister- trying to save the Choom Gang
May 30th, 2012
3:23 pm
Nancy Pelosi, circa 2007, unemployment below 6%, “where are the jobs, Mr President”?
Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!
May 30th, 2012
3:23 pm
So comparing and contrasting what was then to what is now is considered an attack ad, Finn?
What is Fox supposed to do, spout the DNC talking points like MSNBC and CNN do on a daily basis, or are they supposed to INFORM us of the differences made during Obama’s first term so that we can make up our own minds?
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
May 30th, 2012
3:25 pm
Romney is much like Bush.
Except for that whole cult follower thing? Of course some would consider fundamentalist christians cult followers too.
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
May 30th, 2012
3:28 pm
I didn’t know MSNBC had created an ad during an election year to run with the sole purpose of trying to oust a conservative?
Did I miss something?
Dusty
May 30th, 2012
3:30 pm
Poor JDW,
Clarke gave bad advice and Bush did not take it. As I mentioned, he took the advice of CIA & British Intel, the condensed work of two major organizations and not the conclusion of one man.
A smart idea in almost all circumstances.
Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!
May 30th, 2012
3:31 pm
“I didn’t know MSNBC had created an ad during an election year to run with the sole purpose of trying to oust a conservative?”
No, they just created an 18-hour lineup of opinion shows with the sole purpose of ensuring that conservatives lose elections.
So yes, you DID miss something (as usual).
The Staff of MSNBC
May 30th, 2012
3:33 pm
“I didn’t know MSNBC had created an ad during an election year to run with the sole purpose of trying to oust a conservative?”
The ad was called ‘Our Entire Prime Time Line-Up.’ You should check it out sometime!
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
May 30th, 2012
3:34 pm
Tiberius, you really can’t tell the difference between an advertisement and regular programming?
Guess not.
let me help:: You know those E-Trade babies? They aren’t part of that Desperate Housewives show you watch.
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
May 30th, 2012
3:38 pm
You know, if you folks really thing Romney has a chance to win this thing, you should place bets on the odds in Vegas right now before they start swinging in favor of him. Romney is still around 2:1.
HDB
May 30th, 2012
3:40 pm
Tiberius – Banned from Bookman’s and proud of it!
May 30th, 2012
2:47 pm
Have a counter for you! One person buying a $1M home actually spent LESS than 25 people spending %50,000 for a house! How?? VOLUME!! The quantity that someone in the middle class generates is greater than the quantities that the wealthy generate!! Granted, they spend at the top end…but the volume spent by the middle class surpasses those of the rich!1 That’s why the rich get richer…because of the VOLUME generated by the middle class!! Why did Henry Ford pay his workers as he did…..so they could AFFORD to buy a Model T…making Ford RICHER!!
Dusty
May 30th, 2012
3:40 pm
Sure, Finn,
People without the stable base of faith have long argued that heathenism is far better.. Kinda like “ignorance is bliss”. They ignore the great blessings given to all of us. Too self centered to be thankful.
Keep up your cult talk. It only demeans you as you try to demean others. That’s a shame.
Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!
May 30th, 2012
3:42 pm
Actually, I do know the difference, Finn. The so-called “ad” was about 2 minutes long. The regular programming at MSNBC is 18 hours long.
Was the so-called “ad” a bit over the top? Yes, it was. But is Martin Bashir and Lawrence O’Donnell spending hours denigrating the Mormon religion and painting Mitt Romney with agreeing to 100% of the smears considered over the top as well? You bet.
To summarize: We have 2 minutes of an ad-style review of the numbers Obama inherited vs. the numbers as they are today, compared with 18 hours EVERY SINGLE DAY on MSNBC bashing Republicans and conservatives.
This could only sound comparable to an idiot liberal.
Rafe Hollister- trying to save the Choom Gang
May 30th, 2012
3:44 pm
It is something to be proud of that Fox, all alone, can in effect stalemate the other news outlets combined. I think because “rational, thinking people” tend to gravitate toward a place where the news is more fair and balanced and liberals at least have a chance to express themselves. They like that a liberal may be vehemently opposed by the interviewer, but at least he is not out numbered three or four to one, like conservatives are on the other networks.
The other networks try to give the impression that conservatives are under represented in the real world and they could only find one to take on the panel of left wing experts assembled, all four of them.
Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!
May 30th, 2012
3:46 pm
“One person buying a $1M home actually spent LESS than 25 people spending %50,000 for a house!”
Here’s REALITY for you, HDB. There are NO $50,000 homes for sale (except for foreclosures right now). So you don’t get to play that fictional game, son.
And of course if the government policies foisted on the home markets by Democrat policies didn’t artificially inflate home prices to begin with, we maybe would have more $50,000 homes for everybody to buy.
HDB
May 30th, 2012
3:46 pm
Lil’ Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
May 30th, 2012
2:53 pm
And you do realize that those checks allow people to remain unemployed and unproductive?
———
Fixed. And yes, we do.
========================================================================Not in all cases, LBB….for many, an unemployment check is the stopgap that allows one to SURVIVE….as in paying BILLS, FOOD, SHELTER……
Conservatives aren’t seeing the entire picture….more of a case of selective amnesia……
iggy
May 30th, 2012
3:47 pm
Dusty. Yeah ole “Nasty” is one of those hated rich folks that owns a vineyard, etc.
A little about Mr and Mrs Nasty below. And OMG, she is making earnings from that stock market thing. Terrible.
SSHHH. Keep that under wraps!
“The first female Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi has an estimated net worth of $35.2 million as of 2011.Pelosi’s drastic growth, from an initial $21.7 million in 2009, is attributed to recent stock gains and smart investments. Her husband reported raking in $1 million to $5 million in 2010 from a sale of Apple stocks.
The couple also has a commercial property in San Francisco and a home in St. Helena, Calif., each valued between $5 million and $25 million. She also has a stake in some valuable residential real estate in Sacramento.
All rank-and-file members of Congress received salaries of $174,000 last year. As speaker in 2010, Pelosi was paid $223,500, and House and Senate majority and minority leaders garnered $193,400.”
HDB
May 30th, 2012
3:50 pm
Tiberius – Banned from Bookman’s and proud of it!
May 30th, 2012
3:46 pm
Tibby….many contractors won’t BUILD a house at $50K….it’s the MARKET FORCES at work…a conservative paradigm!!
There ARE houses on the market that are not foreclosures that are selling for $50K…several in my neighborhood, as a mater of fact…..getting the LENDERS to spend is the issue here!!
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
May 30th, 2012
3:51 pm
Exactly correct, HDB.
These folks see the big price tag of the corporate jet but don’t realize only a few people buy those things and those who do buy them normally don’t need more than one at a time.
But these folks also can’t comprehend that if I make $1 million a year and pay 15% in taxes ($150,000) and another person is making $100K a year and paying 25% in taxes ($25,000), I’m not the one getting screwed even though my tax bill is $125,000 higher than the other guys tax bill.
I have 85% of my income to spend any way I want. The other guy only has 75% of his income to spend any way he wants.
Rafe Hollister- trying to save the Choom Gang
May 30th, 2012
3:53 pm
http://www.cnbc.com/id/47614988
20,000 people apply for 890 jobs at Alabama auto plant. Thank you President Barry Oblamer, you are right the economy is getting better. I can hear our deal leader now, “If it was not for our handling of the economy and our Stimulus bill, heck, there could have been 50,000 looking for these jobs. Vote for me, THINGS COULD BE WORSE!
Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!
May 30th, 2012
3:54 pm
“many contractors won’t BUILD a house at $50K….it’s the MARKET FORCES at work”
Yes, HDB, the government interference market forces at work.
Loki
May 30th, 2012
3:54 pm
I have not read all the comments, but are there any statistics of how many skilled jobs are unfilled due to lack of qualified workers? I hear lots of anecdotal evidence, but nothing reliable.
Is there a substantial gap?
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
May 30th, 2012
3:54 pm
Tiberius at 3:46,
Tiberius, you really can’t see past the actual example numbers to see the point HDB is trying to make, can you? Please tell me you can actually comprehend the point being made?
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
May 30th, 2012
3:57 pm
HDB, just raise your $50k number to $200k and the results better exemplify the point you are making.
It’s the math that gets them!