Share of working-age Americans with a job is the lowest in decades
In the debate about whether the headline unemployment rate tells the whole story about the labor market, here’s another data point indicating there’s more than meets the eye. From the Washington Post:
The proportion of Americans in their prime working years who have jobs is smaller than it has been at any time in the 23 years before the recession, according to federal statistics, reflecting the profound and lasting effects that the downturn has had on the nation’s economic prospects.
By this measure, the jobs situation has improved little in recent years. The percentage of workers between the ages of 25 and 54 who have jobs now stands at 75.7 percent, just a percentage point over what it was at the downturn’s worst, according to federal statistics.
Before the recession the proportion hovered at 80 percent.
The story explains once more why the headline unemployment rate, which has held steady or fallen for 11 straight months, doesn’t paint the whole picture. Short answer: It’s about the continued problem of people giving up searching for work and taking themselves, statistically speaking, out of the work force — leading the unemployment rate to fall at a faster pace than job creation is rising.
But even this stat for 25- to 54-year-olds doesn’t tell the whole story. Further down in the article, we read:
The falloff has been sharpest for men, for whom the proportion had been on a slow decline before the recession. The percentage of prime-age men who are working is smaller now than it has been in any time before the recession, going all the way back to 1948, according to federal statistics. The proportion of prime-age women is at a low not seen since 1988.
That’s right: The proportion of prime-age men with a job is the smallest in at least 64 years. I say “at least” because 1948 is as far back as federal labor statistics go.
In the immediate future, this reality means the job market will have a larger impact on President Obama’s re-election chances than the steadily declining unemployment rate would suggest. Until participation in the labor force readjusts to historically normal levels, the unemployment rate doesn’t tell us as much as it once did. So the usual measures of how an incumbent does when the jobless rate is above or below X percent won’t do prognosticators as much good.
More broadly, however, this speaks to the issues Charles Murray highlights in his recent book, “Coming Apart.” Murray documents the dramatic divergence in employment between what he calls “the new upper class” and “the new lower class” — and argues that government programs that foster a culture of dependence and lack of personal responsibility have enabled this joblessness among men who otherwise ought to be working.
That broader context of the competing political ideologies in our country makes it all the more worthwhile for these depressing employment trends to be at the center of this year’s presidential campaign.
– By Kyle Wingfield
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240 comments Add your comment
DannyX
May 30th, 2012
1:35 pm
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/as-massachusetts-governor-romneys-record-on-jobs-was-unremarkable/2012/02/06/gIQABzEfxQ_story.html
“”But Andrew Sum, a professor of economics at Northeastern University, says the unemployment rate fell only because people were leaving the workforce in droves during Romney’s term. Just one state had a bigger drop in its labor force during the same period, according to Sum — that was Louisiana, which was hit by Hurricane Katrina in 2005.
“There was not one measure where the state did well under his term in office. We were below average and often near the bottom,” said Sum, who is also the director of Northeastern’s Center for Labor Market Studies.”"
Again Grasshopper, why is Romney so unpopular in Massachusetts, he was their governor for 4 years?
Rockerbabe
May 30th, 2012
1:37 pm
Hey Kyle: blame it on the private sector and the GOP and their push to public service jobs at all levels of government. The fastest growing sector of the unemployed, is the former employees of the various governments in our country. YOU SHOULD BE HAPPY! Less government! So stop complaining.
Does anyone know of a good interstate bank? Bank of America is shipping american jobs in their call centers overseas. I am sick of this. . .no wonder President Obama is having such a hard time. The private sector is determined to “stick it” to the American public by taking our jobs away and giving them to overseas folks. Can’t blame that on Obama, but you will try.
DannyX
May 30th, 2012
1:37 pm
“What part of MA is a very blue state do you not understand??”
You mean the same state that elected Republican Romney governor just a few years back? The same state that just elected Republican Scott Brown senator?
iggy
May 30th, 2012
1:42 pm
The employee expense ratio, mainly caused by govt regulations, is one reason why employers ship jobs overseas.
Jefferson
May 30th, 2012
1:46 pm
Kyle, do you see differences between President Bush and Romney ? They look the same AND their policies will have the same results.
md
May 30th, 2012
1:50 pm
“You mean the same state that elected Republican Romney governor just a few years back? The same state that just elected Republican Scott Brown senator?”
Yes…..that state. The one with a very blue legislature. If one wants to give Obama a free pass over the last 3.5 years with 2 years of dem control, then pinning the MA legislatures actions on Romney is quite the stretch indeed.
And it must speak volumes about Romney and Brown for having been elected in the first place. You are aware that of the 10 MA Representatives, all 10 are democrat….right?? And the other Senator is democrat….as is the Governor.
As are 36 of the 40 State senators and 128 of the 160 state reps………
I’d say it must have been a miracle for Romney even to be considered……..all those dems must have seen something they liked………
JDW
May 30th, 2012
1:50 pm
@Kyle…”You apparently assume the sentiment toward Bush will automatically transfer to Romney. I say that’s not necessarily a good assumption.”
For the most part yes I think in the final analysis a large number of people will transfer that sentiment. In part due to the fact that I, nor anyone else, have yet to really find a tangible difference between the positions of the two. By the time the stories have been told I believe it will be clear that Romney represents a return to those very policies that landed us where we are today.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
May 30th, 2012
1:50 pm
Did you vote for Obozo to not only continue the negative trends caused by the Dodd-Frank recession, but to make things worse?
Why do Democrats hate America?
Hillbilly D
May 30th, 2012
1:51 pm
There is one thing about robotics and shipping jobs overseas that people overlook. Take GM for example. Back in 1970, GM had nearly 400,000 hourly employees. Those employees were built-in customers. They and usually their immediate families and sometimes more distant family and friends would buy GM cars. By 2009, that number of hourly employees had been reduced by about 90%. During that same time, GM’s market share has plummeted. Of course, that’s not the only thing that decreased their market share but you have to think that to a degree, they threw the baby out with the bath water.
One of the major reasons that Henry Ford paid his workers a high wage, for the time, when he came out with the Model T, was so they could afford to buy his cars.
Grasshopper
May 30th, 2012
1:51 pm
Did you read the entire article you linked Danny? There were many explanations as to the employment picture in Mass. during that time period.
And if you are saying that it is Romney’s fault that so many people in Mass. dropped out of the labor market during his tenure, then you must also be saying that it is Obama’s fault that so many in the US are dropping out of the labor market during his tenure.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
May 30th, 2012
1:52 pm
For the most part yes I think in the final analysis a large number of people will transfer that sentiment.
——–
That’s just plain ignorant.
Is that all the critical thinking skills our public education system can instill in you morons?
md
May 30th, 2012
1:54 pm
“One of the major reasons that Henry Ford paid his workers a high wage, for the time, when he came out with the Model T, was so they could afford to buy his cars.”
A totally different era…..good ole Henry didn’t have much global competition…..making cars even cheaper than he was.
md
May 30th, 2012
1:56 pm
“Romney represents a return to those very policies that landed us where we are today.”
Those policies weren’t restricted to one party…….so we should be good to go with Romney.
DannyX
May 30th, 2012
1:58 pm
So Grasshopper, you have no earthly idea why Romney is so unpopular in Massachusetts? No explanation at all? Nothing?
md
May 30th, 2012
2:04 pm
“So Grasshopper, you have no earthly idea why Romney is so unpopular in Massachusetts? No explanation at all? Nothing?”
It’s basic common sense……a State full of dems likes the incumbent dem President……….
stands for decibels
May 30th, 2012
2:05 pm
getting everything he wanted from Congress for the first two
ha ha ha.
you funny.
JDW
May 30th, 2012
2:05 pm
@Dusty…”You better look up the definition of “improving”. Methinks thee are a bit confused.”
Methinks you are in denial but for grins and giggles….
Improving (present participle of im·prove) (Verb) Make or become better. For example:
Job creation numbers are steadily improving. Over the five months from December 2011 to April 2012 the economy created an average of 205,000 new jobs each month. Contrast that with the period from December 2008 to April 2009 when job losses averaged 595,000 a month and only a partisan fool could deny that things have gotten better.
I could do one for GDP growth, credit availability and many other data points but you get the idea.
JDW
May 30th, 2012
2:08 pm
@LBB…”Is that all the critical thinking skills our public education system can instill in you morons?”
Actually I think most people will get the idea pretty easily…you however are an exception.
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
May 30th, 2012
2:08 pm
how big do you folks think those unemployment checks are?
And you do realize that those checks allow people to “buy” stuff with the funds they provide? That spend contributes to the economy as well.
JDW
May 30th, 2012
2:09 pm
@LBB…”Why do Democrats hate America?”
They don’t. We are however tasked with the unplesantness of saving America from the misguided Right.
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
May 30th, 2012
2:11 pm
the Dodd-Frank recession?
Really?
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
May 30th, 2012
2:12 pm
JDW 2:09
Spot on!
md
May 30th, 2012
2:12 pm
“how big do you folks think those unemployment checks are?”
About the same as a minimum wage job…….one would be naive to think some aren’t taking advantage of the system. I know quite a few personally that are from 2 person households and are looking at it as a 2 year break to stay home with the kids while the other works……just another loop-hole being utilized by the masses.
md
May 30th, 2012
2:14 pm
“And you do realize that those checks allow people to “buy” stuff with the funds they provide? That spend contributes to the economy as well.”
As if the folks it was taken from wouldn’t “buy” stuff too??
The Fresh Prince of Bill Ayers
May 30th, 2012
2:15 pm
and argues that government programs that foster a culture of dependence and lack of personal responsibility have enabled this joblessness among men who otherwise ought to be working
Kyle, I would say this is a reach. Manufacturing and I.T jobs have been shipped overseas, turning a blind eye to 18 million illegal immigrants have taken a larger toll. Many unemployed voters are stuck pulling the lever either for a guy they know wants amnesty, or a guy that more represents big business and job outsourcing. My vote will come down to whom I feel will be more competent at solution based politics. It will be an easy choice.
Hillbilly D
May 30th, 2012
2:17 pm
A totally different era…..good ole Henry didn’t have much global competition…..making cars even cheaper than he was.
That’s true but we also used to have import tariffs.
Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!
May 30th, 2012
2:17 pm
”But Andrew Sum, a professor of economics at Northeastern University, says the unemployment rate fell only because people were leaving the workforce in droves during Romney’s term.”
So people leaving the workforce in droves during Romney’s term = bad. People leaving the workforce in droves during Obama’s term = he gets a pass.
Got it, DannyX.
Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!
May 30th, 2012
2:19 pm
Oh, and talk about robotic?
Have you read any post from an Obama-bot on this blog? Not an independent thought in their little heads.
md
May 30th, 2012
2:19 pm
“or a guy that more represents big business and job outsourcing.”
For those on the left that bash big business, I would like to point out that it takes big business making lots of profits to carry the weight of big government……..a double edged sword.
md
May 30th, 2012
2:22 pm
“That’s true but we also used to have import tariffs.”
Yes, we did…..but so did everybody else. I see that one canceling itself out these days……except in those few countries such as China that still manipulates the system.
But we are the ones still doing the consuming……and it is always a choice.
Rafe Hollister- trying to save the Choom Gang
May 30th, 2012
2:23 pm
It took four posts before Bush was blamed! The man left Washington four years ago and he is responsible for the lowest percentage of working eligible folks with jobs. We spent 1 Trillion on the stimulus to put people back to work, that was after Bush BTW, and probably a Trillion on Green Energy Jobs, what happened to those.
All the while we can’t build the Keystone pipeline and we can’t seem to get drilling back on track in the Gulf after Oblamer rigged the study he commissioned to shut down the rigs. He laid off 50,000 military men, now looking for a job in the private sector. He has discouraged drilling for oil/nat gas on federal lands. He has put the coal burning electric generating plants out of business, therefore eliminating hundreds of thousands of coal jobs. He will not let us develop our oil sands in western states. He has attacked private equity firms and Wallstreet causing them to retreat and regroup rather than expand and hire. His TSA thugs have made it so unpleasant to fly that folks are staying home rather than travel, eliminating many tourist related jobs.
In spite of all this, it is Bush’s fault.
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
May 30th, 2012
2:26 pm
<iAs if the folks it was taken from wouldn’t “buy” stuff too??
To apply this thinking to a simplistic example:
So, if they both had apples on hand, a person with lots of money would eat more apples in a day than a person with little money?
A person with lots of money would eat more lunches in a day than a person with little money?
If they both have toilet paper, toothpaste and bars of soap on hand, you are saying a person with lots of money uses more rolls of toilet paper, more squeezes of toothpaste, more bars of soap in a single day than a person with little money?
This is why you folks are so confused on the fair tax issue and can’t comprehend that the true job creators are the middle class consumers.
Dusty
May 30th, 2012
2:27 pm
JDW,
You and Finn are so predictable.
You, for example, think if someone makes a dime one day and the next day a quarter, the economy has greatly improved. Ah yes!
And Finn thinks if everyone were on unemployment, spending all that minimum amount of money would really improve the economy. But if they were working at full wage, wellllllll…. they couldn’t be happy and dependent as they were before with taxpayers supporting them. .
Yep, that is how we are making the “great” imiprovements. Passing out taxpayer money to improve the economy! Oh, how liberals hate the curse of work!
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
May 30th, 2012
2:28 pm
According to Rafe, the day after Obama assumed office, everything Kyle is writing about went into effect. The day before, I suppose, unemployment was 4 or 5%?
DannyX
May 30th, 2012
2:31 pm
“So people leaving the workforce in droves during Romney’s term = bad. People leaving the workforce in droves during Obama’s term = he gets a pass. ”
Actually you should address that question to Kyle, put it this way,
People leaving the workforce in droves during Obama’s term = bad. People were leaving the workforce in droves during Romney’s term, he’s the one us republicans picked to fix the problem.
Btw Tiberius, why is Romney so unpopular in Massachusetts? The ex-Mass Gov is down 25% against the President in Ma.
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
May 30th, 2012
2:31 pm
dusty, I didn’t say we need more people on unemployment. What I was saying is that at any given time a certain percentage of the population will be unemployed. For those who are in that situation, those checks aren’t a complete waste to the rest of us as a whole.
JDW
May 30th, 2012
2:33 pm
@MD…”I would like to point out that it takes big business making lots of profits to carry the weight of big government”
Actually one of the problems is that they don’t really carry thier load. Taxes as a % of revenue are about as follows:
Payroll Taxes 40%
Income Taxes 42%
Corporate Taxes 9%
Other Taxes 6%
Excise Taxes 3%
Revenue from the corporate income taxes has fallen from between 5 and 6 percent of GDP in the early 1950s to 1.3 percent of GDP in 2010.
http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/briefing-book/background/numbers/revenue.cfm
Finn McCool (The System isn't Broken; It's Fixed)
May 30th, 2012
2:34 pm
All it takes is for your boss or CEO to make one bone-headed move and you could be out the door – possibly spending a week or more on unemployment. I’m glad we have a system (we pay into!!!!) for when that crap happens. Kinda like being glad you have insurance when a drunk t-bones you at an intersection.
Rafe Hollister- trying to save the Choom Gang
May 30th, 2012
2:35 pm
Kyle, talking about inaccurate unemployment figures, which they are, what about the inaccurate inflation numbers. I know the Consumer Price Index has been massaged and manipulated to death and it did not start with Barry. I believe Housing Prices are included and those are through the floor, so everything else will have to increase by 50% to move the needle. If rent were included rather than housing prices we would be looking at what we are really experiencing, probably something like 8-10% per year.
Getting to where I do not trust any numbers that originate in a government agency.
JDW
May 30th, 2012
2:38 pm
@Dusty…”You, for example, think if someone makes a dime one day and the next day a quarter, the economy has greatly improved. Ah yes!”
Might I suggest 1st grade math as a refresher. My daughter just completed it and has learned that a quarter does indeed represent an improvement over a dime.
Might you like more? Sure! However that doesn’t mean I want to elect the guy that wants to do the same things that cut my income to a dime in the first place….that would be…well…insane.
grated
May 30th, 2012
2:40 pm
This economy is the Bush Legacy, and it reveals just how bad a force the GOP is. Obama is the perfect man for the job of President, and without him we’d be in the stone age by now for sure.
Trump is a great entertainer, but he can’t sing. Remember when he sang “green acres” on Television a while back? Who talked him into that? What a total disaster. Honestly.
Romney is unelectable. He has a deer in headlights look that cant be overcome and during the debates, his campaign will collapse. Obama landslide fo sho.
Dusty
May 30th, 2012
2:40 pm
Rafe, @ 2:23
Feel encouraged! I see that many people think Romney is much like Bush. The more I hear that the more I like Romney.
Having an honest, strong, dependable, patriotic, hard-working, ethical president again will certainly be refreshing. The country will be invigorated and move forward.
No more presidential Hope & Change. Just strong reliability and pride in America. That will be Romney.
Rafe Hollister- trying to save the Choom Gang
May 30th, 2012
2:40 pm
Finn
Finn unemployment rate Jan 2009—–7.6%
Oblamer hopes to someday get back there!!!!
JDW
May 30th, 2012
2:41 pm
@LBB…Not only do Democrats not hate America…we can spell it…
http://www.cnn.com/2012/05/30/tech/mobile/amercia-romney-iphone-app/index.html?hpt=hp_t2
Mandingo
May 30th, 2012
2:42 pm
“and argues that government programs that foster a culture of dependence and lack of personal responsibility have enabled this joblessness among men who otherwise ought to be working.”
Help me understand Kyle, What goverment propram for men are you alluding too Kyle ?????
DannyX
May 30th, 2012
2:42 pm
“Feel encouraged! I see that many people think Romney is much like Bush. The more I hear that the more I like Romney.”
Dusty, I’m sure Romney would love to have Bush out on the campaign trail with him! Right??
Hillbilly D
May 30th, 2012
2:44 pm
I know the Consumer Price Index has been massaged and manipulated to death
Good point. I keep track of my non-discretionary spending each year and it’s gone up 6-7% for each of the last 2 years. I think most of the statistics are manipulated to benefit whoever is in office at the time. It’s been that way for many years and I don’t expect it to change.
Dusty
May 30th, 2012
2:46 pm
JDW
You missed the point. Neither a dime nor a quarter is “good” money. You address a poor economy as better. It may be “better” but it is still not “good”. Certainly nothing to brag about. Just ask your daughter..
Grasshopper
May 30th, 2012
2:47 pm
“So Grasshopper, you have no earthly idea why Romney is so unpopular in Massachusetts? No explanation at all? Nothing?”
This would be about the best answer I could give you DannyX.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/114016/state-states-political-party-affiliation.aspx
If it is too difficult for you to understand, there is not much I can do for you.
Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!
May 30th, 2012
2:47 pm
“This is why you folks are so confused on the fair tax issue and can’t comprehend that the true job creators are the middle class consumers.”
Rich people buy lots more things than poor and middle class people do, Finn. They have the money to entertain large groups of friends (more food and material costs) they buy more luxury (high ticket) items and they buy multiple homes and cars – all of which are taxed under the fair tax.
So you not only don’t understand the fair tax, you don’t understand the economy and the consumer as well.