2012 Tuesday: Should we worry about the primary losses of moderates?
For all the talk of how America is following in the footsteps of debt-riddled Greece, here is one way our politics is charting a very different course: We are not waiting to reach the very edge of the abyss before moving our parties away from the center.
One of the big stories from today’s primaries, which for the most part have been rendered less than front-page news outside the states holding them any given day, will be whether longtime Indiana Sen. Dick Lugar survives a challenge from tea-party favorite and State Treasurer Richard Mourdock. A recent poll (there haven’t been many of them) suggests Lugar’s time is up.
The headlines will be about the tea party throwing out a respected member of the D.C. establishment in a fit of ideologically pure pique. Yet, increasingly this kind of result is dog-bites-man news — for both parties.
Last month, Pennsylvania Democrats threw out a pair of “Blue Dog Democrats” from the U.S. House. The Blue Dogs, who tried to push laws such as Obamacare in a more moderate direction when Democrats held all the levers of power in 2009-10, have gone from a peak of 54 members in those years to a projected 23 when the 113th Congress convenes next year. Most of those losses have come at the hands of Republican challengers in general elections, or via retirements. But as the New York Times reported about the Pennsylvania races:
The ouster of the Democratic incumbents — and the tough primaries being waged against some House Republicans — suggest that redistricting ultimately is going to send more liberal Democrats and more conservative Republicans to the House.
That may be true in U.S. House races, where voters can be moved around during redistricting, but we’ve also seen changes in Senate races that cover entire states.
Lugar would be one example, with the list of ousted Republicans also including Bob Bennett of Utah in 2010 and, perhaps, Utah’s Orrin Hatch this year. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska lost her primary in 2010, only to win re-election as a third-party candidate write-in Republican [note: the foregoing text has been corrected -- KW] in the general election. So did Connecticut’s Joe Lieberman in 2006, whom Democrats punished for his support of the Iraq war just six years after appearing on the party’s national ticket as its vice-presidential nominee. Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas had to go to a runoff to remain the Democratic nominee for Senate in 2010, eventually losing her seat to a Republican that November.
On the other hand, GOP voters chose as their nominee the man who, with the exception of Jon Huntsman, was considered the most moderate person in the field — even if the Obama campaign will now spend months trying to convince you Mitt Romney is a dangerous extremist. So the move away from moderation has its limits.
When primary voters in both major parties punish moderate incumbents, the idea seems to be that they want to elect more people truly committed to the cause. But can the cause ever be advanced if the other side is equally committed to electing people determined to block it? Can either party, moving away from the center, elect enough of its own members to push through an agenda that will be uniformly opposed by the other party? The huge Democratic gains of 2006 and 2008 were not typical of our electoral history — and their overreach afterward was sharply rebuked by the voters in 2010. Can the Republicans make a similar follow-up gain this year as they are also moving away from the center? Does the pendulum really swing that fast? And why wouldn’t it just keep reversing course rather than staying in your preferred direction for very long?
How this trend plays out in the long run is anyone’s guess. My guess is that, sooner than later, the electorate will tire of the pendulum moving so far, so fast. But there are two recent examples from Europe that suggest the mushy middle doesn’t necessarily work, either.
The most recent one is, as advertised above, from Greece. Sunday’s elections there were a smackdown of the country’s leading center-left and center-right parties, both of which backed the bailout-and-austerity package from Greece’s European neighbors. Together, the two main parties won just 32 percent of the vote — down from 77 percent in the last elections a few years ago. The largest party won less than 19 percent (although it will have a larger share of the seats in parliament).
More pertinent, however, is the nature of the parties that ate into their vote totals. The second-place party is called — this is the translation of the party’s name in Greek, not my editorial comment on its policies — the Coalition of the Radical Left. The Communist Party won 9 percent to finish fifth, and a neo-Nazi party (known as the “Golden Dawn” party) won 7 percent to wind up sixth. Together, the Communists and the neo-Nazis will have almost one-sixth of the seats in the Greek parliament. Two brand-new parties took another one-sixth of the vote.
Think about that: A collection of Communists, neo-Nazis and two parties that had never competed before managed to equal the votes of the country’s two longest-standing parties. If that’s not a rebuke of the establishment, I don’t know what is.
Another anti-centric example is Northern Ireland. For years, centrist parties representing the two opposing viewpoints there — remaining in the United Kingdom, or separating to join the Republic of Ireland — tried to make deals. It wasn’t until the two extremes on each side took a stab at working together that power-sharing under the Good Friday accord actually worked.
Of course, we are not in the dire straits of either Greece, which has already had one technical default on its debt, or Northern Ireland, which suffered decades of self-inflicted terrorism. Nor have we seen if either of those examples yields good results in the long run. (One of history’s greatest — and most humble! — foreign correspondents reported from Northern Ireland just before power-sharing began there, questioning whether two extremes could truly co-exist for very long.)
The jury is still out here, too.
– By Kyle Wingfield
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202 comments Add your comment
Oblama
May 9th, 2012
8:52 am
All your whining about the Repubs being run by radicals is absurd. Just look at WHAT is running the Dems. Certainly you would not honestly label Nanny Pelosi and Harry Reid as moderates based on their voting record. Socialists now run the far left leaning Dem Party. There are ZERO moderates in the Dem Party. In the news today – North Carolina becomes the 30th state to pass a constitutional amendment against homosexual marriage. Oblama will not give his views on homosexual marriage – saying they are still evolving. Get a backbone Prez – even if it costs you votes. We know you are left of center and right in the middle of the Nanny Pelosi’s of this D.C. fantasy world. Oblama is our 1st “Reality Show” President….. also known as “The Great Divider”
You Can Say What You Say But You Are What You Are
May 9th, 2012
8:57 am
@I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin…
May 9th, 2012
7:19 am
obozo “saved” Government Motors!
Thanks to a “sweetheart” tax deal worked out between General Motors and government, the Detroit auto manufacturer won’t have to pay $45.4 billion in taxes on future profits, according to recent reports from the Wall Street Journal and CNN Money.
“Saved” it with your money.
This is what defines an economic genius on Planet Moonbat, take other people’s money, give it to one company and claim success.
Aren’t we all impressed?
************************************************************
obozo “saved” Government Motors!
MITT WITT “SAVED” Government Motors, from his mouth to God’s ear.
heeheeheeheeheeheeheeheeheeheeheeheeheeheehee
Romney Now Takes Credit for Rebound
Romney Takes Credit for Auto Industry Turnaround, Reignites Bailout Debate
Mitt Romney Takes Credit For The Auto Bailout. Say, What?
Opposed to auto bailout, Romney now takes credit for rebound
Romney: “I’ll take a lot of credit” for auto industry revival
Romney Wants Credit For Obama Auto Bailout – YouTube
I Report (-: You Whine ) ARE YOU IMPRESSED WITH MITT WITT FOR SAVING
GENERAL MOTORS?
heeheeheeheeheeheeheeheeheeheeheehehhee
You Can Say What You Say But You Are What You Are
May 9th, 2012
9:01 am
@Oblama
May 9th, 2012
8:52 am
Oblama will not give his views on homosexual marriage – saying they are still evolving. Get a backbone Prez – even if it costs you votes.
*********************************************************************************
MITT WITT will NOT give his tax returns.
Get a BACKBONE MITT WITT – even if it costs you votes.
heeheeheeheeheeheeheeheeheeheeheeheeheee
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
May 9th, 2012
9:04 am
Glenn, pretending to want more growth is just a fig leaf meant to cover up what they really want–less responsibility for maintaining fiscal prudence.
You might convince me otherwise if you can tell me what the new pro-growth policies are.
You Can Say What You Say But You Are What You Are
May 9th, 2012
9:13 am
@TruthBe
May 8th, 2012
11:08 pm
Obama has to go. America cannot afford a second term of this dishonest liar of a president in Obama. ALL Americans that love your Country need to vote this poor excuse of a president out of office. The dog catcher would make a better president than Obama. At lease the dog catcher loves his Country. Black Americans YOU need to get the little black chip off your shoulder and vote against Obama as well for the good of your Country.
************************************************************************************
DISHONEST LIAR?
DISHONEST LIAR?
MITT WITT IS A LIAR’S LIAR. NOW THE WORLD KNOWS.
MITT WITT “SAVED” Government Motors, from his mouth to God’s ear.
heeheeheeheeheeheeheeheeheeheeheeheeheeheehee
Romney Now Takes Credit for Rebound
Romney Takes Credit for Auto Industry Turnaround, Reignites Bailout Debate
Mitt Romney Takes Credit For The Auto Bailout. Say, What?
Opposed to auto bailout, Romney now takes credit for rebound
Romney: “I’ll take a lot of credit” for auto industry revival
Romney Wants Credit For Obama Auto Bailout
BE CAREFUL OF THE STONES YOU THROW.
heeheeheeheeheeheeheeheeheee
carlosgvv
May 9th, 2012
9:15 am
Kyle, imagine that the president was a centrist Democrat or Republican. Then imagine that the overwhelming majority in the House and Senate were centrist Democrats or Republicans. I’m virtually certain we would all be much better off.
Glenn
May 9th, 2012
9:17 am
Barry
Why do I need to convince you of anything ?. Hollande is a socialist that ran on more growth & less austerity & was elected . Obviously it would be around more government spending . Use the google Barry .
You Can Say What You Say But You Are What You Are
May 9th, 2012
9:20 am
@TruthBe
May 8th, 2012
11:08 pm
Obama has to go. America cannot afford a second term of this dishonest liar of a president in Obama. ALL Americans that love your Country need to vote this poor excuse of a president out of office. The dog catcher would make a better president than Obama. At lease the dog catcher loves his Country. Black Americans YOU need to get the little black chip off your shoulder and vote against Obama as well for the good of your Country.
**********************************************************************************
WHITE Americans YOU need to get the BIG WHITE CHIP OFF your shoulder and VOTE for
OBAMA and NOT THE HABITUAL LIAR MITT WITT.
Mitt Romney Takes Credit For The Auto Bailout. Say, What?
NYTimes
Op-Ed Contributor
LET DETROIT GO BANKRUPT
By MITT ROMNEY
Published: November 18, 2008
heeheeheeheeheeheeheeheeheeheeheeheeeheee
Oblama
May 9th, 2012
9:33 am
Dems have redefined “moderate”…… now means middle of the “far left”.
Just saying..
May 9th, 2012
9:38 am
Congrats to the Indiana GOP stalwarts who tossed out their incumbent Senator last night. No doubt 100% of his voters will support the Republican nominee in November.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
May 9th, 2012
9:39 am
Newsflash, Glenn. More government spending is not a pro-growth policy. See “Greece”.
Next!
Oblama
May 9th, 2012
9:41 am
synonym for moron = Joe Biden
Glenn
May 9th, 2012
9:43 am
Never said I agreed or disagreed with the French elections Barry . Just found it interesting .I would love to see you debate Hollande , the pro growth socialist . I even love typing it . I almost look at the divide in this country as similar to Europe . The difference is outside currency they are different countries .
Oblama
May 9th, 2012
9:45 am
What’s worse than an Oblama in office? I pray that Oblama remains in good health as his replacement would be (gasp!) Joe Biden.
Oblama
May 9th, 2012
9:48 am
Huh? When did Europe become a country Glenn? Did you go to the “Joe Biden School of Geography” ?
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
May 9th, 2012
9:53 am
Glenn, I like typing “pro-growth socialist” too…it makes me laugh!
Oblama
May 9th, 2012
9:55 am
This election is about the economy, jobs and the alarming multi trillion dollar Fed debt and how to reduce it. It’s not about class warfare/ race warfare/ sex warfare/ victim warfare/ age warfare/ etc., etc. etc. as Oblama is trying to misdirect it with his smoke and mirrors strategy. Dems have no real plan or clue of how to reduce this crushing debt. Time for CHANGE. Time for the Nanny Pelosi Party to GO. Timer for intelligence and common sense. That leaves out Harry Reid, Nanny Pelosi and Joe Biden. Time to fire the “Great Divider” in Chief.
Glenn
May 9th, 2012
9:56 am
Read the last line Oblama
Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!
May 9th, 2012
9:58 am
“Kyle, imagine that the president was a centrist Democrat or Republican. Then imagine that the overwhelming majority in the House and Senate were centrist Democrats or Republicans. I’m virtually certain we would all be much better off.”
We did try that. It’s called GWB’s second term. How’d that work out for ya?
Oblama
May 9th, 2012
10:02 am
The only thing socialists grow is DEBT. Get it Glenn? Socialists grow debt and big government – not the economy. Greece is a prime example of a socialist BAILOUT economy.
Oblama
May 9th, 2012
10:06 am
Definition of the new Dem moderate…… middle of the road socialist …. which does not exist.
carlosgvv
May 9th, 2012
10:07 am
Tiberius – 9:58
If you think George W. Bush and the Republicans in his second term were centrists, you are even more ignorant than I thought.
Oblama
May 9th, 2012
10:11 am
Europe is a continent – not a nation. Why do I have to explain this to you? Because of our great public education system of course.
Glenn
May 9th, 2012
10:11 am
Oblama you must not be a proponent of pro growth socialism ? Actually what you just typed is pretty silly . No offense . China is banking most of the wests debt . Oh except Norway , Finland , & Sweden . Socialist countries that have a balanced budget . You do know China’s banking is state run right ?
Oblama
May 9th, 2012
10:12 am
Nanny Pelosi went to school on the short bus.
Oblama
May 9th, 2012
10:16 am
Pro growth socialism is an oxymoron and China is communist run. What does that have to do with Europe. China is a country. Europe is a continent. Look it up.
Oblama
May 9th, 2012
10:20 am
There is not a single country of any importance that has a current balanced budget … that includes socialist countries. Japan is second to China in owning the U.S.A.’s bonds (debt). Sweden? Come on….. you made a funny?
Just saying..
May 9th, 2012
10:21 am
Oblama
May 9th, 2012
8:52 am: “…there are ZERO moderates in the Dem Party.
Which is why they hold the Senate and the Presidency, obviously.
Oblama
May 9th, 2012
10:24 am
Oblama is like going all in with a deuce seven off suit and hoping you hit a full house. He’s our 1st “Reality Show” President.
Glenn
May 9th, 2012
10:26 am
Yes Europe is a continent . Thats why I mentioned the difference between us and Europe is they are several countries . The idea of you using short bus in reference to others is comical .
Oblama
May 9th, 2012
10:30 am
Just saying – Glad you admit there are no longer any “real” moderates in the Dem Party as most of them were voted out and replaced with Repubs. However, the Dems currently OCCUPY the White House and Senate because “W” tried to be a moderate and failed. Moderates are not popular right now – on either side.
Oblama
May 9th, 2012
10:32 am
Short bus is comical and Nanny Pelosi is a sad joke.
Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!
May 9th, 2012
10:33 am
Yeah, carlos, ’cause increasing our debt via social programs is such a conservative idea.
Oblama
May 9th, 2012
10:37 am
I am for a balanced budget amendment to the Constitution …. like Barney Fife said ” Nip this out of control spending in the bud”. Terms limits and a balanced budget amendment will restore order to the people that vote and not the Fed government that thinks it is the boss.
Terrence
May 9th, 2012
10:38 am
The French just elected a socialist president because they want more growth . What am I to make of that ?
Misguided fools.
Hollande thinks slugs are the same as real coin.
HDB
May 9th, 2012
10:39 am
Rafe Hollister
May 8th, 2012
6:13 pm
“Yeah, but the Constitution is not. The country was founded on equal justice for all, i.e. individual justice that is equally applied.”
BULLS#!T! This country was founded on privilege….note it was rich, white landowners who had the power! Women and minorities were only considered as PROPERTY! Justice has never been equally applied! A white person can steal millions and only get months in jail while any minority steals $100…and they get 20 years!! Laws were written to protect the ruling class…and marginalize everyone else!!
Oblama
May 9th, 2012
10:39 am
Coming soon : Nanny Pelosi – The Reality Show”.
Oblama
May 9th, 2012
10:41 am
HDB…. twenty years for stealing $100? Better to murder I guess since you will get out in 10 years with “good behavior”.
Oblama
May 9th, 2012
10:43 am
If you get the O.J. Jury you walk – even if you are guilty.
Oblama
May 9th, 2012
11:05 am
After the “Great Depression ll” leftists will be non existent and labor unions will be past history. The Dem Party and Repub Party will fold and there will be a New U.S.A. Order. Big Government will no longer be in style. There will be a balanced budget amendment to the Constitution voted in to existence by the citizens of every state in the U.S.A. – even Vermont. There will be Term Limits for Congress added to the Constitution and voted in by EVERY state in the U.S.A. Social Security, Medicare and other socialist leaning programs will have failed and folded. Oblamacare will be a pipe dream. Small Government and State’s Rights will prevail. There will be a total and complete loss of faith and hope in this failed big government. Jobs will be created in the private sector and big government “job creation” will be shown as a fraud. Can you say “REVOLUTION”? It’s coming sooner than you think. It will be crushing. It will be necessary. The Fed government’s credit card has maxed out and your credit will soon be DENIED. Ironically, checks in the mail from the Fed will be refused at the Banks they bailed out. How do you like your big government now?
Oblama
May 9th, 2012
11:16 am
gone today – here tomorrow
Oblama
May 9th, 2012
11:18 am
………..
Hillbilly D
May 9th, 2012
11:23 am
like Barney Fife said ” Nip this out of control spending in the bud”
It’s about 40 odd years too late for that.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
May 9th, 2012
11:27 am
If you want to emulate Norway, you’ll need to open up both coasts to oil production–that’s how Norway finances their brand of socialism.
Get on it. Tell your Messiah to stop obstructing progress.
@@
May 9th, 2012
11:37 am
Seriously!!??!!
Moderate Dems Bail on Obama in Primary Votes
The bad news for Obama is that Keith Judd, Inmate No. 11593-051, serving a 210-month sentence at the Beaumont Federal Correctional Institution in Texas, also outperformed the president’s 2008 West Virginia primary showing.
Judd, who lists himself as a “Rastafarian-Christian” and his career as “Founder, World Peace Through Musical Communications Skills,” took 41 percent of the vote among West Virginia Democrats and carried 10 counties.
This was about hardening resentment against Obama on the state’s top economic issue – Obama’s mounting restrictions on the mining and burning of coal – as well as a general sense among blue-collar, socially conservative Democrats that there isn’t a place for them in Obama’s party.
I didn’t know Rastafarians wore collars…more into T-shirts.
Too funny!
“Fire de a Mus Mus tail, him tink a cool breeze”.
schnirt
Dusty
May 9th, 2012
11:42 am
Whatsa matter here? No wild celebration over the Braves’ win last night? A fine pitching job by a new young Braves pitcher Delgado? And yes, HillBilly, a little bit of thanks to Mr. Kerry whatshisname of the Chicago team. His pitching was helpful to the Braves.
But we all know that we can defeat anything out of Chicago! The next big election will also prove that!. We gave them one chance and that is all they get! Go Braves! Go Romney!
Oh and one more thing, I would like to invite all the rich French folks who are packing their bags to come to the lovely climate and confines of Georgia. You will love us. We’ll roll out the truffles and hot biscuits for you! Remember: NO 75% INCOME TAX HERE! Welcome Frenchies!
Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!
May 9th, 2012
11:45 am
That has got to be one of the weirdest stories posted on Kyle’s blog ever, @@.
Uh oh
May 9th, 2012
11:48 am
Dusty
We should serve them “cheesy grits”
Dusty
May 9th, 2012
11:51 am
Wow, @@
A Rastafarian Christian! I’ve got to ask my minister about that one. But I doubt that was covered in seminary.. Peace though music! Sounds like Friday night at Bookman’s.
Dusty
May 9th, 2012
11:56 am
Uh oh 11:48
GREAT IDEA! Cheesy grits for the rich Frenchies! That will get them here! Merci beaucoup!