2012 Tuesday: Should we worry about the primary losses of moderates?
For all the talk of how America is following in the footsteps of debt-riddled Greece, here is one way our politics is charting a very different course: We are not waiting to reach the very edge of the abyss before moving our parties away from the center.
One of the big stories from today’s primaries, which for the most part have been rendered less than front-page news outside the states holding them any given day, will be whether longtime Indiana Sen. Dick Lugar survives a challenge from tea-party favorite and State Treasurer Richard Mourdock. A recent poll (there haven’t been many of them) suggests Lugar’s time is up.
The headlines will be about the tea party throwing out a respected member of the D.C. establishment in a fit of ideologically pure pique. Yet, increasingly this kind of result is dog-bites-man news — for both parties.
Last month, Pennsylvania Democrats threw out a pair of “Blue Dog Democrats” from the U.S. House. The Blue Dogs, who tried to push laws such as Obamacare in a more moderate direction when Democrats held all the levers of power in 2009-10, have gone from a peak of 54 members in those years to a projected 23 when the 113th Congress convenes next year. Most of those losses have come at the hands of Republican challengers in general elections, or via retirements. But as the New York Times reported about the Pennsylvania races:
The ouster of the Democratic incumbents — and the tough primaries being waged against some House Republicans — suggest that redistricting ultimately is going to send more liberal Democrats and more conservative Republicans to the House.
That may be true in U.S. House races, where voters can be moved around during redistricting, but we’ve also seen changes in Senate races that cover entire states.
Lugar would be one example, with the list of ousted Republicans also including Bob Bennett of Utah in 2010 and, perhaps, Utah’s Orrin Hatch this year. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska lost her primary in 2010, only to win re-election as a third-party candidate write-in Republican [note: the foregoing text has been corrected -- KW] in the general election. So did Connecticut’s Joe Lieberman in 2006, whom Democrats punished for his support of the Iraq war just six years after appearing on the party’s national ticket as its vice-presidential nominee. Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas had to go to a runoff to remain the Democratic nominee for Senate in 2010, eventually losing her seat to a Republican that November.
On the other hand, GOP voters chose as their nominee the man who, with the exception of Jon Huntsman, was considered the most moderate person in the field — even if the Obama campaign will now spend months trying to convince you Mitt Romney is a dangerous extremist. So the move away from moderation has its limits.
When primary voters in both major parties punish moderate incumbents, the idea seems to be that they want to elect more people truly committed to the cause. But can the cause ever be advanced if the other side is equally committed to electing people determined to block it? Can either party, moving away from the center, elect enough of its own members to push through an agenda that will be uniformly opposed by the other party? The huge Democratic gains of 2006 and 2008 were not typical of our electoral history — and their overreach afterward was sharply rebuked by the voters in 2010. Can the Republicans make a similar follow-up gain this year as they are also moving away from the center? Does the pendulum really swing that fast? And why wouldn’t it just keep reversing course rather than staying in your preferred direction for very long?
How this trend plays out in the long run is anyone’s guess. My guess is that, sooner than later, the electorate will tire of the pendulum moving so far, so fast. But there are two recent examples from Europe that suggest the mushy middle doesn’t necessarily work, either.
The most recent one is, as advertised above, from Greece. Sunday’s elections there were a smackdown of the country’s leading center-left and center-right parties, both of which backed the bailout-and-austerity package from Greece’s European neighbors. Together, the two main parties won just 32 percent of the vote — down from 77 percent in the last elections a few years ago. The largest party won less than 19 percent (although it will have a larger share of the seats in parliament).
More pertinent, however, is the nature of the parties that ate into their vote totals. The second-place party is called — this is the translation of the party’s name in Greek, not my editorial comment on its policies — the Coalition of the Radical Left. The Communist Party won 9 percent to finish fifth, and a neo-Nazi party (known as the “Golden Dawn” party) won 7 percent to wind up sixth. Together, the Communists and the neo-Nazis will have almost one-sixth of the seats in the Greek parliament. Two brand-new parties took another one-sixth of the vote.
Think about that: A collection of Communists, neo-Nazis and two parties that had never competed before managed to equal the votes of the country’s two longest-standing parties. If that’s not a rebuke of the establishment, I don’t know what is.
Another anti-centric example is Northern Ireland. For years, centrist parties representing the two opposing viewpoints there — remaining in the United Kingdom, or separating to join the Republic of Ireland — tried to make deals. It wasn’t until the two extremes on each side took a stab at working together that power-sharing under the Good Friday accord actually worked.
Of course, we are not in the dire straits of either Greece, which has already had one technical default on its debt, or Northern Ireland, which suffered decades of self-inflicted terrorism. Nor have we seen if either of those examples yields good results in the long run. (One of history’s greatest — and most humble! — foreign correspondents reported from Northern Ireland just before power-sharing began there, questioning whether two extremes could truly co-exist for very long.)
The jury is still out here, too.
– By Kyle Wingfield
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202 comments Add your comment
Hillbilly D
May 8th, 2012
6:20 pm
A new study found that giant plant-eating dinosaurs could have produced giant quantities of methane gas, a powerful greenhouse gas
Is that the prehistoric version of blaming it on the dog? (IWH)
@@
May 8th, 2012
6:20 pm
Rafe:
Hillbilly is correct, 6 weeks is more than enough time to have an election, especially if the choice is between two lifelong well known politicians.
Are we gonna do away with primaries?
MarkV
May 8th, 2012
6:23 pm
There is no conflict between social justice and the Constitution.
@@
May 8th, 2012
6:31 pm
There is no conflict between social justice and the Constitution
When it comes to justice, a wise old gentlemen once told me: “Be careful what you ask for…you might just get it.”
Hillbilly:
My dog has never passed gas. NEVER!
(ISH)
Hillbilly D
May 8th, 2012
6:41 pm
When it comes to justice,
My Grandpa always told me, if you were looking for justice, court is the last place you need to go. I’ve never seen anything to make me think he was wrong.
Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!
May 8th, 2012
6:54 pm
“There is no conflict between social justice and the Constitution.”
It depends on what someone means by “social justice”.
jconservative
May 8th, 2012
6:58 pm
Proove it with FACTS
Thanks for the comment.
I usually vote for the most conservative candidate. That is not always the Republican.
I am a believer in small government. Republicans as a whole are believers in big government. This years Republican platform will call for a bigger defense department, It is impossible to have small government and a huge defense department at the same time. Huge defense equals big government.
If we reduce the size of government all other problems go away. It really is that simple.
@@
May 8th, 2012
7:15 pm
Among the many things I did not know. There’s a lot of nepotism associated with Lugar. Lobbyists…paid interns.
He needs to go. He’s been feeding at the trough way to long. The way they desperately hang on, you’d think these politicians couldn’t make it outside D.C..
Proove it with FACTS
May 8th, 2012
7:25 pm
“This years Republican platform will call for a bigger defense department, It is impossible to have small government and a huge defense department at the same time. Huge defense equals big government.”
They have masters to pay off. It is funny but many do not even realize or care when they get in their right / left paradigm, that in many cases it is some of the same masters.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
May 8th, 2012
7:54 pm
At least when we spend money on defense, we’re spending on a function actually enumerated to the federal government.
Not so with Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, free cell phones, and other parasite maintenance programs.
@@
May 8th, 2012
8:00 pm
Obama senior campaign adviser David Axelrod has said repeatedly that the biggest challenge to Obama’s re-election is economic developments beyond Obama’s control.
Like Europe’s economic “whoas”?
Rafe Hollister
May 8th, 2012
8:13 pm
here is no conflict between social justice and the Constitution.
Well Mark, it depends once again on how you define “social justice”. If your social justice is like Oblamers, it involves punishing the rich to benefit the poor. The courts have given the Feds wide latitude to trample on the equal protection clause, however, they have slapped down several “social justice programs”.
Two come to mind right off, racial school busing and affirmative action, Bakke, I believe was the case, in the affirmative action case. There are others and will be others I am sure.
Obamacare, a social justice program, is hopefully soon to be ruled unconstitutional.
The equal protection clause is constantly ignored by the Feds, but is a significant part of the Constitution and is used by the Feds against the states. The Feds seem to feel that it is appropriate for them to favor one group or corporation over the other.
marty
May 8th, 2012
8:17 pm
Somehow you equate the purification of the Republicans in the Senate by the Limbaugh Tea Party
ie. the challenges to Hatch and Lugar to the defeat of two nameless Democratic Reps from Pennsylvania. It’s laughable. Oh, and what were the unmet changes to the Affordable Care Act that doomed the unnamed Representatives?
Rafe Hollister
May 8th, 2012
8:18 pm
Hillbilly
Your grandpa was right, I call it the criminal injustice system.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
May 8th, 2012
8:21 pm
Obama senior campaign adviser David Axelrod has said repeatedly that the biggest challenge to Obama’s re-election is economic developments beyond Obama’s control.
——————–
Funny, libtards think every economic development in 2008 was totally under our President Bush’s control.
Democrats: Lying, liberal fascist hypocrites.
Red
May 8th, 2012
8:32 pm
Historically, will it be recorded as Greece or France that leads us to a new understanding of modern economics?
Wisconsin won’t definitely be first in the world to shift toward toward socialism, and won’t be the last to try to attempt to make it work for the best will of the people.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
May 8th, 2012
8:38 pm
Greece or France won’t be leading the world anywhere we want to be.
Greece already ran out of other people’s money to spend. Their populace is perhaps the biggest (by percentage) group of parasites and moochers known to mankind.
Red
May 8th, 2012
8:44 pm
Perhaps Lil’- but it’s all fiat paper money. Euros or drachmas, who cares? They aren’t dollars or gold.
Dollar was way up today in world markets.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
May 8th, 2012
8:55 pm
Yes, Red, it’s interesting that the general trend of the dollar is down over the last few years, but when the stuff hits the fan, folks come running back to it.
St Simons - codewords are the new black
May 8th, 2012
9:09 pm
Should we worry about………
I think you worry about going extinct early in the 21st century
On 2nd thought, don’t do that, never mind, heheh
You Can Say What You Say But You Are What You Are
May 8th, 2012
9:24 pm
@Lil’ Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
May 8th, 2012
8:21 pm
Obama senior campaign adviser David Axelrod has said repeatedly that the biggest challenge to Obama’s re-election is economic developments beyond Obama’s control.
——————–
Funny, libtards think every economic development in 2008 was totally under our President Bush’s control.
Democrats: Lying, liberal fascist hypocrites.
***********************************************************************
Mitt Witt is a liar’s liar.
“Let Detroit Go Bankrupt”
A severely conservative liar and hypocrite.
Today Romney silent after claiming credit for auto industry comeback.
WHAT A BOLD FACE LIAR.
Mitt Witt is the king of LIARS.
@@
May 8th, 2012
9:25 pm
Would you look at this!!??!!
WASHINGTON — President Barack Obama nominated Kristine L. Svinicki for a new term on the Nuclear Regulatory Commission on Tuesday despite objections from Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.
Obama threw Harry Reid under the bus in exchange for the women’s vote.
J/K although it could’ve been his motivation.
No comment from Harry.
schnirt
You Can Say What You Say But You Are What You Are
May 8th, 2012
9:33 pm
@@@
May 8th, 2012
9:25 pm
Would you look at this!!??!!
WASHINGTON — President Barack Obama nominated Kristine L. Svinicki for a new term on the Nuclear Regulatory Commission on Tuesday despite objections from Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.
Obama threw Harry Reid under the bus in exchange for the women’s vote.
J/K although it could’ve been his motivation.
No comment from Harry.
schnirt
***************************************************************
OBAMA IS THE PRESIDENT.
NOT HARRY REID.
Rafe Hollister
May 8th, 2012
9:34 pm
You Can Say What You Say But You Are What You Are
and could it be, you are the Trashman!
You Can Say What You Say But You Are What You Are
May 8th, 2012
9:35 pm
@Lil’ Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
May 8th, 2012
7:54 pm
At least when we spend money on defense, we’re spending on a function actually enumerated to the federal government.
Not so with Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, free cell phones, and other parasite maintenance programs.
**************************************************************
LINK PLEASE
You Can Say What You Say But You Are What You Are
May 8th, 2012
9:37 pm
@Rafe Hollister
May 8th, 2012
9:34 pm
You Can Say What You Say But You Are What You Are
and could it be, you are the Trashman!
************************************************************
And could it be you are the Garbageman?
Rafe Hollister
May 8th, 2012
9:40 pm
That is right, Oblama putting Hairy the Reed in his place. How dare he not follow the playbook.
I’m guessing totally, don’t know this lady Barry reappointed, but I know that Hairy is a big NIMBY and he does not want that state of the art facility at Yucca Mountain utilized. We spent millions and millions getting that facility built and up to snuff to store nuclear waste. Hairy is playing to the locals and yelling NIMBY. He prefers we store the waste in steel drums in the ocean. Fish, what do they care if they glow; red fish, blue fish, dead fish.
Rafe Hollister
May 8th, 2012
9:41 pm
The hit dog always barks!
You Can Say What You Say But You Are What You Are
May 8th, 2012
9:50 pm
@Rafe Hollister
May 8th, 2012
9:41 pm
The hit dog always barks!
*******************************************************************
And that DOG barked at 9:41 p.m.
Here Rafe……come here boy……….fetch Rafe.
@@
May 8th, 2012
9:51 pm
Looks like organized labor won’t get their preferred candidate to go up against Walker in Wisconsin.
Barrett’s preferred by independents. He DOES NOT have organized labor’s support…they’re behind Falk. Barrett’s past relationship with unions has been rocky. He expects concessions.
Alrighty din!
May the best man win as long as it’s not Mizzzzz Falk.
Dusty
May 8th, 2012
9:54 pm
Well, I reread Kyle’s piece and I’m not sure where it is leading. “To be socialist or not to be?” Or was it “To be moderate or not to be?”
I gather he is worried that with two extremes of representation, liberal & conservative, we have little chance of working out problems. That seems sensible.
Perhaps I am not seeing the whole picture here as I see little problem with moderates. How can two political sides work toward making progress when neither side will listen to what the other has to say? Does it take “extremes” to work out a difficult problem? I don’t think so although it may take extreme measures to move forward.
Ah well, some more clairvoyant than I will see clear solutions for the future. Perhaps I should turn to reading tea leaves in a cup, a less exacting science.
@@
May 8th, 2012
9:57 pm
You Can Say What You Say But You Are What You Are:
OBAMA IS THE PRESIDENT.
NOT HARRY REID.
I know! Did I lead you to believe otherwise?
Harry’s gotta be pithed.
@@
May 8th, 2012
9:58 pm
Actually, the discussion in Wisconsin has taken a turn. Collective bargaining is of little interest. It’s about jobs and the economy.
Fizzle forward.
schnirt
RAMZAD
May 8th, 2012
10:11 pm
………primary loss for moderates. Is that what you call it Kyle? How about:
Purge of the infidels? or The Great “Rat Rub out. Or The political death of the Obama Republican conspirators or Work with Democrats and you die. Kyle your Euphemism is not fooling anyone. A purge is a purge. Dig up Joseph Stalin and ask him.
@@
May 8th, 2012
10:19 pm
Problems at the Polls: Many Voting for Two Candidates for Same Office
Forget Voter ID. Today, during the state’s first recall primary election, poll workers from communities in southeastern Wisconsin reported overvoting as the most common “problem” they’ve faced.
“Some people heard on the news that you could vote for anybody,” said Susan Van Hoven of the Wauwatosa City Clerk’s Office. “They took that to mean they could vote in each party race. Poll workers were trying to tell them, ‘No, you can vote only once for the governor’s office.’”
Wauwatosa Chief Inspector Kathy Repka said “quite a few” residents were erroneously voting for both a Republican and a Democrat for governor, invalidating their ballots and requiring them to vote with a replacement ballot.
Too funny! The undecideds show up to vote.
Dusty
May 8th, 2012
10:21 pm
A moment of silence, please. Cross your fingers. The Braves and Chicago are tied 1 to 1 in the eighth inning. This is CLOSE!!! Go Braves!
Sam
May 8th, 2012
10:21 pm
Wingfield, the idea is not to elect a congress of mushy moderates who will keep us in the same bog we’ve been in for 40 years, but to elect a strong majority of conservatives that won’t have to look for every opportunity to compromise. Then we can go about enacting some real reform that will shrink the size of government in this country and bring back the kind of commitment to self-reliance and freedom that made the USA great.
Dusty
May 8th, 2012
10:42 pm
@@ 10:19
Whatsa matter with those Wisconsin undecideds? They solved their problem Just vote TWICE!! I think those citizens of the NORTH may have a sense of humor!. That’s kinda funny!!
Don't Tread
May 8th, 2012
10:45 pm
Lugar lost. Me worry? Nope. Anyone who votes for unconstitutional bills such as the Campaign Finance Reform and more recently, the defense bill that allows the government to detain American citizens without trial, deserves to be voted out. (I would prefer impeached, but I guess I’ll settle for voted out.)
MarkV
May 8th, 2012
10:54 pm
Rafe Hollister @8:13 pm
It was you who disputed that there was a movement towards social justice, and your argument was the Constitution. So why didn‘t YOU DEFINE it and show the conflict?
Here is one definition:
The fair and proper administration of laws conforming to the natural law that all persons, irrespective of ethnic origin, gender, possessions, race, religion, etc., are to be treated equally and without prejudice.
http://www.businessdictionary.com/definition/social-justice.html
Now find the conflict.
xdog
May 8th, 2012
10:56 pm
Down goes Lugar, who says “what has promised in this campaign is reflexive votes for a rejectionist orthodoxy and rigid opposition to the actions and proposals of the other party. His answer to the inevitable roadblocks he will encounter in Congress is merely to campaign for more Republicans who embrace the same partisan outlook. He has pledged his support to groups whose prime mission is to cleanse the Republican party of those who stray from orthodoxy as they see it.”
Rejectionist orthodoxy, it’s the new PC.
TruthBe
May 8th, 2012
11:08 pm
Obama has to go. America cannot afford a second term of this dishonest liar of a president in Obama. ALL Americans that love your Country need to vote this poor excuse of a president out of office. The dog catcher would make a better president than Obama. At lease the dog catcher loves his Country. Black Americans YOU need to get the little black chip off your shoulder and vote against Obama as well for the good of your Country.
http://www.theblaze.com/stories/black-panther-leader-shabbaz-whites-will-be-very-very-very-angry-in-november-will-cling-to-their-god-and-their-guns-we-might-have-to-too/
Hillbilly D
May 8th, 2012
11:33 pm
Dusty @ 10:21
You should be thankful that Kerry Wood can’t hit the broad side of a bull’s ass, much less throw strikes.
Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!
May 8th, 2012
11:37 pm
Loves me that union strength in Wisconsin tonight. Your boy went down in spectacular flames!
Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!
May 8th, 2012
11:58 pm
Er, rather – girl.
Finn McCool
May 9th, 2012
5:40 am
Thanks God Mitt bailed out GM…….and killed Osama bin laden!
Whew!
Thanks Mitt!
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
May 9th, 2012
7:19 am
obozo “saved” Government Motors!
Thanks to a “sweetheart” tax deal worked out between General Motors and government, the Detroit auto manufacturer won’t have to pay $45.4 billion in taxes on future profits, according to recent reports from the Wall Street Journal and CNN Money.
“Saved” it with your money.
This is what defines an economic genius on Planet Moonbat, take other people’s money, give it to one company and claim success.
Aren’t we all impressed?
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
May 9th, 2012
7:36 am
NC voted to defend marriage from those who would pervert its meaning. Think Obozo will come out in favor of gay marriage before the election?
Obozo: Coward.
Or does he just need more “flexibility”?
tiredofIT
May 9th, 2012
8:29 am
Willard is a mushy moderate (and major liar), why are you supporting him?
Glenn
May 9th, 2012
8:39 am
The French just elected a socialist president because they want more growth . What am I to make of that ?