The voters who just might decide the T-SPLOST’s fate
In any election, you’ll hear a lot about each side’s efforts to woo the woo-able. You’ve heard the names before: “soccer moms” and “NASCAR dads.” With that in mind, here’s a label for the group that might settle July’s T-SPLOST referendum: QuikTrip parents.
They live in the suburbs and have the area’s longest daily commutes. This costs them increasing amounts of gas money and family time. If you’ve seen or heard some of the advertisements about the T-SPLOST, the QuikTrip parents are the target audience.
This group may have become even more important this week when the Sierra Club said it was opposing the tax because, among other things, the project list devoted “only” 40 percent of the revenues to mass transit. In a region where only about 5 percent of commuters use transit, the Sierra Club’s stance displays a realism I’d expect from Don Quixote managing Buddy Roemer’s presidential campaign. Yet, I’ve heard the same concern from other pro-transit people.
And then there are those more concerned about the kind of transit projects the tax would fund. These projects are mostly inside I-285, even though the worst traffic is OTP. And they focus on light rail — the “light” refers to “light capacity” — rather than commuter rail options that would move more people, more efficiently, to Atlanta from the suburbs. Even if advocates are unwilling to bet that Plan B would include more transit, they might be willing to gamble it would include better transit.
So, the QuikTrip parents are becoming more central to this summer’s vote. And it will be very interesting to see if the sales pitch — pay 1 percent more for every good you buy, with a rebate in the form of less gas money and more family time — works with them.
For one thing, while they may be the most desperate for transportation improvements, they might also be the metro Atlantans least inclined to support a new tax.
According to the Atlanta Regional Commission, there are four counties (out of the 10 in the T-SPLOST region) where more than half the work force endures commutes of 30 minutes or more: Douglas, Henry, Cherokee and Gwinnett. Now, let’s use partisanship as a proxy for likelihood to support a new tax. In 2010, these counties split for Nathan Deal over Roy Barnes, 62 to 38 (for today’s purposes, I’m looking only at the two-party vote). That partisan split suggests an uphill climb for the pro-tax folks.
The key with undecided voters will be the project list. And here, too, there is reason to doubt the tax’s chances.
Look at the project map for the whole region, and you see a hub-and-spokes pattern that mirrors the layout of our interstates, with a particular emphasis on large employment centers such as Cumberland and Perimeter. The problem is that the counties where congestion is worst are also the places where commuters are least likely to work at these job centers.
Using other ARC data about how many people commute to the top 10 job centers from each of the 10 counties, we can deduce some broad commuting patterns.
Two-thirds or more of workers living in DeKalb and Fulton, for instance, head to one of the top 10 job centers each day. So, if projects are built to make it easier to reach those places, residents of DeKalb and Fulton are likely to see something that helps them.
The opposite is true, however, for QuikTrip parents. More than 60 percent of people in Cherokee, Rockdale, Douglas and Henry work somewhere other than in the top 10 job centers. This suggests they have more disparate commuting patterns, and may be less likely to believe T-SPLOST projects will reduce their drive times.
Now, one big factor is that there simply are more people in the counties that are more likely to vote for Democrats and have commuting patterns geared toward the biggest job centers. In all, the 10-county region in 2010 went for Barnes over Deal, 53 to 47. That would seem to be a good sign for the tax’s supporters.
But keep in mind that, for the most part, the counties that seem more naturally inclined to support the tax are also the ones where daily commutes are not as bad: If you live in Fulton, for example, you’re about half as likely as someone in Cherokee to have a 45-minute commute each way. The desperation, and thus the intensity at the ballot box, may be lower in those counties.
The campaign may be geared toward QuikTrip parents, but it’s not at all clear the project list was. In about three months, they’ll let us know.
– By Kyle Wingfield
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133 comments Add your comment
@@
May 3rd, 2012
6:13 pm
Well, Rafe. We do have a house to sell in a down market. To make matters worse, it’s in Clayton County where nobody wants to live. If Victor Hill gets re-elected sheriff, we’re finished. Common sense told me it would never happen.
Yet, as I was running errands this afternoon, I saw three cars with his bumper stickers on ‘em. “Elect Victor Hill Sheriff”.
Some folks have no common sense.
JohnnyReb
May 3rd, 2012
6:14 pm
To those who support TSPLOST – what is wrong with you?
Have you actually looked at the project list?
The Beltline, which is not transportation, will suck up 10% but that is not all. There is one project after another that won’t help transportation.
The politicians plan to use the money to fund projects where they can’t get money anwhere else.
The whole thing is a way to move money from South of I-20 to the North.
And last but not least, why would anyone vote to increase taxes for transportation when hotel/motel taxes could be funneled to transportation but the politicians want to use those dollars to help fund a stadium for a privately owned company. How much Falcon stock will be returned to taxpayers?
Vote NO to TSPLOST.
JohnnyReb
May 3rd, 2012
6:21 pm
Speaking of cars with bumper stickers, the other day I was walking from my car into WalMart and noticed a car trying to find a parking spot.
I directed the car to a vacant spot but just before pulling into the spot the driver rolled down the window and yelled at me angrily the spot was for handicapped.
I apologized back noting that before I directed her to the spot I noticed the Obama bumper sticker.
She really appreciated my help and showed me I was number one.
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
May 3rd, 2012
6:24 pm
Though we speak sweet words and can be open and trusting, there is also that coolness.” She tells obozo she loves him. His response? “Thank you.”
RUSH: Well, it’s better than “I know.” (laughing)
And obozo said, I love me too.
md
May 3rd, 2012
6:29 pm
I’m laying odds “Julia” votes in favor……needy as she seems to be, I’m guessing she wants the neighbors to pay for it.
Thomas Heyward Jr
May 3rd, 2012
6:49 pm
Diaper alery for all federo-sexuals.
.
http://www.lewrockwell.com/politicaltheatre/2012/05/fox-news-admits/
Ray
May 3rd, 2012
6:52 pm
Study the list of projects, have a good laugh, then vote “NO!”. Streetcars should be funded with tourism funds. Don’t even start the Northern Arc, until we can figure out a way not to pollute the streams that provide water to us, or ruin our most prized fishing, hunting, hiking areas, just to get trunks off 285. Is it really worth it?
Need we say more?
May 3rd, 2012
7:04 pm
No, no and hell no!
@@
May 3rd, 2012
7:19 pm
Is this trip down Obama’s memory lane for the women’s vote. WTHeck!!??!!
Who’s interested besides lonely women?
Any heaving breasts or throbbing loins in those personal accounts?
schnirt
Rafe Hollister
May 3rd, 2012
7:34 pm
@@
You will never sell it, believe me, my house in Marietta sat and sat, before I finally wised up and put it up for rent. Rented within a week after finding a RE agent who specialized in rentals. Tried to do it myself, for a short time, no luck. It is worth the money to have the RE agent screen the renters. Rental market is strong as prices keep falling.
RE keeps dropping but at some point, people are going to realize the money they are getting in return for the RE doesn’t buy what it used to, so what is the point in selling for that little bit, so prices are going to rise, especially if Oblama gets a second chance to devalue our dollars some more.
Skram30082
May 3rd, 2012
8:23 pm
About light rail…
Light rail doesn’t specifically mean light capacity. It means that teh heavy rail construction (like MARTA) is not used.
Light rail, however, is a euphemism for “slow”. Anyone that’s ridden light rail knows that. The Metro system in SF is light rail. Any one of those street level rail systems are light rail, and they’re all SLOW.
ld
May 3rd, 2012
8:33 pm
Most of those long-distance commuters that do not want to give up their own vehicle may profess to hate the long commute but actually enjoy the (relatively quiet) privacy as well as the freedom to choose travel times, paths and stops along the way.
Does anyone know where I can buy an inexpensive QUIET motorbike that has the power to climb steep hills and a battery that will last all day?
Hillbilly D
May 3rd, 2012
8:34 pm
People that chose to live in the boonies now want infrastructure;
I don’t. Infrastructure just brings Flatlanders and we have more than enough of those up here already.
MountainMan
May 3rd, 2012
8:40 pm
If you want to get people into transit you have to remove cheap parking. Atlanta has always had cheap parking compared to other cities. If people can’t afford to park their cars then they will take transit.
Will the last Democrat in Georgia please turn off the lights?.....
May 3rd, 2012
8:59 pm
MountainMan
May 3rd, 2012
8:40 pm
“If you want to get people into transit you have to remove cheap parking. Atlanta has always had cheap parking compared to other cities. If people can’t afford to park their cars then they will take transit.”
If you want get people into transit, first you have to have transit to get them into.
Atlanta just relatively recently got regional suburban-to-urban core commuter bus service in 2004 and, with a population of just under six million, is the most populated metropolitan area east of the Mississippi River without regional commuter rail service, despite a robust network of existing freight rail lines that run almost perfectly parallel to crowded rush hour interstates.
Will the last Democrat in Georgia please turn off the lights?.....
May 3rd, 2012
9:03 pm
ld
May 3rd, 2012
8:33 pm
“Most of those long-distance commuters that do not want to give up their own vehicle may profess to hate the long commute but actually enjoy the (relatively quiet) privacy as well as the freedom to choose travel times, paths and stops along the way.”
If most of those long-distance commuters love the freedom to choose travel times and paths then why do they all seem to crowd onto one route and contribute to humongous traffic jams.
DagnyT
May 3rd, 2012
9:55 pm
I am a Quick Trip parent, and I am voting NO because I don’t understand how sidewalks and an airport tower help me get down 400 easier. There are no sidewalks or airports on GA 400.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
May 4th, 2012
7:34 am
If you want get people into transit, first you have to have transit to get them into.
——–
You can lead a freedom-loving, independent American to a cattle car reeking of urine, but you can’t make him ride.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
May 4th, 2012
7:46 am
Russia threatens to strike NATO missile defense sites
By Shaun Waterman-The Washington Times
Russia’s Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov warns that talks between Moscow and Washington on the U.S.-led NATO missile defense plan in Europe are “close to a dead end” on May 3, 2012, as officials scrambled to save the deal at a top-level conference. (Associated Press)
Russia’s top military officer warned Thursday that Moscow would strike NATO missile-defense sites in Eastern Europe before they are ready for action, if the U.S. pushes ahead with deployment.
————-
Aren’t we lucky to have an Idiot Klown ready to use his “flexibility” after the election to give away our missile defenses? Surely the way to deal with a bully is to give him what he wants.
Obozo: Traitorous coward.
Mike
May 4th, 2012
8:02 am
I would love to take public transit from my home on the west side of Buckhead to my job on Haynes Bridge Road. Driving in the morning it takes about 35 minutes, in the afternoon it can take an hour. If I took the bus from here, which only runs every forty-five minutes even in morning rush hour, the process would take 90 minutes up and 99 minutes back. My car uses a gallon of gas in each direction.
So 95 minutes and $8.00 or 189 minutes and $2.50? Even someone just starting at McDonald’s would say that their time is worth more than $3.51an hour.
When I lived on Peachtree, I took public transit all the time. But you have to go where the jobs are, and where affordable housing is.
jj
May 4th, 2012
8:36 am
This is a mass pork plan, not a mass transit plan.
A Conservative Voice
May 4th, 2012
8:45 am
@Aquagirl
May 3rd, 2012
7:07 am
And seeing as how Mr. and Mrs. QuikTrip are clogging the hell out of everyone else’s roads on their far-flung commutes, I offer them a hearty 285 salute.
Aquagirl – You’re a “Quack” a minute
And I “salute” you in my own special way 
Here's a Solution
May 4th, 2012
9:12 am
Why the QT reference? Is this free advertisement you are giving them for some gas incentives? First, either we accept the this tax or prepare to pay it through higher fuel tax increase because we will pay one way or another…Next, to lighten up traffic control we should work a 4 day 32 hour work week instead of a 5 day 40 hours week to keep companies from firing and laying off more people. With an additional day off there will be less cars on the road. Also it would allow QuikTrip parents to spend more time with their families, and have less stress by working less hours. Most people only do about 20 hours of productive work during their 40 hours anyway. Also, if we were to add a telecommute day for those who are able would make a huge impact on reducing our traffic concerns. Can you imagine only having to travel approximately 3 days a week for work?
markie mark
May 4th, 2012
9:31 am
“most people on do about 20 hours of productive work in 40 hours anyway”…..
Where in the world do you work? and with that attitude why arent you fired? Have you noticed jobs are moving back here from overseas because we are the most productive work force in the world? And for all the arrogant intown attitudes, I have news for ya – I have tried to afford a decent home inside the perimeter in a part of town my wife would be safe, and the prices are outrageous. And even if every one in the ‘burbs wanted to, there is not enough room inside the perimeter for all of us…..
Aquagirl
May 4th, 2012
9:42 am
Can you imagine only having to travel approximately 3 days a week for work?
Yes, but thousands of control-freak bosses can’t. And that’s the problem.
If we had a tax structure that actually charged businesses for the infrastructure they need, that would be nice. But especially in places like Georgia, Big Biz says “jump” and everyone asks “how high?” Therefore, they are free to demand office workers adhere to normal hours even when it’s not necessary. It’s up to taxpayers to adjust to their demands, even if it costs hundreds of billions for essentially no good reason.
The fact businesses are taking an interest in this T-SPLOST is an indication of how bad things are in metro Atlanta.
Love me some Reagan
May 4th, 2012
10:10 am
“Obozo: Traitorous coward.”
Except for regurgitating talking points, you have done exactly what in service for this country?
Just asking
Dusty
May 4th, 2012
10:36 am
Well…
I think that I shall never see
A TAX that looks good to me.
It may fix roads and keep us free
But it is still a burden with no whoopee!
T-SPLOST is nothing but an additional TAX on citizens. Forget it!!
Bryan -- MARTA supporter
May 4th, 2012
11:10 am
Transit isn’t going to work until we have one transit provider for bus and rail service. I could even see 2 providers working here: One for local bus, BRT, light rail, and heavy rail (MARTA) and one for express bus and commuter rail (Xpress).
MARTA would hand local and BRT service in all major counties (Fulton, Dekalb, Cobb, Gwinett, Clayton, Cherokee, Douglas, Rockdale primarily with limit local service in Henry, Forsyth, and Hall). MARTA light rail can be used within the city on major streets and neighborhoods with connections for cross town routing along with the northern arc of I 285 in connection with heavy rail and bus service while heavy rail would be extended to areas like Town Center in Cobb, Gwinnett Arena in Gwinnet, Windward Pkwy in north Fulton, Arbor Place Mall in Douglas, Conyers in Rockdale, Jonesboro in Clayton, Fairburn in south Fulton, and rail from Bankhead to Smyrna.
Xpress would operate express bus service from outlying areas that don’t have the population to handle rail like Fayette, Carroll, Dawson, and Lumpkin counties while providing commuter rail service to areas like Athens, Macon, Coweta, Paulding, Henry, Hall, Bartow and Cherokee counties.
Until then nothing is really going to get done to improve transit. Eventually that is going to affect funding for roads as well and ATL will start to fall behind as the capital of the south.
Janis
May 4th, 2012
11:50 am
I’ve looked at the projects list. And while i agree revenue should be raised to fix infrastructure around the state like bridges, the projects on the list for my entire Cobb county region will do nothing for my usual 60 minute commute. There is a project around the windy hill exit . Which is funny because the worst of the traffic is around the 285 interchange area, 120 loop and then again north of Barrett Pkwy into Cherokee. There was some talk of a reversible lane up 75 to Cherokee that has nothing to do with t-splost but would be a gas tax, but who knows where that idea went. So t-splost wants to tax 1% of my purchases for 10 years with absolutely no benefit to me while funding a bunch of projects that can be slassified as needed desperately, badly imagined, and also include overwhelming unhelpful to their campaign of “lessen commute times”. Then possibly add a gas tax on top of that might gain some benefit to the I75 corridor. Bring something realistic to the table then try to get our money for it.
Kyle Wingfield
May 4th, 2012
11:57 am
Janis: I believe the plan for the reversible lane involves the use of existing gas-tax revenues, so no increase. The lane(s) would, however, probably be tolled.
Janis
May 4th, 2012
12:19 pm
Thanks for the info Kyle. I’m fine with tolled lanes. If you don’t want to pay to use them you don’t have to and get the consequences of that decision. But the problems i have with the projects list still stands. I think they should have split this t-splost into a lot more regions and project types. Those that are badly needed like bridge repalcements and such around the state in one splost. Then a urban splost and a suburban splost option for the atlanta region.
bu2
May 5th, 2012
10:29 pm
View from Midtown-here, here! We have a bunch of politcal hacks who refuse to lead and others who think the money is theirs to give to their friends.
Midtown Crybaby
May 7th, 2012
10:43 pm
Love you atlmom! Voice of reason? Can I requote part?
QUOTE:
When companies decide not to move here and companies decide to LEAVE here because they can’t find people who want to live in Atlanta or want to commute here or whatever – that affects EVERY SINGLE person in GA. Make no mistake. If Atlanta goes down – so does the whole state.
Most tax revenue for the state comes from Atlanta, that’s where the people are, that’s where the jobs are, and that’s where the tax revenue is.
/ENDQUOTE
TSPLOST is not “really” the answer because some dolts and some politinarcissists couldn’t take a tough stand or give each other and the state a reality check. Rest assured road improvements are necessary, and they can include synced lights and better sidewalks and crosswalks in Midtown.
Transit is not used because it is not funded and is a RIPOFF. I live across from a station, and I only use it/can only use it to get to Publix one station down (quicker and MUCH cheaper to walk as headways are 20 minutes and half a mile’s ride is a full $2.50 with a bulk-price discount), or I can use it to get to the airport. It’s too time-consuming and not efficient enough to get me to Decatur or the mall, and it can’t get me anywhere else. I work in Vinings…reverse commute. Trains would still be nice because I don’t like driving. Who am I? A 24 year old professional with a college degree and an MBA in my future. We need more of me in Atlanta to sustain, and me wants more urbanity, transit, and walkability.
I will only vote yes because if we don’t pass this now it will send a BAD signal to people and companies and we won’t have another opportunity for ANY sort of improvements for a LONG time.