The voters who just might decide the T-SPLOST’s fate
In any election, you’ll hear a lot about each side’s efforts to woo the woo-able. You’ve heard the names before: “soccer moms” and “NASCAR dads.” With that in mind, here’s a label for the group that might settle July’s T-SPLOST referendum: QuikTrip parents.
They live in the suburbs and have the area’s longest daily commutes. This costs them increasing amounts of gas money and family time. If you’ve seen or heard some of the advertisements about the T-SPLOST, the QuikTrip parents are the target audience.
This group may have become even more important this week when the Sierra Club said it was opposing the tax because, among other things, the project list devoted “only” 40 percent of the revenues to mass transit. In a region where only about 5 percent of commuters use transit, the Sierra Club’s stance displays a realism I’d expect from Don Quixote managing Buddy Roemer’s presidential campaign. Yet, I’ve heard the same concern from other pro-transit people.
And then there are those more concerned about the kind of transit projects the tax would fund. These projects are mostly inside I-285, even though the worst traffic is OTP. And they focus on light rail — the “light” refers to “light capacity” — rather than commuter rail options that would move more people, more efficiently, to Atlanta from the suburbs. Even if advocates are unwilling to bet that Plan B would include more transit, they might be willing to gamble it would include better transit.
So, the QuikTrip parents are becoming more central to this summer’s vote. And it will be very interesting to see if the sales pitch — pay 1 percent more for every good you buy, with a rebate in the form of less gas money and more family time — works with them.
For one thing, while they may be the most desperate for transportation improvements, they might also be the metro Atlantans least inclined to support a new tax.
According to the Atlanta Regional Commission, there are four counties (out of the 10 in the T-SPLOST region) where more than half the work force endures commutes of 30 minutes or more: Douglas, Henry, Cherokee and Gwinnett. Now, let’s use partisanship as a proxy for likelihood to support a new tax. In 2010, these counties split for Nathan Deal over Roy Barnes, 62 to 38 (for today’s purposes, I’m looking only at the two-party vote). That partisan split suggests an uphill climb for the pro-tax folks.
The key with undecided voters will be the project list. And here, too, there is reason to doubt the tax’s chances.
Look at the project map for the whole region, and you see a hub-and-spokes pattern that mirrors the layout of our interstates, with a particular emphasis on large employment centers such as Cumberland and Perimeter. The problem is that the counties where congestion is worst are also the places where commuters are least likely to work at these job centers.
Using other ARC data about how many people commute to the top 10 job centers from each of the 10 counties, we can deduce some broad commuting patterns.
Two-thirds or more of workers living in DeKalb and Fulton, for instance, head to one of the top 10 job centers each day. So, if projects are built to make it easier to reach those places, residents of DeKalb and Fulton are likely to see something that helps them.
The opposite is true, however, for QuikTrip parents. More than 60 percent of people in Cherokee, Rockdale, Douglas and Henry work somewhere other than in the top 10 job centers. This suggests they have more disparate commuting patterns, and may be less likely to believe T-SPLOST projects will reduce their drive times.
Now, one big factor is that there simply are more people in the counties that are more likely to vote for Democrats and have commuting patterns geared toward the biggest job centers. In all, the 10-county region in 2010 went for Barnes over Deal, 53 to 47. That would seem to be a good sign for the tax’s supporters.
But keep in mind that, for the most part, the counties that seem more naturally inclined to support the tax are also the ones where daily commutes are not as bad: If you live in Fulton, for example, you’re about half as likely as someone in Cherokee to have a 45-minute commute each way. The desperation, and thus the intensity at the ballot box, may be lower in those counties.
The campaign may be geared toward QuikTrip parents, but it’s not at all clear the project list was. In about three months, they’ll let us know.
– By Kyle Wingfield
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133 comments Add your comment
Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!
May 3rd, 2012
12:14 pm
Imagine believing that Finn McCool would post an original piece of thought . . .
@@
May 3rd, 2012
12:14 pm
Funny play on the label QuikTrip(ers). Some folks buy their gas there, others their groceries. Which of the two has better sense?
There are times when I’m just not into the topic. That’s when strange thoughts occupy my mind.
Anyhoo, I’ll be voting “NO”. I’m about to send my husband into negotiations on thirty acres so far removed from the metro area that it’ll be a distant memory for me.
My job was to research the property and circumstances surrounding its sale.
She wants $5,000 an acre, she’s gonna take $1,500 per.
Life is good!
Kyle Wingfield
May 3rd, 2012
12:16 pm
ByteMe: Well, obviously, any such plan is only as good as the terms of the deal.
That said, the state owns the tracks that head northwest from Atlanta into Cobb and Cherokee. That corridor is a perfect place to start.
Intown
May 3rd, 2012
12:25 pm
Interesting article Kyle. I also wonder if the Quiktrip parents aren’t also the same people that obstruct the growth of MARTA and other mass transit in the first place. As an ITP’er I would have a problem supporting a tax that just went to building more roads for OTP’ers to continue the suburban sprawl problem in the Metro Area. The pro Mass-transit folks need to wake up and understand they ain’t gonna get a better deal than this. If this is deferred anyomre, the North Fulton/Milton County mafia will have an even firmer grasp on power under the Gold Dome and will prevent the crafting of ANY REGIONAL solution. They prefer to think they can wall themselves off from the rest of Metro Atlanta.
commoncents
May 3rd, 2012
12:26 pm
I’m tired of people complaining that their commute is 45-60 minutes, when even if they could drive the speed limit it would still be 30 minutes. Want a faster commute? Move closer to work.
I’ll be voting no.
Jefferson
May 3rd, 2012
12:30 pm
If you don’t agree with others view, simply label them. “QT parents” — right from the playbook.
MrLiberty
May 3rd, 2012
12:55 pm
Parents who live OTP should be the LAST folks to support this criminal tax. They will get nothing out of this that will make their lives any easier except another 1% hike in the cost of everything they buy. Mass transit of any form is completely non-functional for parents in our current city environment. Transit will never go where the daycare/school/soccer/dance/etc. activities are going on. It will never serve a need in an emergency (an all to often need). It will never accomodate functional shopping trips on the way home, emergency needs after work, etc.
I would like to think that some intelligence will be applied to this vote by the general public, but as Newt won this state’s primary, we can rule out common sense and intelligence. The run of the mill parasite that lives off the rest of us will of course vote as they are too beholden to government to ever bite the hand that feeds them.
Intown
May 3rd, 2012
1:04 pm
MrLiberty should be renamed MrHyperbole
Don't Tread
May 3rd, 2012
1:06 pm
Sure…I’ll vote myself another tax to fund somebody’s political slush fund…when pigs fly and hell freezes over.
Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!
May 3rd, 2012
1:08 pm
Just a little drive-by comment, and then we can get back to TSPLOST.
This can’t be good news if you believe in Democrat economic policies:
http://www.latimes.com/business/money/la-fi-mo-california-worst-state-20120502,0,461178.story
The other 4 worst states in which to business are New York, Illinois, Massachusetts and Michigan. What do all those states have in common? Severely Democrat majority legislatures (except Michigan, and that was only recently) and favorable union policies.
You may now return to discussing TSPLOST.
Kyle Wingfield
May 3rd, 2012
1:11 pm
Jefferson: What makes you think I don’t agree with them?
Aquagirl
May 3rd, 2012
1:14 pm
It will never serve a need in an emergency (an all to often need).
Geez, I thought everyone was moving OTP because it’s “safer.” Guess not.
If you’re having so many emergencies in your life you need mass transit for them you’re doing some seriously dumb stuff. If you don’t knock it off, Darwin will take care of your specific group’s transportation needs.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
May 3rd, 2012
1:27 pm
Geez, I thought everyone was moving OTP because it’s “safer.” Guess not.
——-
Guess again.
And I don’t think too many heart attack victims downtown are taking MARTA over to Grady
@@
May 3rd, 2012
1:34 pm
Bin Laden worried he wasn’t in control, documents show.
He hasn’t been for years.
It was vengeance plain and simple. Not that there’s anything wrong with that.
He reaped what he sowed.
Aquagirl
May 3rd, 2012
1:52 pm
And I don’t think too many heart attack victims downtown are taking MARTA over to Grady
No, they call an ambulance. Is it some bizarre OTP custom to drive yourself to the hospital when having a heart attack? Y’all don’t need more roads, you need an infusion of common sense.
JDW
May 3rd, 2012
1:53 pm
I am somewhat ambivalent on the issue.
-Is it a great list…no.
-Is it better than nothing…probably.
-Should the Republican led legislature have done it’s job rather than kicking the can…absolutely.
I do agree with the concept of move closer if you don’t like your commute…I did and it works great.
Ga. Valley in the Sky-beautiful
May 3rd, 2012
1:54 pm
I just voted-voted for the most beautiful place I have seen in Georgia, or the mountains for that matter:
http://www.bestoftheroad.com/town.do?destinationId=25837
Ga. Valley in the Sky-beautiful
May 3rd, 2012
1:55 pm
p.s.-be sure to click thru all the photos.
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
May 3rd, 2012
1:57 pm
Is it some bizarre OTP custom to drive yourself to the hospital when having a heart attack? Y’all don’t need more roads, you need an infusion of common sense.
——-
While we are a more self-reliant lot (compared to the mostly big-government-loving ITPers) we mostly call an ambulance. Which travels on asphalt roadways…duh!
Jefferson
May 3rd, 2012
2:00 pm
Kyle : 1 + 1 = 2 right ?
Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!
May 3rd, 2012
2:02 pm
“Should the Republican led legislature have done it’s job rather than kicking the can…absolutely.”
So do you hold your county commissioners and school board to this same standard when they approve a SPLOST or E-SPLOST, or are you just like DannyX and just have a double standard when it comes to Republicans?
Kyle Wingfield
May 3rd, 2012
2:10 pm
Jefferson: Let me put it this way: What do you think I think their view is? Because I thought I wrote a piece saying, this group is hard to predict, but here are a couple of educated guesses. Then, what do you think my view of the T-SPLOST is? And how do you conclude those two views are in opposition?
Or should I just assume you’re shooting off at the lip again, without even bothering to read?
Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!
May 3rd, 2012
2:11 pm
Oooh! Oooh! Kyle, call on me!!!! I can answer your 2:10! Please?
PM
May 3rd, 2012
2:15 pm
Question to other posters of those who commute to a work place what percentage could work remotely from home. With the use of technology my guess is that we could reduce traffic by atleast 50%. This would result in roads with less congestion which would result in lower gas prices due to demand dropping. Win win for everyone except oil companies. I’d be for a tax that would go to employers who made a policy to have a percentage of their work force work remotely. Employers could potentially save money by having smaller work places and few resources spent due to fewer employees at work. What do you think?
Aquagirl
May 3rd, 2012
2:22 pm
we mostly call an ambulance. Which travels on asphalt roadways…duh!
If you live somewhere that doesn’t have paved roads, that’s your choice. If you have roads, there should be no problem. If you’re clogging the roads so badly the ambulance can’t get through….well, it sounds like some of y’all should get off the roads. Quit begging for a regional tax so ambulances can get past Suzie SUV and Charlie Commuter. An ambulance going to Grady has to dodge them because they demand roadways into the horrible city that provides their job, OTP ambulances can deal too.
BTW, particulate matter from exhaust fumes causes heart attacks. So if OTP’ers don’t have enough roads to accommodate their unhealthy lifestyle that is indeed Darwin at work.
Jefferson
May 3rd, 2012
2:31 pm
I think you don’t want the tax, for reasons you stated in other writings, you didn’t have to label a group to make your point of who the “target” market is. The ads are for the tax, you are not. Right ?
Kyle Wingfield
May 3rd, 2012
2:33 pm
Jefferson: Now you’re not even reading my responses to you, or even your own comments.
Jefferson
May 3rd, 2012
2:40 pm
You could have just said commuters for the tax instead of the label, but no you wanted the label. You don’t have to get all mad about it.
JDW
May 3rd, 2012
2:45 pm
@Tiberius…”So do you hold your county commissioners and school board to this same standard when they approve a SPLOST or E-SPLOST”
There is a big difference between a SPLOST or E-SPLOST and the T-SPLOST. In the case of the former they are county wide taxes that are in levied by and spent by the county in question. Therefore by definition the county commissioners and the school board are accountable. If I don’t like what the do I don’t voter for them.
The T-SPLOST is a regional wide effort to pass the buck. The state legislature didn’t have the fortitude to develop a transportation plan for this state that addressed the issues and funding because they simply didn’t want to be accountable. Therefore they created this regional
cluster-%$#* to insulate themselves from accountability for both the plan and the funding of the plan.
Glenn
May 3rd, 2012
2:47 pm
45 minutes from Cherokee county each way ? In your dreams . You preaching to me unfortunately the northern arc won’t do anything to lessen the traffic burden up this way . Its a waste of tax coin & the property is only going to get higher in price . Not to mention the redneck trail of tears we will get to hear about on a routine basis .
Love me some Reagan
May 3rd, 2012
3:09 pm
“Oooh! Oooh! Kyle, call on me!!!! I can answer your 2:10! Please”
Didn’t you state that you were 55?
hmmmmmmmmmmmmm
Intown
May 3rd, 2012
3:11 pm
Jefferson – you are nonsensical. Kyle – why do you even bother trying to reason with such commenters?
@@
May 3rd, 2012
3:14 pm
redneck trail of tears?
I’m trying to figure out if ^^^ that’s a racist comment.
Red or white…
necks?
schnirt
Kyle Wingfield
May 3rd, 2012
3:33 pm
Intown: I dunno. Some kind of character flaw, I guess.
Rock Gaines
May 3rd, 2012
3:39 pm
I don’t understand why commuter rail isn’t a big part of T-SPLOST. Commuter rail would be easier to implement given that many Metro Atlanta communities were founded on railroad lines. Buy some locomotives, double decked rolling stock, build some stations, install ticket vending machines, build the Multi-Modal Passenger Station in the downtown gulch and away we go.
I’m torn between voting for this thing and not. I do not trust the powers that be to go back and start over with a project list that works. There are way too many road projects for my taste.
The lack of support for MARTA is not good, either. It amazes me that the state can dictate how money is spent at MARTA even though the state contributes nothing. MARTA needs to be expanded and the MARTA name be retired. I’ve been living here for almost 18 years and so little has been done to improve transportation.
My wish list: Expanded MARTA (or whatever it will be called) rail, Commuter rail Atlanta to Conyers, Villa Rica, Canton, Griffin, and Athens; Building of the MMPT in the downtown gulch. This would be a good start.
JV
May 3rd, 2012
3:47 pm
TSPLOST: Taxportation Spending Program Looting Our Suburban Treasury
Road Scholar
May 3rd, 2012
4:20 pm
The responses to date amaze me. No trust in the elected officials the majority voted for. No trust in the GDOT, SRTA, GRTA and MARTA…I agree with the distrust of SRTA but the others are now dominated by the same elected officials the majority have voted for. The money for the projects to be built will go to the private sector to not only build the projects but to create jobs.,..under private control…not public agencies..yet.. no support. People that chose to live in the boonies now want infrastructure; do you realize other states are placing boundaries limiting infrastructure improvement within the denser populated areas, not in the boonies?
Most are whining that they don’t get enough and are willing to screw the rest for their whines. The hell with known congestion and air quality problems.One above stated they want THEIR politicians to select the project list…THEY DID! All counties and many cities were represented on the committee to evaluate and select the projects. Regional models were used to analyze different projects/combinations to get what the list includes. That was done by the Atlanta Regional Commission…the Federally and state recognizedtransportation planning org for the Atlanta Region.
Todd Long was trained as a planner before other opportunities became available in his career. The new guy is suspect. But people, do you want to use a Oijia Board or an Eight Ball to pick projects?
Heaven help us! Whine away!
MrLiberty
May 3rd, 2012
4:21 pm
Hasn’t government wasted enough of your money? why would you want to give them any more. More money, more power, more waste.
Road Scholar
May 3rd, 2012
4:23 pm
Rock: Those same railroad tracks are owned by the railroads. Many rail corridors are at capacity (they say) hauling freight. They want a third set of rails separate for more freight and passenger movements.
Road Scholar
May 3rd, 2012
4:24 pm
OK Mr Liberty, what is our options? Private public Partnerships? They aren’t cost effective; the private sector wants too many controls. So, what is your solution?
Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)
May 3rd, 2012
4:27 pm
Build nothing, then implement Clark Howard’s idea…charge a toll to use crowded roads during rush hour. Give all the money to drivers using the roads during off-peak hours. Raise the tolls/payouts until the problem goes away.
DannyX
May 3rd, 2012
4:30 pm
“TSPLOST: Taxportation Spending Program Looting Our Suburban Treasury”
No, the looting is being done by rural Georgia with the help of your Republican leaders as they siphon off 35% of all metro-Atlanta gas tax dollars and federal transportation funds for their rural roads.
@@
May 3rd, 2012
4:34 pm
People that chose to live in the boonies now want infrastructure; do you realize other states are placing boundaries limiting infrastructure improvement within the denser populated areas, not in the boonies?
As long as there’s electricity (which there is), my boonie offers a paradise lost. I’d prefer a dirt road but those are hard to come by.
Don’t it always seem to go
That you don’t know what you’ve got til its gone
They paved paradise
And put up a parking lot
To each his own. No concrete jungle for me.
DawgDad
May 3rd, 2012
4:37 pm
“building new reversible High Occupancy Toll (HOT) lanes on Interstates 75 & 575 between the Perimeter and Canton and Acworth.”
I’m in Cherokee, and I commute to Smyra (but work from home frequently). This tax had little chance to snag my vote, but this was the silver bullet. Having witnessed the 400-toll booth broken promise and then the HOT lanes on I-85 it will now be virtually impossible to get me to vote for ANY tax increase related to transportation, outside of a local county initiative. The politicians cannot be trusted.
hryder
May 3rd, 2012
5:21 pm
VOTE OUT ALL INCUMBENT ELECTED OFFICE HOLDERS IN THE NOVEMBER ELECTIONS. There might possibly be people in office at that time willing to accomplish what most people desire with their tax monies rather than primarily spending tax funds on those things that will in essence buy votes to remain in office and hold political power. ALL OFFICE HOLDERS!
@@
May 3rd, 2012
5:54 pm
VOTE OUT ALL INCUMBENT ELECTED OFFICE HOLDERS IN THE NOVEMBER ELECTIONS.
I can only vote mine out. Chances are the dems won’t vote their’s out though.
So what’s the point?
Some folks like their reps. Some even LUV ‘em…WORSHIP ‘em…depend on ‘em. They’ll vote for ‘em no matter what.
Rafe Hollister
May 3rd, 2012
5:54 pm
hryder
You have said that about 100X already, never going to happen, just save your fingertips.
Rafe Hollister
May 3rd, 2012
5:59 pm
@@
I have done what you are preparing to do, no traffic, no neighbors, fresh vegetables, fresh air, no subdivision Nazi trying to enforce covenants, no one cares where my dog relieves himself, and plenty of room on our roads. You will love it.
As for this topic, Nancy Reagan had the answer to Tsplost, “just say no”.
@@
May 3rd, 2012
6:02 pm
According to declassified Osama bin Laden documents found at his Pakistan compound, Al Qaeda’s late leader called Joe Biden ‘totally unprepared’ for the presidency, and left him off a hit list.
Poor, Joe.
Can’t get nobody’s respect.
md
May 3rd, 2012
6:08 pm
I already voted….with my feet. After spending a large majority of my life watching Atl grow too big around me and spending upwards of 3 hours every day in a car, we discovered there actually are other places to live that don’t require the same sacrifice. It wasn’t easy making the choice to leave, but now I ask myself repeatedly…..”what took me so long?”
Have fun in the too big city……we are enjoying our new found quality of life….outside the car.