2012 Tuesday: The long GOP veepstakes begins

The Republican primary resumes today, but it doesn’t matter. When Rick Santorum dropped out of the race a couple of weeks ago, any remaining suspense dissipated. The only question tonight will be Mitt Romney’s margins of victory. (Yes, I realize Newt Gingrich is playing up his chances of winning in Delaware. I also realize that, well, it’s Delaware.)

The conversation quickly moved on to the question of Romney’s running mate, which is a little bit silly. Four months remain before the Republican National Convention, and in my view it would be foolish to name a running mate this far out. If Romney continues to run neck-and-neck with President Obama in the polls or even opens up a sizable lead, he will want to play it safer with his choice than if, say, he falls behind significantly (think Sarah Palin in 2008). It’s too early.

I think the next couple of months will feature more scenes like the one we saw yesterday, with Romney campaigning alongside potential running mates. Yesterday was Marco Rubio, the freshman U.S. senator from Florida, and the pair’s appearance together rekindled the veep speculation that Rubio has sought to tamp down. Look for more of the same given that a couple of Romney’s possible choices hail from the swing states in which he’ll be campaigning a lot: U.S. Sen. Rob Portman (Ohio) and Gov. Bob McDonnell (Virginia).

That said, here are a couple of points to keep in mind:

1. Geography — but not in the way you expect. There’s little evidence in recent history that the running mate adds to a ticket’s ability to win his/her home state. Since Ronald Reagan’s landslide 1984 victory, which reset the map, the Republicans have won the vice presidential candidate’s home state six times out of seven and the Democrats four out of seven. Now, 10 out of 14 might sound pretty good, but consider that seven of those victories (five for the GOP, two for Democrats) came in “safe states” — which I define as states that party had won in each of the previous two presidential elections.

So, it wasn’t surprising that the Republicans won Alaska in 2008 (Palin), because they had a track record of winning that state in presidential elections. Ditto for Wyoming in 2004 and 2000 (Dick Cheney), and Indiana in 1992 and 1988 (Dan Quayle) — and, for the Democrats, Delaware in 2008 (Joe Biden) and Connecticut in 2000 (Joe Lieberman).

In the “not safe” states, however, the track record since 1984 is pretty mixed. The GOP has split its efforts, winning Texas in 1984 (George H.W. Bush) after losing it in 1976, but failing in New York in 1996 (Jack Kemp) after losing it the previous two cycles. The Democrats have fared a little worse: Tennessee in 1996 and 1992 (Al Gore) was a hit. But North Carolina in 2004 (John Edwards), Texas in 1988 (Lloyd Bentsen) and New York in 1984 (Geraldine Ferraro) were misses.

So, I’m not convinced Romney will sew up Florida should he pick Rubio, Ohio if he chooses Portman, or Virginia if he selects McDonnell — much less New Jersey if Chris Christie were his running mate. And it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he won, say, Louisiana with Bobby Jindal on the ticket.

2. Experience. By GOP-nominee standards, Romney is wet behind the ears. He will be the first Republican nominee since Gerald Ford not to have won at least two statewide or national elections, and the first since Dwight Eisenhower not to have won at least two elections of any kind. (The two least experienced Democrats to win the presidency were Obama and Jimmy Carter, each of whom had won just one statewide election before entering the White House.)

Ike, of course, had never won any elections before winning the presidency — and, like Ike, Romney is running largely on his experience outside government. If I were Romney, I’d want a running mate with more experience both in government and winning elections. Jindal and McDonnell, each of whom has won statewide office twice and served in other public positions (both elected and appointed) beyond that, would fit the bill. Rubio, Portman and Christie, however, would not.

Now for a side note about Rubio: It might sound like I’m trying to play him down as a candidate. I’m not. However, I don’t think it’s an absolute necessity, for him or the GOP, to put him on the ticket this year. Here’s what I mean:

Let’s assume Romney wins this election and is re-elected in 2016. And then let’s assume his vice president wins in 2020 and 2024. By the time 2028 rolls around, Rubio would have had time either to serve two full terms in the U.S. Senate and be in the middle of his second term as governor of Florida, or to finish this term and serve two full terms as governor; either way, he’d be much more prepared to be president than he is today, or would be in the next four to eight years. And he’d still be just 57 years old in 2028. Now, he would have to worry about voter fatigue with Republicans if they were to hold the presidency for 16 straight years — but then, given that no party has held the presidency that long since FDR and Truman from 1933 to 1953, he probably doesn’t have to worry about that happening.

Bottom line: Rubio has a very bright future, and no need to be impatient for it to arrive.

What do y’all think? Should Romney wait? Who would make a good running mate for him?

– By Kyle Wingfield

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156 comments Add your comment

Junior Samples

April 24th, 2012
12:00 pm

(Yes, I realize Newt Gingrich is playing up his chances of winning in Delaware. I also realize that, well, it’s Delaware.)

Should read, “I also realize that, well, its Newt”.

Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!

April 24th, 2012
12:09 pm

To the first question, Romney should wait, but not too long. A month before the convention would be just the right amount of time.

To the second question, he still needs someone to excite the base, and that remains Rubio. Young, energetic, Tea Party credentials and articulate as all get out. He’d be the perfect yang to Romney’s yin.

Neither Portman nor McDonnell provide enough of that. Jindal would be poison.

carlosgvv

April 24th, 2012
12:13 pm

I still say Chris Christie would be the best. One commentator said he wouldn’t pick him because of being overshadowed.

Jefferson

April 24th, 2012
12:13 pm

If Romney does pick someone with a herd of polo ponies, he has no hair on his behind.

Dusty

April 24th, 2012
12:14 pm

Well, Kyle,

If you want two “smoothies”, push Jindal.

If you want a “semi prez” push Christie

If you want a wake up call, push Zell Miller

If you want to repeat history, push Palin

If you want a “classic”, push Housman

If you want “pure conservation”, push Scott.

If you want a “sensible woman”, push Condaleeza Rice

If you want “wonder woman”, push Arizona’s governor!

Save Rubio for Romney’s second term.

jconservative

April 24th, 2012
12:30 pm

Will it be necessary for Romney to “whip up ” the base with his VP pick? That answer may determine who he picks. If yes, Jeb Bush? If no, then anybody.

I agree with Kyle on Rubio. Rubio needs to observe for a decade or so.

clyde

April 24th, 2012
12:30 pm

The Vice President has to be from a swing state south of Boston and west of the Atlantic Ocean. Tha’ts the only qualification needed.

Grasshopper

April 24th, 2012
12:33 pm

I think he needs to pick someone with some spark and sizzle. He should ditch the boring old white guys and go with Rubio. I think that would excie quite a few voter categories.

Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!

April 24th, 2012
12:35 pm

I will say that Dusty brings up an alternative that I’ve been mulling over for about a month now.

Condie Rice.

She’s got the experience, and she’d walk all over Biden in any debate.

DannyX

April 24th, 2012
12:38 pm

“If you want a “semi prez” push Christie”
You ain’t kidding that guy is as fat as a semi truck

“If you want a wake up call push Zell Miller”
You better wake that old man up first.

“If you want two “smoothies”, push Jindal.”
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

“If you want to repeat history, push Palin”
That would also be the insane pick

“If you want a “sensible woman”, push Condaleeza Rice”
Sorry, Republicans don’t do sensible

“If you want “wonder woman”, push Arizona’s governor!”
See Sarah Palin above

“If you want a “classic”, push Housman”
Who??

“If you want “pure conservation”, push Scott”
Wouldn’t be wise for an unpopular presidential candidate to pick an unpopular governor.

Other than that good job Dusty!

DannyX

April 24th, 2012
12:41 pm

Rubio has 2 problems.

1. He is not eligible to be president
2. His Dream Act proposal

JDW

April 24th, 2012
12:43 pm

@Kyle…”If Romney continues to run neck-and-neck”

WOW that is a looooooooong neck. From the real world all the recent polls…

Gallup Tracking Obama +3
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl Obama +6
Quinnipiac Obama +4
CNN/Opinion Research Obama +9
PPP (D) Obama +3
Reuters/Ipsos Obama +4

Rasmussen Tracking Romney +4

Is it just me or does one of those…stand out a bit?

md

April 24th, 2012
12:43 pm

“If I were Romney, I’d want a running mate with more experience both in government and winning elections.”

“Gov’t” doesn’t exactly have high approval ratings right now, maybe it’s time to have an “outsider” ticket to wash the slate clean and start over……..experience in DC is over rated. They tend to be at the root of the problem vs the cure.

JohnnyReb

April 24th, 2012
12:44 pm

I dont’ see Romney lagging in polls to the point of needing to announce his VP choice before the convention. If the Moonbat pundits and polls show Romney behind, don’t believe it. Announcing the VP choice at the convention would be the best.

Who? It can’t be another North Easter. And, the election is too important to try the woman VP thing (sorry girls, there are lots of us chauvenist pigs still around) An experienced Southern Governor would be best.

carlosgvv

April 24th, 2012
12:46 pm

Grasshopper

Rubio is the son of Cuban immigrants. Hispanics are considered Caucasians. In other words, he is white.

Ayn Rant

April 24th, 2012
12:48 pm

Just goes to how little value is gained from political experience. Eisenhower was only decent President in recent memory who ran on the Republican ticket.

The later Republican Presidents, all deft politicians with loads of state and national political victories, were the worst Presidents in memory. Remember Nixon, the crook? How about Ford, who couldn’t walk and chew gum at the same time? And don’t forget Reagan, the voodoo economist who initiated big-time, peacetime deficit spending , and passed the burden and shame on to the unfortunate Bush #1.

And who can ever forget Bush #2, who killed economic progress the first year in office, started a counter-strategic war with Iraq, initiated a never-ending campaign to build an Afghan state, and finally let his Big Business, High Finance sponsors crash the American economy.

Let’s hope Romney will put aside the preposterous Republican dogma he has adopted, unconvincingly, and use his head, not his butt, in choosing a running mate.

md

April 24th, 2012
12:48 pm

“2. His Dream Act proposal”

Not from what I can tell he doesn’t:

http://www.pollingreport.com/immigration.htm

Seems those in favor if illegals are in the minority……..

Sherlock

April 24th, 2012
12:53 pm

I hear Sonny Puredoo is available.

DannyX

April 24th, 2012
12:54 pm

“Seems those in favor if illegals are in the minority”

Exactly. Which is why Rubio’s Dream Act proposal will not go over well with Republicans.

Dusty

April 24th, 2012
12:56 pm

Danny X @12:38

Thank you. You caught my error. It is CLASSIC = HUNTSMAN not Housman. Sorry ’bout that.

Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)

April 24th, 2012
12:56 pm

The later Republican Presidents, all deft politicians with loads of state and national political victories, were the worst Presidents in memory.
———

Not a one got themselves impeached, ran trillion-dollar deficits, or allowed the mullahs to hold our people hostage for more than a year.

that's goofy

April 24th, 2012
1:04 pm

Hope he picks Rubio. Then we will watch the GOP contort themselves about automatic US citizenship by birth. Both his parents are Cuban. How do we know Rubio is a Patriot? I bet he wants to open our borders.

Yes, I am being facetious but you know this is coming.

DannyX

April 24th, 2012
1:04 pm

“…or allowed the mullahs to hold our people hostage for more than a year.”

Bush held hands with the Saudi king and gave him a big mouth to mouth kiss!

“ran trillion-dollar deficits”
Barry, what’s the plan for Romney when he takes office? How is he going to pay for the Bush tax cuts, trillion dollar wars, socialist Medicaid Part D, and his big government Dept of Homeland Security?

His plan so far is to hand out even more tax cuts! Re-elect Bush, vote for Romney!

tiredofIT

April 24th, 2012
1:05 pm

At the rate Romney flip-flops, I doubt he will be able to make a decision.

that's goofy

April 24th, 2012
1:07 pm

Parents became naturalized US citizens in 1975. 4 years after he was born. They came here in 1950’s… what took so long?

While I’m here: how come Cubans have a no return policy when they reach shore but Haitians don’t?

Steve

April 24th, 2012
1:07 pm

Could care less what plutocratic prude Mr. Holy Underwear picks.

Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!

April 24th, 2012
1:11 pm

DannyX is wrong on so many things, he can’t even get it right that Rubio is actually an American citizen, born in Miami, Florida.

DannyX, up your game a bit, son. You’re embarrassing yourself in front of hundreds, if not thousands of people.

md

April 24th, 2012
1:11 pm

“Exactly. Which is why Rubio’s Dream Act proposal will not go over well with Republicans.”

Not too sure about that one. Rubio’s plan does not include a path to citizenship, which may have some merit. I don’t see “smoking them out” as a real option, so something in between just may work.

Bruno

April 24th, 2012
1:11 pm

If you want a “semi prez” push Christie

If you want a “sensible woman”, push Condaleeza Rice

Good post, Dusty. I’ll vote for either a “semi prez” or a “sensible woman”.

@@

April 24th, 2012
1:12 pm

I wouldn’t USE a person’s ethnicity or gender to garner votes…that’s what Democrats and John McCain do(es).

Rubio is about as close to Reagan as they come. He’s bright, articulate and motivated. He takes the time to convey his principles and how they would benefit America. He has promise.

Given the obvious choices, I’ll go with McDonnell although Paul Ryan would be my first choice. He (Ryan) is willing to make the difficult decisions that’ll put us on the Path to Prosperity.

md

April 24th, 2012
1:13 pm

“While I’m here: how come Cubans have a no return policy when they reach shore but Haitians don’t?”

Haiti isn’t run by communists……..

Mr. Dithers

April 24th, 2012
1:18 pm

md

April 24th, 2012
12:43 pm
“If I were Romney, I’d want a running mate with more experience both in government and winning elections.”

“Gov’t” doesn’t exactly have high approval ratings right now, maybe it’s time to have an “outsider” ticket to wash the slate clean and start over……..experience in DC is over rated. They tend to be at the root of the problem vs the cure.

But, but, but…Obama didn’t have enough experience. Now it’s a good thing?

Steve

April 24th, 2012
1:18 pm

Yawn – don’t really care which prudish plutocrat the flip flopping holy underwear candidate chooses.

Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!

April 24th, 2012
1:18 pm

“While I’m here: how come Cubans have a no return policy when they reach shore but Haitians don’t?”

Our previous Cold War mentality caused us to give special consideration to those people fleeing Communist dictatorships as opposed to banana republic dictatorships.

Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!

April 24th, 2012
1:22 pm

Steve, do you have an opinion that is not religiously bigoted in nature?

If not, please head over to Bookman’s. You’ll fit right in there.

Kyle Wingfield

April 24th, 2012
1:24 pm

Yep, JDW, the Obama +9 one does stick out a great deal. Other than that, you have the two men running within 3-4 percentage points of each other for the most part. Which, more than six months out, sounds like “neck and neck” to me.

Thomas Heyward Jr.

April 24th, 2012
1:30 pm

Ha Ha.
.
The state-sponsored Media may push the official corporate designated loser Romney but……………
REAL Americans pick freedom, wealth, property rights, and Personal Liberty.
.
Ron Paul 2012.
Because eventually……….TPTB will run out of countries to invade and citizens to cage.

md

April 24th, 2012
1:33 pm

“But, but, but…Obama didn’t have enough experience. Now it’s a good thing?”

No, Obama had no experience at all except as a bill writer in the Senate.

Governors…..which are not DC insiders…..at least have the experience of running a gov’t……

Steve

April 24th, 2012
1:36 pm

Maybe Romney will pick the incompetent hypocrite Sarah Palin again and all the right wingnuts will rejoice.

JDW

April 24th, 2012
1:37 pm

@Kyle….sounds like someone consistantly behind to me

Kyle Wingfield

April 24th, 2012
1:42 pm

JDW: If you are actually interested in learning how to read polls, I suggest you start with this primer.

DannyX

April 24th, 2012
1:42 pm

“Other than that, you have the two men running within 3-4 percentage points of each other for the most part.”

Remember that Gallup tracking poll Republicans fell in love with last week?

Obama 49%
Romney 42%

Obama +7

Looks like the Romney wrapping up the nomination bump is long gone.

Kyle Wingfield

April 24th, 2012
1:46 pm

DannyX: Same advice I gave JDW @ 1:42 applies to you. Or anyone who wants to tout Rasmussen’s Romney +4 result.

A national, head-to-head poll six months before the election is about as close to worthless as it gets.

@@

April 24th, 2012
1:52 pm

I always liked John Bolton’s comparison of Obama to Æthelred the Unready.

Pretty spot on all things considered.

td

April 24th, 2012
1:54 pm

Kyle Wingfield

April 24th, 2012
1:46 pm

You can forget about Danny X because he is way to partisan to look at any realistic information.

Dusty

April 24th, 2012
1:55 pm

Bruno @ 1:11

Thank you. Come by more often. Good to hear from you.

DannyX

April 24th, 2012
1:56 pm

“A national, head-to-head poll six months before the election is about as close to worthless as it gets.”

There is some worth to them this far out. For all the talk around here that Obama is the worst president ever, or as one poster here loves to say “disaster-in-chief,” Romney trails in the polls. If Obama truly is as bad as you say Kyle, you would think the Republican nominee would have a big lead right now.

I think the polls show now that Romney is not very well liked. He has tons of work to do to overcome that perception.

Funny, last week Republicans were shouting out poll results, this week they want everyone to ignore them.

@@

April 24th, 2012
1:57 pm

Looks like the Romney wrapping up the nomination bump is long gone.

Personally, I’d settle for a GOP controlled House and Senate. Obama can keep the presidency to save face.

Obama the Hamstrung

schnirt

Steve

April 24th, 2012
1:57 pm

Gas prices are down again. I guess you wingnuts can now praise Obama for that since you blamed him for them going up last month?

DannyX

April 24th, 2012
2:04 pm

“You can forget about Danny X because he is way to partisan to look at any realistic information.”

And here comes td, right on cue! 2 weeks ago he was saying it’s too early to be poll watching. Suddenly a couple polls broke in Romney’s favor and td couldn’t get enough poll talk. Now he is complaining about partisan rhetoric in a political blog. td! Complaining about partisanship, wow.

Bruno

April 24th, 2012
2:05 pm

Thank you. Come by more often. Good to hear from you.

Thanks, Dusty. I’m still tilting at windmills over at Bookman’s place for now.

Howdy to Dave, md, and @@.

td

April 24th, 2012
2:08 pm

Steve

April 24th, 2012
1:57 pm

When Obama took office gas was $1.87 per gallon and now it is $3.66 per gallon and down a few cents from its high of $3.89. Can you really say you are proud of $3.66 per gallon? How about 1 million less jobs now then the day Obama took office. Is that something to be proud of? 1.7% growth rate 3 years after a recession is over. Is that something to be proud of?

Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!

April 24th, 2012
2:15 pm

“I guess you wingnuts can now praise Obama for that since you blamed him for them going up last month?”

If he actually did something to drive them downward, I would. But since he’s done almost nothing in 3+ years anyway (and what little he did do he screwed up), I’m not so inclined to jump on his bandwagon as you are.

JDW

April 24th, 2012
2:16 pm

@Kyle…I do just fine at reading polls actually and have even read that article. That said my real point has nothing to do with polls and everything to do with bias. If you had said that though Romney is consistently trailing in the polls it is too early for them to really matter I would have agreed with you. However you chose to print that the race is currently “neck-to-neck” and that is just not supported by the facts.

Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!

April 24th, 2012
2:19 pm

JDW, I would suggest looking up the definition of “margin of error” before claiming that polls do not suggest a “neck-and-neck” race.

atlmom

April 24th, 2012
2:28 pm

Obama and McCain were pretty much tied when McCain made the Palin pick.
It wasn’t til a month or so later that Obama started to lead. October even, maybe.

ragnar danneskjold

April 24th, 2012
2:34 pm

Good essay, well thought-out. I am not a good one to offer opinions on vice presidents – I think Dick Cheney was the best vp in my lifetime, and I think he would have been the second best president – and I also know my perspective is not politic.

I don’t think it matters, really – who, otherwise inclined to vote against Obama, would stay home rather than vote for Hugo Chavez for vice president? And in contrast, who, having failed to learn anything from the serial disasters of the past three years, would suddenly choose to vote for the Romney-Lady Gaga ticket? Don’t think it matters.

Kyle Wingfield

April 24th, 2012
2:34 pm

atlmom: McCain’s downfall started when he rushed back to Washington to try to deal with the financial crisis, in an attempt to look presidential, but he looked ineffective (at best — weak at worst) and never recovered.

Steve

April 24th, 2012
2:37 pm

td – spouting more lies? Do you realize that gas prices were down due to an economic collapse at that time? Do you know the real data of the continued job growth since the Great Bush recession?

What do you think caused the great Bush recession anyhow? Deregulation of the mortgage industry and greed. And our debt? Starved govt via the lowest taxes in our lifetimes along with incredible spending, which includes the bloated military industrial complex (big govt).

Do you wingnuts only know lies?

Kyle Wingfield

April 24th, 2012
2:38 pm

JDW: Aside from agreeing with Tiberius @ 2:19, I would suggest that using the word “fact” in connection with opinion poll results is a mistake. Especially in the given context.

ragnar danneskjold

April 24th, 2012
2:44 pm

Probably should have cast my vote with my earlier note – I was a Rubio fan before he was elected, still think he is the brightest light in the picture other than Paul Ryan and maybe Bobby Jindal. I like Condi, but doubt her economics competence; Iran notwithstanding, the biggest threat to the US today is “Obamanomics.” Maybe Romney is enough, but I think he needs an economics attack dog.

Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!

April 24th, 2012
2:46 pm

“What do you think caused the great Bush recession anyhow?’

30+ years of failed liberal housing/banking policies and the inability of GOP elected officials to modify or get rid of them.

Satisfied, Steve?

ragnar danneskjold

April 24th, 2012
2:46 pm

Given Obama’s published appetite for canine burger, maybe an attack possum instead.

Dusty

April 24th, 2012
2:49 pm

Seems we need some new liberal “joke!” material. The dog “dish” thing and the underpants thing is worn thin by liberals. !
I’m thinking……Obama eats LAMB Chops!

Mary had an itty bitty lamb
When Obama came, it was kerzamm! …. Nawwwww…..
————————————————-
Obama can’t even pitch a baseball.
So back to the minors for him this fall. ………Nawwwww
—————————————————
Obama says ” Forget the debt,
I’m going to think of something yet!”…………..Nawwwww
————————————————————————————–
Obama is not feeling any too hardy.
He’s heard the news via the Green Party!………Gotcha!

Anybody?

md

April 24th, 2012
2:53 pm

Too funny……Owebama out scaring the kiddies again about student loans going up……and does he even know why they are going up??

Because the dem congress voted for them to go up back in 2007…..does he even do his homework before he does his campaigning??

AmVet

April 24th, 2012
2:54 pm

The Republican primary resumes today, but it doesn’t matter.

Agreed.

It has always been a toss up between Flip and Total GOP Apathy.

And his VP choice will make zero difference.

It already looks like a Las Vegas certainty that the women in this country will vote against him in record numbers and percentages.

In most bizarre fashion, he is trying desperately to convince the GOP power brokers and operatives that he is a rabid “severely conservative” (LOL!) neocon, though he won the Mass. governorship by being who he really is – a moderate.

And for that reason, the independents and centrists are likely not going to vote for him in big enough numbers to carry the day, as it is. And when he picks a truly far right winger as his would-be Veep, to prove that he is “severely conservative” (LOL again), there go his already smallish chances with that critical demographic.

Prepare for a second McCaining…

Dusty

April 24th, 2012
2:58 pm

Ah Ragnar! 2:46

URGENT request from Republican National Headquarters:

NEEDED: an attack possum, permanently or for starters!

Dusty

April 24th, 2012
3:01 pm

AmVet, 2:54

Prepare for the disarming of Obama! It’s going to be chamring! And for you, alarming!!

JDW

April 24th, 2012
3:02 pm

@Kyle and Tiberius…here are the facts….

—In 6 of the most 7 recent polls Obama leads.
—In only one of the 6 is Obama’s lead less than the margin of error and then by 0.3 percent.
—In the only poll led by Romney has a history of Republican bias
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/

You can have your opinions but facts are facts….

Spin all you want, but fact is Romney currently trails Obama. Might change might not but the current lead, based on the average of polls exceeds 3 percentage points. If you toss the low and high poll the average lead is 5 percentage points.

ragnar danneskjold

April 24th, 2012
3:08 pm

Dear JDW @ 3:02, we presume you do not know the difference between “registered voters” and “likely voters,” and the difference in accuracy between the two?

ragnar danneskjold

April 24th, 2012
3:10 pm

Given that Obama hasn’t gotten anything right in three years, he is unlikely to change his standing in the next six months. I see a blowout of Reagan-Carter proportions. Even though Romney is not up to the Reagan standard, Obama is not up even to the Carter standard.

saywhat?

April 24th, 2012
3:11 pm

Who doesn’t dream about being the winner of this election year’s Republican “Veepstakes”?

Because, wow, what a prize. You get to play second fiddle to the guy who lost to the guy who lost the last election, running against the guy who beat him. On second thought, there might be more value in winning a 15 cent off coupon on catfood, even if one doesn’t own a cat.

Dusty

April 24th, 2012
3:12 pm

Yes, JDW, and Dewey is way ahead of Truman !!!

Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!

April 24th, 2012
3:12 pm

JDW, whatever you do, don’t give up your day job, because reading polls and making conclusions based on them is certainly not your forte.

1. No matter which way you slice it, removing every poll’s margin of error puts every poll in the low, low single digit lead or removes the lead entirely. By any definition of the term “neck-and-neck”, this race qualifies.

2. You have conveniently forgotten to post the Fox News poll, which is not so complementary to your Messiah, but is still within the margin of error.

3. National polls never, ever, mean a thing. Only statewide polls do, and they typically lag behind national polls by several weeks.

4. Polls 6 months away from a general election (national or statewide) mean less than an AmVet post – that being nothing at all.

Now, go back to doing whatever it is you do, because unbiased, logical, political commentary ain’t it.

Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!

April 24th, 2012
3:19 pm

ragnar, I disagree with your 3:10 prediction.

Mine today (and has been for a while and will remain so until new evidence comes to light) is that this election will be decided by less than 20 electoral votes, and likely less than 10. I suspect there will be about a 2% difference in popular votes, but it may well be that the winner doesn’t have a majority of actual votes cast.

That being said, if that third-party (American – whatever) group gets into this race, all bets are off until I see who will be on the ballot and in which states.

saywhat?

April 24th, 2012
3:26 pm

I have to amend my last post. There IS value in winning the Republican “veepstakes”, but only for the right kind of person. The kind of person I am thinking of would be a classless, shameless, media wh0re willing to shed any remnant of integrity or dignity they may have once had in pursuit of the almighty dollar, perhaps a lucrative contract with Fox “News”? ( Reminds one of the last repub Veep candidate, no?)

AmVet

April 24th, 2012
3:30 pm

“…is that this election will be decided by less than 20 electoral votes, and likely less than 10.”

Huge LOL at the petulant, oft-banned, bookie’s wet-dream.

Intrade is waiting on him and his big bucks.

JDW

April 24th, 2012
3:39 pm

@Tiberious…”because unbiased, logical, political commentary ain’t it.”

Now see that’s what started this whole thing…the spin of neck-and-neck when unsupported by facts…
As for Fox’s poll…too old to make the cut…

OH BTW…a “low single digit lead” is still…well just that a LEAD.

Ernest T. Bass

April 24th, 2012
3:40 pm

Palin! Palin! Palin! Palin! Palin!

DannyX

April 24th, 2012
3:40 pm

“Huge LOL at the petulant, oft-banned, bookie’s wet-dream.”

It looks like another pretty easy win for Obama. Real Clear Politics electoral map shows Obama clobbering Romney right now. Looks like an Obama landslide.

Now true, Romney could turn out to be the next Ronald Reagan, I just don’t think Romney has time for a personality transplant.

JDW

April 24th, 2012
3:47 pm

@Tiberious…BYW since you do so love to toss out the state-by-state point…

Real Clear Politics has Obama leading the EV race 227 to 170.

Then if you did a bit further you find that Obama leads in 9 of the “toss up” states by larger that the margin of error representing another 105 EV’s.

Why that would be 227+105=332

I believe that also qualifies as a LEAD and doesn’t even leave room for any neck-to-neck spin.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

md

April 24th, 2012
3:48 pm

“though he won the Mass. governorship by being who he really is – a moderate.

And for that reason, the independents and centrists are likely not going to vote for him in big enough numbers to carry the day, as it is.”

Now Am, that makes no sense what so ever. Being a moderate would have the opposite effect on the centrists……they should vote for him in huge numbers……

Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)

April 24th, 2012
3:53 pm

DannyX: How is [Romney] going to pay for the Bush tax cuts, trillion dollar wars, socialist Medicaid Part D, and his big government Dept of Homeland Security?
———-

Not to mention the trillion-dollar cost overrun in Obozocare that we just learned about.

Yes, he’s inheriting a huge mess from Obozo. It’ll be like eating an elephant–one bite at a time.

America’s survival depends on cleaning up after Obozo, an incompetent who pooped his pants when the real work started.

saywhat?

April 24th, 2012
3:54 pm

md- “Being a moderate would have the opposite effect on the centrists……they should vote for him in huge numbers……”
___________________________________
True, if he were still just a moderate, and not a moderate guilty of epic pandering to the far right.

md

April 24th, 2012
4:05 pm

“True, if he were still just a moderate, and not a moderate guilty of epic pandering to the far right.”

And there’s the choice……the above or pandering to the far left.

The religious way out theres scare me much less than what the far left has to offer.

Hillbilly D

April 24th, 2012
4:28 pm

This is total unrelated but it’ll probably become a topic of discussion, soon.

http://www.ajc.com/news/nation-world/feds-make-1st-arrest-1425053.html

I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...

April 24th, 2012
4:30 pm

Hairy Reed for the all Mormon ticket!

Jefferson

April 24th, 2012
4:47 pm

I think anyone can win, but we will find out who really “knows it all” in the end. Then the crying and whining can begin.

hsn

April 24th, 2012
4:50 pm

Governor “Ultra Sound” McDonald is available :)

Jefferson

April 24th, 2012
4:52 pm

Marco could be called an anchor baby, right wrong or indifferent.

MarkV

April 24th, 2012
4:55 pm

Who is missing on the Kyle’s (and Dusty’s) Republican VP sweepstakes list is someone who would give us a good dose of laughs in the campaign. Somebody like Dan Quayle or Sarah Palin. Come on, Republicans, you can do better!

Kyle Wingfield

April 24th, 2012
5:00 pm

MarkV: Biden should be enough for any one campaign.

saywhat?

April 24th, 2012
5:04 pm

md- there is no far left in the US, at least not one that gets pandered to by anybody, and certainly not by the current President. Because contrary to wingnut beliefs, a progressive income tax, universal healthcare, responsible regulation, consumer protection laws, environmental protection etc are not “far left” ideas. There are examples of all of the above originating from the historic right. Todays right wing has moved so much further to the right, that they don’t even consider former “right wing” ideas as even mainstrean any more, but as “extreme left”.

On the other hand, union busting, creationism taught in public schools, climate change denial, regressive taxation, trickle down economics, the elimination of the social safety net, etc ARE far right wing ideological wet dreams, not at all in the mainstream.

Independents know this and will vote accordingly.

Jefferson

April 24th, 2012
5:12 pm

Kyle, your lack of respect for VP Biden is noted.

MarkV

April 24th, 2012
5:17 pm

Kyle Wingfield @5:00 pm

We need one on each side.

Dusty

April 24th, 2012
5:36 pm

PLease please,

the Green Party has already given us enough political laughs to last a lifetime. The only thing left is hysterics.

Hillbilly D

April 24th, 2012
6:04 pm

Left and right is like most everything else, it’s in the eye of the beholder.

Rafe Hollister

April 24th, 2012
6:13 pm

Regarding polls. It seems to me that the different organizations use the polls to push public opinion. They do this with how the polls are structured. The CNN poll the other week that showed Romney trailing by about 9, when analyzed did not include very many GOP voters. They also get the results they want by using registered voters or just whomever answers the phone. Rasmussen uses likely voters.

Rasmussen has been very accurate in spite of what the Dems think. The other polls always seem to do a more accurate job as the election gets close. I guess they do not want to lose their credibility. You get the best polls in the last one before the election.

@@

April 24th, 2012
6:21 pm

Left and right is like most everything else, it’s in the eye of the beholder.

Only thing in my eye is their finger.

I’m lookin’ forward to the next generation of GOP politicians. They won’t be dropping dead anytime soon. They actually care about the direction this country is headed in. They’ve got young children whose future is at risk.

Rafe Hollister

April 24th, 2012
6:21 pm

md
Regarding student loans. Obviously the Dems are trying to make hay about the interest rate going up, if Congress doesn’t act. What they don’t tell you is that Oblamer skipped the last vote on setting the student loan rate and that they reduced them for a specific time, so that the renewal would come up during an election year. This is a problem they created for political reasons.

I wish Romney would do an ad telling the students not to worry about the interest rate, that is not what is killing them. It is the rate of growth of tuition. The colleges just keep raising it without limits and with the Oblamer inflation of printing money, they will continue to rise at a tremendous rate. Romney needs to turn it around and say they will never get ahead as long as this hidden inflation that Oblamer is using to run the economy continues, they are swimming up stream.

@@

April 24th, 2012
6:21 pm

whose futures are at risk.

IHB

td

April 24th, 2012
6:27 pm

Steve

April 24th, 2012
2:37 pm

“td – spouting more lies? Do you realize that gas prices were down due to an economic collapse at that time?”

“Do you know the real data of the continued job growth since the Great Bush recession?” There is currently 1 million less jobs in the country today then the day Obama took office. That is a fact.

“What do you think caused the great Bush recession anyhow?”

Community reinvestment act and the combination of when the Bush Treasury Sec went in 2006 before congress and warned them something must be done Frank and Dodd accused him of being a racist
Deregulation of the mortgage industry and greed. And our debt? Starved govt via the lowest taxes in our lifetimes along with incredible spending, which includes the bloated military industrial complex (big govt).

Do you wingnuts only know lies?

Lil' Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)

April 24th, 2012
6:32 pm

Starved government…low taxes…incredible spending…bloated military…

You’d think that a real messiah could have done something about one or two of those in three-plus years.

Obozo: Fail.

MarkV

April 24th, 2012
6:32 pm

“Oblamer inflation of printing money..”

Inflation rates 2012: Jan 2.93%; Feb: 2.87%; March: 2.65%

2008 AVG: 3.85%

md

April 24th, 2012
6:36 pm

“Because contrary to wingnut beliefs, a progressive income tax, universal healthcare, responsible regulation, consumer protection laws, environmental protection etc are not “far left” ideas. ”

Last I checked, we have always had a “progresive” tax……yet now, the left wants to make it more progressive. We ALL got tax cuts, but the folks on the left have somehow managed to overlook that little diddy.

Consumer protection…..Ha. The recent credit card bill as an example, only protected the ones that weren’t paying their bills…….I hope you’ve noticed that everybody’s rates are now higher. I’ll do without that kind of protection thank you very much.

Healthcare subsidies for folks making a paltry 88k a year…..need I say more??

Those items in moderation may be tolerable, when pushed to the extreme like the left has done, it becomes dangerous.

tiberius your lightning rod of hate!

April 24th, 2012
6:40 pm

I love it when people like JDW post poll information, and when told how useless it is (as I pointed out in my points 3 and 4 to him), he still splutters ” but, but, but. . . We’re still winning!”

Winning in a meaningless poll that won’t have any meaning for 6 months is like proclaiming you’re the tallest of the midgets – neither gets you into the pros.

md

April 24th, 2012
6:44 pm

“Winning in a meaningless poll that won’t have any meaning for 6 months is like proclaiming you’re the tallest of the midgets – neither gets you into the pros.”

Spud Webb may disagree with that comparison :)

Tiberius - Banned by Bookman and proud of it!

April 24th, 2012
6:49 pm

Butch it up, libs. You’re embarrassing yourselves today.

Rafe Hollister

April 24th, 2012
7:32 pm

MarkV

If only those inflation rates were actually true! Have you been to the grocery store lately or maybe the gas station. Oh, I believe I read that food and gas were eliminated from the consumer price index because they were too volatile. It is like the unemployment rate, another bogus number.

If there is no inflation causing tuition to rise, then the universities and colleges are greedy. Why has the Great Equalizer not taken them to task for their “windfall profit”. He has done nothing to control tuition, has not even asked the schools to hold it down. Professors salaries continue to rise, while the average person struggles to keep their job. Is that fair? All the while, he panders for the student vote, by trying to play Santa Claus with taxpayer money. If he was honest, he would point out that many of them are running up a great deal of debt and probably have a poor chance of getting a job that will allow them to pay back the debt.

Tiberius - Banned by Bookman and proud of it!

April 24th, 2012
7:40 pm

Rafe, maybe that liberal icon Elizabeth Warren could tell us how she feels about earning a 6 figure part-time teaching salary and how that helps all those shiny young faces pay for the college education.

Oh yeah. It’s bad to be in the 1%, unless it’s you. : roll:

@@

April 24th, 2012
7:40 pm

More universities charging more tuition for harder majors

A growing number of public universities are charging higher tuition for math, science and business programs, which they argue cost more to teach — and can earn grads higher-paying jobs.–USAToday

Aren’t we supposed to be encouraging math and science majors? Seems like higher tuition would serve to discourage.

Why should potential salaries dictate tuition costs?

Rafe Hollister

April 24th, 2012
7:42 pm

From New York Post
Fortunately, the folks at the American Institute of Economic Research have resurrected the idea. Their Everyday Price Index (EPI) strips away the cost of big-ticket items, like homes and cars, and looks at the cost of things that consumers encounter on a daily or monthly basis, such as groceries, prescription medicine, and telephone and cable bills. By that measure, the Everyday Price Index shows inflation galloping ahead at an 8.1 percent annual rate, a reading that would put the current Misery Index at a Carter-like 16.4 percent — not a good recipe for re-election.
Averaging the CPI and the EPI gives us a rate of 5.6 percent, a number most New Yorkers, and probably most Americans, would consider on the mark.
By that estimate, the Obama Misery Index comes in at 13.9 percent, higher than that of any president up for re-election since Carter in 1980, but not too far above the 12.4 percent misery reading when Ronald Reagan ran in 1984.

Read more: http://www.nypost.com/p/news/national/price_clubbed_in_jRGGyS9wKfAKjxAs0bkVnO#ixzz1t0JpiGLp

Learned something here, home prices are included in the Consumer Price Index. They way they are falling I am surprised that the government inflation index is above zero.

Rafe Hollister

April 24th, 2012
7:50 pm

Tiberius
Elizabeth Warren, is one of the leading faces of “progressivism” in America today. Just like in the old Soviet Union, the party members, are not expected to live by the same rules as the proletarians. Proletarians of the world unite! (and work for the benefit of the party leaders)

md

April 24th, 2012
7:55 pm

As I said yesterday, matters not if the student loan rate is 3.4 or 6.8……what the kids should be looking at is the Fed funds rate and the bonds rates. Cost to borrow is around .25 percent…..which means our own gov’t is making money off the kids. And they gleefully pay it back like they are getting a good deal. In reality, we are raising a bunch of clueless individuals that have no idea how the system works.

Kind of like Mary the other day…….not paying attention to the fact that the private sector must make enough money to sustain itself and enough money to sustain the parasitic gov’t…….

I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...

April 24th, 2012
7:57 pm

“It’s still about the economy …and we’re not stupid,” Romney will say.

He must not be speaking on behalf of any libs, just sayin…

@@

April 24th, 2012
8:18 pm

Most Californians would be surprised to learn that 100 percent of education’s share of the tax increase proposed by Governor Jerry Brown will go to pensions instead of classrooms. But that would be no surprise to longtime observers of the California State Teachers’ Retirement System, which administers teacher pensions.–Bloomberg

MarkV

April 24th, 2012
8:38 pm

Isn’t it wonderful, when you can make up an index that shows what you want to show, rather than using what has been used for years?

Tiberius - Banned by Bookman and proud of it!

April 24th, 2012
8:41 pm

MarkV, the Misery Index has been around for years, regardless of who resides in the White House. Sorry to burst your uninformed bubble.

Michael H. Smith

April 24th, 2012
8:46 pm

“While I’m here: how come Cubans have a no return policy when they reach shore but Haitians don’t?”

The policy is now known as “wet foot” “dry foot”. Essentially a carry over from the cold war period the Cuban Adjustment Act of 1966 was an offer of political asylum to Cuban who fled Cuba.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wet_feet,_dry_feet_policy

The U.S. never had a national security interest to protect or political reason to pursue in offering fleeing Haitians such an asylum is the only tangible policy difference between Cuba and Haiti.

Michael H. Smith

April 24th, 2012
8:54 pm

Isn’t it wonderful, when you can make up an index that shows what you want to show, rather than using what has been used for years?

Yeah, I kinda(sic) noticed that myself, since the obumer administration departed from assessing the unemployment rate as it has always been done in the past FOR YEARS, just to “cook the books” and present the more favorable numbers the obumer administration wants reported! :lol:

I look the U6 numbers for accounting purposes and Obumer’s numbers for the propaganda.

Michael H. Smith

April 24th, 2012
9:00 pm

Gas prices are down again. I guess you wingnuts can now praise Obama for that since you blamed him for them going up last month?

Yeah and I did thank and advise obumer to continue to read Kyle’s blog for more instructions now that odumbo did what I said he should do back when he was telling us that their was nothing he could do! :lol:

Michael H. Smith

April 24th, 2012
9:11 pm

As I said yesterday, matters not if the student loan rate is 3.4 or 6.8……what the kids should be looking at is the Fed funds rate and the bonds rates.

As I said yesterday and the days before what everyone and these kids should look at are those Professors salaries and the tuition costs that have risen exponentially.

Why Does College Cost So Much?

At this time of year many rising high school seniors are visiting college campuses, trying to determine which schools interest them. Their parents are busy figuring out what they will have to pay.

Here are three salient facts about tuition and fees. Over the last 30 years, the average sticker price at public and private American universities has accelerated upward. Since 1981 the list price level of tuition and fees has risen sixfold while the consumer price index has only increased two-and-a-half times. This fact is well-known, and it fuels much of the talk about a crisis in higher education.

The other two facts are less well known. The average family bill for a college education has been increasing faster than the overall inflation rate for much of the past century, so rising inflation-adjusted college tuition is not a new issue. And lastly, higher education is not alone. There is a set of important industries with price behavior that is remarkably similar to what college students and their families have experienced.

http://www.forbes.com/2010/08/01/rising-cost-education-opinions-best-colleges-10-feldman-archibald.html

Michael H. Smith

April 24th, 2012
9:13 pm

Too many soft ball from the leftwingers tonight.

Good evening to all.

moonbat betty

April 24th, 2012
9:33 pm

Rubio or Rice works.

moonbat betty

April 24th, 2012
9:35 pm

@@

April 24th, 2012
10:15 pm

moonbat betty:

Are you hitting on me with that video?

J/K

Hello and goodnight.

JDW

April 24th, 2012
10:26 pm

@Tiberius…”I love it when people like JDW post poll information, and when told how useless it is (as I pointed out in my points 3 and 4 to him), he still splutters ” but, but, but.. . We’re still winning!””

Following the time honored tradition of Republican’s everywhere I see…when one can’t follow the conversation take it out of context and attack with irrelevant drivel. Try reading the whole thread and see if you can actually process the point.

Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!

April 24th, 2012
11:01 pm

JDW, if you still wish to point out how your Messiah s “winning” in a series of meaningless polls, all of which show a race defined by the very essence of “neck-and-neck”, then if that’ll make you happy, son, by all means continue your nonsense.

But it IS a neck-and-neck race, the polls ARE meaningless, you haven’t got a clue how to read them, and no one is winning with the current Disaster-in-Chief in the White House.

Real Athens

April 24th, 2012
11:29 pm

Did someone mention Huntsman as a “classic” VP pic? He’s seen the light.

http://news.yahoo.com/why-jon-huntsman-is-leaving-the-gop–not-because-they’re-communists-.html

MarkV

April 24th, 2012
11:35 pm

Rafe,

My point was that you wrote about printing money and inflation, and if we are to make judgments about the effect of some policy on inflation, we should use the accepted metric for inflation, rather than cherry picking data that fit our argument, such as the “Misery Index”. (I also never wrote that this was a new invention, but some people – not meaning you – cannot read). Some other organization may come up with still another index, showing things differently.

Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!

April 24th, 2012
11:45 pm

No, MarkV, you just used the rather specific words “rather than using what has been used for years”, meaning in English, “as opposed to something which HAS been used for years”, which of course, is the Misery Index.

For someone who won’t engage others in debate until all the “T”s are crossed and the “I”s are dotted, you might wish to be a bit more precise in your use of our native language here in the United States.

And in case you haven’t figured it out yet, YOU don’t get to set the terms for debating others. If you don’t like what they are using, Bookman’s is available to you right next door. They’ll just love you over there.

Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!

April 24th, 2012
11:56 pm

Real Athens, Huntsman was always a more moderate choice for President than he was conservative, however, that wasn’t the reason he didn’t go far in the 2012 campaign (and if Jeff Greenfield wasn’t in the tank for Democrats he’d know this).

Jon Huntsman was 100% boring to listen to, and a thoroughly uninspiring candidate. His level of excitement makes Mitt Romney look like Richard Simmons.

He’d make a good U.N Ambassador to a President Romney, or maybe even Secretary of State, but his ability to inspire people to follow his leadership is on par with PeeWee Herman’s.

Sr. Ella

April 25th, 2012
1:24 am

Kyle Wingfield
April 24th, 2012
2:34 pm
atlmom: McCain’s downfall started when he rushed back to Washington to try to deal with the financial crisis, in an attempt to look presidential, but he looked ineffective (at best — weak at worst) and never recovered.

But but but it was all Obama’s fault! How could the financial crisis happen when Obama wasn’t even president? schnirt

Joel Edge

April 25th, 2012
7:16 am

” and in my view it would be foolish to name a running mate this far out.”
That’s just silly. Research takes time, Kyle. The Democrats need time to drag out every offended person and claim to injury before the election. Not to mention knowing which state the VP candidate will be from, gives ample time commit funds for more voter fraud.
How unreasonable of you.

JDW

April 25th, 2012
7:28 am

@Tiberius…”no one is winning with the current Disaster-in-Chief in the White House.”

Many would beg to differ. Just compare now to when he took office…

Economic Growth then -6% now +2%
Job Growth then -700K a month now +150K a month
Stock Market then Dow 7900 now Dow 13,000

Looks like progress to me.

@@

April 25th, 2012
7:47 am

I saw Huntsman as more “in touch” with China than America. Besides, he’s as wealthy as Romney. Democrats won’t stand for such nonsense.

SCHNIRT!

Just saying..

April 25th, 2012
8:32 am

Are not poll favorites Donald, Herman, Rick Perry, Michelle ready to be President?

But Rubio would be fine. It’s always lovely when the nation likes a candidate better than the people in his home state. A near Sarah in waiting.

Progressive Humanist

April 25th, 2012
8:45 am

McDonnell wants it, as he’s term limited, will be out of a job soon, and knows the VP is the highest profile job he’ll ever have a chance at. The rest of the field would be very hesitant about accepting the slot; they don’t want to be the next Sarah Palin. They all know that the odds are that Obama will be reelected, and they feel they’ll be in better shape in 2016, maybe even with a shot to be on top of the ticket then, which probably won’t happen if they’re the VP candidate on the losing side this time around.

And btw, Kyle’s portrayal of the status of the race is way off. National polls don’t mean a whole lot, not only because it’s so far out, as Kyle suggests, but because presidents are not elected via popular vote, which is what national polls measure. Romney has a large lead in red states, which evens out the popular vote and makes it look close, but the electoral college map is almost insurmountable for him at this time. Things could change drastically, but anyone who thinks this race is even now doesn’t understand the electoral map well enough.

Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!

April 25th, 2012
8:46 am

JDW, Many would wonder just what you’re smoking . .

Dropping Out. Since Obama was sworn in about 3 million people have dropped out of the jobs market. These people are no longer even bothering to look for a job. If they were still in the market – still hopeful – the unemployment rate would be about 10.8%.

Economic Growth after Great Depression. In 1934, 35 and 36 our economy growed at 11%, 9% and 13%. Economic growth in 2010 was 3%. In 2011 it was 1.7%. This year we’re running between 2 and 3%.

Ethnic Jobless Rates. For young workers 20 to 24 the unemployment rate is 13%. For Hispanic teenagers it’s 30.5%. For black teenagers it’s 37.9%.

Private Sector Hiring. Through June of 2011 private sector hiring was 10 times slower after the passage of ObamaCare than it was in the 16 months prior to ObamaCare.

New Businesses. We need 1 million new businesses every year to sustain growth. We’re running about 400,000 right now.

Layoffs and Hiring. In the first months of 2012 layoffs have risen 18% from a year ago. Hiring plans have dropped 82%.

Oh, and the stock market hasn’t been an accurate indicator of economic health in about 30 years, so quoting that figure is as meaningless as using polls six months out from an election to determine who is “winning”.

Just saying..

April 25th, 2012
9:16 am

“Oh, and the stock market hasn’t been an accurate indicator of economic health in about 30 years, so quoting that figure is as meaningless as using polls six months out from an election to determine who is ‘winning’.”

Which provides the basis for the figures being reported on every mass media evening newscast. Because the broadcast editors and audience agree that reporting them is “meaningless”.

MarkV

April 25th, 2012
9:19 am

Tiberius @11:45 pm: “No, MarkV, you just used the rather specific words “rather than using what has been used for years”, meaning in English, “as opposed to something which HAS been used for years”, which of course, is the Misery Index.”

Tiberius,

I have never tried to “set the terms for debating others,” and it is no business of yours to tell me to go to another blog.

I was not even talking about the Misery Index when I made the comment “rather than using what has been used for years.” The “Misery index” is not only a much more recent metric than CPI, it is not even a metric for inflation. You can comment whatever you wish, but when you fail to understand the issue that is being discussed, you are again just making a fool of yourself.

Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!

April 25th, 2012
9:33 am

“Which provides the basis for the figures being reported on every mass media evening newscast. Because the broadcast editors and audience agree that reporting them is “meaningless”.”

Just saying, there is a HUGE difference between the value of individual stocks and their collective health of the stock market vs.the health of the economy. But you should already know that.

When stocks were used as LONG-TERM investment planks, they were a far better gauge of the economic health of the nation. Since the days of rampant speculation and massive investment of retirement funds into stocks and securities, the market has become more of a Las Vegas-style gambling hall (with the associated results, btw) rewarding trading houses more than providing any real gauge of this nation’s overall economic health.

And just so you know, I’ve been saying this for over 20 years, so it has nothing to do with your precious Obama.

Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!

April 25th, 2012
9:40 am

“I have never tried to “set the terms for debating others,” and it is no business of yours to tell me to go to another blog.”

Butch it up, MarkV. First, I don’t “tell” anyone to go over to Bookman’s; I merely suggest that those who are unwilling to engage in robust debate will find a more nurturing and accepting home over there. Kyle is the only one on this blog who can “tell” anyone to head out of here.

And of course you try to set the terms before you debate others. You won’t even engage certain people who respond to your nonsense with facts. You won’t address the gist of someone’s post if they use the term “socialist” because you feel they don’t know the precise meaning of the word.

You’ve become the epitome of the “drive-by” blogger; MarkV. Drop in, toss a bomb, and scurry out before people can engage you. You’re everything that is wrong with political discourse in 2012 America.

Just saying..

April 25th, 2012
10:00 am

Tib-
I agree that today’s US stock market is craps with loaded dice.
President Obama is not precious to me. I look at him the same way so many GOP voters look at Mitt: with caution.
My point is not about the actual value of stock market indexes or how long you’ve held a certain view about them. My point is the figures must not be “meaningless” to the majority of Americans.

And obviously, that would not be the only instance where people put great stock in indicators that are really meaningless. Hence politics. And Sarah. And now, Marco.

MarkV

April 25th, 2012
10:02 am

Tiberius @9:40 am

It is none of your business even to suggest to anybody to go to another blog. It is entirely up to everybody whether to engage in a debate with somebody else, and especially not to engage with somebody who is an arrogant bully. Considering what you have been doing here, what you call a “robust debate” is just trading of insults.

There is no point debating people who use labels such as “socialist, Marxist and communist” instead of arguments. I could not care less if you disagree with that.

Joe the Prophet

April 25th, 2012
10:02 am

So the Ryan budget cuts taxes on the wealthy AND raises the deficit to do so…….It counts on “GROWTH”……So what happens if “GROWTH” doesn’t occur….!?!?!? SOCIALISM….that’s what happens….!!!!

Joe the Prophet

April 25th, 2012
10:06 am

The fundamental mistake here is that low-taxes lead. That has only happened in 10 years out of the last 100….from 1980 to 1990…..The rest of the time, higher taxes have led to growth and low taxes have led to recession and depression……

Despite your love of millionares and Miltion Friedman…if the low-tax/growth experiment fails….we are headed to Socialism….

Joe the Prophet

April 25th, 2012
10:07 am

The fundamental mistake here is that low taxes lead to growth….

Joe the Prophet

April 25th, 2012
10:08 am

and it’s 15 years out of the last 100….1975-1990…..

Joe the Prophet

April 25th, 2012
10:10 am

Romney/Ryan…..the “all in” ticket on trickle down economics…….but if it don’t work we’re in BIG trouble…..!!!!!

Tiberius - Banned from Bookman's and proud of it!

April 25th, 2012
10:56 am

MarkV confuses “arrogant bully” with “person who provides factual arguments”. :lol:

Jack

April 25th, 2012
11:42 am

Whoever Romney picks, his choice needs to be thoroughly vetted…no skeletons.

Jack

April 25th, 2012
11:44 am

The VP needs some extra heavy-duty vetting.

Jack

April 25th, 2012
11:44 am

Just saying..

April 25th, 2012
1:53 pm

Newt: The country throwing dirt on his grave, and he needs a week to try to swap his endorsement for some crumb from Romney’s peeps.
Him and Jason, arising from every dark corner, just when we think we’re safe.

HDB

April 26th, 2012
8:14 am

Lil’ Barry Bailout (Revised Downward)

April 24th, 2012
12:56 pm
“The later Republican Presidents, all deft politicians with loads of state and national political victories, were the worst Presidents in memory.
———

Not a one got themselves impeached, ran trillion-dollar deficits, or allowed the mullahs to hold our people hostage for more than a year.”

What Republican got the nation into a constitutional crisis and articles of impeachement were at the ready FORCING him to resign?? (Nixon..the ONLY President to resign from office..to avoid JAIL!) What Republican’s economic policy took the nation into DEPRESSION? (Hoover) What Republicans presided over the TWO biggest political scandals in history? (Harding – Teapot Dome & Nixon – Watergate)…….

Barry….your LACK of history knowledge shows!!