Have Mexicans quit coming to the U.S. illegally?
Could a combination of tougher immigration laws, our stagnant economy and improving prospects at home mean illegal immigration to the U.S. from Mexico is at a standstill? That’s what the Christian Science Monitor reports in a fascinating article about Mexicans who came to the U.S. illegally and have now returned home.
The article details some anecdotal examples — including a number of references to Georgia — and some interesting descriptions of the challenges for these returnees. But what really caught my eye was that there are data to back up those personal stories:
At the macroeconomic level, Douglas Massey, founder of the Mexican Migration Project at Princeton University, has documented what he calls “net zero” migration. The population of undocumented immigrants in the US fell from 12 million to approximately 11 million during the height of the financial crisis (2008-09), he says. And since then, Mexicans without documents aren’t migrating at rates to replace the loss, creating a net zero balance for the first time in 50 years.
Mexican census and household surveys analyzed by [demographer Agustin] Escobar, who is with the Binational Study on Mexican Migration, suggest migrants leaving Mexico fell from more than a million in 2005 to 368,000 in 2010.
Birth rates in Mexico are down sharply and economic growth has been hot, contributing to the improved ability for Mexicans to better their lot in life at home rather than across the Rio Grande. Michael Barone suggests economic growth in Mexico may be tied more closely to that of Texas, which has had a relatively strong economy through the downturn, rather than America as a whole. If it’s true that economic growth in Texas has resulted in economic growth in Mexico, there could be a win-win: Prosperity could increase in the years to come both in the U.S. and in Mexico without re-creating the impetus for illegal immigration and the problems that come with it.
Of course, Mexico is not the only country from which people come here illegally, so this doesn’t mean the problem is completely solved. But it is by all accounts the largest country of origin for illegals. And if there’s hope in Mexico, there’s no reason the same improvements couldn’t emerge in other parts of Latin America. So, if these trends prove true and durable, it could mean an enormous change in the immigration dynamic.
That would be true both on the ground, in the effect on immigrants and Americans, and in politics. If we were to solve the problem of new illegal immigration, it would completely change the political conversation about how to deal with those already here and how political parties engage Hispanics — not all of whom, of course, were or care foremost about illegal immigrants.
– By Kyle Wingfield
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93 comments Add your comment
saywhat?
April 11th, 2012
1:42 pm
“intelligent”
Dusty
April 11th, 2012
1:52 pm
Carlosgvv,
You asked, “what do we do with the millions (of illegals) already here?”
Why don’t you ask the president and the Dem controlled senate of the USA who are supposed to be leading us? Remember them? They should be insisting that the immigration laws of our country are to be enforced instead of suing those who enforce them. You can’t move forwards and backwards at the same time.
Dusty
April 11th, 2012
2:09 pm
Say what
Deporting felons is fine but the law states without exception “illegal”. Do you advocate partial compliance with the laws we establish?
It is a first step.. But I don’t think that deporting only “felons” does what the law intended. There’s too much at stake for that and too many laws to which we can partially comply as a good effort..
@@
April 11th, 2012
2:13 pm
saywhat:
Felons?
Programs such as Secure Communities, which puts the fingerprints taken by local police through DHS databases to net undocumented immigrants, are designed to put criminals in deportation proceedings, immigration officials say. But they also net a number of innocent people, such as Bolanos, because police fingerprint people who may never be charged with a crime or convicted. About 25 percent of immigrants who are detained under the program have not been convicted with a crime, according to data released by ICE and analyzed last week by a coalition of critics of the program.
The program has expanded rapidly under the Obama administration, even against the will of local law enforcements and city officials. Despite initially calling Secure Communities a voluntary, “opt-in” program, Homeland Security Officials announced in October communities could not exempt themselves from the program. More than 1,100 communities are already part of the program, and DHS plans to expand Secure Communities nationwide by 2013.
MarkV
April 11th, 2012
2:21 pm
Dusty @12:07 pm
Nice post.
Dusty @12:35 pm: “What in the world would we do on this blog without liberals to give us big laughs?”
It feels great to be appreciated.
“I tell you, liberals are comedians.”
Hmm , isthat a compliment or an insult?
“Strange they neveer mention the “jokes” Obama is pulling on us, like “free” healthcare. Now that’s a laugh!”
How did I miss that one? I never heard Obama promising free healthcare.
DannyX
April 11th, 2012
2:21 pm
“The Obama administration had deported about 1.06 million as of September 12, 2011 against 1.57 million in Bush’s two full presidential terms.”
Dusty it sounds like more than just felons are being deported.
Georgia illegal immigrants are headed to Texas where they can partake in the American dream, as in Dream Act, don’t you just love those Republicans in Texas.
timbo
April 11th, 2012
2:26 pm
Kyle,
Can you walk down the hall and beat the ever loving dog squeeze out of Jay Bookman? Seems he takes pleasure in using his bully pulpit as blog administrator to ridicule others that do not share his point of view in front of his loyal dog washers on his blog. Making comments to others is fine, but don’t lie about what was posted. I had very little respect for him before, none now.
Thanks.
Ernest T. Bass
April 11th, 2012
2:51 pm
Official: Charges to be filed in Martin shooting
That only took about 2 months.
Wanna guess how long it would have taken if it was a black man who had shot a white man and then claimed he was ” Standing his ground ” and that he felt threatened.
About 1.6 seconds.
wallbanger
April 11th, 2012
2:57 pm
Even rats leave a sinking ship. I wonder what Mexico will do when Americans start entering illegally because our economy is so messed up that they can’t make a living, and the money from the taxpayer has long since dried up. Oh wait, it has dried up. We owe China $15 trillion.
@@
April 11th, 2012
3:07 pm
I had very little respect for him before, none now.
Welcome to the club, timbo.
@@
April 11th, 2012
3:10 pm
What I find amusing is how liberals were screaming with Bush’s deportations.
I guess now that’s it’s Obama doing the deporting, all is well.
Observer
April 11th, 2012
3:18 pm
@Dusty @1:01 p.m.:
Actually, if the “invaders”, as you call them, turn out to be British, you might end up havin’ to learn English…
Just observin…
carlosgvv
April 11th, 2012
3:26 pm
Ernest T. Bass
About a week after Travon was shot, another young black man was gunned down. His name is Ervin Jefferson. He was unarmed and was shot by a black security guard. How long will it take Jesse Jackson and Al Shapton to come here and start demanding “justice for Ervin”?
Wade Hampton
April 11th, 2012
3:29 pm
It isn’t over until the Chief illegal alien is gone from 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
NOT to be replaced by the Mexican citizen Romney………………but a REAL American.
.
Ron Paul 2012.
BuckeyeInGa
April 11th, 2012
3:35 pm
carlosgvv
Has that family contacted Al Sharpton like Travon’s parents did? Are the circumstances the same? i.e. Sanford police wouldn’t release information to Travon’s parents…
BuckeyeInGa
April 11th, 2012
3:36 pm
And if there’s hope in Mexico, there’s no reason the same improvements couldn’t emerge in other parts of Latin America. So, if these trends prove true and durable, it could mean an enormous change in the immigration dynamic
–
I agree with this statement.
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
April 11th, 2012
4:42 pm
Hey, at least the Mexicans know where the jobs are at.
They’ll be back when obozo’s gone.
I Report (-: You Whine )-: mmm, mmmm, mmmmm! Just sayin...
April 11th, 2012
5:11 pm
According to the 2011 annual report on White House staff, female employees earned a median annual salary of $60,000, which was about 18 percent less than the median salary for male employees ($71,000).
Sounds like a war on women to me.
Skip
April 11th, 2012
5:13 pm
The rate in Mexico is about 5%, what would it be with the 12 million off the books cause they slipped over the boarder here?
April 11th, 2012
5:18 pm
If you are defending Al Sharpton, you have issues that can’t possibly be fixed without serious effort.
TruthBe
April 11th, 2012
5:20 pm
80 of the Top Communist in the Senate and in the Congress. Here’s the link and the evidence. CHECK IT OUT FOR YOURSELF.
http://commieblaster.com/progressives/index.html
MarkV
April 11th, 2012
5:59 pm
Dusty,
Can you still claim that the liberals are comedians? Check TruthBe @5:20 pm
retiredds
April 11th, 2012
6:15 pm
Dusty, If I recall correctly George Bush attempted to craft a substantive immigration policy but the conservative base screamed bloody murder because they interpreted it as amnesty, and that is anathema to the conservatives in the U.S. I submit that any meaningful immigration reform cannot take place in this country any more because it has become a political football that both sides can demonize the other with “ad nauseam”
Secondly, the last time I looked Texas was having to figure out how to close the $27 billion deficit gap (the State of Texas budgets bi-annually). Were they able to do that?
Also the bulk of Texas job growth was in service industries which pay at the lower end of the pay scale. Not much to brag about there.
Care to comment?
Hillbilly D
April 11th, 2012
6:41 pm
A European invasion of illegals!! But will they pick fruit and mix cement?
Actually I knew some crews of Russians and Poles who worked construction before the Big Meltdown. Don’t know that they were illegal or that they weren’t.
Kyle Wingfield
April 11th, 2012
6:56 pm
All: Comments will be going through moderation the rest of this evening. That’s because I’ve published a post upstairs about the murder charge against George Zimmerman in the killing of Trayvon Martin. I felt that comments on it needed to be moderated, but our publishing software doesn’t allow me to put just one post in moderation. So, this and all other posts will be affected until I remove the moderation tomorrow morning.
I apologize for any inconvenience and hope you’ll understand.
Not Blind
April 11th, 2012
7:20 pm
As for the illegals not coming across the border, I guess the 19 in the wrecked van didn’t get the memo. 9 dead, others hospitalized on the US taxpayer nickel.
Rafe Hollister
April 11th, 2012
8:00 pm
Moderation, hum
Well, one thing is for sure, if there is any credit to be given out for this improvement in illegal immigrants invading our country it should go to Mr. Amnesty, GW Bush.
Why, everything else that has happened in the last 3.5 years has been blamed on Bush, so it stands to reason that he is responsible for something good that has happened in that time period.
Sr. Ella
April 11th, 2012
8:03 pm
UGA 1999
April 11th, 2012
12:20 pm
At what point can the American people sue Obama for waisting our money on ObamaCare?
As soon as you learn the difference between waist and waste.
ld
April 11th, 2012
8:33 pm
Junior Samples:
“annex”?
No, but it looks like the leaders of the two nations might as well begin talks of a merger.
david c
April 11th, 2012
8:42 pm
Mexicans are going home to take the jobs moved from this country to theirs. That’s where my job went.
Dusty
April 11th, 2012
9:05 pm
Well, before I read the next moderation meltdown , I will answer a few lost questions wandering around here. Let’s see…
MarkV @2:21
Of course, all liberals are a lovely bunch of comedians.
But you wanted to know about ObamaCare being free. Haven’t you heard? It is to rescue those poor folks departing this world because of that terrible NI disease (i.e.No Insurance). Since po’ folks have no money, Obama’s healthcare must be free. And since we are all created free & equal in this country, all heathcare here is going to be free for all!. Perfectly logical, MarkV. That is why Obama did not explain those points. Glad you asked!
——————–
Observer @ 3:18
R U trying to insinuate that my English is not tres beau?
My “English” is pure South Carolinian with a touch of Navajo which I picked up out west. It is purely musical with even more enchantment since I watched Downton Abby. So beautiful! Control your envy!
———————-
retireddds@6:15
ah Texas, the lone star state of financial stability! Sure, some of their jobs are service jobs with low pay which is a lot better than no job with no pay.
As to their budget, they at least have one and will probably work out problems with the next one. When your state is just about economically stable, the future is a lot brighter. Of course, Washington may think of some way to change that stability, since they do not even like to hear that word. Perhaps they may sue Texas for being stable! Holder is mighty busy!
May I say Texans have the good sense to have a conservative governor which they wisely re-elected. So does Georgia and we are moving upward every day. You just can’t get a state run by Republicans and keep it down.
Thanks for listening. And now……….onward..
Liz
April 11th, 2012
9:11 pm
Oh my, what will farmers, and the carpet industry do?!!! Hire Americans?
MarkV
April 11th, 2012
10:48 pm
Dusty @9:05 pm
Dusty,
Sarcasm definitely is not one of your strengths.
Splavistic
April 11th, 2012
11:07 pm
You have President Obama to thank for that! Yet, another thing Obama had to do for Bush (incl. killing Osama, etc.)
Oblama
April 12th, 2012
12:11 am
Right! The Fed floods the market with $7,000,000,000 in an effort to prop up the economy and what do we get for SEVEN TRILLION? A stagnant job market (9 %+ unemployment) and basically a flat recovery. What comes next? Double digit inflation and $10 gas.This so called recovery was created by the Fed – not Oblama’s temp jobs program.
Reformed Rightie
April 12th, 2012
7:30 am
Obama-Biden 2012…no etch-a-sketch foolishness
Kyle Wingfield
April 12th, 2012
7:48 am
Comment moderation has been turned off. Thanks for your patience.
Don't Want Them & Sure Don't Need Them!
April 12th, 2012
8:43 am
We need to make Georgia the DEPORTATION STATION CAPITAL OF THE UNITED STATES! Tough quick enforcement of all laws regarding ILLEGAL ALIENS. There is nothing wrong with profiling….if they look like it, ask for their papers, if they can’t produce them detain them in a secure facility until they can be produced – if they cannot produce them – LOAD THEM UP ON A BUS OR A TRAIN AND SHIP THEM OUT OF OUR STATE! We don’t want them and we certainly don’t need them eating up our Tax Dollars, our Education Dollars, and CLOGGING up our Emergency Rooms!
GT
April 12th, 2012
8:51 am
It should be interesting when we have a healthier Mexico next door who has never gotten along with the US that well anyway. There are Mexicans that blame the drug problem they have in Mexico on the US who is the buyers that stir everything up. Then there is the immigration problem that showed our bigotry to Mexicans. Every Spanish speaking person was coded Mexican, like we did with Indians. I don’t see Mexico getting better helping our country, hope I am wrong.
Mike Tyson
April 12th, 2012
9:20 am
I think it’s a crime this Zimmerman hasn’t already been shot by now and I’m an expert on violence since I’m a convicted rapist. I mean if I approach someone in a violent manner with my fist they should throw down their gun and let me pummel them to death.
Steve
April 12th, 2012
9:25 am
Oh brother…another thread of lunacy.
j bills
April 12th, 2012
9:54 pm
LOL !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Juan
April 13th, 2012
3:08 pm
For the people talking about Rubio and the Hispanic vote: Mexicans are not fond of Cubans -at least not of Miami Cubans, Havana is different.
-A Mexican